Lake Effect Snow Advisory 18, NWS Buffalo, NY

184 
WWUS41 KBUF 021736
WSWBUF

URGENT - WINTER WEATHER MESSAGE
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BUFFALO NY
1236 PM EST WED MAR 2 2016

NYZ006>008-021845-
/O.CAN.KBUF.WW.Y.0010.000000T0000Z-160302T1800Z/
OSWEGO-JEFFERSON-LEWIS-
INCLUDING THE CITIES OF...OSWEGO...WATERTOWN...LOWVILLE
1236 PM EST WED MAR 2 2016

...WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY IS CANCELLED...

THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE IN BUFFALO HAS CANCELLED THE WINTER
WEATHER ADVISORY.

LIGHT LAKE EFFECT SNOWS WILL LINGER THIS AFTERNOON... BUT
ADDITIONAL ACCUMULATIONS WILL BE LIGHT.

$$

NYZ012-019-020-085-030145-
/O.CON.KBUF.LE.Y.0018.000000T0000Z-160303T0600Z/
WYOMING-CHAUTAUQUA-CATTARAUGUS-SOUTHERN ERIE-
INCLUDING THE CITIES OF...WARSAW...JAMESTOWN...OLEAN...
ORCHARD PARK...SPRINGVILLE
1236 PM EST WED MAR 2 2016

...LAKE EFFECT SNOW ADVISORY REMAINS IN EFFECT UNTIL 1 AM EST
THURSDAY...

* LOCATIONS...SOUTHERN ERIE...WYOMING...CHAUTAUQUA...AND
  CATTARAUGUS COUNTIES.

* TIMING...THROUGH OVERNIGHT TONIGHT.

* ACCUMULATIONS...1 TO 3 INCHES TODAY AND UP TO 2 INCHES 
  TONIGHT...LEADING TO TOTALS OF 3 TO 5 INCHES IN THE MOST 
  PERSISTENT SNOWS.

* MAXIMUM SNOWFALL RATES... BETWEEN 1 AND 2 INCHES PER HOUR IN
  THE HEAVIEST SNOW THIS AFTERNOON... BEFORE DECREASING IN
  INTENSITY THIS EVENING.

* VISIBILITIES...AS LOW AS A QUARTER MILE AT TIMES.

* WINDS...WEST 15 TO 25 MPH WITH GUSTS UP TO 35 MPH.

* IMPACTS...LAKE EFFECT SNOWS WILL CREATE AREAS OF POOR 
  VISIBILITIES AND SNOW COVERED ROADS. WINDS WILL ALSO CAUSE 
  SOME BLOWING AND DRIFTING SNOW. SLOW DOWN AND ALLOW EXTRA TIME 
  FOR TRAVEL...AND WATCH FOR RAPIDLY CHANGING CONDITIONS.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

A WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY IS NORMALLY ISSUED FOR A VARIETY OF
WINTER WEATHER CONDITIONS SUCH AS LIGHT SNOW...BLOWING SNOW...
SLEET...FREEZING RAIN AND WIND CHILLS. WHILE THE WEATHER WILL BE
SIGNIFICANT...THE WORD ADVISORY IMPLIES THAT SEVERE WINTER
WEATHER IS NOT ANTICIPATED.

IN LAKE EFFECT SNOW THE WEATHER CAN VARY FROM LOCALLY HEAVY SNOW
IN NARROW BANDS TO CLEAR SKIES JUST A FEW MILES AWAY. IF YOU WILL
BE TRAVELING ACROSS THE REGION BE PREPARED FOR RAPID CHANGES IN
ROAD AND VISIBILITY CONDITIONS.

STAY TUNED TO NOAA WEATHER RADIO OR YOUR FAVORITE SOURCE OF
WEATHER INFORMATION FOR THE LATEST UPDATES. ADDITIONAL DETAILS
CAN ALSO BE FOUND AT WWW.WEATHER.GOV/BUFFALO.

REPORT SNOW ACCUMULATION TO THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE IN
BUFFALO BY SENDING AN EMAIL TO BUFSTORM.REPORT@NOAA.GOV...POSTING
TO THE NWS BUFFALO FACEBOOK PAGE...OR TWEET...USING THE HASHTAG
BUFWX

&&

$$

NYZ004-005-030145-
/O.CON.KBUF.LE.Y.0018.000000T0000Z-160303T0600Z/
WAYNE-NORTHERN CAYUGA-
INCLUDING THE CITIES OF...NEWARK...FAIR HAVEN
1236 PM EST WED MAR 2 2016

...LAKE EFFECT SNOW ADVISORY REMAINS IN EFFECT UNTIL 1 AM EST
THURSDAY...

* LOCATIONS...WAYNE AND NORTHERN CAYUGA COUNTIES.

* TIMING...THROUGH OVERNIGHT TONIGHT.

* ACCUMULATIONS...1 TO 3 INCHES TODAY AND 1 TO 2 INCHES 
  TONIGHT...LEADING TO TOTALS OF 3 TO 5 INCHES IN THE MOST 
  PERSISTENT SNOWS.

* WINDS...NORTHWEST 20 TO 30 MPH WITH GUSTS UP TO 40 MPH.

* VISIBILITIES...AS LOW AS A HALF MILE AT TIMES.

