Special Weather Statement, NWS Boston/Norton, MA

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TAUNTON MA
528 PM EDT THU APR 7 2016

.SYNOPSIS...
TWO COLD FRONTS MOVE THROUGH NEW ENGLAND... ONE THIS EVENING AND A
SECOND LATE TONIGHT. A THIRD COLD FRONT SWINGS THROUGH NEW ENGLAND
ON FRIDAY. LOW PRESSURE PASSING SOUTH OF NEW ENGLAND LOOKS TO
BRING ONLY LIGHT RAIN AND SNOW LATE SATURDAY AND SATURDAY NIGHT.
HIGH PRESSURE WILL BRING DRY BUT COOL CONDITIONS MONDAY...THEN
ANOTHER FRONT WILL BRING UNSETTLED CONDITIONS AROUND THE MIDDLE OF
NEXT WEEK.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM FRIDAY MORNING/...
TRIPLE-POINT LOW MOVING FROM THE POCONOS INTO THE HUDSON VALLEY
WILL PASS WEST OF OUR AREA THIS EVENING. AS IT DOES SO...IT WILL
SWING A COLD FRONT ACROSS SOUTHERN NEW ENGLAND. RADAR SHOWS ONE
FINAL BAND OF SHOWERS AND ISOLATED THUNDER MOVING JUST AHEAD OF
THE FRONT...TIMING THROUGH OUR AREA BY 23Z. BECAUSE THE OVERALL
MOTION OF THE LOW AND FRONT HAVE A STRONG NORTHWARD
COMPONENT...TIMING CONFIDENCE IS MODERATE AND THE ACTUAL FRONTAL
PASSAGE MAY VARY BY AN HOUR OR SO. STRONG LOW LEVEL JET AND HIGH
SEASONAL MOISTURE CONTENT WILL SUPPORT LOCALLY HEAVY DOWNPOURS
WITH THE FROPA.

TONIGHT...UPPER LOW AND ASSOCIATED COLD POOL SIT OVER ONTARIO AND
THE EASTERN GREAT LAKES. UPPER SHORTWAVE AND SURFACE COLD FRONT
ROTATE AROUND THE UPPER LOW AND MOVE THROUGH SRN NEW ENGLAND AFTER
MIDNIGHT. COLD POOL INSTABILITY GENERATES TOTAL TOTALS IN THE
LOWER 50S...SO SCATTERED SHOWERS SHOULD BE CONSIDERED FOR TONIGHT
ESPECIALLY FROM THE CENTRAL HILLS WESTWARD. SOUTHWEST FLOW WILL
CARRY LOWER PRECIP WATER VALUES...SO ANY SHOWERS SHOULD BE GARDEN-
VARIETY.

MIN TEMPS UPSTREAM THIS MORNING WERE 40-45. THAT LINES UP WELL
WITH OUR FORECASTED VALUES.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 AM FRIDAY MORNING THROUGH FRIDAY NIGHT/...
UPPER TROUGH AND COLD POOL MOVE OVERHEAD ON FRIDAY. THE COLD POOL
WILL BRING STEEP VERTICAL LAPSE RATES AND DESTABILIZE THE AIRMASS.
THIS MAY GENERATE A FEW SHOWERS...ALTHOUGH THE AIRMASS WILL BE
DRYING WHICH WILL WORK AGAINST SHOWER DEVELOPMENT. THIS WILL ALSO
PROMOTE A PERIOD OF MIXING DURING THE DAY WITH THE MIXED LAYER
REACHING ABOVE 850 MB AND POSSIBLY TO 800 MB.

WE WILL SHOW CHANCE POPS DURING THE DAY...MAINLY OVER WESTERN AND
CENTRAL MASS. THE MIXING WILL ALSO DRAW 20-25 KNOT WINDS TO THE
SURFACE IN GUSTS. TEMPERATURES AT THE TOP OF THE MIXED LAYER WILL
SUPPORT MAX SURFACE TEMPS IN THE LOWER 50S EAST AND THE UPPER 40S
WEST.

FRIDAY NIGHT WILL BE BETWEEN SYSTEMS. LOW CLOUDS WILL DEPART BUT
WITH INCREASING HIGH CLOUDS FROM THE NEXT APPROACHING SYSTEM. SOME
POP GRIDS SHOW CHANCE POPS INTO CT AND RI BUT NONE OF THE
OPERATIONAL MODEL RUNS SHOW ANY MEASURABLE PCPN THIS SIDE OF NYC
BEFORE 12Z SATURDAY. SO WE WILL GO AGAINST THE GRIDS AND KEEP POPS
BELOW 15 PERCENT.

&&

.LONG TERM /SATURDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
HIGHLIGHTS...

* POTENTIAL COASTAL LOW WILL BRING RAIN AND POSSIBLY A LITTLE
  SNOW SATURDAY INTO SATURDAY NIGHT
* TEMPERATURES WILL REMAIN WELL BELOW NORMAL THIS WEEKEND
* A BRIEF DRY AND NEAR NORMAL PERIOD ON MONDAY.
* ANOTHER FRONT APPROACHES LATE MONDAY-TUESDAY...STALLING OFF THE
  COAST BY MID WEEK

OVERVIEW...

