High Wind Watch 1, NWS Buffalo, NY

181 
WWUS71 KBUF 090327
NPWBUF

URGENT - WEATHER MESSAGE
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BUFFALO NY
1027 PM EST FRI JAN 8 2016

NYZ019-085-091130-
/O.CON.KBUF.HW.A.0001.160110T0300Z-160110T1500Z/
CHAUTAUQUA-SOUTHERN ERIE-
INCLUDING THE CITIES OF...JAMESTOWN...ORCHARD PARK...SPRINGVILLE
1027 PM EST FRI JAN 8 2016

...HIGH WIND WATCH REMAINS IN EFFECT FROM SATURDAY EVENING
THROUGH SUNDAY MORNING...

* LOCATIONS...CHAUTAUQUA AND SOUTHERN ERIE COUNTIES. THE 
  STRONGEST WINDS WILL BE IN DOWNSLOPE REGIONS NEAR THE 
  LAKESHORE.

* TIMING...FROM LATE SATURDAY EVENING THROUGH LATE SUNDAY 
  MORNING.

* WINDS...SOUTHEAST 20 TO 30 MPH WITH GUSTS UP TO 60 MPH.

* IMPACTS...GUSTY WINDS MAY DAMAGE TREES RESULTING IN POWER 
  OUTAGES. HIGH WINDS WILL BE PERPENDICULAR TO THE NEW YORK 
  STATE THRUWAY WHICH CAN POSE A HAZARD TO HIGH PROFILE VEHICLES.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

A HIGH WIND WATCH MEANS THAT THE POTENTIAL EXISTS FOR STRONG
DAMAGING WINDS TO DEVELOP. THESE STRONG WINDS COULD BRING DOWN
TREES AND POWER LINES AS WELL AS CAUSE PROPERTY DAMAGE. IF A HIGH
WIND WARNING IS ISSUED...STAY INSIDE...AND AWAY FROM WINDOWS. BE
PREPARED FOR TREES BLOCKING ROADWAYS AND POWER OUTAGES. STAY
TUNED TO WEATHER RADIO OR THE OTHER RADIO AND TV STATIONS FOR
FURTHER DETAILS OR UPDATES.

&&

$$

NYZ007-008-091130-
/O.CON.KBUF.HW.A.0001.160110T0900Z-160110T1800Z/
JEFFERSON-LEWIS-
INCLUDING THE CITIES OF...WATERTOWN...LOWVILLE
1027 PM EST FRI JAN 8 2016

...HIGH WIND WATCH REMAINS IN EFFECT FROM LATE SATURDAY NIGHT
THROUGH SUNDAY AFTERNOON...

* LOCATIONS...JEFFERSON AND LEWIS COUNTIES...ESPECIALLY ON NORTH 
  AND NORTHWEST FACING SLOPES OF THE TUG HILL AND IN THE BLACK 
  AND SAINT LAWRENCE RIVER VALLEYS.

* TIMING...FROM LATE SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH EARLY SUNDAY 
  AFTERNOON.

* WINDS...SOUTHEAST 25 TO 35 MPH WITH GUSTS UP TO 60 MPH.

* IMPACTS...WINDS OF THIS MAGNITUDE WILL TYPICALLY RESULT IN 
  SOME MINOR PROPERTY DAMAGE AND ISOLATED POWER OUTAGES. 
  REMEMBER TO SECURE LOOSE OBJECTS OUTSIDE.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

A HIGH WIND WATCH MEANS THAT THE POTENTIAL EXISTS FOR STRONG
DAMAGING WINDS TO DEVELOP. THESE STRONG WINDS COULD BRING DOWN
TREES AND POWER LINES AS WELL AS CAUSE PROPERTY DAMAGE. IF A HIGH
WIND WARNING IS ISSUED...STAY INSIDE...AND AWAY FROM WINDOWS. BE
PREPARED FOR TREES BLOCKING ROADWAYS AND POWER OUTAGES. STAY
TUNED TO WEATHER RADIO OR THE OTHER RADIO AND TV STATIONS FOR
FURTHER DETAILS OR UPDATES.

&&

$$

CHURCH

797 
WWUS71 KBUF 090840
NPWBUF

URGENT - WEATHER MESSAGE
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BUFFALO NY
340 AM EST SAT JAN 9 2016

NYZ019-085-091645-
/O.UPG.KBUF.HW.A.0001.160110T0300Z-160110T1500Z/
/O.NEW.KBUF.WI.Y.0001.160110T0300Z-160110T1500Z/
CHAUTAUQUA-SOUTHERN ERIE-
INCLUDING THE CITIES OF...JAMESTOWN...ORCHARD PARK...SPRINGVILLE
340 AM EST SAT JAN 9 2016

...WIND ADVISORY IN EFFECT FROM 10 PM THIS EVENING TO 10 AM EST
SUNDAY...

THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE IN BUFFALO HAS ISSUED A WIND
ADVISORY...WHICH IS IN EFFECT FROM 10 PM THIS EVENING TO 10 AM
EST SUNDAY. THE HIGH WIND WATCH IS NO LONGER IN EFFECT.

* LOCATIONS...CHAUTAUQUA AND SOUTHERN ERIE COUNTIES. THE 
  STRONGEST WINDS WILL BE IN DOWNSLOPE REGIONS NEAR THE 
  LAKESHORE.

* TIMING...FROM LATE THIS EVENING THROUGH LATE SUNDAY MORNING.

* WINDS...SOUTHEAST 20 TO 30 MPH WITH GUSTS UP TO 50 MPH.

