Lake Effect Snow Watch 9, NWS Buffalo, NY

283 
WWUS41 KBUF 182314
WSWBUF

URGENT - WINTER WEATHER MESSAGE
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BUFFALO NY
614 PM EST FRI NOV 18 2016

NYZ019-020-085-190715-
/O.CON.KBUF.LE.W.0008.161119T2100Z-161121T1500Z/
CHAUTAUQUA-CATTARAUGUS-SOUTHERN ERIE-
INCLUDING THE CITIES OF...JAMESTOWN...OLEAN...ORCHARD PARK...
SPRINGVILLE
614 PM EST FRI NOV 18 2016

...LAKE EFFECT SNOW WARNING REMAINS IN EFFECT FROM 4 PM SATURDAY
TO 10 AM EST MONDAY...

* LOCATIONS...CHAUTAUQUA...CATTARAUGUS AND EXTREME SOUTHERN ERIE 
  COUNTIES.

* TIMING...FROM LATE SATURDAY AFTERNOON THROUGH MONDAY MORNING.

* ACCUMULATIONS...AN INCH OR LESS SATURDAY...4 TO 8 INCHES 
  SATURDAY NIGHT...4 TO 7 INCHES SUNDAY...2 TO 4 INCHES SUNDAY 
  NIGHT...AND AN INCH OR LESS MONDAY...LEADING TO STORM TOTALS 
  OF 9 TO 18 INCHES IN THE MOST PERSISTENT LAKE SNOWS.

* WINDS...WEST 20 TO 30 MPH WITH GUSTS UP TO 45 MPH.

* VISIBILITIES...UNDER A QUARTER MILE AT TIMES.

* TEMPERATURES...FALLING THROUGH THE 30S SATURDAY AFTERNOON. 
  LOWS AROUND 30 SATURDAY NIGHT. HIGHS IN THE LOWER 30S SUNDAY. 
  LOWS IN THE MID 20S SUNDAY NIGHT. IN THE UPPER 20S MONDAY.

* IMPACTS...PERIODS OF MODERATE TO HEAVY LAKE EFFECT SNOW AND 
  BLOWING SNOW ARE EXPECTED. THIS WILL RESULT IN SNOW COVERED 
  ROADS AND MAY LEAD TO VERY DIFFICULT TRAVEL CONDITIONS.

* FORECASTER CONFIDENCE...HIGH.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

IN LAKE EFFECT SNOW THE WEATHER CAN VARY FROM LOCALLY HEAVY SNOW
IN NARROW BANDS TO CLEAR SKIES JUST A FEW MILES AWAY. IF YOU WILL
BE TRAVELING ACROSS THE REGION BE PREPARED FOR RAPID CHANGES IN
ROAD AND VISIBILITY CONDITIONS.

IF YOU LOSE POWER AND PLAN ON RUNNING A GENERATOR...MAKE SURE
THAT THE GENERATOR IS LOCATED OUTDOORS AND IS PROPERLY
VENTILATED. SPACE HEATERS SHOULD ALSO BE PROPERLY VENTILATED AND
USED ONLY IF THEY ARE OPERATING PROPERLY. MAKE SURE SNOW DOES NOT
BLOCK EXHAUSTS AND FRESH AIR INTAKES FOR HIGH EFFICIENCY FURNACES
AND WATER HEATERS.

STAY TUNED TO NOAA WEATHER RADIO OR YOUR FAVORITE SOURCE OF
WEATHER INFORMATION FOR THE LATEST UPDATES. ADDITIONAL DETAILS
CAN ALSO BE FOUND AT WWW.WEATHER.GOV/BUFFALO.

REPORT SNOW ACCUMULATION TO THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE IN
BUFFALO BY SENDING AN EMAIL TO BUFSTORM.REPORT@NOAA.GOV...POSTING
TO THE NWS BUFFALO FACEBOOK PAGE...OR TWEET...USING THE HASHTAG
BUFWX

&&

EXPERIMENTAL CONTENT BELOW...DO NOT USE OPERATIONALLY
PLEASE SEE BELOW LINKS FOR MORE INFORMATION ON THIS EXPERIMENT
HTTP://WWW.WEATHER.GOV/BUF/POLYGON_PDD
HTTP://WWW.NWS.NOAA.GOV/OS/NOTIFICATION/PNS15LAKE_EFFECT_SNOW.HTM
TO VIEW THE EXPERIMENTAL POLYGONS PLEASE SEE:
HTTP://WWW.WEATHER.GOV/BUF/LESPOLYGON
COORD...4260 7851 4265 7880 4223 7976 4199 7977 
        4201 7947 4228 7859 
TIME Y16M11D19T2200Z-Y16M11D20T1800Z
COORD...4243 7854 4250 7909 4219 7977 4199 7977 
        4219 7876 4215 7838 
TIME Y16M11D20T1800Z-Y16M11D21T1500Z

$$

NYZ004>008-190715-
/O.CON.KBUF.LE.A.0009.161120T0600Z-161122T0000Z/
WAYNE-NORTHERN CAYUGA-OSWEGO-JEFFERSON-LEWIS-
INCLUDING THE CITIES OF...NEWARK...FAIR HAVEN...OSWEGO...
WATERTOWN...LOWVILLE
614 PM EST FRI NOV 18 2016

...LAKE EFFECT SNOW WATCH REMAINS IN EFFECT FROM LATE SATURDAY
NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY EVENING...

* LOCATIONS...WAYNE...NORTHERN CAYUGA...OSWEGO...JEFFERSON...AND 
  LEWIS COUNTIES.

* TIMING...FROM OVERNIGHT SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH EARLY MONDAY 
  EVENING.

* ACCUMULATIONS...10 TO 20 INCHES ARE POSSIBLE IN THE MOST 
  PERSISTENT LAKE SNOWS.

