Gale Watch 36, NWS Boston/Norton, MA

644 
WHUS71 KBOX 171624
MWWBOX

URGENT - MARINE WEATHER MESSAGE
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TAUNTON MA
1124 AM EST SAT DEC 17 2016

ANZ250-254>256-180030-
/O.CON.KBOX.SC.Y.0146.000000T0000Z-161218T1200Z/
/O.CON.KBOX.GL.A.0036.161218T1200Z-161218T2200Z/
COASTAL WATERS EAST OF IPSWICH BAY AND THE STELLWAGEN BANK
NATIONAL MARINE SANCTUARY-
COASTAL WATERS FROM PROVINCETOWN MA TO CHATHAM MA TO NANTUCKET MA
OUT 20 NM-
COASTAL WATERS EXTENDING OUT TO 25 NM SOUTH OF MARTHAS VINEYARD
AND NANTUCKET-
COASTAL WATERS FROM MONTAUK NY TO MARTHAS VINEYARD EXTENDING OUT
TO 20 NM SOUTH OF BLOCK ISLAND-
1124 AM EST SAT DEC 17 2016

...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY REMAINS IN EFFECT UNTIL 7 AM EST SUNDAY...
...GALE WATCH REMAINS IN EFFECT FROM SUNDAY MORNING THROUGH
SUNDAY AFTERNOON...

* WINDS AND SEAS...SOUTHWEST WINDS 15 TO 25 KT. GUSTS TO 30 KT
  TODAY...AND UP TO 40 KT SUNDAY. SEAS 8 TO 13 FEET.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

A SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY MEANS THAT WIND SPEEDS OF 25 TO 33 KNOTS
ARE EXPECTED TO PRODUCE HAZARDOUS WAVE CONDITIONS TO SMALL CRAFT.
INEXPERIENCED MARINERS...ESPECIALLY THOSE OPERATING SMALLER
VESSELS SHOULD AVOID NAVIGATING IN THESE CONDITIONS.

A GALE WATCH IS ISSUED WHEN THE RISK OF GALE FORCE WINDS OF 34 TO
47 KNOTS HAS SIGNIFICANTLY INCREASED...BUT THE SPECIFIC TIMING
AND/OR LOCATION IS STILL UNCERTAIN. IT IS INTENDED TO PROVIDE
ADDITIONAL LEAD TIME FOR MARINERS WHO MAY WISH TO CONSIDER
ALTERING THEIR PLANS.

&&

$$

ANZ231>235-237-180030-
/O.CON.KBOX.SC.Y.0146.000000T0000Z-161218T1200Z/
/O.CON.KBOX.GL.A.0036.161218T1200Z-161218T2200Z/
CAPE COD BAY-NANTUCKET SOUND-VINEYARD SOUND-BUZZARDS BAY-
RHODE ISLAND SOUND-BLOCK ISLAND SOUND-
1124 AM EST SAT DEC 17 2016

...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY REMAINS IN EFFECT UNTIL 7 AM EST SUNDAY...
...GALE WATCH REMAINS IN EFFECT FROM SUNDAY MORNING THROUGH
SUNDAY AFTERNOON...

* WINDS AND SEAS...SOUTHWEST WINDS 15 TO 25 KT. GUSTS TO 25 KT
  TODAY...AND UP TO 35 KT SUNDAY. SEAS 6 TO 9 FEET.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

A SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY MEANS THAT WIND SPEEDS OF 25 TO 33 KNOTS
ARE EXPECTED TO PRODUCE HAZARDOUS WAVE CONDITIONS TO SMALL CRAFT.
INEXPERIENCED MARINERS...ESPECIALLY THOSE OPERATING SMALLER
VESSELS SHOULD AVOID NAVIGATING IN THESE CONDITIONS.

A GALE WATCH IS ISSUED WHEN THE RISK OF GALE FORCE WINDS OF 34 TO
47 KNOTS HAS SIGNIFICANTLY INCREASED...BUT THE SPECIFIC TIMING
AND/OR LOCATION IS STILL UNCERTAIN. IT IS INTENDED TO PROVIDE
ADDITIONAL LEAD TIME FOR MARINERS WHO MAY WISH TO CONSIDER
ALTERING THEIR PLANS.

