Gale Watch 1, NWS Buffalo, NY

790 
WHUS71 KBUF 091418
MWWBUF

URGENT - MARINE WEATHER MESSAGE
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BUFFALO NY
918 AM EST SAT JAN 9 2016

LEZ040-041-092230-
/O.CON.KBUF.GL.A.0001.160110T1700Z-160111T0900Z/
LAKE ERIE NEARSHORE WATERS FROM RIPLEY TO DUNKIRK-
LAKE ERIE NEARSHORE WATERS FROM DUNKIRK TO BUFFALO-
918 AM EST SAT JAN 9 2016

...GALE WATCH REMAINS IN EFFECT FROM SUNDAY AFTERNOON THROUGH
LATE SUNDAY NIGHT...

* WINDS...WEST TO 35 KNOTS.

* WAVES...8 TO 11 FEET.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

A GALE WATCH IS ISSUED WHEN THE RISK OF GALE FORCE WINDS OF 34 TO
47 KNOTS HAS SIGNIFICANTLY INCREASED...BUT THE SPECIFIC TIMING
AND/OR LOCATION IS STILL UNCERTAIN. IT IS INTENDED TO PROVIDE
ADDITIONAL LEAD TIME FOR MARINERS WHO MAY WISH TO CONSIDER
ALTERING THEIR PLANS.

&&

$$

LOZ042>045-062>065-092230-
/O.CON.KBUF.GL.A.0001.160110T1900Z-160111T1700Z/
LAKE ONTARIO NEARSHORE WATERS FROM THE NIAGARA RIVER TO HAMLIN
BEACH-
LAKE ONTARIO NEARSHORE WATERS FROM HAMLIN BEACH TO SODUS BAY-
LAKE ONTARIO NEARSHORE WATERS FROM SODUS BAY TO MEXICO BAY-
LAKE ONTARIO NEARSHORE WATERS FROM MEXICO BAY TO THE SAINT
LAWRENCE RIVER-
LAKE ONTARIO OPEN WATERS FROM THE NIAGARA RIVER TO HAMLIN BEACH-
LAKE ONTARIO OPEN WATERS FROM HAMLIN BEACH TO SODUS BAY-
LAKE ONTARIO OPEN WATERS FROM SODUS BAY TO MEXICO BAY-
LAKE ONTARIO OPEN WATERS FROM MEXICO BAY TO THE SAINT LAWRENCE
RIVER-
918 AM EST SAT JAN 9 2016

...GALE WATCH REMAINS IN EFFECT FROM SUNDAY AFTERNOON THROUGH
MONDAY MORNING...

* WINDS...WEST TO 40 KNOTS.

* WAVES...13 TO 17 FEET.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

A GALE WATCH IS ISSUED WHEN THE RISK OF GALE FORCE WINDS OF 34 TO
47 KNOTS HAS SIGNIFICANTLY INCREASED...BUT THE SPECIFIC TIMING
AND/OR LOCATION IS STILL UNCERTAIN. IT IS INTENDED TO PROVIDE
ADDITIONAL LEAD TIME FOR MARINERS WHO MAY WISH TO CONSIDER
ALTERING THEIR PLANS.

&&

$$

HITCHCOCK

761 
WHUS71 KBUF 092028
MWWBUF

URGENT - MARINE WEATHER MESSAGE
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BUFFALO NY
328 PM EST SAT JAN 9 2016

LOZ042-062-100430-
/O.UPG.KBUF.GL.A.0001.160110T1900Z-160111T1700Z/
/O.NEW.KBUF.GL.W.0001.160110T2000Z-160111T1500Z/
LAKE ONTARIO NEARSHORE WATERS FROM THE NIAGARA RIVER TO HAMLIN
BEACH-
LAKE ONTARIO OPEN WATERS FROM THE NIAGARA RIVER TO HAMLIN BEACH-
328 PM EST SAT JAN 9 2016

...GALE WARNING IN EFFECT FROM 3 PM SUNDAY TO 10 AM EST MONDAY...

THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE IN BUFFALO HAS ISSUED A GALE
WARNING...WHICH IS IN EFFECT FROM 3 PM SUNDAY TO 10 AM EST
MONDAY. THIS UPGRADES THE GALE WATCH WHICH WAS PREVIOUSLY IN
EFFECT.

* WINDS...WEST TO 45 KNOTS.

* WAVES...10 TO 14 FEET.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

A GALE WARNING MEANS WINDS OF 34 TO 47 KNOTS ARE IMMINENT OR
OCCURRING. OPERATING A VESSEL IN GALE CONDITIONS REQUIRES
EXPERIENCE AND PROPERLY EQUIPPED VESSELS. IT IS HIGHLY
RECOMMENDED THAT MARINERS WITHOUT THE PROPER EXPERIENCE SEEK SAFE
HARBOR PRIOR TO THE ONSET OF GALE CONDITIONS.

&&

$$

LOZ043>045-063>065-100430-
/O.UPG.KBUF.GL.A.0001.160110T1900Z-160111T1700Z/
/O.NEW.KBUF.GL.W.0001.160110T2200Z-160111T2100Z/
LAKE ONTARIO NEARSHORE WATERS FROM HAMLIN BEACH TO SODUS BAY-
LAKE ONTARIO NEARSHORE WATERS FROM SODUS BAY TO MEXICO BAY-
LAKE ONTARIO NEARSHORE WATERS FROM MEXICO BAY TO THE SAINT
LAWRENCE RIVER-
LAKE ONTARIO OPEN WATERS FROM HAMLIN BEACH TO SODUS BAY-
LAKE ONTARIO OPEN WATERS FROM SODUS BAY TO MEXICO BAY-
LAKE ONTARIO OPEN WATERS FROM MEXICO BAY TO THE SAINT LAWRENCE
RIVER-
328 PM EST SAT JAN 9 2016

...GALE WARNING IN EFFECT FROM 5 PM SUNDAY TO 4 PM EST MONDAY...

THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE IN BUFFALO HAS ISSUED A GALE
WARNING...WHICH IS IN EFFECT FROM 5 PM SUNDAY TO 4 PM EST MONDAY.
THIS UPGRADES THE GALE WATCH WHICH WAS PREVIOUSLY IN EFFECT.

* WINDS...WEST TO 45 KNOTS.

* WAVES...13 TO 17 FEET.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

A GALE WARNING MEANS WINDS OF 34 TO 47 KNOTS ARE IMMINENT OR
OCCURRING. OPERATING A VESSEL IN GALE CONDITIONS REQUIRES
EXPERIENCE AND PROPERLY EQUIPPED VESSELS. IT IS HIGHLY
RECOMMENDED THAT MARINERS WITHOUT THE PROPER EXPERIENCE SEEK SAFE
HARBOR PRIOR TO THE ONSET OF GALE CONDITIONS.

&&

$$

LEZ040-041-100430-
/O.CON.KBUF.GL.A.0001.160110T1700Z-160111T0900Z/
LAKE ERIE NEARSHORE WATERS FROM RIPLEY TO DUNKIRK-
LAKE ERIE NEARSHORE WATERS FROM DUNKIRK TO BUFFALO-
328 PM EST SAT JAN 9 2016

...GALE WATCH REMAINS IN EFFECT FROM SUNDAY AFTERNOON THROUGH
LATE SUNDAY NIGHT...