12Z MODELS AND ENSEMBLES KEEP COLDER THAN NORMAL TEMPERATURES ACROSS
THE NORTHEAST U.S. AS DEEP H5 CUTOFF LOW AND AMPLIFIED LONG WAVE
TROUGHING WILL REMAIN THROUGH THE WEEKEND. THIS WILL LIFT NE LATE
SUNDAY INTO MONDAY WITH A BRIEF BREAK IN THE ACTIVE NORTHERN STREAM
PATTERN. HOWEVER...LOOKS LIKE ANOTHER LONG WAVE TROUGH WILL DIG INTO
THE NORTHEAST AGAIN THOUGH NOT QUITE AS AMPLIFIED AS THIS WEEK/S
FEATURE. MAY SEE ANOTHER SHOT OF PRECIPITATION AS ANOTHER SYSTEM
WILL MOVE ALONG IN THE FLOW EARLY NEXT WEEK...BUT MAY STALL NEAR OR
JUST OFF THE COAST BY MID WEEK.

USED A BLEND OF AVAILABLE GUIDANCE THROUGH MONDAY...THEN
TRANSITIONED OVER TO THE GEFS/ECENS FOR THE LATTER PORTION OF THE
LONG TERM PERIOD.

DETAILS...

SATURDAY INTO SUNDAY...MODERATE CONFIDENCE.

WHILE LOW PRESSURE WILL PASS S OF NEW ENGLAND...SOME OF THE 12Z
OPERATIONAL MODEL SUITE IS STARTING TO SIGNAL THAT THIS SYSTEM
WILL PASS FURTHER S. NORTHERN EDGE OF THE PRECIP LOOKS TO BE A BIT
FURTHER S THAN ON PREVIOUS RUNS...WITH THE CANADIAN GGEM FURTHEST
S. THE 12Z GFS STILL HAS PRECIP AS FAR N AS THE MASS PIKE...AN
OVERALL AVERAGE BRINGS THE BEST CHANCE FOR PRECIP ACROSS PORTIONS
OF N CT/S RI INTO S COASTAL MA LATE SAT INTO SAT NIGHT. MODELS
ALSO PUSHING THIS LOW OFFSHORE FASTER THAN IN PREVIOUS RUNS...SO
LOOKS LIKE THE PRECIP WILL TAPER OFF A BIT QUICKER. BEST QPF WILL
OCCUR DURING SAT AFTERNOON AND EARLY SAT NIGHT...THEN WILL START
TO TAPER OFF AS THE COLDER AIR WORKS IN AROUND OR AFTER MIDNIGHT
ACROSS INLAND AREAS. SOME LIGHT PRECIP WILL LINGER FROM NEAR THE
CAPE COD CANAL AND ACROSS THE CAPE...NANTUCKET AND MARTHA/S
VINEYARD THROUGH THE NIGHT. THEY MAY EVEN SEE SOME LIGHT SNOW
SHOWERS BEFORE ENDING.

OVERALL QPF EXPECTED TO BE FROM 0.1 INCHES OR LESS FROM NEAR THE
MASS PIKE UP TO PORTIONS OF CAPE ANN...RANGING TO ABOUT 0.25
INCHES FROM AROUND KIJD-KPVD-KEWB...THEN UP CLOSE TO 0.5 INCHES
ALONG THE IMMEDIATE S COAST AND THE ISLANDS.

DID USE WET BULB TEMPS TO HELP DETERMINE TRANSITION OVER TO -SN
BUT JUST NOT QUITE ENOUGH QPF LEFT. WHILE MANY SPOTS MAY SEE SOME
LIGHT SNOW SHOWERS...NOT SEE MUCH MORE THAN AN INCH AT ANY GIVEN
LOCATION. THE BEST CHANCE FOR ANY LIGHT ACCUMULATIONS LOOK TO
OCCUR ACROSS PORTIONS OF N CT/N RI INTO INTERIOR SE MA...IF THAT
HAPPENS.

WILL SEE QUITE A BIT OF SUNSHINE DURING SUNDAY AS HIGH PRES RIDGE
BUILDS ACROSS. MAY SEE SOME LEFTOVER SNOW SHOWERS ACROSS THE OUTER
CAPE AND NANTUCKET EARLY...WITH SOME ENHANCEMENT DUE TO N-NW
WINDS.

ANOTHER ISSUE WILL BE THE EASTERLY WIND COMPONENT SUNDAY NIGHT
AND HOW THIS WILL AFFECT E COASTAL LOCATIONS DURING ASTRONOMICAL
HIGH TIDE. WILL CONTINUE TO MONITOR THIS ASPECT. PLEASE SEE THE
TIDAL AND COASTAL FLOODING SECTION BELOW.

SUNDAY...MODERATE TO HIGH CONFIDENCE.

UPPER LEVEL TROUGH LIFTS NE BY SUN MORNING...WITH MORE ZONAL
UPPER FLOW IN PLACE. THIS WILL BRING HIGH PRES RIDGE QUICKLY
ACROSS THE REGION. WILL SEE MAINLY SUNNY SKIES THROUGH INTO EARLY
AFTERNOON...THEN CLOUDS WILL INCREASE FROM THE W. NW WINDS EARLY
SUNDAY WILL BACK TO W-SW AND DIMINISH DURING THE DAY.

EXPECT HIGH TEMPS MAINLY IN THE LOWER-MID 40S..EXCEPT UPPER 30S
ACROSS THE E SLOPES OF THE BERKSHIRES.

SUNDAY NIGHT-MONDAY...MODERATE CONFIDENCE.

ANOTHER FAST MOVING SHORT WAVE IN THE UPPER LEVEL FLOW WILL PUSH
SE. PRECIP MOVES IN RATHER QUICKLY DURING SUN NIGHT. TEMPS WILL
DROP BACK TO THE LOWER-MID 30S AS THE PRECIP COMMENCES...SO WILL
SEE PERIODS OF LIGHT SNOW AWAY FROM THE IMMEDIATE COAST AND MIXED
RAIN/SNOW NEAR THE SHORE. THE SNOW WILL START BY AROUND MIDNIGHT
ACROSS WESTERN AREAS...THEN SHIFT QUICKLY E. DEPENDING UPON HOW
QUICKLY THE PRECIP STARTS...THERE MAY BE UP TO AN INCH ACROSS THE
E SLOPES OF THE BERKSHIRES WITH COOLER TEMPS IN PLACE...THEN LESS
THAN A INCH ELSEWHERE AWAY FROM THE COAST.