* WINDS...WEST 25 TO 35 MPH WITH GUSTS UP TO 45 MPH.

* VISIBILITIES...UNDER A HALF MILE AT TIMES.

* TEMPERATURES...LOWS LOWER 30S OVERNIGHT SATURDAY NIGHT. HIGHS 
  IN THE LOWER 30S SUNDAY. LOWS IN THE UPPER 20S SUNDAY NIGHT. 
  HIGHS IN THE LOWER 30S MONDAY. IN THE UPPER 20S MONDAY EVENING.

* IMPACTS...PERIODS OF MODERATE TO HEAVY LAKE EFFECT SNOW AND 
  BLOWING SNOW ARE EXPECTED. THIS WILL RESULT IN SNOW COVERED 
  ROADS AND MAY LEAD TO VERY DIFFICULT TRAVEL CONDITIONS.

* FORECASTER CONFIDENCE...HIGH.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

A LAKE EFFECT SNOW WATCH MEANS THAT NARROW BANDS OF LOCALLY HEAVY
LAKE EFFECT SNOW ARE POSSIBLE ACROSS THE REGION...ALONG WITH
RAPID CHANGES IN ROAD AND VISIBILITY CONDITIONS THAT CAN HAVE A
SIGNIFICANT IMPACT ON TRAVEL.

STAY TUNED TO NOAA WEATHER RADIO OR YOUR FAVORITE SOURCE OF
WEATHER INFORMATION FOR THE LATEST UPDATES. ADDITIONAL DETAILS
CAN ALSO BE FOUND AT WWW.WEATHER.GOV/BUFFALO.

&&

$$

RSH

153 
WWUS41 KBUF 190237
WSWBUF

URGENT - WINTER WEATHER MESSAGE
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BUFFALO NY
937 PM EST FRI NOV 18 2016

NYZ019-020-085-191045-
/O.CON.KBUF.LE.W.0008.161119T2100Z-161121T1500Z/
CHAUTAUQUA-CATTARAUGUS-SOUTHERN ERIE-
INCLUDING THE CITIES OF...JAMESTOWN...OLEAN...ORCHARD PARK...
SPRINGVILLE
937 PM EST FRI NOV 18 2016

...LAKE EFFECT SNOW WARNING REMAINS IN EFFECT FROM 4 PM SATURDAY
TO 10 AM EST MONDAY...

* LOCATIONS...CHAUTAUQUA...CATTARAUGUS AND EXTREME SOUTHERN ERIE 
  COUNTIES.

* TIMING...FROM LATE SATURDAY AFTERNOON THROUGH MONDAY MORNING.

* ACCUMULATIONS...AN INCH OR LESS SATURDAY...4 TO 8 INCHES 
  SATURDAY NIGHT...4 TO 7 INCHES SUNDAY...2 TO 4 INCHES SUNDAY 
  NIGHT...AND AN INCH OR LESS MONDAY...LEADING TO STORM TOTALS 
  OF 9 TO 18 INCHES IN THE MOST PERSISTENT LAKE SNOWS.

* WINDS...WEST 20 TO 30 MPH WITH GUSTS UP TO 45 MPH.

* VISIBILITIES...UNDER A QUARTER MILE AT TIMES.

* TEMPERATURES...FALLING THROUGH THE 30S SATURDAY AFTERNOON. 
  LOWS AROUND 30 SATURDAY NIGHT. HIGHS IN THE LOWER 30S SUNDAY. 
  LOWS IN THE MID 20S SUNDAY NIGHT. IN THE UPPER 20S MONDAY.

* IMPACTS...PERIODS OF MODERATE TO HEAVY LAKE EFFECT SNOW AND 
  BLOWING SNOW ARE EXPECTED. THIS WILL RESULT IN SNOW COVERED 
  ROADS AND MAY LEAD TO VERY DIFFICULT TRAVEL CONDITIONS.

* FORECASTER CONFIDENCE...HIGH.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

IN LAKE EFFECT SNOW THE WEATHER CAN VARY FROM LOCALLY HEAVY SNOW
IN NARROW BANDS TO CLEAR SKIES JUST A FEW MILES AWAY. IF YOU WILL
BE TRAVELING ACROSS THE REGION BE PREPARED FOR RAPID CHANGES IN
ROAD AND VISIBILITY CONDITIONS.

IF YOU LOSE POWER AND PLAN ON RUNNING A GENERATOR...MAKE SURE
THAT THE GENERATOR IS LOCATED OUTDOORS AND IS PROPERLY
VENTILATED. SPACE HEATERS SHOULD ALSO BE PROPERLY VENTILATED AND
USED ONLY IF THEY ARE OPERATING PROPERLY. MAKE SURE SNOW DOES NOT
BLOCK EXHAUSTS AND FRESH AIR INTAKES FOR HIGH EFFICIENCY FURNACES
AND WATER HEATERS.

STAY TUNED TO NOAA WEATHER RADIO OR YOUR FAVORITE SOURCE OF
WEATHER INFORMATION FOR THE LATEST UPDATES. ADDITIONAL DETAILS
CAN ALSO BE FOUND AT WWW.WEATHER.GOV/BUFFALO.