* WINDS...WEST TO 35 KNOTS.

* WAVES...10 TO 13 FEET.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

A GALE WATCH IS ISSUED WHEN THE RISK OF GALE FORCE WINDS OF 34 TO
47 KNOTS HAS SIGNIFICANTLY INCREASED...BUT THE SPECIFIC TIMING
AND/OR LOCATION IS STILL UNCERTAIN. IT IS INTENDED TO PROVIDE
ADDITIONAL LEAD TIME FOR MARINERS WHO MAY WISH TO CONSIDER
ALTERING THEIR PLANS.

&&

$$

HITCHCOCK

135 
WHUS71 KBUF 092353
MWWBUF

URGENT - MARINE WEATHER MESSAGE
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BUFFALO NY
653 PM EST SAT JAN 9 2016

LOZ042-062-100800-
/O.CON.KBUF.GL.W.0001.160110T2000Z-160111T1500Z/
LAKE ONTARIO NEARSHORE WATERS FROM THE NIAGARA RIVER TO HAMLIN
BEACH-
LAKE ONTARIO OPEN WATERS FROM THE NIAGARA RIVER TO HAMLIN BEACH-
653 PM EST SAT JAN 9 2016

...GALE WARNING REMAINS IN EFFECT FROM 3 PM SUNDAY TO 10 AM EST
MONDAY...

* WINDS...WEST TO 45 KNOTS.

* WAVES...10 TO 14 FEET.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

A GALE WARNING MEANS WINDS OF 34 TO 47 KNOTS ARE IMMINENT OR
OCCURRING. OPERATING A VESSEL IN GALE CONDITIONS REQUIRES
EXPERIENCE AND PROPERLY EQUIPPED VESSELS. IT IS HIGHLY
RECOMMENDED THAT MARINERS WITHOUT THE PROPER EXPERIENCE SEEK SAFE
HARBOR PRIOR TO THE ONSET OF GALE CONDITIONS.

&&

$$

LOZ043>045-063>065-100800-
/O.CON.KBUF.GL.W.0001.160110T2200Z-160111T2100Z/
LAKE ONTARIO NEARSHORE WATERS FROM HAMLIN BEACH TO SODUS BAY-
LAKE ONTARIO NEARSHORE WATERS FROM SODUS BAY TO MEXICO BAY-
LAKE ONTARIO NEARSHORE WATERS FROM MEXICO BAY TO THE SAINT
LAWRENCE RIVER-
LAKE ONTARIO OPEN WATERS FROM HAMLIN BEACH TO SODUS BAY-
LAKE ONTARIO OPEN WATERS FROM SODUS BAY TO MEXICO BAY-
LAKE ONTARIO OPEN WATERS FROM MEXICO BAY TO THE SAINT LAWRENCE
RIVER-
653 PM EST SAT JAN 9 2016

...GALE WARNING REMAINS IN EFFECT FROM 5 PM SUNDAY TO 4 PM EST
MONDAY...

* WINDS...WEST TO 45 KNOTS.

* WAVES...13 TO 17 FEET.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

A GALE WARNING MEANS WINDS OF 34 TO 47 KNOTS ARE IMMINENT OR
OCCURRING. OPERATING A VESSEL IN GALE CONDITIONS REQUIRES
EXPERIENCE AND PROPERLY EQUIPPED VESSELS. IT IS HIGHLY
RECOMMENDED THAT MARINERS WITHOUT THE PROPER EXPERIENCE SEEK SAFE
HARBOR PRIOR TO THE ONSET OF GALE CONDITIONS.

&&

$$

LEZ040-041-100800-
/O.CON.KBUF.GL.A.0001.160110T1700Z-160111T0900Z/
LAKE ERIE NEARSHORE WATERS FROM RIPLEY TO DUNKIRK-
LAKE ERIE NEARSHORE WATERS FROM DUNKIRK TO BUFFALO-
653 PM EST SAT JAN 9 2016

...GALE WATCH REMAINS IN EFFECT FROM SUNDAY AFTERNOON THROUGH
LATE SUNDAY NIGHT...

* WINDS...WEST TO 35 KNOTS.

* WAVES...10 TO 13 FEET.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

A GALE WATCH IS ISSUED WHEN THE RISK OF GALE FORCE WINDS OF 34 TO
47 KNOTS HAS SIGNIFICANTLY INCREASED...BUT THE SPECIFIC TIMING
AND/OR LOCATION IS STILL UNCERTAIN. IT IS INTENDED TO PROVIDE
ADDITIONAL LEAD TIME FOR MARINERS WHO MAY WISH TO CONSIDER
ALTERING THEIR PLANS.

&&

$$

856 
WHUS71 KBUF 100247
MWWBUF

URGENT - MARINE WEATHER MESSAGE
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BUFFALO NY
947 PM EST SAT JAN 9 2016

LEZ040-041-101100-
/O.UPG.KBUF.GL.A.0001.160110T1700Z-160111T0900Z/
/O.EXB.KBUF.GL.W.0001.160110T1700Z-160111T1200Z/
LAKE ERIE NEARSHORE WATERS FROM RIPLEY TO DUNKIRK-
LAKE ERIE NEARSHORE WATERS FROM DUNKIRK TO BUFFALO-
947 PM EST SAT JAN 9 2016

...GALE WARNING IN EFFECT FROM NOON SUNDAY TO 7 AM EST MONDAY...

THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE IN BUFFALO HAS ISSUED A GALE
WARNING...WHICH IS IN EFFECT FROM NOON SUNDAY TO 7 AM EST MONDAY.
THE GALE WATCH IS NO LONGER IN EFFECT.

* WINDS...WEST TO 40 KNOTS.

* WAVES...12 TO 16 FEET.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

A GALE WARNING MEANS WINDS OF 34 TO 47 KNOTS ARE IMMINENT OR
OCCURRING. OPERATING A VESSEL IN GALE CONDITIONS REQUIRES
EXPERIENCE AND PROPERLY EQUIPPED VESSELS. IT IS HIGHLY
RECOMMENDED THAT MARINERS WITHOUT THE PROPER EXPERIENCE SEEK SAFE
HARBOR PRIOR TO THE ONSET OF GALE CONDITIONS.

&&

$$

LOZ042-062-101100-
/O.CON.KBUF.GL.W.0001.160110T2000Z-160111T1500Z/
LAKE ONTARIO NEARSHORE WATERS FROM THE NIAGARA RIVER TO HAMLIN
BEACH-
LAKE ONTARIO OPEN WATERS FROM THE NIAGARA RIVER TO HAMLIN BEACH-
947 PM EST SAT JAN 9 2016

...GALE WARNING REMAINS IN EFFECT FROM 3 PM SUNDAY TO 10 AM EST
MONDAY...

* WINDS...WEST TO 45 KNOTS.

