Alert archive / New York / Lakeshore Flood Warnings in 2016

Lakeshore Flood Warning 1, NWS Buffalo, NY

January 10, 2016Chautauqua County, Erie County, New York

NWS Buffalo, NY issued this lakeshore flood warning at Jan 10, 2016, 5:07 PM EST for Chautauqua County, Erie County, New York. It was in force for 5 hr. No storm report in the archive falls inside the area while it was in force.

The area

The counties it named.

The facts

Issued
Jan 10, 2016, 5:07 PM EST (22:07 UTC)
Expired
Jan 10, 2016, 9:46 PM EST
In force
5 hr
Issued by
NWS Buffalo, NY

Counties Chautauqua County, NY, Erie County, NY

The radar

The Buffalo radar (KBUF), 55 km from the middle of the area, began a volume at 22:10 UTC, the scan nearest the moment this went out.

Open the radar archive at this moment

The archived warnings, watches and discussions in force at that minute are drawn over the scan, this one among them.

The nearest sounding before it

Buffalo Intl Airport, NY (KBUF), launched 12:00Z, 10.1 hours before the alert went out and 55 km from the middle of its area. This is the routine balloon launch nearest before it, the air the forecaster had in hand, not a measurement taken for the alert.

Skew-T log-pSkew-T log-p diagram, Buffalo Intl Airport, NY at 12:00Z on 2016-01-10Temperature and dew point through the depth of the atmosphere, with the mixed-layer parcel. CAPE 0 joules per kilogram.LCL10008507005003002001001 km2 km3 km6 km9 km12 km15 km-30°-20°-10°0°10°20°30°40°
Temperature in red, dew point in green, the mixed-layer parcel dashed.
HodographHodograph, Buffalo Intl Airport, NY at 12:00Z on 2016-01-10The wind through the lowest 10 kilometers. Zero to 1 km storm-relative helicity 666 square meters per square second.1939587897Sfc1 km3 km6 km9 kmRMLM
The wind turning with height, colored by layer: ground to 1 km, 1 to 3 km, 3 to 6 km, 6 to 10 km.
Mixed-layer CAPE
0 J/kg
Mixed-layer CIN
No buoyant parcel
Mixed-layer LCL
906 m above ground
0-6 km bulk shear
63 kt
0-1 km storm-relative helicity
666 m²/s²
0-3 km storm-relative helicity
750 m²/s²
Significant tornado parameter
0.0
Supercell composite
0.0

Open this sounding in Storm Lab

The text

As transmitted.

992 
WHUS41 KBUF 102207
CFWBUF

URGENT - IMMEDIATE BROADCAST REQUESTED
COASTAL HAZARD MESSAGE
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BUFFALO NY
507 PM EST SUN JAN 10 2016

NYZ010-019-085-110300-
/O.UPG.KBUF.LS.Y.0001.000000T0000Z-160111T0300Z/
/O.NEW.KBUF.LS.W.0001.160110T2207Z-160111T0300Z/
NORTHERN ERIE-CHAUTAUQUA-SOUTHERN ERIE-
507 PM EST SUN JAN 10 2016

...LAKESHORE FLOOD WARNING IN EFFECT UNTIL 10 PM EST THIS
EVENING...

THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE IN BUFFALO HAS ISSUED A LAKESHORE
FLOOD WARNING...WHICH IS IN EFFECT UNTIL 10 PM EST THIS EVENING.
THE LAKESHORE FLOOD ADVISORY IS NO LONGER IN EFFECT.

* LOCATIONS...LAKE ERIE SHORE IN CHAUTAUQUA AND ERIE COUNTIES.

* LAKE SHORE FLOODING...STRONG WINDS BEHIND A COLD FRONT HAVE
  PUSHED WATER LEVELS UP TO NEAR 8 FEET ABOVE LOW WATER DATUM AT
  BUFFALO. WATER LEVELS SHOULD LEVEL OFF BETWEEN 8 AND 9 FEET THIS
  EVENING BEFORE DIMINISHING BY 10 PM.

* TIMING...THROUGH LATE THIS EVENING.

* IMPACTS...ELEVATED WATER LEVELS COULD POSE A HAZARD TO ANY
  REMAINING DOCKED BOATS AND VESSELS IN AREA HARBORS. ANYONE NEAR
  OR AT THE SHORELINE SHOULD BE PREPARED FOR SUCH ELEVATED WATER
  LEVELS. ROUTE 5 IN THE TOWN OF HAMBURG MAY BE IMPACTED. WAVES
  ARE EXPECTED TO BUILD TO 12 TO 15 FEET WHICH MAY SPLASH OVER IN
  LOCATIONS TYPICALLY VULNERABLE...EVEN AFTER THE LAKE LEVELS
  BEGIN TO FALL. 

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

A LAKESHORE FLOOD WARNING MEANS LAKESHORE FLOODING IS OCCURRING,
IS IMMINENT, OR IS EXPECTED TO OCCUR. PEOPLE IN THE WARNING AREA
SHOULD TAKE IMMEDIATE ACTION TO PROTECT LIFE AND PROPERTY. LISTEN
TO LOCAL RADIO...TELEVISION...OR NOAA WEATHER RADIO FOR FURTHER
INFORMATION.

&&

$$

THOMAS/CHURCH
1 follow-up statement
462 
WHUS41 KBUF 110246
CFWBUF

URGENT - IMMEDIATE BROADCAST REQUESTED
COASTAL HAZARD MESSAGE
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BUFFALO NY
946 PM EST SUN JAN 10 2016

NYZ010-019-085-110400-
/O.CAN.KBUF.LS.W.0001.000000T0000Z-160111T0300Z/
NORTHERN ERIE-CHAUTAUQUA-SOUTHERN ERIE-
946 PM EST SUN JAN 10 2016

...LAKESHORE FLOOD WARNING IS CANCELLED...

THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE IN BUFFALO HAS CANCELLED THE
LAKESHORE FLOOD WARNING.

$$

THOMAS

What forecasters said that day

The local office's own words before this lakeshore flood warning went out, as it sent them, from the Iowa Environmental Mesonet's archive of National Weather Service text.

NWS Buffalo, NY wrote its last area forecast discussion before this lakeshore flood warning went out at Jan 10, 4:12 PM EST, 55 minutes earlier.

Area forecast discussion, Jan 10, 4:12 PM EST, 55 minutes before
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BUFFALO NY
412 PM EST SUN JAN 10 2016

.SYNOPSIS...
IN THE WAKE OF A STRONG COLD FRONTAL PASSAGE...STRONG WINDS WILL
USHER MUCH COLDER AIR BACK INTO OUR REGION WITH ANY LINGERING RAIN
CHANGING OVER TO SNOW AND DIMINISHING THIS EVENING...AND HEAVY
LAKE EFFECT SNOW DEVELOPING EAST OF THE LAKES AND CONTINUING
THROUGH TONIGHT AND MONDAY. A PASSING CLIPPER SYSTEM WILL THEN
BRING WIDESPREAD LIGHT SNOW TUESDAY WITH LOCALLY HEAVY LAKE EFFECT
SNOW THEN REDEVELOPING EAST OF THE LAKES TUESDAY NIGHT AND
CONTINUING THROUGH AT LEAST THURSDAY.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH MONDAY/...
LOW PRESSURE OVER SOUTHERN ONTARIO WILL CONTINUE TO DEEPEN AS IT
LIFTS NORTHEASTWARD INTO QUEBEC BY THIS EVENING...THEN FURTHER
NORTH ACROSS QUEBEC PROVINCE TONIGHT AND MONDAY. IN THE
PROCESS...IT WILL SWEEP ITS TRAILING STRONG COLD FRONT ACROSS THE
AREA THROUGH EARLY THIS EVENING... WITH MUCH COLDER AIR THEN
FLOODING ACROSS THE AREA THROUGH THE BALANCE OF THE PERIOD.
CONSEQUENTLY...OUR REGION WILL FEEL A NUMBER OF STRONG IMPACTS
THAT ARE OUTLINED BELOW.