* IMPACTS...LAKE EFFECT SNOWS WILL CREATE AREAS OF POOR 
  VISIBILITIES AND SNOW COVERED ROADS. WINDS WILL ALSO CAUSE 
  SOME BLOWING AND DRIFTING SNOW. SLOW DOWN AND ALLOW EXTRA TIME 
  FOR TRAVEL...AND WATCH FOR RAPIDLY CHANGING CONDITIONS.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

IN LAKE EFFECT SNOW THE WEATHER CAN VARY FROM LOCALLY HEAVY SNOW
IN NARROW BANDS TO CLEAR SKIES JUST A FEW MILES AWAY. IF YOU WILL
BE TRAVELING ACROSS THE REGION BE PREPARED FOR RAPID CHANGES IN
ROAD AND VISIBILITY CONDITIONS.

STAY TUNED TO NOAA WEATHER RADIO OR YOUR FAVORITE SOURCE OF
WEATHER INFORMATION FOR THE LATEST UPDATES. ADDITIONAL DETAILS
CAN ALSO BE FOUND AT WWW.WEATHER.GOV/BUFFALO.

REPORT SNOW ACCUMULATION TO THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE IN
BUFFALO BY SENDING AN EMAIL TO BUFSTORM.REPORT@NOAA.GOV...POSTING
TO THE NWS BUFFALO FACEBOOK PAGE...OR TWEET...USING THE HASHTAG
BUFWX

&&

$$

CHURCH

569 
WWUS41 KBUF 022010
WSWBUF

URGENT - WINTER WEATHER MESSAGE
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BUFFALO NY
310 PM EST WED MAR 2 2016

NYZ012-019-020-085-030415-
/O.CON.KBUF.LE.Y.0018.000000T0000Z-160303T0600Z/
WYOMING-CHAUTAUQUA-CATTARAUGUS-SOUTHERN ERIE-
INCLUDING THE CITIES OF...WARSAW...JAMESTOWN...OLEAN...
ORCHARD PARK...SPRINGVILLE
310 PM EST WED MAR 2 2016

...LAKE EFFECT SNOW ADVISORY REMAINS IN EFFECT UNTIL 1 AM EST
THURSDAY...

* LOCATIONS...SOUTHERN ERIE...WYOMING...CHAUTAUQUA...AND 
  CATTARAUGUS COUNTIES.

* TIMING...THROUGH OVERNIGHT TONIGHT.

* ACCUMULATIONS...STORM TOTALS OF 3 TO 5 INCHES IN THE MOST
  PERSISTENT SNOWS.

* MAXIMUM SNOWFALL RATES...BETWEEN 1 AND 2 INCHES PER HOUR IN THE
  HEAVIEST SNOW THROUGH EARLY THIS EVENING...BEFORE DECREASING IN
  INTENSITY TONIGHT.

* VISIBILITIES...AS LOW AS A QUARTER MILE AT TIMES.

* WINDS...NORTHWEST 10 TO 20 MPH WITH GUSTS UP TO 30 MPH.

* IMPACTS...LAKE EFFECT SNOWS WILL CREATE AREAS OF POOR 
  VISIBILITIES AND SNOW COVERED ROADS. WINDS WILL ALSO CAUSE 
  SOME BLOWING AND DRIFTING SNOW. SLOW DOWN AND ALLOW EXTRA TIME 
  FOR TRAVEL...AND WATCH FOR RAPIDLY CHANGING CONDITIONS.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

A WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY IS NORMALLY ISSUED FOR A VARIETY OF
WINTER WEATHER CONDITIONS SUCH AS LIGHT SNOW...BLOWING SNOW...
SLEET...FREEZING RAIN AND WIND CHILLS. WHILE THE WEATHER WILL BE
SIGNIFICANT...THE WORD ADVISORY IMPLIES THAT SEVERE WINTER
WEATHER IS NOT ANTICIPATED.

IN LAKE EFFECT SNOW THE WEATHER CAN VARY FROM LOCALLY HEAVY SNOW
IN NARROW BANDS TO CLEAR SKIES JUST A FEW MILES AWAY. IF YOU WILL
BE TRAVELING ACROSS THE REGION BE PREPARED FOR RAPID CHANGES IN
ROAD AND VISIBILITY CONDITIONS.

STAY TUNED TO NOAA WEATHER RADIO OR YOUR FAVORITE SOURCE OF
WEATHER INFORMATION FOR THE LATEST UPDATES. ADDITIONAL DETAILS
CAN ALSO BE FOUND AT WWW.WEATHER.GOV/BUFFALO.

REPORT SNOW ACCUMULATION TO THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE IN
BUFFALO BY SENDING AN EMAIL TO BUFSTORM.REPORT@NOAA.GOV...POSTING
TO THE NWS BUFFALO FACEBOOK PAGE...OR TWEET...USING THE HASHTAG
BUFWX

&&

$$

NYZ004-005-030415-
/O.CON.KBUF.LE.Y.0018.000000T0000Z-160303T0600Z/
WAYNE-NORTHERN CAYUGA-
INCLUDING THE CITIES OF...NEWARK...FAIR HAVEN
310 PM EST WED MAR 2 2016

...LAKE EFFECT SNOW ADVISORY REMAINS IN EFFECT UNTIL 1 AM EST
THURSDAY...

* LOCATIONS...WAYNE AND NORTHERN CAYUGA COUNTIES.

* TIMING...THROUGH OVERNIGHT TONIGHT.

* ACCUMULATIONS...STORM TOTALS OF 3 TO 5 INCHES IN THE MOST
  PERSISTENT SNOWS.