* IMPACTS...GUSTY WINDS MAY DAMAGE TREES RESULTING IN POWER 
  OUTAGES. HIGH WINDS WILL BE PERPENDICULAR TO THE NEW YORK 
  STATE THRUWAY WHICH CAN POSE A HAZARD TO HIGH PROFILE VEHICLES.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

A WIND ADVISORY IS ISSUED WHEN SUSTAINED WINDS ARE FORECAST TO BE
31 TO 39 MPH OR GUSTS WILL RANGE BETWEEN 46 AND 57 MPH. WINDS OF
THESE MAGNITUDES MAY CAUSE MINOR PROPERTY DAMAGE WITHOUT EXTRA
PRECAUTIONS. MOTORISTS IN HIGH PROFILE VEHICLES SHOULD USE
CAUTION UNTIL THE WINDS SUBSIDE. STAY TUNED TO NOAA WEATHER RADIO
AND OTHER RADIO AND TV STATIONS FOR FURTHER DETAILS OR UPDATES.

&&

$$

NYZ007-008-091645-
/O.CON.KBUF.HW.A.0001.160110T0900Z-160110T1800Z/
JEFFERSON-LEWIS-
INCLUDING THE CITIES OF...WATERTOWN...LOWVILLE
340 AM EST SAT JAN 9 2016

...HIGH WIND WATCH REMAINS IN EFFECT FROM LATE TONIGHT THROUGH
SUNDAY AFTERNOON...

* LOCATIONS...JEFFERSON AND LEWIS COUNTIES...ESPECIALLY ON NORTH 
  AND NORTHWEST FACING SLOPES OF THE TUG HILL AND IN THE BLACK 
  AND SAINT LAWRENCE RIVER VALLEYS.

* TIMING...FROM LATE TONIGHT THROUGH EARLY SUNDAY AFTERNOON.

* WINDS...SOUTHEAST 25 TO 35 MPH WITH GUSTS UP TO 60 MPH.

* IMPACTS...WINDS OF THIS MAGNITUDE WILL TYPICALLY RESULT IN 
  SOME MINOR PROPERTY DAMAGE AND ISOLATED POWER OUTAGES. 
  REMEMBER TO SECURE LOOSE OBJECTS OUTSIDE.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

A HIGH WIND WATCH MEANS THAT THE POTENTIAL EXISTS FOR STRONG
DAMAGING WINDS TO DEVELOP. THESE STRONG WINDS COULD BRING DOWN
TREES AND POWER LINES AS WELL AS CAUSE PROPERTY DAMAGE. IF A HIGH
WIND WARNING IS ISSUED...STAY INSIDE...AND AWAY FROM WINDOWS. BE
PREPARED FOR TREES BLOCKING ROADWAYS AND POWER OUTAGES. STAY
TUNED TO WEATHER RADIO OR THE OTHER RADIO AND TV STATIONS FOR
FURTHER DETAILS OR UPDATES.

&&

$$

TMA

958 
WWUS71 KBUF 091557
NPWBUF

URGENT - WEATHER MESSAGE
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BUFFALO NY
1057 AM EST SAT JAN 9 2016

NYZ019-085-100000-
/O.CON.KBUF.WI.Y.0001.160110T0300Z-160110T1500Z/
CHAUTAUQUA-SOUTHERN ERIE-
INCLUDING THE CITIES OF...JAMESTOWN...ORCHARD PARK...SPRINGVILLE
1057 AM EST SAT JAN 9 2016

...WIND ADVISORY REMAINS IN EFFECT FROM 10 PM THIS EVENING TO
10 AM EST SUNDAY...

* LOCATIONS...CHAUTAUQUA AND SOUTHERN ERIE COUNTIES. THE 
  STRONGEST WINDS WILL BE IN DOWNSLOPE REGIONS NEAR THE 
  LAKESHORE.

* TIMING...FROM LATE THIS EVENING THROUGH LATE SUNDAY MORNING.

* WINDS...SOUTHEAST 20 TO 30 MPH WITH GUSTS UP TO 50 MPH.

* IMPACTS...GUSTY WINDS MAY DAMAGE TREES RESULTING IN POWER 
  OUTAGES. HIGH WINDS WILL BE PERPENDICULAR TO THE NEW YORK 
  STATE THRUWAY WHICH CAN POSE A HAZARD TO HIGH PROFILE VEHICLES.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

A WIND ADVISORY IS ISSUED WHEN SUSTAINED WINDS ARE FORECAST TO BE
31 TO 39 MPH OR GUSTS WILL RANGE BETWEEN 46 AND 57 MPH. WINDS OF
THESE MAGNITUDES MAY CAUSE MINOR PROPERTY DAMAGE WITHOUT EXTRA
PRECAUTIONS. MOTORISTS IN HIGH PROFILE VEHICLES SHOULD USE
CAUTION UNTIL THE WINDS SUBSIDE. STAY TUNED TO NOAA WEATHER RADIO
AND OTHER RADIO AND TV STATIONS FOR FURTHER DETAILS OR UPDATES.

&&

$$

NYZ007-008-100000-
/O.CON.KBUF.HW.A.0001.160110T0900Z-160110T1800Z/
JEFFERSON-LEWIS-
INCLUDING THE CITIES OF...WATERTOWN...LOWVILLE
1057 AM EST SAT JAN 9 2016

...HIGH WIND WATCH REMAINS IN EFFECT FROM LATE TONIGHT THROUGH
SUNDAY AFTERNOON...

* LOCATIONS...JEFFERSON AND LEWIS COUNTIES...ESPECIALLY ON NORTH 
  AND NORTHWEST FACING SLOPES OF THE TUG HILL AND IN THE BLACK 
  AND SAINT LAWRENCE RIVER VALLEYS.

* TIMING...FROM LATE TONIGHT THROUGH EARLY SUNDAY AFTERNOON.

* WINDS...SOUTHEAST 25 TO 35 MPH WITH GUSTS UP TO 60 MPH.

* IMPACTS...WINDS OF THIS MAGNITUDE WILL TYPICALLY RESULT IN 
  SOME MINOR PROPERTY DAMAGE AND ISOLATED POWER OUTAGES. 
  REMEMBER TO SECURE LOOSE OBJECTS OUTSIDE.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

A HIGH WIND WATCH MEANS THAT THE POTENTIAL EXISTS FOR STRONG
DAMAGING WINDS TO DEVELOP. THESE STRONG WINDS COULD BRING DOWN
TREES AND POWER LINES AS WELL AS CAUSE PROPERTY DAMAGE. IF A HIGH
WIND WARNING IS ISSUED...STAY INSIDE...AND AWAY FROM WINDOWS. BE
PREPARED FOR TREES BLOCKING ROADWAYS AND POWER OUTAGES. STAY
TUNED TO WEATHER RADIO OR THE OTHER RADIO AND TV STATIONS FOR
FURTHER DETAILS OR UPDATES.