* WAVES...13 TO 17 FEET.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

A GALE WARNING MEANS WINDS OF 34 TO 47 KNOTS ARE IMMINENT OR
OCCURRING. OPERATING A VESSEL IN GALE CONDITIONS REQUIRES
EXPERIENCE AND PROPERLY EQUIPPED VESSELS. IT IS HIGHLY
RECOMMENDED THAT MARINERS WITHOUT THE PROPER EXPERIENCE SEEK SAFE
HARBOR PRIOR TO THE ONSET OF GALE CONDITIONS.

&&

$$

LOZ043>045-063>065-101100-
/O.CON.KBUF.GL.W.0001.160110T2200Z-160111T2100Z/
LAKE ONTARIO NEARSHORE WATERS FROM HAMLIN BEACH TO SODUS BAY-
LAKE ONTARIO NEARSHORE WATERS FROM SODUS BAY TO MEXICO BAY-
LAKE ONTARIO NEARSHORE WATERS FROM MEXICO BAY TO THE SAINT
LAWRENCE RIVER-
LAKE ONTARIO OPEN WATERS FROM HAMLIN BEACH TO SODUS BAY-
LAKE ONTARIO OPEN WATERS FROM SODUS BAY TO MEXICO BAY-
LAKE ONTARIO OPEN WATERS FROM MEXICO BAY TO THE SAINT LAWRENCE
RIVER-
947 PM EST SAT JAN 9 2016

...GALE WARNING REMAINS IN EFFECT FROM 5 PM SUNDAY TO 4 PM EST
MONDAY...

* WINDS...WEST TO 45 KNOTS.

* WAVES...15 TO 20 FEET.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

A GALE WARNING MEANS WINDS OF 34 TO 47 KNOTS ARE IMMINENT OR
OCCURRING. OPERATING A VESSEL IN GALE CONDITIONS REQUIRES
EXPERIENCE AND PROPERLY EQUIPPED VESSELS. IT IS HIGHLY
RECOMMENDED THAT MARINERS WITHOUT THE PROPER EXPERIENCE SEEK SAFE
HARBOR PRIOR TO THE ONSET OF GALE CONDITIONS.

&&

$$

LEZ020-LOZ030-101100-
/O.NEW.KBUF.SC.Y.0002.160110T1700Z-160112T0000Z/
UPPER NIAGARA RIVER AND BUFFALO HARBOR-LOWER NIAGARA RIVER-
947 PM EST SAT JAN 9 2016

...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY IN EFFECT FROM NOON SUNDAY TO 7 PM EST
MONDAY...

THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE IN BUFFALO HAS ISSUED A SMALL CRAFT
ADVISORY...WHICH IS IN EFFECT FROM NOON SUNDAY TO 7 PM EST
MONDAY.

* WINDS...WEST TO 30 KNOTS.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

A SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY MEANS THAT WIND SPEEDS OF 18 TO 33 KNOTS
AND/OR WAVES AVERAGING 4 FEET OR MORE ARE EXPECTED TO PRODUCE
HAZARDOUS WAVE CONDITIONS TO SMALL CRAFT. INEXPERIENCED
MARINERS... ESPECIALLY THOSE OPERATING SMALLER VESSELS... SHOULD
AVOID NAVIGATING IN THESE CONDITIONS.

&&

$$

CHURCH

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BUFFALO NY
1201 AM EST SAT JAN 9 2016

.SYNOPSIS...
A SOMEWHAT DISORGANIZED STORM SYSTEM OVER THE NATIONS MID SECTION
WILL MOVE FROM THE MID WEST TO THE UPPER GREAT LAKES OVERNIGHT. THIS
WILL SPREAD A PERIOD OF RAIN ACROSS THE REGION TONIGHT...WITH A FEW
HOURS OF FREEZING RAIN LIKELY ACROSS PARTS OF THE NORTH COUNTRY AND
THE WESTERN SOUTHERN TIER. WHILE SOME RAIN SHOWERS WILL STILL BE
POSSIBLE ON SATURDAY...OUR FOCUS WILL TURN TO A MAJOR PATTERN CHANGE
THAT WILL TAKE PLACE FOR THE UPCOMING WEEK...LEADING TO MUCH COLDER
WEATHER WITH THE LIKELIHOOD FOR SIGNIFICANT LAKE SNOWS.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TODAY/...
A BROAD AREA OF LOW PRESSURE OVER THE MID WEST EARLY EVENING WILL
PUSH NORTHEAST ACROSS THE UPPER GREAT LAKES DURING THE COURSE OF
THE OVERNIGHT. AN ILL DEFINED WARM FRONTAL BOUNDARY ASSOCIATED
WITH THIS FEATURE WILL WORK ITS WAY NORTHWARD ACROSS OUR REGION IN
THE PROCESS...BUT GIVEN THE WEAK BAROCLINICITY OF THE FRONTAL
STRUCTURE AND THUS MARGINAL FRONTOGENTIC LIFT... RAINFALL AMOUNTS
WILL GENERALLY BE A TENTH OF AN INCH OR LESS.

WHILE THIS WILL TRANSLATE IN A NUISANCE EVENT FOR THE VAST MAJORITY
OF WESTERN NEW YORK... EXCEPT FOR SOME FREEZING RAIN AND SLEET IN
THE TUG HILL TO POINTS EAST INTO THE FOOTHILLS OF THE ADIRONDACKS
(IE. LEWIS CO). AS A RESULT...THERE COULD BE SEVERAL HOURS OF
FREEZING RAIN FOR THOSE AREAS. FREEZING RAIN ADVISORY FOR
CATTARAUGUS AND ALLEGANY HAS BEEN CANCELED AS SURFACE TEMPERATURES
ARE RISING ABOVE FREEZING AND PRECIPITATION IS TAPERING OFF TO
ISOLATED/SCATTERED RAIN SHOWERS.

OTHERWISE... WILL MAINTAIN THE CURRENT WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY FOR
LEWIS COUNTY. LEWIS COUNTY WILL SEE A WINTRY MIX OF FREEZING
RAIN/SLEET  AND RAIN OVERNIGHT... WITH MOST THE OF THE IMPACT FELT
ACROSS THE TUG HILL AND IN THE BLACK RIVER VALLEY NEAR LOWVILLE.
EXPECT ICE ACCUMULATIONS OF A FEW HUNDREDTHS OF AN INCH... BUT LIKELY
LESS THAN A TENTH OF AN INCH IN THIS AREA. TEMPERATURES WILL RISE
ABOVE FREEZING TOWARD MORNING... AS WELL AS PRECIPITATION WILL TAPER
OFF AND BECOME MUCH LIGHTER AND SHOWERY BY MORNING... WHICH SHOULD
END THE ADVERSE CONDITIONS.

EARLY SATURDAY... AS THE WARM FRONT LIFTS NORTH OF OUR REGION ACROSS
THE SAINT LAWRENCE VALLEY... THE UPPER LEVEL TROUGH WILL PASS JUST
WEST OF OUR FORECAST AREA (ACROSS SE ONTARIO) IN THE MORNING. THIS
WILL SPUR A SECONDARY BROKEN LINE OF SHOWERS ACROSS WESTERN NY IN
THE MORNING. THEN BEHIND THE TROUGH PASSAGE... DRYING BETWEEN H925
AND H7 WILL SUPPORT LOWERING POPS TO SLGT CHC BY MIDDAY IN MOST
AREAS...ALTHOUGH CLOUD COVER SHOULD STILL BE PLENTIFUL. TEMPERATURES
ON SATURDAY WILL REMAIN WELL ABOVE NORMAL WITH READINGS CLIMBING
INTO THE MID 40S FOR MOST AREAS.

