Gale Watch 14, NWS Buffalo, NY

324 
WHUS71 KBUF 131549
MWWBUF

URGENT - MARINE WEATHER MESSAGE
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BUFFALO NY
1049 AM EST TUE DEC 13 2016

LEZ040-041-140000-
/O.CON.KBUF.SC.Y.0106.000000T0000Z-161214T2100Z/
/O.UPG.KBUF.GL.A.0014.161214T2100Z-161216T0100Z/
/O.NEW.KBUF.GL.W.0019.161214T2100Z-161216T0100Z/
LAKE ERIE NEARSHORE WATERS FROM RIPLEY TO DUNKIRK-
LAKE ERIE NEARSHORE WATERS FROM DUNKIRK TO BUFFALO-
1049 AM EST TUE DEC 13 2016

...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY REMAINS IN EFFECT UNTIL 4 PM EST
WEDNESDAY...
...GALE WARNING IN EFFECT FROM 4 PM WEDNESDAY TO 8 PM EST
THURSDAY...

THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE IN BUFFALO HAS ISSUED A GALE
WARNING...WHICH IS IN EFFECT FROM 4 PM WEDNESDAY TO 8 PM EST
THURSDAY. THE GALE WATCH IS NO LONGER IN EFFECT.

* WINDS...WEST TO 35 KNOTS.

* WAVES...12 TO 16 FEET.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

A GALE WARNING MEANS WINDS OF 34 TO 47 KNOTS ARE IMMINENT OR
OCCURING. OPERATING A VESSEL IN GALE CONDITIONS REQUIRES
EXPERIENCE AND PROPERLY EQUIPPED VESSELS. IT IS HIGHLY
RECOMMENDED THAT MARINERS WITHOUT THE PROPER EXPERIENCE SEEK SAFE
HARBOR PRIOR TO THE ONSET OF GALE CONDITIONS.

A SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY MEANS THAT WIND SPEEDS OF 18 TO 33 KNOTS
AND/OR WAVES AVERAGING 4 FEET OR MORE ARE EXPECTED TO PRODUCE
HAZARDOUS WAVE CONDITIONS TO SMALL CRAFT. INEXPERIENCED
MARINERS...ESPECIALLY THOSE OPERATING SMALLER VESSELS...SHOULD
AVOID NAVIGATING IN THESE CONDITIONS.

&&

$$

LOZ043-140000-
/O.CON.KBUF.SC.Y.0106.000000T0000Z-161215T0000Z/
/O.UPG.KBUF.GL.A.0014.161215T0000Z-161216T0300Z/
/O.NEW.KBUF.GL.W.0019.161215T0000Z-161216T0300Z/
LAKE ONTARIO NEARSHORE WATERS FROM HAMLIN BEACH TO SODUS BAY-
1049 AM EST TUE DEC 13 2016

...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY REMAINS IN EFFECT UNTIL 7 PM EST
WEDNESDAY...
...GALE WARNING IN EFFECT FROM 7 PM WEDNESDAY TO 10 PM EST
THURSDAY...

THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE IN BUFFALO HAS ISSUED A GALE
WARNING...WHICH IS IN EFFECT FROM 7 PM WEDNESDAY TO 10 PM EST
THURSDAY. THE GALE WATCH IS NO LONGER IN EFFECT.

* WINDS...WEST TO 35 KNOTS.

* WAVES...14 TO 18 FEET.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

A GALE WARNING MEANS WINDS OF 34 TO 47 KNOTS ARE IMMINENT OR
OCCURING. OPERATING A VESSEL IN GALE CONDITIONS REQUIRES
EXPERIENCE AND PROPERLY EQUIPPED VESSELS. IT IS HIGHLY
RECOMMENDED THAT MARINERS WITHOUT THE PROPER EXPERIENCE SEEK SAFE
HARBOR PRIOR TO THE ONSET OF GALE CONDITIONS.

A SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY MEANS THAT WIND SPEEDS OF 18 TO 33 KNOTS
AND/OR WAVES AVERAGING 4 FEET OR MORE ARE EXPECTED TO PRODUCE
HAZARDOUS WAVE CONDITIONS TO SMALL CRAFT. INEXPERIENCED
MARINERS...ESPECIALLY THOSE OPERATING SMALLER VESSELS...SHOULD
AVOID NAVIGATING IN THESE CONDITIONS.

&&

$$

LOZ042-140000-
/O.CON.KBUF.SC.Y.0106.000000T0000Z-161215T0000Z/
/O.UPG.KBUF.GL.A.0014.161215T0000Z-161216T0100Z/
/O.NEW.KBUF.GL.W.0019.161215T0000Z-161216T0100Z/
LAKE ONTARIO NEARSHORE WATERS FROM THE NIAGARA RIVER TO HAMLIN
BEACH-
1049 AM EST TUE DEC 13 2016

...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY REMAINS IN EFFECT UNTIL 7 PM EST
WEDNESDAY...
...GALE WARNING IN EFFECT FROM 7 PM WEDNESDAY TO 8 PM EST
THURSDAY...

THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE IN BUFFALO HAS ISSUED A GALE
WARNING...WHICH IS IN EFFECT FROM 7 PM WEDNESDAY TO 8 PM EST
THURSDAY. THE GALE WATCH IS NO LONGER IN EFFECT.

* WINDS...WEST TO 35 KNOTS.

* WAVES...12 TO 16 FEET.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

A GALE WARNING MEANS WINDS OF 34 TO 47 KNOTS ARE IMMINENT OR
OCCURING. OPERATING A VESSEL IN GALE CONDITIONS REQUIRES
EXPERIENCE AND PROPERLY EQUIPPED VESSELS. IT IS HIGHLY
RECOMMENDED THAT MARINERS WITHOUT THE PROPER EXPERIENCE SEEK SAFE
HARBOR PRIOR TO THE ONSET OF GALE CONDITIONS.

A SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY MEANS THAT WIND SPEEDS OF 18 TO 33 KNOTS
AND/OR WAVES AVERAGING 4 FEET OR MORE ARE EXPECTED TO PRODUCE
HAZARDOUS WAVE CONDITIONS TO SMALL CRAFT. INEXPERIENCED
MARINERS...ESPECIALLY THOSE OPERATING SMALLER VESSELS...SHOULD
AVOID NAVIGATING IN THESE CONDITIONS.

&&

$$

LOZ044-045-140000-
/O.CON.KBUF.SC.Y.0106.000000T0000Z-161215T0000Z/
/O.UPG.KBUF.GL.A.0014.161215T0000Z-161216T0300Z/
/O.NEW.KBUF.GL.W.0019.161215T0000Z-161216T0300Z/
LAKE ONTARIO NEARSHORE WATERS FROM SODUS BAY TO MEXICO BAY-
LAKE ONTARIO NEARSHORE WATERS FROM MEXICO BAY TO THE SAINT
LAWRENCE RIVER-
1049 AM EST TUE DEC 13 2016

...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY REMAINS IN EFFECT UNTIL 7 PM EST
WEDNESDAY...
...GALE WARNING IN EFFECT FROM 7 PM WEDNESDAY TO 10 PM EST
THURSDAY...

THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE IN BUFFALO HAS ISSUED A GALE
WARNING...WHICH IS IN EFFECT FROM 7 PM WEDNESDAY TO 10 PM EST
THURSDAY. THE GALE WATCH IS NO LONGER IN EFFECT.

* WINDS...WEST TO 35 KNOTS.

* WAVES...15 TO 19 FEET.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

A GALE WARNING MEANS WINDS OF 34 TO 47 KNOTS ARE IMMINENT OR
OCCURING. OPERATING A VESSEL IN GALE CONDITIONS REQUIRES
EXPERIENCE AND PROPERLY EQUIPPED VESSELS. IT IS HIGHLY
RECOMMENDED THAT MARINERS WITHOUT THE PROPER EXPERIENCE SEEK SAFE
HARBOR PRIOR TO THE ONSET OF GALE CONDITIONS.

A SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY MEANS THAT WIND SPEEDS OF 18 TO 33 KNOTS
AND/OR WAVES AVERAGING 4 FEET OR MORE ARE EXPECTED TO PRODUCE
HAZARDOUS WAVE CONDITIONS TO SMALL CRAFT. INEXPERIENCED
MARINERS...ESPECIALLY THOSE OPERATING SMALLER VESSELS...SHOULD
AVOID NAVIGATING IN THESE CONDITIONS.

&&

$$

LOZ062-140000-
/O.UPG.KBUF.GL.A.0014.161215T0000Z-161216T0100Z/
/O.NEW.KBUF.GL.W.0019.161215T0000Z-161216T0100Z/
LAKE ONTARIO OPEN WATERS FROM THE NIAGARA RIVER TO HAMLIN BEACH-
1049 AM EST TUE DEC 13 2016

...GALE WARNING IN EFFECT FROM 7 PM WEDNESDAY TO 8 PM EST
THURSDAY...

THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE IN BUFFALO HAS ISSUED A GALE
WARNING...WHICH IS IN EFFECT FROM 7 PM WEDNESDAY TO 8 PM EST
THURSDAY. THE GALE WATCH IS NO LONGER IN EFFECT.

* WINDS...WEST TO 40 KNOTS.

* WAVES...13 TO 17 FEET.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

A GALE WARNING MEANS WINDS OF 34 TO 47 KNOTS ARE IMMINENT OR
OCCURING. OPERATING A VESSEL IN GALE CONDITIONS REQUIRES
EXPERIENCE AND PROPERLY EQUIPPED VESSELS. IT IS HIGHLY
RECOMMENDED THAT MARINERS WITHOUT THE PROPER EXPERIENCE SEEK SAFE
HARBOR PRIOR TO THE ONSET OF GALE CONDITIONS.

&&

$$

LOZ063>065-140000-
/O.UPG.KBUF.GL.A.0014.161215T0000Z-161216T0300Z/
/O.NEW.KBUF.GL.W.0019.161215T0000Z-161216T0300Z/
LAKE ONTARIO OPEN WATERS FROM HAMLIN BEACH TO SODUS BAY-
LAKE ONTARIO OPEN WATERS FROM SODUS BAY TO MEXICO BAY-
LAKE ONTARIO OPEN WATERS FROM MEXICO BAY TO THE SAINT LAWRENCE
RIVER-
1049 AM EST TUE DEC 13 2016

...GALE WARNING IN EFFECT FROM 7 PM WEDNESDAY TO 10 PM EST
THURSDAY...

THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE IN BUFFALO HAS ISSUED A GALE
WARNING...WHICH IS IN EFFECT FROM 7 PM WEDNESDAY TO 10 PM EST
THURSDAY. THE GALE WATCH IS NO LONGER IN EFFECT.

* WINDS...WEST TO 40 KNOTS.

* WAVES...15 TO 19 FEET.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

A GALE WARNING MEANS WINDS OF 34 TO 47 KNOTS ARE IMMINENT OR
OCCURING. OPERATING A VESSEL IN GALE CONDITIONS REQUIRES
EXPERIENCE AND PROPERLY EQUIPPED VESSELS. IT IS HIGHLY
RECOMMENDED THAT MARINERS WITHOUT THE PROPER EXPERIENCE SEEK SAFE
HARBOR PRIOR TO THE ONSET OF GALE CONDITIONS.

&&

$$

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Buffalo NY
1257 AM EST Tue Dec 13 2016

.SYNOPSIS...
A few leftover snow showers east of the lakes will end overnight as
drier air moves into the region. Cooler air will filter into the
Great Lakes Tuesday...followed by a much sharper cool-down during
the latter half of the week as a deep upper-level trough settles
across the region...bringing the coldest air of the season so far.
The cold air will be accompanied by widespread lake-effect snow from
Wednesday into Thursday.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TODAY/...
Lake effect snow showers continue southeast of Lake Ontario this
early morning, with activity generally light and weakening as
inversion heights diminish.

It appears the lake effect precip will end prior to the inversion
becoming too low for ice nuclei in the cloud layer, reducing the
risk of any freezing drizzle. Outside of lake effect areas expect
partly to mostly cloudy skies overnight. Lows will drop back into
the mid 20s in most areas with lower 20s across the interior
Southern Tier and North Country.