* WINDS...NORTHWEST 20 TO 30 MPH.

* VISIBILITIES...AS LOW AS A HALF MILE AT TIMES.

* IMPACTS...LAKE EFFECT SNOWS WILL CREATE AREAS OF POOR 
  VISIBILITIES AND SNOW COVERED ROADS. WINDS WILL ALSO CAUSE 
  SOME BLOWING AND DRIFTING SNOW. SLOW DOWN AND ALLOW EXTRA TIME 
  FOR TRAVEL...AND WATCH FOR RAPIDLY CHANGING CONDITIONS.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

IN LAKE EFFECT SNOW THE WEATHER CAN VARY FROM LOCALLY HEAVY SNOW
IN NARROW BANDS TO CLEAR SKIES JUST A FEW MILES AWAY. IF YOU WILL
BE TRAVELING ACROSS THE REGION BE PREPARED FOR RAPID CHANGES IN
ROAD AND VISIBILITY CONDITIONS.

STAY TUNED TO NOAA WEATHER RADIO OR YOUR FAVORITE SOURCE OF
WEATHER INFORMATION FOR THE LATEST UPDATES. ADDITIONAL DETAILS
CAN ALSO BE FOUND AT WWW.WEATHER.GOV/BUFFALO.

REPORT SNOW ACCUMULATION TO THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE IN
BUFFALO BY SENDING AN EMAIL TO BUFSTORM.REPORT@NOAA.GOV...POSTING
TO THE NWS BUFFALO FACEBOOK PAGE...OR TWEET...USING THE HASHTAG
BUFWX

&&

$$

CHURCH

736 
WWUS41 KBUF 022258
WSWBUF

URGENT - WINTER WEATHER MESSAGE
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BUFFALO NY
558 PM EST WED MAR 2 2016

NYZ004-005-030000-
/O.CAN.KBUF.LE.Y.0018.000000T0000Z-160303T0600Z/
WAYNE-NORTHERN CAYUGA-
INCLUDING THE CITIES OF...NEWARK...FAIR HAVEN
558 PM EST WED MAR 2 2016

...LAKE EFFECT SNOW ADVISORY IS CANCELLED...

THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE IN BUFFALO HAS CANCELLED THE LAKE
EFFECT SNOW ADVISORY.

LAKE EFFECT SNOW WILL CONTINUE TO DIMINISH. ANY ADDITIONAL
ACCUMULATION THIS EVENING WILL BE AN INCH OR LESS.

$$

NYZ012-019-020-085-030600-
/O.CON.KBUF.LE.Y.0018.000000T0000Z-160303T0600Z/
WYOMING-CHAUTAUQUA-CATTARAUGUS-SOUTHERN ERIE-
INCLUDING THE CITIES OF...WARSAW...JAMESTOWN...OLEAN...
ORCHARD PARK...SPRINGVILLE
558 PM EST WED MAR 2 2016

...LAKE EFFECT SNOW ADVISORY REMAINS IN EFFECT UNTIL 1 AM EST
THURSDAY...

* LOCATIONS...SOUTHERN ERIE...WYOMING...CHAUTAUQUA...AND 
  CATTARAUGUS COUNTIES.

* TIMING...THROUGH 1 AM THURSDAY.

* ACCUMULATIONS...ADDITIONAL 2 TO 3 INCHES THIS EVENING.

* MAXIMUM SNOWFALL RATES...UP TO AN INCH PER HOUR IN THE MOST
  PERSISTENT BANDS.

* VISIBILITIES...AS LOW AS A QUARTER MILE AT TIMES.

* WINDS...NORTHWEST 10 TO 15 MPH.

* IMPACTS...BANDS OF LAKE EFFECT SNOW WILL CREATE AREAS OF POOR
  VISIBILITY AND SNOW COVERED ROADS. WINDS WILL ALSO CAUSE SOME
  LIMITED BLOWING AND DRIFTING SNOW. MOTORISTS SHOULD WATCH FOR
  RAPIDLY CHANGING CONDITIONS.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

A WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY IS NORMALLY ISSUED FOR A VARIETY OF
WINTER WEATHER CONDITIONS SUCH AS LIGHT SNOW...BLOWING SNOW...
SLEET...FREEZING RAIN AND WIND CHILLS. WHILE THE WEATHER WILL BE
SIGNIFICANT...THE WORD ADVISORY IMPLIES THAT SEVERE WINTER
WEATHER IS NOT ANTICIPATED.

IN LAKE EFFECT SNOW THE WEATHER CAN VARY FROM LOCALLY HEAVY SNOW
IN NARROW BANDS TO CLEAR SKIES JUST A FEW MILES AWAY. IF YOU WILL
BE TRAVELING ACROSS THE REGION BE PREPARED FOR RAPID CHANGES IN
ROAD AND VISIBILITY CONDITIONS.

STAY TUNED TO NOAA WEATHER RADIO OR YOUR FAVORITE SOURCE OF
WEATHER INFORMATION FOR THE LATEST UPDATES. ADDITIONAL DETAILS
CAN ALSO BE FOUND AT WWW.WEATHER.GOV/BUFFALO.

