Small Craft Advisory 10, NWS Buffalo, NY

827 
WHUS71 KBUF 311256
MWWBUF

URGENT - MARINE WEATHER MESSAGE
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BUFFALO NY
756 AM EST SUN JAN 31 2016

LEZ040-041-312100-
/O.CON.KBUF.SC.Y.0010.160131T2200Z-160201T1500Z/
LAKE ERIE NEARSHORE WATERS FROM RIPLEY TO DUNKIRK-
LAKE ERIE NEARSHORE WATERS FROM DUNKIRK TO BUFFALO-
756 AM EST SUN JAN 31 2016

...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY REMAINS IN EFFECT FROM 5 PM THIS
AFTERNOON TO 10 AM EST MONDAY...

* WINDS...SOUTHWEST 20 TO 25 KNOTS.

* WAVES...3 TO 6 FEET.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

A SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY MEANS THAT WIND SPEEDS OF 18 TO 33 KNOTS
AND/OR WAVES AVERAGING 4 FEET OR MORE ARE EXPECTED TO PRODUCE
HAZARDOUS WAVE CONDITIONS TO SMALL CRAFT. INEXPERIENCED
MARINERS... ESPECIALLY THOSE OPERATING SMALLER VESSELS... SHOULD
AVOID NAVIGATING IN THESE CONDITIONS.

&&

$$

LEZ020-LOZ030-312100-
/O.CON.KBUF.SC.Y.0010.160131T2200Z-160201T1000Z/
UPPER NIAGARA RIVER AND BUFFALO HARBOR-LOWER NIAGARA RIVER-
756 AM EST SUN JAN 31 2016

...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY REMAINS IN EFFECT FROM 5 PM THIS
AFTERNOON TO 5 AM EST MONDAY...

* WINDS...SOUTHWEST 15 TO 20 KNOTS.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

A SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY MEANS THAT WIND SPEEDS OF 18 TO 33 KNOTS
AND/OR WAVES AVERAGING 4 FEET OR MORE ARE EXPECTED TO PRODUCE
HAZARDOUS WAVE CONDITIONS TO SMALL CRAFT. INEXPERIENCED
MARINERS... ESPECIALLY THOSE OPERATING SMALLER VESSELS... SHOULD
AVOID NAVIGATING IN THESE CONDITIONS.

&&

$$

LOZ042-312100-
/O.CON.KBUF.SC.Y.0010.160201T0000Z-160201T2100Z/
LAKE ONTARIO NEARSHORE WATERS FROM THE NIAGARA RIVER TO HAMLIN
BEACH-
756 AM EST SUN JAN 31 2016

...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY REMAINS IN EFFECT FROM 7 PM THIS EVENING
TO 4 PM EST MONDAY...

* WINDS...SOUTHWEST 20 TO 25 KNOTS.

* WAVES...2 TO 4 FEET.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

A SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY MEANS THAT WIND SPEEDS OF 18 TO 33 KNOTS
AND/OR WAVES AVERAGING 4 FEET OR MORE ARE EXPECTED TO PRODUCE
HAZARDOUS WAVE CONDITIONS TO SMALL CRAFT. INEXPERIENCED
MARINERS... ESPECIALLY THOSE OPERATING SMALLER VESSELS... SHOULD
AVOID NAVIGATING IN THESE CONDITIONS.

&&

$$

LOZ043-312100-
/O.CON.KBUF.SC.Y.0010.160201T0000Z-160202T0300Z/
LAKE ONTARIO NEARSHORE WATERS FROM HAMLIN BEACH TO SODUS BAY-
756 AM EST SUN JAN 31 2016

...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY REMAINS IN EFFECT FROM 7 PM THIS EVENING
TO 10 PM EST MONDAY...

* WINDS...SOUTHWEST 15 TO 20 KNOTS.

* WAVES...3 TO 5 FEET.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

A SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY MEANS THAT WIND SPEEDS OF 18 TO 33 KNOTS
AND/OR WAVES AVERAGING 4 FEET OR MORE ARE EXPECTED TO PRODUCE
HAZARDOUS WAVE CONDITIONS TO SMALL CRAFT. INEXPERIENCED
MARINERS... ESPECIALLY THOSE OPERATING SMALLER VESSELS... SHOULD
AVOID NAVIGATING IN THESE CONDITIONS.

&&

$$

LOZ044-045-312100-
/O.CON.KBUF.SC.Y.0010.160201T0000Z-160202T0600Z/
LAKE ONTARIO NEARSHORE WATERS FROM SODUS BAY TO MEXICO BAY-
LAKE ONTARIO NEARSHORE WATERS FROM MEXICO BAY TO THE SAINT
LAWRENCE RIVER-
756 AM EST SUN JAN 31 2016

...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY REMAINS IN EFFECT FROM 7 PM THIS EVENING
TO 1 AM EST TUESDAY...

* WINDS...SOUTHWEST 15 TO 20 KNOTS.

* WAVES...3 TO 5 FEET.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

A SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY MEANS THAT WIND SPEEDS OF 18 TO 33 KNOTS
AND/OR WAVES AVERAGING 4 FEET OR MORE ARE EXPECTED TO PRODUCE
HAZARDOUS WAVE CONDITIONS TO SMALL CRAFT. INEXPERIENCED
MARINERS... ESPECIALLY THOSE OPERATING SMALLER VESSELS... SHOULD
AVOID NAVIGATING IN THESE CONDITIONS.

&&

$$

321 
WHUS71 KBUF 312107
MWWBUF

URGENT - MARINE WEATHER MESSAGE
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BUFFALO NY
407 PM EST SUN JAN 31 2016

LEZ040-041-010515-
/O.CON.KBUF.SC.Y.0010.160131T2200Z-160201T1500Z/
LAKE ERIE NEARSHORE WATERS FROM RIPLEY TO DUNKIRK-
LAKE ERIE NEARSHORE WATERS FROM DUNKIRK TO BUFFALO-
407 PM EST SUN JAN 31 2016

...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY REMAINS IN EFFECT UNTIL 10 AM EST
MONDAY...

* WINDS...SOUTHWEST 20 TO 25 KNOTS.

* WAVES...3 TO 5 FEET.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

A SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY MEANS THAT WIND SPEEDS OF 18 TO 33 KNOTS
AND/OR WAVES AVERAGING 4 FEET OR MORE ARE EXPECTED TO PRODUCE
HAZARDOUS WAVE CONDITIONS TO SMALL CRAFT. INEXPERIENCED
MARINERS... ESPECIALLY THOSE OPERATING SMALLER VESSELS... SHOULD
AVOID NAVIGATING IN THESE CONDITIONS.

&&

$$

LEZ020-LOZ030-010515-
/O.CON.KBUF.SC.Y.0010.160131T2200Z-160201T1000Z/
UPPER NIAGARA RIVER AND BUFFALO HARBOR-LOWER NIAGARA RIVER-
407 PM EST SUN JAN 31 2016

...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY REMAINS IN EFFECT UNTIL 5 AM EST MONDAY...