WITH LIGHT SW WINDS IN PLACE THOUGH...WILL SEE THE SNOW CHANGE
QUICKLY OVER TO RAIN FROM S-N BY MID MORNING MONDAY. THE SNOW WILL
NOT LAST LONG EITHER AS TEMPS WILL QUICKLY RECOVER TO THE MID 40S
TO LOWER 50S BY EARLY AFTERNOON AS S-SW WINDS PICK UP. AS THE
FRONT BECOME PARALLEL TO THE SW UPPER FLOW...IT WILL BE SLOW TO
CLEAR OUT SO THE CHANCE OF SHOWERS WILL LINGER THROUGH THE DAY.

MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY...LOW TO MODERATE CONFIDENCE.

SOME TIMING ISSUES AT PLAY DURING THIS TIMEFRAME...BUT FOR NOW IT
LOOKS LIKE THE FRONT WILL LINGER ACROSS THE REGION INTO TUESDAY
BEFORE FINALLY...SLOWLY MOVING OFF THE COAST BEFORE STALLING
THERE. AT THIS POINT...MAY SEE A DECENT SHOT OF QPF MOVING ACROSS
CENTRAL AND WESTERN AREAS DURING TUE. HOWEVER...UNCERTAINTY ON
PLACEMENT OF HIGHER QPF AMOUNTS THIS FAR OUT SO LOWER CONFIDENCE.
TEMPS WILL REMAIN CLOSE TO SEASONAL NORMS ON TUESDAY WITH THE SW
WINDS AHEAD OF THE FRONT.

FOR NOW...THE FRONT SHOULD PUSH OFFSHORE BY WED...BUT MAY SEE
SOME LIGHT RAIN LINGERING ACROSS EASTERN AREAS. LOW CONFIDENCE
WITH THE EXIT OF THE FRONT AND ITS ASSOCIATED PRECIP. HAVE
FORECAST TO BE SEVERAL DEGREES COOLER THAN ON TUESDAY...BUT
UNCERTAINTY CONTINUES.

&&

.AVIATION /22Z THURSDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
FORECASTER CONFIDENCE LEVELS...

LOW...LESS THAN 30 PERCENT.
MODERATE...30 TO 60 PERCENT.
HIGH...GREATER THAN 60 PERCENT.

SHORT TERM /THROUGH FRIDAY NIGHT/...

TONIGHT...MODERATE CONFIDENCE IN TIMING. HIGH CONFIDENCE IN TREND.

COLD FRONT MOVES THROUGH SOUTHERN NEW ENGLAND THIS EVENING. THIS
WILL BE PRECEDED BY SHOWERS AND POSSIBLY A TSTM. EXPECT IFR VSBYS
AND MIXED MVFR/IFR CEILINGS IN THESE SHOWERS. LOW LEVEL WIND SHEAR
CONTINUES AHEAD OF THE FRONT.

WINDS WILL SHIFT AND DIMINISH BEHIND THE COLD FRONT AND COME FROM
THE SOUTHWEST. LLWS WILL END. THIS WILL BRING IN DRIER AIR AND
IMPROVE CIGS/VSBYS TO VFR IN RI/EASTERN MASS BY MIDNIGHT. MVFR
CIGS MAY LINGER IN PARTS OF CT AND WESTERN MASS.

FRIDAY AND FRIDAY NIGHT...HIGH CONFIDENCE. CONDITIONS IMPROVE TO
VFR. WEST WINDS GUST TO 25 KNOTS WITH BEST CHANCE IN RI/EASTERN
MASS. WINDS DIMINISH FRIDAY NIGHT.

KBOS TERMINAL...HIGH CONFIDENCE IN TAF TRENDS. MODERATE CONFIDENCE
IN TIMING.

KBDL TERMINAL...HIGH CONFIDENCE IN TAF TRENDS. MODERATE CONFIDENCE
IN TIMING.

OUTLOOK /SATURDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...

SATURDAY-SATURDAY NIGHT...MODERATE CONFIDENCE. VFR CONDITIONS
EARLY SAT MORNING...LOWERING TO MVFR CIGS/VSBYS IN AREAS OF -RA.
MAY SEE IFR CONDITIONS ALONG S COAST. PRECIP CHANGES OVER TO -SN
AWAY FROM THE S COAST AFTER 03Z-04Z WITH MAY LEAD TO SOME VSBY
RESTRICTIONS. PRECIP TAPERS OFF FROM W-E TOWARD SUN MORNING WITH
IMPROVING CONDITIONS. N WINDS GUSTING TO 25-30 KT SAT NIGHT ACROSS
CAPE COD AND THE ISLANDS.

SUNDAY...MODERATE CONFIDENCE. MVFR CONDITIONS ACROSS E MA EARLY
WILL IMPROVE TO VFR BY MID MORNING EXCEPT MAY LINGER ON THE OUTER
CAPE UNTIL MIDDAY. W-NW WIND GUSTS OF 25-30 KT ALONG CAPE COD AND
THE ISLANDS EARLY WILL DIMINISH BY EARLY AFTERNOON.