&&

.SHORT TERM /TONIGHT THROUGH MONDAY NIGHT/...
THE FOCUS DURING THIS PERIOD WILL BE ON A STORM SYSTEM TRACKING
ACROSS THE EASTERN GREAT LAKES WHICH WILL BRING A SHARP CHANGE BACK
TO TYPICAL WESTERN AND CENTRAL NEW YORK WINTER WEATHER SUNDAY NIGHT.
THIS SYSTEM WILL SHIFT ACROSS THE OHIO VALLEY SATURDAY NIGHT THEN
CROSS THE EASTERN GREAT LAKES INTO SOUTHWESTERN QUEBEC ON SUNDAY. A
COLD WESTERLY FLOW WILL THEN CROSS THE GREAT LAKES IN THE WAKE OF
THIS SYSTEM ON MONDAY AND MONDAY NIGHT. THIS WILL TRIGGER SOME
SHIFTING BANDS OF LAKE EFFECT SNOW EARLY NEXT WEEK AS WINDS BACK
AHEAD OF A GREAT LAKES CLIPPER APPROACHING FOR TUESDAY. A MORE
SIGNIFICANT LAKE EFFECT EVENT IS EXPECTED IN THE WAKE OF THE CLIPPER
MID NEXT WEEK WITH DETAILS INCLUDED IN THE LONG TERM SECTION BELOW
AND HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK.

INITIALLY A MILD AIRMASS WILL BE IN PLACE SATURDAY NIGHT WITH JUST A
CHANCE OF SOME SCATTERED SHOWERS BEFORE MIDNIGHT AS SHORTWAVE
RIDGING PASSES OVERHEAD. AS THE SURFACE LOW TRACKS ACROSS THE OHIO
VALLEY A STRONG SOUTHERLY LOW LEVEL JET WILL COMBINE WITH A SHARP
VORT MAX AND PLUME OF 700MB MOISTURE TO BRING A PERIOD OF STEADY
WARM ADVECTION RAIN ACROSS THE FORECAST AREA LATE SATURDAY NIGHT
INTO SUNDAY MORNING. THIS WILL BE A SOAKING RAIN WITH TOTALS RANGING
FROM A HALF TO THREE-QUARTERS OF AN INCH. THE LARGER IMPACT WILL BE
WITH THE STRENGTHENING LOW LEVEL JET LIFTING ACROSS THE REGION AND
ASSOCIATED DOWNSLOPING HIGH WINDS. MODELS SHOW SOUTHEASTERLY 925MB
WINDS INCREASING TO 50 KNOTS ALONG THE CHAUTAUQUA RIDGE SATURDAY
NIGHT THEN REACHING AS HIGH AS 60 KNOTS OVER THE TUG HILL SUNDAY
MORNING. THE SOUTHEAST FLOW IS FAVORABLE FOR DOWNSLOPING AS WINDS
ARE SQUEEZED BETWEEN THE HIGHER TERRAIN AND AN INVERSION ALOFT. HAVE
ISSUED A HIGH WIND WATCH FOR THE FAVORABLE DOWNSLOPE REGIONS ALONG
THE LAKE ERIE SHORELINE AND THE NORTH AND NORTHWEST FACING SLOPES OF
THE TUG INCLUDING THE BLACK RIVER VALLEY.

ON SUNDAY THE LOW WILL CROSS THE EASTERN GREAT LAKES JUST WEST OF
BUFFALO WITH A SHARP COLD FRONT PASSING EAST ACROSS THE FORECAST
AREA THROUGH THE AFTERNOON HOURS. AS TEMPERATURES DROP FROM THE 40S
INTO THE 20S BEHIND THE FRONT...WRAP AROUND MOISTURE WILL PRODUCE
RAIN SHOWERS MIXING WITH THEN CHANGING TO ALL SNOW SHOWERS BY SUNDAY
EVENING. ONLY EXPECTING UP TO AN INCH OF SNOW AREA WIDE DURING THIS
CHANGEOVER THEN A LAKE RESPONSE KICKS IN AS 850MB TEMPS SHARPLY FALL
INTO THE NEGATIVE TEENS CELSIUS. ADDITIONALLY...A ROUND OF MORE
WIDESPREAD WESTERLY GUSTY WINDS CAN BE EXPECTED BEHIND THE COLD
FRONT AS WINDS FROM A 50KT 850MB JET MIX TO THE SURFACE. GUSTS INTO
THE 40S WILL LIKELY REQUIRE A WIND ADVISORY FOR SUNDAY AFTERNOON AND
EVENING.

SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY NIGHT LAKE EFFECT SNOWS WILL DEVELOP
EAST OF THE LAKES INITIALLY ON A WESTERLY 270 FLOW. STEERING WINDS
WILL THEN SLOWLY BACK TO ABOUT 250 THEN 220 LIFTING THE LAKE BANDS
NORTH BY MONDAY NIGHT. OFF LAKE ERIE...THIS WOULD LIFT THE BAND
ACROSS BUFFALO TO THE NORTHTOWNS AND NIAGARA FALLS. OFF LAKE
ONTARIO...THE BAND WOULD LIFT ACROSS WATERTOWN TOWARD THE SAINT
LAWRENCE RIVER. THE LAKE ONTARIO BAND EVEN LOOKS TO HAVE AN UPSTREAM
MOISTURE CONNECTION WITH GEORGIAN BAY ALONG WITH A FAVORABLE FETCH
ACROSS THE LAKE. WHILE ACCUMULATING LAKE SNOWS ARE EXPECTED EAST OF
BOTH LAKES...THE MORE SIGNIFICANT ACCUMULATIONS WILL BE EAST OF LAKE
ONTARIO DUE TO MORE FAVORABLE PARAMETERS. THIS MAY ALSO IMPACT THE
EVENING COMMUTES MONDAY EVENING IN BUFFALO AND WATERTOWN. LAKE
EFFECT HEADLINES WILL LIKELY BE NEEDED TO COVER THIS EARLY WEEK
EVENT...WITH A SECOND STRONGER EVENT EXPECTED LATER IN THE WEEK. DUE
TO THE SHIFTING NATURE OF THE BANDS AND SOME MORE LIMITED PARAMETERS
OFF LAKE ERIE...WILL HOLD OFF ON THESE HEADLINES UNTIL A MORE CLEAR
SCENARIO DEVELOPS WITH CONFIDENCE INCREASING AS THIS EVENT
EVENTUALLY FALLS WITHIN THE RANGE OF MESOSCALE MODELS. OUTSIDE OF
THE LAKE EFFECT...A RETURN TO WINTER TEMPERATURES WILL BE FELT
ACROSS THE ENTIRE FORECAST AREA ON MONDAY WITH TEMPERATURES ONLY
REACHING INTO THE 20S FOR HIGHS AND DIPPING INTO THE TEENS ON MONDAY
NIGHT.

