Special Weather Statement, NWS Brownsville, TX

Area Forecast Discussion...UPDATED
National Weather Service BROWNSVILLE TX
658 PM CDT SAT AUG 13 2016

.DISCUSSION...Updated for latest aviation discussion below.
&&

.AVIATION...Convection is developing west of MFE but should remain
away from the aerodrome. Meanwhile, BRO and HRL are in the clear.
VFR/MVFR is expected tonight, and the expected cloud cover could
be too little or too much than what actually develops. Surface
winds will remain light. Tomorrow, VFR will prevail with higher
cloud decks and moderate winds. A TEMPO has been added for
afternoon convection due to a moist atmosphere and daytime heating
interacting with a disturbance in the middle layers of the
atmosphere over Texas.
&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /issued 240 PM CDT SAT AUG 13 2016/

SHORT TERM (Tonight through Sunday Night): upper pattern shift
slowly getting underway as we begin to transition from dominant high
pressure centered over northeast Mexico to that of lower pressure
aloft as an upper trough/shear axis moves to settle over south TX
from the north. Currently, waves of thick low/mid clouds continue to
attempt to push into the northwest portion of the forecast area in
association with the upper trough over central TX. This, while a sea
breeze is getting organized at the coast and is just beginning to
move inland. Not expecting any precipitation from the sea breeze
this afternoon as precipitable water values remain near 1.80 inches.
Temperature/dew point combinations are now just beginning to hit
heat advisory criteria at some of the main reporting sites and the
advisory for all of the counties except Zapata and Jim Hogg looks
good.

Overnight tonight, moisture will increase across the Rio Grande
Valley as the upper high to our west continues to nudge westward and
the upper trough/shear axis creeps closer from the north. Enough low
level moisture looks to move into the northwest portion of the
forecast area overnight tonight to warrant precipitation and
slightly increased chances of precip in that region based on current
trends. For Sunday, except for a few hours in the afternoon,
moisture will continue to increase with precipitable water values
approaching 2.0 inches by the end of the day. Increased moisture,
daytime heating, a weak sea breeze, and some additional weak
dynamics aloft will bring the first possibility of at least
widespread light precipitation, the likes of which have not been
seen for several days. Increased moisture/cloud cover should help to
shave a degree or two off high temperature values across the board
Sunday afternoon as compared to today, though high temperatures will
remain somewhat above normal. Temp/dew point combinations should
keep heat indices below advisory criteria in the afternoon.

The short-term models are differing on details for Sunday night, but
suffice it to say that at least slight chances of precipitation are
warranted for the entire forecast area during that time as moisture
continues to increase throughout the atmospheric column into Monday
morning.

LONG TERM (Monday through Saturday): 500mb shear axis in
combination with a shortwave trough will develop across Texas
Monday between the 500mb ridge across the southwest United States
and the 500mb ridge across the southeast United States. Moisture
will continue to pool along a frontal boundary draped across
central TX. This will provide a good chance of showers and
thunderstorms across portions of south TX Monday through Wednesday
before the 500mb ridge across the southeast U.S. builds westward
towards the end of the week. Rain chances will gradually diminish
across the CWA through the rest of the forecast period as a
result. Until then...the increase in rain chances and cloud cover
will finally bring some relief to the hot and humid conditions
that have dominated last week. Also...any rainfall we receive will
ameliorate the abnormally dry conditions across deep south TX
that have allowed moderate drought conditions to develop across
western portions of the CWA.

MARINE:
After Small Craft Should Exercise Caution conditions this
evening, the pressure gradient between surface high pressure over
the northwest gulf and weak low pressure over central TX will
weaken through the period thereafter. Winds/seas will be on the
decrease Sunday/Sunday night.