&&

$$

ANZ251-180030-
/O.CON.KBOX.GL.A.0036.161218T1200Z-161218T2200Z/
MASSACHUSETTS BAY AND IPSWICH BAY-
1124 AM EST SAT DEC 17 2016

...GALE WATCH REMAINS IN EFFECT FROM SUNDAY MORNING THROUGH
SUNDAY AFTERNOON...

* WINDS AND SEAS...SOUTHWEST WINDS 10 TO 15 KT WITH GUSTS UP TO 
  35 KT SUNDAY. SEAS 3 TO 5 FEET.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

A GALE WATCH IS ISSUED WHEN THE RISK OF GALE FORCE WINDS OF 34 TO
47 KNOTS HAS SIGNIFICANTLY INCREASED...BUT THE SPECIFIC TIMING
AND/OR LOCATION IS STILL UNCERTAIN. IT IS INTENDED TO PROVIDE
ADDITIONAL LEAD TIME FOR MARINERS WHO MAY WISH TO CONSIDER
ALTERING THEIR PLANS.

&&

$$

FOR THE LATEST UPDATES...PLEASE VISIT OUR WEBPAGE AT
WWW.WEATHER.GOV/BOSTON

YOU CAN FOLLOW US ON FACEBOOK AT
WWW.FACEBOOK.COM/NWSBOSTON

YOU CAN FOLLOW US ON TWITTER AT
@NWSBOSTON

262 
WHUS71 KBOX 172222
MWWBOX

URGENT - MARINE WEATHER MESSAGE
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TAUNTON MA
522 PM EST SAT DEC 17 2016

ANZ231>235-237-180630-
/O.CAN.KBOX.SC.Y.0146.000000T0000Z-161218T1200Z/
/O.UPG.KBOX.GL.A.0036.161218T1200Z-161218T2200Z/
/O.NEW.KBOX.GL.W.0052.161218T1200Z-161218T2200Z/
CAPE COD BAY-NANTUCKET SOUND-VINEYARD SOUND-BUZZARDS BAY-
RHODE ISLAND SOUND-BLOCK ISLAND SOUND-
522 PM EST SAT DEC 17 2016

...GALE WARNING IN EFFECT FROM 7 AM TO 5 PM EST SUNDAY...
...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY IS CANCELLED...

THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE IN TAUNTON HAS ISSUED A GALE
WARNING...WHICH IS IN EFFECT FROM 7 AM TO 5 PM EST SUNDAY. THE
SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY HAS BEEN CANCELLED. THE GALE WATCH IS NO
LONGER IN EFFECT.

* WINDS AND SEAS...SOUTHWEST WINDS 15 TO 25 KT WITH GUSTS UP TO 
  35 KT. SEAS 6 TO 9 FEET.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

A GALE WARNING MEANS WINDS OF 34 TO 47 KNOTS ARE IMMINENT OR
OCCURRING. OPERATING A VESSEL IN GALE CONDITIONS REQUIRES
EXPERIENCE AND PROPERLY EQUIPPED VESSELS. IT IS HIGHLY
RECOMMENDED THAT MARINERS WITHOUT THE PROPER EXPERIENCE SEEK SAFE
HARBOR PRIOR TO THE ONSET OF GALE CONDITIONS.

&&

$$

ANZ250-254-180630-
/O.UPG.KBOX.SC.Y.0146.000000T0000Z-161218T1200Z/
/O.UPG.KBOX.GL.A.0036.161218T1200Z-161218T2200Z/
/O.NEW.KBOX.GL.W.0052.161218T1100Z-161219T0200Z/
COASTAL WATERS EAST OF IPSWICH BAY AND THE STELLWAGEN BANK
NATIONAL MARINE SANCTUARY-
COASTAL WATERS FROM PROVINCETOWN MA TO CHATHAM MA TO NANTUCKET MA
OUT 20 NM-
522 PM EST SAT DEC 17 2016

...GALE WARNING IN EFFECT FROM 6 AM TO 9 PM EST SUNDAY...

THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE IN TAUNTON HAS ISSUED A GALE
WARNING...WHICH IS IN EFFECT FROM 6 AM TO 9 PM EST SUNDAY. THE
SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY IS NO LONGER IN EFFECT. THE GALE WATCH IS NO
LONGER IN EFFECT.