REPORT SNOW ACCUMULATION TO THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE IN
BUFFALO BY SENDING AN EMAIL TO BUFSTORM.REPORT@NOAA.GOV...POSTING
TO THE NWS BUFFALO FACEBOOK PAGE...OR TWEET...USING THE HASHTAG
BUFWX

&&

$$

HITCHCOCK

847 
WWUS41 KBUF 030456
WSWBUF

URGENT - WINTER WEATHER MESSAGE
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BUFFALO NY
1156 PM EST WED MAR 2 2016

NYZ012-019-020-085-030600-
/O.CAN.KBUF.LE.Y.0018.000000T0000Z-160303T0600Z/
WYOMING-CHAUTAUQUA-CATTARAUGUS-SOUTHERN ERIE-
INCLUDING THE CITIES OF...WARSAW...JAMESTOWN...OLEAN...
ORCHARD PARK...SPRINGVILLE
1156 PM EST WED MAR 2 2016

...LAKE EFFECT SNOW ADVISORY IS CANCELLED...

THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE IN BUFFALO HAS CANCELLED THE LAKE
EFFECT SNOW ADVISORY.

LAKE EFFECT SNOW WILL CONTINUE TO DIMINISH OVERNIGHT. ADDITIONAL
ACCUMULATION WILL BE AN INCH OR LESS.

$$

HITCHCOCK

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BUFFALO NY
743 AM EST WED MAR 2 2016

.SYNOPSIS...
A STORM SYSTEM THAT BROUGHT A WINTRY MIX ACROSS EASTERN AND NORTH
CENTRAL NEW YORK STATE THIS EARLY MORNING WILL CONTINUE TO DEPART TO
THE EAST...WITH LINGERING LIGHT LAKE EFFECT SNOW SOUTH AND SOUTHEAST
OF THE LAKES THROUGH TONIGHT. COLDER AIR POURING OVER THE EASTERN
GREAT LAKES REGION...COMBINED WITH AN AREA OF HIGH PRESSURE EDGING
OVER THE REGION TONIGHT WILL ALLOW FOR A COLD NIGHT WITH
TEMPERATURES WELL BELOW EARLY MARCH NORMALS.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
THIS MORNING A STORM SYSTEM
CONTINUES ITS FAST EXIT FROM THE REGION...WITH THE CENTER OF THE LOW
NOW OVER NORTHERN NEW ENGLAND. REGIONAL RADARS ARE CLEAR OF THE
SYNOPTIC PRECIPITATION...HOWEVER WITH THE ONSET OF MUCH COLDER AIR
LAKE EFFECT SNOW HAS DEVELOPED IN ITS WAKE. IR SATELLITE IMAGERY
DISPLAYS CLEARING OVER THE CANADIAN NIAGARA PENINSULA THIS
MORNING...AND AS THAT DRIER AIR WORKS EASTWARD WE SHOULD SEE A
DIMINISHMENT OF SNOWS OVER THE NEXT FEW HOURS EAST OF LAKE
ERIE...AND BY LATE THIS MORNING SOUTHEAST OF LAKE ONTARIO. AN
ADDITIONAL 2-3 INCHES OF SNOW IS POSSIBLE IN ANY LAKE BANDS OF SNOW
THIS MORNING.

FOR THE HEADLINES...WE WILL END WAYNE AND NORTHERN CAYUGA COUNTY AS
ADDITIONAL SNOW WILL BE MINIMAL HERE.

WILL MAINTAIN THE NIAGARA FRONTIER THROUGH ROCHESTER HEADLINE.
THERE WAS A FAIR AMOUNT OF FREEZING RAIN LAST EVENING AND
OVERNIGHT...AND SEVERAL INCHES OF SNOW ON TOP OF UNTREATED...OR
ICY/SLUSHY ROADS MAY STILL IMPACT TRAVEL THIS EARLY MORNING.

EAST OF LAKE ONTARIO...FREEZING RAIN WAS MINIMAL OVERNIGHT...BUT
LIKE WNY WILL MAINTAIN THE WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY FOR A FEW INCHES
ON TOP OF ANY ICY SPOTS THIS MORNING.

FOR TODAY...OUR STORM SYSTEM WILL PUSH EASTWARD WITH SYNOPTIC
PRECIPITATION ENDING THROUGH THE MORNING HOURS EAST OF LAKE
ONTARIO. ACROSS WESTERN NEW YORK A MUCH COLDER AIRMASS...WITH
850 HPA TEMPERATURES DROPPING QUICKLY TO -16C...WILL PUSH ACROSS
THE LAKES...AND THIS WILL GENERATE LIGHT LAKE EFFECT SNOWS. THERE
WILL BE SOME DRYING IN THE MID LEVELS AS THE SNOWS START...AND
THIS DRIER AIR WILL COUNTERACT THE LAKE INSTABILITY AND WILL LIMIT
THE SNOWS TO MINIMAL ACCUMULATIONS THROUGH THE DAY AND NIGHT
TONIGHT.

THERE IS POSSIBILITY THAT AN UPSTREAM CONNECTION TO LAKE HURON MAY
DEVELOP LATER TODAY AND IF THIS OCCURS...A BURST OF MODERATE SNOW
WILL DEVELOP WITH SEVERAL INCHES OF SNOW POSSIBLE IN A NARROW BAND
ACROSS SKI COUNTY AND THE FAR SOUTHERN SUBURBS OF BUFFALO.
LIKEWISE SOUTH OF LAKE ONTARIO AN UPSTREAM CONNECTION TO
GEORGIAN BAY MAY DEVELOP...WITH ENHANCED SNOWS ALONG THE SOUTHERN
SHORE TODAY AND TONIGHT...THAT LOCALLY MAY DROP AN INCH OR TWO OF
SNOW.

