Areal Flood Warning 2, NWS Burlington, VT

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BURLINGTON VT
402 AM EST THU FEB 25 2016

.SYNOPSIS...
STRONG LOW PRESSURE OVER THE EASTERN GREAT LAKES THIS MORNING WILL
SHIFT NORTH OF THE INTERNATIONAL BORDER TODAY, AND EVENTUALLY OFF
INTO THE GULF OF ST. LAWRENCE TONIGHT. ANOTHER ROUND OF RAIN IS
EXPECTED TO DEVELOP THROUGH THE MORNING, THOUGH LIGHTER THAN THE
PAST 12 HOURS, THEN PRECIPITATION TRANSITIONS TO A RAIN AND SNOW
MIX THIS EVENING, AND EVENTUALLY ALL SNOW TONIGHT BEFORE ENDING
EARLY FRIDAY. MINOR SNOW ACCUMULATIONS OF A DUSTING TO 2 INCHES IS
EXPECTED AT THE VALLEY FLOOR, WITH UP TO 5 INCHES POSSIBLE ACROSS
THE HIGHER PEAKS OF NORTHERN VERMONT.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
AS OF 402 AM EST THURSDAY...SEEING A BREAK IN THE ACTION
CURRENTLY ACROSS THE BTV CWA AS A MID-LEVEL DRY SLOT HAS SHIFTED
OVER THE REGION IN ADVANCE OF A SURFACE COLD FRONT APPROACHING
FROM THE WEST CURRENTLY OVER WESTERN NEW YORK. WELL AHEAD OF THE
FRONT WE'RE SEEING ANOTHER FINE LINE OF SHOWERS WITH EMBEDDED
THUNDER MOVING INTO THE SOUTHERN DACKS WHICH WILL PROGRESS
NORTHEASTWARD INTO THE NORTHERN DACKS AND CHAMPLAIN VALLEY WITHIN
THE NEXT FEW HOURS. THIS ALONG WITH THE APPROACH OF THE COLD FRONT
WILL RE- INVIGORATE SHOWERS ACROSS THE REGION THROUGH MID-DAY
BEFORE COLDERAIR BEGINS TO FILTER IN FROM THE NORTHWEST
TRANSITIONING PRECIPITATION TO A RAIN/SNOW MIX THIS EVENING AND
THEN SNOW OVERNIGHT. DUE TO THE WARM BL TEMPS INITIALLY, SNOW
WON'T ACCUMULATE MUCH AT THE VALLEY FLOOR WITH PERHAPS A DUSTING
TO 2" POSSIBLE THROUGH THE OVERNIGHT, BUT ATOP THE HIGHER
ELEVATIONS WE SHOULD SEE A SOLID 2-4", POSSIBLY A COUPLE MORE BY
FRIDAY MORNING.

IN REGARDS TO TEMPS FOR THE NEXT 24 HOURS, VERY DIFFICULT FORECAST
FOR THE DAYLIGHT HOURS AS CURRENT OBS WIDELY RANGE FROM THE 30S
ACROSS THE ST. LAWRENCE VALLEY AND EAST OF THE GREENS, TO AS WARM
AS 50S ALONG THE WESTERN SLOPES ON DOWNSLOPE SOUTHEASTERLY FLOW.
EXPECT THERE TO BE A BRIEF BUMP UP AREA-WIDE THIS MORNING BEFORE
PRECIPITATION FILLS BACK IN, THEN PLUMMET OVERNIGHT INTO THE
SINGLE DIGITS ACROSS NORTHERN NEW YORK TO MID 20S ACROSS SOUTHEAST
VERMONT.

&&

.SHORT TERM /FRIDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
AS OF 402 AM EST THURSDAY...COLD FRONT SHIFTS EAST OF THE REGION
FRIDAY WITH A FEW LINGERING SNOW SHOWERS ACROSS THE HIGHER TERRAIN
OF NORTHERN VERMONT, BUT THE TREND WILL BE TOWARDS PARTIAL
CLEARING IN THE AFTERNOON AS HIGH PRESSURE BEGINS TO BUILD IN FROM
THE WEST. THIS HIGH WILL PROVIDE A PARTIALLY CLEAR AND COLD NIGHT
TO THE NORTH COUNTRY FRIDAY NIGHT WITH LOWS IN THE SINGLE DIGITS
ABOVE AND BELOW ZERO. COLD SNAP WILL BE BRIEF THOUGH AS THE HIGH
SHIFTS OFFSHORE SATURDAY AND WARMER SOUTHWEST FLOW DEVELOPS AHEAD
OF AN APPROACHING WEAK FRONT. HIGHS WILL PUSH BACK TOWARDS
SEASONAL NORMALS IN THE UPPER 20S TO MID 30S, WITH A FEW SNOW
SHOWERS POSSIBLE ACROSS NORTHERN NEW YORK IN THE AFTERNOON HOURS.