* WINDS AND SEAS...SOUTHWEST WINDS 20 TO 30 KT WITH GUSTS UP TO 
  35 KT. SEAS 7 TO 10 FEET.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

A GALE WARNING MEANS WINDS OF 34 TO 47 KNOTS ARE IMMINENT OR
OCCURRING. OPERATING A VESSEL IN GALE CONDITIONS REQUIRES
EXPERIENCE AND PROPERLY EQUIPPED VESSELS. IT IS HIGHLY
RECOMMENDED THAT MARINERS WITHOUT THE PROPER EXPERIENCE SEEK SAFE
HARBOR PRIOR TO THE ONSET OF GALE CONDITIONS.

&&

$$

ANZ255-256-180630-
/O.UPG.KBOX.SC.Y.0146.000000T0000Z-161218T1200Z/
/O.NEW.KBOX.GL.W.0052.161218T1100Z-161218T2100Z/
/O.UPG.KBOX.GL.A.0036.161218T1200Z-161218T2200Z/
COASTAL WATERS EXTENDING OUT TO 25 NM SOUTH OF MARTHAS VINEYARD
AND NANTUCKET-
COASTAL WATERS FROM MONTAUK NY TO MARTHAS VINEYARD EXTENDING OUT
TO 20 NM SOUTH OF BLOCK ISLAND-
522 PM EST SAT DEC 17 2016

...GALE WARNING IN EFFECT FROM 6 AM TO 4 PM EST SUNDAY...

THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE IN TAUNTON HAS ISSUED A GALE
WARNING...WHICH IS IN EFFECT FROM 6 AM TO 4 PM EST SUNDAY. THE
SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY IS NO LONGER IN EFFECT. THE GALE WATCH IS NO
LONGER IN EFFECT.

* WINDS AND SEAS...SOUTHWEST WINDS 20 TO 30 KT WITH GUSTS UP TO 
  35 KT. SEAS 9 TO 14 FEET.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

A GALE WARNING MEANS WINDS OF 34 TO 47 KNOTS ARE IMMINENT OR
OCCURRING. OPERATING A VESSEL IN GALE CONDITIONS REQUIRES
EXPERIENCE AND PROPERLY EQUIPPED VESSELS. IT IS HIGHLY
RECOMMENDED THAT MARINERS WITHOUT THE PROPER EXPERIENCE SEEK SAFE
HARBOR PRIOR TO THE ONSET OF GALE CONDITIONS.

&&

$$

ANZ251-180630-
/O.UPG.KBOX.GL.A.0036.161218T1200Z-161218T2200Z/
/O.NEW.KBOX.GL.W.0052.161218T1300Z-161218T2000Z/
MASSACHUSETTS BAY AND IPSWICH BAY-
522 PM EST SAT DEC 17 2016

...GALE WARNING IN EFFECT FROM 8 AM TO 3 PM EST SUNDAY...

THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE IN TAUNTON HAS ISSUED A GALE
WARNING...WHICH IS IN EFFECT FROM 8 AM TO 3 PM EST SUNDAY. THE
GALE WATCH IS NO LONGER IN EFFECT.

* WINDS AND SEAS...SOUTHWEST WINDS 15 TO 25 KT WITH GUSTS UP TO 
  35 KT. SEAS 2 TO 4 FEET.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

A GALE WARNING MEANS WINDS OF 34 TO 47 KNOTS ARE IMMINENT OR
OCCURRING. OPERATING A VESSEL IN GALE CONDITIONS REQUIRES
EXPERIENCE AND PROPERLY EQUIPPED VESSELS. IT IS HIGHLY
RECOMMENDED THAT MARINERS WITHOUT THE PROPER EXPERIENCE SEEK SAFE
HARBOR PRIOR TO THE ONSET OF GALE CONDITIONS.

&&

$$

ANZ236-180630-
/O.NEW.KBOX.SC.Y.0147.161218T0900Z-161219T0200Z/
NARRAGANSETT BAY-
522 PM EST SAT DEC 17 2016

...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY IN EFFECT FROM 4 AM TO 9 PM EST SUNDAY...

THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE IN TAUNTON HAS ISSUED A SMALL CRAFT
ADVISORY...WHICH IS IN EFFECT FROM 4 AM TO 9 PM EST SUNDAY.

* WINDS AND SEAS...SOUTHWEST WINDS 10 TO 20 KT WITH GUSTS UP TO 
  30 KT. SEAS 2 TO 4 FEET.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

A SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY MEANS THAT WIND SPEEDS OF 25 TO 33 KNOTS
ARE EXPECTED TO PRODUCE HAZARDOUS WAVE CONDITIONS TO SMALL CRAFT.
INEXPERIENCED MARINERS...ESPECIALLY THOSE OPERATING SMALLER
VESSELS SHOULD AVOID NAVIGATING IN THESE CONDITIONS.

&&

$$

ANZ230-180630-
/O.NEW.KBOX.SC.Y.0147.161218T1100Z-161219T0200Z/
BOSTON HARBOR-
522 PM EST SAT DEC 17 2016

...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY IN EFFECT FROM 6 AM TO 9 PM EST SUNDAY...

THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE IN TAUNTON HAS ISSUED A SMALL CRAFT
ADVISORY...WHICH IS IN EFFECT FROM 6 AM TO 9 PM EST SUNDAY.

* WINDS AND SEAS...SOUTHWEST WINDS 10 TO 20 KT WITH GUSTS UP TO 
  30 KT. SEAS AROUND 2 FEET.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

A SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY MEANS THAT WIND SPEEDS OF 25 TO 33 KNOTS
ARE EXPECTED TO PRODUCE HAZARDOUS WAVE CONDITIONS TO SMALL CRAFT.
INEXPERIENCED MARINERS...ESPECIALLY THOSE OPERATING SMALLER
VESSELS SHOULD AVOID NAVIGATING IN THESE CONDITIONS.

&&

$$

FOR THE LATEST UPDATES...PLEASE VISIT OUR WEBPAGE AT
WWW.WEATHER.GOV/BOSTON

YOU CAN FOLLOW US ON FACEBOOK AT
WWW.FACEBOOK.COM/NWSBOSTON

YOU CAN FOLLOW US ON TWITTER AT
@NWSBOSTON

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Taunton MA
329 AM EST Sat Dec 17 2016

.SYNOPSIS...

Warm air moving up the coast brings a snowy start to the day with
snow then changing to rain by midday in southern and coastal
sections, and snow changing to rain or freezing rain in northern
Mass this afternoon. Temperatures will continue to climb tonight,
bringing rain that lingers into Sunday. Clearing out Sunday night
into Monday, high pressure dominates the weather pattern through
the midweek period. Overall seasonable conditions. Next chance of
disturbed weather is on Thursday as an area of low pressure sweeps
NE across the Great Lakes region bringing S New England mostly
rain and warmer than average conditions brought about by S moist
flow.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING/...

High pressure has moved off to the east. A 50-60 knot southwest
jet at 850 mb is bringing warmer air northward, running over the
top of the colder air left over from Thursday and Friday. This
overrunning is generating sufficiently deep lift to generate
precipitation. Much of the lift early in the morning was in
Maryland and PA, but with the jet shifting northeast into New
England we expect the effects to increase here this morning.

The column starts cold enough for snow, and a north ageostrophic
wind will attempt to hold the cold air in place for a time
especially over Northern and Western MA. Meanwhile warmer air
works into the South Coast and Coastal Plain later this morning
changing the snow to rain.

Models continue to show low pressure area forming near the South
NJ coast this morning and moving northeast past Cape Cod this
afternoon. This may support the ageostrophic drainage flow in the
interior...holding the cold air in Northern and Western MA and
possibly parts of Northern CT.

AS the coastal low moves into the Gulf of Maine, the deeper
moisture should exit northeast with it leaving a more shallow
layer of moisture. This will mean clouds and either drizzle or
freezing drizzle depending on the temperature.

Snow accumulations... No significant changes in our thoughts on
snow amounts. Four to six inches is reasonable across much of
Southern New England, with lesser amounts toward the South Coast
where the change to rain will be sooner. There remains a chance of
greater values in a few spots, but those chances are at or below
25 percent. Not enough confidence in this happening to upgrade
any place to a Winter Storm Warning.