* WINDS...SOUTHWEST 15 TO 20 KNOTS.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

A SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY MEANS THAT WIND SPEEDS OF 18 TO 33 KNOTS
AND/OR WAVES AVERAGING 4 FEET OR MORE ARE EXPECTED TO PRODUCE
HAZARDOUS WAVE CONDITIONS TO SMALL CRAFT. INEXPERIENCED
MARINERS... ESPECIALLY THOSE OPERATING SMALLER VESSELS... SHOULD
AVOID NAVIGATING IN THESE CONDITIONS.

&&

$$

LOZ042-010515-
/O.CON.KBUF.SC.Y.0010.160201T0000Z-160201T2100Z/
LAKE ONTARIO NEARSHORE WATERS FROM THE NIAGARA RIVER TO HAMLIN
BEACH-
407 PM EST SUN JAN 31 2016

...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY REMAINS IN EFFECT UNTIL 4 PM EST MONDAY...

* WINDS...SOUTHWEST 20 TO 25 KNOTS.

* WAVES...3 TO 5 FEET.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

A SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY MEANS THAT WIND SPEEDS OF 18 TO 33 KNOTS
AND/OR WAVES AVERAGING 4 FEET OR MORE ARE EXPECTED TO PRODUCE
HAZARDOUS WAVE CONDITIONS TO SMALL CRAFT. INEXPERIENCED
MARINERS... ESPECIALLY THOSE OPERATING SMALLER VESSELS... SHOULD
AVOID NAVIGATING IN THESE CONDITIONS.

&&

$$

LOZ043-010515-
/O.CON.KBUF.SC.Y.0010.160201T0000Z-160202T0300Z/
LAKE ONTARIO NEARSHORE WATERS FROM HAMLIN BEACH TO SODUS BAY-
407 PM EST SUN JAN 31 2016

...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY REMAINS IN EFFECT UNTIL 10 PM EST
MONDAY...

* WINDS...WEST 15 TO 20 KNOTS.

* WAVES...3 TO 5 FEET.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

A SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY MEANS THAT WIND SPEEDS OF 18 TO 33 KNOTS
AND/OR WAVES AVERAGING 4 FEET OR MORE ARE EXPECTED TO PRODUCE
HAZARDOUS WAVE CONDITIONS TO SMALL CRAFT. INEXPERIENCED
MARINERS... ESPECIALLY THOSE OPERATING SMALLER VESSELS... SHOULD
AVOID NAVIGATING IN THESE CONDITIONS.

&&

$$

LOZ044-045-010515-
/O.CON.KBUF.SC.Y.0010.160201T0000Z-160202T0600Z/
LAKE ONTARIO NEARSHORE WATERS FROM SODUS BAY TO MEXICO BAY-
LAKE ONTARIO NEARSHORE WATERS FROM MEXICO BAY TO THE SAINT
LAWRENCE RIVER-
407 PM EST SUN JAN 31 2016

...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY REMAINS IN EFFECT UNTIL 1 AM EST
TUESDAY...

* WINDS...SOUTHWEST 15 TO 20 KNOTS.

* WAVES...3 TO 5 FEET.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

A SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY MEANS THAT WIND SPEEDS OF 18 TO 33 KNOTS
AND/OR WAVES AVERAGING 4 FEET OR MORE ARE EXPECTED TO PRODUCE
HAZARDOUS WAVE CONDITIONS TO SMALL CRAFT. INEXPERIENCED
MARINERS... ESPECIALLY THOSE OPERATING SMALLER VESSELS... SHOULD
AVOID NAVIGATING IN THESE CONDITIONS.

&&

$$

SMITH

881 
WHUS71 KBUF 010238
MWWBUF

URGENT - MARINE WEATHER MESSAGE
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BUFFALO NY
938 PM EST SUN JAN 31 2016

LEZ040-041-011045-
/O.CON.KBUF.SC.Y.0010.000000T0000Z-160201T1500Z/
LAKE ERIE NEARSHORE WATERS FROM RIPLEY TO DUNKIRK-
LAKE ERIE NEARSHORE WATERS FROM DUNKIRK TO BUFFALO-
938 PM EST SUN JAN 31 2016

...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY REMAINS IN EFFECT UNTIL 10 AM EST
MONDAY...

* WINDS...SOUTHWEST 15 TO 20 KNOTS.

* WAVES...3 TO 5 FEET.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

A SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY MEANS THAT WIND SPEEDS OF 18 TO 33 KNOTS
AND/OR WAVES AVERAGING 4 FEET OR MORE ARE EXPECTED TO PRODUCE
HAZARDOUS WAVE CONDITIONS TO SMALL CRAFT. INEXPERIENCED
MARINERS... ESPECIALLY THOSE OPERATING SMALLER VESSELS... SHOULD
AVOID NAVIGATING IN THESE CONDITIONS.

&&

$$

LEZ020-LOZ030-011000-
/O.CON.KBUF.SC.Y.0010.000000T0000Z-160201T1000Z/
UPPER NIAGARA RIVER AND BUFFALO HARBOR-LOWER NIAGARA RIVER-
938 PM EST SUN JAN 31 2016

...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY REMAINS IN EFFECT UNTIL 5 AM EST MONDAY...

* WINDS...SOUTHWEST 15 TO 20 KNOTS.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

A SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY MEANS THAT WIND SPEEDS OF 18 TO 33 KNOTS
AND/OR WAVES AVERAGING 4 FEET OR MORE ARE EXPECTED TO PRODUCE
HAZARDOUS WAVE CONDITIONS TO SMALL CRAFT. INEXPERIENCED
MARINERS... ESPECIALLY THOSE OPERATING SMALLER VESSELS... SHOULD
AVOID NAVIGATING IN THESE CONDITIONS.

&&

$$

LOZ042-011045-
/O.CON.KBUF.SC.Y.0010.000000T0000Z-160201T2100Z/
LAKE ONTARIO NEARSHORE WATERS FROM THE NIAGARA RIVER TO HAMLIN
BEACH-
938 PM EST SUN JAN 31 2016

...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY REMAINS IN EFFECT UNTIL 4 PM EST MONDAY...

* WINDS...WEST 20 TO 25 KNOTS.

* WAVES...3 TO 5 FEET.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

A SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY MEANS THAT WIND SPEEDS OF 18 TO 33 KNOTS
AND/OR WAVES AVERAGING 4 FEET OR MORE ARE EXPECTED TO PRODUCE
HAZARDOUS WAVE CONDITIONS TO SMALL CRAFT. INEXPERIENCED
MARINERS... ESPECIALLY THOSE OPERATING SMALLER VESSELS... SHOULD
AVOID NAVIGATING IN THESE CONDITIONS.

&&

$$

LOZ043-011045-
/O.CON.KBUF.SC.Y.0010.000000T0000Z-160202T0300Z/
LAKE ONTARIO NEARSHORE WATERS FROM HAMLIN BEACH TO SODUS BAY-
938 PM EST SUN JAN 31 2016

...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY REMAINS IN EFFECT UNTIL 10 PM EST
MONDAY...