&&

.LONG TERM /SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
AS OF 319 AM EST THURSDAY...THE VERY ACTIVE PATTERN CONTINUES
FROM SUNDAY ONWARD INTO NEXT WEEK WITH A ROBUST NORTHERN STREAM
DRIVING TWO ADDITIONAL THREATS OF PRECIPITATION THROUGH THE REGION
AND POSSIBLE SOUTHERN STREAM PHASING WITH A STRONGER SYSTEM BY
LATER NEXT WEEK. THIS WILL ULTIMATELY PRESENT A CHALLENGING PERIOD
OF TEMPERATURE FORECASTING AS THE POLAR FRONT WILL LIKELY BE
WAFFLING NORTH/SOUTH THROUGH THE AREA MUCH OF THE WEEK ALONG WITH
TYPICAL NON-DIURNAL TRENDS ETC. IN TERMS OF SENSIBLE WEATHER, THE
LATEST GUIDANCE SUPPORTS THE IDEA OF MODEST CHANCES OF RAIN/SNOW
SHOWER ACTIVITY ACROSS THE NORTH SATURDAY NIGHT INTO SUNDAY AS THE
POLAR FRONT WILL ATTEMPT TO DROP BACK SOUTH INTO THE NORTHERN
PORTIONS OF THE FORECAST AREA. THE FRONT WILL THEN LIFT NORTH BY
LATER SUNDAY INTO SUNDAY NIGHT AS FAIRLY VIGOROUS CLIPPER ENERGY
TRACKS ALONG THE BOUNDARY FROM THE GREAT LAKES EAST INTO THE ST
LAWRENCE VALLEY TO OUR IMMEDIATE NORTH. THUS THE IDEA OF A
SOMEWHAT BETTER THREAT OF RAIN/SNOW SHOWER ACTIVITY BY SUNDAY
NIGHT INTO MONDAY LOOKS ON TRACK AT THIS POINT. AS THE SYSTEM
PASSES, THE POLAR FRONT WILL SWING BACK THROUGH THE REGION YET
AGAIN WITH SOME BACKSIDE LIGHT SNOW ACCUMULATIONS POSSIBLE,
ESPECIALLY ACROSS THE NORTHERN MOUNTAINS ON MONDAY. OUTSIDE SOME
SCT FLURRY/LIGHT SNOW SHOWER ACTIVITY THE MONDAY NIGHT/TUESDAY
TIME FRAME SHOULD BE RELATIVELY QUIET AND SEASONABLY COOL.
THEREAFTER, INCREASING SIGNS THAT YET ANOTHER INLAND RUNNER TYPE
OF SYSTEM OF SOUTHERN STREAM ORIGIN WILL PHASE WITH ITS NORTHERN
COUNTERPART AND TRACK FROM THE LOWER MISSISSIPPI RIVER VALLEY
NORTHEAST THROUGH THE OHIO AND ST LAWRENCE VALLEYS OR NEARBY
ENVIRONS BY THE LATE WEEK TIME FRAME. THIS WOULD BRING A HIGHER
THREAT OF MIXED PCPN AND POSSIBLE RAIN TO THE REGION ONCE AGAIN.
HOWEVER, GIVEN AT LEAST SOME UNCERTAINTY IN TIMING AND TRACK AMONG
THIS MORNING'S DETERMINISTIC/ENSEMBLE OUTPUT WILL LEAN ON THE
CONSERVATIVE SIDE OFFERING DECENT CHANCES OF FRONT END LIGHT SNOWS
BY NEXT WEDNESDAY NIGHT AS SEASONABLY COLD AIRMASS LINGERS
INITIALLY.