1. STRONG WINDS...IN THE WAKE OF THE COLD FRONT A STRONG
SOUTHWESTERLY TO WESTERLY FLOW OF MUCH COLDER AIR WILL OVERSPREAD
THE REGION LATE THIS AFTERNOON AND THIS EVENING. WITH A TIGHT
PRESSURE GRADIENT IN PLACE... WINDS OF 45-55 KNOTS IN PLACE IN THE
925-80 MB LAYER...AND INCREASINGLY EFFICIENT DOWNWARD MOMENTUM
TRANSPORT DEVELOPING OWING TO THE STRENGTHENING COLD AIR ADVECTION
REGIME...THE BULK OF THE REGION CAN EXPECT TO SEE ADVISORY-LEVEL
GUSTS TO 40-45 KNOTS THROUGH MOST OF TONIGHT...WITH GUSTS
POTENTIALLY APPROACHING 50 KNOTS DOWNWIND OF LAKE ONTARIO.
ACCORDINGLY... WIND ADVISORIES AND HIGH WIND WARNINGS REMAIN IN
EFFECT AS OUTLINED BELOW.

2. RAPIDLY FALLING TEMPERATURES/CHANGEOVER OF PRECIP TO
SNOW/FLASH FREEZE... BEHIND THE COLD FRONT TEMPERATURES WILL
RAPIDLY PLUMMET TO BELOW FREEZING FROM WEST TO EAST THROUGH EARLY
THIS EVENING. THIS WILL RESULT IN THE TRAILING WRAPAROUND RAIN
SHOWERS BEHIND THE COLD FRONT QUICKLY CHANGING OVER TO SNOW AND
PRODUCING SOME LIGHT ACCUMULATIONS BEFORE TAPERING OFF LATER ON
THIS EVENING...THOUGH THE SNOWFALL WILL BE EXACERBATED BY THE
AFOREMENTIONED STRONG WINDS WHICH WILL ALSO LEAD TO CONSIDERABLE
BLOWING SNOW AND ATTENDANT REDUCTIONS IN VSBY. OF POTENTIALLY
GREATER CONCERN TO TRAVELERS IS THE POTENTIAL FOR A FLASH FREEZE
AND RESULTANT BLACK ICE FORMATION WHERE AREA ROADWAYS REMAIN
WET...PARTICULARLY ON ELEVATED SURFACES SUCH AS BRIDGES AND
OVERPASSES. A BROADBRUSH SPECIAL WEATHER STATEMENT WAS ISSUED
EARLY THIS AFTERNOON TO COVER THIS LATTER POTENTIAL.

3. LAKE EFFECT...THE INCOMING COLDER AIRMASS WILL ALSO LEAD TO
THE RAPID DEVELOPMENT OF SIGNIFICANT LAKE EFFECT SNOW EAST OF BOTH
LAKES THIS EVENING...WITH THIS ACTIVITY THEN CONTINUING THROUGH
MONDAY.

OFF LAKE ERIE...THE GENERAL WESTERLY FLOW WILL LEAD TO THE
DEVELOPMENT OF LAKE SNOWS ACROSS THE SKI COUNTRY OF SOUTHERN ERIE
AND WYOMING COUNTIES AND THE WESTERN SOUTHERN TIER THIS
EVENING...WITH THIS ACTIVITY THEN REMAINING IN THIS SAME GENERAL
AREA AND PICKING UP SOME IN INTENSITY OVERNIGHT AND MONDAY MORNING
AS LAKE EQUILIBRIUM LEVELS RISE TO 10-11 KFT...AND THE AIRMASS
COOLS/MOISTURE DEEPENS BELOW THIS LEVEL. GIVEN THE INCREASINGLY
FAVORABLE SETUP...WARNING-WORTHY SNOW AMOUNTS OF AROUND OR A
LITTLE OVER A FOOT STILL APPEAR TO BE A GOOD BET WITHIN THE MOST
PERSISTENT SNOWS IN THIS AREA TONIGHT AND MONDAY... WITH ADVISORY-
TYPE ACCUMULATIONS OF 4 TO 8 INCHES LIKELY MAKING IT AS FAR EAST
AS NORTHWESTERN PORTIONS OF ALLEGANY COUNTY...WHERE A NEW LAKE
EFFECT SNOW ADVISORY HAS BEEN HOISTED. COMPLICATING ALL THIS WILL
BE THE AFOREMENTIONED STRONG WINDS...WHICH WILL LEAD TO
CONSIDERABLE BLOWING AND DRIFTING SNOW.

AS WE GET INTO MONDAY AFTERNOON...THE LOW LEVEL FLOW WILL BEGIN
TO BACK MORE WEST-SOUTHWESTERLY AS SURFACE-BASED RIDGING AND DRIER
AIR NOSES NORTHWARD FROM THE OHIO VALLEY...AND AS A CLIPPER SYSTEM
DIVES INTO THE UPPER GREAT LAKES. IN CONJUNCTION WITH INVERSION
HEIGHTS AND LAKE EQLS BEGINNING TO DROP OFF A BIT...THIS SHOULD
RESULT IN THE LAKE SNOWS LIFTING NORTHWARD INTO THE BUFFALO
SOUTHTOWNS DURING THE AFTERNOON AND WEAKENING SOME...BEFORE
DRIFTING FURTHER NORTH ACROSS THE NIAGARA FRONTIER MONDAY EVENING
/AS DISCUSSED BELOW/. THE ABOVE SAID...AT THIS POINT IT LOOKS LIKE
NORTHERN ERIE COUNTY AND PORTIONS OF GENESEE COUNTY COULD SEE AS
MUCH AS 3 TO 6 INCHES OF ACCUMULATION OUT OF THIS BETWEEN MONDAY
AFTERNOON AND MONDAY EVENING...SO HAVE HOISTED A LAKE EFFECT SNOW
ADVISORY FOR THESE AREAS.

OFF LAKE ONTARIO...LAKE EFFECT SNOW WILL DEVELOP THIS EVENING ON
AN INITIALLY WEST-SOUTHWESTERLY FLOW...BEFORE INTENSIFYING AND
SHIFTING A LITTLE FURTHER SOUTH INTO THE TUG HILL REGION OVERNIGHT
AS THE LOW LEVEL FLOW VEERS MORE WESTERLY...AND THE AIRMASS GROWS
COLDER...LAKE EQLS RISE...AND MOISTURE DEEPENS. THEREAFTER...THE
LAKE SNOWS SHOULD LARGELY CONTINUE ACROSS THE TUG HILL REGION
RIGHT THROUGH MONDAY... WITH JUST SOME SUBTLE WOBBLES IN BAND
POSITION FROM TIME TO TIME.

WITH LAKE EQLS INCREASING TO AROUND 13 KFT IN THE PRESENCE OF AN
INCREASINGLY WELL-ALIGNED FLOW ACROSS THE LONG AXIS OF THE LAKE
AND A POSSIBLE UPSTREAM CONNECTION TO THE UPPER LAKES
DEVELOPING... CONDITIONS APPEAR PRIMED FOR A SOLID PERIOD OF HEAVY
SNOW EAST OF LAKE ONTARIO...WITH AN IMPRESSIVE OMEGA-DENDRITIC
SNOW GROWTH CROSSHAIR SIGNATURE ON BUFKIT SUPPORTING THIS THINKING
AS WELL AS THE POTENTIAL FOR SOME THUNDERSNOW AT TIMES. AT THIS
POINT TOTAL ACCUMULATIONS OF TWO TO THREE FEET APPEAR LIKELY
WITHIN THE MOST PERSISTENT SNOWS ACROSS THE EASTERN LAKE ONTARIO
REGION THROUGH MONDAY NIGHT...FOR WHICH LAKE EFFECT SNOW WARNINGS
WILL OBVIOUSLY REMAIN IN PLACE. AS WITH THE LAKE ERIE
ACTIVITY...THE HEAVY SNOWFALL WILL BE FURTHER EXACERBATED BY THE
STRONG WINDS...WHICH WILL LEAD TO CONSIDERABLE BLOWING AND
DRIFTING SNOW.

