Alert archive / New York / Freezing Rain Advisories in 2016

Freezing Rain Advisory 6, NWS Buffalo, NY

December 25, 201616 counties in New York

NWS Buffalo, NY issued this freezing rain advisory at Dec 25, 2016, 12:51 PM EST for 16 counties in New York. It took effect at Dec 26, 2016, 4:00 AM EST. It was in force for 15 hr.

The area

The counties it named.

The facts

Issued
Dec 25, 2016, 12:51 PM EST (17:51 UTC)
In effect from
Dec 26, 2016, 4:00 AM EST
Expired
Dec 26, 2016, 6:48 PM EST
In force
15 hr
Issued by
NWS Buffalo, NY

Counties Allegany County, NY, Cattaraugus County, NY, Cayuga County, NY, Chautauqua County, NY, Erie County, NY, Genesee County, NY, Jefferson County, NY, Lewis County, NY, Livingston County, NY, Monroe County, NY, Niagara County, NY, Ontario County, NY, Orleans County, NY, Oswego County, NY, Wayne County, NY, Wyoming County, NY

The radar

The Buffalo radar (KBUF), 90 km from the middle of the area, began a volume at 17:54 UTC, the scan nearest the moment this went out.

Open the radar archive at this moment

The archived warnings, watches and discussions in force at that minute are drawn over the scan, this one among them.

The nearest sounding before it

Buffalo Intl Airport, NY (KBUF), launched 12:00Z, 5.9 hours before the alert went out and 87 km from the middle of its area. This is the routine balloon launch nearest before it, the air the forecaster had in hand, not a measurement taken for the alert.

Skew-T log-pSkew-T log-p diagram, Buffalo Intl Airport, NY at 12:00Z on 2016-12-25Temperature and dew point through the depth of the atmosphere, with the mixed-layer parcel. CAPE 0 joules per kilogram.LCL10008507005003002001001 km2 km3 km6 km9 km12 km15 km-30°-20°-10°0°10°20°30°40°
Temperature in red, dew point in green, the mixed-layer parcel dashed.
HodographHodograph, Buffalo Intl Airport, NY at 12:00Z on 2016-12-25The wind through the lowest 10 kilometers. Zero to 1 km storm-relative helicity -40 square meters per square second.1939587897117136Sfc1 km3 km6 km9 kmRMLM
The wind turning with height, colored by layer: ground to 1 km, 1 to 3 km, 3 to 6 km, 6 to 10 km.
Mixed-layer CAPE
0 J/kg
Mixed-layer CIN
No buoyant parcel
Mixed-layer LCL
780 m above ground
0-6 km bulk shear
69 kt
0-1 km storm-relative helicity
-40 m²/s²
0-3 km storm-relative helicity
-13 m²/s²
Significant tornado parameter
0.0
Supercell composite
0.0

Open this sounding in Storm Lab

The text

As transmitted.

081 
WWUS41 KBUF 251751
WSWBUF

URGENT - WINTER WEATHER MESSAGE
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BUFFALO NY
1251 PM EST SUN DEC 25 2016

NYZ001-002-010>012-019-085-260200-
/O.NEW.KBUF.ZR.Y.0006.161226T0900Z-161226T1400Z/
NIAGARA-ORLEANS-NORTHERN ERIE-GENESEE-WYOMING-CHAUTAUQUA-
SOUTHERN ERIE-
INCLUDING THE CITIES OF...NIAGARA FALLS...MEDINA...BUFFALO...
BATAVIA...WARSAW...JAMESTOWN...ORCHARD PARK...SPRINGVILLE
1251 PM EST SUN DEC 25 2016

...FREEZING RAIN ADVISORY IN EFFECT FROM 4 AM TO 9 AM EST
MONDAY...

THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE IN BUFFALO HAS ISSUED A FREEZING
RAIN ADVISORY...WHICH IS IN EFFECT FROM 4 AM TO 9 AM EST MONDAY.

* LOCATIONS...CHAUTAUQUA COUNTY AND ALL OF THE NIAGARA FRONTIER.

* TIMING...FROM LATE TONIGHT THROUGH LATE MONDAY MORNING.

* ACCUMULATIONS...ICE ACCUMULATING A FEW HUNDREDTHS OF AN INCH.

* IMPACTS...A BRIEF PERIOD OF FREEZING RAIN EARLY MONDAY MORNING
  WILL RESULT IN VERY SLIPPERY CONDITIONS ON UNTREATED PAVED
  SURFACES...INCLUDING ROADS AND SIDEWALKS. THE TIMING OF FREEZING
  RAIN WILL IMPACT THE MONDAY MORNING COMMUTE ON UNTREATED ROADS.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

A FREEZING RAIN ADVISORY IS ISSUED WHEN ICING IS EXPECTED IN THE
AFFECTED AREAS, BUT NOT ENOUGH TO DISRUPT TRAVEL OR DAMAGE TREES
AND POWER LINES. INSTEAD, PATCHES OF ICE WILL CAUSE SLICK SPOTS
ON ROADWAYS AND SIDEWALKS. WALKING AND DRIVING COULD THEREFORE BE
DIFFICULT, BUT NOT IMPOSSIBLE.

STAY TUNED TO NOAA WEATHER RADIO OR YOUR FAVORITE SOURCE OF
WEATHER INFORMATION FOR THE LATEST UPDATES. ADDITIONAL DETAILS
CAN ALSO BE FOUND AT WWW.WEATHER.GOV/BUFFALO.

REPORT ICE ACCUMULATION TO THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE IN
BUFFALO BY SENDING AN EMAIL TO BUFSTORM.REPORT@NOAA.GOV...POSTING
TO THE NWS BUFFALO FACEBOOK PAGE...OR TWEET...USING THE HASHTAG
BUFWX

&&

$$

NYZ020-021-260200-
/O.NEW.KBUF.ZR.Y.0006.161226T0900Z-161226T1600Z/
CATTARAUGUS-ALLEGANY-
INCLUDING THE CITIES OF...OLEAN...WELLSVILLE
1251 PM EST SUN DEC 25 2016

...FREEZING RAIN ADVISORY IN EFFECT FROM 4 AM TO 11 AM EST
MONDAY...

THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE IN BUFFALO HAS ISSUED A FREEZING
RAIN ADVISORY...WHICH IS IN EFFECT FROM 4 AM TO 11 AM EST MONDAY.

* LOCATIONS...CATTARAUGUS AND ALLEGANY COUNTIES.

* TIMING...FROM LATE TONIGHT THROUGH LATE MONDAY MORNING.

* ACCUMULATIONS...ICE ACCUMULATING A FEW HUNDREDTHS OF AN INCH.

* IMPACTS...A BRIEF PERIOD OF FREEZING RAIN EARLY MONDAY MORNING
  WILL RESULT IN VERY SLIPPERY CONDITIONS ON UNTREATED PAVED
  SURFACES...INCLUDING ROADS AND SIDEWALKS. THE TIMING OF FREEZING
  RAIN WILL IMPACT THE MONDAY MORNING COMMUTE ON UNTREATED ROADS.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

A FREEZING RAIN ADVISORY IS ISSUED WHEN ICING IS EXPECTED IN THE
AFFECTED AREAS, BUT NOT ENOUGH TO DISRUPT TRAVEL OR DAMAGE TREES
AND POWER LINES. INSTEAD, PATCHES OF ICE WILL CAUSE SLICK SPOTS
ON ROADWAYS AND SIDEWALKS. WALKING AND DRIVING COULD THEREFORE BE
DIFFICULT, BUT NOT IMPOSSIBLE.