On Tuesday...expect a quiet start to the day as a surface ridge
rapidly transits the region. By the afternoon, we will see a chance
of snow showers return as a surface trough moves into the
region...the vanguard ahead of the much deeper troughing that will
be arriving later this week. Moisture with this system is not
particularly deep, and the best synoptic scale lift appears to pass
through PA. Mesoscale model guidance does suggest some limited lake
response during the late afternoon and early evening as the mid
level trough crosses the lakes. This may develop an area of modest
lake effect snow near Buffalo off Lake Erie, before veering winds
carry the snow into the Southern Tier Tuesday evening. Expect a
similar trend off Lake Ontario with some lake effect snow developing
over Jefferson County, then dropping south to the Tug Hill.
Accumulations with this will be minor if it materializes, given the
marginal instability.

Temperature-wise, the slightly cooler airmass will remain in place
Tuesday, with highs in the upper 20s in the Southern Tier, with low
to mid-30s elsewhere.

&&

.SHORT TERM /TONIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY/...
This period will feature the coldest weather thus far in the young
winter season with the cold air supporting yet another bout of
significant lake snows east of both lakes. The lake snow should be
the most impactful east of Lake Ontario where there will be the
potential for multiple feet of accumulation. Lake effect snow
watches have been issued to cover this scenario for the Eastern Lake
Ontario region. After looking over the 18Z guidance and a brief
look at the 00Z NAM, lake effect snow watches have also been
issued east of Lake Erie. This includes the Buffalo Metro area for
the very start of the event Wednesday afternoon and evening.

As we open this period Tuesday evening...a cold front will be
pushing across the Finger Lakes Region. While the front will
generate some snow showers..accumulations will generally be
insignificant. In the wake of the front...H85 temps dropping off
into the minus teens c will prompt enough lake instability for some
lake snows east of both lakes. There is not expected to be very much
synoptic moisture...and with a cap under 8k ft...the response should
be minimal. Am expecting accumulations of around 2 inches near the
Chautauqua Ridge and up to 4 inches near and just north of the Tug
Hill by daybreak.

On Wednesday...a deep cyclonic flow will be found over all of the
Great Lakes as the much talked about polar vortex will push across
the northern reaches of Ontario. While the core of the associated
true arctic air will remain well to our north...H85 temps of -16c
will accompany a 240-250 flow over our region. That will direct
accumulating snow bands into the heart of the BUF and ART metro
areas. The lake snows should intensify during the course of the
afternoon...as the limiting cap is forecast to rise to 10-15k
ft...and by late in the day there will an increase in synoptic
moisture.

Latest mesoscale model guidance suggests the lake effect snow may
become heavy during the first part of this event as lake induced
instability rapidly rises, and convergence increases with the
approach of a synoptic scale trough. Heavy lake effect snow off
Lake Erie may impact the Buffalo Metro area during the Wednesday
evening commute before moving quickly south overnight as boundary
layer flow veers westerly. Given the short duration of the event,
it will likely end up being a borderline high end advisory low end
warning for Buffalo Metro as far as snow amounts go. That said
however, the timing and strong winds will likely produce
significant impact. Off Lake Ontario expect a similar scenario
with lake snows developing near Watertown during the late
afternoon and early evening before moving to the Tug Hill.

Otherwise...it will be brisk and cold with afternoon temperatures
topping out in the mid 20s. Gusty winds will interact with these
mercury to produce apparent temps in the single digits and teens.

As the anomalously deep mid level arctic gyre passes to our north
Wednesday night and Thursday...H85 temps will tumble to at least
-20c. This will establish extreme instability (lapse rates >8 deg
c/km through H6...or LICAPEs of 1500-2000 j/kg) over Lakes Erie and
Ontario while the cap will climb to nearly 20k ft. As is nearly
always the case for significant lake snows...it is the height of
this cap within a low sheared environment that is the most
important. Given an influx of synoptic moisture and the likelihood of
an upstream connection to Lakes Superior and Huron...the lake snows
in the vcnty of the Tug Hill will likely be quite significant with
snowfall rates of 2-4 inches per hour. These rates could be even
higher due to increased low level convergence just ahead of an
arctic cold front that will settle over that area late Thursday
afternoon. Snowfall amounts of more than two feet will be possible
for the Tug Hill area from later Wednesday into Thursday
evening...thus a lake effect snow watch is in effect for this area.