SUNDAY NIGHT-MONDAY...MODERATE CONFIDENCE. VFR CONDITIONS EARLY
SUN NIGHT...LOWERING TO MVFR-IFR IN MAINLY -RA ALONG THE COAST AND
MIXED -RA/-SN/-PL NEAR OR AFTER MIDNIGHT INLAND. EXPECT PRECIP TO
CHANGE TO -RA BY MID MORNING MONDAY...WHICH WILL CONTINUE INTO MON
NIGHT. WILL ALSO SEE PATCHY FOG. SW WINDS GUSTING TO AROUND 25 KT
ALONG THE S COAST.

TUESDAY...LOW TO MODERATE CONFIDENCE DUE TO TIMING. EXPECT MAINLY
MVFR CONDITIONS WITH POCKET OF IFR AS COLD FRONT SLOWLY CROSSES
THE REGION. MAY SEE SOME VSBY RESTRICTIONS IN POCKETS OF RAIN AND
PATCHY FOG.

&&

.MARINE...
FORECASTER CONFIDENCE LEVELS...

LOW...LESS THAN 30 PERCENT.
MODERATE...30 TO 60 PERCENT.
HIGH...GREATER THAN 60 PERCENT.

SHORT TERM /THROUGH FRIDAY NIGHT/...MODERATE-HIGH CONFIDENCE.

TONIGHT...A COLD FRONT SWINGS ACROSS THE WATERS DURING THE EVENING.
WINDS FROM THE SOUTH SHIFT FROM THE SOUTHWEST AND DIMINISH. ROUGH
SEAS WILL MAINTAIN OVERNIGHT WITH HEIGHTS OF 7 TO 12 FEET ON THE
EXPOSED WATERS. SHOWERS AND WIDELY SCATTERED TSTMS DIMINISH WITH
THE WIND SHIFT. GALES WILL CONTINUE UNTIL THE WIND SHIFT. WINDS
WILL THEN DIMINISH AND GALES WILL BE CONVERTED TO SMALL CRAFT
ADVISORIES. WINDS WILL LINGER NEAR 25 KNOTS ON MOST WATERS
OVERNIGHT BUT MAY DIP LOWER CLOSE TO SHORE.

FRIDAY...WEST WINDS WILL CONTINUE NEAR 25 KNOTS WITH ROUGH SEAS
SLOWLY SUBSIDING. SMALL CRAFT ADVISORIES WILL BE NEEDED THROUGH
THE DAY.

FRIDAY NIGHT...WINDS DIMINISH THROUGH THE NIGHT BUT SEAS LINGER
5-8 FEET OVERNIGHT ESPECIALLY ON THE OUTER WATERS. HEIGHTS CLOSER
TO SHORE MAY DIP BELOW 5 FEET. SMALL CRAFT ADVISORIES WILL
CONTINUE ON SOME WATERS BUT MAY EXPIRE CLOSER TO SHORE.

OUTLOOK /SATURDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...MODERATE CONFIDENCE.

SATURDAY THROUGH SUNDAY NIGHT...LIGHT NW WINDS TO START
SAT...THEN VEER TO NE AND INCREASE. N-NE GUSTS MAY REACH GALE
FORCE ON THE OUTER WATERS SAT NIGHT INTO EARLY SUNDAY...THEN WILL
SLOWLY DIMINISH BUT REMAIN AT SMALL CRAFT CRITERIA THROUGH SUNDAY
NIGHT. SEAS REMAIN WELL ABOVE 5 FT THROUGH SUNDAY...THEN BEGIN TO
SUBSIDE SUNDAY NIGHT BUT REMAINING AT AROUND 5 FT. VSBY
RESTRICTIONS LIKELY IN RAIN SAT INTO SAT NIGHT...WHICH MAY CHANGE
OVER TO SNOW SHOWERS SUN MORNING BEFORE ENDING.

MONDAY...WINDS BACK TO S-SW AS HIGH PRES BUILDS OFF THE COAST. SEAS
REMAIN ABOVE 5 FT.

TUESDAY...S-SW WINDS GUSTING UP TO 25-30 KT WITH SEAS AOA 5 FT. MAY
SEE VSBY RESTRICTIONS IN AREAS OF RAIN.

&&

.TIDES/COASTAL FLOODING...
ASTRONOMICALLY HIGH TIDES COMBINED WITH STRONG SOUTHERLY FLOW
WILL LEAD TO WIDESPREAD MINOR COASTAL FLOODING ALONG THE RI/MA S
COAST INCLUDING NARRAGANSETT BAY AND BUZZARDS BAY AROUND TIME OF
HIGH TIDE THIS EVENING /8-9 PM/. A COASTAL FLOOD ADVISORY REMAINS
IN EFFECT FOR THIS AREA.

WE EXPECT A STORM SURGE OF 1.4 TO 1.8 FT...SIGNIFICANTLY ABOVE
BOTH THE ESTOFS AND ETSS GUIDANCE. THIS PUTS US WELL WITHIN THE
COASTAL FLOOD ADVISORY CRITERIA BUT A LITTLE BELOW THE WARNING
THRESHOLD. POCKETS OF MODERATE COASTAL FLOODING ALONG
NARRAGANSETT BAY AND THE EXPOSED BARRIER BEACHES OF NEWPORT
COUNTY SEEM A LITTLE LESS LIKELY BASED ON CURRENT TRENDS. THE 4
PM SURGE VALUES SEEM TO HAVE PLATEAUED BETWEEN 1.0 AND 1.6 FEET
AT MOST LOCATIONS. WAVES OF 7 TO 10 FEET WILL APPROACH THE NEWPORT
COUNTY AND WESTPORT OPEN COASTLINE AND MAY CAUSE OVERWASH AND SOME
DEBRIS BEING DEPOSITED ONTO ROADWAYS. THE WEST ISLAND CAUSEWAY IN
FAIRHAVEN MAY ALSO EXPERIENCE SOME OVERWASH AND DEBRIS.