&&

$$

HITCHCOCK

671 
WWUS71 KBUF 091740
NPWBUF

URGENT - WEATHER MESSAGE
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BUFFALO NY
1240 PM EST SAT JAN 9 2016

NYZ007-008-100145-
/O.UPG.KBUF.HW.A.0001.160110T0900Z-160110T1800Z/
/O.NEW.KBUF.HW.W.0001.160110T1100Z-160111T0900Z/
JEFFERSON-LEWIS-
INCLUDING THE CITIES OF...WATERTOWN...LOWVILLE
1240 PM EST SAT JAN 9 2016

...HIGH WIND WARNING IN EFFECT FROM 6 AM SUNDAY TO 4 AM EST
MONDAY...

THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE IN BUFFALO HAS ISSUED A HIGH WIND
WARNING...WHICH IS IN EFFECT FROM 6 AM SUNDAY TO 4 AM EST MONDAY.
THIS UPGRADES THE HIGH WIND WATCH WHICH WAS PREVIOUSLY IN EFFECT.

* LOCATIONS...JEFFERSON AND LEWIS COUNTIES...ESPECIALLY ON NORTH
  AND NORTHWEST FACING SLOPES OF THE TUG HILL AND IN THE BLACK AND
  SAINT LAWRENCE RIVER VALLEYS.

* TIMING...FROM LATE TONIGHT THROUGH LATE SUNDAY NIGHT.

* WINDS...SOUTHEAST 35 TO 45 MPH WITH GUSTS UP TO 60 MPH LATE
  TONIGHT THROUGH EARLY AFTERNOON SUNDAY. SOUTHWEST 25 TO 35 MPH
  WITH GUSTS TO 55 MPH LATE SUNDAY AFTERNOON AND NIGHT.

* IMPACTS...WINDS OF THIS MAGNITUDE WILL RESULT IN SOME MINOR
  PROPERTY DAMAGE AND SCATTERED POWER OUTAGES. SOME TREE LIMBS AND
  TREES WILL LIKELY BE BLOWN DOWN. TRAVEL IN HIGH PROFILE VEHICLES
  WILL BE DIFFICULT AT TIMES.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

A HIGH WIND WARNING IS ISSUED WHEN SUSTAINED WINDS OF 40 MPH ARE
EXPECTED FOR AT LEAST AN HOUR...WITH GUSTS OF 58 MPH OR GREATER
AT ANY TIME. DAMAGE TO TREES...POWER LINES...AND PROPERTY ARE
POSSIBLE WITH WIND OF THIS MAGNITUDE. IF YOU HAVE A HIGH PROFILE
VEHICLES BE EXTRA CAREFUL UNTIL THE WIND SUBSIDES. STAY TUNED TO
WEATHER RADIO OR OTHER RADIO AND TV STATIONS FOR FURTHER DETAILS
OR UPDATES.

&&

$$

NYZ001>003-010>012-100145-
/O.NEW.KBUF.WI.Y.0002.160110T1900Z-160111T0900Z/
NIAGARA-ORLEANS-MONROE-NORTHERN ERIE-GENESEE-WYOMING-
INCLUDING THE CITIES OF...NIAGARA FALLS...MEDINA...ROCHESTER...
BUFFALO...BATAVIA...WARSAW
1240 PM EST SAT JAN 9 2016

...WIND ADVISORY IN EFFECT FROM 2 PM SUNDAY TO 4 AM EST MONDAY...

THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE IN BUFFALO HAS ISSUED A WIND
ADVISORY...WHICH IS IN EFFECT FROM 2 PM SUNDAY TO 4 AM EST
MONDAY.

* LOCATIONS...MOST OF THE NIAGARA FRONTIER AND THE GREATER
  ROCHESTER AREA.

* TIMING...FROM EARLY SUNDAY AFTERNOON THROUGH LATE SUNDAY NIGHT.

* WINDS...WEST 25 TO 35 MPH WITH GUSTS UP TO 55 MPH.

* IMPACTS...WINDS OF THIS MAGNITUDE MAY RESULT IN A FEW TREE LIMBS
  BEING BLOWN DOWN ALONG WITH ISOLATED POWER OUTAGES. TRAVEL IN
  HIGH PROFILE VEHICLES WILL BE DIFFICULT AT TIMES.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

A WIND ADVISORY IS ISSUED WHEN SUSTAINED WINDS ARE FORECAST TO BE
31 TO 39 MPH OR GUSTS WILL RANGE BETWEEN 46 AND 57 MPH. WINDS OF
THESE MAGNITUDES MAY CAUSE MINOR PROPERTY DAMAGE WITHOUT EXTRA
PRECAUTIONS. MOTORISTS IN HIGH PROFILE VEHICLES SHOULD USE
CAUTION UNTIL THE WINDS SUBSIDE. STAY TUNED TO NOAA WEATHER RADIO
AND OTHER RADIO AND TV STATIONS FOR FURTHER DETAILS OR UPDATES.

&&

$$

NYZ004>006-013-014-020-021-100145-
/O.NEW.KBUF.WI.Y.0002.160110T2100Z-160111T0900Z/
WAYNE-NORTHERN CAYUGA-OSWEGO-LIVINGSTON-ONTARIO-CATTARAUGUS-
ALLEGANY-
INCLUDING THE CITIES OF...NEWARK...FAIR HAVEN...OSWEGO...
GENESEO...CANANDAIGUA...OLEAN...WELLSVILLE
1240 PM EST SAT JAN 9 2016

...WIND ADVISORY IN EFFECT FROM 4 PM SUNDAY TO 4 AM EST MONDAY...

THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE IN BUFFALO HAS ISSUED A WIND
ADVISORY...WHICH IS IN EFFECT FROM 4 PM SUNDAY TO 4 AM EST
MONDAY.

* LOCATIONS...PORTIONS OF THE WESTERN SOUTHERN TIER...WESTERN
  FINGER LAKES...AND COUNTIES ALONG THE SOUTHEAST SHORE OF LAKE
  ONTARIO.

* TIMING...FROM LATE SUNDAY AFTERNOON THROUGH LATE SUNDAY NIGHT.

* WINDS...WEST 25 TO 35 MPH WITH GUSTS UP TO 50 MPH.

* IMPACTS...WINDS OF THIS MAGNITUDE MAY RESULT IN A FEW TREE LIMBS
  BEING BLOWN DOWN ALONG WITH ISOLATED POWER OUTAGES. TRAVEL IN
  HIGH PROFILE VEHICLES WILL BE DIFFICULT AT TIMES.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

A WIND ADVISORY IS ISSUED WHEN SUSTAINED WINDS ARE FORECAST TO BE
31 TO 39 MPH OR GUSTS WILL RANGE BETWEEN 46 AND 57 MPH. WINDS OF
THESE MAGNITUDES MAY CAUSE MINOR PROPERTY DAMAGE WITHOUT EXTRA
PRECAUTIONS. MOTORISTS IN HIGH PROFILE VEHICLES SHOULD USE
CAUTION UNTIL THE WINDS SUBSIDE. STAY TUNED TO NOAA WEATHER RADIO
AND OTHER RADIO AND TV STATIONS FOR FURTHER DETAILS OR UPDATES.

&&

$$

NYZ019-085-100145-
/O.EXT.KBUF.WI.Y.0001.160110T0300Z-160111T0900Z/
CHAUTAUQUA-SOUTHERN ERIE-
INCLUDING THE CITIES OF...JAMESTOWN...ORCHARD PARK...SPRINGVILLE
1240 PM EST SAT JAN 9 2016

...WIND ADVISORY NOW IN EFFECT FROM 10 PM THIS EVENING TO 4 AM
EST MONDAY...

* LOCATIONS...CHAUTAUQUA AND SOUTHERN ERIE COUNTIES. THE STRONGEST
  WINDS WILL BE IN DOWNSLOPE REGIONS NEAR THE LAKESHORE TONIGHT
  AND SUNDAY MORNING...THEN BECOMING MORE WIDESPREAD SUNDAY
  AFTERNOON AND NIGHT.

* TIMING...FROM LATE THIS EVENING THROUGH LATE SUNDAY NIGHT.

* WINDS...SOUTHEAST 25 TO 35 MPH WITH GUSTS UP TO 50 MPH TONIGHT
  AND EARLY SUNDAY. SOUTHWEST 25 TO 35 WITH GUSTS UP TO 55 MPH
  SUNDAY AFTERNOON AND NIGHT.

* IMPACTS...WINDS OF THIS MAGNITUDE MAY RESULT IN A FEW TREE LIMBS
  BEING BLOWN DOWN ALONG WITH ISOLATED POWER OUTAGES. TRAVEL IN
  HIGH PROFILE VEHICLES WILL BE DIFFICULT AT TIMES...INCLUDING THE
  NEW YORK STATE THRUWAY WHERE SOUTHEAST WINDS TONIGHT AND EARLY
  SUNDAY WILL BE BLOWING DIRECTLY ACROSS THE TRAVEL LANES.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

A WIND ADVISORY IS ISSUED WHEN SUSTAINED WINDS ARE FORECAST TO BE
31 TO 39 MPH OR GUSTS WILL RANGE BETWEEN 46 AND 57 MPH. WINDS OF
THESE MAGNITUDES MAY CAUSE MINOR PROPERTY DAMAGE WITHOUT EXTRA
PRECAUTIONS. MOTORISTS IN HIGH PROFILE VEHICLES SHOULD USE
CAUTION UNTIL THE WINDS SUBSIDE. STAY TUNED TO NOAA WEATHER RADIO
AND OTHER RADIO AND TV STATIONS FOR FURTHER DETAILS OR UPDATES.

&&

$$

HITCHCOCK

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BUFFALO NY
1239 PM EST FRI JAN 8 2016

.SYNOPSIS...
A SOMEWHAT DISORGANIZED STORM SYSTEM OVER THE NATIONS MID SECTION
WILL MOVE FROM THE PLAINS TO THE UPPER GREAT LAKES TONIGHT. THIS
SPREAD A PERIOD OF RAIN ACROSS THE REGION LATE TODAY AND TONIGHT.
WHILE SOME RAIN SHOWERS CAN STILL BE EXPECTED ON SATURDAY...OUR
ATTENTION WILL TURN TO A MAJOR PATTERN CHANGE THAT WILL TAKE PLACE
FOR THE UPCOMING WEEK...LEADING TO MUCH COLDER WEATHER WITH THE
LIKELIHOOD FOR SIGNIFICANT LAKE SNOWS.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
LOW PRESSURE WILL EASE ACROSS THE MID-MISSISSIPPI VALLEY THIS
AFTERNOON WITH AN UPPER LEVEL TROUGH MOVING TOWARD THE GREAT LAKES.
WARM ADVECTION AHEAD OF THIS SYSTEM WILL LEAD TO INCREASING AND
LOWERING CLOUD COVER OVER OUR FORECAST AREA DURING THE COURSE OF THE
AFTERNOON AND EVENING...WITH RAIN EVENTUALLY BREAKING OUT FROM WEST
TO EAST. HAVE DELAYED THE ONSET OF THE PCPN BY A FEW HOURS FROM
CONTINUITY THOUGH...AS THE 12Z KBUF SOUNDING SHOWS EXTREMELY DRY AIR
BELOW H7. TEMPERATURES THIS AFTERNOON WILL BE 10 TO 15 DEGREES ABOVE
NORMAL WITH A CONTINUED SOUTHWEST FLOW ALOFT. HIGHS WILL RANGE FROM
THE MID 40S ACROSS WESTERN NEW YORK TO AROUND 40 EAST OF LAKE
ONTARIO.