Besides the noteworthy lake effect...it will be cold Wednesday night
and Thursday. The mercury will settle into the single digits and
lower teens late Wednesday night...then only recover a few degrees
on Thursday in advance of an arctic front. Speaking of which...

Guidance has been fairly consistent with depicting the passage of an
arctic cold front over the forecast area late Thursday and Thursday
evening. As is almost always the case...there will be a burst of
moderate to heavy snow with the arctic fropa. Have cat pops in place
to cover this passage...aiming notably higher than the diluted pops
of the ensembles. For what its worth...the SREF seems to be the most
realistic looking of these.

In the wake of the arctic front...temperatures late Thursday night
will plunge below zero across a large portion of our area...
including sites east of Lake Ontario and across the southern tier.
Winds averaging 10-15 mph will combine with these mercury readings
to produce dangerously low wind chills of 15 to 20 below. Wind chill
headlines may be necessary.

Friday will be another very cold day as the heart of an arctic high
will pass just to our south. Temperatures will be similar to those
of the previous day (Thurs)...although with weaker winds in place...
wind chill values will not be as threatening. The bulk of the region
will be pcpn free...however there will be some weak nuisance lake
snow showers east of both lakes.

&&

.LONG TERM /FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY/...
As the extended portion of the forecast begins...our attention will
quickly turn back to the synoptic scale as a large storm system
ripples northeastward from the Central and Southern Plains Friday
night...then crosses our region between Saturday and Saturday night.
While the medium range models continue to exhibit a spread of
solutions with this system that range from a rather wavy frontal
boundary to a single low passing by to our northwest...all guidance
suggests that this system will be rather moisture-laden...and will
also at least advect a period of warmer air into our region during
the day on Saturday...when the lower levels of the atmosphere appear
likely to warm above freezing in many areas. Such a scenario would
result a high likelihood of precipitation for our entire region
during the Friday night-Saturday-Saturday night time frame...with
ongoing warm advection forcing snow Friday night to mix with or
even change over to plain rain during Saturday...before strong cold
air advection in the wake of the system's cold front drives a
transition back to all snow before the precip ends Saturday night/
Sunday morning.

Following the passage of this system...a much colder airmass (though
not quite as cold as the one expected for the end of the preceding
work week) will then pour across our area for Sunday and Sunday
night...with temperatures consequently falling back to below normal
levels. With a general westerly to northwesterly flow in place...the
colder air will also help to generate some lake effect snow showers
east and southeast of the lakes...though the rather dry nature of the
incoming airmass will probably keep these fairly limited/scattered in
nature. Whatever lake effect that does form will then lift northward
and tend to fall apart altogether on Monday as high pressure builds
across the region...winds back around to southwesterly...and warm
air advection sets up aloft.

&&

.AVIATION /06Z TUESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
For the 06Z TAFs a light band of lake effect snow showers continues
southeast of Lake Ontario, and though this activity is slowly moving
northward, it will likely fall apart before reaching the KART
airfield.

Otherwise temporary drying in the lower-mid levels will likely
prevent lake effect snow activity from forming, and it will not be
until later this afternoon that a return of synoptic moisture will
allow for some light bands of lake effect snow to form. This
activity will form near KIAG/KBUF off Lake Erie, and near KART off
Lake Ontario. Flight conditions will range from IFR to low end MVFR
within these bands...with better snowband structure forming just
south of both KBUF/KART. These bands of snow will then drop
southward tonight.

In addition to the lake effect snow, a light synoptic snow event
will cross from the Ohio Valley to near the PA/NYS line. This will
likely bring IFR flight conditions to KJHW, before the lake effect
snow band nears late evening. Lake parameters are not overly
impressive off Lake Erie as dry air will maintain either weak or no
lake effect snow east of Lake Erie. Meanwhile, a better moisture
profile should allow for a band of snow overnight east of Lake
Ontario, with the band just south of KART through the night.