IN ADDITION TO LAKE EFFECT SNOW TODAY...IT WILL ALSO BECOME WINDY.
A STILL STRONG PRESSURE GRADIENT OVER THE EASTERN GREAT
LAKES...COMBINED WITH THE STRONG COLD AIR ADVECTION WILL BRING
GUSTY NORTHWEST WINDS UPWARDS TO 40 MPH ALONG THE LAKE SHORES
(INCLUDING THE MONROE TO OSWEGO STRETCH)...AND 30 TO 35 MPH ACROSS
THE UPPER GENESEE VALLEY AND FINGER LAKES REGION.

TONIGHT AN AREA OF HIGH PRESSURE WILL DROP SOUTHEASTWARD FROM THE
NORTHERN GREAT LAKES REGION. THIS HIGH PRESSURE WILL SUPPLY DRY
AIR...AND LOWER LAKE EQUILIBRIUM LEVELS THAT WILL FURTHER DEPLETE
LAKE EFFECT SNOW...WHILE BRINGING CLEARING SKIES TO THE NORTH
COUNTRY. THE FRESH COLD AIRMASS AND MUCH LIGHTER WINDS WILL
PRODUCE OVERNIGHT LOWS IN THE TEENS ACROSS WNY...AND SINGLE
DIGITS TO BELOW ZERO EAST OF LAKE ONTARIO.

&&

.SHORT TERM /THURSDAY THROUGH SATURDAY NIGHT/...
WHILE THERE WILL NOT BE ANY REAL NOTEWORTHY WEATHER DURING THIS
PERIOD...MOTHER NATURE WILL BE BUSY SETTING THE STAGE FOR WHAT
SHOULD BE A SIGNIFICANT SPRING LIKE WARM UP IN THE LONG TERM
PERIOD. AN OMINOUS SIGN FOR WINTER LOVERS IS THAT THE WRITING IS
ALREADY ON THE WALL FOR THIS WARM UP AS THE COLDEST AIR IN THE
NORTHERN HEMISPHERE IS ALREADY SHIFTING EAST OF 80 W LONGITUDE (IE
JAMES BAY).

THE PATTERN CHANGE WILL COME AT THE EXPENSE OF A PERSISTENT UPPER
LEVEL RIDGE OVER WESTERN NORTH AMERICA THAT WILL BE BATTERED DOWN
BY A RELENTLESS ONSLAUGHT OF ROBUST PACIFIC SHORTWAVES WITHIN AN
ANOMALOUSLY STRONG (175 KTS) H25 JET. EACH TIME THE RIDGE WILL BE
BEATEN DOWN...IT WILL TEMPORARILY REAMPLIFY A LITTLE FURTHER TO
THE EAST. THIS WILL ALLOW PACIFIC AIR TO PENETRATE DEEPER INTO THE
INTERIOR OF THE LOWER 48 WITH THE CHANGING PATTERN EVENTUALLY
TAPPING INTO MORE NOTABLE WARMTH FROM OLD MEXICO AND THE GULF.
THIS WILL ALL LEAD TO MODEST DAY TO DAY WARMING TREND THROUGH
SATURDAY... WITH THE MOST PRONOUNCED UPWARD SWING BEING
EXPERIENCED EARLY NEXT WEEK. MORE ON THIS IN THE LONG TERM PORTION
OF THIS DISCUSSION.

HIGH PRESSURE CENTERED OVER THE OTTAWA VALLEY AND ADIRONDACKS ON
THURSDAY WILL PROVIDE GENERALLY FAIR WEATHER ACROSS THE MAJORITY OF
THE FORECAST AREA...BUT THERE WILL BE TWO AREAS THAT COULD PICK UP
SOME VERY LIGHT SNOW. THE FIRST WILL BE A VERY MINOR PATCH OF LAKE
EFFECT SNOW SOUTHEAST OF LK ONTARIO. THIS PALTRY MORNING ACTIVITY
WILL BE LIMITED BY A LOW CAP ARND 5K FT AND A MOISTURE STARVED
SYNOPTIC ENVIRONMENT THAT WILL KEEP ANY DAYTIME SNOW ACCUMS TO UNDER
A HALF INCH. AN INVERTED TROUGH EXTENDING NORTH FROM A WEAK CLIPPER
OVER THE OHIO VALLEY WILL BE RESPONSIBLE FOR THE SECOND AREA OF
LIGHT SNOW...WHICH WILL BE FOUND OVER THE SOUTHERN TIER DURING THE
AFTERNOON. AGAIN...DAYTIME ACCUMS FROM THIS WILL BE UNDER A HALF
INCH. OTHERWISE...THURSDAY WILL BE COLD WITH MAX TEMPS RANGING FROM
THE MID AND UPPER 20S OVER THE WESTERN COUNTIES OT THE TEENS ACROSS
THE NORTH COUNTRY.