* WINDS...WEST 15 TO 20 KNOTS.

* WAVES...3 TO 5 FEET.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

A SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY MEANS THAT WIND SPEEDS OF 18 TO 33 KNOTS
AND/OR WAVES AVERAGING 4 FEET OR MORE ARE EXPECTED TO PRODUCE
HAZARDOUS WAVE CONDITIONS TO SMALL CRAFT. INEXPERIENCED
MARINERS... ESPECIALLY THOSE OPERATING SMALLER VESSELS... SHOULD
AVOID NAVIGATING IN THESE CONDITIONS.

&&

$$

LOZ044-045-011045-
/O.CON.KBUF.SC.Y.0010.000000T0000Z-160202T0600Z/
LAKE ONTARIO NEARSHORE WATERS FROM SODUS BAY TO MEXICO BAY-
LAKE ONTARIO NEARSHORE WATERS FROM MEXICO BAY TO THE SAINT
LAWRENCE RIVER-
938 PM EST SUN JAN 31 2016

...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY REMAINS IN EFFECT UNTIL 1 AM EST
TUESDAY...

* WINDS...SOUTHWEST 15 TO 20 KNOTS.

* WAVES...3 TO 5 FEET.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

A SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY MEANS THAT WIND SPEEDS OF 18 TO 33 KNOTS
AND/OR WAVES AVERAGING 4 FEET OR MORE ARE EXPECTED TO PRODUCE
HAZARDOUS WAVE CONDITIONS TO SMALL CRAFT. INEXPERIENCED
MARINERS... ESPECIALLY THOSE OPERATING SMALLER VESSELS... SHOULD
AVOID NAVIGATING IN THESE CONDITIONS.

&&

$$

203 
WHUS71 KBUF 010841
MWWBUF

URGENT - MARINE WEATHER MESSAGE
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BUFFALO NY
341 AM EST MON FEB 1 2016

LEZ020-LOZ030-010945-
/O.CAN.KBUF.SC.Y.0010.000000T0000Z-160201T1000Z/
UPPER NIAGARA RIVER AND BUFFALO HARBOR-LOWER NIAGARA RIVER-
341 AM EST MON FEB 1 2016

...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY IS CANCELLED...

THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE IN BUFFALO HAS CANCELLED THE SMALL
CRAFT ADVISORY.

$$

LEZ040-041-011500-
/O.CON.KBUF.SC.Y.0010.000000T0000Z-160201T1500Z/
LAKE ERIE NEARSHORE WATERS FROM RIPLEY TO DUNKIRK-
LAKE ERIE NEARSHORE WATERS FROM DUNKIRK TO BUFFALO-
341 AM EST MON FEB 1 2016

...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY REMAINS IN EFFECT UNTIL 10 AM EST THIS
MORNING...

* WINDS...WEST 15 TO 20 KNOTS.

* WAVES...3 TO 5 FEET.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

A SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY MEANS THAT WIND SPEEDS OF 18 TO 33 KNOTS
AND/OR WAVES AVERAGING 4 FEET OR MORE ARE EXPECTED TO PRODUCE
HAZARDOUS WAVE CONDITIONS TO SMALL CRAFT. INEXPERIENCED
MARINERS... ESPECIALLY THOSE OPERATING SMALLER VESSELS... SHOULD
AVOID NAVIGATING IN THESE CONDITIONS.

&&

$$

LOZ042-011645-
/O.CON.KBUF.SC.Y.0010.000000T0000Z-160201T2100Z/
LAKE ONTARIO NEARSHORE WATERS FROM THE NIAGARA RIVER TO HAMLIN
BEACH-
341 AM EST MON FEB 1 2016

...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY REMAINS IN EFFECT UNTIL 4 PM EST THIS
AFTERNOON...

* WINDS...WEST 15 TO 25 KNOTS.

* WAVES...3 TO 5 FEET.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

A SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY MEANS THAT WIND SPEEDS OF 18 TO 33 KNOTS
AND/OR WAVES AVERAGING 4 FEET OR MORE ARE EXPECTED TO PRODUCE
HAZARDOUS WAVE CONDITIONS TO SMALL CRAFT. INEXPERIENCED
MARINERS... ESPECIALLY THOSE OPERATING SMALLER VESSELS... SHOULD
AVOID NAVIGATING IN THESE CONDITIONS.

&&

$$

LOZ043-011645-
/O.CON.KBUF.SC.Y.0010.000000T0000Z-160202T0300Z/
LAKE ONTARIO NEARSHORE WATERS FROM HAMLIN BEACH TO SODUS BAY-
341 AM EST MON FEB 1 2016

...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY REMAINS IN EFFECT UNTIL 10 PM EST THIS
EVENING...

* WINDS...WEST 15 TO 25 KNOTS.

* WAVES...3 TO 5 FEET.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

A SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY MEANS THAT WIND SPEEDS OF 18 TO 33 KNOTS
AND/OR WAVES AVERAGING 4 FEET OR MORE ARE EXPECTED TO PRODUCE
HAZARDOUS WAVE CONDITIONS TO SMALL CRAFT. INEXPERIENCED
MARINERS... ESPECIALLY THOSE OPERATING SMALLER VESSELS... SHOULD
AVOID NAVIGATING IN THESE CONDITIONS.

&&

$$

LOZ044-045-011645-
/O.CON.KBUF.SC.Y.0010.000000T0000Z-160202T0600Z/
LAKE ONTARIO NEARSHORE WATERS FROM SODUS BAY TO MEXICO BAY-
LAKE ONTARIO NEARSHORE WATERS FROM MEXICO BAY TO THE SAINT
LAWRENCE RIVER-
341 AM EST MON FEB 1 2016

...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY REMAINS IN EFFECT UNTIL 1 AM EST
TUESDAY...

* WINDS...WEST 15 TO 25 KNOTS.

* WAVES...3 TO 5 FEET.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

A SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY MEANS THAT WIND SPEEDS OF 18 TO 33 KNOTS
AND/OR WAVES AVERAGING 4 FEET OR MORE ARE EXPECTED TO PRODUCE
HAZARDOUS WAVE CONDITIONS TO SMALL CRAFT. INEXPERIENCED
MARINERS... ESPECIALLY THOSE OPERATING SMALLER VESSELS... SHOULD
AVOID NAVIGATING IN THESE CONDITIONS.

&&

$$

968 
WHUS71 KBUF 011137
MWWBUF

URGENT - MARINE WEATHER MESSAGE
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BUFFALO NY
637 AM EST MON FEB 1 2016

LEZ040-041-011500-
/O.CON.KBUF.SC.Y.0010.000000T0000Z-160201T1500Z/
LAKE ERIE NEARSHORE WATERS FROM RIPLEY TO DUNKIRK-
LAKE ERIE NEARSHORE WATERS FROM DUNKIRK TO BUFFALO-
637 AM EST MON FEB 1 2016

...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY REMAINS IN EFFECT UNTIL 10 AM EST THIS
MORNING...

* WINDS...WEST 20 TO 25 KNOTS.

