Special Weather Statement, NWS Boston/Norton, MA

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Taunton MA
215 PM EDT FRI JUL 15 2016

.SYNOPSIS...
Scattered afternoon and thunderstorms primarily across eastern
CT...RI and southeast MA, but a few more thunderstorms may reach
western and central MA this evening as storms move out of NY. The
front stalls over the area Sat and may result in isolated
T-storms. By Sunday the front moves offshore with drier and less
humid air overspreading the region. Another frontal boundary may
trigger showers and thunderstorms Mon and Tue along with a return
to warmer and more humid weather. By the middle of next week drier
and less humid weather overspreads the region behind the front.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 7 PM THIS EVENING/...
2 PM UPDATE...

Thunderstorms have started to develop over RI and SE Mass.
Already looking at a few stronger thunderstorms. The threat for a
few severe thunderstorms will continue through the afternoon
hours.

A separate area of thunderstorms which is currently over NY may
reach western Mass by this evening. a few stronger thunderstorms
will be possible.

TODAY...

* Isolated to Scattered thunderstorms across Ri and SE Mass this
  afternoon and early evening.
* A separate line of thunderstorms may reach western and central
  Mass this evening.

Weak frontal boundary over the region this morning will stall across
the 95 corridor. This boundary will be the focus for thunderstorms
this afternoon. Cyclonic flow aloft combined with some mid-level
forcing will help develop thunderstorms after noon across RI and SE
Mass. Deep mid-level moisture will also be in place as K values will
be above 30. Some these storms could be strong as 0-6 km shear
values reach 30 kts with SB cape values above 1000 j/kg. Heavy
rainfall will be the main threat within any strong thunderstorm as
PWAT values will be close to 2 inches. Gusty winds and some small
hail are a risk as well. Most of the guidance does output some QPF
over this region. The NCAR ensembles as well show the best area for
thunderstorms will be across eastern CT, RI and SE Mass. Therefore
continue to highlight this region with a chc pop. Precip chances
will wane by 6 or 7 pm as mid-level lift moves offshore.

A hot day is on tap for today as temperatures will warm into the mid
90s. Onshore southwesterly flow will keep the immediate south coast
a bit cooler. Heat index values will also reach into the mid to
upper 90s across the interior. Although this is a few degrees shy of
heat adv, this is the warmest southern New England has been
this year. Will go ahead an issue a SPS for the heat risk.

&&

.SHORT TERM /7 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH 6 PM SATURDAY/...
TONIGHT...

Cyclonic flow continues across the region as upper level shortwave
begins to approach the region. Mid-level moisture will begin to dry
out overnight resulting in a dry forecast. Still cannot rule out the
potential for fog and stratus, but do not anticipate it to be as
widespread as this morning.

Otherwise overnight temps will drop into the mid to low 60s with low
70s for the urban regions of BOS and PVD.

TOMORROW...

Upper level trough continues over the Northeast. Potent shortwave
over the eastern Great Lakes will approach New England. This wave
will weaken as it approaches so the potential for widespread
rainfall appears less than before. Cyclonic flow continues and with
marginal Cape values and mid-level moisture appears isolated showers
could develop across the region. The other limiting factor is that
heights are actually building in the mid-levels. Area with the best
potential for some showers will be across the interior, which is
closer to the upper level dynamics.

Another warm day will be on tap. 925mb temps are a few degrees
cooler than today. So anticipate temps to reach into the upper 80s to
low 90s. However with lower dewpoints, heat index values will reach
into the low 90s.

&&

.LONG TERM /SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY/...
Highlights...

* Very pleasant Sunday with dry weather and noticeably less humid
* Scattered showers/thunderstorms possible Monday through Tuesday
* Dry and less humid weather returns middle of next week

Synoptic Overview ...

Great Lakes trough finally moves east of New England Sunday...
providing subtle height rises and flow becoming more anticyclonic
aloft. By late Mon yet another northern stream trough enters the
Great lakes/southern portions of Ontario and Quebec with its
associated cold front dropping into NY state. The mid level trough
and its attending frontal boundary move across the region Tue. By
Wed and Thu of next week low amplitude northern stream mean trough
sets up over the Northeast...with core of hot subtropical ridge
centered over the southern plains.

Model/Guidance Review ...

Both deterministic and ensembles are in very good agreement this
period. Thus will follow a model blend for this forecast.

Temperatures ...

Not as hot Sunday with front offshore and post frontal airmass
overspreading the region. Highs in the 80s but with dew pts in the
50s (especially inland) humidity levels will feel noticeably more
comfortable. However higher humidity returns Monday and Tue ahead of
approaching cold front. Low level WAA will boost highs in the upper
80s and low 90s.  Behind the front for mid week...more seasonable
and lower humidity.

Precipitation ...

Column dries substantially Sunday so expecting dry weather to
prevail. Next northern stream trough and attending cold front
approach Mon and Tue yielding the risk for scattered T-storms. Dry
weather likely returns mid week behind departing front.

&&

.AVIATION /18Z FRIDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
Forecaster Confidence Levels.

Low - less than 30 percent.
Moderate - 30 to 60 percent.
High - greater than 60 percent.

isolated to scattered thunderstorms for RI and SE Mass this
afternoon and early evening. a few severe thunderstorms are
possible with damaging winds and hail expected.

Thunderstorms over central NY at this time will move east this
afternoon and may reach western Mass by this evening.

===============================================================

Today...High confidence. Isolated thunderstorms across RI and SE
MA during the afternoon. Moderate confidence thunderstorms will
reach western MA this evening.