WHILE THE AFOREMENTIONED OHIO VALLEY SHORTWAVE WILL TRACK BY WELL
TO THE SOUTH OF OUR REGION THURSDAY NIGHT...ENOUGH CONVERGENCE IN
THE VCNTY OF AN ASSOCIATED INVERTED SFC TROUGH WILL PRODUCE SOME
LIGHT SNOW ACROSS THE SOUTHERN TIER COUNTIES. HAVE CONTINUED THE
TREND OF RAISING POPS FOR THIS AREA FOR THE OVERNIGHT...BOOSTING
POPS TO CATEGORICAL ALONG THE PA BORDER WHERE THERE CAN BE UP TO 2
INCH SNOW ACCUMS...AND THEN PROGRESSIVELY TAPERING THOSE NUMBERS TO
CHC LEVELS ALONG THE SOUTH SHORE OF LK ONTARIO. NO SNOW IS FORECAST
FOR THE NORTH COUNTRY WHERE TEMPERATURES COULD DROP BELOW ZERO.

AS THE INVERTED SFC TROUGH EXITS ACROSS SOUTHEAST NEW YORK FRIDAY
MORNING...HIGH PRESSURE OVER THE ST LAWRENCE VALLEY WILL ARCH BACK
ACROSS THE LOWER GREAT LAKES FRIDAY AFTERNOON AND NIGHT. THIS WILL
END THE LIGHT SNOW OVER THE WESTERN COUNTIES WITH GRADUAL CLEARING
TAKING PLACE DURING THE COURSE OF THE DAY. WHILE TEMPERATURES WILL
CLIMB SEVERAL DEGREES FROM THE PREVIOUS AFTERNOON...THE MERCURY WILL
REMAIN FIRMLY BELOW NORMAL EARLY MARCH VALUES AS HIGHS WILL
GENERALLY BE WITHIN A FEW DEGREES OF FREEZING.

THE SFC BASED RIDGING WILL REMAIN OUR CONTROLLING WEATHER FEATURE
FOR MUCH OF SATURDAY...HOWEVER ANOTHER WEAK CLIPPER DIVING BY TO OUR
SOUTHWEST WILL ENCOURAGE CLOUDS TO INCREASE FROM WEST TO EAST AS THE
DAY MATURES. THERE COULD EVEN BE SOME LIGHT SNOW SHOWERS OVER PARTS
OF THE SRN TIER DURING THE AFTERNOON. TEMPERATURES SATURDAY WILL
MODERATE INTO THE LOW TO MID 30S FOR THE WRN COUNTIES AND WILL
REMAIN CLOSE TO 30 ACROSS THE NORTH COUNTRY.

&&

.LONG TERM /SUNDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
...METEOROLOGICAL SPRING WILL BLOSSOM DURING THIS PERIOD...

THERE IS NOW NO REASON TO DOUBT THAT A SIGNIFICANT WARM UP WILL TAKE
PLACE DURING THIS PERIOD...AS A BROAD BASED TROUGH WILL BECOME
ESTABLISHED OVER THE WESTERN HALF OF THE COUNTRY WHILE A DOWNSTREAM
RIDGE WILL AMPLIFY OVER THE EAST. ALL OF THE ECMWF AND GEFS ENSEMBLE
MEMBERS ARE IN STRONG AGREEMENT OF THIS PATTERN...WHICH VERY HIGHLY
CORRELATES TO ABOVE (IF NOT MUCH ABV) NORMAL TEMPS FOR OUR REGION.
FOR WHAT ITS WORTH...CPC IS ADVERTISING A HIGH LIKELIHOOD FOR THIS
SPRING WARM UP AS WELL. WHILE THE MERCURY WILL ONLY REACH TO BETWEEN
35 AND 40 ON SUNDAY...READINGS WILL BE NEAR 50 BY MONDAY AFTERNOON
AND MANY AREAS (MAINLY WRN COUNTIES) WILL EXPERIENCE HIGHS IN THE
60S FOR TUESDAY. TO PUT THESE NUMBERS INTO SOME PERSPECTIVE...THE
MAX TEMPS FOR THE WESTERN COUNTIES ON TUESDAY WILL BE A SOLID
20 DEG F ABV NORMAL.

IN TERMS OF PCPN DURING THIS PERIOD...RIDGING OVER THE ERN HALF OF
THE COUNTRY SHOULD PROMOTE MAINLY DRY WEATHER.

LOOKING DEEPER INTO NEXT WEEK...TEMPERATURES WILL REMAIN WELL
ABOVE NORMAL THROUGH AT LEAST THURSDAY AS RIDGING WILL BE
ANCHORED ALONG THE EAST COAST.

&&

.AVIATION /13Z WEDNESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
A STORM SYSTEM IS QUICKLY EXITING EASTWARD THIS MORNING WITH
SYNOPTIC PRECIPITATION WANING...AND LAKE EFFECT SNOW FOLLOWING IN
ITS WAKE. LIGHT SNOW/LAKE EFFECT SNOW WITH IFR AND LOWER VSBYS WILL
CONTINUE ACROSS WNY BETWEEN 12Z AND 15Z...AFTERWHICH A
DIMINISHMENT IN COVERAGE AREA SHOULD LIMIT ANY FLIGHT RESTRICTIONS
TO NEAR THE KJHW TERMINAL...AND POSSIBLY KROC SOUTH OF LAKE
ONTARIO.

LAKE EFFECT SNOW...WITH IFR AND LOWER FLIGHT CONDITIONS WILL
INCREASE AGAIN THIS AFTERNOON AS UPSTREAM LAKE CONNECTIONS BRIEFLY
ENHANCE LAKE BANDS OF SNOW EAST OF THE LAKES. AS GUSTY NORTHWEST
WINDS BACK TO WESTERLY THIS AFTERNOON THIS WILL ALLOW THE LAKE
EFFECT SNOW TO LIFT NORTH OF THE KJHW TERMINAL...WHILE POSSIBLY
IMPACTING KBUF LATE THIS AFTERNOON.