THE FORECAST CHALLENGE HAS BEEN THE TIMING OF THE STRONGEST
SOUTHERLY WINDS. ALL MODELS PEAK THE LOW LEVEL JET OVER THE RI/MA
SOUTH COAST IN THE 20Z TO 22Z TIME FRAME AND THEN SLIDE THE CORE
EAST OF THE AREA BY THE TIME OF THE 01Z...OR 9 PM EDT...HIGH TIDE.
THUS...ANTICIPATE THE HIGH TIDE TO COME IN QUICKLY AND EARLY WITH
SOME FLOODING OF SHORE ROADS POSSIBLE BY 7 PM...A GOOD 2 HOURS
BEFORE HIGH TIDE. HOWEVER...LATEST MODEL GUIDANCE SUGGESTS THAT
THE SURGE WILL START TO RELAX SOME WITHIN AN HOUR OR TWO PRIOR TO
THE EVENING HIGH TIDE. HAVE NOTED THAT THE HIGH RESOLUTION MODELS
SUCH AS THE HRRR CONTINUE TO TREND SLIGHTLY FASTER WITH THE LOW
LEVEL WIND FIELD...ALTHOUGH A 35 TO 40 KT LOW LEVEL S OR SSW WIND
DOES PERSIST THROUGH THE TIME OF HIGH TIDE.

NOTE THAT THE CAPE COD ZONE IS INCLUDED IN THE ADVISORY. THE
REASON IS PRIMARILY DUE TO THE LIKELIHOOD OF SOME MINOR COASTAL
FLOODING ALONG THE CAPE SIDE OF BUZZARDS BAY. THERE COULD ALSO BE
SOME SPLASHOVER ALONG THE IMMEDIATE SHORE IN PROVINCETOWN AS WELL
NEAR THE MIDNIGHT HIGH TIDE THERE.

THIS WEEKEND...

WE WILL HAVE TO WATCH THE TRACK AND STRENGTH OF A DEVELOPING
COASTAL STORM SATURDAY INTO SUNDAY. BOSTON HAS A VERY HIGH ASTRO
TIDE OF 12.2 FEET AROUND 2 AM SUNDAY MORNING...SO ANY EASTERLY
COMPONENT OF THE WIND WOULD RESULT IN AT LEAST MINOR COASTAL
FLOODING ALL ALONG THE MA EAST COAST. A N OR NNE WIND IS
EXPECTED AROUND THE TIME OF HIGH TIDE AND THUS THE STRETCH OF
SHORELINE MOST AT RISK WOULD LIKELY BE HULL TO PLYMOUTH TO
SANDWICH TO DENNIS AND THE NANTUCKET HARBOR AREA. IT IS CERTAINLY
WITHIN THE REALM OF POSSIBILITY THAT NE AND N FACING SHORELINES
SOUTH OF BOSTON MAY EXPERIENCE MINOR TO MODERATE IMPACTS FROM THE
LATE SATURDAY NIGHT/EARLY SUNDAY MORNING HIGH TIDE. SOME EROSION
IS ALSO POSSIBLE. NOT ENOUGH CONFIDENCE YET...HOWEVER...TO POST
ANY HEADLINES.

&&

.BOX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
CT...NONE.
MA...WIND ADVISORY UNTIL 9 PM EDT THIS EVENING FOR MAZ022>024.
     WIND ADVISORY UNTIL 7 PM EDT THIS EVENING FOR MAZ005>007-
     012>021.
     COASTAL FLOOD ADVISORY UNTIL MIDNIGHT EDT TONIGHT FOR
     MAZ020>022.
RI...WIND ADVISORY UNTIL 9 PM EDT THIS EVENING FOR RIZ008.
     WIND ADVISORY UNTIL 7 PM EDT THIS EVENING FOR RIZ001>007.
     COASTAL FLOOD ADVISORY UNTIL MIDNIGHT EDT TONIGHT FOR RIZ002-
     004>007.
MARINE...GALE WARNING UNTIL 11 PM EDT THIS EVENING FOR ANZ231>234-255-
     256.
     GALE WARNING UNTIL 8 PM EDT THIS EVENING FOR ANZ230-235>237.
     GALE WARNING UNTIL 2 AM EDT FRIDAY FOR ANZ250-254.
     GALE WARNING UNTIL 10 PM EDT THIS EVENING FOR ANZ251.

&&

SYNOPSIS...WTB/EVT
NEAR TERM...WTB
SHORT TERM...WTB
LONG TERM...EVT
AVIATION...WTB/EVT
MARINE...WTB/EVT
TIDES/COASTAL FLOODING...

HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TAUNTON MA
553 PM EDT THU APR 7 2016

CTZ002>004-MAZ002>004-008>011-026-082200-
HARTFORD CT-TOLLAND CT-WINDHAM CT-WESTERN FRANKLIN MA-
EASTERN FRANKLIN MA-NORTHERN WORCESTER MA-WESTERN HAMPSHIRE MA-
WESTERN HAMPDEN MA-EASTERN HAMPSHIRE MA-EASTERN HAMPDEN MA-
NORTHERN MIDDLESEX MA-
553 PM EDT THU APR 7 2016

THIS HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK IS FOR NORTHERN CONNECTICUT...CENTRAL
MASSACHUSETTS...EASTERN MASSACHUSETTS AND WESTERN MASSACHUSETTS.

.DAY ONE...TONIGHT.

THERE IS A LOW RISK OF LOCALIZED FLOODING OF POOR DRAINAGE AREAS
THIS EVENING.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...FRIDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY.