Icing... During the transition, there could be a brief period of
sleet or freezing rain. This would make untreated traveling
surfaces slippery. The time window for this may extend later in
the day in Northern MA, where the low level cold air may linger
until the end of today/s precipitation.

Flash Freeze Potential... As coastal low pressure passes east of
us this afternoon, it is possible that shifting winds would draw
shallow low level cold air back to the south and southeast and
drop temps quickly below freezing. This may result in the
potential of a flash freeze along with pockets of freezing drizzle
by late afternoon. The corridor from Boston to Hartford would have
the highest risk for this. There is a lower risk that this cooling
could reach the Providence to Taunton corridor.

Headlines... A Winter Weather Advisory continues for today.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH 6 PM SUNDAY/...

Tonight...

Deep enough moisture for clouds and drizzle, perhaps some freezing
drizzle. Strong low level southwest jet continues and gets
stronger with speeds 70-75 knots at 850 mb. This will dislodge
the last of the low level cold air and should bring rising temps
overnight with all areas above freezing and the warmest areas
reaching the lower 50s by morning.

Higher aloft, a northern stream shortwave swings through the Great
Lakes led by a strong upper jet and upper venting. This will
rebuild the deep lift, with increasing pops overnight. We have
maintained likely to categorical pops for the overnight hours into
Sunday morning.

Sunday...

Surface low pressure associated with the upper trough and its jet.
This moves from the Ohio Valley to the Canadian border with New
England. We remain in the warm sector most of the day, until the
low swings a cold front through our area during the afternoon and
evening. Model data shows the strong low level winds extending
close to the ground with 30-35 knots at 1000 mb along the coast
and possibly the coastal plain. A warm sector low level wind in
the cold season normally has a tough time reaching the ground. But
sufficient rainfall could create a moist adiabatic channel to
bring the stronger winds to the surface. Enough potential for a
gusty day ahead of the cold front.

&&

.LONG TERM /SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY/...

*/ Highlights...

 - Black ice threat potential for the Monday morning commute
 - Seasonable, dry conditions during the early-half of next week
 - Anomalously warmer and wet Thursday into Thursday night
 - Inside-runner pattern preferred going forward

*/ Overview...

A more seasonable, wetter outlook into the holiday week. As it has
been highlighted the past several days, the WPO / EPO are trending
positive with forecast ridge deamplification across the N Pacific
yielding a progressive flow of milder air and energy into the CONUS
resulting in general H5 height rises. Considering the ENSO signal of
La Nina along with both the NAO / AO trending strongly positive, the
expectation is that Arctic air will become locked up around the pole
with less intrusion S into the CONUS as a ridge-trough-ridge pattern
setups across the CONUS. Systems speeding in off the Pacific undergo
lee cyclogenesis and troughing E of the Rockies, becoming stretched
and sheared downstream over a more dominant ridge over the Atlantic
modified by the milder air off the Pacific. No downstream blocking
to speak of, the flow is progressive. Any disturbances across the
region will be relatively quick with respect to outcomes. Preference
towards a storm track where systems emerging out of the Great Plains
trend as inside-runners with respect to the NE CONUS placing S New
England on the warmer-wetter side of the envelope. Per consensus of
model guidance prefer an ensemble blend along with the 17.0z GFS for
the long-term forecast period. Any targets of opportunity will be
noted in the daily discussion below.

*/ Daily Discussion...

Sunday night into Monday morning...

Flash freeze potential. Despite notable differences in both model
forecast 2m temperatures and ageostrophic flow, still anticipating a
touch of Arctic air. That and light winds overall, there remains a
risk of residual moisture from earlier rains freezing along area
roads if left untreated. Thus the threat of black ice during the
Monday morning commute. For much of the area, lows dropping down
into the teens to single digits. Evaluating MOS guidance closely as
conditions will be clearing and winds will be becoming light.

Monday through Thursday morning...

Going to keep it dry beneath the influence of high pressure. Light
winds, opportunities for radiational cooling overnight. Overall
seasonable as the airmass aloft moderates ahead of a disturbance
emerging out of the Great Plains.