OUTSIDE OF THE MAIN LAKE EFFECT AREAS...EXPECT JUST SOME
LINGERING RAIN SHOWERS CHANGING TO SNOW SHOWERS THIS EVENING THEN
TAPERING OFF...WITH JUST SOME LIGHT ACCUMULATIONS POSSIBLE. AFTER
THAT... CONDITIONS SHOULD BE LARGELY DRY ASIDE FROM SOME SCATTERED
LIGHT SNOW SHOWERS AROUND THE PERIPHERY OF THE MAIN LAKE BANDS.

TEMPERATURE-WISE...IT WILL TURN MUCH COLDER WITH READINGS
PLUNGING INTO THE MID TEENS TO LOWER 20S TONIGHT...THEN ONLY
RECOVERING SOME 3 TO 5 DEGREES DURING MONDAY.

&&

.SHORT TERM /MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY NIGHT/...
SIGNIFICANT WINTER WEATHER INCLUDING SEVERAL ROUNDS OF LAKE EFFECT
SNOW SEPARATED BY A CLIPPER AND ARCTIC FRONT ARE EXPECTED THROUGH
THE WEEK. LAKE EFFECT SNOW WARNINGS AND ADVISORIES HAVE BEEN ISSUED
FOR THE FIRST EVENT WITH THE SECOND EVENT LIKELY NEEDING ANOTHER
ROUND OF WINTER HEADLINES IN THE COMING DAYS.

LAKE EFFECT ROUND ONE...

ON MONDAY EVENING LAKE EFFECT SNOW BANDS OFF BOTH LAKES WILL BE IN
THE PROCESS OF LIFTING NORTH ACROSS THE BUFFALO AND WATERTOWN METRO
AREAS IN RESPONSE TO BACKING WINDS AHEAD OF AN APPROACHING CLIPPER
SYSTEM. THIS WILL IMPACT ANY AFTER SCHOOL/WORK ACTIVITIES ACROSS
THESE METRO AREAS AND SURROUNDING SUBURBS WITH BANDS OF MODERATE TO
HEAVY SNOW CAUSING SLICK AND SNOW COVERED ROADS AND LOW
VISIBILITIES. WINDS BACK COMPLETELY TO A SOUTHERLY DIRECTION AFTER
MIDNIGHT MONDAY INTO TUESDAY. THIS WILL CAUSE SOME DISRUPTION IN THE
BANDS DUE TO INCREASING LOW LEVEL WIND SHEAR AND RISING 850MB TEMPS
WHILE THEY LIKELY SHIFT INTO CANADIAN TERRITORY FOR A FEW HOURS
OVERNIGHT. SEE LAKE EFFECT WARNING AND ADVISORY STATEMENTS FOR MORE
DETAILS.

ALBERTA CLIPPER AND ARCTIC FRONT....

THE CLIPPER AND ITS ASSOCIATED ARCTIC FRONT WILL QUICKLY PASS ACROSS
WESTERN AND CENTRAL NEW YORK TUESDAY AND EXIT TO THE EAST TUESDAY
NIGHT BRINGING A WIDESPREAD GENERAL SNOWFALL FOR ALL. WHILE OVERALL
SNOWFALL FROM THIS WILL BE LIGHT /OUTSIDE OF THE SOUTHWARD RETURNING
EMBEDDED LAKE EFFECT BANDS/ THERE ARE CONCERNS FOR A BURST OR SQUALL
OF SNOW ALONG THE LEADING EDGE OF THE ARCTIC FRONT WITH OF PERIOD OF
LOW VISIBILITIES IN BLOWING SNOW BEHIND THE FRONT AS A 40 KNOT LOW
LEVEL JET BRINGS WIND GUSTS OF 25-35 KNOTS.

LAKE EFFECT ROUND TWO...

A SECOND AND POTENTIALLY MORE SIGNIFICANT AND LONGER LASTING LAKE
EFFECT SNOW EVENT IS THEN EXPECTED MIDWEEK BEHIND THIS CLIPPER AS
ARCTIC AIR ARRIVES IN ITS WAKE RAMPING UP LAKE SNOWS AGAIN. THE
STRONGEST PERIOD OF SNOW WOULD LIKELY BE TUESDAY NIGHT INTO
WEDNESDAY WITH LAKE SNOWS THEN CONTINUING THROUGH WEDNESDAY AND
SLOWLY TAPERING OFF INTO THURSDAY.

TUESDAY EVENING...LAKE-INDUCED EQUILIBRIUM LEVELS WILL INCREASE
TOWARD 15KFT AS 850MB TEMPS PLUMMET TO AROUND -18C WHICH IS NEARLY
2SD BELOW NORMAL FOR THIS TIME OF YEAR. STEERING LEVEL FLOW WILL
VEER TO AROUND 280-290 DEGREES WHICH WILL SETTLE THE BANDS SOUTHEAST
OF THE LAKES OVERNIGHT TUESDAY AND MUCH OF WEDNESDAY. BUFKIT TIME-
HEIGHT PROFILES SHOW A STRONG CROSSHAIR SIGNATURE WHERE THE PRIME
DENDRITIC SNOW GROWTH REGION INTERSECTS PLENTIFUL LIFT WITHIN THE
CLOUD LAYER WHICH WILL CONTRIBUTE TO MODERATE TO HIGH SNOWFALL RATES
WITHIN THE BANDS FOR 24 HOURS OR MORE.

ONE CHANGE IN THE MODELS FROM YESTERDAY IS THAT STEERING WINDS MAY
SHIFT AROUND A BIT IN RESPONSE TO A WEAK LOW AND SHORTWAVE THAT MAY
PASS ACROSS THE GREAT LAKES MIDWEEK. WHILE SNOWFALL TOTALS WILL
LIKELY STILL BE MEASURED IN FEET MAINLY SOUTHEAST OF THE LAKES FOR
THIS SECOND EVENT...THE SHIFTING BANDS WOULD ALLOW FOR MORE AREAS TO
SEE ACCUMULATING SNOWFALL THEN IF THE BANDS BECAME LOCKED IN PLACE.
BASED ON THE 12Z MODELS THE BEST TIMING FOR A SHIFT IN THE SNOW
BAND BACK TO THE NORTH MIGHT BE WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON OR EVENING. THIS
MAKES FOR A BIT MORE OF A DIFFICULT FORECAST AS MINOR FLUCTUATIONS
IN THE LOW LEVEL FLOW WILL CONTROL WHERE THE LAKE BANDS MOVE DURING
THE EVENT. WILL WAIT ANOTHER MODEL RUN OR TWO BEFORE DETERMINING
WHICH AREAS WILL NEED A LAKE EFFECT SNOW WATCH.

TEMPERATUREWISE...MID WINTER TEMPERATURES WILL BE FELT ACROSS THE
ENTIRE FORECAST AREA THIS WEEK WITH HIGHS ONLY REACHING INTO THE 20S
TO LOW 30S EACH DAY AND DIPPING INTO THE TEENS EACH NIGHT.