STAY TUNED TO NOAA WEATHER RADIO OR YOUR FAVORITE SOURCE OF
WEATHER INFORMATION FOR THE LATEST UPDATES. ADDITIONAL DETAILS
CAN ALSO BE FOUND AT WWW.WEATHER.GOV/BUFFALO.

REPORT ICE ACCUMULATION TO THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE IN
BUFFALO BY SENDING AN EMAIL TO BUFSTORM.REPORT@NOAA.GOV...POSTING
TO THE NWS BUFFALO FACEBOOK PAGE...OR TWEET...USING THE HASHTAG
BUFWX

&&

$$

NYZ003>005-013-014-260200-
/O.NEW.KBUF.ZR.Y.0006.161226T1100Z-161226T1600Z/
MONROE-WAYNE-NORTHERN CAYUGA-LIVINGSTON-ONTARIO-
INCLUDING THE CITIES OF...ROCHESTER...NEWARK...FAIR HAVEN...
GENESEO...CANANDAIGUA
1251 PM EST SUN DEC 25 2016

...FREEZING RAIN ADVISORY IN EFFECT FROM 6 AM TO 11 AM EST
MONDAY...

THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE IN BUFFALO HAS ISSUED A FREEZING
RAIN ADVISORY...WHICH IS IN EFFECT FROM 6 AM TO 11 AM EST MONDAY.

* LOCATIONS...MONROE...LIVINGSTON...ONTARIO...WAYNE...AND NORTHERN
  CAYUGA COUNTIES.

* TIMING...FROM LATE TONIGHT THROUGH LATE MONDAY MORNING.

* ACCUMULATIONS...ICE ACCUMULATING A FEW HUNDREDTHS OF AN INCH.

* IMPACTS...A BRIEF PERIOD OF FREEZING RAIN EARLY MONDAY MORNING
  WILL RESULT IN VERY SLIPPERY CONDITIONS ON UNTREATED PAVED
  SURFACES...INCLUDING ROADS AND SIDEWALKS. THE TIMING OF FREEZING
  RAIN WILL IMPACT THE MONDAY MORNING COMMUTE ON UNTREATED ROADS.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

A FREEZING RAIN ADVISORY IS ISSUED WHEN ICING IS EXPECTED IN THE
AFFECTED AREAS, BUT NOT ENOUGH TO DISRUPT TRAVEL OR DAMAGE TREES
AND POWER LINES. INSTEAD, PATCHES OF ICE WILL CAUSE SLICK SPOTS
ON ROADWAYS AND SIDEWALKS. WALKING AND DRIVING COULD THEREFORE BE
DIFFICULT, BUT NOT IMPOSSIBLE.

STAY TUNED TO NOAA WEATHER RADIO OR YOUR FAVORITE SOURCE OF
WEATHER INFORMATION FOR THE LATEST UPDATES. ADDITIONAL DETAILS
CAN ALSO BE FOUND AT WWW.WEATHER.GOV/BUFFALO.

REPORT ICE ACCUMULATION TO THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE IN
BUFFALO BY SENDING AN EMAIL TO BUFSTORM.REPORT@NOAA.GOV...POSTING
TO THE NWS BUFFALO FACEBOOK PAGE...OR TWEET...USING THE HASHTAG
BUFWX

&&

$$

NYZ006>008-260200-
/O.NEW.KBUF.ZR.Y.0006.161226T1400Z-161226T2100Z/
OSWEGO-JEFFERSON-LEWIS-
INCLUDING THE CITIES OF...OSWEGO...WATERTOWN...LOWVILLE
1251 PM EST SUN DEC 25 2016

...FREEZING RAIN ADVISORY IN EFFECT FROM 9 AM TO 4 PM EST
MONDAY...

THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE IN BUFFALO HAS ISSUED A FREEZING
RAIN ADVISORY...WHICH IS IN EFFECT FROM 9 AM TO 4 PM EST MONDAY.

* LOCATIONS...OSWEGO...JEFFERSON...AND LEWIS COUNTIES.

* TIMING...FROM LATE MONDAY MORNING THROUGH LATE MONDAY 
  AFTERNOON.

* ACCUMULATIONS...ICE ACCUMULATING UP TO ONE TENTH OF AN INCH.

* IMPACTS...A BRIEF PERIOD OF FREEZING RAIN FROM LATE MONDAY
  MORNING THROUGH MID AFTERNOON WILL RESULT IN VERY SLIPPERY
  CONDITIONS ON UNTREATED PAVED SURFACES...INCLUDING ROADS AND
  SIDEWALKS.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

A FREEZING RAIN ADVISORY IS ISSUED WHEN ICING IS EXPECTED IN THE
AFFECTED AREAS, BUT NOT ENOUGH TO DISRUPT TRAVEL OR DAMAGE TREES
AND POWER LINES. INSTEAD, PATCHES OF ICE WILL CAUSE SLICK SPOTS
ON ROADWAYS AND SIDEWALKS. WALKING AND DRIVING COULD THEREFORE BE
DIFFICULT, BUT NOT IMPOSSIBLE.

STAY TUNED TO NOAA WEATHER RADIO OR YOUR FAVORITE SOURCE OF
WEATHER INFORMATION FOR THE LATEST UPDATES. ADDITIONAL DETAILS
CAN ALSO BE FOUND AT WWW.WEATHER.GOV/BUFFALO.

REPORT ICE ACCUMULATION TO THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE IN
BUFFALO BY SENDING AN EMAIL TO BUFSTORM.REPORT@NOAA.GOV...POSTING
TO THE NWS BUFFALO FACEBOOK PAGE...OR TWEET...USING THE HASHTAG
BUFWX

&&

$$

HITCHCOCK
6 follow-up statements
157 
WWUS41 KBUF 251947
WSWBUF

URGENT - WINTER WEATHER MESSAGE
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BUFFALO NY
247 PM EST SUN DEC 25 2016

NYZ001-002-010>012-019-085-260400-
/O.CON.KBUF.ZR.Y.0006.161226T0900Z-161226T1400Z/
NIAGARA-ORLEANS-NORTHERN ERIE-GENESEE-WYOMING-CHAUTAUQUA-
SOUTHERN ERIE-
INCLUDING THE CITIES OF...NIAGARA FALLS...MEDINA...BUFFALO...
BATAVIA...WARSAW...JAMESTOWN...ORCHARD PARK...SPRINGVILLE
247 PM EST SUN DEC 25 2016

...FREEZING RAIN ADVISORY REMAINS IN EFFECT FROM 4 AM TO 9 AM EST
MONDAY...

* LOCATIONS...CHAUTAUQUA COUNTY AND ALL OF THE NIAGARA FRONTIER.

* TIMING...FROM LATE TONIGHT THROUGH LATE MONDAY MORNING.

* ACCUMULATIONS...ICE ACCUMULATING A FEW HUNDREDTHS OF AN INCH.

* IMPACTS...A BRIEF PERIOD OF FREEZING RAIN EARLY MONDAY MORNING 
  WILL RESULT IN VERY SLIPPERY CONDITIONS ON UNTREATED PAVED 
  SURFACES...INCLUDING ROADS AND SIDEWALKS. THE TIMING OF 
  FREEZING RAIN WILL IMPACT THE MONDAY MORNING COMMUTE ON 
  UNTREATED ROADS.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

A FREEZING RAIN ADVISORY IS ISSUED WHEN ICING IS EXPECTED IN THE
AFFECTED AREAS...BUT NOT ENOUGH TO DISRUPT TRAVEL OR DAMAGE
TREES AND POWER LINES. INSTEAD...PATCHES OF ICE WILL CAUSE SLICK
SPOTS ON ROADWAYS AND SIDEWALKS. WALKING AND DRIVING COULD
THEREFORE BE DIFFICULT...BUT NOT IMPOSSIBLE.

