Coastal Flood Statement 8, NWS Brownsville, TX

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service BROWNSVILLE TX
224 PM CST Fri Nov 11 2016

.SHORT TERM (Now through Saturday Night): A large...tilted mid
level H5 closed low is situated over far West TX and Southern NM.
Flow around this low is streaming ample moisture into the
region...keeping us rather cool and cloudy across portions of the
Lower RGV. Although a few breaks in the cloud cover has allowed
areas in the Ranchlands and mid valley to warm well into the mid
to upper 70s.

Meanwhile...surface high pressure is moving south across the
state...bring lower dewpoints. Do expect the rain to end this
evening as the drier surface air works its way into the region.
However...rainfree conditions will not likely last long as the
closed low begins to reorient itself and tilts more upright. This
will bring another wave of of deep layer moisture...and rain
returning overnight across the Upper Valley.

The trough will slowly get absorbed by the mean flow and will
eventually become an open wave late in the period. With plenty of
moisture and an area of ascent over the RGV...slight to chance POPs
will increase from west to east through the day Saturday and into
the evening. However...most activity will be scattered at best and
larger precip amounts are not expected...with some locations
picking up around another tenth of an inch or so.

Given the cloud cover and precip chances...high temperatures on
Saturday will run a few degrees below normal...with lows tonight
and Saturday night likely running near or a little above average
values.

.LONG TERM (Sunday through Friday): Isolated to scattered showers
are anticipated for all or portions of the BRO CWFA on Sunday and
Sunday night as a mid-level flow out of the southwest prevails
over the region while a closed 500 mb low and associated trough
moves east out of the Central Plains. Dry weather will quickly set
in on Monday as the mid-level flow shifts out of the west, and
then persist through Wednesday as 500 mb high pressure builds over
northwest Mexico and backs the flow more out of the northwest. The
progression of the high east across Deep South Texas and the Rio
Grande Valley and into the Gulf of Mexico will maintain the drier
weather for Thursday and Friday. Aside from a couple of nights of
near normal low temperatures early in the forecast period, above
normal overnight low and daytime high temperatures are likely for
a majority of the long term forecast period with limited cloud
cover and abundant sunshine in place.
&&

.MARINE (Now through Saturday Night): Surface troughing is slowly
moving south...away from the Lower Texas Coast Gulf Waters. In the
meantime...surface high pressure is expected to settle across Texas.
This has allowed the surface pressure gradient to relax somewhat.
However...although marine conditions have improved...moderate North
to Northeast winds and moderate seas will continue this evening and
through the day Saturday.

Sunday through Friday: Favorable marine conditions, featuring
light to moderate winds and low to moderate seas, are expected
along the Lower Texas Coast Sunday through Wednesday night with
two successive areas of high pressure dominating over the region.
Marine conditions will become more adverse Thursday and Friday,
with increasing winds, building seas, and Small Craft Exercise
Caution or Small Craft Advisory possible, as the high pressure
begins to interact with low pressure in the Central Plains.
&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
BAYVIEW/PORT ISABEL  64  74  65  75 /  20  20  30  30
BROWNSVILLE          62  75  63  76 /  20  30  30  30
HARLINGEN            62  76  62  76 /  20  30  30  30
MCALLEN              63  76  61  76 /  20  30  30  30
RIO GRANDE CITY      61  74  61  75 /  20  30  30  20
SOUTH PADRE ISLAND   69  75  68  75 /  20  20  30  30
&&

.BRO WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
TX...Coastal Flood Advisory until 6 PM CST this evening for TXZ251-
     256-257.

GM...None.
&&

This product is also available on the web at:
HTTP://WEATHER.GOV/RGV

Short term...Lesko-69
Long term...Tomaselli-66

HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BROWNSVILLE TX
459 AM CST FRI NOV 11 2016

TXZ248>257-121100-
ZAPATA-JIM HOGG-BROOKS-KENEDY-STARR-HIDALGO-INLAND WILLACY-
INLAND CAMERON-COASTAL WILLACY-COASTAL CAMERON-
459 AM CST FRI NOV 11 2016

THIS HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK IS FOR PORTIONS OF DEEP SOUTH
TEXAS.

.DAY ONE...TODAY AND TONIGHT

THERE IS A HIGH RISK OF RIP CURRENTS ALONG AREA BEACHES.

A COASTAL FLOOD ADVISORY IS IN EFFECT UNTIL 6 PM.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...SATURDAY THROUGH THURSDAY

MODERATE RISK OF RIP CURRENTS EXPECTED SUNDAY AND MONDAY.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

SPOTTER ACTIVATION WILL NOT BE NEEDED.

GMZ130-132-135-150-155-170-175-121100-
LAGUNA MADRE FROM THE PORT OF BROWNSVILLE TO THE ARROYO COLORADO-
LAGUNA MADRE FROM THE ARROYO COLORADO TO 5 NM NORTH OF PORT
MANSFIELD TX-
LAGUNA MADRE FROM 5 NM NORTH OF PORT MANSFIELD TO BAFFIN BAY TX-
COASTAL WATERS FROM PORT MANSFIELD TO THE RIO GRANDE OUT 20 NM-
COASTAL WATERS FROM BAFFIN BAY TO PORT MANSFIELD OUT 20 NM-
WATERS FROM PORT MANSFIELD TO THE RIO GRANDE EXTENDING FROM 20 TO
60 NM-
WATERS FROM BAFFIN BAY TO PORT MANSFIELD EXTENDING FROM 20 TO
60 NM-
459 AM CST FRI NOV 11 2016

THIS HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK IS FOR PORTIONS OF THE GULF OF
MEXICO AND THE LAGUNA MADRE.

.DAY ONE...TODAY AND TONIGHT

SMALL CRAFT ADVISORIES REMAIN IN EFFECT UNTIL 6 AM FOR THE
OFFSHORE WATERS.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...SATURDAY THROUGH THURSDAY

NO HAZARDOUS WEATHER IS EXPECTED AT THIS TIME.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

SPOTTER ACTIVATION WILL NOT BE NEEDED.