Southwest winds today will occasionally gust 25 to 30 knots across
KBUF and KIAG today.

Outlook...

Wednesday...VFR/MVFR early...then IFR/LIFR in lake effect snow.
Thursday...IFR/LIFR with snow and blowing snow.
Friday...VFR/MVFR with a chance of snow showers.
Saturday...MVFR/IFR. Snow likely. LLWS possible Saturday night.

&&

.MARINE...
Westerly winds have freshened this evening as the pressure gradient
has tightened between a departing low-pressure system and high
pressure over the central Great Lakes. This will continue to produce
high end Small Craft Advisory conditions through this evening
before diminishing somewhat overnight.

Otherwise, small craft advisory winds/waves will persist through the
balance of the week as a brief period of ridging tonight into
Tuesday gives way to deep upper level troughing that will produce a
cold-air outbreak and arctic frontal passage Wednesday night into
Thursday that may also bring a period of gales...particularly on
Lake Ontario.

&&

.BUF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NY...Lake Effect Snow Watch from Wednesday afternoon through late
     Thursday night for NYZ006>008.
     Lake Effect Snow Watch from Wednesday afternoon through late
     Wednesday night for NYZ010-011.
     Lake Effect Snow Watch from Wednesday evening through late
     Thursday night for NYZ012-019-020-085.
MARINE...Small Craft Advisory until 7 AM EST Wednesday for LEZ040-041.
         Small Craft Advisory until 7 AM EST Wednesday for
         LOZ042>045.

&&

SYNOPSIS...WOOD
NEAR TERM...HITCHCOCK/THOMAS/WOOD
SHORT TERM...HITCHCOCK/RSH
LONG TERM...JJR
AVIATION...THOMAS
MARINE...HITCHCOCK/WOOD

HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BUFFALO NY
954 PM EST MON DEC 12 2016

NYZ010-011-140300-
NORTHERN ERIE-GENESEE-
954 PM EST MON DEC 12 2016

...LAKE EFFECT SNOW WATCH IN EFFECT FROM WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON THROUGH
LATE WEDNESDAY NIGHT...

THIS HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK IS FOR PORTIONS OF WESTERN NEW YORK.

.DAY ONE...TONIGHT.

THE PROBABILITY FOR WIDESPREAD HAZARDOUS WEATHER IS LOW.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...TUESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY.

PLEASE LISTEN TO NOAA WEATHER RADIO OR GO TO WEATHER.GOV ON THE
INTERNET FOR MORE INFORMATION ABOUT THE FOLLOWING HAZARDS.

   LAKE EFFECT SNOW WATCH.

SOUTHWEST TO WEST WINDS MAY GUST 40 TO 45 MPH BOTH WEDNESDAY AND
THURSDAY OF THIS WEEK.

THE COLDEST AIR YET THIS WINTER IS ON TRACK TO ARRIVE BY MID TO
LATE WEEK AND PERSIST INTO THE BEGINNING OF THE WEEKEND. A STRONG
ARCTIC COLD FRONT WILL CROSS THE AREA THURSDAY AFTERNOON OR
EVENING. THIS STRONG ARCTIC FRONT MAY BE ACCOMPANIED BY A VERY
HEAVY SNOW SQUALL WITH GUSTY WINDS CREATING A BRIEF PERIOD OF NEAR
BLIZZARD CONDITIONS.

IN ADDITION WIND CHILL VALUES WILL REACH BELOW ZERO WEDNESDAY
NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY MORNING...WITH THE COLDEST WIND CHILLS OF
NEAR -10 THURSDAY NIGHT AND EARLY FRIDAY MORNING.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

SPOTTER ACTIVATION IS NOT EXPECTED AT THIS TIME.