REPORT SNOW ACCUMULATION TO THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE IN
BUFFALO BY SENDING AN EMAIL TO BUFSTORM.REPORT@NOAA.GOV...POSTING
TO THE NWS BUFFALO FACEBOOK PAGE...OR TWEET...USING THE HASHTAG
BUFWX

&&

EXPERIMENTAL CONTENT BELOW...DO NOT USE OPERATIONALLY
PLEASE SEE BELOW LINKS FOR MORE INFORMATION ON THIS EXPERIMENT
HTTP://WWW.WEATHER.GOV/BUF/POLYGON_PDD
HTTP://WWW.NWS.NOAA.GOV/OS/NOTIFICATION/PNS15LAKE_EFFECT_SNOW.HTM
TO VIEW THE EXPERIMENTAL POLYGONS PLEASE SEE:
HTTP://WWW.WEATHER.GOV/BUF/LESPOLYGON
COORD...4260 7851 4265 7880 4223 7976 4199 7977 
        4201 7947 4228 7859 
TIME Y16M11D19T2200Z-Y16M11D20T1800Z
COORD...4243 7854 4250 7909 4219 7977 4199 7977 
        4219 7876 4215 7838 
TIME Y16M11D20T1800Z-Y16M11D21T1500Z

$$

NYZ004>008-191045-
/O.CON.KBUF.LE.A.0009.161120T0600Z-161122T0000Z/
WAYNE-NORTHERN CAYUGA-OSWEGO-JEFFERSON-LEWIS-
INCLUDING THE CITIES OF...NEWARK...FAIR HAVEN...OSWEGO...
WATERTOWN...LOWVILLE
937 PM EST FRI NOV 18 2016

...LAKE EFFECT SNOW WATCH REMAINS IN EFFECT FROM LATE SATURDAY
NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY EVENING...

* LOCATIONS...WAYNE...NORTHERN CAYUGA...OSWEGO...JEFFERSON...AND 
  LEWIS COUNTIES.

* TIMING...FROM OVERNIGHT SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH EARLY MONDAY 
  EVENING.

* ACCUMULATIONS...10 TO 20 INCHES ARE POSSIBLE IN THE MOST 
  PERSISTENT LAKE SNOWS.

* WINDS...WEST 25 TO 35 MPH WITH GUSTS UP TO 45 MPH.

* VISIBILITIES...UNDER A HALF MILE AT TIMES.

* TEMPERATURES...LOWS LOWER 30S OVERNIGHT SATURDAY NIGHT. HIGHS 
  IN THE LOWER 30S SUNDAY. LOWS IN THE UPPER 20S SUNDAY NIGHT. 
  HIGHS IN THE LOWER 30S MONDAY. IN THE UPPER 20S MONDAY EVENING.

* IMPACTS...PERIODS OF MODERATE TO HEAVY LAKE EFFECT SNOW AND 
  BLOWING SNOW ARE EXPECTED. THIS WILL RESULT IN SNOW COVERED 
  ROADS AND MAY LEAD TO VERY DIFFICULT TRAVEL CONDITIONS.

* FORECASTER CONFIDENCE...HIGH.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

A LAKE EFFECT SNOW WATCH MEANS THAT NARROW BANDS OF LOCALLY HEAVY
LAKE EFFECT SNOW ARE POSSIBLE ACROSS THE REGION...ALONG WITH
RAPID CHANGES IN ROAD AND VISIBILITY CONDITIONS THAT CAN HAVE A
SIGNIFICANT IMPACT ON TRAVEL.

STAY TUNED TO NOAA WEATHER RADIO OR YOUR FAVORITE SOURCE OF
WEATHER INFORMATION FOR THE LATEST UPDATES. ADDITIONAL DETAILS
CAN ALSO BE FOUND AT WWW.WEATHER.GOV/BUFFALO.

&&

$$

921 
WWUS41 KBUF 190859
WSWBUF

URGENT - WINTER WEATHER MESSAGE
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BUFFALO NY
359 AM EST SAT NOV 19 2016

NYZ004>008-191700-
/O.UPG.KBUF.LE.A.0009.161120T0600Z-161122T0000Z/
/O.EXB.KBUF.LE.W.0008.161120T0600Z-161122T0000Z/
WAYNE-NORTHERN CAYUGA-OSWEGO-JEFFERSON-LEWIS-
INCLUDING THE CITIES OF...NEWARK...FAIR HAVEN...OSWEGO...
WATERTOWN...LOWVILLE
359 AM EST SAT NOV 19 2016

...LAKE EFFECT SNOW WARNING IN EFFECT FROM 1 AM SUNDAY TO 7 PM
EST MONDAY...

THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE IN BUFFALO HAS ISSUED A LAKE EFFECT
SNOW WARNING...WHICH IS IN EFFECT FROM 1 AM SUNDAY TO 7 PM EST
MONDAY. THE LAKE EFFECT SNOW WATCH IS NO LONGER IN EFFECT.

* LOCATIONS...WAYNE...NORTHERN CAYUGA...OSWEGO...JEFFERSON...AND 
  LEWIS COUNTIES.

* TIMING...FROM OVERNIGHT TONIGHT THROUGH EARLY MONDAY EVENING.

* ACCUMULATIONS...STORM TOTALS OF 10 TO 20 INCHES IN THE MOST
  PERSISTENT LAKE SNOWS.

* WINDS...WEST 25 TO 35 MPH WITH GUSTS TO 45 MPH.

* VISIBILITIES...A QUARTER MILE OR LESS AT TIMES.

* IMPACTS...PERIODS OF MODERATE TO HEAVY LAKE EFFECT SNOW AND
  BLOWING SNOW ARE EXPECTED. THIS WILL RESULT IN SNOW COVERED
  ROADS AND LEAD TO VERY DIFFICULT TRAVEL CONDITIONS.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

IN LAKE EFFECT SNOW THE WEATHER CAN VARY FROM LOCALLY HEAVY SNOW
IN NARROW BANDS TO CLEAR SKIES JUST A FEW MILES AWAY. IF YOU WILL
BE TRAVELING ACROSS THE REGION BE PREPARED FOR RAPID CHANGES IN
ROAD AND VISIBILITY CONDITIONS.