&&

.LONG TERM /TUESDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
A MORE SIGNIFICANT...LONG DURATION AND HIGH IMPACT LAKE EFFECT SNOW
EVENT IS EXPECTED FROM MIDWEEK THROUGH FRIDAY ON THE HEELS OF AN
ALBERTA CLIPPER SYSTEM FORECAST TO CROSS THE GREAT LAKES TUESDAY.
THIS CLIPPER WILL ARRIVE ACROSS WESTERN AND CENTRAL NEW YORK LATER
TUESDAY INTO TUESDAY NIGHT WITH A WIDESPREAD GENERAL SNOWFALL FOR
ALL. IT IS FAR TOO EARLY TO ESTIMATE ANY SNOW AMOUNT FROM THIS
CLIPPER BUT ADVISORY LEVEL TOTALS ARE NOT OUT OF THE QUESTION.

IN THE WAKE OF THIS CLIPPER A BROAD AND DEEP 500MB TROUGH WILL
SETTLE OVER THE GREAT LAKES THROUGH THE END OF THE WEEK WHILE THE
CLIPPER BOMBS OUT OFF THE MAINE COAST AND SHIFTS NORTH ACROSS THE
CANADIAN MARITIMES. THIS FITS THE PATTERN OF CLASSIC SIGNIFICANT
LAKE EFFECT EVENTS WHEN COMPARING TO LOCAL RESEARCH COMPOSITES.
850MB TEMPS WILL LOWER TOWARD -20C WITH CURRENT LAKE TEMPS OF 3C TO
5C WILL CREATE VERY STEEP LAPSE RATES AND TALL LAKE INDUCED
EQUILIBRIUM LEVELS. NEARLY 24 HOURS OF 270 DEGREE FLOW WEDNESDAY
INTO THURSDAY WITH A FAVORABLE BACKGROUND SYNOPTIC MOISTURE PATTERN
WILL LIKELY BRING SNOW TOTALS MEASURING IN FEET OF SNOW FOR AREAS
EAST OF THE LAKES THAT SEE THE BANDS LOCK IN PLACE FOR AN EXTENDED
PERIOD OF TIME. THUNDERSNOW WITH SNOW RATES OF SEVERAL INCHES AN
HOUR MAY ALSO BE POSSIBLE. THE EVENT LOOKS TO CONTINUE INTO FRIDAY
BEFORE A BROAD ARCTIC HIGH BUILDS SOUTH ACROSS THE NORTHERN PLAINS
WHICH WILL VEER WINDS TO NORTHERLY AND BEGIN TO LOWER LAKE INDUCED
EQUILIBRIUM LEVELS AS A SUBSIDENCE INVERSION DEVELOPS. AS WITH THE
EARLY WEEK EVENT...IT IS FAR TOO SOON TO PRODUCE CONFIDENT SNOW
TOTALS FOR SPECIFIC AREAS FOR THIS EVENT. AN UPDATED HAZARDOUS
WEATHER OUTLOOK HAS BEEN ISSUED TO COVER THIS MORE SIGNIFICANT
SECOND EVENT. TEMPERATURES THROUGH THE WEEK WILL AVERAGE NEAR TO
BELOW NORMAL WITH HIGHS ONLY INTO THE 20S AND LOWS OVERNIGHT IN THE
TEENS AND SINGLE DIGITS.

&&

.AVIATION /05Z SATURDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
A WEAK FRONTAL BOUNDARY CONTINUES TO WORK NORTHWARD ACROSS THE
REGION THIS EVENING. WITH RAIN AND INCREASED MOISTURE BEHIND THIS
FRONT... EXPECT CIGS TO FALL OVERNIGHT... WITH MVFR BECOMING MORE
COMMON ACROSS THE LAKE PLAINS... WITH IFR/LIFR ACROSS THE HIGHER
ELEVATIONS OF THE SOUTHERN TIER AND FINGER LAKES REGION.

ON SATURDAY...MVFR TO IFR CIGS WILL GENERALLY REMAIN IN PLACE...
WITH CIGS LIKELY LIFTING TO VFR LEVELS ACROSS THE FINGER LAKES
REGION (INCL. KROC). THE LOWER CIGS WILL BE ACCOMPANIED BY SOME
LIGHT SHOWERS...MAINLY DURING THE MORNING HOURS.

OUTLOOK...
SATURDAY NIGHT...MVFR TO IFR IN RAIN SHOWERS.
SUNDAY...RAIN MIXING WITH AND CHANGING TO SNOW BY SUNDAY NIGHT
WITH IFR DEVELOPING.
MONDAY...IFR IN LAKE EFFECT SNOW SHOWERS EAST OF THE LAKES.
MONDAY NIGHT AND TUESDAY...IFR IN LAKE EFFECT SNOW SHOWERS NORTHEAST
OF THE LAKES...OTHERWISE VFR WITH SCATTERED FLURRIES AND SNOW SHOWERS.
WEDNESDAY...MAINLY VFR...BUT MVFR TO IFR IN LAKE SNOWS EAST OF BOTH
LAKES.

&&

.MARINE...
A WEAK STORM SYSTEM OVER THE UPPER MID WEST THIS EVENING WILL PUSH
NORTHEAST ACROSS THE UPPER GREAT LAKES DURING THE OVERNIGHT. THIS
WILL PRODUCE MODERATE SOUTHEASTERLIES ACROSS THE LOWER GREAT LAKES
FOR THE BULK OF THE NIGHT...WITH WINDS VEERING IN THE WAKE OF A WARM
FRONT SATURDAY MORNING. THIS FLOW WILL KEEP THE HIGHEST WAVES IN
CANADIAN WATERS...ALTHOUGH CONDITIONS WILL APPROACH SCA ADVISORY
LEVELS...PARTICULARLY NORTH OF MEXICO BAY TO THE ST LAWRENCE RIVER.
A FLAG MAY BE HOISTED FOR THAT AREA IN A LATER FORECAST PACKAGE.

MODERATE SOUTHERLIES ARE FORECAST ACROSS BOTH LAKES ERIE AND ONTARIO
FOR SATURDAY...WITH MARGINAL SCA CONDITIONS STILL IN PLACE FOR THE
NEARSHORE WATERS NORTH OF MEXICO BAY.

SOUTHEAST WINDS AHEAD OF A STRONG STORM SYSTEM WILL FRESHEN ACROSS
THE LOWER GREAT LAKES SATURDAY NIGHT...WITH GALE FORCE WINDS LIKELY
IN THE WAKE OF THE STORM LATE SUNDAY AND SUNDAY NIGHT.

&&

.BUF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NY...HIGH WIND WATCH FROM LATE TONIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY AFTERNOON FOR
     NYZ007-008.
     HIGH WIND WATCH FROM THIS EVENING THROUGH SUNDAY MORNING FOR
     NYZ019-085.
     WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY UNTIL 6 AM EST EARLY THIS MORNING FOR
     NYZ008.
MARINE...NONE.