STAY TUNED TO NOAA WEATHER RADIO OR YOUR FAVORITE SOURCE OF
WEATHER INFORMATION FOR THE LATEST UPDATES. ADDITIONAL DETAILS
CAN ALSO BE FOUND AT WWW.WEATHER.GOV/BUFFALO.

REPORT ICE ACCUMULATION TO THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE IN
BUFFALO BY SENDING AN EMAIL TO BUFSTORM.REPORT@NOAA.GOV...POSTING
TO THE NWS BUFFALO FACEBOOK PAGE...OR TWEET...USING THE HASHTAG
BUFWX

&&

$$

NYZ020-021-260400-
/O.CON.KBUF.ZR.Y.0006.161226T0900Z-161226T1600Z/
CATTARAUGUS-ALLEGANY-
INCLUDING THE CITIES OF...OLEAN...WELLSVILLE
247 PM EST SUN DEC 25 2016

...FREEZING RAIN ADVISORY REMAINS IN EFFECT FROM 4 AM TO 11 AM
EST MONDAY...

* LOCATIONS...CATTARAUGUS AND ALLEGANY COUNTIES.

* TIMING...FROM LATE TONIGHT THROUGH LATE MONDAY MORNING.

* ACCUMULATIONS...ICE ACCUMULATING A FEW HUNDREDTHS OF AN INCH.

* IMPACTS...A BRIEF PERIOD OF FREEZING RAIN EARLY MONDAY MORNING 
  WILL RESULT IN VERY SLIPPERY CONDITIONS ON UNTREATED PAVED 
  SURFACES...INCLUDING ROADS AND SIDEWALKS. THE TIMING OF 
  FREEZING RAIN WILL IMPACT THE MONDAY MORNING COMMUTE ON 
  UNTREATED ROADS.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

A FREEZING RAIN ADVISORY IS ISSUED WHEN ICING IS EXPECTED IN THE
AFFECTED AREAS...BUT NOT ENOUGH TO DISRUPT TRAVEL OR DAMAGE
TREES AND POWER LINES. INSTEAD...PATCHES OF ICE WILL CAUSE SLICK
SPOTS ON ROADWAYS AND SIDEWALKS. WALKING AND DRIVING COULD
THEREFORE BE DIFFICULT...BUT NOT IMPOSSIBLE.

STAY TUNED TO NOAA WEATHER RADIO OR YOUR FAVORITE SOURCE OF
WEATHER INFORMATION FOR THE LATEST UPDATES. ADDITIONAL DETAILS
CAN ALSO BE FOUND AT WWW.WEATHER.GOV/BUFFALO.

REPORT ICE ACCUMULATION TO THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE IN
BUFFALO BY SENDING AN EMAIL TO BUFSTORM.REPORT@NOAA.GOV...POSTING
TO THE NWS BUFFALO FACEBOOK PAGE...OR TWEET...USING THE HASHTAG
BUFWX

&&

$$

NYZ003>005-013-014-260400-
/O.CON.KBUF.ZR.Y.0006.161226T1100Z-161226T1600Z/
MONROE-WAYNE-NORTHERN CAYUGA-LIVINGSTON-ONTARIO-
INCLUDING THE CITIES OF...ROCHESTER...NEWARK...FAIR HAVEN...
GENESEO...CANANDAIGUA
247 PM EST SUN DEC 25 2016

...FREEZING RAIN ADVISORY REMAINS IN EFFECT FROM 6 AM TO 11 AM
EST MONDAY...

* LOCATIONS...MONROE...LIVINGSTON...ONTARIO...WAYNE...AND 
  NORTHERN CAYUGA COUNTIES.

* TIMING...FROM LATE TONIGHT THROUGH LATE MONDAY MORNING.

* ACCUMULATIONS...ICE ACCUMULATING A FEW HUNDREDTHS OF AN INCH.

* IMPACTS...A BRIEF PERIOD OF FREEZING RAIN EARLY MONDAY MORNING 
  WILL RESULT IN VERY SLIPPERY CONDITIONS ON UNTREATED PAVED 
  SURFACES...INCLUDING ROADS AND SIDEWALKS. THE TIMING OF 
  FREEZING RAIN WILL IMPACT THE MONDAY MORNING COMMUTE ON 
  UNTREATED ROADS.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

A FREEZING RAIN ADVISORY IS ISSUED WHEN ICING IS EXPECTED IN THE
AFFECTED AREAS...BUT NOT ENOUGH TO DISRUPT TRAVEL OR DAMAGE
TREES AND POWER LINES. INSTEAD...PATCHES OF ICE WILL CAUSE SLICK
SPOTS ON ROADWAYS AND SIDEWALKS. WALKING AND DRIVING COULD
THEREFORE BE DIFFICULT...BUT NOT IMPOSSIBLE.

STAY TUNED TO NOAA WEATHER RADIO OR YOUR FAVORITE SOURCE OF
WEATHER INFORMATION FOR THE LATEST UPDATES. ADDITIONAL DETAILS
CAN ALSO BE FOUND AT WWW.WEATHER.GOV/BUFFALO.

REPORT ICE ACCUMULATION TO THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE IN
BUFFALO BY SENDING AN EMAIL TO BUFSTORM.REPORT@NOAA.GOV...POSTING
TO THE NWS BUFFALO FACEBOOK PAGE...OR TWEET...USING THE HASHTAG
BUFWX

&&

$$

NYZ006>008-260400-
/O.CON.KBUF.ZR.Y.0006.161226T1400Z-161226T2100Z/
OSWEGO-JEFFERSON-LEWIS-
INCLUDING THE CITIES OF...OSWEGO...WATERTOWN...LOWVILLE
247 PM EST SUN DEC 25 2016

...FREEZING RAIN ADVISORY REMAINS IN EFFECT FROM 9 AM TO 4 PM EST
MONDAY...

* LOCATIONS...OSWEGO...JEFFERSON...AND LEWIS COUNTIES.

* TIMING...FROM LATE MONDAY MORNING THROUGH LATE MONDAY 
  AFTERNOON.

* ACCUMULATIONS...ICE ACCUMULATING UP TO ONE TENTH OF AN INCH.

* IMPACTS...A BRIEF PERIOD OF FREEZING RAIN FROM LATE MONDAY 
  MORNING THROUGH MID AFTERNOON WILL RESULT IN VERY SLIPPERY 
  CONDITIONS ON UNTREATED PAVED SURFACES...INCLUDING ROADS AND 
  SIDEWALKS.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

A FREEZING RAIN ADVISORY IS ISSUED WHEN ICING IS EXPECTED IN THE
AFFECTED AREAS...BUT NOT ENOUGH TO DISRUPT TRAVEL OR DAMAGE
TREES AND POWER LINES. INSTEAD...PATCHES OF ICE WILL CAUSE SLICK
SPOTS ON ROADWAYS AND SIDEWALKS. WALKING AND DRIVING COULD
THEREFORE BE DIFFICULT...BUT NOT IMPOSSIBLE.

STAY TUNED TO NOAA WEATHER RADIO OR YOUR FAVORITE SOURCE OF
WEATHER INFORMATION FOR THE LATEST UPDATES. ADDITIONAL DETAILS
CAN ALSO BE FOUND AT WWW.WEATHER.GOV/BUFFALO.