LAKE EFFECT SNOW OFF LAKE ONTARIO MAY PASS THROUGH THE KROC AIRFIELD
THROUGH THE EARLY EVENING HOURS...WITH AN UPSTREAM CONNECTION TO
GEORGIAN BAY.

LAKE EFFECT SNOW WILL DIMINISH THIS EVENING AS AN AREA OF HIGH
PRESSURE DROPS SOUTHWARD ACROSS THE REGION. THIS AREA OF HIGH
PRESSURE WILL ALSO ALLOW FOR A DIMINISHMENT IN WINDS OVERNIGHT.

OUTLOOK...

THURSDAY...MVFR/VFR WITH SCATTERED FLURRIES AND SNOW SHOWERS.
THURSDAY NIGHT AND FRIDAY...A CHANCE OF LIGHT SNOW WITH ASSOCIATED
MVFR/IFR.
SATURDAY AND SUNDAY...MAINLY VFR.

&&

.MARINE...
BEHIND A STORM SYSTEM PASSING JUST TO THE SOUTH AND EAST
OF LAKE ONTARIO THIS MORNING WEST TO NORTHWEST WINDS WILL DEVELOP
OVER THE EASTERN GREAT LAKES. SMALL CRAFT ADVISORIES WILL BE IN
EFFECT FOR THE LAKES...AND RIVER THROUGH TONIGHT. HIGH PRESSURE
TONIGHT DROPPING OVER THE EASTERN GREAT LAKES REGION WILL DIMINISH
BOTH WINDS AND WAVES.

&&

.BUF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NY...WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY UNTIL 1 PM EST THIS AFTERNOON FOR
     NYZ006>008.
     WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY UNTIL 10 AM EST THIS MORNING FOR
     NYZ001>003-010>012-085.
MARINE...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 4 PM EST THIS AFTERNOON FOR LEZ020.
         SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 10 PM EST THIS EVENING FOR
         LEZ040-041.
         SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 4 PM EST THIS AFTERNOON
         FOR LOZ030.
         SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 4 AM EST THURSDAY FOR
         LOZ042>045.

&&

SYNOPSIS...THOMAS
NEAR TERM...THOMAS
SHORT TERM...RSH
LONG TERM...RSH
AVIATION...THOMAS
MARINE...THOMAS

HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BUFFALO NY
743 AM EST WED MAR 2 2016

NYZ006>008-031245-
OSWEGO-JEFFERSON-LEWIS-
743 AM EST WED MAR 2 2016

...WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY IN EFFECT UNTIL 1 PM EST THIS AFTERNOON...

THIS HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK IS FOR PORTIONS OF CENTRAL NEW YORK.

.DAY ONE...TODAY AND TONIGHT.

PLEASE LISTEN TO NOAA WEATHER RADIO OR GO TO WEATHER.GOV ON THE
INTERNET FOR MORE INFORMATION ABOUT THE FOLLOWING HAZARDS.

   WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...THURSDAY THROUGH TUESDAY.

THE PROBABILITY FOR WIDESPREAD HAZARDOUS WEATHER IS LOW.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

SPOTTER ACTIVATION IS NOT EXPECTED AT THIS TIME.

THIS PRODUCT...ALONG WITH OTHER WATCHES...WARNINGS...ADVISORIES...
AND STATEMENTS ISSUED BY THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE OFFICE IN
BUFFALO CAN BE FOUND ON THE INTERNET AT HTTP://WWW.WEATHER.GOV/BUF

NYZ004-005-013-014-019>021-031245-
WAYNE-NORTHERN CAYUGA-LIVINGSTON-ONTARIO-CHAUTAUQUA-CATTARAUGUS-
ALLEGANY-
743 AM EST WED MAR 2 2016

THIS HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK IS FOR PORTIONS OF CENTRAL NEW YORK
AND WESTERN NEW YORK.

.DAY ONE...TODAY AND TONIGHT.

THE PROBABILITY FOR WIDESPREAD HAZARDOUS WEATHER IS LOW.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...THURSDAY THROUGH TUESDAY.

THE PROBABILITY FOR WIDESPREAD HAZARDOUS WEATHER IS LOW.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

SPOTTER ACTIVATION IS NOT EXPECTED AT THIS TIME.

THIS PRODUCT...ALONG WITH OTHER WATCHES...WARNINGS...ADVISORIES...
AND STATEMENTS ISSUED BY THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE OFFICE IN
BUFFALO CAN BE FOUND ON THE INTERNET AT HTTP://WWW.WEATHER.GOV/BUF

NYZ001>003-010>012-085-031245-
NIAGARA-ORLEANS-MONROE-NORTHERN ERIE-GENESEE-WYOMING-SOUTHERN ERIE-
743 AM EST WED MAR 2 2016

...WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY IN EFFECT UNTIL 10 AM EST THIS MORNING...

THIS HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK IS FOR PORTIONS OF WESTERN NEW YORK.

.DAY ONE...TODAY AND TONIGHT.

PLEASE LISTEN TO NOAA WEATHER RADIO OR GO TO WEATHER.GOV ON THE
INTERNET FOR MORE INFORMATION ABOUT THE FOLLOWING HAZARDS.

   WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...THURSDAY THROUGH TUESDAY.

THE PROBABILITY FOR WIDESPREAD HAZARDOUS WEATHER IS LOW.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

SPOTTER ACTIVATION IS NOT EXPECTED AT THIS TIME.

THIS PRODUCT...ALONG WITH OTHER WATCHES...WARNINGS...ADVISORIES...
AND STATEMENTS ISSUED BY THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE OFFICE IN
BUFFALO CAN BE FOUND ON THE INTERNET AT HTTP://WWW.WEATHER.GOV/BUF

LEZ020-040-041-LOZ030-042>045-062>065-031245-
UPPER NIAGARA RIVER AND BUFFALO HARBOR-
LAKE ERIE NEARSHORE WATERS FROM RIPLEY TO DUNKIRK-
LAKE ERIE NEARSHORE WATERS FROM DUNKIRK TO BUFFALO-
LOWER NIAGARA RIVER-
LAKE ONTARIO NEARSHORE WATERS FROM THE NIAGARA RIVER TO HAMLIN BEACH-
LAKE ONTARIO NEARSHORE WATERS FROM HAMLIN BEACH TO SODUS BAY-
LAKE ONTARIO NEARSHORE WATERS FROM SODUS BAY TO MEXICO BAY-
LAKE ONTARIO NEARSHORE WATERS FROM MEXICO BAY TO THE SAINT LAWRENCE
RIVER-
LAKE ONTARIO OPEN WATERS FROM THE NIAGARA RIVER TO HAMLIN BEACH-
LAKE ONTARIO OPEN WATERS FROM HAMLIN BEACH TO SODUS BAY-
LAKE ONTARIO OPEN WATERS FROM SODUS BAY TO MEXICO BAY-
LAKE ONTARIO OPEN WATERS FROM MEXICO BAY TO THE SAINT LAWRENCE RIVER-
743 AM EST WED MAR 2 2016

THIS HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK IS FOR PORTIONS OF LAKE ERIE AND LAKE
ONTARIO.

.DAY ONE...TODAY AND TONIGHT.

THE PROBABILITY FOR WIDESPREAD HAZARDOUS WEATHER IS LOW.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...THURSDAY THROUGH TUESDAY.

THE PROBABILITY FOR WIDESPREAD HAZARDOUS WEATHER IS LOW.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

SPOTTER ACTIVATION IS NOT EXPECTED AT THIS TIME.

THIS PRODUCT...ALONG WITH OTHER WATCHES...WARNINGS...ADVISORIES...
AND STATEMENTS ISSUED BY THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE OFFICE IN
BUFFALO CAN BE FOUND ON THE INTERNET AT HTTP://WWW.WEATHER.GOV/BUF

THOMAS

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BUFFALO NY
713 AM EST WED MAR 02 2016

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

1201 AM     FREEZING RAIN    NORTH TONAWANDA         43.04N  78.87W
03/02/2016  E0.00 INCH       NIAGARA            NY   COOP OBSERVER

            GLAZE OF ICE OBSERVED AT MIDNIGHT

0600 AM     FREEZING RAIN    MEDINA                  43.22N  78.38W
03/02/2016  E0.00 INCH       ORLEANS            NY   COOP OBSERVER

            SLIGHT COATING OF ICE OBSERVED UNDER THE SNOW

&&

EVENT NUMBER BUF1600783
EVENT NUMBER BUF1600784

DK

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BUFFALO NY
721 AM EST WED MAR 02 2016

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

0656 AM     FREEZING RAIN    WATERTOWN AIRPORT       43.99N  76.02W
03/02/2016  M0.10 INCH       JEFFERSON          NY   ASOS

            6-HOUR ICE ACCUMULATION MEASURED BE ICE ACCRETION
            SENSOR ON ASOS

&&

EVENT NUMBER BUF1600785

DK

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BUFFALO NY
726 AM EST WED MAR 02 2016

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

0700 AM     FREEZING RAIN    5 WNW CLARENCE CENTER   43.04N  78.73W
03/02/2016  E0.10 INCH       ERIE               NY   COCORAHS

            LESS THAN 0.1 OF ICE ACCRETION

&&

EVENT NUMBER BUF1600786

DK

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BUFFALO NY
758 AM EST WED MAR 02 2016

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

0700 AM     FREEZING RAIN    3 W WYOMING             42.83N  78.14W
03/02/2016  M0.13 INCH       WYOMING            NY   COOP OBSERVER

            OBSERVER MEASURED 1/8 OF ICE

&&

EVENT NUMBER BUF1600787

DK

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BUFFALO NY
828 AM EST WED MAR 02 2016

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

0800 AM     FREEZING RAIN    KENMORE                 42.97N  78.87W
03/02/2016  E0.20 INCH       ERIE               NY   NWS EMPLOYEE

0800 AM     FREEZING RAIN    ORCHARD PARK            42.78N  78.74W
03/02/2016  E0.20 INCH       ERIE               NY   NWS EMPLOYEE

&&

EVENT NUMBER BUF1600788
EVENT NUMBER BUF1600789

DK

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BUFFALO NY
838 AM EST WED MAR 02 2016

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

0700 AM     FREEZING RAIN    1 ESE IRONDEQUOIT       43.20N  77.55W
03/02/2016  E0.25 INCH       MONROE             NY   SOCIAL MEDIA

&&

EVENT NUMBER BUF1600790

DK