THIS PRODUCT...ALONG WITH OTHER WATCHES...WARNINGS...ADVISORIES...
AND STATEMENTS ISSUED BY THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE OFFICE IN
BUFFALO CAN BE FOUND ON THE INTERNET AT HTTP://WWW.WEATHER.GOV/BUF

NYZ012-019-020-085-140300-
WYOMING-CHAUTAUQUA-CATTARAUGUS-SOUTHERN ERIE-
954 PM EST MON DEC 12 2016

...LAKE EFFECT SNOW WATCH IN EFFECT FROM WEDNESDAY EVENING THROUGH
LATE THURSDAY NIGHT...

THIS HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK IS FOR PORTIONS OF WESTERN NEW YORK.

.DAY ONE...TONIGHT.

THE PROBABILITY FOR WIDESPREAD HAZARDOUS WEATHER IS LOW.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...TUESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY.

PLEASE LISTEN TO NOAA WEATHER RADIO OR GO TO WEATHER.GOV ON THE
INTERNET FOR MORE INFORMATION ABOUT THE FOLLOWING HAZARDS.

   LAKE EFFECT SNOW WATCH.

SOUTHWEST TO WEST WINDS MAY GUST 40 TO 45 MPH BOTH WEDNESDAY AND
THURSDAY OF THIS WEEK.

THE COLDEST AIR YET THIS WINTER IS ON TRACK TO ARRIVE BY MID TO
LATE WEEK AND PERSIST INTO THE BEGINNING OF THE WEEKEND. A STRONG
ARCTIC COLD FRONT WILL CROSS THE AREA THURSDAY AFTERNOON OR
EVENING. THIS STRONG ARCTIC FRONT MAY BE ACCOMPANIED BY A VERY
HEAVY SNOW SQUALL WITH GUSTY WINDS CREATING A BRIEF PERIOD OF NEAR
BLIZZARD CONDITIONS.

IN ADDITION WIND CHILL VALUES WILL REACH BELOW ZERO WEDNESDAY
NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY MORNING...WITH THE COLDEST WIND CHILLS OF -15
TO -20 THURSDAY NIGHT AND EARLY FRIDAY MORNING.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

SPOTTER ACTIVATION IS NOT EXPECTED AT THIS TIME.

THIS PRODUCT...ALONG WITH OTHER WATCHES...WARNINGS...ADVISORIES...
AND STATEMENTS ISSUED BY THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE OFFICE IN
BUFFALO CAN BE FOUND ON THE INTERNET AT HTTP://WWW.WEATHER.GOV/BUF

NYZ001>005-013-014-021-140300-
NIAGARA-ORLEANS-MONROE-WAYNE-NORTHERN CAYUGA-LIVINGSTON-ONTARIO-
ALLEGANY-
954 PM EST MON DEC 12 2016

THIS HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK IS FOR PORTIONS OF WESTERN AND NORTH
CENTRAL NEW YORK.

.DAY ONE...TONIGHT.

THE CHANCE OF WIDESPREAD HAZARDOUS WEATHER IS LOW.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...TUESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY.

SOUTHWEST TO WEST WINDS MAY GUST 40 TO 45 MPH BOTH WEDNESDAY AND
THURSDAY OF THIS WEEK.

A STRONG ARCTIC COLD FRONT WILL CROSS THE AREA THURSDAY AFTERNOON
OR EVENING. THIS STRONG ARCTIC FRONT MAY BE ACCOMPANIED BY A
VERY HEAVY SNOW SQUALL WITH GUSTY WINDS CREATING A BRIEF PERIOD OF
NEAR BLIZZARD CONDITIONS.

IN ADDITION WIND CHILL VALUES WILL REACH BELOW ZERO WEDNESDAY
NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY MORNING...WITH THE COLDEST WIND CHILLS OF
NEAR -10 THURSDAY NIGHT AND EARLY FRIDAY MORNING.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

SPOTTER ACTIVATION IS NOT EXPECTED AT THIS TIME.

THIS PRODUCT...ALONG WITH OTHER WATCHES...WARNINGS...ADVISORIES...
AND STATEMENTS ISSUED BY THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE OFFICE IN
BUFFALO CAN BE FOUND ON THE INTERNET AT HTTP://WWW.WEATHER.GOV/BUF

NYZ006>008-140300-
OSWEGO-JEFFERSON-LEWIS-
954 PM EST MON DEC 12 2016

...LAKE EFFECT SNOW WATCH IN EFFECT FROM WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON THROUGH
LATE THURSDAY NIGHT...