IF YOU LOSE POWER AND PLAN ON RUNNING A GENERATOR...MAKE SURE
THAT THE GENERATOR IS LOCATED OUTDOORS AND IS PROPERLY
VENTILATED. SPACE HEATERS SHOULD ALSO BE PROPERLY VENTILATED AND
USED ONLY IF THEY ARE OPERATING PROPERLY. MAKE SURE SNOW DOES NOT
BLOCK EXHAUSTS AND FRESH AIR INTAKES FOR HIGH EFFICIENCY FURNACES
AND WATER HEATERS.

STAY TUNED TO NOAA WEATHER RADIO OR YOUR FAVORITE SOURCE OF
WEATHER INFORMATION FOR THE LATEST UPDATES. ADDITIONAL DETAILS
CAN ALSO BE FOUND AT WWW.WEATHER.GOV/BUFFALO.

REPORT SNOW ACCUMULATION TO THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE IN
BUFFALO BY SENDING AN EMAIL TO BUFSTORM.REPORT@NOAA.GOV...POSTING
TO THE NWS BUFFALO FACEBOOK PAGE...OR TWEET...USING THE HASHTAG
BUFWX

&&

EXPERIMENTAL CONTENT BELOW...DO NOT USE OPERATIONALLY
PLEASE SEE BELOW LINKS FOR MORE INFORMATION ON THIS EXPERIMENT
HTTP://WWW.WEATHER.GOV/BUF/POLYGON_PDD
HTTP://WWW.NWS.NOAA.GOV/OS/NOTIFICATION/PNS15LAKE_EFFECT_SNOW.HTM
TO VIEW THE EXPERIMENTAL POLYGONS PLEASE SEE:
HTTP://WWW.WEATHER.GOV/BUF/LESPOLYGON
COORD...4414 7523 4439 7581 4361 7623 4326 7736 
        4303 7680 4348 7581 4360 7513 
TIME Y16M11D20T0600Z-Y16M11D22T0000Z

$$

NYZ019-020-085-191700-
/O.CON.KBUF.LE.W.0008.161119T2100Z-161121T1500Z/
CHAUTAUQUA-CATTARAUGUS-SOUTHERN ERIE-
INCLUDING THE CITIES OF...JAMESTOWN...OLEAN...ORCHARD PARK...
SPRINGVILLE
359 AM EST SAT NOV 19 2016

...LAKE EFFECT SNOW WARNING REMAINS IN EFFECT FROM 4 PM THIS
AFTERNOON TO 10 AM EST MONDAY...

* LOCATIONS...CHAUTAUQUA...CATTARAUGUS AND EXTREME SOUTHERN ERIE 
  COUNTIES.

* TIMING...FROM LATE THIS AFTERNOON THROUGH LATE MONDAY MORNING.

* ACCUMULATIONS...STORM TOTALS OF 8 TO 15 INCHES IN THE MOST
  PERSISTENT LAKE SNOWS.

* WINDS...WEST 20 TO 30 MPH WITH GUSTS UP TO 45 MPH.

* VISIBILITIES...A QUARTER MILE OR LESS AT TIMES.

* IMPACTS...PERIODS OF MODERATE TO HEAVY LAKE EFFECT SNOW AND
  BLOWING SNOW ARE EXPECTED. THIS WILL RESULT IN SNOW COVERED
  ROADS AND LEAD TO VERY DIFFICULT TRAVEL CONDITIONS.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

IN LAKE EFFECT SNOW THE WEATHER CAN VARY FROM LOCALLY HEAVY SNOW
IN NARROW BANDS TO CLEAR SKIES JUST A FEW MILES AWAY. IF YOU WILL
BE TRAVELING ACROSS THE REGION BE PREPARED FOR RAPID CHANGES IN
ROAD AND VISIBILITY CONDITIONS.

IF YOU LOSE POWER AND PLAN ON RUNNING A GENERATOR...MAKE SURE
THAT THE GENERATOR IS LOCATED OUTDOORS AND IS PROPERLY
VENTILATED. SPACE HEATERS SHOULD ALSO BE PROPERLY VENTILATED AND
USED ONLY IF THEY ARE OPERATING PROPERLY. MAKE SURE SNOW DOES NOT
BLOCK EXHAUSTS AND FRESH AIR INTAKES FOR HIGH EFFICIENCY FURNACES
AND WATER HEATERS.

STAY TUNED TO NOAA WEATHER RADIO OR YOUR FAVORITE SOURCE OF
WEATHER INFORMATION FOR THE LATEST UPDATES. ADDITIONAL DETAILS
CAN ALSO BE FOUND AT WWW.WEATHER.GOV/BUFFALO.

REPORT SNOW ACCUMULATION TO THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE IN
BUFFALO BY SENDING AN EMAIL TO BUFSTORM.REPORT@NOAA.GOV...POSTING
TO THE NWS BUFFALO FACEBOOK PAGE...OR TWEET...USING THE HASHTAG
BUFWX

&&

EXPERIMENTAL CONTENT BELOW...DO NOT USE OPERATIONALLY
PLEASE SEE BELOW LINKS FOR MORE INFORMATION ON THIS EXPERIMENT
HTTP://WWW.WEATHER.GOV/BUF/POLYGON_PDD
HTTP://WWW.NWS.NOAA.GOV/OS/NOTIFICATION/PNS15LAKE_EFFECT_SNOW.HTM
TO VIEW THE EXPERIMENTAL POLYGONS PLEASE SEE:
HTTP://WWW.WEATHER.GOV/BUF/LESPOLYGON
COORD...4237 7834 4279 7866 4254 7897 4225 7976 
        4199 7977 4199 7850 
TIME Y16M11D20T0000Z-Y16M11D21T1800Z

$$

NYZ011-012-021-191700-
/O.NEW.KBUF.LE.Y.0019.161120T0000Z-161121T1500Z/
GENESEE-WYOMING-ALLEGANY-
INCLUDING THE CITIES OF...BATAVIA...WARSAW...WELLSVILLE
359 AM EST SAT NOV 19 2016

...LAKE EFFECT SNOW ADVISORY IN EFFECT FROM 7 PM THIS EVENING TO
10 AM EST MONDAY...

THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE IN BUFFALO HAS ISSUED A LAKE EFFECT
SNOW ADVISORY...WHICH IS IN EFFECT FROM 7 PM THIS EVENING TO
10 AM EST MONDAY.

* LOCATIONS...GENESEE...WYOMING AND ALLEGANY COUNTIES.

* TIMING...FROM EARLY THIS EVENING THROUGH LATE MONDAY MORNING.

* ACCUMULATIONS...STORM TOTALS OF 5 TO 10 INCHES IN THE MOST
  PERSISTENT LAKE SNOWS.

* WINDS...WEST 15 TO 25 MPH WITH GUSTS UP TO 35 MPH.

* VISIBILITIES...A HALF MILE OR LESS AT TIMES.

* IMPACTS...PERIODS OF MODERATE LAKE EFFECT SNOW AND BLOWING SNOW
  ARE EXPECTED. THIS WILL RESULT IN SNOW COVERED ROADS AND LEAD TO
  DIFFICULT TRAVEL CONDITIONS.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

IN LAKE EFFECT SNOW THE WEATHER CAN VARY FROM LOCALLY HEAVY SNOW
IN NARROW BANDS TO CLEAR SKIES JUST A FEW MILES AWAY. IF YOU WILL
BE TRAVELING ACROSS THE REGION BE PREPARED FOR RAPID CHANGES IN
ROAD AND VISIBILITY CONDITIONS.

STAY TUNED TO NOAA WEATHER RADIO OR YOUR FAVORITE SOURCE OF
WEATHER INFORMATION FOR THE LATEST UPDATES. ADDITIONAL DETAILS
CAN ALSO BE FOUND AT WWW.WEATHER.GOV/BUFFALO.

REPORT SNOW ACCUMULATION TO THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE IN
BUFFALO BY SENDING AN EMAIL TO BUFSTORM.REPORT@NOAA.GOV...POSTING
TO THE NWS BUFFALO FACEBOOK PAGE...OR TWEET...USING THE HASHTAG
BUFWX

&&

$$

NYZ003-013-014-191700-
/O.NEW.KBUF.LE.Y.0019.161120T0600Z-161122T0000Z/
MONROE-LIVINGSTON-ONTARIO-
INCLUDING THE CITIES OF...ROCHESTER...GENESEO...CANANDAIGUA
359 AM EST SAT NOV 19 2016

...LAKE EFFECT SNOW ADVISORY IN EFFECT FROM 1 AM SUNDAY TO 7 PM
EST MONDAY...

THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE IN BUFFALO HAS ISSUED A LAKE EFFECT
SNOW ADVISORY...WHICH IS IN EFFECT FROM 1 AM SUNDAY TO 7 PM EST
MONDAY.

* LOCATIONS...MONROE...LIVINGSTON AND ONTARIO COUNTIES.

* TIMING...FROM OVERNIGHT TONIGHT THROUGH EARLY MONDAY EVENING.

* ACCUMULATIONS...STORM TOTALS OF 5 TO 9 INCHES IN THE MOST
  PERSISTENT LAKE SNOWS.

* WINDS...WEST 20 TO 30 MPH WITH GUSTS UP TO 40 MPH.

* VISIBILITIES...A HALF MILE OR LESS AT TIMES.

* IMPACTS...PERIODS OF MODERATE LAKE EFFECT SNOW AND BLOWING SNOW
  ARE EXPECTED. THIS WILL RESULT IN SNOW COVERED ROADS AND LEAD TO
  DIFFICULT TRAVEL CONDITIONS.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

IN LAKE EFFECT SNOW THE WEATHER CAN VARY FROM LOCALLY HEAVY SNOW
IN NARROW BANDS TO CLEAR SKIES JUST A FEW MILES AWAY. IF YOU WILL
BE TRAVELING ACROSS THE REGION BE PREPARED FOR RAPID CHANGES IN
ROAD AND VISIBILITY CONDITIONS.

STAY TUNED TO NOAA WEATHER RADIO OR YOUR FAVORITE SOURCE OF
WEATHER INFORMATION FOR THE LATEST UPDATES. ADDITIONAL DETAILS
CAN ALSO BE FOUND AT WWW.WEATHER.GOV/BUFFALO.

REPORT SNOW ACCUMULATION TO THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE IN
BUFFALO BY SENDING AN EMAIL TO BUFSTORM.REPORT@NOAA.GOV...POSTING
TO THE NWS BUFFALO FACEBOOK PAGE...OR TWEET...USING THE HASHTAG
BUFWX

&&

$$

TMA

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Buffalo NY
203 PM EST Fri Nov 18 2016

.SYNOPSIS...
High pressure over eastern New York will slowly drift to the New
England coastline through tonight...while a deepening low pressure
system slowly tracks across Lake Superior. Out ahead of this low...
unseasonably warm and dry conditions will continue right through
tonight...before coming to an abrupt end on Saturday as the storm
system makes its way across Ontario Province...and sweeps its
trailing strong cold front across our region. Following the front...
a dramatic change to decidedly wintry weather will follow for the
remainder of the weekend and early next week.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
The axis of high pressure will slowly drift from eastern New York
to New England this afternoon ...while a deepening cyclone over the
Upper Mississippi Valley pushes toward Lake Superior. The southerly
flow between these systems has advected September-like warmth across
our forecast area...with 925 mb temps of between +13C and +17C. At
the surface...such warmth will translate into afternoon highs in the
upper 50s to mid 60s across the North Country...and into the upper 60s
and lower 70s across most areas south of Lake Ontario. The warmest
temps will be found across the lake plains of western New York...
where a modest southerly downslope flow will aid in the warming.
Such readings will be some 20 to 25 degrees above average for this
time of year and very close to records for November 18...which are
74/1958 at Buffalo...71/1958 at Rochester...and 71/1958 at Watertown.