&&

SYNOPSIS...CHURCH/RSH
NEAR TERM...CHURCH/RSH
SHORT TERM...SMITH
LONG TERM...SMITH
AVIATION...CHURCH/RSH
MARINE...RSH

HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BUFFALO NY
639 PM EST FRI JAN 8 2016

NYZ001-002-010>012-100000-
NIAGARA-ORLEANS-NORTHERN ERIE-GENESEE-WYOMING-
639 PM EST FRI JAN 8 2016

THIS HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK IS FOR PORTIONS OF WESTERN NEW YORK.

.DAY ONE...TONIGHT.

HAZARDOUS WEATHER IS NOT EXPECTED AT THIS TIME.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...SATURDAY THROUGH THURSDAY.

STRONG SOUTHWEST WINDS WITH GUSTS UP TO 50 MPH ARE POSSIBLE
SUNDAY AND SUNDAY NIGHT.

SOME LAKE EFFECT BANDS ARE EXPECTED ON MONDAY...MOVING FROM THE
SOUTHERN TIER NORTHWARD ACROSS THE BUFFALO METRO AREA BY MONDAY
EVENING. WHILE SOME WEATHER RELATED IMPACTS ARE EXPECTED WITH
THIS BAND...A FAR MORE IMPRESSIVE SETUP IS EXPECTED LATER TUESDAY
INTO WEDNESDAY...INCLUDING PORTIONS OF BUFFALO AND AREA SUBURBS.
THIS BAND MAY CONTINUE AT TIMES THROUGH THURSDAY BEFORE SNOW
BECOMES MORE FOCUSED ON THE SOUTHERN TIER TOWARD THE END OF THE
WEEK.

WHILE THE INITIAL SNOW ON MONDAY SHOULD NOT BE DOWNPLAYED...THE
MIDDLE PORTION OF THE WEEK HAS THE POTENTIAL TO BECOME A HIGH
IMPACT LAKE EFFECT EVENT WITH SEVERAL FEET OF SNOW POSSIBLY
ACCUMULATING IN NARROW REGIONS OVER RELATIVELY SHORT PERIODS OF
TIME.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

SPOTTER ACTIVATION IS NOT EXPECTED AT THIS TIME.

THIS PRODUCT...ALONG WITH OTHER WATCHES...WARNINGS...ADVISORIES...
AND STATEMENTS ISSUED BY THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE OFFICE IN
BUFFALO CAN BE FOUND ON THE INTERNET AT HTTP://WWW.WEATHER.GOV/BUF

NYZ019-085-100000-
CHAUTAUQUA-SOUTHERN ERIE-
639 PM EST FRI JAN 8 2016

...HIGH WIND WATCH IN EFFECT FROM SATURDAY EVENING THROUGH SUNDAY
MORNING...

THIS HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK IS FOR PORTIONS OF WESTERN NEW YORK.

.DAY ONE...TONIGHT.

HAZARDOUS WEATHER IS NOT EXPECTED AT THIS TIME.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...SATURDAY THROUGH THURSDAY.

PLEASE LISTEN TO NOAA WEATHER RADIO OR GO TO WEATHER.GOV ON THE
INTERNET FOR MORE INFORMATION ABOUT THE FOLLOWING HAZARDS.

   HIGH WIND WATCH.

SOUTHEAST WINDS WITH GUSTS UP TO 60 MPH ARE POSSIBLE SATURDAY
NIGHT...MAINLY ALONG THE LAKE ERIE SHORELINE NEAR THE BASE OF THE
CHAUTAUQUA RIDGE. WINDS WILL THEN BECOME SOUTHWESTERLY SUNDAY AND
SUNDAY NIGHT...WITH GUSTS TO 50 MPH.

SOME LAKE EFFECT BANDS ARE EXPECTED ON MONDAY...MOVING FROM THE
SOUTHERN TIER NORTHWARD ACROSS SOUTHERN ERIE COUNTY BY MONDAY
EVENING. WHILE SOME WEATHER RELATED IMPACTS ARE EXPECTED WITH THIS
BAND...A FAR MORE IMPRESSIVE SETUP IS EXPECTED LATER TUESDAY INTO
WEDNESDAY...INCLUDING PORTIONS OF BUFFALO AND ITS SOUTHTOWNS.
THIS BAND MAY CONTINUE AT TIMES THROUGH THURSDAY BEFORE SNOW
BECOMES MORE FOCUSED ON THE SOUTHERN TIER TOWARD THE END OF THE
WEEK.

WHILE THE INITIAL SNOW ON MONDAY SHOULD NOT BE DOWNPLAYED...THE
MIDDLE PORTION OF THE WEEK HAS THE POTENTIAL TO BECOME A HIGH
IMPACT LAKE EFFECT EVENT WITH SEVERAL FEET OF SNOW POSSIBLY
ACCUMULATING IN NARROW REGIONS OVER RELATIVELY SHORT PERIODS OF
TIME.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

SPOTTER ACTIVATION IS NOT EXPECTED AT THIS TIME.

THIS PRODUCT...ALONG WITH OTHER WATCHES...WARNINGS...ADVISORIES...
AND STATEMENTS ISSUED BY THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE OFFICE IN
BUFFALO CAN BE FOUND ON THE INTERNET AT HTTP://WWW.WEATHER.GOV/BUF

NYZ020-100000-
CATTARAUGUS-
639 PM EST FRI JAN 8 2016

...FREEZING RAIN ADVISORY IN EFFECT UNTIL 1 AM EST SATURDAY...

THIS HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK IS FOR PORTIONS OF WESTERN NEW YORK.

.DAY ONE...TONIGHT.

PLEASE LISTEN TO NOAA WEATHER RADIO OR GO TO WEATHER.GOV ON THE
INTERNET FOR MORE INFORMATION ABOUT THE FOLLOWING HAZARDS.

   FREEZING RAIN ADVISORY.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...SATURDAY THROUGH THURSDAY.

STRONG SOUTHWEST WINDS WITH GUSTS UP TO 50 MPH ARE POSSIBLE
SUNDAY AND SUNDAY NIGHT.

SOME LAKE EFFECT BANDS ARE EXPECTED ON MONDAY...MOVING FROM THE
SOUTHERN TIER NORTHWARD ACROSS THE BUFFALO METRO AREA BY MONDAY
EVENING. WHILE SOME WEATHER RELATED IMPACTS ARE EXPECTED WITH
THIS BAND...A FAR MORE IMPRESSIVE SETUP IS EXPECTED LATER TUESDAY
INTO WEDNESDAY...INCLUDING PORTIONS OF BUFFALO AND AREA SUBURBS.
THIS BAND MAY CONTINUE AT TIMES THROUGH THURSDAY BEFORE SNOW
BECOMES MORE FOCUSED ON THE SOUTHERN TIER TOWARD THE END OF THE
WEEK.