REPORT ICE ACCUMULATION TO THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE IN
BUFFALO BY SENDING AN EMAIL TO BUFSTORM.REPORT@NOAA.GOV...POSTING
TO THE NWS BUFFALO FACEBOOK PAGE...OR TWEET...USING THE HASHTAG
BUFWX

&&

$$

HITCHCOCK
844 
WWUS41 KBUF 260210
WSWBUF

URGENT - WINTER WEATHER MESSAGE
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BUFFALO NY
910 PM EST SUN DEC 25 2016

NYZ001-002-010>012-019-085-261015-
/O.CON.KBUF.ZR.Y.0006.161226T0900Z-161226T1400Z/
NIAGARA-ORLEANS-NORTHERN ERIE-GENESEE-WYOMING-CHAUTAUQUA-
SOUTHERN ERIE-
INCLUDING THE CITIES OF...NIAGARA FALLS...MEDINA...BUFFALO...
BATAVIA...WARSAW...JAMESTOWN...ORCHARD PARK...SPRINGVILLE
910 PM EST SUN DEC 25 2016

...FREEZING RAIN ADVISORY REMAINS IN EFFECT FROM 4 AM TO 9 AM EST
MONDAY...

* LOCATIONS...CHAUTAUQUA COUNTY AND ALL OF THE NIAGARA FRONTIER.

* TIMING...FROM LATE TONIGHT THROUGH LATE MONDAY MORNING.

* ACCUMULATIONS...ICE ACCUMULATING A FEW HUNDREDTHS OF AN INCH.

* IMPACTS...A BRIEF PERIOD OF FREEZING RAIN EARLY MONDAY MORNING 
  WILL RESULT IN VERY SLIPPERY CONDITIONS ON UNTREATED PAVED 
  SURFACES...INCLUDING ROADS AND SIDEWALKS. THE TIMING OF 
  FREEZING RAIN WILL IMPACT THE MONDAY MORNING COMMUTE ON 
  UNTREATED ROADS.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

A FREEZING RAIN ADVISORY IS ISSUED WHEN ICING IS EXPECTED IN THE
AFFECTED AREAS...BUT NOT ENOUGH TO DISRUPT TRAVEL OR DAMAGE TREES
AND POWER LINES. INSTEAD...PATCHES OF ICE WILL CAUSE SLICK SPOTS
ON ROADWAYS AND SIDEWALKS. WALKING AND DRIVING COULD THEREFORE BE
DIFFICULT...BUT NOT IMPOSSIBLE.

STAY TUNED TO NOAA WEATHER RADIO OR YOUR FAVORITE SOURCE OF
WEATHER INFORMATION FOR THE LATEST UPDATES. ADDITIONAL DETAILS
CAN ALSO BE FOUND AT WWW.WEATHER.GOV/BUFFALO.

REPORT ICE ACCUMULATION TO THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE IN
BUFFALO BY SENDING AN EMAIL TO BUFSTORM.REPORT@NOAA.GOV...POSTING
TO THE NWS BUFFALO FACEBOOK PAGE...OR TWEET...USING THE HASHTAG
BUFWX

&&

$$

NYZ020-021-261015-
/O.CON.KBUF.ZR.Y.0006.161226T0900Z-161226T1600Z/
CATTARAUGUS-ALLEGANY-
INCLUDING THE CITIES OF...OLEAN...WELLSVILLE
910 PM EST SUN DEC 25 2016

...FREEZING RAIN ADVISORY REMAINS IN EFFECT FROM 4 AM TO 11 AM
EST MONDAY...

* LOCATIONS...CATTARAUGUS AND ALLEGANY COUNTIES.

* TIMING...FROM LATE TONIGHT THROUGH LATE MONDAY MORNING.

* ACCUMULATIONS...ICE ACCUMULATING A FEW HUNDREDTHS OF AN INCH.

* IMPACTS...A BRIEF PERIOD OF FREEZING RAIN EARLY MONDAY MORNING 
  WILL RESULT IN VERY SLIPPERY CONDITIONS ON UNTREATED PAVED 
  SURFACES...INCLUDING ROADS AND SIDEWALKS. THE TIMING OF 
  FREEZING RAIN WILL IMPACT THE MONDAY MORNING COMMUTE ON 
  UNTREATED ROADS.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

A FREEZING RAIN ADVISORY IS ISSUED WHEN ICING IS EXPECTED IN THE
AFFECTED AREAS...BUT NOT ENOUGH TO DISRUPT TRAVEL OR DAMAGE TREES
AND POWER LINES. INSTEAD...PATCHES OF ICE WILL CAUSE SLICK SPOTS
ON ROADWAYS AND SIDEWALKS. WALKING AND DRIVING COULD THEREFORE BE
DIFFICULT...BUT NOT IMPOSSIBLE.

STAY TUNED TO NOAA WEATHER RADIO OR YOUR FAVORITE SOURCE OF
WEATHER INFORMATION FOR THE LATEST UPDATES. ADDITIONAL DETAILS
CAN ALSO BE FOUND AT WWW.WEATHER.GOV/BUFFALO.

REPORT ICE ACCUMULATION TO THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE IN
BUFFALO BY SENDING AN EMAIL TO BUFSTORM.REPORT@NOAA.GOV...POSTING
TO THE NWS BUFFALO FACEBOOK PAGE...OR TWEET...USING THE HASHTAG
BUFWX

&&

$$

NYZ003>005-013-014-261015-
/O.CON.KBUF.ZR.Y.0006.161226T1100Z-161226T1600Z/
MONROE-WAYNE-NORTHERN CAYUGA-LIVINGSTON-ONTARIO-
INCLUDING THE CITIES OF...ROCHESTER...NEWARK...FAIR HAVEN...
GENESEO...CANANDAIGUA
910 PM EST SUN DEC 25 2016

...FREEZING RAIN ADVISORY REMAINS IN EFFECT FROM 6 AM TO 11 AM
EST MONDAY...

* LOCATIONS...MONROE...LIVINGSTON...ONTARIO...WAYNE...AND 
  NORTHERN CAYUGA COUNTIES.

* TIMING...FROM LATE TONIGHT THROUGH LATE MONDAY MORNING.

* ACCUMULATIONS...ICE ACCUMULATING A FEW HUNDREDTHS OF AN INCH.

* IMPACTS...A BRIEF PERIOD OF FREEZING RAIN EARLY MONDAY MORNING 
  WILL RESULT IN VERY SLIPPERY CONDITIONS ON UNTREATED PAVED 
  SURFACES...INCLUDING ROADS AND SIDEWALKS. THE TIMING OF 
  FREEZING RAIN WILL IMPACT THE MONDAY MORNING COMMUTE ON 
  UNTREATED ROADS.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

A FREEZING RAIN ADVISORY IS ISSUED WHEN ICING IS EXPECTED IN THE
AFFECTED AREAS...BUT NOT ENOUGH TO DISRUPT TRAVEL OR DAMAGE TREES
AND POWER LINES. INSTEAD...PATCHES OF ICE WILL CAUSE SLICK SPOTS
ON ROADWAYS AND SIDEWALKS. WALKING AND DRIVING COULD THEREFORE BE
DIFFICULT...BUT NOT IMPOSSIBLE.

STAY TUNED TO NOAA WEATHER RADIO OR YOUR FAVORITE SOURCE OF
WEATHER INFORMATION FOR THE LATEST UPDATES. ADDITIONAL DETAILS
CAN ALSO BE FOUND AT WWW.WEATHER.GOV/BUFFALO.