* WAVES...3 TO 5 FEET.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

A SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY MEANS THAT WIND SPEEDS OF 18 TO 33 KNOTS
AND/OR WAVES AVERAGING 4 FEET OR MORE ARE EXPECTED TO PRODUCE
HAZARDOUS WAVE CONDITIONS TO SMALL CRAFT. INEXPERIENCED
MARINERS... ESPECIALLY THOSE OPERATING SMALLER VESSELS... SHOULD
AVOID NAVIGATING IN THESE CONDITIONS.

&&

$$

LOZ042-011945-
/O.CON.KBUF.SC.Y.0010.000000T0000Z-160201T2100Z/
LAKE ONTARIO NEARSHORE WATERS FROM THE NIAGARA RIVER TO HAMLIN
BEACH-
637 AM EST MON FEB 1 2016

...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY REMAINS IN EFFECT UNTIL 4 PM EST THIS
AFTERNOON...

* WINDS...WEST TO 30 KNOTS.

* WAVES...3 TO 5 FEET.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

A SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY MEANS THAT WIND SPEEDS OF 18 TO 33 KNOTS
AND/OR WAVES AVERAGING 4 FEET OR MORE ARE EXPECTED TO PRODUCE
HAZARDOUS WAVE CONDITIONS TO SMALL CRAFT. INEXPERIENCED
MARINERS... ESPECIALLY THOSE OPERATING SMALLER VESSELS... SHOULD
AVOID NAVIGATING IN THESE CONDITIONS.

&&

$$

LOZ043-011945-
/O.CON.KBUF.SC.Y.0010.000000T0000Z-160202T0300Z/
LAKE ONTARIO NEARSHORE WATERS FROM HAMLIN BEACH TO SODUS BAY-
637 AM EST MON FEB 1 2016

...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY REMAINS IN EFFECT UNTIL 10 PM EST THIS
EVENING...

* WINDS...WEST TO 30 KNOTS.

* WAVES...3 TO 5 FEET.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

A SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY MEANS THAT WIND SPEEDS OF 18 TO 33 KNOTS
AND/OR WAVES AVERAGING 4 FEET OR MORE ARE EXPECTED TO PRODUCE
HAZARDOUS WAVE CONDITIONS TO SMALL CRAFT. INEXPERIENCED
MARINERS... ESPECIALLY THOSE OPERATING SMALLER VESSELS... SHOULD
AVOID NAVIGATING IN THESE CONDITIONS.

&&

$$

LOZ044-045-011945-
/O.CON.KBUF.SC.Y.0010.000000T0000Z-160202T0600Z/
LAKE ONTARIO NEARSHORE WATERS FROM SODUS BAY TO MEXICO BAY-
LAKE ONTARIO NEARSHORE WATERS FROM MEXICO BAY TO THE SAINT
LAWRENCE RIVER-
637 AM EST MON FEB 1 2016

...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY REMAINS IN EFFECT UNTIL 1 AM EST
TUESDAY...

* WINDS...WEST TO 30 KNOTS.

* WAVES...3 TO 5 FEET.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

A SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY MEANS THAT WIND SPEEDS OF 18 TO 33 KNOTS
AND/OR WAVES AVERAGING 4 FEET OR MORE ARE EXPECTED TO PRODUCE
HAZARDOUS WAVE CONDITIONS TO SMALL CRAFT. INEXPERIENCED
MARINERS... ESPECIALLY THOSE OPERATING SMALLER VESSELS... SHOULD
AVOID NAVIGATING IN THESE CONDITIONS.

&&

$$

690 
WHUS71 KBUF 011450
MWWBUF

URGENT - MARINE WEATHER MESSAGE
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BUFFALO NY
950 AM EST MON FEB 1 2016

LEZ040-041-011600-
/O.CAN.KBUF.SC.Y.0010.000000T0000Z-160201T1500Z/
LAKE ERIE NEARSHORE WATERS FROM RIPLEY TO DUNKIRK-
LAKE ERIE NEARSHORE WATERS FROM DUNKIRK TO BUFFALO-
950 AM EST MON FEB 1 2016

...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY IS CANCELLED...

THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE IN BUFFALO HAS CANCELLED THE SMALL
CRAFT ADVISORY.

$$

LOZ042-012100-
/O.CON.KBUF.SC.Y.0010.000000T0000Z-160201T2100Z/
LAKE ONTARIO NEARSHORE WATERS FROM THE NIAGARA RIVER TO HAMLIN
BEACH-
950 AM EST MON FEB 1 2016

...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY REMAINS IN EFFECT UNTIL 4 PM EST THIS
AFTERNOON...

* WINDS...WEST 15 TO 20 KNOTS.

* WAVES...3 TO 5 FEET.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

A SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY MEANS THAT WIND SPEEDS OF 18 TO 33 KNOTS
AND/OR WAVES AVERAGING 4 FEET OR MORE ARE EXPECTED TO PRODUCE
HAZARDOUS WAVE CONDITIONS TO SMALL CRAFT. INEXPERIENCED
MARINERS... ESPECIALLY THOSE OPERATING SMALLER VESSELS... SHOULD
AVOID NAVIGATING IN THESE CONDITIONS.

&&

$$

LOZ043-012300-
/O.CON.KBUF.SC.Y.0010.000000T0000Z-160202T0300Z/
LAKE ONTARIO NEARSHORE WATERS FROM HAMLIN BEACH TO SODUS BAY-
950 AM EST MON FEB 1 2016

...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY REMAINS IN EFFECT UNTIL 10 PM EST THIS
EVENING...

* WINDS...WEST 20 TO 25 KNOTS.

* WAVES...3 TO 5 FEET.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

A SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY MEANS THAT WIND SPEEDS OF 18 TO 33 KNOTS
AND/OR WAVES AVERAGING 4 FEET OR MORE ARE EXPECTED TO PRODUCE
HAZARDOUS WAVE CONDITIONS TO SMALL CRAFT. INEXPERIENCED
MARINERS... ESPECIALLY THOSE OPERATING SMALLER VESSELS... SHOULD
AVOID NAVIGATING IN THESE CONDITIONS.

&&

$$

LOZ044-045-012300-
/O.CON.KBUF.SC.Y.0010.000000T0000Z-160202T0600Z/
LAKE ONTARIO NEARSHORE WATERS FROM SODUS BAY TO MEXICO BAY-
LAKE ONTARIO NEARSHORE WATERS FROM MEXICO BAY TO THE SAINT
LAWRENCE RIVER-
950 AM EST MON FEB 1 2016

...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY REMAINS IN EFFECT UNTIL 1 AM EST
TUESDAY...

* WINDS...WEST 15 TO 20 KNOTS.

* WAVES...3 TO 5 FEET.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

A SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY MEANS THAT WIND SPEEDS OF 18 TO 33 KNOTS
AND/OR WAVES AVERAGING 4 FEET OR MORE ARE EXPECTED TO PRODUCE
HAZARDOUS WAVE CONDITIONS TO SMALL CRAFT. INEXPERIENCED
MARINERS... ESPECIALLY THOSE OPERATING SMALLER VESSELS... SHOULD
AVOID NAVIGATING IN THESE CONDITIONS.