AN ILL-DEFINED WARM FRONTAL BOUNDARY WILL THEN PUSH NORTHEASTWARD
ACROSS WESTERN AND NORTH CENTRAL NEW YORK TONIGHT. ASSOCIATED BROAD
WARM AIR ADVECTION AND SYNOPTIC-SCALE LIFT WILL GENERATE LIGHT
PRECIPITATION ACROSS THE AREA...WITH THE ATMOSPHERIC COLUMN WARM
ENOUGH TO SUPPORT THE BULK OF THIS FALLING IN THE FORM OF JUST PLAIN
RAIN. THE EXCEPTION TO THIS WILL BE ACROSS INTERIOR PORTIONS OF THE
NORTH COUNTRY WHERE LINGERING LOW LEVEL COLD AIR MAY ALLOW FOR SOME
FREEZING RAIN FOR A FEW HOURS...BEFORE SLOW BUT STEADY WARM AIR
ADVECTION FORCES A CHANGEOVER TO ALL RAIN LATE. WINTER WEATHER
ADVISORY ISSUED TO COVER THE POTENTIAL.

&&

.SHORT TERM /SATURDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
WARM FRONT MOVES NORTH INTO QUEBEC PROVINCE ON SATURDAY. SOUTHERLY
DOWNSLOPING WIND AND LOSS OF LIFT ALONG FRONTAL SURFACE WILL REDUCE
POPS TO LOW CHANCE CATEGORY DURING THE DAY FOR MOST OF THE REGION
WITH THE NORTH COUNTRY RETAINING LOW LIKELY POPS INTO THE EARLY
EVENING...THEN POPS FALLING TO CHANCE THERE AS WELL INTO SATURDAY
NIGHT.

ON SATURDAY NIGHT AND SUNDAY...THE WEATHER WILL QUICKLY DETERIORATE
AGAIN AS A SECOND AND CONSIDERABLY MORE POTENT MID LEVEL TROUGH
QUICKLY TRACKS NORTHEASTWARD FROM THE OHIO VALLEY INTO SOUTHERN
ONTARIO. THE RAPIDLY DEEPENING SURFACE LOW WILL MOVE FROM THE OHIO
VALLEY TO WESTERN NEW YORK BETWEEN SATURDAY NIGHT AND MIDDAY SUNDAY.
WITH STRONG WARM ADVECTION AND AN AMPLE SUPPLY OF DEEP LAYER
MOISTURE EXPECT WIDESPREAD RAIN...MODERATE AT TIMES... WITH QPF
RANGING FROM ABOUT A HALF INCH OVER FAR WESTERN NY AND THE NIAGARA
FRONTIER TO AROUND THREE QUARTERS OF AN INCH ACROSS THE SOUTHERN
TIER.

AS THE LOW LIFTS INTO SOUTHERN ONTARIO SUNDAY AFTERNOON AND EARLY
SUNDAY EVENING...IT WILL SWEEP ITS TRAILING COLD FRONT EASTWARD
ACROSS OUR REGION. WHILE THIS FEATURE WILL BRING AN END TO THE BULK
OF THE RAIN...A SECONDARY AREA OF TRAILING WRAPAROUND MOISTURE WILL
PROBABLY PRODUCE SOME ADDITIONAL LIGHTER SHOWERS DURING THE REMAINDER
OF SUNDAY...WITH STRENGTHENING COLD AIR ADVECTION IN THE WAKE OF THE
LOW ALLOWING THE RAIN TO MIX WITH SOME WET SNOW ACROSS FAR WESTERN
NEW YORK LATER IN THE DAY.

&&

.LONG TERM /SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY/...
AS HAS BEEN HIGHLIGHTED IN THIS SPACE FOR DAYS...NEXT WEEK WILL
FEATURE A MAJOR PATTERN CHANGE ACROSS NORTH AMERICA...WITH AN
AMPLIFYING WEST COAST RIDGE FORCING DOWNSTREAM DEVELOPMENT OF
A MASSIVE UPPER LEVEL TROUGH ACROSS THE CENTRAL AND EASTERN
PORTIONS OF THE CONTINENT...THE CORE OF WHICH WILL EVENTUALLY
BECOME CENTERED NEAR HUDSON BAY. THIS EVOLUTION IN THE LARGE-
SCALE PATTERN WILL DIRECT REPEATED SHOTS OF COLD CANADIAN AIR
ACROSS OUR REGION WHICH WILL RESULT IN TEMPERATURES FALLING TO
BELOW NORMAL LEVELS...AND MORE IMPORTANTLY A GREATLY HEIGHTENED
POTENTIAL FOR SIGNIFICANT LAKE EFFECT SNOW DOWNWIND OF LAKES
ERIE AND ONTARIO.

AS IS USUALLY THE CASE IN SUCH A REGIME...NUMEROUS SHORTWAVES
ROTATING THROUGH THE PARENT SYNOPTIC-SCALE TROUGH WILL CROSS
THE GREAT LAKES REGION ALONG WITH THEIR ATTENDANT CLIPPER SYSTEMS.
WHILE THESE SYSTEMS WILL PRODUCE JUST SOME LIMITED LIGHT SNOW
OF THEIR OWN FROM TIME TO TIME...THESE WILL GREATLY IMPACT BOTH
THE STRENGTH AND LOCATION OF THE LAKE EFFECT ACTIVITY BY DELIVERING
FRESH SHOTS OF COLD AIR...ENHANCING BACKGROUND MOISTURE AND LIFT...
AND DRIVING FLUCTUATIONS IN THE LOW LEVEL FLOW THAT WILL RESULT IN
THE LAKE SNOWS MEANDERING NORTH AND SOUTH ACROSS BOTH FAR WESTERN
AND NORTH CENTRAL NEW YORK. AS A RESULT...BOTH OF THESE REGIONS
CAN EXPECT MULTIPLE BOUTS OF ACCUMULATING SNOWFALL...SOME OF WHICH
COULD BE SIGNIFICANT/HIGH IMPACT IN NATURE.