&&

.LONG TERM /THURSDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
LAKE EFFECT EVENT NUMBER TWO LOOKS TO WIND DOWN THURSDAY AND
THURSDAY NIGHT AS SURFACE RIDGING...RISING HEIGHTS AND WARM AIR
ADVECTION COMBINE TO LOWER LAKE INDUCED EQUILIBRIUM LEVELS BELOW
5KFT AND RAISE THE SNOW GROWTH LEVEL ABOVE 10KFT THURSDAY NIGHT.
THERE MAY EVEN BE A THREAT FOR SOME FREEZING DRIZZLE ON THE TAIL
END FOR FRIDAY.

LOOKING OUT INTO NEXT WEEKEND...GFS AND ECMWF MODELS SHOW ANOTHER
500MB TROUGH DIGGING DOWN ACROSS THE GREAT LAKES WITH ONE OR MORE
LOWS/WAVES PASSING SOUTHEAST OF THE FORECAST AREA. THIS WOULD FAVOR
A CHANCE OF SOME WIDESPREAD SYNOPTIC SNOW ASSOCIATED SO THIS HAS
BEEN INCLUDED IN THE LATEST FORECAST PACKAGE. TEMPERATURES WILL
REMAIN NEAR OR BELOW NORMAL MID JANUARY LEVELS.

&&

.AVIATION /21Z SUNDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
LOW PRESSURE OVER SOUTHERN ONTARIO WILL CONTINUE TO DEEPEN AS IT
LIFTS NORTHEASTWARD INTO QUEBEC BY THIS EVENING...THEN FURTHER
NORTH ACROSS QUEBEC PROVINCE TONIGHT AND MONDAY. IN THE
PROCESS...IT WILL SWEEP ITS TRAILING STRONG COLD FRONT ACROSS THE
AREA THROUGH EARLY THIS EVENING... WITH MUCH COLDER AIR THEN
FLOODING ACROSS THE AREA THROUGH THE BALANCE OF THE PERIOD.

OCCASIONAL RAIN SHOWERS OUT AHEAD OF THE FRONT WILL QUICKLY MIX
WITH AND CHANGE TO SNOW FOLLOWING ITS PASSAGE THIS AFTERNOON AND
EARLY THIS EVENING...WITH THE SNOW THEN TAPERING OFF THROUGH THE
MID TO LATE EVENING HOURS. THE EXCEPTION TO THIS WILL BE EAST OF
THE LAKES...WHERE LAKE EFFECT SNOW WILL DEVELOP THIS EVENING ON A
GENERAL WESTERLY FLOW AND INTENSIFY OVERNIGHT...BEFORE SLOWLY
LIFTING NORTHWARD MONDAY AFTERNOON AND EARLY MONDAY EVENING AS THE
LOW LEVEL FLOW TURNS MORE WEST-SOUTHWESTERLY.

IN TERMS OF FLIGHT CONDITIONS...EXPECT A GENERAL MIX OF MVFR/LOW
VFR OUT AHEAD OF THE COLD FRONT TO DETERIORATE TO IFR/MVFR FOR A
PERIOD FOLLOWING ITS PASSAGE THIS AFTERNOON AND EVENING...BEFORE
IMPROVING BACK TO VFR OUTSIDE OF ANY LAKE EFFECT SNOW
TONIGHT...AND THEN REMAINING VFR OUTSIDE OF ANY LAKE EFFECT SNOW
ON MONDAY. WITHIN THE LAKE SNOWS...GENERAL LIFR/IFR WILL PREVAIL
TONIGHT AND MONDAY.

FINALLY...STRONG SOUTHWESTERLY AND WESTERLY WINDS WILL DEVELOP IN
THE WAKE OF THE COLD FRONT THIS AFTERNOON AND EVENING WITH SURFACE
GUSTS TO 40-45 KTS LIKELY AREAWIDE...BEFORE SLOWLY DIMINISHING
OVERNIGHT AND MONDAY.

OUTLOOK...
MONDAY NIGHT...IFR/MVFR IN WEAKENING LAKE EFFECT SNOWS NORTHEAST OF
THE LAKES...WITH GENERAL VFR CONDITIONS PREVAILING ELSEWHERE.
TUESDAY...SNOW LIKELY AND AREAS OF LAKE EFFECT SNOW...WITH IFR
PREVAILING WITHIN ANY SNOW.
WEDNESDAY AND THURSDAY...AREAS OF LAKE EFFECT SNOW/IFR EAST OF THE
LAKES...WITH MVFR/VFR AND SCATTERED SNOW SHOWERS ELSEWHERE.
FRIDAY...MVFR/VFR WITH A CHANCE OF SNOW SHOWERS.

&&

.MARINE...
...GALE WARNINGS REMAIN IN EFFECT ON BOTH LAKES ERIE AND ONTARIO
INTO MONDAY...

RAPIDLY DEEPENING LOW PRESSURE OVER SOUTHERN ONTARIO WILL MOVE
INTO SOUTHERN QUEBEC BY THIS EVENING...WHILE SWEEPING A STRONG
COLD FRONT ACROSS THE LOWER LAKES REGION. IN THE WAKE OF THE
FRONT...A PERIOD OF GALE FORCE WINDS WILL QUICKLY ENSUE AND LAST
INTO MONDAY.

LOOKING A BIT FURTHER AHEAD...ANOTHER PERIOD OF NEAR GALE FORCE
WINDS WILL BE POSSIBLE TUESDAY AFTERNOON AND EVENING AS A CLIPPER
SYSTEM TRACKS ACROSS THE GREAT LAKES.

&&

.BUF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NY...WIND ADVISORY UNTIL 4 AM EST MONDAY FOR NYZ001>006-010>014-
     019>021-085.
     LAKE EFFECT SNOW WARNING UNTIL 7 PM EST MONDAY FOR NYZ012-019-
     020-085.
     HIGH WIND WARNING UNTIL 4 AM EST MONDAY FOR NYZ007-008.
     LAKE EFFECT SNOW WARNING FROM 10 PM THIS EVENING TO 4 AM EST
     TUESDAY FOR NYZ006>008.
     LAKE EFFECT SNOW ADVISORY UNTIL 1 PM EST MONDAY FOR NYZ021.
     LAKE EFFECT SNOW ADVISORY FROM NOON MONDAY TO 1 AM EST TUESDAY
     FOR NYZ010-011.
MARINE...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 7 PM EST MONDAY FOR LEZ020.
         GALE WARNING UNTIL 7 AM EST MONDAY FOR LEZ040-041.
         SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 7 PM EST MONDAY FOR LOZ030.
         GALE WARNING UNTIL 4 PM EST MONDAY FOR LOZ043>045-063>065.
         GALE WARNING UNTIL 10 AM EST MONDAY FOR LOZ042-062.

&&

SYNOPSIS...JJR
NEAR TERM...JJR
SHORT TERM...SMITH
LONG TERM...SMITH
AVIATION...JJR
MARINE...JJR
Hazardous weather outlook, Jan 10, 4:51 PM EST, 16 minutes before
HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BUFFALO NY
451 PM EST SUN JAN 10 2016

NYZ001-002-112200-
NIAGARA-ORLEANS-
451 PM EST SUN JAN 10 2016

...WIND ADVISORY IN EFFECT UNTIL 4 AM EST MONDAY...

THIS HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK IS FOR PORTIONS OF WESTERN NEW YORK.

.DAY ONE...TONIGHT.

PLEASE LISTEN TO NOAA WEATHER RADIO OR GO TO WEATHER.GOV ON THE
INTERNET FOR MORE INFORMATION ABOUT THE FOLLOWING HAZARDS.

   WIND ADVISORY.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...MONDAY THROUGH SATURDAY.