&&

$$

SMITH

165 
WHUS71 KBUF 012040
MWWBUF

URGENT - MARINE WEATHER MESSAGE
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BUFFALO NY
340 PM EST MON FEB 1 2016

LOZ043-012145-
/O.CAN.KBUF.SC.Y.0010.000000T0000Z-160202T0300Z/
LAKE ONTARIO NEARSHORE WATERS FROM HAMLIN BEACH TO SODUS BAY-
340 PM EST MON FEB 1 2016

...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY IS CANCELLED...

THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE IN BUFFALO HAS CANCELLED THE SMALL
CRAFT ADVISORY.

$$

LOZ042-012145-
/O.CAN.KBUF.SC.Y.0010.000000T0000Z-160201T2100Z/
LAKE ONTARIO NEARSHORE WATERS FROM THE NIAGARA RIVER TO HAMLIN
BEACH-
340 PM EST MON FEB 1 2016

...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY IS CANCELLED...

THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE IN BUFFALO HAS CANCELLED THE SMALL
CRAFT ADVISORY.

$$

LOZ044-045-020445-
/O.CON.KBUF.SC.Y.0010.000000T0000Z-160202T0600Z/
LAKE ONTARIO NEARSHORE WATERS FROM SODUS BAY TO MEXICO BAY-
LAKE ONTARIO NEARSHORE WATERS FROM MEXICO BAY TO THE SAINT
LAWRENCE RIVER-
340 PM EST MON FEB 1 2016

...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY REMAINS IN EFFECT UNTIL 1 AM EST
TUESDAY...

* WINDS...WEST 15 TO 20 KNOTS.

* WAVES...3 TO 5 FEET.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

A SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY MEANS THAT WIND SPEEDS OF 18 TO 33 KNOTS
AND/OR WAVES AVERAGING 4 FEET OR MORE ARE EXPECTED TO PRODUCE
HAZARDOUS WAVE CONDITIONS TO SMALL CRAFT. INEXPERIENCED
MARINERS... ESPECIALLY THOSE OPERATING SMALLER VESSELS... SHOULD
AVOID NAVIGATING IN THESE CONDITIONS.

&&

$$

SMITH

102 
WHUS71 KBUF 012337
MWWBUF

URGENT - MARINE WEATHER MESSAGE
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BUFFALO NY
637 PM EST MON FEB 1 2016

LOZ044-045-020045-
/O.CAN.KBUF.SC.Y.0010.000000T0000Z-160202T0600Z/
LAKE ONTARIO NEARSHORE WATERS FROM SODUS BAY TO MEXICO BAY-
LAKE ONTARIO NEARSHORE WATERS FROM MEXICO BAY TO THE SAINT
LAWRENCE RIVER-
637 PM EST MON FEB 1 2016

...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY IS CANCELLED...

THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE IN BUFFALO HAS CANCELLED THE SMALL
CRAFT ADVISORY.

WINDS AND WAVES HAVE FALLEN BELOW ADVISORY LEVELS...THEREFORE THE
SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY HAS BEEN CANCELLED.

$$

JJR

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BUFFALO NY
1127 PM EST SAT JAN 30 2016

.SYNOPSIS...
A WAVE OF LOW PRESSURE OVER THE SOUTHERN PLAINS STATES WILL TRACK
NORTHEASTWARD AND ACROSS THE GREAT LAKES REGION THROUGH SUNDAY
NIGHT... WITH THIS SYSTEM BRINGING A LITTLE RAIN TO OUR AREA
SUNDAY AFTERNOON THROUGH EARLY MONDAY. OTHERWISE WELL ABOVE NORMAL
TEMPERATURES WILL PERSIST THROUGH WEDNESDAY...BEFORE A MIDWEEK
STORM SYSTEM USHERS IN COLDER AIR FOR THE REMAINDER OF THE WEEK.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH SUNDAY/...
OVERNIGHT...EXPECT QUIET AND MILD CONDITIONS TO PREVAIL WITH OUR
REGION FIRMLY EMBEDDED WITHIN A QUASI-ZONAL FLOW ALOFT...AND A BROAD
SOUTHWESTERLY FLOW IN PLACE AT THE LOWER LEVELS. VARIABLE AMOUNTS
OF MID AND HIGH CLOUDS WILL CONTINUE TO BE COMMONPLACE FOR MUCH OF
THE NIGHT...BEFORE SOME LOWER CLOUDS BEGIN DEVELOPING ACROSS THE
SOUTHERN TIER LATE AS INCREASING AMOUNTS OF LOW LEVEL MOISTURE ARE
ADVECTED NORTHEASTWARD FROM THE OHIO VALLEY. EXPECT LOW TEMPERATURES
TO LARGELY BE IN THE MID TO UPPER 30S.

THE QUASIZONAL UPPER PATTERN BECOMES A BROAD TROUGH WITH THE AXIS
REMAINING WELL TO THE WEST ON SUNDAY. THIS WILL ALLOW A LONGER TIME
TO TRANSPORT WARMER AND MORE MIST AIR INTO THE REGION FROM THE
SOUTHWEST...RESULTING IN CONTINUED INCREASING/LOWERING CLOUDS.
AS AN OPEN SURFACE LOW FORMS OVER MICHIGAN ON SUNDAY AFTERNOON
THERE WILL BE AN INCREASING CHANCE OF PRECIPITATION ALONG THE LAKE
ERIE BASIN AND WESTERN LAKE ONTARIO ONWARD TO THE HEAD OF THE SAINT
LAWRENCE RIVER. THIS WILL PLACE A SHARP GRADIENT FOR A CHANCE/NO
CHANCE OF RAIN ACROSS FAR WESTERN NEW YORK WITH THE RAIN CHANCE OVER
THE NIAGARA FRONTIER AND THEN THE FAR NORTH COUNTRY CLOSE TO THE
SAINT LAWRENCE RIVER. THERE IS SIGNIFICANT MODEL AGREEMENT IN THIS
TIGHT GRADIENT AND ITS PLACEMENT DURING SUNDAY AFTERNOON.

THE INFLUX OF WARMER AIR WILL BOOST THE TEMPERATURES TO THE UPPER
40S TO 50 DEGREES. AN ANALYSIS OF THAWING DEGREE HOURS FOR THE
PERIOD SATURDAY THROUGH SUNDAY EVENING SHOWS AN ACCUMULATION OF 300
THAWING DEGREES OR MORE SOMETIME AROUND SUNDAY EVENING FOR BUFFALO
AND ROCHESTER BUT NOT UNTIL LATE SUNDAY NIGHT FOR WATERTOWN OR
WELLSVILLE. WITH DEWPOINTS IN THE LOW 40S DURING SUNDAY... RIPENING
OF SNOWPACK WILL BE LIMITED...BUT SNOWMELT AND THE RISK OF ICE JAM
FLOODING POSED BY THE SNOWMELT WILL BEAR CONTINUED SCRUTINY.