THIS HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK IS FOR PORTIONS OF CENTRAL NEW YORK.

.DAY ONE...TONIGHT.

THE PROBABILITY FOR WIDESPREAD HAZARDOUS WEATHER IS LOW.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...TUESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY.

PLEASE LISTEN TO NOAA WEATHER RADIO OR GO TO WEATHER.GOV ON THE
INTERNET FOR MORE INFORMATION ABOUT THE FOLLOWING HAZARDS.

   LAKE EFFECT SNOW WATCH.

SOUTHWEST TO WEST WINDS MAY GUST 40 TO 45 MPH BOTH WEDNESDAY AND
THURSDAY OF THIS WEEK.

IN ADDITION WIND CHILL VALUES WILL REACH BELOW ZERO WEDNESDAY
NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY MORNING...WITH THE COLDEST WIND CHILLS OF -15
TO -20 THURSDAY NIGHT AND EARLY FRIDAY MORNING.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

SPOTTER ACTIVATION IS NOT EXPECTED AT THIS TIME.

THIS PRODUCT...ALONG WITH OTHER WATCHES...WARNINGS...ADVISORIES...
AND STATEMENTS ISSUED BY THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE OFFICE IN
BUFFALO CAN BE FOUND ON THE INTERNET AT HTTP://WWW.WEATHER.GOV/BUF

LEZ020-040-041-LOZ030-042>045-062>065-SLZ022-024-140300-
UPPER NIAGARA RIVER AND BUFFALO HARBOR-
LAKE ERIE NEARSHORE WATERS FROM RIPLEY TO DUNKIRK-
LAKE ERIE NEARSHORE WATERS FROM DUNKIRK TO BUFFALO-
LOWER NIAGARA RIVER-
LAKE ONTARIO NEARSHORE WATERS FROM THE NIAGARA RIVER TO HAMLIN BEACH-
LAKE ONTARIO NEARSHORE WATERS FROM HAMLIN BEACH TO SODUS BAY-
LAKE ONTARIO NEARSHORE WATERS FROM SODUS BAY TO MEXICO BAY-
LAKE ONTARIO NEARSHORE WATERS FROM MEXICO BAY TO THE SAINT LAWRENCE
RIVER-
LAKE ONTARIO OPEN WATERS FROM THE NIAGARA RIVER TO HAMLIN BEACH-
LAKE ONTARIO OPEN WATERS FROM HAMLIN BEACH TO SODUS BAY-
LAKE ONTARIO OPEN WATERS FROM SODUS BAY TO MEXICO BAY-
LAKE ONTARIO OPEN WATERS FROM MEXICO BAY TO THE SAINT LAWRENCE RIVER-
SAINT LAWRENCE RIVER FROM CAPE VINCENT TO OGDENSBURG-
SAINT LAWRENCE RIVER FROM OGDENSBURG TO SAINT REGIS-
954 PM EST MON DEC 12 2016

THIS HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK IS FOR THE NEW YORK WATERS OF LAKE
ERIE...LAKE ONTARIO...AND THE SAINT LAWRENCE RIVER.

.DAY ONE...TONIGHT.

THE PROBABILITY FOR WIDESPREAD HAZARDOUS WEATHER IS LOW.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...TUESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY.

AN INCREASING PRESSURE GRADIENT ACROSS THE LOWER LAKES REGION AND
THE EXPECTED PASSAGES OF A PAIR OF ARCTIC FRONTS WEDNESDAY
AFTERNOON THROUGH THURSDAY NIGHT MAY BRING ANOTHER ROUND OF GALE
FORCE WINDS.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

SPOTTER ACTIVATION IS NOT EXPECTED AT THIS TIME.

THIS PRODUCT...ALONG WITH OTHER WATCHES...WARNINGS...ADVISORIES...
AND STATEMENTS ISSUED BY THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE OFFICE IN
BUFFALO CAN BE FOUND ON THE INTERNET AT HTTP://WWW.WEATHER.GOV/BUF

HITCHCOCK