Tonight...High confidence. Generally VFR conditions are expected
except for some patchy fog along the SE coast and valleys. Low
chance for a few showers across western terminals

Tomorrow...Moderate confidence. Mainly VFR. May see scattered showers
approach the area with locally MVFR VSBYS.

KBOS TAF...Moderate confidence. VFR. Low potential for sea breeze
development late this morning. Also a low chance for an iso
thunderstorm this afternoon.

KBDL TAF...Moderate confidence. MVFR visibilities in fog likely
for a time overnight. VFR conditions expected tomorrow.

Outlook /Saturday Night through Tuesday/...

VFR through much of this period with potential brief MVFR in any T-
storms late Mon into Tue.  High confidence thru Sunday then moderate
confidence thereafter.

&&

.MARINE...
Forecaster Confidence Levels.

Low - less than 30 percent.
Moderate - 30 to 60 percent.
High - greater than 60 percent.

CONFIDENCE...Moderate

SCA have been dropped across all waters this morning. Generally quiet
boating weather as seas will remain below 5 feet. Could see iso
thunderstorms across SE near shore waters. Otherwise developing
fog tonight and again tomorrow night may limit vsbys.

Outlook /Friday Night through Monday/ ...

Sat night and Sunday ... light winds...good vsby and dry weather.
Tranquil boating conditions.

Monday ... increasing sw winds ahead of approaching front. T-storms
possible late in the day and evening.

Tuesday ... cold front sweeps across the waters. T-storms
possible.

&&

.BOX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
CT...Air Quality Alert until 11 PM EDT this evening for CTZ003-004.
MA...Air Quality Alert until 11 PM EDT this evening for MAZ013-
     016>024.
RI...Air Quality Alert until 11 PM EDT this evening for RIZ001>008.
MARINE...None.

&&

SYNOPSIS...Nocera/Dunten
NEAR TERM...SML
SHORT TERM...Dunten
LONG TERM...Nocera
AVIATION...SML
MARINE...Nocera/Dunten

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SPECIAL WEATHER STATEMENT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TAUNTON MA
202 PM EDT FRI JUL 15 2016

MAZ018-019-151845-
EASTERN PLYMOUTH MA-WESTERN PLYMOUTH MA-
202 PM EDT FRI JUL 15 2016

...STRONG THUNDERSTORM IN NORTHWESTERN PLYMOUTH COUNTY...

AT 201 PM EDT...DOPPLER RADAR WAS TRACKING A STRONG THUNDERSTORM OVER
EAST BRIDGEWATER...OR NEAR BRIDGEWATER...MOVING NORTHEAST AT 15 MPH.

PEA SIZE HAIL AND WINDS IN EXCESS OF 40 MPH ARE POSSIBLE WITH THIS
STORM.  IN ADDITION...TORRENTIAL RAINFALL MAY RESULT IN MINOR STREET
FLOODING.

LOCATIONS IMPACTED INCLUDE...
BROCKTON...BRIDGEWATER...PEMBROKE...ROCKLAND...ABINGTON...DUXBURY...
WHITMAN...HANOVER...EAST BRIDGEWATER...NORWELL...HANSON...
HALIFAX AND WEST BRIDGEWATER.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

DO NOT DRIVE THROUGH FLOODED ROADS OR UNDERPASSES. AVOID LOW LYING
AREAS NEAR SMALL STREAMS.

&&

LAT...LON 4198 7100 4204 7104 4219 7085 4204 7072
TIME...MOT...LOC 1801Z 235DEG 13KT 4203 7096

FRANK

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SPECIAL WEATHER STATEMENT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TAUNTON MA
234 PM EDT FRI JUL 15 2016

MAZ017>019-151915-
NORTHERN BRISTOL MA-EASTERN PLYMOUTH MA-WESTERN PLYMOUTH MA-
234 PM EDT FRI JUL 15 2016

...A CLUSTER OF STRONG THUNDERSTORMS IN NORTH CENTRAL BRISTOL AND
CENTRAL PLYMOUTH COUNTIES...

AT 231 PM EDT...DOPPLER RADAR WAS TRACKING A CLUSTER OF STRONG
THUNDERSTORM OVER HALIFAX...OR NEAR BRIDGEWATER...MOVING EAST AT 35
MPH.

PEA SIZE HAIL AND WINDS IN EXCESS OF 40 MPH ARE POSSIBLE WITH THESE
STORMS.  TORRENTIAL RAINFALL AND MINOR STREET FLOODING IS ALSO
EXPECTED WITH THIS ACTIVITY ALONG WITH DANGEROUS CLOUD TO GROUND
LIGHTNING.

LOCATIONS IMPACTED INCLUDE...
PLYMOUTH...TAUNTON...BRIDGEWATER...MARSHFIELD...MIDDLEBOROUGH...
SCITUATE...PEMBROKE...DUXBURY...HANOVER...EAST BRIDGEWATER...
RAYNHAM...KINGSTON...CARVER...LAKEVILLE...NORWELL...HANSON...
FREETOWN...HALIFAX...DIGHTON AND WEST BRIDGEWATER.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

DO NOT DRIVE THROUGH FLOODED ROADS OR UNDERPASSES.

&&

LAT...LON 4199 7063 4201 7071 4197 7067 4198 7065
      4194 7063 4180 7102 4182 7109 4189 7117
      4220 7071 4217 7073 4209 7064 4205 7066
      4202 7062 4204 7065 4204 7066 4202 7068
      4200 7064 4201 7060
TIME...MOT...LOC 1831Z 247DEG 30KT 4199 7088

FRANK