DELVING A LITTLE MORE CLOSELY INTO THE FORECAST DETAILS...COLD
AIR WILL RAPIDLY DEEPEN ACROSS THE AREA SUNDAY NIGHT IN THE WAKE
OF THE SUNDAY/S STRONG SYSTEM...WITH ANY LINGERING SYNOPTICALLY-
DRIVEN MIXED LIGHT RAIN AND WET SNOW SHOWERS CONSEQUENTLY CHANGING
OVER TO ALL SNOW WHILE TAPERING OFF. AT THE SAME TIME THE DEEPENING
COLD AIR WILL DRIVE THE DEVELOPMENT OF A LAKE RESPONSE FIRST OFF
LAKE ERIE AND THEN LAKE ONTARIO ON A GENERAL WESTERLY TO WEST-
SOUTHWESTERLY LOW LEVEL FLOW...WITH THIS THEN CONTINUING RIGHT
THROUGH MONDAY. 12Z BUFKIT DATA STILL SUGGESTS THAT LAKE EQLS
WILL RISE TO BETWEEN 10-12 KFT DURING THIS PERIOD WHICH IS PLENTY
ENOUGH FOR A HEALTHY LAKE RESPONSE...THOUGH A DRIER THAN IDEAL
AIRMASS BELOW THIS LEVEL REMAINS AS A POTENTIAL NEGATIVE INFLUENCE.

MONDAY NIGHT AND TUESDAY THE FIRST CLIPPER SYSTEM LOOKS TO RIPPLE
ACROSS THE GREAT LAKES ALONG WITH SOME LIGHT SNOW...WHILE FORCING
THE LAKE SNOWS TO MIGRATE NORTHWARD AND LIKELY WEAKEN THROUGH TUESDAY
MORNING AS THE LOW LEVEL FLOW BACKS TO SOUTH-SOUTHWESTERLY AND BECOMES
INCREASINGLY SHEARED...AND AS MILDER AIR IS DRAWN NORTHEASTWARD INTO
OUR REGION. WITH THE PASSAGE OF ITS TRAILING COLD FRONT TUESDAY
AFTERNOON/EVENING...RENEWED COLD AIR ADVECTION/VEERING WINDS AND A
RESULTANT INCREASE IN FETCH SHOULD THEN HELP TO RE-INVIGORATE THE LAKE
BANDS AND DRIVE THEM BACK SOUTHWARD LATER TUESDAY AFTERNOON AND NIGHT...
WITH THE LAKE EFFECT SNOWS THEN MORE OR LESS CONTINUING ON A GENERAL
WESTERLY FLOW WEDNESDAY. LOOKING FURTHER OUT IN TIME TOWARD THE END
OF THE PERIOD...IT LOOKS AS IF WE/LL PROBABLY REPEAT THIS WHOLE PROCESS
AGAIN WEDNESDAY NIGHT AND THURSDAY AS THE NEXT CLIPPER SYSTEM CROSSES
OUR REGION.

&&

.AVIATION /18Z FRIDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
HIGH PRESSURE OVER QUEBEC WILL KEEP FAIR DRY WEATHER IN PLACE
ACROSS WESTERN AND NORTH CENTRAL NEW YORK THROUGH THE BULK OF THE
AFTERNOON. A DISORGANIZED STORM SYSTEM OVER THE CENTRAL PLAINS
WILL THEN MOVE NORTHEAST...LEADING TO THICKENING AND LOWERING
CLOUDS AS THE AFTERNOON AND EVENING PROGRESSES. OVER THE FAR WESTERN
COUNTIES...CIGS WILL LOWER TO MVFR BY LATE AFTERNOON WHILE RAIN
SHOWERS WILL BECOME MORE COMMON.

A PERIOD OF RAIN CAN THEN BE EXPECTED TONIGHT ACROSS ALL OF THE
REGION...WITH CIGS LOWERING TO MVFR LEVELS ACROSS THE LAKE PLAINS
AND TO IFR/LIFR LEVELS ACROSS THE HIGHER TERRAIN OF THE SRN TIER
AND FINGER LAKES REGIONS.

MVFR TO IFR CIGS SHOULD REMAIN IN PLACE THROUGH AT LEAST THE FIRST
HALF OF SATURDAY BEFORE MARGINAL IMPROVEMENT TAKE PLACE IN THE
AFTERNOON.

OUTLOOK...
SATURDAY NIGHT...MVFR TO IFR IN RAIN SHOWERS.
SUNDAY...RAIN MIXING WITH AND CHANGING TO SNOW BY SUNDAY NIGHT
WITH IFR DEVELOPING.
MONDAY...IFR IN LAKE EFFECT SNOW SHOWERS EAST OF THE LAKES.
MONDAY NIGHT AND TUESDAY...IFR IN LAKE EFFECT SNOW SHOWERS NORTHEAST
OF THE LAKES...OTHERWISE VFR WITH SCATTERED FLURRIES AND SNOW SHOWERS.
WEDNESDAY...MAINLY VFR...BUT MVFR TO IFR IN LAKE SNOWS EAST OF BOTH
LAKES.

&&

.MARINE...
WINDS WILL FRESHEN AHEAD OF A STORM SYSTEM LATE TODAY AND TONIGHT.
THE ROUGHEST WATER SHOULD REMAIN NORTH OF THE INTERNATIONAL BORDER
ALTHOUGH WAVES MAY INCREASE ABOVE SMALL CRAFT THRESHOLDS NEAR THE
SAINT LAWRENCE RIVER LATE TONIGHT AND SATURDAY.