Thursday into the Weekend...

A series of inside-runner disturbances with a track N/E across the E
Great Lakes impacts S New England the first on Thursday with another
potentially over the weekend. Largely absent high pressure to the N,
a lack of cold air ahead any systems emerging from the W. Can not
rule out some initial wintry precipitation types but brief. Should
see a quick changeover to plain rain. Somewhat welcoming as systems
tap into continental / maritime tropical airmass from the SE CONUS
and Gulf of Mexico. Highly anomalous for mid- to late-Dec tongue of
high theta-E and precipitable waters to 1.5 inches (record breaking
based on sounding climatology). Though a progressive flow pattern as
previously mentioned, systems with short residency, they'll still
have the propensity of delivering a decent slug of rain if preferred
model forecast blend holds out given accompanying synoptics, deep-
layer forcing. Possible 1 to 2 inch rainfall outcomes, definitely
looking at some drought relief. Negative showalters, a conditionally
unstable profile aloft, can not rule out some heavy downpours in
addition to gusty S/SW winds, possibly reaching wind advisory-level
criteria. Something to keep an eye out on. Still well out in Day 6
of the forecast, low confidence, but however, there is decent signal
between ensemble means and the 17.0z GFS for Thursday into Thursday
night.

&&

.AVIATION /09Z SATURDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...

Forecaster Confidence Levels...

Low - less than 30 percent.
Moderate - 30 to 60 percent.
High - greater than 60 percent.

Short Term /through Sunday/...

Today... Moderate to high confidence in trends, but lower
confidence in specific timing.

Developing snow will moisten the dry air at lowest levels and
bring lowering ceilings and vsbys. Ultimately expect IFR and some
LIFR conditions this morning in the snow. As the snow changes to
rain from south to north, the lower vsbys should improve to 2-3
miles and possibly a little higher. Ceilings should remain
500-1000 feet, possibly a few spots at 1200 feet.

Low level cold air may linger in Northern/Western MA, so that any
change of precip would be from snow to freezing rain. But the bulk
of the steady precip should end this afternoon even in those
northern areas.  Pockets of drizzle and freezing drizzle may
persist into the early evening.

Tonight and Sunday... Moderate confidence.

IFR cigs and developing MVFR vsbys as another area of rain moves
in after midnight. Light freezing drizzle may bring light icing
early tonight, but warming temperatures should eliminate this
problem before midnight. Rain continues Sunday morning and then
ends from NW to SE during the afternoon. Winds from the Southwest
in the morning with potential for gusts to 30 knots. These winds
then shift from the West mid to late afternoon.

KBOS TAF...Accumulating snow this morning changes to rain roughly
midday (16-18Z). However, colder air may race back into the
region from the NNW by late afternoon potentially resulting in a
flash freeze. Some freezing drizzle is also possible. Warming
temperatures during the night should end this threat.

KBDL TAF...Accumulating snow for for several hours before
transitioning to a period of sleet or rain early afternoon
(17-19Z). Rain tapers off in the afternoon.

Outlook /Sunday night through Thursday/...Moderate confidence.

VFR mostly. Blustery NW winds into Monday morning with gusts up to
30 kts, diminishing and remaining light NW into early Tuesday by
which point winds remain S/SW, increasing ahead of an area of
disturbed weather into Thursday with both cigs and vsbys dropping
with mostly RA.

&&

.MARINE...

Forecaster Confidence Levels.

Low - less than 30 percent.
Moderate - 30 to 60 percent.
High - greater than 60 percent.

Short Term /through Sunday/...Moderate to High confidence.

Today...

Increasing low level south to southwest winds with gusts 25-30
knots. The steady south-southwest flow will build seas with 5 to
9 foot heights this afternoon on the outer waters and exposed
southern waters. Three is an outside chance of Gale Force gusts,
but we expect winds of that strength to remain higher in the
atmosphere.  A Small Craft Advisory continues for these areas.

Tonight and Sunday...

Southwest winds continue with wind speeds within 1000 feet of the
surface reaching 35 knots, and 70 to 75 knots at 5000 feet above
the surface. This will continue to build seas with heights by
Sunday reaching 5 to 10 feet on exposed waters close to land and
10 to 15 feet on the outer waters.

