Small Craft Advisory 10, NWS Brownsville, TX

536 
WHUS74 KBRO 281020
MWWBRO

URGENT - MARINE WEATHER MESSAGE
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BROWNSVILLE TX
420 AM CST THU JAN 28 2016

...MARINE CONDITIONS IMPROVING...

.WAVE HEIGHTS HAVE SUBSIDED TO BELOW ADVISORY CRITERIA...THUS THE
SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FOR THE LOWER TEXAS GULF WATERS HAS BEEN
ALLOWED TO EXPIRE.

GMZ150-155-170-175-281130-
/O.EXP.KBRO.SC.Y.0010.000000T0000Z-160128T1000Z/
COASTAL WATERS FROM PORT MANSFIELD TO THE RIO GRANDE OUT 20 NM-
COASTAL WATERS FROM BAFFIN BAY TO PORT MANSFIELD OUT 20 NM-
WATERS FROM PORT MANSFIELD TO THE RIO GRANDE EXTENDING FROM 20 TO
60 NM-
WATERS FROM BAFFIN BAY TO PORT MANSFIELD EXTENDING FROM 20 TO
60 NM-
420 AM CST THU JAN 28 2016

...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY HAS EXPIRED...

MAXIMUM WAVE HEIGHTS REMAIN NEAR 6 FEET SO MARINERS SHOULD
EXERCISE CAUTION THIS MORNING IF OPERATING IN THE AREA.

$$

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BROWNSVILLE TX
1200 AM CST THU JAN 28 2016

.DISCUSSION...UPDATED FOR LATEST AVIATION DISCUSSION BELOW.

&&

.AVIATION...CLEAR SKIES AND LIGHT NORTHWEST WINDS PREVAIL ACROSS
DEEP SOUTH TEXAS EARLY THIS MORNING. VFR CONDITIONS WILL CONTINUE
FOR THE RGV AIRPORTS OVER THE NEXT 24 HOURS. LIGHT WEST TO
NORTHWEST WINDS EXPECTED OVERNIGHT AND THURSDAY AS THE PGF
WEAKENS WITH SOME LIGHT SE WINDS RETURNING LATE IN THE TAF PERIOD.

&&

.DISCUSSION...UPDATED FOR LATEST MARINE DISCUSSION BELOW.

&&

.MARINE...THE LATEST BUOY DATA INDICATES SEAS ARE SLIGHTLY OVER
7.2 FEET ACROSS THE LOWER TEXAS GULF WATERS. WILL EXTEND PREVIOUS
SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FOR THE GULF WATERS THROUGH 4 AM DUE ELEVATED
SEAS AND SWELLS.

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 827 PM CST WED JAN 27 2016/

DISCUSSION...UPDATED FOR LATEST AVIATION DISCUSSION BELOW.

AVIATION...THE 500 MB TROUGH AXIS OVER THE TX COASTLINE THIS
EVENING WILL BE MOVING EAST INTO THE WESTERN GULF OF MEX LATER
TONIGHT INTO THURS. THIS WILL CLEAR OUT THE LAST OF THE MID AND
HIGH LEVEL CLD COVER IN PLACE OVER THE RGV. EXPECT VFR CONDITIONS
TO PREVAIL FOR THE RGV AIRPORTS OVER THE NEXT 24 HOURS. THE
SURFACE WINDS WILL BECOME LIGHT AND VARIABLE LATER TONIGHT AS THE
PGF WEAKENS WITH SOME LIGHT SE WINDS RETURNING LATE IN THE TAF
PERIOD.

PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 247 PM CST WED JAN 27 2016/