REPORT ICE ACCUMULATION TO THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE IN
BUFFALO BY SENDING AN EMAIL TO BUFSTORM.REPORT@NOAA.GOV...POSTING
TO THE NWS BUFFALO FACEBOOK PAGE...OR TWEET...USING THE HASHTAG
BUFWX

&&

$$

NYZ006>008-261015-
/O.CON.KBUF.ZR.Y.0006.161226T1400Z-161226T2100Z/
OSWEGO-JEFFERSON-LEWIS-
INCLUDING THE CITIES OF...OSWEGO...WATERTOWN...LOWVILLE
910 PM EST SUN DEC 25 2016

...FREEZING RAIN ADVISORY REMAINS IN EFFECT FROM 9 AM TO 4 PM EST
MONDAY...

* LOCATIONS...OSWEGO...JEFFERSON...AND LEWIS COUNTIES.

* TIMING...FROM LATE MONDAY MORNING THROUGH LATE MONDAY 
  AFTERNOON.

* ACCUMULATIONS...ICE ACCUMULATING UP TO ONE TENTH OF AN INCH.

* IMPACTS...A BRIEF PERIOD OF FREEZING RAIN FROM LATE MONDAY 
  MORNING THROUGH MID AFTERNOON WILL RESULT IN VERY SLIPPERY 
  CONDITIONS ON UNTREATED PAVED SURFACES...INCLUDING ROADS AND 
  SIDEWALKS.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

A FREEZING RAIN ADVISORY IS ISSUED WHEN ICING IS EXPECTED IN THE
AFFECTED AREAS...BUT NOT ENOUGH TO DISRUPT TRAVEL OR DAMAGE TREES
AND POWER LINES. INSTEAD...PATCHES OF ICE WILL CAUSE SLICK SPOTS
ON ROADWAYS AND SIDEWALKS. WALKING AND DRIVING COULD THEREFORE BE
DIFFICULT...BUT NOT IMPOSSIBLE.

STAY TUNED TO NOAA WEATHER RADIO OR YOUR FAVORITE SOURCE OF
WEATHER INFORMATION FOR THE LATEST UPDATES. ADDITIONAL DETAILS
CAN ALSO BE FOUND AT WWW.WEATHER.GOV/BUFFALO.

REPORT ICE ACCUMULATION TO THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE IN
BUFFALO BY SENDING AN EMAIL TO BUFSTORM.REPORT@NOAA.GOV...POSTING
TO THE NWS BUFFALO FACEBOOK PAGE...OR TWEET...USING THE HASHTAG
BUFWX

&&

$$
245 
WWUS41 KBUF 260827
WSWBUF

URGENT - WINTER WEATHER MESSAGE
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BUFFALO NY
327 AM EST MON DEC 26 2016

NYZ003>005-013-014-260930-
/O.CAN.KBUF.ZR.Y.0006.161226T1100Z-161226T1600Z/
MONROE-WAYNE-NORTHERN CAYUGA-LIVINGSTON-ONTARIO-
INCLUDING THE CITIES OF...ROCHESTER...NEWARK...FAIR HAVEN...
GENESEO...CANANDAIGUA
327 AM EST MON DEC 26 2016

...FREEZING RAIN ADVISORY IS CANCELLED...

THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE IN BUFFALO HAS CANCELLED THE
FREEZING RAIN ADVISORY.

TEMPERATURES ARE EXPECTED TO WARM ABOVE FREEZING BEFORE THE ONSET
OF RAIN ACROSS THE AREA...THUS FREEZING RAIN IS NO LONGER EXPECTED.

$$

NYZ001-002-010>012-019-085-260930-
/O.CAN.KBUF.ZR.Y.0006.161226T0900Z-161226T1400Z/
NIAGARA-ORLEANS-NORTHERN ERIE-GENESEE-WYOMING-CHAUTAUQUA-
SOUTHERN ERIE-
INCLUDING THE CITIES OF...NIAGARA FALLS...MEDINA...BUFFALO...
BATAVIA...WARSAW...JAMESTOWN...ORCHARD PARK...SPRINGVILLE
327 AM EST MON DEC 26 2016

...FREEZING RAIN ADVISORY IS CANCELLED...

THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE IN BUFFALO HAS CANCELLED THE
FREEZING RAIN ADVISORY.

TEMPERATURES ARE EXPECTED TO WARM ABOVE FREEZING BEFORE THE ONSET
OF RAIN ACROSS THE AREA...THUS FREEZING RAIN IS NO LONGER EXPECTED.

$$

NYZ020-021-260930-
/O.CAN.KBUF.ZR.Y.0006.161226T0900Z-161226T1600Z/
CATTARAUGUS-ALLEGANY-
INCLUDING THE CITIES OF...OLEAN...WELLSVILLE
327 AM EST MON DEC 26 2016

...FREEZING RAIN ADVISORY IS CANCELLED...

THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE IN BUFFALO HAS CANCELLED THE
FREEZING RAIN ADVISORY.

TEMPERATURES ACROSS THE AREA ARE WARMING ABOVE FREEZING AT THIS
TIME AND FREEZING RAIN IS NO LONGER EXPECTED.

$$

NYZ006>008-261630-
/O.CON.KBUF.ZR.Y.0006.161226T1400Z-161226T2100Z/
OSWEGO-JEFFERSON-LEWIS-
INCLUDING THE CITIES OF...OSWEGO...WATERTOWN...LOWVILLE
327 AM EST MON DEC 26 2016

...FREEZING RAIN ADVISORY REMAINS IN EFFECT FROM 9 AM THIS
MORNING TO 4 PM EST THIS AFTERNOON...

* LOCATIONS...OSWEGO...JEFFERSON...AND LEWIS COUNTIES.

* TIMING...FROM LATE THIS MORNING THROUGH LATE THIS AFTERNOON.

* ACCUMULATIONS...ICE ACCUMULATING TO A FEW HUNDREDTHS OF AN INCH.

* IMPACTS...A BRIEF PERIOD OF FREEZING RAIN FROM LATE MONDAY 
  MORNING THROUGH MID AFTERNOON WILL RESULT IN VERY SLIPPERY 
  CONDITIONS ON UNTREATED PAVED SURFACES...INCLUDING ROADS AND 
  SIDEWALKS.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

A FREEZING RAIN ADVISORY IS ISSUED WHEN ICING IS EXPECTED IN THE
AFFECTED AREAS...BUT NOT ENOUGH TO DISRUPT TRAVEL OR DAMAGE TREES
AND POWER LINES. INSTEAD...PATCHES OF ICE WILL CAUSE SLICK SPOTS
ON ROADWAYS AND SIDEWALKS. WALKING AND DRIVING COULD THEREFORE BE
DIFFICULT...BUT NOT IMPOSSIBLE.

STAY TUNED TO NOAA WEATHER RADIO OR YOUR FAVORITE SOURCE OF
WEATHER INFORMATION FOR THE LATEST UPDATES. ADDITIONAL DETAILS
CAN ALSO BE FOUND AT WWW.WEATHER.GOV/BUFFALO.

REPORT ICE ACCUMULATION TO THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE IN
BUFFALO BY SENDING AN EMAIL TO BUFSTORM.REPORT@NOAA.GOV...POSTING
TO THE NWS BUFFALO FACEBOOK PAGE...OR TWEET...USING THE HASHTAG
BUFWX

&&

$$

WOOD
758 
WWUS41 KBUF 261437
WSWBUF

URGENT - WINTER WEATHER MESSAGE
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BUFFALO NY
937 AM EST MON DEC 26 2016

NYZ006>008-262100-
/O.CON.KBUF.ZR.Y.0006.000000T0000Z-161226T2100Z/
OSWEGO-JEFFERSON-LEWIS-
INCLUDING THE CITIES OF...OSWEGO...WATERTOWN...LOWVILLE
937 AM EST MON DEC 26 2016

...FREEZING RAIN ADVISORY REMAINS IN EFFECT UNTIL 4 PM EST THIS
AFTERNOON...