We will maintain a Small Craft Advisory for tonight. The question
is whether the strong winds aloft will reach the surface on
Sunday. It can be tough to bring such winds to the surface if
temps are warmer aloft than at the sea surface. But the strong
winds will be close. We will issue a Gale Watch for most of the
waters for Sunday. As we get more information today, we will be
able to convert this to either a Small Craft Advisory or a Gale
Warning.

Outlook /Sunday night through Thursday/...Moderate confidence.

Seas subsiding as NW winds diminish through Monday. Thereafter high
pressure remains in control through Thursday which will allow for NW
winds to turn S/SW remaining below small craft advisory thresholds.
Only concern is into Thursday ahead of a wet-weather disturbance
which will bring an increase in S winds and likely increase in wave
action.

&&

.BOX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...

CT...Winter Weather Advisory until 3 PM EST this afternoon for
     CTZ002>004.
MA...Winter Weather Advisory until 1 PM EST this afternoon for
     MAZ007-013>022.
     Winter Weather Advisory until 3 PM EST this afternoon for
     MAZ002>006-008>012-026.
RI...Winter Weather Advisory until 1 PM EST this afternoon for
     RIZ002>007.
     Winter Weather Advisory until 3 PM EST this afternoon for
     RIZ001.
MARINE...Gale Watch from Sunday morning through Sunday afternoon for
     ANZ231>235-237-250-251-254>256.
     Small Craft Advisory from 7 AM this morning to 7 AM EST Sunday
     for ANZ231>235-237-250-254>256.

&&

SYNOPSIS...WTB/Sipprell
NEAR TERM...WTB/Sipprell
SHORT TERM...WTB
LONG TERM...Sipprell
AVIATION...WTB/Sipprell
MARINE...WTB/Sipprell

HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TAUNTON MA
303 AM EST SAT DEC 17 2016

CTZ002>004-MAZ002>006-008>012-026-RIZ001-180815-
HARTFORD CT-TOLLAND CT-WINDHAM CT-WESTERN FRANKLIN MA-
EASTERN FRANKLIN MA-NORTHERN WORCESTER MA-CENTRAL MIDDLESEX MA-
WESTERN ESSEX MA-WESTERN HAMPSHIRE MA-WESTERN HAMPDEN MA-
EASTERN HAMPSHIRE MA-EASTERN HAMPDEN MA-SOUTHERN WORCESTER MA-
NORTHERN MIDDLESEX MA-NORTHWEST PROVIDENCE RI-
303 AM EST SAT DEC 17 2016

...WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY IN EFFECT UNTIL 3 PM EST THIS AFTERNOON...

THIS HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK IS FOR NORTHERN CONNECTICUT...WESTERN
AND CENTRAL MASSACHUSETTS...AS WELL AS NORTHERN RHODE ISLAND.

.DAY ONE...TODAY AND TONIGHT.

PLEASE LISTEN TO NOAA WEATHER RADIO OR GO TO WEATHER.GOV ON THE
INTERNET FOR MORE INFORMATION ABOUT THE FOLLOWING HAZARDS.

   WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...SUNDAY THROUGH FRIDAY.

NO HAZARDOUS WEATHER IS EXPECTED AT THIS TIME.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

WEATHER SPOTTERS ARE ENCOURAGED TO REPORT SIGNIFICANT WEATHER
CONDITIONS ACCORDING TO STANDARD OPERATING PROCEDURES.

MAZ007-013>022-RIZ002>007-180815-
EASTERN ESSEX MA-WESTERN NORFOLK MA-SOUTHEAST MIDDLESEX MA-
SUFFOLK MA-EASTERN NORFOLK MA-NORTHERN BRISTOL MA-
WESTERN PLYMOUTH MA-EASTERN PLYMOUTH MA-SOUTHERN BRISTOL MA-
SOUTHERN PLYMOUTH MA-BARNSTABLE MA-SOUTHEAST PROVIDENCE RI-
WESTERN KENT RI-EASTERN KENT RI-BRISTOL RI-WASHINGTON RI-NEWPORT RI-
303 AM EST SAT DEC 17 2016

...WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY IN EFFECT UNTIL 1 PM EST THIS AFTERNOON...