A RAPIDLY DEEPENING LOW MOVING ACROSS SOUTHERN ONTARIO PROVINCE
SUNDAY MAY BRING GALE FORCE WINDS TO LAKE ERIE AND ONTARIO LATER
SUNDAY AND SUNDAY NIGHT. NEXT WEEK A SERIES OF FAST MOVING CLIPPERS
WILL BRING PERIODS OF ENHANCED WIND AND WAVES WITH LAKE EFFECT SNOW
BANDS OCCURRING IN BETWEEN.

&&

.BUF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NY...WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY FROM MIDNIGHT TONIGHT TO 6 AM EST
     SATURDAY FOR NYZ008.
MARINE...NONE.

&&

SYNOPSIS...RSH/TMA
NEAR TERM...RSH/TMA
SHORT TERM...WCH
LONG TERM...JJR
AVIATION...RSH
MARINE...TMA

HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BUFFALO NY
746 AM EST FRI JAN 8 2016

NYZ001-002-010>012-019-020-085-091300-
NIAGARA-ORLEANS-NORTHERN ERIE-GENESEE-WYOMING-CHAUTAUQUA-CATTARAUGUS-
SOUTHERN ERIE-
746 AM EST FRI JAN 8 2016

THIS HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK IS FOR PORTIONS OF WESTERN NEW YORK.

.DAY ONE...TODAY AND TONIGHT.

THE PROBABILITY FOR WIDESPREAD HAZARDOUS WEATHER IS LOW.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...SATURDAY THROUGH THURSDAY.

A DEEPENING AREA OF LOW PRESSURE AND STRONG COLD FRONT CROSSING
THE GREAT LAKES MAY PRODUCE STRONG WIND GUSTS UP TO 50 MPH SUNDAY
AFTERNOON AND NIGHT. STRONGEST WINDS ARE EXPECTED ACROSS WESTERN
NEW YORK SUNDAY AFTERNOON AND SPREAD TO THE LAKE ONTARIO BASIN AND
SAINT LAWRENCE VALLEY SUNDAY EVENING AND NIGHT.

MUCH COLDER AIR WILL ARRIVE SUNDAY NIGHT AND REMAIN THROUGH ALL OF
NEXT WEEK...POSSIBLY SETTING THE STAGE FOR SIGNIFICANT AND LONG
LASTING LAKE EFFECT SNOW. THE FIRST ROUND OF LAKE EFFECT SNOW WILL
DEVELOP SUNDAY NIGHT AND MONDAY EAST OF LAKE ERIE. FROM TUESDAY
THROUGH THE REST OF THE WEEK A SERIES OF SYSTEMS WILL CROSS THE
REGION AND RESULT IN BANDS OF LAKE EFFECT SNOW OSCILLATING ACROSS
MUCH OF WESTERN NEW YORK AS WIND DIRECTIONS FREQUENTLY CHANGE.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

SPOTTER ACTIVATION IS NOT EXPECTED AT THIS TIME.

THIS PRODUCT...ALONG WITH OTHER WATCHES...WARNINGS...ADVISORIES...
AND STATEMENTS ISSUED BY THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE OFFICE IN
BUFFALO CAN BE FOUND ON THE INTERNET AT HTTP://WWW.WEATHER.GOV/BUF

NYZ003>005-013-014-021-091300-
MONROE-WAYNE-NORTHERN CAYUGA-LIVINGSTON-ONTARIO-ALLEGANY-
746 AM EST FRI JAN 8 2016

THIS HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK IS FOR PORTIONS OF CENTRAL NEW YORK
AND WESTERN NEW YORK.

.DAY ONE...TODAY AND TONIGHT.

THE PROBABILITY FOR WIDESPREAD HAZARDOUS WEATHER IS LOW.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...SATURDAY THROUGH THURSDAY.

A DEEPENING AREA OF LOW PRESSURE AND STRONG COLD FRONT CROSSING
THE GREAT LAKES MAY PRODUCE STRONG WIND GUSTS UP TO 50 MPH
SUNDAY AFTERNOON AND NIGHT. STRONGEST WINDS ARE EXPECTED ACROSS
WESTERN NEW YORK SUNDAY AFTERNOON AND SPREAD TO THE LAKE ONTARIO
BASIN AND SAINT LAWRENCE VALLEY SUNDAY EVENING AND NIGHT.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

SPOTTER ACTIVATION IS NOT EXPECTED AT THIS TIME.

THIS PRODUCT...ALONG WITH OTHER WATCHES...WARNINGS...ADVISORIES...
AND STATEMENTS ISSUED BY THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE OFFICE IN
BUFFALO CAN BE FOUND ON THE INTERNET AT HTTP://WWW.WEATHER.GOV/BUF

NYZ006-007-091300-
OSWEGO-JEFFERSON-
746 AM EST FRI JAN 8 2016

THIS HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK IS FOR PORTIONS OF CENTRAL NEW YORK.

.DAY ONE...TODAY AND TONIGHT.

THE PROBABILITY FOR WIDESPREAD HAZARDOUS WEATHER IS LOW.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...SATURDAY THROUGH THURSDAY.

A BRIEF PERIOD OF LIGHT FREEZING RAIN IS POSSIBLE FRIDAY NIGHT AND
EARLY SATURDAY MORNING.

A DEEPENING AREA OF LOW PRESSURE AND STRONG COLD FRONT CROSSING
THE GREAT LAKES MAY PRODUCE STRONG WIND GUSTS UP TO 50 MPH SUNDAY
AFTERNOON AND NIGHT. STRONGEST WINDS ARE EXPECTED ACROSS WESTERN
NEW YORK SUNDAY AFTERNOON AND SPREAD TO THE LAKE ONTARIO BASIN AND
SAINT LAWRENCE VALLEY SUNDAY EVENING AND NIGHT.

