Special Weather Statement, NWS Burlington, VT

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Burlington VT
159 PM EDT Mon Jul 18 2016

.SYNOPSIS...
Scattered showers and thunderstorms, some strong to severe will
continue into this evening before a cold front brings cooler and
drier weather to the region for Tuesday into Wednesday. A return
to warmer more humid weather is expected from Thursday onward into
next weekend with a renewed threat for scattered showers and
thunderstorms.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 11 PM THIS EVENING/...
As of 136 PM EDT Monday...Severe thunderstorm watch continues for
the entire North Country through 8PM EDT.

Scattered convection continues to produce strong to severe
thunderstorms across the North Country today in deep layer
moisture as dewpoints continue to be in the upper 60s. Main
threat today has been and will continue to be damaging winds, hail
up to an inch, heavy rainfall and dangerous cloud to ground
lightning.

Showers and thunderstorms will move into untapped instability
across central and eastern VT this afternoon, while cold front
draped across the eastern Great Lakes will progress eastward this
evening. With loss of heating the larger severe threat should
wane after 9 to 10 pm or so, but some lingering instability across
eastern VT will exit around midnight keeping chance for convection
through then. As frontal boundary swings through the area later
in the evening winds will shift to west/northwesterly and begin a
large- scale drying trend. Low temperatures generally in the 50s
to around 60 by daybreak Tuesday.

&&

.SHORT TERM /11 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
As of 345 AM EDT Monday...Cold front and upper trough depart
region with surface high building into area with a comfortably
cooler/drier airmass for tue and wed. Highs will be only in lower
70s tues with just a few degs below seasonable normals for
wednesday. Dewpoints will be in the 40s with tue ngt lows in the
40s/50s across the region.

&&

.LONG TERM /WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY/...
As of 345 AM EDT Monday...The lifting of the trough that passes
across the region mon night allows rising heights for the
remainder of the week as the central CONUS heat ridge dominates
through the period.

Our forecast area never gets into the heart of the heat ridge yet
rising heights and southwest return flow will allow temperatures to
rise 5 to 10 degrees above normal through the period with increasing
humidity late week into the weekend.

There will likely be several disturbances along the northern
periphery of the heat ridge that will bring us multiple chances
of showers and thunderstorms...the question is just timing in a
fast zonal flow.

The first chance is looking like thu ngt/fri as a shortwave in the
WNW flow around the heat ridge moves across the area. timing appears
to be more thu ngt-fri thus missing peak heating on thu yet some
steep mid-level lapse rates with an elevated mixed layer advecting
into the region thus a chance of thunder late thu in the north with
continued threat thu ngt-fri and possibly linger into fri ngt.

I've left a chance of showers/thunderstorms for sat but pops have
lowered and think this may be the dry day of the weekend with some
shortwave ridging on the heels of the departing shortwave.

However...a surface warm front with a return of humidity may bring
us another chance of showers/storms sat ngt with another cold front
and northern shortwave on sunday and more thunderstorms.

&&

.AVIATION /18Z Monday THROUGH Saturday/...
Through 18z Tuesday...VFR conditions outside of scattered
thunderstorm activity expected throughout the afternoon and early
evening. Within heavy showers and thunderstorms, MVFR cigs and
vsbys have been observed and expected to continue. Convective
activity will continue throughout this afternoon with some storms
becoming strong to severe producing wind gusts in excess of 45kts,
hail up to one inch, brief periods of heavy rain and frequent
lightning.

Convective activity looks to begin exiting east and weakening
after 00Z/Tuesday. Some showers will develop along cold front as
it moves from north to south southeast between 00z Tue-06z Tue,
diminishing as the night progresses. Winds behind the front will
shift NW behind the front.

Drying trend and diminishing clouds expected after 06Z...with
possible IFR/MVFR fog development mainly at KSLK and KMPV as winds
slacken. Tuesday morning, expect NW flow to continue with VFR
conditions.

Outlook 18z Tuesday through Saturday...

18Z Tue - Thu: VFR under high pressure. Overnight IFR fog
possible each night, especially at KSLK and KMPV.

00Z Fri onward...VFR, though with potential for showers/storms
and brief ifr/mvfr possible.