* LOCATIONS...OSWEGO...JEFFERSON...AND LEWIS COUNTIES.

* TIMING...THROUGH LATE THIS AFTERNOON.

* ACCUMULATIONS...ICE ACCUMULATING TO A FEW HUNDREDTHS OF AN INCH.

* IMPACTS...A BRIEF PERIOD OF FREEZING RAIN FROM LATE MORNING
  THROUGH THE AFTERNOON HOURS WILL RESULT IN VERY SLIPPERY
  CONDITIONS ON UNTREATED PAVED SURFACES...INCLUDING ROADS AND
  SIDEWALKS.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

A FREEZING RAIN ADVISORY IS ISSUED WHEN ICING IS EXPECTED IN THE
AFFECTED AREAS...BUT NOT ENOUGH TO DISRUPT TRAVEL OR DAMAGE TREES
AND POWER LINES. INSTEAD...PATCHES OF ICE WILL CAUSE SLICK SPOTS
ON ROADWAYS AND SIDEWALKS. WALKING AND DRIVING COULD THEREFORE BE
DIFFICULT...BUT NOT IMPOSSIBLE.

STAY TUNED TO NOAA WEATHER RADIO OR YOUR FAVORITE SOURCE OF
WEATHER INFORMATION FOR THE LATEST UPDATES. ADDITIONAL DETAILS
CAN ALSO BE FOUND AT WWW.WEATHER.GOV/BUFFALO.

REPORT ICE ACCUMULATION TO THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE IN
BUFFALO BY SENDING AN EMAIL TO BUFSTORM.REPORT@NOAA.GOV...POSTING
TO THE NWS BUFFALO FACEBOOK PAGE...OR TWEET...USING THE HASHTAG
BUFWX

&&

$$

THOMAS
762 
WWUS41 KBUF 261959
WSWBUF

URGENT - WINTER WEATHER MESSAGE
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BUFFALO NY
259 PM EST MON DEC 26 2016

NYZ007-262100-
/O.CAN.KBUF.ZR.Y.0006.000000T0000Z-161226T2100Z/
JEFFERSON-
INCLUDING THE CITY OF...WATERTOWN
259 PM EST MON DEC 26 2016

...FREEZING RAIN ADVISORY IS CANCELLED...

THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE IN BUFFALO HAS CANCELLED THE
FREEZING RAIN ADVISORY.

$$

NYZ006-008-270000-
/O.EXT.KBUF.ZR.Y.0006.000000T0000Z-161227T0000Z/
OSWEGO-LEWIS-
INCLUDING THE CITIES OF...OSWEGO...LOWVILLE
259 PM EST MON DEC 26 2016

...FREEZING RAIN ADVISORY NOW IN EFFECT UNTIL 7 PM EST THIS
EVENING...

* LOCATIONS...OSWEGO...AND LEWIS COUNTIES.

* TIMING...THROUGH EARLY THIS EVENING.

* ACCUMULATIONS...

* IMPACTS...A BRIEF PERIOD OF FREEZING RAIN WILL CONTINUE INTO THE
  EARLY EVENING HOURS WHICH WILL RESULT IN VERY SLIPPERY
  CONDITIONS ON UNTREATED PAVED SURFACES...INCLUDING ROADS AND
  SIDEWALKS.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

A FREEZING RAIN ADVISORY IS ISSUED WHEN ICING IS EXPECTED IN THE
AFFECTED AREAS...BUT NOT ENOUGH TO DISRUPT TRAVEL OR DAMAGE TREES
AND POWER LINES. INSTEAD...PATCHES OF ICE WILL CAUSE SLICK SPOTS
ON ROADWAYS AND SIDEWALKS. WALKING AND DRIVING COULD THEREFORE BE
DIFFICULT...BUT NOT IMPOSSIBLE.

STAY TUNED TO NOAA WEATHER RADIO OR YOUR FAVORITE SOURCE OF
WEATHER INFORMATION FOR THE LATEST UPDATES. ADDITIONAL DETAILS
CAN ALSO BE FOUND AT WWW.WEATHER.GOV/BUFFALO.

REPORT ICE ACCUMULATION TO THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE IN
BUFFALO BY SENDING AN EMAIL TO BUFSTORM.REPORT@NOAA.GOV...POSTING
TO THE NWS BUFFALO FACEBOOK PAGE...OR TWEET...USING THE HASHTAG
BUFWX

&&

$$

THOMAS
404 
WWUS41 KBUF 262348
WSWBUF

URGENT - WINTER WEATHER MESSAGE
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BUFFALO NY
648 PM EST MON DEC 26 2016

NYZ006-008-270100-
/O.CAN.KBUF.ZR.Y.0006.000000T0000Z-161227T0000Z/
OSWEGO-LEWIS-
INCLUDING THE CITIES OF...OSWEGO...LOWVILLE
648 PM EST MON DEC 26 2016

...FREEZING RAIN ADVISORY IS CANCELLED...

THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE IN BUFFALO HAS CANCELLED THE
FREEZING RAIN ADVISORY.

$$

THOMAS

What forecasters said that day

The local office's own words before this freezing rain advisory went out, as it sent them, from the Iowa Environmental Mesonet's archive of National Weather Service text.

NWS Buffalo, NY wrote its last area forecast discussion before this freezing rain advisory went out at Dec 25, 9:25 AM EST, 3 hours 26 minutes earlier.

Area forecast discussion, Dec 25, 9:25 AM EST, 3 hours 26 minutes before
Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Buffalo NY
925 AM EST Sun Dec 25 2016

.SYNOPSIS...
Clouds will remain through the first half of today across much of
the region, with dry weather expected for most of the area. High
pressure will allow for some sunshine to return this afternoon. Dry
weather will last through tonight before a cold front brings a few
rain showers on Monday. The rain may begin as a brief period of
freezing rain in areas inland from the Great Lakes before
temperatures warm significantly Monday afternoon.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
The brief period of light snow showers that developed earlier this
morning east of Lake Ontario along a backdoor cold front have ended.
This leaves the entire area dry, with dry weather lasting into this
evening. Overcast skies will remain for the bulk of the area through
early afternoon, with the exception of the Saint Lawrence Valley
where clearing is progressing quickly southward.

By afternoon the winds will veer more easterly and help to scour out
low level moisture, first across the North Country and Central NY,
and last across Western NY. This should provide a mostly sunny
afternoon for eastern areas, and some partial sunshine late in the
day across Western NY. A shallow inversion will remain in place
today which will limit mixing, keeping highs in the lower 30s across
most of Western NY. The North Country will remain in a colder
airmass, with highs in the mid 20s.

Southeast winds overnight will bring a warming to the region with
downslope adiabatic warming. Overnight temperatures will be in the
mid to upper 30s for the most part, although there will be mid to
upper 20s east of Lake Ontario. There may be some light freezing
rain along the leading edge of the rain, across the Southern Tier,
between 05AM and 09AM. Will have to watch the temps there closely.