Tonight...the surface ridge axis will begrudgingly slide a little
further eastward to the Atlantic coastline...with its parent upper
level ridge slowly drifting from New York State into New England.
Due to the still-close proximity of these features and plenty of
attendant dry air and subsidence...our region will remain dry and
mild under the influence of a continued broad southerly flow...with
just some limited increase in high clouds overnight out ahead of
an approaching strong cold front. Expect overnight lows to range
from the lower to mid 40s across the North Country to the upper 40s
to mid 50s south of Lake Ontario...with the warmest readings again
found in those regions of favored downslope flow in far western New
York.

On Saturday...the aforementioned storm system will slowly meander
its way from Lake Superior to the Ontario-Quebec border...while
pushing its strong attendant cold front across our region. As the
cold front will be strongly anafrontal in nature...the actual frontal
passage itself will probably turn out be pretty dry with a narrow band
of showers then working across the area in its wake...in conjunction
with the arrival of a potent mid and upper level shortwave and its
attendant swath of strong forcing. Given plentiful deep moisture
and favorable large-scale forcing...will cover the passage of this
band of showers with a round of solid categorical PoPs.

In the wake of the front...a strengthening southwesterly flow of
much colder air will overspread the region from west to east. This
will result in pre-frontal temps initially in the 50s across far
WNY and the lower to mid 60s across the Finger Lakes/North Country
Saturday dropping some 10 to 15 degrees following the fropa...with
rather breezy to windy conditions also developing...particularly
across far WNY where sustained winds of 20-30 mph and gusts to 40
mph will become likely. During the mid to late afternoon hours...the
strengthening cold air advection regime...well aligned flow...and
available large-scale moisture will also support the development of
a band of lake effect rain showers across Lake Erie and into the
Buffalo area...which will then sink south to the Southern Tier
through 00z Sunday as winds veer progressively more westerly.
Toward sunset...our airmass will grow cold enough for some snow
showers to begin mixing in across the higher terrain well south
of Buffalo...with snowflakes quickly becoming dominant in this
latter region by 00z or so. This will set the stage for our first
noteworthy lake effect snow event of the season starting Saturday
night...the details of which can be found in the short term
discussion immediately below.

&&

.SHORT TERM /SATURDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
Big changes coming to the area for this weekend. A sharp cold front
will plow through New York State from west to east during the day
Saturday. The front will likely bring a band of showers with it,
followed by strong cold advection that will bring falling
temperatures during the afternoon along with increasing west
southwest winds with gusts exceeding 30 mph. More widespread
precipitation will develop behind the front, as wrap around
moisture pushes into western New York and interacts with rapidly
increasing instability over the lower Great Lakes.

...Accumulating snows expected Saturday night through Monday...

By Saturday evening, rain showers will start to transition to
snow showers as colder air aloft builds in behind the front and
underneath the approaching upper level low. Liquid precipitation
may hang on stubbornly along the immediate lake shore areas and
lower elevations given the still warm (9-12C) lake water
temperatures. Higher elevations should start to see some
accumulation Saturday night, not certain how efficient this
process will be at first, but a couple inches of snow across the
higher terrain of the western Southern Tier is quite possible.

By 12Z Sunday, model consensus 850 mb temperatures of -7C near
Buffalo and -4C at Watertown will fall to around -10C by the end of
the day. Expect conditions to deteriorate Sunday and Sunday night
as plenty of synoptic moisture will be in place with the upper low
nearby and cold enough temperatures aloft to support lake effect
snow. This will be a northwest flow event, so instead of a
singular band, there will be multiple bands, with upsloping likely
to be a key mesoscale factor. Winds will increase to at least 40
mph, so lake enhanced snows are likely to extend well inland from
the lakes, especially across higher terrain. This also will result
in gusty winds on land, especially south and east of the lakes
where winds will be strongest resulting in areas of blowing and
drifting snow.

It continues to appears that the greatest snow amounts will be
across higher terrain of the Western Southern Tier. Storm totals may
be near a foot in some favorable upslope areas, though amounts will
vary widely due to mesoscale influences.

The forecast remains a bit more uncertain south of Lake Ontario and
across eastern portions of the area as these areas will be the last
to cool enough to support snow. The potential for deformation snow
along with northwest flow lake effect and upslope could bring
warning criteria snow along the I-90 corridor and the Tug Hill,
possibly even as far north as the Saint Lawrence Valley. With the
best time period for significant snows probably not until later
Sunday into Monday will hold off on headlines at this point.

Regardless of headlines, nearly all of Western and North Central New
York should get some accumulating snow from this system.

&&

.LONG TERM /MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY/...
Monday night the 12Z GFS is coming more into line with the 12Z ECMWF
with a slower ejection of the upper level low over the Northeast.
This seems reasonable considering the NAO is starting to fall below
zero, which would indicate a longwave blocking pattern setting up,
resulting in the slower progression of the upper level. This should
allow for low level moisture and cold air to continue to flow across
the eastern Great Lakes, such that accumulating lake effect snow
will continue to the southeast of Lake Ontario. Lake induced
equilibrium levels will be falling through the night which should
begin to diminish the depth of the lake effect plumes, such that by
Tuesday morning any remaining lake effect snow will be in a greatly
reduced state. It is of interest to point out that at least on the
GFS model run the plume of synoptic moisture remains well below a
rising snow dendritic growth zone. If this were to happen we could
see some fine snow grains and/or freezing drizzle to end the event.