Monday through Thursday...Light to moderate southeast winds will
prevail across the coastal waters Monday as a weak frontal
boundary draped across central Texas provides a weak pressure
gradient across the lower TX coast. The pressure gradient will
remain weak across the western Gulf of Mexico Tuesday even as a
weak inverted trough develops along the lower TX coast. Light to
moderate southeast winds should prevail across the coastal waters
Tuesday through Thursday with high pressure across the western
north Atlantic extending into the Gulf of Mexico providing an
onshore flow.
&&

.BRO Watches/Warnings/Advisories...None.
&&

This product is also available on the web at:
HTTP://WEATHER.GOV/RGV

HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK...UPDATED
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BROWNSVILLE TX
627 PM CDT SAT AUG 13 2016

TXZ248>257-142100-
ZAPATA-JIM HOGG-BROOKS-KENEDY-STARR-HIDALGO-INLAND WILLACY-
INLAND CAMERON-COASTAL WILLACY-COASTAL CAMERON-
627 PM CDT SAT AUG 13 2016

THIS HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK IS FOR PORTIONS OF DEEP SOUTH
TEXAS.

.DAY ONE...REST OF TONIGHT

THERE IS A MODERATE RISK OF RIP CURRENTS AT THE BEACHES OF SOUTH
PADRE ISLAND AND AT BOCA CHICA BEACH.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...SUNDAY THROUGH FRIDAY

AN ELEVATED RISK OF RIP CURRENTS IS POSSIBLE AT THE LOCAL BEACHES
THROUGHOUT THE ENTIRE FORECAST PERIOD.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

SKYWARN SPOTTER ACTIVATION WILL NOT BE NEEDED.

GMZ130-132-135-150-155-170-175-142100-
LAGUNA MADRE FROM THE PORT OF BROWNSVILLE TO THE ARROYO COLORADO-
LAGUNA MADRE FROM THE ARROYO COLORADO TO 5 NM NORTH OF PORT
MANSFIELD TX-
LAGUNA MADRE FROM 5 NM NORTH OF PORT MANSFIELD TO BAFFIN BAY TX-
COASTAL WATERS FROM PORT MANSFIELD TO THE RIO GRANDE OUT 20 NM-
COASTAL WATERS FROM BAFFIN BAY TO PORT MANSFIELD OUT 20 NM-
WATERS FROM PORT MANSFIELD TO THE RIO GRANDE EXTENDING FROM 20 TO
60 NM-
WATERS FROM BAFFIN BAY TO PORT MANSFIELD EXTENDING FROM 20 TO
60 NM-
627 PM CDT SAT AUG 13 2016

THIS HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK IS FOR PORTIONS OF THE GULF OF
MEXICO AND THE LAGUNA MADRE.

.DAY ONE...REST OF TONIGHT

NO HAZARDOUS WEATHER IS EXPECTED AT THIS TIME.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...SUNDAY THROUGH FRIDAY

NO HAZARDOUS WEATHER IS EXPECTED AT THIS TIME.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

SKYWARN SPOTTER ACTIVATION WILL NOT BE NEEDED.

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SPECIAL WEATHER STATEMENT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BROWNSVILLE TX
800 PM CDT SAT AUG 13 2016

TXZ248-140200-
ZAPATA TX-
800 PM CDT SAT AUG 13 2016

...SIGNIFICANT WEATHER ADVISORY FOR SOUTHEASTERN ZAPATA COUNTY UNTIL
900 PM CDT...

AT 800 PM CDT...NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DOPPLER RADAR WAS TRACKING
A STRONG THUNDERSTORM NEAR LOPENO...MOVING NORTHWEST AT 10 MPH.

NICKEL SIZE HAIL AND WINDS IN EXCESS OF 40 MPH WILL BE POSSIBLE WITH
THIS STORM.

LOCATIONS IMPACTED INCLUDE...
LOPENO...SIESTA SHORES...FALCON LAKE ESTATES...ZAPATA...AND MEDINA.

LAT...LON 2699 9913 2678 9897 2669 9901 2665 9906
      2672 9921 2673 9921 2675 9924 2679 9924
      2682 9926 2684 9927 2685 9927 2685 9928
TIME...MOT...LOC 0100Z 133DEG 9KT 2672 9904

SPEECE