A CLIPPER SYSTEM WILL BRING WIDESPREAD LIGHT SNOW TUESDAY AND
TUESDAY NIGHT. A BAND OF HEAVY LAKE ENHANCED SNOW MAY DEVELOP
TUESDAY AFTERNOON AND EVENING ACROSS THE NIAGARA FRONTIER WITH
SIGNIFICANT ACCUMULATIONS. INCREASING WIND SPEEDS LATER TUESDAY
AND TUESDAY NIGHT WILL CREATE BLOWING AND DRIFTING SNOW...REDUCED
VISIBILITIES AND VERY POOR TRAVEL CONDITIONS.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

SPOTTER ACTIVATION IS NOT EXPECTED AT THIS TIME.

THIS PRODUCT...ALONG WITH OTHER WATCHES...WARNINGS...ADVISORIES...
AND STATEMENTS ISSUED BY THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE OFFICE IN
BUFFALO CAN BE FOUND ON THE INTERNET AT HTTP://WWW.WEATHER.GOV/BUF

NYZ010-112200-
NORTHERN ERIE-
451 PM EST SUN JAN 10 2016

...LAKESHORE FLOOD ADVISORY IN EFFECT UNTIL 10 PM EST THIS EVENING...
...WIND ADVISORY IN EFFECT UNTIL 4 AM EST MONDAY...
...LAKE EFFECT SNOW ADVISORY IN EFFECT FROM NOON MONDAY TO 1 AM EST
TUESDAY...

THIS HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK IS FOR PORTIONS OF WESTERN NEW YORK.

.DAY ONE...TONIGHT.

PLEASE LISTEN TO NOAA WEATHER RADIO OR GO TO WEATHER.GOV ON THE
INTERNET FOR MORE INFORMATION ABOUT THE FOLLOWING HAZARDS.

   WIND ADVISORY.
   LAKESHORE FLOOD ADVISORY.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...MONDAY THROUGH SATURDAY.

PLEASE LISTEN TO NOAA WEATHER RADIO OR GO TO WEATHER.GOV ON THE
INTERNET FOR MORE INFORMATION ABOUT THE FOLLOWING HAZARDS.

   LAKE EFFECT SNOW ADVISORY.

A CLIPPER SYSTEM WILL BRING WIDESPREAD LIGHT SNOW TUESDAY AND
TUESDAY NIGHT. A BAND OF HEAVY LAKE ENHANCED SNOW MAY DEVELOP
TUESDAY AFTERNOON AND EVENING ACROSS THE NIAGARA FRONTIER WITH
SIGNIFICANT ACCUMULATIONS. INCREASING WIND SPEEDS LATER TUESDAY
AND TUESDAY NIGHT WILL CREATE BLOWING AND DRIFTING SNOW...REDUCED
VISIBILITIES AND VERY POOR TRAVEL CONDITIONS.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

SPOTTER ACTIVATION IS NOT EXPECTED AT THIS TIME.

THIS PRODUCT...ALONG WITH OTHER WATCHES...WARNINGS...ADVISORIES...
AND STATEMENTS ISSUED BY THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE OFFICE IN
BUFFALO CAN BE FOUND ON THE INTERNET AT HTTP://WWW.WEATHER.GOV/BUF

NYZ011-112200-
GENESEE-
451 PM EST SUN JAN 10 2016

...WIND ADVISORY IN EFFECT UNTIL 4 AM EST MONDAY...
...LAKE EFFECT SNOW ADVISORY IN EFFECT FROM NOON MONDAY TO 1 AM EST
TUESDAY...

THIS HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK IS FOR PORTIONS OF WESTERN NEW YORK.

.DAY ONE...TONIGHT.

PLEASE LISTEN TO NOAA WEATHER RADIO OR GO TO WEATHER.GOV ON THE
INTERNET FOR MORE INFORMATION ABOUT THE FOLLOWING HAZARDS.

   WIND ADVISORY.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...MONDAY THROUGH SATURDAY.

PLEASE LISTEN TO NOAA WEATHER RADIO OR GO TO WEATHER.GOV ON THE
INTERNET FOR MORE INFORMATION ABOUT THE FOLLOWING HAZARDS.

   LAKE EFFECT SNOW ADVISORY.

A CLIPPER SYSTEM WILL BRING WIDESPREAD LIGHT SNOW TUESDAY AND
TUESDAY NIGHT. A BAND OF HEAVY LAKE ENHANCED SNOW MAY DEVELOP
TUESDAY AFTERNOON AND EVENING ACROSS THE NIAGARA FRONTIER WITH
SIGNIFICANT ACCUMULATIONS. INCREASING WIND SPEEDS LATER TUESDAY
AND TUESDAY NIGHT WILL CREATE BLOWING AND DRIFTING SNOW...REDUCED
VISIBILITIES AND VERY POOR TRAVEL CONDITIONS.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

SPOTTER ACTIVATION IS NOT EXPECTED AT THIS TIME.

THIS PRODUCT...ALONG WITH OTHER WATCHES...WARNINGS...ADVISORIES...
AND STATEMENTS ISSUED BY THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE OFFICE IN
BUFFALO CAN BE FOUND ON THE INTERNET AT HTTP://WWW.WEATHER.GOV/BUF

NYZ021-112200-
ALLEGANY-
451 PM EST SUN JAN 10 2016

...WIND ADVISORY IN EFFECT UNTIL 4 AM EST MONDAY...
...LAKE EFFECT SNOW ADVISORY IN EFFECT UNTIL 1 PM EST MONDAY...

THIS HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK IS FOR PORTIONS OF WESTERN NEW YORK.

.DAY ONE...TONIGHT.

PLEASE LISTEN TO NOAA WEATHER RADIO OR GO TO WEATHER.GOV ON THE
INTERNET FOR MORE INFORMATION ABOUT THE FOLLOWING HAZARDS.

   WIND ADVISORY.
   LAKE EFFECT SNOW ADVISORY.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...MONDAY THROUGH SATURDAY.

PLEASE LISTEN TO NOAA WEATHER RADIO OR GO TO WEATHER.GOV ON THE
INTERNET FOR MORE INFORMATION ABOUT THE FOLLOWING HAZARDS.

   LAKE EFFECT SNOW ADVISORY.
   WIND ADVISORY.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

SPOTTER ACTIVATION IS NOT EXPECTED AT THIS TIME.

THIS PRODUCT...ALONG WITH OTHER WATCHES...WARNINGS...ADVISORIES...
AND STATEMENTS ISSUED BY THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE OFFICE IN
BUFFALO CAN BE FOUND ON THE INTERNET AT HTTP://WWW.WEATHER.GOV/BUF

NYZ019-085-112200-
CHAUTAUQUA-SOUTHERN ERIE-
451 PM EST SUN JAN 10 2016

...LAKESHORE FLOOD ADVISORY IN EFFECT UNTIL 10 PM EST THIS EVENING...
...WIND ADVISORY IN EFFECT UNTIL 4 AM EST MONDAY...
...LAKE EFFECT SNOW WARNING IN EFFECT UNTIL 7 PM EST MONDAY...

THIS HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK IS FOR PORTIONS OF WESTERN NEW YORK.

.DAY ONE...TONIGHT.

PLEASE LISTEN TO NOAA WEATHER RADIO OR GO TO WEATHER.GOV ON THE
INTERNET FOR MORE INFORMATION ABOUT THE FOLLOWING HAZARDS.

   WIND ADVISORY.
   LAKESHORE FLOOD ADVISORY.
   LAKE EFFECT SNOW WARNING.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...MONDAY THROUGH SATURDAY.

PLEASE LISTEN TO NOAA WEATHER RADIO OR GO TO WEATHER.GOV ON THE
INTERNET FOR MORE INFORMATION ABOUT THE FOLLOWING HAZARDS.