WHILE THE INITIAL SNOW ON MONDAY SHOULD NOT BE DOWNPLAYED...THE
MIDDLE PORTION OF THE WEEK HAS THE POTENTIAL TO BECOME A HIGH
IMPACT LAKE EFFECT EVENT WITH SEVERAL FEET OF SNOW POSSIBLY
ACCUMULATING IN NARROW REGIONS OVER RELATIVELY SHORT PERIODS OF
TIME.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

SPOTTER ACTIVATION IS NOT EXPECTED AT THIS TIME.

THIS PRODUCT...ALONG WITH OTHER WATCHES...WARNINGS...ADVISORIES...
AND STATEMENTS ISSUED BY THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE OFFICE IN
BUFFALO CAN BE FOUND ON THE INTERNET AT HTTP://WWW.WEATHER.GOV/BUF

NYZ021-100000-
ALLEGANY-
639 PM EST FRI JAN 8 2016

...FREEZING RAIN ADVISORY IN EFFECT UNTIL 1 AM EST SATURDAY...

THIS HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK IS FOR PORTIONS OF WESTERN NEW YORK.

.DAY ONE...TONIGHT.

PLEASE LISTEN TO NOAA WEATHER RADIO OR GO TO WEATHER.GOV ON THE
INTERNET FOR MORE INFORMATION ABOUT THE FOLLOWING HAZARDS.

   FREEZING RAIN ADVISORY.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...SATURDAY THROUGH THURSDAY.

WHILE SIGNIFICANT LAKE EFFECT SNOW WILL BE ONGOING AT TIMES EAST
OF BOTH LAKE ERIE AND LAKE ONTARIO NEXT WEEK...MOST OF THE SNOW
IS EXPECTED TO REMAIN OUTSIDE THE GENESEE RIVER VALLEY AND
WESTERN FINGER LAKES REGIONS. HOWEVER...TRAVELERS MOVING THROUGH
THE INTERSTATE SYSTEM SHOULD BE PREPARED FOR RAPIDLY CHANGING
WEATHER CONDITIONS.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

SPOTTER ACTIVATION IS NOT EXPECTED AT THIS TIME.

THIS PRODUCT...ALONG WITH OTHER WATCHES...WARNINGS...ADVISORIES...
AND STATEMENTS ISSUED BY THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE OFFICE IN
BUFFALO CAN BE FOUND ON THE INTERNET AT HTTP://WWW.WEATHER.GOV/BUF

NYZ003>005-013-014-100000-
MONROE-WAYNE-NORTHERN CAYUGA-LIVINGSTON-ONTARIO-
639 PM EST FRI JAN 8 2016

THIS HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK IS FOR PORTIONS OF CENTRAL NEW YORK
AND WESTERN NEW YORK.

.DAY ONE...TONIGHT.

HAZARDOUS WEATHER IS NOT EXPECTED AT THIS TIME.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...SATURDAY THROUGH THURSDAY.

WHILE SIGNIFICANT LAKE EFFECT SNOW WILL BE ONGOING AT TIMES EAST
OF BOTH LAKE ERIE AND LAKE ONTARIO NEXT WEEK...MOST OF THE SNOW
IS EXPECTED TO REMAIN OUTSIDE THE GENESEE RIVER VALLEY AND
WESTERN FINGER LAKES REGIONS. HOWEVER...TRAVELERS MOVING THROUGH
THE INTERSTATE SYSTEM SHOULD BE PREPARED FOR RAPIDLY CHANGING
WEATHER CONDITIONS.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

SPOTTER ACTIVATION IS NOT EXPECTED AT THIS TIME.

THIS PRODUCT...ALONG WITH OTHER WATCHES...WARNINGS...ADVISORIES...
AND STATEMENTS ISSUED BY THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE OFFICE IN
BUFFALO CAN BE FOUND ON THE INTERNET AT HTTP://WWW.WEATHER.GOV/BUF

NYZ007-100000-
JEFFERSON-
639 PM EST FRI JAN 8 2016

...HIGH WIND WATCH IN EFFECT FROM LATE SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY
AFTERNOON...

THIS HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK IS FOR PORTIONS OF CENTRAL NEW YORK.

.DAY ONE...TONIGHT.

HAZARDOUS WEATHER IS NOT EXPECTED AT THIS TIME.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...SATURDAY THROUGH THURSDAY.

PLEASE LISTEN TO NOAA WEATHER RADIO OR GO TO WEATHER.GOV ON THE
INTERNET FOR MORE INFORMATION ABOUT THE FOLLOWING HAZARDS.

   HIGH WIND WATCH.

SOUTHEAST WINDS WITH GUSTS UP TO 60 MPH ARE POSSIBLE SATURDAY
NIGHT...MAINLY NEAR THE BASE OF THE TUG HILL PLATEAU. SOUTHWEST
WINDS WILL THEN DEVELOP SUNDAY AND SUNDAY NIGHT...WITH GUSTS TO 50
MPH.

SOME LAKE EFFECT BANDS ARE EXPECTED ON MONDAY...STARTING OVER
NORTHERN OSWEGO COUNTY AND SLOWLY MOVING NORTHWARD OVER THE TUG
HILL PLATEAU...AN EVENTUALLY WEAKENING AS IT MOVES THROUGH
WATERTOWN AND INTO THE ST LAWRENCE VALLEY. WHILE SOME WEATHER
RELATED IMPACTS ARE EXPECTED WITH THIS BAND...A FAR MORE
IMPRESSIVE SETUP IS EXPECTED LATER TUESDAY THROUGH THURSDAY...
PRIMARILY OVER THE TUG HILL PLATEAU. THIS BAND WILL EVENTUALLY
SHIFT A LITTLE SOUTHWARD AND FURTHER INTO OSWEGO COUNTY BY FRIDAY.

WHILE THE INITIAL SNOW ON MONDAY SHOULD NOT BE DOWNPLAYED...THE
MIDDLE PORTION OF THE WEEK HAS THE POTENTIAL TO BECOME A HIGH
IMPACT LAKE EFFECT EVENT WITH SEVERAL FEET OF SNOW POSSIBLY
ACCUMULATING IN NARROW REGIONS OVER RELATIVELY SHORT PERIODS OF
TIME.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

SPOTTER ACTIVATION IS NOT EXPECTED AT THIS TIME.

THIS PRODUCT...ALONG WITH OTHER WATCHES...WARNINGS...ADVISORIES...
AND STATEMENTS ISSUED BY THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE OFFICE IN
BUFFALO CAN BE FOUND ON THE INTERNET AT HTTP://WWW.WEATHER.GOV/BUF

NYZ008-100000-
LEWIS-
639 PM EST FRI JAN 8 2016

...WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY IN EFFECT FROM MIDNIGHT TONIGHT TO 6 AM
EST SATURDAY...
...HIGH WIND WATCH IN EFFECT FROM LATE SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY
AFTERNOON...

THIS HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK IS FOR PORTIONS OF CENTRAL NEW YORK.

.DAY ONE...TONIGHT.

PLEASE LISTEN TO NOAA WEATHER RADIO OR GO TO WEATHER.GOV ON THE
INTERNET FOR MORE INFORMATION ABOUT THE FOLLOWING HAZARDS.

   WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...SATURDAY THROUGH THURSDAY.