THERE IS A LOW RISK FOR ACCUMULATING SNOWFALL ACROSS NORTHERN
CONNECTICUT INTO RHODE ISLAND AND PORTIONS OF EASTERN
MASSACHUSETTS SATURDAY NIGHT.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

SPOTTER ACTIVATION IS NOT EXPECTED AT THIS TIME.

MAZ005>007-012>019-RIZ001-003-082200-
CENTRAL MIDDLESEX MA-WESTERN ESSEX MA-EASTERN ESSEX MA-
SOUTHERN WORCESTER MA-WESTERN NORFOLK MA-SOUTHEAST MIDDLESEX MA-
SUFFOLK MA-EASTERN NORFOLK MA-NORTHERN BRISTOL MA-
WESTERN PLYMOUTH MA-EASTERN PLYMOUTH MA-NORTHWEST PROVIDENCE RI-
WESTERN KENT RI-
553 PM EDT THU APR 7 2016

...WIND ADVISORY IN EFFECT UNTIL 7 PM EDT THIS EVENING...

THIS HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK IS FOR CENTRAL MASSACHUSETTS...
EASTERN MASSACHUSETTS...NORTHEASTERN MASSACHUSETTS...SOUTHEASTERN
MASSACHUSETTS AND NORTHERN RHODE ISLAND.

.DAY ONE...TONIGHT.

PLEASE LISTEN TO NOAA WEATHER RADIO OR GO TO WEATHER.GOV ON THE
INTERNET FOR MORE INFORMATION ABOUT THE FOLLOWING HAZARDS.

   WIND ADVISORY.

THERE IS A LOW RISK OF LOCALIZED FLOODING OF POOR DRAINAGE AREAS
THIS EVENING.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...FRIDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY.

THERE IS A LOW RISK FOR ACCUMULATING SNOWFALL ACROSS NORTHERN
CONNECTICUT...RHODE ISLANDS AND PORTIONS OF AND EASTERN
MASSACHUSETTS SATURDAY NIGHT.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

SPOTTER ACTIVATION IS NOT EXPECTED AT THIS TIME.

MAZ020-021-RIZ002-004>007-082200-
SOUTHERN BRISTOL MA-SOUTHERN PLYMOUTH MA-SOUTHEAST PROVIDENCE RI-
EASTERN KENT RI-BRISTOL RI-WASHINGTON RI-NEWPORT RI-
553 PM EDT THU APR 7 2016

...WIND ADVISORY IN EFFECT UNTIL 7 PM EDT THIS EVENING...
...COASTAL FLOOD ADVISORY IN EFFECT UNTIL MIDNIGHT EDT TONIGHT...

THIS HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK IS FOR SOUTHEASTERN
MASSACHUSETTS...NORTHERN RHODE ISLAND AND SOUTHERN RHODE ISLAND.

.DAY ONE...TONIGHT.

PLEASE LISTEN TO NOAA WEATHER RADIO OR GO TO WEATHER.GOV ON THE
INTERNET FOR MORE INFORMATION ABOUT THE FOLLOWING HAZARDS.

   WIND ADVISORY.
   COASTAL FLOOD ADVISORY.

THERE IS A LOW RISK OF LOCALIZED FLOODING OF POOR DRAINAGE AREAS
INTO THIS EVENING.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...FRIDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY.

THERE IS A LOW RISK FOR ACCUMULATING SNOWFALL ACROSS NORTHERN
CONNECTICUT...RHODE ISLAND AND PORTIONS OF EASTERN MASSACHUSETTS
SATURDAY NIGHT.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

SPOTTER ACTIVATION IS NOT EXPECTED AT THIS TIME.

MAZ023-024-RIZ008-082200-
DUKES MA-NANTUCKET MA-BLOCK ISLAND RI-
553 PM EDT THU APR 7 2016

...WIND ADVISORY IN EFFECT UNTIL 9 PM EDT THIS EVENING...

THIS HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK IS FOR SOUTHEASTERN MASSACHUSETTS
AND SOUTHERN RHODE ISLAND.

.DAY ONE...TONIGHT.

PLEASE LISTEN TO NOAA WEATHER RADIO OR GO TO WEATHER.GOV ON THE
INTERNET FOR MORE INFORMATION ABOUT THE FOLLOWING HAZARDS.

   WIND ADVISORY.

THERE IS A LOW RISK OF LOCALIZED FLOODING OF POOR DRAINAGE AREAS
INTO THIS EVENING.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...FRIDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY.

NO HAZARDOUS WEATHER IS EXPECTED AT THIS TIME.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

SPOTTER ACTIVATION IS NOT EXPECTED AT THIS TIME.

MAZ022-082200-
BARNSTABLE MA-
553 PM EDT THU APR 7 2016

...WIND ADVISORY IN EFFECT UNTIL 9 PM EDT THIS EVENING...
...COASTAL FLOOD ADVISORY IN EFFECT UNTIL MIDNIGHT EDT TONIGHT...

THIS HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK IS FOR SOUTHEASTERN MASSACHUSETTS.

.DAY ONE...TONIGHT.

PLEASE LISTEN TO NOAA WEATHER RADIO OR GO TO WEATHER.GOV ON THE
INTERNET FOR MORE INFORMATION ABOUT THE FOLLOWING HAZARDS.

   WIND ADVISORY.
   COASTAL FLOOD ADVISORY.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...FRIDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY.

NO HAZARDOUS WEATHER IS EXPECTED AT THIS TIME.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

SPOTTER ACTIVATION IS NOT EXPECTED AT THIS TIME.

