Special Marine Warning 13, NWS Brownsville, TX

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service BROWNSVILLE TX
245 PM CDT THU MAY 19 2016

.SHORT TERM (Tonight through Friday Night): Upper trough centered
over SE CO and NE NM will be lifting Northeast across the Central
Plains during the short term period. As it progresses
Eastward...the Southeast flow across S Central TX has strengthen
lifting the stationary front currently close to Laredo extending
northeast towards the northwest Gulf Coast. There is enough low
level waa/moisture transport for some convection to initiate along
the stationary frontal boundary. Currently, isolated to scattered
showers are starting to develop over northern Hidalgo, Brooks and
Kenedy Counties producing brief moderate rain showers while moving
North to NE. Further north, a line of thunderstorms will
eventually move across the cwa. This convection will increment
across the cwa through out the day with the potential for severe
thunderstorms later this afternoon into tonight. SPC has lowered
the threat for most of Deep South Texas under a Marginal and a
Slight Risk near Kenedy County. The storms could become severe
with the potential to produce large hail, damaging winds, and
flash flooding, expected to move into Deep South TX and the Rio
Grande Valley. Flash Flood Watch has been extended through
1 am as the line of cells is slowly moving eastward. Have
included these weather threats in the forthcoming official
forecast. Localized heavy rainfall is possible with any
thunderstorm through tonight could lead to minor flooding.
Rainfall amounts will range between a half an inch with higher
amounts of 1 to 2 inches are possible mainly over the Northern
counties.

The front will begin to lift Northeast and enhance another
cluster of convection early Friday through Friday night with a
weak easterly flow across the area. Lingering moisture over the
region east of the Sierra Madre will enhance showers and
thunderstorms along the mountains and the western counties through
the night. High temperatures will be in the mid to upper 80s
Friday and with more sunshine expected Saturday temps reach the
90s mainly out west and mid 80s neat the coast. Low temperatures
will be ranging between the mid to upper 70s.

.LONG TERM (Saturday through Thursday):The long term starts off
with a 500mb ridge building over Texas behind the departing upper
trough and a deepening upstream upper low across the Intermountain
West. The ridge holds strong through Tuesday then begins to
flatten as it gets shoved eastward as the western upper low opens
up into a trough.

residual low level moisture combining with daytime heating may set
off isolated showers and thunderstorms over the weekend but coverage
will be very limited as the mid level dry air deepens as subsidence
increases with the building ridge. Dry conditions to prevail Monday
through Wednesday at this point in time with ridge axis hanging over
Deep South Texas. The ridge axis moves begins to move east late next
week with southwest flow increasing with the low probability of
our next chance of seeing rain chances increase.

Temperatures at the surface and at 850mb increase as the upper ridge
strengthens. 850mb temperatures by next Wed/Thu are approaching 25C.
Guidance from the GFS and ECMWF although in good agreement would
believe we could see daytime maxes exceeding 100 degrees across in
the Rio Grande Plains and upper 90s to 100 degree in the mid and
upper Valley. Overnight lows remain extremely warm with mid to
upper 70s through the period.

&&

.MARINE: Now through Friday night, Gradient will be weak
through the period keeping low to moderate seas across the Gulf
Waters. East to Southeast flow will be in place for the period
with strong thunderstorms late this afternoon through Friday.

Saturday through TUESDAY...moderate onshore flow and a low
seas is expected this weekend with a gradual increase in southeast
winds next week as the pressure gradient strengthens. surface high
pressure strengthens across the Gulf of Mexico by the middle of next
week with an upstream upper trough approaching the 4 corners area.
the thermal gradient to strengthen between the cooler Gulf waters
and inland areas allow for breezy to strong southerly flow to
develop at times. Periods of exercise caution to short duration
small craft advisory conditions may develop.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
BAYVIEW/PORT ISABEL  76  84  77  86 /  50  40  20  20
BROWNSVILLE          76  86  77  88 /  40  40  20  20
HARLINGEN            75  88  76  90 /  40  30  20  20
MCALLEN              75  89  77  92 /  40  30  20  20
RIO GRANDE CITY      73  91  76  94 /  50  20  30  20
SOUTH PADRE ISLAND   77  80  78  82 /  50  40  20  20

&&

.BRO Watches/Warnings/Advisories...
TX...Flash Flood Watch until 1 AM CDT Friday for TXZ248>257.

GM...None.
&&

This product is also available on the web at:
HTTP://WEATHER.GOV/RGV

67...short term
59...long term
65/58...PSU/graphics

HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BROWNSVILLE TX
515 AM CDT THU MAY 19 2016

TXZ248>257-201015-
ZAPATA-JIM HOGG-BROOKS-KENEDY-STARR-HIDALGO-INLAND WILLACY-
INLAND CAMERON-COASTAL WILLACY-COASTAL CAMERON-
515 AM CDT THU MAY 19 2016

THIS HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK IS FOR PORTIONS OF DEEP SOUTH
TEXAS.

.DAY ONE...TODAY AND TONIGHT

STRONG TO SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS...FEATURING LARGE HAIL...DAMAGING
WINDS...AND FLASH FLOODING ARE FORECAST FOR TODAY AND TONIGHT.

A FLASH FLOOD WATCH IS IN EFFECT FOR THE ENTIRE AREA UNTIL 7PM.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...FRIDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY

ADDITIONAL STRONG TO SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS...FEATURING LARGE HAIL
...DAMAGING WINDS...AND FLASH FLOODING...ARE POSSIBLE FRIDAY.

AN ELEVATED RISK OF RIP CURRENTS IS POSSIBLE AT THE LOCAL BEACHES
TUESDAY AND WEDNESDAY.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

SKYWARN SPOTTER ACTIVATION MAY BE NEEDED TODAY AND TONIGHT...AND
AGAIN FOR FRIDAY.