SHORT TERM /NOW THROUGH THURSDAY NIGHT/...ELEVATED LIGHT PRECIP
WILL BE A POSSIBILITY THROUGH THIS AFTERNOON AND EARLY EVENING AS
THE AXIS OF A MID LEVEL SHORT WAVE TROUGH...WHICH IS PROVIDING
LIFT...CLEARS THE AREA LATER TODAY. MID LEVEL CLOUDS WILL CLEAR
TONIGHT...BUT HIGHER LEVEL JET CIRRUS WILL STILL BE A POSSIBILITY.
MODERATE NORTHWEST WINDS WILL DECREASE TO LIGHT OVERNIGHT...AS
HIGH PRESSURE SPREADS OVER THE AREA. FORECAST CHALLENGE WILL BE
LOW TEMPERATURES TONIGHT. THE NAM IS MOST AGGRESSIVE...TAKING IT
DOWN INTO THE 30S FOR MOST OF THE CWA. MID 30S ACROSS THE
RANCHLANDS AND BRUSH COUNTRY WILL RESULT IN ISOLATED FREEZING
MARKS. THE GFS AND ECMWF ARE GOING FOR HIGHER OVERNIGHT
LOWS...INTO THE 40S FOR MOST AREAS. FEEL COMFORTABLE TRENDING
TOWARD THE NAM...WHICH IS IN LINE WITH THE INHERITED
FORECAST...UNDERCUTTING OTHER GUIDANCE A BIT. THAT SAID
HOWEVER...DO NOT HAVE SOLID JUSTIFICATION FOR A FREEZE WARNING.

THURSDAY AND THURSDAY NIGHT WILL BE QUIET...WITH FEWER CLOUDS...MORE
SUN...AND LIGHT WINDS SHIFTING TO SOUTHEAST OR SOUTH THURSDAY NIGHT.
HIGH TEMPS ON THURSDAY WILL BE IN THE UPPER 60S TO NEAR 70 WHILE
THURSDAY NIGHT LOWS WILL BE MAINLY IN THE 40S.

LONG TERM /FRIDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...THE MAJORITY OF THE LONG
TERM LOOKS QUIET, WARM AND DRY. ZONAL MID TO UPPER LEVEL FLOW TO
PREVAIL THROUGH SUNDAY WITH THE NEXT UPPER TROUGH DEVELOPING
MONDAY OVER THE SOUTHWEST STATES PASSING TO OUR NORTH TUESDAY. IN
A NUTSHELL A SUBSTANTIAL WARMING TREND WILL TAKE PLACE THROUGH
MONDAY WITH A DRY COLD FRONT PASSING THROUGH TUESDAY WITH COOLER
AIR FILTERING IN FOR MID WEEK. EVEN WITH SOUTHERLY FLOW BECOMING
DOMINATE AND GUSTY AT TIMES UNTIL THE FRONT PASSES, LITTLE IN THE
WAY OF MOISTURE DEPTH IS INDICATED BY THE GFS AND ECMWF THUS NO
RAIN IS MENTIONED IN THE EXTENDED AT THIS TIME. AS FOR
TEMPERATURES THE ECMWF IS WARMER THAN THE GFS WITH THE WARMEST
DAYS OCCURRING SUNDAY AND MONDAY WITH 80S AND A FEW LOWER 90S,
MONDAY, AS WINDS TURN MORE SOUTH TO SOUTHWEST WITH THE APPROACH OF
THE UPSTREAM UPPER TROUGH. LATEST FORECAST NUMBERS TREND ON THE
WARMER SIDE OF A BLEND OF THE 12Z GUIDANCE. OVERNIGHT LOWS ALSO
INCREASING BUT WITH LOWER MOISTURE CONTENT AND DRIER AIR FILTERING
IN NEXT WEEK A MORE COMFORTABLE TREND INSTEAD OF MUGGY CONDITIONS
LOOKS LIKE A BETTER HEDGE AT THIS POINT IN TIME. THE ONLY FLY IN
THE OINTMENT WILL BE SOME PERIODS OF BREEZY TO WINDY CONDITIONS.
THE GUSTY DAYS LOOK TO BE NEXT WEEKEND, MONDAY AND TUESDAY AFTER
THE FRONT MOVES THROUGH. FINER DETAILS ON THE WIND AS WE GET
CLOSER TO THESE DAYS. ENJOY THE THAW WHILE YOU CAN.