PLEASE LISTEN TO NOAA WEATHER RADIO OR GO TO WEATHER.GOV ON THE
INTERNET FOR MORE INFORMATION ABOUT THE FOLLOWING HAZARDS.

   HIGH WIND WATCH.

SOUTHEAST WINDS WITH GUSTS UP TO 60 MPH ARE POSSIBLE SATURDAY
NIGHT...MAINLY NEAR THE BASE OF THE TUG HILL PLATEAU. SOUTHWEST
WINDS WILL THEN DEVELOP SUNDAY AND SUNDAY NIGHT...WITH GUSTS TO 50
MPH.

SOME LAKE EFFECT BANDS ARE EXPECTED ON MONDAY...MOVING FROM SOUTH
TO NORTH ACROSS THE WESTERN PORTIONS OF THE TUG HILL PLATEAU...AN
EVENTUALLY WEAKENING AS IT MOVES THROUGH WATERTOWN AND INTO THE ST
LAWRENCE VALLEY. WHILE SOME WEATHER RELATED IMPACTS ARE EXPECTED
WITH THIS BAND...A FAR MORE IMPRESSIVE SETUP IS EXPECTED LATER
TUESDAY THROUGH THURSDAY...PRIMARILY OVER THE TUG HILL PLATEAU.
THIS BAND WILL EVENTUALLY SHIFT A LITTLE SOUTHWARD AND IMPACT
PRIMARILY THE SOUTHERN PORTION LEWIS COUNTY BY FRIDAY.

WHILE THE INITIAL SNOW ON MONDAY SHOULD NOT BE DOWNPLAYED...THE
MIDDLE PORTION OF THE WEEK HAS THE POTENTIAL TO BECOME A HIGH
IMPACT LAKE EFFECT EVENT WITH SEVERAL FEET OF SNOW POSSIBLY
ACCUMULATING IN NARROW REGIONS OVER RELATIVELY SHORT PERIODS OF
TIME.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

SPOTTER ACTIVATION IS NOT EXPECTED AT THIS TIME.

THIS PRODUCT...ALONG WITH OTHER WATCHES...WARNINGS...ADVISORIES...
AND STATEMENTS ISSUED BY THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE OFFICE IN
BUFFALO CAN BE FOUND ON THE INTERNET AT HTTP://WWW.WEATHER.GOV/BUF

NYZ006-100000-
OSWEGO-
639 PM EST FRI JAN 8 2016

THIS HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK IS FOR PORTIONS OF CENTRAL NEW YORK.

.DAY ONE...TONIGHT.

HAZARDOUS WEATHER IS NOT EXPECTED AT THIS TIME.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...SATURDAY THROUGH THURSDAY.

SOUTHWEST WINDS WILL DEVELOP SUNDAY AND SUNDAY NIGHT...WITH GUSTS
TO 50 MPH.

SOME LAKE EFFECT BANDS ARE EXPECTED ON MONDAY...MOVING FROM SOUTH
TO NORTH ACROSS THE WESTERN PORTIONS OF THE TUG HILL PLATEAU...AND
EVENTUALLY WEAKENING AS IT MOVES THROUGH WATERTOWN AND INTO THE
ST LAWRENCE VALLEY. WHILE SOME WEATHER RELATED IMPACTS ARE
EXPECTED WITH THIS BAND...A FAR MORE IMPRESSIVE SETUP IS EXPECTED
LATER TUESDAY THROUGH THURSDAY...PRIMARILY OVER THE TUG HILL
PLATEAU AND NORTHERN PORTIONS OF OSWEGO COUNTY. THIS BAND WILL
EVENTUALLY SHIFT A LITTLE SOUTHWARD AND IMPACT LARGER AREAS OF THE
COUNTY BY FRIDAY.

WHILE THE INITIAL SNOW ON MONDAY SHOULD NOT BE DOWNPLAYED...THE
MIDDLE PORTION OF THE WEEK HAS THE POTENTIAL TO BECOME A HIGH
IMPACT LAKE EFFECT EVENT WITH SEVERAL FEET OF SNOW POSSIBLY
ACCUMULATING IN NARROW REGIONS OVER RELATIVELY SHORT PERIODS OF
TIME.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

SPOTTER ACTIVATION IS NOT EXPECTED AT THIS TIME.

THIS PRODUCT...ALONG WITH OTHER WATCHES...WARNINGS...ADVISORIES...
AND STATEMENTS ISSUED BY THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE OFFICE IN
BUFFALO CAN BE FOUND ON THE INTERNET AT HTTP://WWW.WEATHER.GOV/BUF

LEZ020-040-041-LOZ030-042>045-062>065-SLZ022-024-100000-
UPPER NIAGARA RIVER AND BUFFALO HARBOR-
LAKE ERIE NEARSHORE WATERS FROM RIPLEY TO DUNKIRK-
LAKE ERIE NEARSHORE WATERS FROM DUNKIRK TO BUFFALO-
LOWER NIAGARA RIVER-
LAKE ONTARIO NEARSHORE WATERS FROM THE NIAGARA RIVER TO HAMLIN BEACH-
LAKE ONTARIO NEARSHORE WATERS FROM HAMLIN BEACH TO SODUS BAY-
LAKE ONTARIO NEARSHORE WATERS FROM SODUS BAY TO MEXICO BAY-
LAKE ONTARIO NEARSHORE WATERS FROM MEXICO BAY TO THE SAINT LAWRENCE
RIVER-
LAKE ONTARIO OPEN WATERS FROM THE NIAGARA RIVER TO HAMLIN BEACH-
LAKE ONTARIO OPEN WATERS FROM HAMLIN BEACH TO SODUS BAY-
LAKE ONTARIO OPEN WATERS FROM SODUS BAY TO MEXICO BAY-
LAKE ONTARIO OPEN WATERS FROM MEXICO BAY TO THE SAINT LAWRENCE RIVER-
SAINT LAWRENCE RIVER FROM CAPE VINCENT TO OGDENSBURG-
SAINT LAWRENCE RIVER FROM OGDENSBURG TO SAINT REGIS-
639 PM EST FRI JAN 8 2016

THIS HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK IS FOR THE NEW YORK WATERS OF LAKE
ERIE...LAKE ONTARIO...AND THE SAINT LAWRENCE RIVER.

.DAY ONE...TONIGHT.

HAZARDOUS WEATHER IS NOT EXPECTED AT THIS TIME.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...SATURDAY THROUGH THURSDAY.

GALE FORCE WINDS ARE POSSIBLE SUNDAY AFTERNOON AND NIGHT ACROSS
LAKES ERIE AND ONTARIO AS A STRENGTHENING AREA OF LOW PRESSURE
PASSES THROUGH THE CENTRAL GREAT LAKES AND SOUTHERN ONTARIO.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

SPOTTER ACTIVATION IS NOT EXPECTED AT THIS TIME.

THIS PRODUCT...ALONG WITH OTHER WATCHES...WARNINGS...ADVISORIES...
AND STATEMENTS ISSUED BY THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE OFFICE IN
BUFFALO CAN BE FOUND ON THE INTERNET AT HTTP://WWW.WEATHER.GOV/BUF

ZAFF/JJR