&&

.SHORT TERM /MONDAY THROUGH TUESDAY NIGHT/...
Deep surface low over Northern Minnesota Monday morning will fill as
it tracks northeast to just north of Lake Superior by Monday night.
This will lift a warm front through the area and place us in the
warm sector with robust warm air advection aided by a 60 to 70 knot
low level jet. Expect temperatures Monday to surge into the lower to
mid 50s across western New York and into the 40s east of the Genesee
Valley. The chance of light precipitation will increase during the
morning hours of Monday and into Monday evening as higher theta-e
air overspreads the area within the strong south to southwest low
level jet in advance of this storm system and increasing isentropic
ascent along and north of the warm front. With a cold pocket of low
level air in place, some of the initial light precipitation may fall
as some light freezing rain, particularly across the Southern Tier
and east of the Genesee Valley, any glazing during the onset of this
light precipitation should be minimal, but the evolution of this
will need to be monitored. Outside of this threat, the precipitation
type will be rain into Monday night. Winds could become a concern
with such a strong jet just above the surface. Profiles showing a
strong inversion at 925 mb which will keep higher winds from
reaching the surface. Bufkit momentum transfer scheme suggesting
possible gusts of 40 to 45 mph, or just under advisory criteria. The
warm temperatures, rainfall and any associated snowmelt and runoff
bring about some concerns for a risk of ice jams which are further
detailed in the Hydrology section below.

The passage of a cold front late Monday night will spread in colder
air. As the cold air deepens the rain will start mixing with snow,
especially across the higher terrain Tuesday morning. The cold air
advection pattern will allow some stronger wind gusts to reach the
surface as a 45 to 50 knot low level jet lingers over the region,
with another period of 40 to 45 mph wind gusts possible Tuesday.
Temperatures will slip back through the 40s an bottom out within a
few degrees of freezing Tuesday morning.

Temperatures will return to normal levels on Tuesday, not rising out
of the 30s as cold air advection returns across the region in the
wake of the cold front. 850 mb temperatures falling to around -10c
will become marginally cold enough for some lake effect by late
Tuesday. Models continue to indicate that deeper synoptic moisture
and more favorable profiles for snow production will be found across
and east of Lake Ontario, where higher probabilities for snow
showers will exist through Tuesday night. Lower chances for snow
will be found east of Lake Erie, where synoptic moisture will be
much more shallow and better favor lake effect clouds and possible
drizzle or freezing drizzle. The better potential for some limited
snow off Lake Erie looks to come Tuesday night where lake induced
equilibrium levels peak above 5k feet and reach into the dendritic
snow growth zone. Low temperatures Tuesday night will slip back into
the mid 20s area wide.

&&

.LONG TERM /WEDNESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
Any lingering lake effect snow showers should come to an end
Wednesday morning as surface ridging moves overhead and surface flow
backs to the south in the afternoon ahead of our next system, a
negatively tilted upper level trough that will dig across the Great
Lakes on Thursday. This system will likely bring a mixture of rain
and snow showers to the forecast area Thursday, however of greater
significance will be the resurgence of lake effect snows Thursday
night into Friday night.

Current guidance displays good agreement and consistency in
developing a favorable setup across the lower Great Lakes, with an
upper level jet streak diving across the Ohio Valley, placing the
lower Great Lakes in a synoptically favorable left exit region of
the jet. Well-aligned cyclonic westerly flow with abundant synoptic
moisture and 850mb temps falling to around -12C will set the stage
for potential warning-level snows across the western Southern Tier,
and in particular, east/southeast of Lake Ontario. This threat has
been highlighted in the Hazardous Weather Outlook.

Regarding temperatures, a cool air within the departing upper level
trough will keep temperatures on the cool side Wednesday, with
temperatures topping out around or just below the freezing mark.
Temperatures will change little Wednesday night though as the cool
air departs and warm advection takes over ahead of the approaching
trough, with temperatures climbing to just above average on
Thursday, with highs in the mid to upper 30s. Readings will fall
into the 20s Thursday night as cold advection takes hold across the
region with the arrival of the upper level trough. Friday will feel
much more winter-like, with highs in the 20s.

&&

.AVIATION /15Z SUNDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
Low stratus will remain through midday with MVFR CIGS lower
elevations and IFR CIGS higher terrain across the Southern Tier. The
low clouds will then scatter out by midday across Central NY and the
North Country, and during the later afternoon across Western NY with
flight conditions returning to VFR for the late afternoon through
tonight as high pressure briefly builds into the area.

Outlook...

Monday and Monday night...Rain showers likely, possibly starting as
brief freezing rain inland from the lakes. Areas of MVFR/IFR.
Tuesday...A chance of lake effect snow showers east of the lakes
with local MVFR/IFR.
Wednesday...Mainly VFR.
Thursday...A chance of snow showers with areas of MVFR/IFR.

&&

.MARINE...
North winds will become northeast and increase today, with Small
Craft Advisory conditions continuing along the south shore of Lake
Ontario. The east winds will continue through tonight before
becoming more southerly on Monday as a warm front moves across the
Lower Great Lakes.

&&

.HYDROLOGY...
On Monday...a warm front is forecast to cross the region with a
brief period of warmer temperatures and light rainfall amounts
on the order of a tenth to a quarter inch, with a little higher
amounts possible in a few upslope areas. Based on these expected
conditions, this is not likely to cause any flooding on most
waterways even with the addition of snowmelt. However, there are
some ice jams which are in place on some of the Buffalo area
creeks. For the most part, the ice within these jams is thin and
thus more likely to break up quickly when water rises. These ice
jams will have to be monitored Monday when creek levels rise due
to the rain and snow melt.

&&

.BUF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NY...None.
MARINE...Small Craft Advisory until 10 AM EST Monday for LOZ042-043.
         Small Craft Advisory until 1 PM EST this afternoon for
         LOZ044.

&&

SYNOPSIS...HITCHCOCK/WCH
NEAR TERM...HITCHCOCK/WCH
SHORT TERM...TMA
LONG TERM...WOOD
AVIATION...HITCHCOCK/WCH
MARINE...HITCHCOCK/WCH
HYDROLOGY...APFFEL/HITCHCOCK
Hazardous weather outlook, Dec 25, 5:14 AM EST, 7 hours 37 minutes before
HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BUFFALO NY
514 AM EST SUN DEC 25 2016

NYZ001>003-010-011-019-085-261015-
NIAGARA-ORLEANS-MONROE-NORTHERN ERIE-GENESEE-CHAUTAUQUA-
SOUTHERN ERIE-
514 AM EST SUN DEC 25 2016

THIS HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK IS FOR PORTIONS OF WESTERN NEW YORK.

.DAY ONE...TODAY AND TONIGHT.

THE PROBABILITY OF WIDESPREAD HAZARDOUS WEATHER IS LOW.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...MONDAY THROUGH SATURDAY.

RAIN WILL OVERSPREAD THE AREA MONDAY AHEAD OF A COLD FRONT. THE
RAIN MAY BEGIN AS A VERY BRIEF PERIOD OF FREEZING RAIN MONDAY
MORNING BEFORE TEMPERATURES WARM SIGNIFICANTLY DURING THE
AFTERNOON.

A STRONG AREA OF LOW PRESSURE WILL PASS JUST NORTH OF THE GREAT
LAKES MONDAY NIGHT. THIS MAY PRODUCE SOUTHERLY WIND GUSTS IN
EXCESS OF 40 MPH ALONG THE LAKE ERIE SHORE MONDAY AFTERNOON...
THEN SOUTHWEST WIND GUSTS IN EXCESS OF 40 MPH MONDAY NIGHT AND
EARLY TUESDAY MORNING.