&&

.SHORT TERM /SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY/...
SUNDAY NIGHT AN UPPER LEVEL SHORTWAVE AND ATTENDANT SURFACE LOW WILL
TRACK NORTH OF THE FORECAST AREA WHILE DRAGGING A COLD FRONT ACROSS
THE REGION BY MONDAY MORNING. UPPER-LEVEL DYNAMICS WITH THE FRONTAL
PASSAGE APPEAR A BIT MORE FAVORABLE NOW AS GLOBAL MODELS ARE IN
AGREEMENT ON A SHARPER TROUGH AXIS AND AN UPPER-LEVEL JET LEFT EXIT
REGION CROSSING THE AREA WITH THE LOW-LEVEL COLD FRONT. THE RESULT
WILL BE A DEEPER LAYER OF SYNOPTIC LIFT MOVING ACROSS FORECAST AREA
LATE SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY MORNING. HAVE INCREASED POPS TO
LIKELY AND EVEN CATEGORICAL IN THE UPSLOPE PRONE REGIONS AS AREAL
COVERAGE OF RAIN SHOULD BE MUCH MORE CONTIGUOUS WITH THIS BETTER
SYNOPTIC SUPPORT. QPF AMOUNTS ARE STILL EXPECTED TO LARGELY REMAIN
BETWEEN A TENTH AND QUARTER INCH. AMOUNTS WILL BE LOWEST IN THE
GENESEE VALLEY TO ROCHESTER WHERE DOWNSLOPE FLOW WILL DIMINISH
PRECIPITATION EFFICIENCY. HIGHEST AMOUNTS WILL BE OVER THE TUG HILL
WHERE UPSLOPE FLOW WILL LOCALLY ENHANCE PRECIPITATION TO A QUARTER
TO A THIRD OF AN INCH.

TEMPERATURES SUNDAY NIGHT WILL REMAIN VERY MILD IN THE WARM SECTOR
AHEAD OF THE APPROACHING LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM. THE COMBINATION OF
WARM ADVECTION PUSHING 850 MB TEMPS AROUND +4C AND SOUTH-
SOUTHWESTERLY DOWNSLOPE WINDS WILL KEEP TEMPERATURE FROM FALLING
MUCH OVERNIGHT... AND SHOULD STAY STEADY IN THE 40S. WITH THE COLD
FRONT PASSAGE ON MONDAY... THE HIGH TEMPERATURE FOR THE DAY WILL
OCCUR EARLY MONDAY MORNING (LOW TO MID 40S)... THEN TEMPERATURES
WILL FALL INTO THE MID 30S TO AROUND 40 BY LATE AFTERNOON.

THE STRONGEST WINDS ALOFT (50+ KNOTS) WITH THIS SYSTEM WILL BE IN
THE STRONG WARM ADVECTION REGIME AHEAD OF THE COLD FRONT PASSAGE. AS
IS USUALLY THE CASE... EXPECT THESE WINDS TO REMAIN ALOFT WITH AMPLE
SYNOPTIC LIFT AND A LOW-LEVEL INVERSION IN THE WARM ADVECTION.
MODELS HAVE TRENDED WEAKER WITH THE WINDS BEHIND THE COLD FRONT
PASSAGE MONDAY... WITH ONLY 20 TO 30 KNOTS AT 925 MB IN THE WNWERLY
FLOW BEHIND THE FRONT. EXPECT THE STRONGEST GUSTS TO ONLY BE IN THE
30 TO 35 MPH RANGE JUST AHEAD OF AND ALONG THE COLD FRONT PASSAGE
MONDAY MORNING... MOSTLY CONCENTRATED ALONG THE LAKE PLAINS AND THE
HIGHER HILL TOPS.

BEHIND THE COLD FRONT... RAIN SHOWERS WILL END...WITH JUST SCATTERED
LIGHT ACTIVITY ACROSS THE UPSLOPE HILLS EAST OF BOTH LAKE ERIE AND
LAKE ONTARIO. A SECONDARY SURFACE TROUGH MAY BRING ADDITIONAL LIGHT
RAIN OR SNOW SHOWERS TO THE NORTH COUNTRY MONDAY EVENING...OTHERWISE
SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE EXTENDING SOUTHWARD FROM CANADA SHOULD BRING A
MAINLY DRY NIGHT.

THIS AREA OF HIGH PRESSURE WILL REMAIN OVER THE NORTHEAST TUESDAY
ALLOWING FOR A DRY...AND COOLER...BUT STILL ABOVE NORMAL TEMPERATURE
DAY. HIGHS TUESDAY WILL RANGE FROM THE MID 30S EAST OF LAKE ONTARIO
TO AROUND 40 SOUTH OF LAKE ONTARIO.

&&

.LONG TERM /TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY/...
A STRONG LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM WILL IMPACT THE FORECAST AREA IN THE BY
TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY. IMPACTS ON THE FORECAST AREA WILL
BE FELT IN THREE STAGES. 1) A PERIOD OF PRECIPITATION ACROSS THE
REGION LATE TUESDAY NIGHT INTO WEDNESDAY MORNING, 2) STRONG TO
POTENTIALLY DAMAGING WINDS BEHIND THE COLD FRONT PASSAGE ON
WEDNESDAY, AND 3) AN INFLUX OF MUCH COLDER AIR ACROSS THE REGION IN
THE WAKE OF THE LOW THURSDAY INTO THE WEEKEND WHICH WILL RESULT IN
PERIODS OF LAKE EFFECT SNOWS EAST OF THE LAKES.

PRECIPITATION... THE LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM WILL DEVELOP OFF THE
SOUTHERN ROCKIES MONDAY AND TRACK NORTHEASTWARD WHILE RAPIDLY
DEEPENING INTO THE GREAT LAKES REGION BY WEDNESDAY. AHEAD OF THE
LOW... STRONG MOISTURE TRANSPORT ON A STRENGTHENING LOW-LEVEL JET
WILL PRODUCE WIDESPREAD RAINFALL ACROSS THE REGION FOR A 12 TO 18
HOUR WINDOW LATE WEDNESDAY NIGHT INTO THURSDAY. MUCH OF THIS
PRECIPITATION WILL FALL AS RAIN AS WARMER AIR IS ADVECTION NORTHWARD
INTO THE NORTHEAST US... HOWEVER ON THE LEADING EDGE OF THIS
PRECIPITATION SHIELD THERE IS THE POTENTIAL FOR SOME WINTRY MIX AND
FREEZING RAIN FOR A FEW HOUR WINDOW EARLY WEDNESDAY ACROSS THE NORTH
COUNTRY. HAVE INCLUDED THIS THREAT IN THE HWO AS THERE HAS BEEN A
SIGNAL FOR THIS FOR SEVERAL MODEL RUNS NOW... AS WELL AS THIS
MATCHING THE TYPICAL PATTERN FOR FREEZING RAIN. IF RIVER ICE
REMAINS...WE WILL NEED TO WATCH THIS SYSTEM FOR POTENTIAL HYDRO
ISSUES... AS THE COMBINATION OF WARMER TEMPERATURES AND RAINFALL MAY
BE ENOUGH TO CAUSE SOME RIVER/CREEK ICE TO BREAK UP AND CAUSES ICE
JAMS.