&&

.AVIATION /09Z THURSDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
THROUGH 06Z FRIDAY...MIXED BAG OF FLIGHT CATEGORIES FROM VFR TO
IFR/LIFR CEILINGS/VISIBILITIES THROUGH THE NEXT 3-5 HRS AS
CONVECTIVE LINE PUSHES EASTWARD INTO NEW HAMPSHIRE. PRECIPITATION
TRENDS MORE SHOWERY INTO THE MORNING HRS WITH MORE OF A WIDESPREAD
IFR/MVFR THEN PREVAILING FOR MUCH OF THE DAY DUE TO LOW CEILINGS.
AS UPPER TROUGH/SURFACE COLD FRONT AND ASSOCIATED COLD AIR ALOFT
BUILDS INTO THE NORTH COUNTRY, A TRANSITION FROM RAIN OR DRIZZLE
TO IFR- VISIBILITY SNOW SHOWERS ANTICIPATED WEST TO EAST FROM
APPROXIMATELY 22Z THURS - 06Z FRI.

EXPECT BRIEFLY GUSTY WINDS AS THE CONVECTIVE LINE MOVES EASTWARD,
WHICH WILL ALSO GENERALLY END ANY RISK FOR LOW-LEVEL WIND SHEAR AS
WELL. WINDS OVERNIGHT INTO THURS MORNING HRS MAINLY SOUTH 8-12
KTS, SHIFTING TO WEST/NORTHWEST 8-15 KTS WITH FRONTAL PASSAGE
LATER TONIGHT.

OUTLOOK 06Z FRIDAY THROUGH MONDAY...
06Z FRI - 18Z FRI...MVFR/IFR SNOW SHOWERS GRADUALLY TRANSITION TO
VFR. IMPROVEMENT IN FLIGHT CATEGORIES SLOWEST TO OCCUR MPV AND
SLK.

18Z FRI - 00Z SUN...VFR UNDER HIGH PRESSURE.

00Z SUN - 00Z MON...GENERALLY VFR WITH MVFR SNOW SHOWERS FURTHEST
NORTH AS SYSTEM PASSES TO OUR NORTH.

00Z MON ONWARD...MVFR/IFR IN SNOW/RAIN SHOWERS AS CLIPPER MOVES
ACROSS THE REGION. GUSTY SOUTH TO SOUTHWEST WINDS POSSIBLE AT BTV
AND MSS.

&&

.HYDROLOGY...
AS OF 1201 AM EST THURSDAY...AREAL FLOOD WARNING FOR ALL OF
CENTRAL AND NORTHERN VT THROUGH 545 AM DUE TO HEAVY RAINFALL,
SNOWMELT AND POSSIBLE ICE JAMS. LATEST RADAR AND GAGE INFORMATION
SHOW THAT BETWEEN ONE HALF AND AN INCH AND A HALF OF RAIN HAS
FALLEN ACROSS THE EASTERN SLOPES OF THE ADIRONDACKS EAST INTO MUCH
OF VERMONT OVER THE PAST 12-18 HOURS. WITH THE GROUND BEING RATHER
DEEPLY FROZEN DUE TO LACK OF SNOW COVER, MOST OF THIS RAINFALL IS
NOT BEING ABSORBED AND IS RUNNING DIRECTLY OFF INTO AREA STREAMS
AND RIVERS.

SHARP RISES ARE BEING NOTED ON MANY SMALLER STREAMS AND SOME
MAINSTEM RIVERS. WITH ADDITIONAL MODERATE TO HEAVY
RAINFALL/ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS PUSHING INTO THE AREA OVERNIGHT,
MANY WATERSHEDS WILL CLIMB TO NEAR BANKFULL OVERNIGHT WITH
SCATTERED AREAS OF MINOR FLOODING EXPECTED.

&&

.BTV WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
VT...NONE.
NY...NONE.

&&

SYNOPSIS...LAHIFF
NEAR TERM...LAHIFF
SHORT TERM...LAHIFF
LONG TERM...JMG
AVIATION...LOCONTO
HYDROLOGY...JMG

HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BURLINGTON VT
435 AM EST THU FEB 25 2016

NYZ028-031-034-035-VTZ001>012-016>019-260945-
EASTERN CLINTON-WESTERN CLINTON-WESTERN ESSEX-EASTERN ESSEX-
GRAND ISLE-WESTERN FRANKLIN-ORLEANS-ESSEX-WESTERN CHITTENDEN-
LAMOILLE-CALEDONIA-WASHINGTON-WESTERN ADDISON-ORANGE-WESTERN RUTLAND-
WINDSOR-EASTERN FRANKLIN-EASTERN CHITTENDEN-EASTERN ADDISON-
EASTERN RUTLAND-
435 AM EST THU FEB 25 2016

THIS HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK IS FOR NORTHERN NEW YORK...CENTRAL
VERMONT...NORTHEAST VERMONT...NORTHWEST VERMONT AND SOUTHERN
VERMONT.