&&

.MARINE...
As of 345 AM EDT Monday...Those planning to boat on Lake
Champlain (or even the other smaller lakes for that matter) will
need to pay close attention to the weather throughout the day and
be prepared to return to safe harbor in the matter of just a few
minutes. Thunderstorms, some strong to perhaps locally severe,
will develop by the afternoon hours. These storms will easily be
able to produce strong wind gusts in excess of 35 knots, short-
lived higher waves, frequent lightning and perhaps large hail. A
Lake Thunderstorm Advisory is in effect for this afternoon due to
this threat. In addition, south to southwesterly winds will be
rather gusty today, frequently reaching to near 20 knots.

&&

.BTV WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
VT...None.
NY...None.

&&

SYNOPSIS...JMG/kgm
NEAR TERM...KGM
SHORT TERM...SLW
LONG TERM...SLW
AVIATION...KGM
MARINE...JMG/Nash

HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BURLINGTON VT
1144 AM EDT MON JUL 18 2016

NYZ026>031-034-035-087-VTZ001>012-016>019-191545-
NORTHERN ST. LAWRENCE-NORTHERN FRANKLIN-EASTERN CLINTON-
SOUTHEASTERN ST. LAWRENCE-SOUTHERN FRANKLIN-WESTERN CLINTON-
WESTERN ESSEX-EASTERN ESSEX-SOUTHWESTERN ST. LAWRENCE-GRAND ISLE-
WESTERN FRANKLIN-ORLEANS-ESSEX-WESTERN CHITTENDEN-LAMOILLE-CALEDONIA-
WASHINGTON-WESTERN ADDISON-ORANGE-WESTERN RUTLAND-WINDSOR-
EASTERN FRANKLIN-EASTERN CHITTENDEN-EASTERN ADDISON-EASTERN RUTLAND-
1144 AM EDT MON JUL 18 2016

...SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH 394 IN EFFECT UNTIL 8 PM EDT THIS
EVENING...

THIS HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK IS FOR NORTHERN NEW YORK...CENTRAL
VERMONT...NORTHEAST VERMONT...NORTHWEST VERMONT AND SOUTHERN
VERMONT.

.DAY ONE...THIS AFTERNOON AND TONIGHT.

PLEASE LISTEN TO NOAA WEATHER RADIO OR GO TO WEATHER.GOV ON THE
INTERNET FOR MORE INFORMATION ABOUT THE FOLLOWING HAZARDS.

   SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...TUESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY.

NO HAZARDOUS WEATHER IS EXPECTED AT THIS TIME.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

SPOTTER ACTIVATION IS NOT EXPECTED AT THIS TIME.

KGM

SPECIAL WEATHER STATEMENT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BURLINGTON VT
220 PM EDT MON JUL 18 2016

NYZ028-030-031-034-035-181915-
WESTERN ESSEX-SOUTHERN FRANKLIN-EASTERN CLINTON-EASTERN ESSEX-WESTERN
CLINTON-
220 PM EDT MON JUL 18 2016

...A CLUSTER OF STRONG THUNDERSTORMS WILL AFFECT SOUTHERN
CLINTON...EAST CENTRAL FRANKLIN AND NORTHERN ESSEX COUNTIES...

AT 218 PM EDT...STRONG THUNDERSTORMS WAS LOCATED FROM ST REGIS
MOUNTIAN TO LOON LAKE... MOVING EAST AT 30 MPH.

WIND GUSTS UP TO 50 MPH AND NICKEL SIZE HAIL ARE POSSIBLE WITH THIS
STORM. FREQUENT CLOUD TO GROUND LIGHTNING IS OCCURRING WITH THESE
STORMS. IN ADDITION...VERY HEAVY RAINFALL IS OCCURRING WITH THESE
STORMS.

LOCATIONS IMPACTED INCLUDE...
ADIRONDACK REGIONAL AIRPORT...PERU...WILMINGTON...PEASLEEVILLE...
MADAWASKA...JAY IN ESSEX COUNTY...CLAYBURG...DEBAR MOUNTAIN...AU
SABLE FORKS...HARRIETSTOWN...BLACK BROOK...LEWIS...ST. REGIS
MOUNTAIN...CLINTONVILLE...RIVERVIEW...LAKE COLBY...DUANE CENTER...
UPPER ST. REGIS...WOLF POND AND VERMONTVILLE.