   LAKE EFFECT SNOW WARNING.

A CLIPPER SYSTEM WILL BRING A GENERAL LIGHT SNOW TUESDAY AND
TUESDAY NIGHT. ANOTHER ROUND OF MODERATE TO HEAVY LAKE EFFECT
SNOW IS EXPECTED TO DEVELOP TUESDAY NIGHT BEHIND THIS SYSTEM AND
LAST THROUGH WEDNESDAY AND POSSIBLY THURSDAY. INCREASING WIND
SPEEDS LATER TUESDAY AND TUESDAY NIGHT WILL CREATE BLOWING AND
DRIFTING SNOW...REDUCED VISIBILITIES AND VERY POOR TRAVEL
CONDITIONS.

WHILE THE INITIAL SNOW ON MONDAY SHOULD NOT BE DOWNPLAYED...THE
MIDDLE PORTION OF THE WEEK HAS THE POTENTIAL TO BECOME A HIGH
IMPACT LAKE EFFECT EVENT WITH SEVERAL FEET OF SNOW POSSIBLY
ACCUMULATING IN NARROW REGIONS OVER RELATIVELY SHORT PERIODS OF
TIME.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

SPOTTER ACTIVATION IS NOT EXPECTED AT THIS TIME.

THIS PRODUCT...ALONG WITH OTHER WATCHES...WARNINGS...ADVISORIES...
AND STATEMENTS ISSUED BY THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE OFFICE IN
BUFFALO CAN BE FOUND ON THE INTERNET AT HTTP://WWW.WEATHER.GOV/BUF

NYZ012-020-112200-
WYOMING-CATTARAUGUS-
451 PM EST SUN JAN 10 2016

...WIND ADVISORY IN EFFECT UNTIL 4 AM EST MONDAY...
...LAKE EFFECT SNOW WARNING IN EFFECT UNTIL 7 PM EST MONDAY...

THIS HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK IS FOR PORTIONS OF WESTERN NEW YORK.

.DAY ONE...TONIGHT.

PLEASE LISTEN TO NOAA WEATHER RADIO OR GO TO WEATHER.GOV ON THE
INTERNET FOR MORE INFORMATION ABOUT THE FOLLOWING HAZARDS.

   WIND ADVISORY.
   LAKE EFFECT SNOW WARNING.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...MONDAY THROUGH SATURDAY.

PLEASE LISTEN TO NOAA WEATHER RADIO OR GO TO WEATHER.GOV ON THE
INTERNET FOR MORE INFORMATION ABOUT THE FOLLOWING HAZARDS.

   LAKE EFFECT SNOW WARNING.

A CLIPPER SYSTEM WILL BRING A GENERAL LIGHT SNOW TUESDAY AND
TUESDAY NIGHT. ANOTHER ROUND OF MODERATE TO HEAVY LAKE EFFECT
SNOW IS EXPECTED TO DEVELOP TUESDAY NIGHT BEHIND THIS SYSTEM AND
LAST THROUGH WEDNESDAY AND POSSIBLY THURSDAY. INCREASING WIND
SPEEDS LATER TUESDAY AND TUESDAY NIGHT WILL CREATE BLOWING AND
DRIFTING SNOW...REDUCED VISIBILITIES AND VERY POOR TRAVEL
CONDITIONS.

WHILE THE INITIAL SNOW ON MONDAY SHOULD NOT BE DOWNPLAYED...THE
MIDDLE PORTION OF THE WEEK HAS THE POTENTIAL TO BECOME A HIGH
IMPACT LAKE EFFECT EVENT WITH SEVERAL FEET OF SNOW POSSIBLY
ACCUMULATING IN NARROW REGIONS OVER RELATIVELY SHORT PERIODS OF
TIME.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

SPOTTER ACTIVATION IS NOT EXPECTED AT THIS TIME.

THIS PRODUCT...ALONG WITH OTHER WATCHES...WARNINGS...ADVISORIES...
AND STATEMENTS ISSUED BY THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE OFFICE IN
BUFFALO CAN BE FOUND ON THE INTERNET AT HTTP://WWW.WEATHER.GOV/BUF

NYZ003-013-014-112200-
MONROE-LIVINGSTON-ONTARIO-
451 PM EST SUN JAN 10 2016

...WIND ADVISORY IN EFFECT UNTIL 4 AM EST MONDAY...

THIS HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK IS FOR PORTIONS OF WESTERN NEW YORK.

.DAY ONE...TONIGHT.

PLEASE LISTEN TO NOAA WEATHER RADIO OR GO TO WEATHER.GOV ON THE
INTERNET FOR MORE INFORMATION ABOUT THE FOLLOWING HAZARDS.

   WIND ADVISORY.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...MONDAY THROUGH SATURDAY.

THE PROBABILITY FOR WIDESPREAD HAZARDOUS WEATHER IS LOW.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

SPOTTER ACTIVATION IS NOT EXPECTED AT THIS TIME.

THIS PRODUCT...ALONG WITH OTHER WATCHES...WARNINGS...ADVISORIES...
AND STATEMENTS ISSUED BY THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE OFFICE IN
BUFFALO CAN BE FOUND ON THE INTERNET AT HTTP://WWW.WEATHER.GOV/BUF

NYZ004-005-112200-
WAYNE-NORTHERN CAYUGA-
451 PM EST SUN JAN 10 2016

...WIND ADVISORY IN EFFECT UNTIL 4 AM EST MONDAY...

THIS HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK IS FOR PORTIONS OF CENTRAL NEW YORK
AND WESTERN NEW YORK.

.DAY ONE...TONIGHT.

PLEASE LISTEN TO NOAA WEATHER RADIO OR GO TO WEATHER.GOV ON THE
INTERNET FOR MORE INFORMATION ABOUT THE FOLLOWING HAZARDS.

   WIND ADVISORY.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...MONDAY THROUGH SATURDAY.

A CLIPPER SYSTEM WILL BRING A GENERAL LIGHT SNOW TUESDAY AND
TUESDAY NIGHT. EXPECT WINDS TO INCREASE TUESDAY NIGHT WITH BLOWING
SNOW AND REDUCED VISIBILITIES. HEAVY LAKE EFFECT SNOW IS EXPECTED
TO DEVELOP WEDNESDAY AND POSSIBLY THURSDAY BEHIND THIS SYSTEM.
SOME OF THIS MAY IMPACT AREAS SOUTHEAST OF LAKE ONTARIO AT TIMES.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

SPOTTER ACTIVATION IS NOT EXPECTED AT THIS TIME.

THIS PRODUCT...ALONG WITH OTHER WATCHES...WARNINGS...ADVISORIES...
AND STATEMENTS ISSUED BY THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE OFFICE IN
BUFFALO CAN BE FOUND ON THE INTERNET AT HTTP://WWW.WEATHER.GOV/BUF

NYZ007-008-112200-
JEFFERSON-LEWIS-
451 PM EST SUN JAN 10 2016

...HIGH WIND WARNING IN EFFECT UNTIL 4 AM EST MONDAY...
...LAKE EFFECT SNOW WARNING IN EFFECT FROM 10 PM THIS EVENING TO
4 AM EST TUESDAY...

THIS HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK IS FOR PORTIONS OF CENTRAL NEW YORK.

.DAY ONE...TONIGHT.

PLEASE LISTEN TO NOAA WEATHER RADIO OR GO TO WEATHER.GOV ON THE
INTERNET FOR MORE INFORMATION ABOUT THE FOLLOWING HAZARDS.

   HIGH WIND WARNING.
   LAKE EFFECT SNOW WARNING.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...MONDAY THROUGH SATURDAY.