.DAY ONE...TODAY AND TONIGHT.

SCATTERED AREAS OF MINOR FLOODING WILL BE POSSIBLE THIS MORNING
DUE TO EARLIER HEAVY RAINFALL AND ICE BREAKUP/MOVEMENT.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...FRIDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY.

NO HAZARDOUS WEATHER IS EXPECTED AT THIS TIME.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

SPOTTER ACTIVATION IS NOT EXPECTED AT THIS TIME.

NYZ026-027-029-030-087-260945-
NORTHERN ST. LAWRENCE-NORTHERN FRANKLIN-SOUTHEASTERN ST. LAWRENCE-
SOUTHERN FRANKLIN-SOUTHWESTERN ST. LAWRENCE-
435 AM EST THU FEB 25 2016

THIS HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK IS FOR NORTHERN NEW YORK.

.DAY ONE...TODAY AND TONIGHT.

NO HAZARDOUS WEATHER IS EXPECTED AT THIS TIME.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...FRIDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY.

NO HAZARDOUS WEATHER IS EXPECTED AT THIS TIME.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

SPOTTER ACTIVATION IS NOT EXPECTED AT THIS TIME.

JMG

SPECIAL WEATHER STATEMENT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BURLINGTON VT
412 AM EST THU FEB 25 2016

NYZ030-031-034-035-251000-
WESTERN ESSEX-SOUTHERN FRANKLIN-EASTERN ESSEX-WESTERN CLINTON-
412 AM EST THU FEB 25 2016

...A LINE OF SHOWERS WILL AFFECT SOUTH CENTRAL CLINTON...SOUTHEASTERN
FRANKLIN AND ESSEX COUNTIES...

AT 410 AM EST...A LINE OF SHOWERS WITH EMBEDDED THUNDER WAS ALONG A
LINE EXTENDING FROM 10 MILES NORTHEAST OF LAKE EATON CAMPGROUND TO
NEAR SACANDAGA CAMPGROUND...AND MOVING NORTHEAST AT 50 MPH.

OCCASIONAL LIGHTNING AND WINDS IN EXCESS OF 30 MPH ARE POSSIBLE WITH
THESE SHOWERS.

LOCATIONS IMPACTED INCLUDE...
WILMINGTON...ELIZABETHTOWN...MINERVA...NEWCOMB...SCHROON LAKE...KEENE
VALLEY...JAY IN ESSEX COUNTY...MOUNT MARCY...AU SABLE FORKS...SCAROON
MANOR PUBLIC CAMPGROUND...NORTH ELBA...MORIAH...BLACK BROOK...LEWIS...
KEENE...NORTH HUDSON...MORIAH CENTER...CHILSON...MINEVILLE AND WITHERBEE.

LAT...LON 4461 7362 4380 7345 4374 7406 4378 7405
      4380 7405 4381 7412 4383 7415 4382 7419
      4381 7421 4392 7433 4397 7426 4412 7428
      4411 7437 4417 7438
TIME...MOT...LOC 0910Z 228DEG 56KT 4411 7436 4338 7422

LAHIFF

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PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BURLINGTON VT
522 AM EST THU FEB 25 2016

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

0430 AM     FLOOD            2 E ENOSBURG FALLS      44.91N  72.77W
02/25/2016                   FRANKLIN           VT   EMERGENCY MNGR

            STATE ROUTE 105 CLOSED AT INTERSECTION WITH BOSTON POST
            ROAD

&&

EVENT NUMBER BTV1600337

JMG

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PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BURLINGTON VT
525 AM EST THU FEB 25 2016

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

0500 AM     FLOOD            MIDDLESEX               44.30N  72.68W
02/25/2016                   WASHINGTON         VT   EMERGENCY MNGR

            HIGH WATER/CLOSURES ON LOWER SUNNYBROOK AND OLD
            SETTLEMENT FARM ROADS

&&

EVENT NUMBER BTV1600339

JMG

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