WINDS... INITIALLY A STRONG SOUTHEASTERLY LOW-LEVEL JET WILL MOVE
ACROSS THE REGION IN ADVANCE OF THE LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM. THIS MAY
RESULT IN STRONG TO DAMAGING SOUTHEASTERLY DOWNSLOPE WINDS OFF THE
CHAUTAUQUA RIDGE IN THE DUNKIRK AREA. FORECAST MODELS CROSS SECTIONS
OFF THE RIDGE CONTINUE TO DENOTE AN AREA OF 50+ KNOT SE WINDS AT THE
TOP OF THE INVERSION AT RIDGE TOP LEVEL. IF THIS MATERIALIZES IT
WOULD ALLOW FOR A MOUNTAIN WAVE TO FORM OFF THE RIDGE... WHICH WILL
HELP TO DUCT STRONGER WINDS TO THE SURFACE. BEHIND THE COLD FRONT
PASSAGE DURING THE DAY WEDNESDAY... EXPECT STRONG TO POTENTIALLY
DAMAGING SOUTHWEST WINDS TO DEVELOP. THE TRACK OF THE SURFACE LOW
MATCHES THE CLASSIC HIGH WIND CLIMATOLOGY ACROSS WESTERN AND NORTH
CENTRAL NY PARTICULARLY FOR THE LAKE SHORES AND LAKE PLAINS
NORTHEAST OF THE LAKES. FORECAST MODELS SUPPORT THIS AS THE BEST
COLD AIR ADVECTION... STEEPENING LOW-LEVEL LAPSE RATES...STRONG
SURFACE PRESSURE RISES... AND TRACK OF THE UPPER-LEVEL PV MAX ALL
ALIGN BEHIND THE FRONTAL PASSAGE. HAVING THIS COMBINATION OF
SYNOPTIC SUPPORT WITH WINDS 50+ KNOTS AT 925 MB WILL TYPICALLY
LEAD TO HIGH WIND EVENTS. IN ADDITION... THE CIPS ANALOG PAGE
DISPLAYS OVER 70 PERCENT OF THE TOP 15 ANALOGS TO THIS WEATHER
SYSTEM CONTAINING WIND GUSTS OVER 35 KTS OVER THE LAKE PLAINS.
BASED ON THE ABOVE INFORMATION WE WILL CONTINUE TO INCLUDED THIS
THREAT IN THE HWO FOR THE WIND PRONE LOCATIONS. IN ADDITION...
THIS IS ALSO AN IDEAL SET-UP FOR A SEICHE ON LAKE ERIE... WITH
SOUTHEASTERLY WINDS AHEAD OF THE LOW AND A WELL ALIGNED SURFACE
PRESSURE RISE-FALL COUPLET TRACKING UP THE LENGTH OF THE LAKE WITH
THE COLD FRONT PASSAGE. THIS MAY RESULT IN SOME LAKE SHORE
FLOODING AND EROSION ALONG THE BUFFALO HARBOR AND THE TYPICALLY
PRONE AREAS SOUTH OF THE CITY TOWARD HAMBURG AND ANGOLA.

LAKE EFFECT... GLOBAL MODELS REMAIN IN GOOD AGREEMENT THAT THIS
STRONG LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM WILL USHER IN A PATTERN CHANGE BACK TO
COLDER TEMPERATURES. ON THE HEELS OF THE DEPARTING LOW ON
THURSDAY... 850 MB TEMPERATURES -12 TO -15C MOVES ACROSS THE LOWER
GREAT LAKES IN A MEAN CYCLONIC FLOW. LAKE EFFECT SNOWS WILL INCREASE
EAST OF THE LOWER GREAT LAKES THURSDAY. MODEL DETAILS DIVERGE AFTER
THURSDAY...WITH BOTH THE 00Z GFS AND ECMWF NOSING AN AREA OF HIGH
PRESSURE...AND DRIER AIR ACROSS THE EASTERN GREAT LAKES FRIDAY.

&&

.AVIATION /06Z SUNDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
OVERNIGHT INTO SUNDAY MORNING...EXPECT QUIET CONDITIONS TO
PREVAIL WITH OUR REGION FIRMLY EMBEDDED WITHIN A QUASI-ZONAL FLOW
ALOFT... AND A BROAD SOUTHWESTERLY FLOW IN PLACE AT THE LOWER
LEVELS. VARIABLE AMOUNTS OF MID AND HIGH LEVEL CLOUDINESS ACROSS
THE REGION OVERNIGHT WILL SLOWLY GIVE WAY TO INCREASING LOWER
CLOUDS ACROSS THE SOUTHERN TIER VERY LATE TONIGHT AND SUNDAY
MORNING AS INCREASING AMOUNTS OF LOW LEVEL MOISTURE ARE ADVECTED
NORTHEASTWARD FROM THE OHIO VALLEY. THIS WILL RESULT IN CIGS
FALLING TO THE HIGH MVFR/LOW VFR RANGE ACROSS THE SOUTHERN
TIER...WHILE MUCH HIGHER VFR LEVEL CLOUDS PERSIST ELSEWHERE.

SUNDAY AFTERNOON...A DEVELOPING WAVE OF LOW PRESSURE WILL TRACK
ACROSS LOWER MICHIGAN. A CONTINUED INCREASE IN LOW LEVEL MOISTURE
WILL RESULT IN LOWER CLOUDS SPREADING ACROSS THE REMAINDER OF THE
REGION...WITH CIGS AREAWIDE FALLING TO THE MVFR/LOW VFR RANGES. AT
THE SAME TIME...DEEPENING MOISTURE OVERALL AND INCREASING AMOUNTS
OF LARGE-SCALE LIFT OUT AHEAD OF THE LOW WILL LEAD TO INCREASING
CHANCES OF SOME LIGHT RAIN IN THE KBUF-KIAG-KROC-KART CORRIDOR...
WHILE MUCH LOWER CHANCES OF RAIN WILL BE FOUND ACROSS THE
REMAINDER OF THE AREA.

SUNDAY NIGHT...THE AFOREMENTIONED WAVE WILL PASS BY TO OUR
NORTH... WHILE PUSHING ITS TRAILING COLD FRONT THROUGH OUR REGION.
MORE WIDESPREAD RAIN SHOWERS CAN BE EXPECTED ALONG AND OUT AHEAD
OF THE FRONT...WITH IFR/MVFR CIGS LARGELY PREDOMINANT ACROSS THE
HIGHER TERRAIN...AND MVFR/VFR CIGS THE RULE ACROSS THE LOWER
ELEVATIONS. LLWS WILL ALSO BE A CONCERN AS A 50-60 KNOT LOW LEVEL
JET PASSES ACROSS THE REGION.