MUCH COLDER AIR WILL ARRIVE SUNDAY NIGHT AND REMAIN THROUGH ALL OF
NEXT WEEK...POSSIBLY SETTING THE STAGE FOR SIGNIFICANT AND LONG
LASTING LAKE EFFECT SNOW. THE FIRST ROUND OF LAKE EFFECT SNOW WILL
DEVELOP SUNDAY NIGHT AND MONDAY EAST OF LAKE ONTARIO. FROM
TUESDAY THROUGH THE REST OF THE WEEK A SERIES OF SYSTEMS WILL
CROSS THE REGION AND RESULT IN BANDS OF LAKE EFFECT SNOW
OSCILLATING ACROSS MUCH OF THE EASTERN LAKE ONTARIO REGION AS
WIND DIRECTIONS FREQUENTLY CHANGE.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

SPOTTER ACTIVATION IS NOT EXPECTED AT THIS TIME.

THIS PRODUCT...ALONG WITH OTHER WATCHES...WARNINGS...ADVISORIES...
AND STATEMENTS ISSUED BY THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE OFFICE IN
BUFFALO CAN BE FOUND ON THE INTERNET AT HTTP://WWW.WEATHER.GOV/BUF

NYZ008-091300-
LEWIS-
746 AM EST FRI JAN 8 2016

...WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY IN EFFECT FROM MIDNIGHT TONIGHT TO 6 AM
EST SATURDAY...

THIS HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK IS FOR PORTIONS OF CENTRAL NEW YORK.

.DAY ONE...TODAY AND TONIGHT.

PLEASE LISTEN TO NOAA WEATHER RADIO OR GO TO WEATHER.GOV ON THE
INTERNET FOR MORE INFORMATION ABOUT THE FOLLOWING HAZARDS.

   WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...SATURDAY THROUGH THURSDAY.

A BRIEF PERIOD OF LIGHT FREEZING RAIN IS POSSIBLE FRIDAY NIGHT AND
EARLY SATURDAY MORNING.

A DEEPENING AREA OF LOW PRESSURE AND STRONG COLD FRONT CROSSING
THE GREAT LAKES MAY PRODUCE STRONG WIND GUSTS UP TO 50 MPH SUNDAY
AFTERNOON AND NIGHT. STRONGEST WINDS ARE EXPECTED ACROSS WESTERN
NEW YORK SUNDAY AFTERNOON AND SPREAD TO THE LAKE ONTARIO BASIN AND
SAINT LAWRENCE VALLEY SUNDAY EVENING AND NIGHT.

MUCH COLDER AIR WILL ARRIVE SUNDAY NIGHT AND REMAIN THROUGH ALL OF
NEXT WEEK...POSSIBLY SETTING THE STAGE FOR SIGNIFICANT AND LONG
LASTING LAKE EFFECT SNOW. THE FIRST ROUND OF LAKE EFFECT SNOW WILL
DEVELOP SUNDAY NIGHT AND MONDAY EAST OF LAKE ONTARIO. FROM
TUESDAY THROUGH THE REST OF THE WEEK A SERIES OF SYSTEMS WILL
CROSS THE REGION AND RESULT IN BANDS OF LAKE EFFECT SNOW
OSCILLATING ACROSS MUCH OF THE EASTERN LAKE ONTARIO REGION AS
WIND DIRECTIONS FREQUENTLY CHANGE.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

SPOTTER ACTIVATION IS NOT EXPECTED AT THIS TIME.

THIS PRODUCT...ALONG WITH OTHER WATCHES...WARNINGS...ADVISORIES...
AND STATEMENTS ISSUED BY THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE OFFICE IN
BUFFALO CAN BE FOUND ON THE INTERNET AT HTTP://WWW.WEATHER.GOV/BUF

LEZ020-040-041-LOZ030-042>045-062>065-SLZ022-024-091300-
UPPER NIAGARA RIVER AND BUFFALO HARBOR-
LAKE ERIE NEARSHORE WATERS FROM RIPLEY TO DUNKIRK-
LAKE ERIE NEARSHORE WATERS FROM DUNKIRK TO BUFFALO-
LOWER NIAGARA RIVER-
LAKE ONTARIO NEARSHORE WATERS FROM THE NIAGARA RIVER TO HAMLIN BEACH-
LAKE ONTARIO NEARSHORE WATERS FROM HAMLIN BEACH TO SODUS BAY-
LAKE ONTARIO NEARSHORE WATERS FROM SODUS BAY TO MEXICO BAY-
LAKE ONTARIO NEARSHORE WATERS FROM MEXICO BAY TO THE SAINT LAWRENCE
RIVER-
LAKE ONTARIO OPEN WATERS FROM THE NIAGARA RIVER TO HAMLIN BEACH-
LAKE ONTARIO OPEN WATERS FROM HAMLIN BEACH TO SODUS BAY-
LAKE ONTARIO OPEN WATERS FROM SODUS BAY TO MEXICO BAY-
LAKE ONTARIO OPEN WATERS FROM MEXICO BAY TO THE SAINT LAWRENCE RIVER-
SAINT LAWRENCE RIVER FROM CAPE VINCENT TO OGDENSBURG-
SAINT LAWRENCE RIVER FROM OGDENSBURG TO SAINT REGIS-
746 AM EST FRI JAN 8 2016

THIS HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK IS FOR THE NEW YORK WATERS OF LAKE
ERIE...LAKE ONTARIO...AND THE SAINT LAWRENCE RIVER.

.DAY ONE...TODAY AND TONIGHT.

THE PROBABILITY FOR WIDESPREAD HAZARDOUS WEATHER IS LOW.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...SATURDAY THROUGH THURSDAY.

GALE FORCE WINDS ARE POSSIBLE SUNDAY AFTERNOON AND NIGHT ACROSS
LAKES ERIE AND ONTARIO AS A STRENGTHENING AREA OF LOW PRESSURE
PASSES THROUGH THE CENTRAL GREAT LAKES AND SOUTHERN ONTARIO.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

SPOTTER ACTIVATION IS NOT EXPECTED AT THIS TIME.

THIS PRODUCT...ALONG WITH OTHER WATCHES...WARNINGS...ADVISORIES...
AND STATEMENTS ISSUED BY THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE OFFICE IN
BUFFALO CAN BE FOUND ON THE INTERNET AT HTTP://WWW.WEATHER.GOV/BUF