We'll have a shortwave ridge cross the region, bringing a brief
break in the unsettled weather. At this point it appears this
feature will cross the region Tuesday night and into Wednesday. The
GFS seems a little too fast with the approach of the next shortwave,
likely resulting from a fast exit of the initial upper level low
that will bring us our first widespread snow. Will continue with low
chances for precipitation Wednesday, but the greater time frame for
the next event will come Wednesday night and into Thursday. At this
point it appears that this will again be a rain event that will
transition and possibly end with snow around Thanksgiving.

Temperatures will not be too far from climatology this period...a
little below to start the Monday night and Tuesday period, with a
brief period of above normal temperatures ahead of the next
cold front that will near towards the end of the long term period.

&&

.AVIATION /19Z FRIDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
The axis of surface high pressure will slowly drift east across New
England through tonight...while providing fair weather and widespread
VFR conditions to all of western and north central New York. The
only fly in the ointment for aviation interests will be the development
of some low level wind shear over far Western New York...courtesy of a
35-40 kt southwesterly low level jet that will affect that particular
area between roughly 04z and 12z Saturday.

On Saturday...a well-developed storm system will slowly meander its way
from Lake Superior to the Ontario-Quebec border...while pushing its
potent attendant cold front across our region in the process. The frontal
passage itself will be marked and followed by sharply increasing/lowering
cloud cover...with a narrow but fairly cohesive band of showers crossing
the region in its wake. This will result in widespread VFR conditions at
the start of the day quickly lowering to MVFR along and behind the front...
with some IFR cigs also becoming possible across the higher terrain of the
Southern Tier. Rather breezy to windy conditions will also develop in
the wake of the front...particularly across far western New York where
sustained winds of 15-25 knots and gusts to 30-35 knots will become
likely.

During the mid to late afternoon hours...a band of lake effect rain
showers will develop across Lake Erie and into the Buffalo area...before
sinking south to the Southern Tier and mixing with snow showers through
00z Sunday as winds veer progressively more westerly and our airmass grows
colder.

Outlook...
Saturday night...MVFR/IFR with rain showers changing to snow showers...
and areas of heavier lake enhanced snow developing east and southeast
of the lakes.
Sunday and Monday...MVFR/IFR with snow showers...and areas of lake
effect/lake enhanced snow downwind of the lakes.
Tuesday...VFR/MVFR with a chance of snow showers.
Wednesday...VFR/MVFR with a chance of rain showers.

&&

.MARINE...
High pressure over eastern New York will continue to slowly drift
east today...while maintaining light to modest southerly winds and
negligible waves across the Lower Great Lakes.

Winds across the eastern Great Lakes will freshen tonight...and
particularly on Saturday when a strong cold front will cross the
region. Gale force winds are then possible as the parent low to the
cold front rapidly deepens across southern Quebec Sunday and Monday.
Will issue Gale Watches for both lakes for late Saturday through
Sunday.

&&

.BUF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NY...Lake Effect Snow Watch from late Saturday night through Monday
     evening for NYZ004>008.
     Lake Effect Snow Warning from 4 PM Saturday to 10 AM EST
     Monday for NYZ019-020-085.
MARINE...Gale Watch from Saturday afternoon through Sunday evening for
         LEZ040-041.
         Gale Watch from Saturday afternoon through Monday
         afternoon for LOZ042>045-062>065.

&&

SYNOPSIS...JJR
NEAR TERM...JJR
SHORT TERM...APFFEL/RSH/TMA
LONG TERM...THOMAS
AVIATION...JJR
MARINE...APFFEL/JJR/SMITH/WCH

HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BUFFALO NY
525 AM EST FRI NOV 18 2016

NYZ001>008-010>014-021-191030-
NIAGARA-ORLEANS-MONROE-WAYNE-NORTHERN CAYUGA-OSWEGO-JEFFERSON-LEWIS-
NORTHERN ERIE-GENESEE-WYOMING-LIVINGSTON-ONTARIO-ALLEGANY-
525 AM EST FRI NOV 18 2016

THIS HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK IS FOR PORTIONS OF CENTRAL NEW YORK
AND WESTERN NEW YORK.

.DAY ONE...TODAY AND TONIGHT.

THE PROBABILITY OF WIDESPREAD HAZARDOUS WEATHER IS LOW.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...SATURDAY THROUGH THURSDAY.

AS MUCH COLDER AIR PUSHES INTO THE REGION...AN ACCUMULATING
SNOWFALL IS POSSIBLE SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY. THE
COMBINATION OF ACCUMULATING SNOW...FALLING TEMPERATURES AND GUSTY
WINDS MAY CREATE SLICK ROADS AND HAZARDOUS TRAVEL CONDITIONS IN
SOME AREAS DURING THIS TIME PERIOD. GREATEST ACCUMULATIONS AND
LONGEST DURATION OF SNOW MAY BE EAST AND SOUTHEAST OF LAKE
ONTARIO.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

SPOTTER ACTIVATION IS NOT EXPECTED AT THIS TIME.

THIS PRODUCT...ALONG WITH OTHER WATCHES...WARNINGS...ADVISORIES...
AND STATEMENTS ISSUED BY THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE OFFICE IN
BUFFALO CAN BE FOUND ON THE INTERNET AT HTTP://WWW.WEATHER.GOV/BUF

NYZ019-020-085-191030-
CHAUTAUQUA-CATTARAUGUS-SOUTHERN ERIE-
525 AM EST FRI NOV 18 2016

...LAKE EFFECT SNOW WATCH IN EFFECT FROM SATURDAY EVENING THROUGH
MONDAY MORNING...