ANZ231>234-255-256-082200-
CAPE COD BAY-NANTUCKET SOUND-VINEYARD SOUND-BUZZARDS BAY-
COASTAL WATERS EXTENDING OUT TO 25 NM SOUTH OF MARTHAS VINEYARD AND
NANTUCKET-
COASTAL WATERS FROM MONTAUK NY TO MARTHAS VINEYARD EXTENDING OUT TO
20 NM SOUTH OF BLOCK ISLAND-
553 PM EDT THU APR 7 2016

...GALE WARNING IN EFFECT UNTIL 11 PM EDT THIS EVENING...

THIS HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK IS FOR MASSACHUSETTS COASTAL WATERS
AND RHODE ISLAND COASTAL WATERS.

.DAY ONE...TONIGHT.

PLEASE LISTEN TO NOAA WEATHER RADIO OR GO TO WEATHER.GOV ON THE
INTERNET FOR MORE INFORMATION ABOUT THE FOLLOWING HAZARDS.

   GALE WARNING.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...FRIDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY.

THERE IS A LOW PROBABILITY FOR NORTHEAST GALES SATURDAY NIGHT.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

SPOTTER ACTIVATION IS NOT EXPECTED AT THIS TIME.

ANZ250-254-082200-
COASTAL WATERS EAST OF IPSWICH BAY AND THE STELLWAGEN BANK NATIONAL
MARINE SANCTUARY-
COASTAL WATERS FROM PROVINCETOWN MA TO CHATHAM MA TO NANTUCKET MA
OUT 20 NM-
553 PM EDT THU APR 7 2016

...GALE WARNING IN EFFECT UNTIL 2 AM EDT FRIDAY...

THIS HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK IS FOR MASSACHUSETTS COASTAL WATERS.

.DAY ONE...TONIGHT.

PLEASE LISTEN TO NOAA WEATHER RADIO OR GO TO WEATHER.GOV ON THE
INTERNET FOR MORE INFORMATION ABOUT THE FOLLOWING HAZARDS.

   GALE WARNING.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...FRIDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY.

THERE IS A LOW PROBABILITY FOR NORTHEAST GALES SATURDAY NIGHT.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

SPOTTER ACTIVATION IS NOT EXPECTED AT THIS TIME.

ANZ251-082200-
MASSACHUSETTS BAY AND IPSWICH BAY-
553 PM EDT THU APR 7 2016

...GALE WARNING IN EFFECT UNTIL 10 PM EDT THIS EVENING...

THIS HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK IS FOR MASSACHUSETTS COASTAL WATERS.

.DAY ONE...TONIGHT.

PLEASE LISTEN TO NOAA WEATHER RADIO OR GO TO WEATHER.GOV ON THE
INTERNET FOR MORE INFORMATION ABOUT THE FOLLOWING HAZARDS.

   GALE WARNING.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...FRIDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY.

THERE IS A LOW PROBABILITY FOR NORTHEAST GALES SATURDAY NIGHT.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

SPOTTER ACTIVATION IS NOT EXPECTED AT THIS TIME.

ANZ230-235>237-082200-
BOSTON HARBOR-RHODE ISLAND SOUND-NARRAGANSETT BAY-BLOCK ISLAND SOUND-
553 PM EDT THU APR 7 2016

...GALE WARNING IN EFFECT UNTIL 8 PM EDT THIS EVENING...

THIS HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK IS FOR MASSACHUSETTS COASTAL WATERS
AND RHODE ISLAND COASTAL WATERS.

.DAY ONE...TONIGHT.

PLEASE LISTEN TO NOAA WEATHER RADIO OR GO TO WEATHER.GOV ON THE
INTERNET FOR MORE INFORMATION ABOUT THE FOLLOWING HAZARDS.

   GALE WARNING.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...FRIDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY.

THERE IS A LOW PROBABILITY FOR NORTHEAST GALES SATURDAY NIGHT.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

SPOTTER ACTIVATION IS NOT EXPECTED AT THIS TIME.

FOR THE LATEST UPDATES...PLEASE VISIT OUR WEBPAGE AT
WWW.WEATHER.GOV/BOSTON

YOU CAN FOLLOW US ON FACEBOOK AT
WWW.FACEBOOK.COM/NWSBOSTON

YOU CAN FOLLOW US ON TWITTER AT
@NWSBOSTON

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT...SUMMARY
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TAUNTON MA
620 PM EDT THU APR 07 2016

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

0357 PM     NON-TSTM WND DMG LEYDEN                  42.70N  72.62W
04/07/2016                   FRANKLIN           MA   AMATEUR RADIO

            TREE DOWN ON WIRES ON MID COUNTY ROAD

0556 PM     NON-TSTM WND GST WELLFLEET               41.94N  70.03W
04/07/2016  M60 MPH          BARNSTABLE         MA   HAM RADIO

            HAM RADIO

0614 PM     NON-TSTM WND GST 1 W CHAPPAQUOIT         41.60N  70.67W
04/07/2016  M58 MPH          ANZ234             MA   MESONET

            MESONET

&&

AED

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TAUNTON MA
623 PM EDT THU APR 07 2016

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

0452 PM     NON-TSTM WND DMG MONTAGUE                42.53N  72.53W
04/07/2016                   FRANKLIN           MA   AMATEUR RADIO

            TREE AND WIRES DOWN

&&

AED

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TAUNTON MA
628 PM EDT THU APR 07 2016

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

0620 PM     NON-TSTM WND DMG HUNTINGTON              42.23N  72.88W
04/07/2016                   HAMPDEN            MA   AMATEUR RADIO

            LARGE BRANCHES DOWN

&&

AED

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TAUNTON MA
629 PM EDT THU APR 07 2016