PLEASE LISTEN TO NOAA WEATHER RADIO OR GO TO WEATHER.GOV ON THE
INTERNET FOR MORE INFORMATION ABOUT THE FOLLOWING HAZARDS.

   LAKE EFFECT SNOW WARNING.

A CLIPPER SYSTEM WILL BRING A GENERAL LIGHT SNOW TUESDAY AND
TUESDAY NIGHT. MORE HEAVY LAKE EFFECT SNOW WILL DEVELOP BEHIND
THIS SYSTEM LATE TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY AND THURSDAY.
INCREASING WIND SPEEDS TUESDAY NIGHT WILL CREATE BLOWING AND
DRIFTING SNOW...REDUCED VISIBILITIES AND VERY POOR TRAVEL
CONDITIONS.

WHILE THE INITIAL SNOW ON MONDAY SHOULD NOT BE DOWNPLAYED...THE
MIDDLE PORTION OF THE WEEK HAS THE POTENTIAL TO BECOME A HIGH
IMPACT LAKE EFFECT EVENT WITH SEVERAL FEET OF SNOW POSSIBLY
ACCUMULATING IN NARROW REGIONS OVER RELATIVELY SHORT PERIODS OF
TIME.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

SPOTTER ACTIVATION IS NOT EXPECTED AT THIS TIME.

THIS PRODUCT...ALONG WITH OTHER WATCHES...WARNINGS...ADVISORIES...
AND STATEMENTS ISSUED BY THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE OFFICE IN
BUFFALO CAN BE FOUND ON THE INTERNET AT HTTP://WWW.WEATHER.GOV/BUF

NYZ006-112200-
OSWEGO-
451 PM EST SUN JAN 10 2016

...WIND ADVISORY IN EFFECT UNTIL 4 AM EST MONDAY...
...LAKE EFFECT SNOW WARNING IN EFFECT FROM 10 PM THIS EVENING TO
4 AM EST TUESDAY...

THIS HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK IS FOR PORTIONS OF CENTRAL NEW YORK.

.DAY ONE...TONIGHT.

PLEASE LISTEN TO NOAA WEATHER RADIO OR GO TO WEATHER.GOV ON THE
INTERNET FOR MORE INFORMATION ABOUT THE FOLLOWING HAZARDS.

   WIND ADVISORY.
   LAKE EFFECT SNOW WARNING.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...MONDAY THROUGH SATURDAY.

PLEASE LISTEN TO NOAA WEATHER RADIO OR GO TO WEATHER.GOV ON THE
INTERNET FOR MORE INFORMATION ABOUT THE FOLLOWING HAZARDS.

   LAKE EFFECT SNOW WARNING.

A CLIPPER SYSTEM WILL BRING A GENERAL LIGHT SNOW TUESDAY AND
TUESDAY NIGHT. MORE HEAVY LAKE EFFECT SNOW WILL DEVELOP BEHIND
THIS SYSTEM LATE TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY AND THURSDAY.
INCREASING WIND SPEEDS TUESDAY NIGHT WILL CREATE BLOWING AND
DRIFTING SNOW...REDUCED VISIBILITIES AND VERY POOR TRAVEL
CONDITIONS.

WHILE THE INITIAL SNOW ON MONDAY SHOULD NOT BE DOWNPLAYED...THE
MIDDLE PORTION OF THE WEEK HAS THE POTENTIAL TO BECOME A HIGH
IMPACT LAKE EFFECT EVENT WITH SEVERAL FEET OF SNOW POSSIBLY
ACCUMULATING IN NARROW REGIONS OVER RELATIVELY SHORT PERIODS OF
TIME.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

SPOTTER ACTIVATION IS NOT EXPECTED AT THIS TIME.

THIS PRODUCT...ALONG WITH OTHER WATCHES...WARNINGS...ADVISORIES...
AND STATEMENTS ISSUED BY THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE OFFICE IN
BUFFALO CAN BE FOUND ON THE INTERNET AT HTTP://WWW.WEATHER.GOV/BUF

LEZ040-041-112200-
LAKE ERIE NEARSHORE WATERS FROM RIPLEY TO DUNKIRK-
LAKE ERIE NEARSHORE WATERS FROM DUNKIRK TO BUFFALO-
451 PM EST SUN JAN 10 2016

...GALE WARNING IN EFFECT UNTIL 7 AM EST MONDAY...

THIS HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK IS FOR PORTIONS OF LAKE ERIE.

.DAY ONE...TONIGHT.

PLEASE LISTEN TO NOAA WEATHER RADIO OR GO TO WEATHER.GOV ON THE
INTERNET FOR MORE INFORMATION ABOUT THE FOLLOWING HAZARDS.

   GALE WARNING.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...MONDAY THROUGH SATURDAY.

PLEASE LISTEN TO NOAA WEATHER RADIO OR GO TO WEATHER.GOV ON THE
INTERNET FOR MORE INFORMATION ABOUT THE FOLLOWING HAZARDS.

   GALE WARNING.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

SPOTTER ACTIVATION IS NOT EXPECTED AT THIS TIME.

THIS PRODUCT...ALONG WITH OTHER WATCHES...WARNINGS...ADVISORIES...
AND STATEMENTS ISSUED BY THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE OFFICE IN
BUFFALO CAN BE FOUND ON THE INTERNET AT HTTP://WWW.WEATHER.GOV/BUF

LEZ020-LOZ030-SLZ022-112200-
UPPER NIAGARA RIVER AND BUFFALO HARBOR-LOWER NIAGARA RIVER-
SAINT LAWRENCE RIVER FROM CAPE VINCENT TO OGDENSBURG-
451 PM EST SUN JAN 10 2016

THIS HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK IS FOR PORTIONS OF LAKE ERIE...LAKE
ONTARIO AND SAINT LAWRENCE RIVER.

.DAY ONE...TONIGHT.

THE PROBABILITY FOR WIDESPREAD HAZARDOUS WEATHER IS LOW.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...MONDAY THROUGH SATURDAY.

THE PROBABILITY FOR WIDESPREAD HAZARDOUS WEATHER IS LOW.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

SPOTTER ACTIVATION IS NOT EXPECTED AT THIS TIME.

THIS PRODUCT...ALONG WITH OTHER WATCHES...WARNINGS...ADVISORIES...
AND STATEMENTS ISSUED BY THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE OFFICE IN
BUFFALO CAN BE FOUND ON THE INTERNET AT HTTP://WWW.WEATHER.GOV/BUF

LOZ043>045-063>065-112200-
LAKE ONTARIO NEARSHORE WATERS FROM HAMLIN BEACH TO SODUS BAY-
LAKE ONTARIO NEARSHORE WATERS FROM SODUS BAY TO MEXICO BAY-
LAKE ONTARIO NEARSHORE WATERS FROM MEXICO BAY TO THE SAINT LAWRENCE
RIVER-LAKE ONTARIO OPEN WATERS FROM HAMLIN BEACH TO SODUS BAY-
LAKE ONTARIO OPEN WATERS FROM SODUS BAY TO MEXICO BAY-
LAKE ONTARIO OPEN WATERS FROM MEXICO BAY TO THE SAINT LAWRENCE RIVER-
451 PM EST SUN JAN 10 2016

...GALE WARNING IN EFFECT UNTIL 4 PM EST MONDAY...

THIS HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK IS FOR PORTIONS OF LAKE ONTARIO.

.DAY ONE...TONIGHT.

PLEASE LISTEN TO NOAA WEATHER RADIO OR GO TO WEATHER.GOV ON THE
INTERNET FOR MORE INFORMATION ABOUT THE FOLLOWING HAZARDS.

   GALE WARNING.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...MONDAY THROUGH SATURDAY.