OUTLOOK...
MONDAY...SHOWERS DIMINISHING. IFR/MVFR CIGS PREVAILING ACROSS THE
HIGHER TERRAIN...WITH MVFR/VFR CIGS ACROSS THE LOWER ELEVATIONS.
MONDAY NIGHT AND TUESDAY...VFR/MVFR.
WEDNESDAY...IFR/MVFR IN RAIN.
THURSDAY...AREAS OF LAKE EFFECT SNOW WITH IFR EAST OF THE LAKES...
OTHERWISE VFR.

&&

.MARINE...
LINGERING BRISK SOUTHERLIES ACROSS FAR EASTERN LAKE ONTARIO WILL
MAINTAIN ADVISORY-WORTHY CONDITIONS ACROSS THAT PARTICULAR REGION
PRIOR TO MIDNIGHT...WITH RELATIVELY QUIET CONDITIONS THEN EXPECTED
OVERNIGHT AND SUNDAY MORNING.

ANOTHER PASSING WAVE OF LOW PRESSURE WILL THEN LIKELY BRING ANOTHER
ROUND OF ADVISORY-TYPE WINDS AND WAVES LATE SUNDAY AFTERNOON THROUGH
MONDAY EVENING...BEFORE A SECOND AND EVEN MORE ENERGETIC SYSTEM
POTENTIALLY BRINGS A ROUND OF GALES ON WEDNESDAY.

&&

.BUF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NY...NONE.
MARINE...NONE.

&&

SYNOPSIS...JJR
NEAR TERM...JJR/WCH
SHORT TERM...CHURCH
LONG TERM...CHURCH
AVIATION...JJR
MARINE...JJR/WCH

HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BUFFALO NY
340 PM EST SAT JAN 30 2016

NYZ001>003-010>012-019-020-085-312045-
NIAGARA-ORLEANS-MONROE-NORTHERN ERIE-GENESEE-WYOMING-CHAUTAUQUA-
CATTARAUGUS-SOUTHERN ERIE-
340 PM EST SAT JAN 30 2016

THIS HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK IS FOR PORTIONS OF WESTERN NEW YORK.

.DAY ONE...THIS AFTERNOON AND TONIGHT.

THE PROBABILITY OF WIDESPREAD HAZARDOUS WEATHER IS LOW.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...SUNDAY THROUGH FRIDAY.

STRONG TO DAMAGING WINDS ARE POSSIBLE LATE TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH
WEDNESDAY AS A POTENT LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM TRACKS THROUGH THE GREAT
LAKES.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

SPOTTER ACTIVATION IS NOT EXPECTED AT THIS TIME.

THIS PRODUCT...ALONG WITH OTHER WATCHES...WARNINGS...ADVISORIES...
AND STATEMENTS ISSUED BY THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE OFFICE IN
BUFFALO CAN BE FOUND ON THE INTERNET AT HTTP://WWW.WEATHER.GOV/BUF

LEZ020-040-041-LOZ030-042>045-062>065-312045-
UPPER NIAGARA RIVER AND BUFFALO HARBOR-
LAKE ERIE NEARSHORE WATERS FROM RIPLEY TO DUNKIRK-
LAKE ERIE NEARSHORE WATERS FROM DUNKIRK TO BUFFALO-
LOWER NIAGARA RIVER-
LAKE ONTARIO NEARSHORE WATERS FROM THE NIAGARA RIVER TO HAMLIN BEACH-
LAKE ONTARIO NEARSHORE WATERS FROM HAMLIN BEACH TO SODUS BAY-
LAKE ONTARIO NEARSHORE WATERS FROM SODUS BAY TO MEXICO BAY-
LAKE ONTARIO NEARSHORE WATERS FROM MEXICO BAY TO THE SAINT LAWRENCE
RIVER-
LAKE ONTARIO OPEN WATERS FROM THE NIAGARA RIVER TO HAMLIN BEACH-
LAKE ONTARIO OPEN WATERS FROM HAMLIN BEACH TO SODUS BAY-
LAKE ONTARIO OPEN WATERS FROM SODUS BAY TO MEXICO BAY-
LAKE ONTARIO OPEN WATERS FROM MEXICO BAY TO THE SAINT LAWRENCE RIVER-
340 PM EST SAT JAN 30 2016

THIS HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK IS FOR PORTIONS OF LAKE ERIE AND LAKE
ONTARIO.

.DAY ONE...THIS AFTERNOON AND TONIGHT.

THE PROBABILITY OF WIDESPREAD HAZARDOUS WEATHER IS LOW.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...SUNDAY THROUGH FRIDAY.

GALE FORCE WINDS ARE POSSIBLE WEDNESDAY AS A POTENT LOW PRESSURE
SYSTEM MOVES THROUGH THE GREAT LAKES.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

SPOTTER ACTIVATION IS NOT EXPECTED AT THIS TIME.

THIS PRODUCT...ALONG WITH OTHER WATCHES...WARNINGS...ADVISORIES...
AND STATEMENTS ISSUED BY THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE OFFICE IN
BUFFALO CAN BE FOUND ON THE INTERNET AT HTTP://WWW.WEATHER.GOV/BUF

NYZ006>008-312045-
OSWEGO-JEFFERSON-LEWIS-
340 PM EST SAT JAN 30 2016

THIS HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK IS FOR PORTIONS OF CENTRAL NEW YORK.

.DAY ONE...THIS AFTERNOON AND TONIGHT.

THE PROBABILITY OF WIDESPREAD HAZARDOUS WEATHER IS LOW.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...SUNDAY THROUGH FRIDAY.

STRONG TO DAMAGING WINDS ARE POSSIBLE WEDNESDAY AS A POTENT
LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM MOVES THROUGH THE GREAT LAKES. FREEZING RAIN
IS POSSIBLE EARLY WEDNESDAY BEFORE PRECIPITATION CHANGES OVER TO
ALL RAIN.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

SPOTTER ACTIVATION IS NOT EXPECTED AT THIS TIME.

THIS PRODUCT...ALONG WITH OTHER WATCHES...WARNINGS...ADVISORIES...
AND STATEMENTS ISSUED BY THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE OFFICE IN
BUFFALO CAN BE FOUND ON THE INTERNET AT HTTP://WWW.WEATHER.GOV/BUF

NYZ004-005-013-014-021-312045-
WAYNE-NORTHERN CAYUGA-LIVINGSTON-ONTARIO-ALLEGANY-
340 PM EST SAT JAN 30 2016

THIS HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK IS FOR PORTIONS OF CENTRAL NEW YORK
AND WESTERN NEW YORK.

.DAY ONE...THIS AFTERNOON AND TONIGHT.

THE PROBABILITY FOR WIDESPREAD HAZARDOUS WEATHER IS LOW.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...SUNDAY THROUGH FRIDAY.

THE PROBABILITY FOR WIDESPREAD HAZARDOUS WEATHER IS LOW.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

SPOTTER ACTIVATION IS NOT EXPECTED AT THIS TIME.

THIS PRODUCT...ALONG WITH OTHER WATCHES...WARNINGS...ADVISORIES...
AND STATEMENTS ISSUED BY THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE OFFICE IN
BUFFALO CAN BE FOUND ON THE INTERNET AT HTTP://WWW.WEATHER.GOV/BUF

CHURCH