MARINE...NOW THROUGH THURSDAY NIGHT...THE ADVISORY FOR THE LAGUNA
WILL CONTINUE THROUGH 6 PM AS THE MODELS INDICATE THAT STRONG
ENOUGH WINDS WILL PERSIST OVER THE LOWER...MORE SOUTHERN...PORTIONS
OF THE LAGUNA MADRE. WINDS OVERALL WILL SLOWLY DECREASE THROUGH
TONIGHT... BUT SEAS WILL REMAIN ELEVATED OVER THE GULF...AND THE
ADVISORY THERE WAS EXTENDED THROUGH MIDNIGHT FOR NOW.
OTHERWISE...HIGH PRESSURE WILL SPREAD OVER THE AREA WITH IMPROVING
CONDITIONS. NORTH WINDS WILL SWITCH TO SOUTH THURSDAY NIGHT AS
HIGH PRESSURE SHIFTS EAST AND PRESSURES FALL OVER THE PLAINS IN
RESPONSE TO NORTHERN STORMS.

FRIDAY THROUGH MONDAY...SOUTHERLY FLOW BECOMES WELL ESTABLISH
BY FRIDAY BECOMING FRESH TO OCCASIONALLY STRONG NEXT WEEKEND AND
MONDAY. SMALL CRAFT ADVISORIES MAY BE NEEDED AT TIMES SATURDAY
NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY WHEN THE STRONGEST WINDS ARE EXPECTED IN
ADVANCE OF A DEVELOPING STORM SYSTEM OVER THE DESERT SOUTHWEST AND
SOUTHERN PLAINS. THE ASSOCIATED COLD FRONT IS EXPECTED TO ARRIVE
IN THE REGION NEXT TUESDAY.

&&

.BRO WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
TX...NONE.
GM...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 4 AM CST THURSDAY FOR GMZ150-155-170-
     175.

&&

THIS PRODUCT IS ALSO AVAILABLE ON THE WEB AT:
HTTP://WEATHER.GOV/RGV

63

HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK...UPDATED
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BROWNSVILLE TX
1204 AM CST THU JAN 28 2016

TXZ248>257-290615-
ZAPATA-JIM HOGG-BROOKS-KENEDY-STARR-HIDALGO-INLAND WILLACY-
INLAND CAMERON-COASTAL WILLACY-COASTAL CAMERON-
1204 AM CST THU JAN 28 2016

THIS HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK IS FOR PORTIONS OF DEEP SOUTH
TEXAS.

.DAY ONE...TONIGHT

THERE IS A HIGH RISK OF RIP CURRENTS AT THE BEACHES OF SOUTH
PADRE ISLAND AND AT BOCA CHICA BEACH TONIGHT.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...THURSDAY THROUGH TUESDAY

AN ELEVATED RISK OF RIP CURRENTS IS LIKELY AT THE LOCAL BEACHES
THURSDAY.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

SPOTTER ACTIVATION WILL NOT BE NEEDED.

GMZ130-132-135-150-155-170-175-290615-
LAGUNA MADRE FROM THE PORT OF BROWNSVILLE TO THE ARROYO COLORADO-
LAGUNA MADRE FROM THE ARROYO COLORADO TO 5 NM NORTH OF PORT
MANSFIELD TX-
LAGUNA MADRE FROM 5 NM NORTH OF PORT MANSFIELD TO BAFFIN BAY TX-
COASTAL WATERS FROM PORT MANSFIELD TO THE RIO GRANDE OUT 20 NM-
COASTAL WATERS FROM BAFFIN BAY TO PORT MANSFIELD OUT 20 NM-
WATERS FROM PORT MANSFIELD TO THE RIO GRANDE EXTENDING FROM 20 TO
60 NM-
WATERS FROM BAFFIN BAY TO PORT MANSFIELD EXTENDING FROM 20 TO
60 NM-
1204 AM CST THU JAN 28 2016

THIS HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK IS FOR PORTIONS OF THE GULF OF
MEXICO AND THE LAGUNA MADRE.

.DAY ONE...TONIGHT

SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY HAS BEEN EXTENDED FOR THE LOWER TEXAS GULF
WATERS THROUGH 4 AM THIS MORNING DUE TO ROUGH SEAS.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...THURSDAY THROUGH TUESDAY

SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY CONDITIONS MAY BE NEEDED TUESDAY FOR ALL OR
PORTIONS OF THE LOWER TEXAS COASTAL WATERS DUE TO STRONG WINDS AND
ROUGH SEAS.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

SPOTTER ACTIVATION WILL NOT BE NEEDED.