THESE STORMS MAY INTENSIFY...SO BE CERTAIN TO MONITOR LOCAL RADIO
STATIONS AND AVAILABLE TELEVISION STATIONS FOR ADDITIONAL
INFORMATION AND POSSIBLE WARNINGS FROM THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE.

TORRENTIAL RAINFALL IS ALSO OCCURRING WITH THIS STORM...AND MAY CAUSE
LOCALIZED FLOODING. DO NOT DRIVE YOUR VEHICLE THROUGH FLOODED
ROADWAYS.

FREQUENT CLOUD TO GROUND LIGHTNING IS OCCURRING WITH THIS STORM.
LIGHTNING CAN STRIKE 10 MILES AWAY FROM A THUNDERSTORM. SEEK A SAFE
SHELTER INSIDE A BUILDING OR VEHICLE.

PERSONS IN CAMPGROUNDS SHOULD CONSIDER SEEKING STURDY SHELTER UNTIL
THIS STORM PASSES.

LAT...LON 4459 7348 4425 7354 4437 7447 4468 7436
TIME...MOT...LOC 1818Z 278DEG 27KT 4447 7428

LOCONTO

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT...CORRECTED
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BURLINGTON VT
221 PM EDT MON JUL 18 2016

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

1215 PM     HAIL             3 W JAY                 44.94N  72.50W
07/18/2016  E1.00 INCH       ORLEANS            VT   PUBLIC

&&

CORRECTED EVENT

EVENT NUMBER BTV1600581

CM

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BURLINGTON VT
233 PM EDT MON JUL 18 2016

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

1142 AM     TSTM WND DMG     SHELDON                 44.88N  72.94W
07/18/2016                   FRANKLIN           VT   AMATEUR RADIO

            LARGE MAPLE TREE UPROOTED NEAR ABBEY RESTAURANT RT 105

&&

EVENT NUMBER BTV1600583

MEF

<!doctype html>
<html lang="en">
<head>
  <meta charset="utf-8">
  <meta name="viewport" content="width=device-width, initial-scale=1">
  <title>Service Notice</title>
  <link rel="stylesheet" href="index.css">
</head>
<body>
  <main class="wrap">
    <section class="card" role="status" aria-live="polite">
      <div class="status" id="status">Temporary Notice</div>
      <h1 id="headline">This service is currently unavailable.</h1>
      <p id="message1">
        The site you requested is temporarily down for maintenance or an unexpected outage.
      </p>
      <p id="message2">
        Please try again in a few minutes.
      </p>
      <p class="small" id="detail">
        If you are an administrator, restore upstream service and remove the redirect/fallback rule when normal operations resume.
      </p>
    </section>
  </main>
  <script src="index.js"></script>
</body>
</html>

<!doctype html>
<html lang="en">
<head>
  <meta charset="utf-8">
  <meta name="viewport" content="width=device-width, initial-scale=1">
  <title>Service Notice</title>
  <link rel="stylesheet" href="index.css">
</head>
<body>
  <main class="wrap">
    <section class="card" role="status" aria-live="polite">
      <div class="status" id="status">Temporary Notice</div>
      <h1 id="headline">This service is currently unavailable.</h1>
      <p id="message1">
        The site you requested is temporarily down for maintenance or an unexpected outage.
      </p>
      <p id="message2">
        Please try again in a few minutes.
      </p>
      <p class="small" id="detail">
        If you are an administrator, restore upstream service and remove the redirect/fallback rule when normal operations resume.
      </p>
    </section>
  </main>
  <script src="index.js"></script>
</body>
</html>

<!doctype html>
<html lang="en">
<head>
  <meta charset="utf-8">
  <meta name="viewport" content="width=device-width, initial-scale=1">
  <title>Service Notice</title>
  <link rel="stylesheet" href="index.css">
</head>
<body>
  <main class="wrap">
    <section class="card" role="status" aria-live="polite">
      <div class="status" id="status">Temporary Notice</div>
      <h1 id="headline">This service is currently unavailable.</h1>
      <p id="message1">
        The site you requested is temporarily down for maintenance or an unexpected outage.
      </p>
      <p id="message2">
        Please try again in a few minutes.
      </p>
      <p class="small" id="detail">
        If you are an administrator, restore upstream service and remove the redirect/fallback rule when normal operations resume.
      </p>
    </section>
  </main>
  <script src="index.js"></script>
</body>
</html>