GMZ130-132-135-150-155-170-175-201015-
LAGUNA MADRE FROM THE PORT OF BROWNSVILLE TO THE ARROYO COLORADO-
LAGUNA MADRE FROM THE ARROYO COLORADO TO 5 NM NORTH OF PORT
MANSFIELD TX-
LAGUNA MADRE FROM 5 NM NORTH OF PORT MANSFIELD TO BAFFIN BAY TX-
COASTAL WATERS FROM PORT MANSFIELD TO THE RIO GRANDE OUT 20 NM-
COASTAL WATERS FROM BAFFIN BAY TO PORT MANSFIELD OUT 20 NM-
WATERS FROM PORT MANSFIELD TO THE RIO GRANDE EXTENDING FROM 20 TO
60 NM-
WATERS FROM BAFFIN BAY TO PORT MANSFIELD EXTENDING FROM 20 TO
60 NM-
515 AM CDT THU MAY 19 2016

THIS HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK IS FOR PORTIONS OF THE GULF OF
MEXICO AND THE LAGUNA MADRE.

.DAY ONE...TODAY AND TONIGHT

A FEW STRONG TO SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ARE POSSIBLE TODAY AND
TONIGHT...PRODUCING POTENTIALLY DAMAGING WINDS AND LARGE HAIL.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...FRIDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY

A FEW STRONG TO SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ARE POSSIBLE FRIDAY...PRODUCING
POTENTIALLY DAMAGING WINDS AND LARGE HAIL.

SMALL CRAFT ADVISORIES MAY BE NEEDED ALONG THE LOWER TEXAS COAST
TUESDAY AND WEDNESDAY.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

SKYWARN SPOTTER ACTIVATION ALONG THE LOWER TEXAS COASTLINE MAY BE
NEEDED TODAY AND TONIGHT...AND AGAIN FOR FRIDAY.

SPECIAL WEATHER STATEMENT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BROWNSVILLE TX
104 PM CDT THU MAY 19 2016

TXZ248-191845-
ZAPATA TX-
104 PM CDT THU MAY 19 2016

...SIGNIFICANT WEATHER ADVISORY FOR NORTHEASTERN ZAPATA COUNTY UNTIL
145 PM CDT...

AT 103 PM CDT...DOPPLER RADAR WAS TRACKING A STRONG THUNDERSTORM 10
MILES NORTH OF ZAPATA COUNTY AIRPORT...OR 13 MILES NORTHWEST OF
BUSTAMANTE...MOVING NORTHEAST AT 30 MPH.

NICKEL SIZE HAIL AND WINDS IN EXCESS OF 40 MPH WILL BE POSSIBLE WITH
THIS STORM.

LOCATIONS IMPACTED INCLUDE...
ESCOBAS.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

TORRENTIAL RAINFALL IS ALSO OCCURRING WITH THIS STORM...AND MAY LEAD
TO LOCALIZED FLOODING. DO NOT DRIVE YOUR VEHICLE THROUGH FLOODED
ROADWAYS.

THIS STORM MAY INTENSIFY...SO BE CERTAIN TO MONITOR LOCAL RADIO
STATIONS AND AVAILABLE TELEVISION STATIONS FOR ADDITIONAL INFORMATION
AND POSSIBLE WARNINGS FROM THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE.

&&

LAT...LON 2704 9923 2725 9932 2727 9901 2705 9897
TIME...MOT...LOC 1803Z 240DEG 26KT 2712 9929

GB

SPECIAL WEATHER STATEMENT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BROWNSVILLE TX
343 PM CDT THU MAY 19 2016

TXZ251-192115-
KENEDY TX-
343 PM CDT THU MAY 19 2016

...SPECIAL WEATHER STATEMENT...

AT 342 PM CDT...DOPPLER RADAR WAS TRACKING A STRONG THUNDERSTORM 9
MILES WEST OF RUDOLPH...OR 15 MILES NORTHEAST OF SAN MANUEL...MOVING
EAST AT 15 MPH.

HALF INCH HAIL AND WINDS IN EXCESS OF 30 MPH WILL BE POSSIBLE WITH
THIS STORM.

LOCATIONS IMPACTED INCLUDE...
RUDOLPH AND NORIAS.

LAT...LON 2660 9775 2661 9794 2662 9799 2679 9798
      2684 9760 2660 9759
TIME...MOT...LOC 2042Z 267DEG 15KT 2670 9791

JMS

SPECIAL WEATHER STATEMENT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BROWNSVILLE TX
404 PM CDT THU MAY 19 2016

TXZ253-192145-
HIDALGO TX-
404 PM CDT THU MAY 19 2016

...SIGNIFICANT WEATHER ADVISORY FOR SOUTHERN HIDALGO COUNTY UNTIL 445
PM CDT...

AT 403 PM CDT...DOPPLER RADAR WAS TRACKING A STRONG THUNDERSTORM OVER
PALMHURST...MOVING EAST AT 20 MPH.

DIME SIZE HAIL AND WINDS IN EXCESS OF 30 MPH WILL BE POSSIBLE WITH
THIS STORM.

LOCATIONS IMPACTED INCLUDE...
EDINBURG...MISSION...PHARR...SAN JUAN...ALAMO...DONNA...ELSA...PALMVIEW...
PALMHURST AND MCALLEN.

LAT...LON 2605 9807 2607 9808 2606 9808 2606 9809
      2612 9825 2612 9827 2613 9833 2617 9834
      2617 9835 2615 9835 2617 9836 2616 9837
      2616 9839 2619 9843 2634 9841 2634 9799
      2606 9800 2606 9802 2607 9803 2604 9804
TIME...MOT...LOC 2103Z 274DEG 16KT 2625 9833

JMS

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