THIS HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK IS FOR PORTIONS OF WESTERN NEW YORK.

.DAY ONE...TODAY AND TONIGHT.

THE PROBABILITY FOR WIDESPREAD HAZARDOUS WEATHER IS LOW.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...SATURDAY THROUGH THURSDAY.

PLEASE LISTEN TO NOAA WEATHER RADIO OR GO TO WEATHER.GOV ON THE
INTERNET FOR MORE INFORMATION ABOUT THE FOLLOWING HAZARDS.

   LAKE EFFECT SNOW WATCH.

LAKE EFFECT SNOW WATCH.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

SPOTTER ACTIVATION IS NOT EXPECTED AT THIS TIME.

THIS PRODUCT...ALONG WITH OTHER WATCHES...WARNINGS...ADVISORIES...
AND STATEMENTS ISSUED BY THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE OFFICE IN
BUFFALO CAN BE FOUND ON THE INTERNET AT HTTP://WWW.WEATHER.GOV/BUF

LOZ042>045-062>065-191030-
LAKE ONTARIO NEARSHORE WATERS FROM THE NIAGARA RIVER TO HAMLIN BEACH-
LAKE ONTARIO NEARSHORE WATERS FROM HAMLIN BEACH TO SODUS BAY-
LAKE ONTARIO NEARSHORE WATERS FROM SODUS BAY TO MEXICO BAY-
LAKE ONTARIO NEARSHORE WATERS FROM MEXICO BAY TO THE SAINT LAWRENCE
RIVER-
LAKE ONTARIO OPEN WATERS FROM THE NIAGARA RIVER TO HAMLIN BEACH-
LAKE ONTARIO OPEN WATERS FROM HAMLIN BEACH TO SODUS BAY-
LAKE ONTARIO OPEN WATERS FROM SODUS BAY TO MEXICO BAY-
LAKE ONTARIO OPEN WATERS FROM MEXICO BAY TO THE SAINT LAWRENCE RIVER-
525 AM EST FRI NOV 18 2016

...GALE WATCH IN EFFECT FROM SATURDAY AFTERNOON THROUGH MONDAY
AFTERNOON...

THIS HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK IS FOR PORTIONS OF LAKE ONTARIO.

.DAY ONE...TODAY AND TONIGHT.

THE PROBABILITY FOR WIDESPREAD HAZARDOUS WEATHER IS LOW.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...SATURDAY THROUGH THURSDAY.

PLEASE LISTEN TO NOAA WEATHER RADIO OR GO TO WEATHER.GOV ON THE
INTERNET FOR MORE INFORMATION ABOUT THE FOLLOWING HAZARDS.

   GALE WATCH.

GALE WATCH.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

SPOTTER ACTIVATION IS NOT EXPECTED AT THIS TIME.

THIS PRODUCT...ALONG WITH OTHER WATCHES...WARNINGS...ADVISORIES...
AND STATEMENTS ISSUED BY THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE OFFICE IN
BUFFALO CAN BE FOUND ON THE INTERNET AT HTTP://WWW.WEATHER.GOV/BUF

LEZ020-LOZ030-SLZ022-024-191030-
UPPER NIAGARA RIVER AND BUFFALO HARBOR-LOWER NIAGARA RIVER-
SAINT LAWRENCE RIVER FROM CAPE VINCENT TO OGDENSBURG-
SAINT LAWRENCE RIVER FROM OGDENSBURG TO SAINT REGIS-
525 AM EST FRI NOV 18 2016

THIS HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK IS FOR PORTIONS OF LAKE ERIE...LAKE
ONTARIO AND SAINT LAWRENCE RIVER.

.DAY ONE...TODAY AND TONIGHT.

THE PROBABILITY FOR WIDESPREAD HAZARDOUS WEATHER IS LOW.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...SATURDAY THROUGH THURSDAY.

A COMPLEX STORM SYSTEM WILL MOVE SLOWLY ACROSS NEW ENGLAND SUNDAY
AND MONDAY. THIS HAS THE POTENTIAL TO PRODUCE STRONG WINDS ACROSS
THE WATERS.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

SPOTTER ACTIVATION IS NOT EXPECTED AT THIS TIME.

THIS PRODUCT...ALONG WITH OTHER WATCHES...WARNINGS...ADVISORIES...
AND STATEMENTS ISSUED BY THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE OFFICE IN
BUFFALO CAN BE FOUND ON THE INTERNET AT HTTP://WWW.WEATHER.GOV/BUF

LEZ040-041-191030-
LAKE ERIE NEARSHORE WATERS FROM RIPLEY TO DUNKIRK-
LAKE ERIE NEARSHORE WATERS FROM DUNKIRK TO BUFFALO-
525 AM EST FRI NOV 18 2016

...GALE WATCH IN EFFECT FROM SATURDAY AFTERNOON THROUGH SUNDAY
EVENING...

THIS HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK IS FOR PORTIONS OF LAKE ERIE.

.DAY ONE...TODAY AND TONIGHT.

THE PROBABILITY FOR WIDESPREAD HAZARDOUS WEATHER IS LOW.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...SATURDAY THROUGH THURSDAY.

PLEASE LISTEN TO NOAA WEATHER RADIO OR GO TO WEATHER.GOV ON THE
INTERNET FOR MORE INFORMATION ABOUT THE FOLLOWING HAZARDS.

   GALE WATCH.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

SPOTTER ACTIVATION IS NOT EXPECTED AT THIS TIME.

THIS PRODUCT...ALONG WITH OTHER WATCHES...WARNINGS...ADVISORIES...
AND STATEMENTS ISSUED BY THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE OFFICE IN
BUFFALO CAN BE FOUND ON THE INTERNET AT HTTP://WWW.WEATHER.GOV/BUF