PLEASE LISTEN TO NOAA WEATHER RADIO OR GO TO WEATHER.GOV ON THE
INTERNET FOR MORE INFORMATION ABOUT THE FOLLOWING HAZARDS.

   GALE WARNING.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

SPOTTER ACTIVATION IS NOT EXPECTED AT THIS TIME.

THIS PRODUCT...ALONG WITH OTHER WATCHES...WARNINGS...ADVISORIES...
AND STATEMENTS ISSUED BY THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE OFFICE IN
BUFFALO CAN BE FOUND ON THE INTERNET AT HTTP://WWW.WEATHER.GOV/BUF

LOZ042-062-112200-
LAKE ONTARIO NEARSHORE WATERS FROM THE NIAGARA RIVER TO HAMLIN BEACH-
LAKE ONTARIO OPEN WATERS FROM THE NIAGARA RIVER TO HAMLIN BEACH-
451 PM EST SUN JAN 10 2016

...GALE WARNING IN EFFECT UNTIL 10 AM EST MONDAY...

THIS HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK IS FOR PORTIONS OF LAKE ONTARIO.

.DAY ONE...TONIGHT.

PLEASE LISTEN TO NOAA WEATHER RADIO OR GO TO WEATHER.GOV ON THE
INTERNET FOR MORE INFORMATION ABOUT THE FOLLOWING HAZARDS.

   GALE WARNING.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...MONDAY THROUGH SATURDAY.

PLEASE LISTEN TO NOAA WEATHER RADIO OR GO TO WEATHER.GOV ON THE
INTERNET FOR MORE INFORMATION ABOUT THE FOLLOWING HAZARDS.

   GALE WARNING.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

SPOTTER ACTIVATION IS NOT EXPECTED AT THIS TIME.

THIS PRODUCT...ALONG WITH OTHER WATCHES...WARNINGS...ADVISORIES...
AND STATEMENTS ISSUED BY THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE OFFICE IN
BUFFALO CAN BE FOUND ON THE INTERNET AT HTTP://WWW.WEATHER.GOV/BUF

In the hours before

Special weather statement, Jan 10, 2:16 PM EST, 2 hours 51 minutes before
SPECIAL WEATHER STATEMENT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BUFFALO NY
216 PM EST SUN JAN 10 2016

NYZ001>008-010>014-019>021-085-110100-
NIAGARA-ORLEANS-MONROE-WAYNE-NORTHERN CAYUGA-OSWEGO-JEFFERSON-
LEWIS-NORTHERN ERIE-GENESEE-WYOMING-LIVINGSTON-ONTARIO-CHAUTAUQUA-
CATTARAUGUS-ALLEGANY-SOUTHERN ERIE-
INCLUDING THE CITIES OF...NIAGARA FALLS...MEDINA...ROCHESTER...
NEWARK...FAIR HAVEN...OSWEGO...WATERTOWN...LOWVILLE...BUFFALO...
BATAVIA...WARSAW...GENESEO...CANANDAIGUA...JAMESTOWN...OLEAN...
WELLSVILLE...ORCHARD PARK...SPRINGVILLE
216 PM EST SUN JAN 10 2016

...RAPID FORMATION OF BLACK ICE IS POSSIBLE ON AREA ROADWAYS
LATE THIS AFTERNOON AND EVENING...

IN THE WAKE OF A STRONG COLD FRONT...TEMPERATURES WILL QUICKLY
PLUNGE TO BELOW FREEZING FROM WEST TO EAST LATE THIS AFTERNOON
AND EARLY THIS EVENING. WHERE AREA ROADWAYS REMAIN WET...THIS
COULD RAPIDLY LEAD TO THE FORMATION OF BLACK ICE...PARTICULARLY
ON ELEVATED SURFACES SUCH AS BRIDGES AND OVERPASSES.

IF YOU WILL BE TRAVELING ACROSS THE REGION LATER THIS AFTERNOON
AND EVENING...BE PREPARED FOR RAPID CHANGES IN ROAD CONDITIONS...
AND BE SURE TO SLOW DOWN AND LEAVE PLENTY OF EXTRA ROOM BETWEEN
BETWEEN YOUR VEHICLE AND OTHERS.

JJR
Special weather statement, Jan 10, 4:15 PM EST, 52 minutes before
SPECIAL WEATHER STATEMENT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BUFFALO NY
415 PM EST SUN JAN 10 2016

NYZ001>003-010>013-019-020-085-110100-
NIAGARA-ORLEANS-MONROE-NORTHERN ERIE-GENESEE-WYOMING-LIVINGSTON-
CHAUTAUQUA-CATTARAUGUS-SOUTHERN ERIE-
INCLUDING THE CITIES OF...NIAGARA FALLS...MEDINA...ROCHESTER...
BUFFALO...BATAVIA...WARSAW...GENESEO...JAMESTOWN...OLEAN...
ORCHARD PARK...SPRINGVILLE
415 PM EST SUN JAN 10 2016

...NEAR-BLIZZARD CONDITIONS WILL IMPACT WESTERN NEW YORK THROUGH
7 PM.... THEN RAPID FORMATION OF BLACK ICE IS POSSIBLE ON AREA
ROADWAYS THIS EVENING...

RAIN WILL RAPIDILY CHANGE TO SNOW EARLY THIS EVENING. SNOW WILL
BECOME HEAVY FOR AN HOUR OR TWO... WITH VISIBILITIES DOWN TO A 1/4
MILE AT TIMES... ALONG WITH BLOWING SNOW DUE TO WIND GUSTS OF 40
TO 45 MPH. THIS AREA OF HEAVY SNOW WILL EXIT THE REGION OVER LAKE
ONTARIO BY 7PM. TRAVEL CONDITIONS WILL RAPIDLY DETERORATE IN THIS
AREA OF HEAVY SNOW...WITH POOR VISIBILTIY... BLOWING SNOW... AND
ROADS BECOMING SLICK ACROSS WESTERN NEW YORK.

IN THE WAKE OF A STRONG COLD FRONT...TEMPERATURES WILL QUICKLY
PLUNGE TO BELOW FREEZING FROM WEST TO EAST EARLY THIS EVENING.
WHERE AREA ROADWAYS REMAIN WET...THIS COULD RAPIDLY LEAD TO THE
FORMATION OF BLACK ICE...PARTICULARLY ON ELEVATED SURFACES SUCH AS
BRIDGES AND OVERPASSES.

IF YOU WILL BE TRAVELING ACROSS THE REGION THIS EVENING...BE
PREPARED FOR RAPID CHANGES IN ROAD CONDITIONS... AND BE SURE TO
SLOW DOWN AND LEAVE PLENTY OF EXTRA ROOM BETWEEN BETWEEN YOUR
VEHICLE AND OTHERS.

CHURCH/JJR

The office that day

Everything else NWS Buffalo, NY issued on the same UTC day.

IssuedProductOfficeCountiesLasted
Jan 9, 9:47 PM ESTSmall Craft AdvisoryBUF3 days
Jan 9, 10:02 PM ESTLake Effect Snow WarningBUFCattaraugus, Chautauqua, Erie, Jefferson, Lewis, Oswego and 1 more54 hr
Jan 10, 3:40 PM ESTLake Effect Snow AdvisoryBUFAllegany, Erie, Genesee, Livingston32 hr
Jan 10, 4:32 PM ESTLakeshore Flood AdvisoryBUFChautauqua, Erie35 min

Nearby

Lakeshore Flood Warnings in New York, 2016Every lakeshore flood warning in 2016

Sources

The product and its follow-ups from the Iowa Environmental Mesonet's archive of National Weather Service and Storm Prediction Center text; the sounding from the Mesonet's radiosonde archive; radar from the NEXRAD Level II archive.