COLDER AIR WILL ARRIVE THURSDAY AND FRIDAY...POSSIBLY SETTING THE
STAGE FOR SIGNIFICANT LAKE EFFECT SNOW EAST AND SOUTHEAST OF LAKES
ERIE AND ONTARIO. THERE REMAINS SOME UNCERTAINTY WITH RESPECT TO
WIND DIRECTION AND PLACEMENT OF THE HEAVIEST LAKE EFFECT SNOW AT
THIS TIME RANGE.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

SPOTTER ACTIVATION IS NOT EXPECTED AT THIS TIME.

THIS PRODUCT...ALONG WITH OTHER WATCHES...WARNINGS...ADVISORIES...
AND STATEMENTS ISSUED BY THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE OFFICE IN
BUFFALO CAN BE FOUND ON THE INTERNET AT HTTP://WWW.WEATHER.GOV/BUF

NYZ004-005-012>014-020-021-261015-
WAYNE-NORTHERN CAYUGA-WYOMING-LIVINGSTON-ONTARIO-CATTARAUGUS-
ALLEGANY-
514 AM EST SUN DEC 25 2016

THIS HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK IS FOR PORTIONS OF WESTERN AND NORTH
CENTRAL NEW YORK.

.DAY ONE...TODAY AND TONIGHT.

THE PROBABILITY OF WIDESPREAD HAZARDOUS WEATHER IS LOW.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...MONDAY THROUGH SATURDAY.

RAIN WILL OVERSPREAD THE AREA MONDAY AHEAD OF A COLD FRONT. THE
RAIN MAY BEGIN AS A FEW HOURS OF FREEZING RAIN MONDAY MORNING
BEFORE TEMPERATURES WARM SIGNIFICANTLY DURING THE AFTERNOON.

COLDER AIR WILL ARRIVE THURSDAY AND FRIDAY...POSSIBLY SETTING THE
STAGE FOR SIGNIFICANT LAKE EFFECT SNOW EAST AND SOUTHEAST OF LAKES
ERIE AND ONTARIO. THERE REMAINS SOME UNCERTAINTY WITH RESPECT TO
WIND DIRECTION AND PLACEMENT OF THE HEAVIEST LAKE EFFECT SNOW AT
THIS TIME RANGE.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

SPOTTER ACTIVATION IS NOT EXPECTED AT THIS TIME.

THIS PRODUCT...ALONG WITH OTHER WATCHES...WARNINGS...ADVISORIES...
AND STATEMENTS ISSUED BY THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE OFFICE IN
BUFFALO CAN BE FOUND ON THE INTERNET AT HTTP://WWW.WEATHER.GOV/BUF

NYZ006>008-261015-
OSWEGO-JEFFERSON-LEWIS-
514 AM EST SUN DEC 25 2016

THIS HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK IS FOR PORTIONS OF CENTRAL NEW YORK.

.DAY ONE...TODAY AND TONIGHT.

THE PROBABILITY OF WIDESPREAD HAZARDOUS WEATHER IS LOW.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...MONDAY THROUGH SATURDAY.

RAIN WILL OVERSPREAD THE AREA MONDAY AHEAD OF A COLD FRONT. THE
RAIN MAY BEGIN AS A FEW HOURS OF FREEZING RAIN MONDAY MORNING
THROUGH EARLY AFTERNOON BEFORE TEMPERATURES WARM SIGNIFICANTLY
LATE IN THE DAY.

A STRONG AREA OF LOW PRESSURE WILL PASS JUST NORTH OF THE GREAT
LAKES MONDAY NIGHT AND EARLY TUESDAY. THIS MAY PRODUCE SOUTHERLY
WIND GUSTS IN EXCESS OF 40 MPH NORTHEAST OF LAKE ONTARIO LATE
MONDAY NIGHT AND TUESDAY MORNING.

COLDER AIR WILL ARRIVE THURSDAY AND FRIDAY...POSSIBLY SETTING THE
STAGE FOR SIGNIFICANT LAKE EFFECT SNOW EAST AND SOUTHEAST OF LAKES
ERIE AND ONTARIO. THERE REMAINS SOME UNCERTAINTY WITH RESPECT TO
WIND DIRECTION AND PLACEMENT OF THE HEAVIEST LAKE EFFECT SNOW AT
THIS TIME RANGE.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

SPOTTER ACTIVATION IS NOT EXPECTED AT THIS TIME.

THIS PRODUCT...ALONG WITH OTHER WATCHES...WARNINGS...ADVISORIES...
AND STATEMENTS ISSUED BY THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE OFFICE IN
BUFFALO CAN BE FOUND ON THE INTERNET AT HTTP://WWW.WEATHER.GOV/BUF

LEZ020-040-041-LOZ030-042>045-062>065-SLZ022-024-261015-
UPPER NIAGARA RIVER AND BUFFALO HARBOR-
LAKE ERIE NEARSHORE WATERS FROM RIPLEY TO DUNKIRK-
LAKE ERIE NEARSHORE WATERS FROM DUNKIRK TO BUFFALO-
LOWER NIAGARA RIVER-
LAKE ONTARIO NEARSHORE WATERS FROM THE NIAGARA RIVER TO HAMLIN BEACH-
LAKE ONTARIO NEARSHORE WATERS FROM HAMLIN BEACH TO SODUS BAY-
LAKE ONTARIO NEARSHORE WATERS FROM SODUS BAY TO MEXICO BAY-
LAKE ONTARIO NEARSHORE WATERS FROM MEXICO BAY TO THE SAINT LAWRENCE
RIVER-
LAKE ONTARIO OPEN WATERS FROM THE NIAGARA RIVER TO HAMLIN BEACH-
LAKE ONTARIO OPEN WATERS FROM HAMLIN BEACH TO SODUS BAY-
LAKE ONTARIO OPEN WATERS FROM SODUS BAY TO MEXICO BAY-
LAKE ONTARIO OPEN WATERS FROM MEXICO BAY TO THE SAINT LAWRENCE RIVER-
SAINT LAWRENCE RIVER FROM CAPE VINCENT TO OGDENSBURG-
SAINT LAWRENCE RIVER FROM OGDENSBURG TO SAINT REGIS-
514 AM EST SUN DEC 25 2016

THIS HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK IS FOR THE NEW YORK WATERS OF LAKE
ERIE...LAKE ONTARIO...AND THE SAINT LAWRENCE RIVER.

.DAY ONE...TODAY AND TONIGHT.

THE PROBABILITY OF WIDESPREAD HAZARDOUS WEATHER IS LOW.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...MONDAY THROUGH SATURDAY.

GALE FORCE WINDS ARE POSSIBLE MONDAY NIGHT INTO TUESDAY AS STRONG
LOW PRESSURE PASSES BY TO THE NORTH OF THE GREAT LAKES.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

SPOTTER ACTIVATION IS NOT EXPECTED AT THIS TIME.

THIS PRODUCT...ALONG WITH OTHER WATCHES...WARNINGS...ADVISORIES...
AND STATEMENTS ISSUED BY THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE OFFICE IN
BUFFALO CAN BE FOUND ON THE INTERNET AT HTTP://WWW.WEATHER.GOV/BUF

The office that day

Everything else NWS Buffalo, NY issued on the same UTC day.

IssuedProductOfficeCountiesLasted
Dec 25, 2:49 PM ESTSmall Craft AdvisoryBUF40 hr

Nearby

Freezing Rain Advisories in New York, 2016Every freezing rain advisory in 2016

Sources

The product and its follow-ups from the Iowa Environmental Mesonet's archive of National Weather Service and Storm Prediction Center text; the sounding from the Mesonet's radiosonde archive; radar from the NEXRAD Level II archive.