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

0505 PM     NON-TSTM WND DMG NORWELL                 42.17N  70.78W
04/07/2016                   PLYMOUTH           MA   AMATEUR RADIO

            DOWNED TREE LIMBS

&&

AED

SPECIAL WEATHER STATEMENT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TAUNTON MA
631 PM EDT THU APR 7 2016

MAZ002>004-008>011-026-072330-
WESTERN FRANKLIN MA-NORTHERN WORCESTER MA-
NORTHWEST MIDDLESEX COUNTY MA-EASTERN HAMPDEN MA-EASTERN FRANKLIN MA-
WESTERN HAMPDEN MA-WESTERN HAMPSHIRE MA-EASTERN HAMPSHIRE MA-
631 PM EDT THU APR 7 2016

...LINE OF HEAVY DOWNPOURS AND STRONG WIND GUSTS WILL AFFECT
NORTHWESTERN HARTFORD...HAMPSHIRE...CENTRAL HAMPDEN...NORTHWESTERN
WORCESTER...FRANKLIN AND NORTHWESTERN MIDDLESEX COUNTIES THROUGH
730 PM...

AT 625 PM EDT...DOPPLER RADAR WAS TRACKING A LINE OF HEAVY SHOWERS
WITH STRONG WIND GUSTS ALONG A LINE EXTENDING FROM NEAR WEST
WARDSBORO TO NEAR GRANVILLE...AND MOVING NORTHEAST AT 40 MPH.

WIND GUSTS BETWEEN 45 AND 55 MPH ARE LIKELY WITH THESE STORMS. THE
WINDS ASSOCIATED WITH THIS LINE OF SHOWERS MAY BRING DOWN BRANCHES.

LOCATIONS IMPACTED INCLUDE...
SPRINGFIELD...CHICOPEE...WESTFIELD...LEOMINSTER...FITCHBURG...HOLYOKE...
AMHERST...NORTHAMPTON...AGAWAM...WEST SPRINGFIELD...GREENFIELD...ORANGE...
DEERFIELD...LUDLOW...GARDNER...SOUTH HADLEY...EASTHAMPTON...BELCHERTOWN...
ATHOL AND WINCHENDON.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

STAY INDOORS UNTIL THIS LINE OF SHOWERS AND WIND GUSTS PASS BY. THE
WINDS WILL LIKELY BE STRONG ENOUGH TO DOWN SOME BRANCHES ACROSS WEST
CENTRAL MASSACHUSETTS.

&&

LAT...LON 4274 7288 4271 7181 4246 7182 4203 7281
      4204 7290
TIME...MOT...LOC 2225Z 235DEG 46KT 4299 7282 4210 7284

THOMPSON

SPECIAL WEATHER STATEMENT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TAUNTON MA
711 PM EDT THU APR 7 2016

MAZ018>024-080000-
DUKES MA-SOUTHERN PLYMOUTH MA-NANTUCKET MA-EASTERN PLYMOUTH MA-
SOUTHERN BRISTOL MA-BARNSTABLE MA-WESTERN PLYMOUTH MA-
711 PM EDT THU APR 7 2016

...HEAVY RAIN WITH LOCALIZED STREET FLOODING WILL CONTINUE THROUGH 8
PM FOR SOUTHEAST MASSACHUSETTS INCLUDING THE CAPE AND ISLANDS...

MORE HEAVY RAIN WILL MOVE ACROSS SOUTHERN BRISTOL AND PLYMOUTH
COUNTIES AS WELL AS ACROSS THE CAPE AND ISLANDS THROUGH 8 PM. THE
RAIN WILL EXACERBATE PONDING OF WATER ALREADY ON AREA ROADS. A FEW
POOR DRAINAGE AREAS IN THE FALL RIVER AND NEW BEDFORD AREAS MAY BE
UNSAFE TO PASS THROUGH. THE APPROACH OF THE HIGH TIDE MAY CAUSE
WATER TO DRAIN ESPECIALLY SLOW IN THE FALL RIVER AND NEW BEDFORD
URBAN AREAS.

THE STRONGEST WINDS HAVE NOW MOVED INTO THE GULF OF
MAINE...BUT GUSTS TO 40 MPH ARE STILL POSSIBLE THROUGH 8 PM.

THE HEAVY RAIN SHOULD DIMINISH ACROSS SOUTHERN BRISTOL AND SOUTHERN
PLYMOUTH COUNTIES AFTER 8 PM...AND ACROSS THE CAPE AND ISLANDS
AROUND OR SHORTLY AFTER 9 PM.

LOCATIONS IMPACTED INCLUDE...
NEW BEDFORD...PLYMOUTH...BARNSTABLE...DARTMOUTH...FALMOUTH...MARSHFIELD...
NANTUCKET...BREWSTER...MARION...OAK BLUFFS...EDGARTOWN...TISBURY...
PROVINCETOWN...AQUINNAH...YARMOUTH...MIDDLEBOROUGH...WAREHAM...SANDWICH...
BOURNE AND FAIRHAVEN.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

DO NOT DRIVE THROUGH FLOODED ROADS OR UNDERPASSES. AVOID LOW LYING
AREAS NEAR SMALL STREAMS.

&&

LAT...LON 4125 6997 4164 7028 4164 7035 4128 7022
      4155 7048 4142 7045 4155 7051 4135 7045
      4131 7079 4175 7063 4160 7096 4125 7080
      4125 7081 4151 7109 4213 7068 4176 7047
      4180 7001 4207 7024 4208 7023 4200 7002
TIME...MOT...LOC 2301Z 220DEG 60KT 4135 7136 4055 7049

THOMPSON