THIS HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK IS FOR EASTERN AND SOUTHEASTERN
MASSACHUSETTS...AS WELL AS CENTRAL AND SOUTHERN RHODE ISLAND.

.DAY ONE...TODAY AND TONIGHT.

PLEASE LISTEN TO NOAA WEATHER RADIO OR GO TO WEATHER.GOV ON THE
INTERNET FOR MORE INFORMATION ABOUT THE FOLLOWING HAZARDS.

   WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...SUNDAY THROUGH FRIDAY.

SUNDAY...THERE IS A RISK THAT AREAS ALONG THE S/SE COAST WILL
REACH WIND ADVISORY CRITERIA...PERHAPS MORE SO ON SUSTAIN WINDS
EXCEEDING 30 MPH THAN GUSTS GETTING OVER 45 MPH.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

WEATHER SPOTTERS ARE ENCOURAGED TO REPORT SIGNIFICANT WEATHER
CONDITIONS ACCORDING TO STANDARD OPERATING PROCEDURES.

MAZ023-024-RIZ008-180815-
DUKES MA-NANTUCKET MA-BLOCK ISLAND RI-
303 AM EST SAT DEC 17 2016

THIS HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK IS FOR SOUTHEASTERN MASSACHUSETTS
AND SOUTHERN RHODE ISLAND.

.DAY ONE...TODAY AND TONIGHT.

SNOW BRIEFLY THIS MORNING WILL YIELD VISIBILITIES DOWN TO A HALF
MILE. SHOULD SEE A QUICK TRANSITION TO RAIN GOING NO LATER THAN
MID-MORNING.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...SUNDAY THROUGH FRIDAY.

SUNDAY...THERE IS A RISK THAT AREAS ALONG THE S/SE COAST WILL
REACH WIND ADVISORY CRITERIA...PERHAPS MORE SO ON SUSTAIN WINDS
EXCEEDING 30 MPH THAN GUSTS GETTING OVER 45 MPH.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

WEATHER SPOTTERS ARE ENCOURAGED TO REPORT SIGNIFICANT WEATHER
CONDITIONS ACCORDING TO STANDARD OPERATING PROCEDURES.

ANZ231>235-237-250-251-254>256-180815-
CAPE COD BAY-NANTUCKET SOUND-VINEYARD SOUND-BUZZARDS BAY-
RHODE ISLAND SOUND-BLOCK ISLAND SOUND-
COASTAL WATERS EAST OF IPSWICH BAY AND THE STELLWAGEN BANK NATIONAL
MARINE SANCTUARY-MASSACHUSETTS BAY AND IPSWICH BAY-
COASTAL WATERS FROM PROVINCETOWN MA TO CHATHAM MA TO NANTUCKET MA
OUT 20 NM-
COASTAL WATERS EXTENDING OUT TO 25 NM SOUTH OF MARTHAS VINEYARD AND
NANTUCKET-
COASTAL WATERS FROM MONTAUK NY TO MARTHAS VINEYARD EXTENDING OUT TO
20 NM SOUTH OF BLOCK ISLAND-
303 AM EST SAT DEC 17 2016

...GALE WATCH IN EFFECT FROM SUNDAY MORNING THROUGH SUNDAY
AFTERNOON...

THIS HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK IS FOR MASSACHUSETTS COASTAL WATERS
AND RHODE ISLAND COASTAL WATERS.

.DAY ONE...TODAY AND TONIGHT.

NO HAZARDOUS WEATHER IS EXPECTED AT THIS TIME.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...SUNDAY THROUGH FRIDAY.

PLEASE LISTEN TO NOAA WEATHER RADIO OR GO TO WEATHER.GOV ON THE
INTERNET FOR MORE INFORMATION ABOUT THE FOLLOWING HAZARDS.

   GALE WATCH

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

SPOTTER ACTIVATION IS NOT EXPECTED AT THIS TIME.

ANZ230-236-180815-
BOSTON HARBOR-NARRAGANSETT BAY-
303 AM EST SAT DEC 17 2016

THIS HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK IS FOR MASSACHUSETTS COASTAL WATERS
AND RHODE ISLAND COASTAL WATERS.

.DAY ONE...TODAY AND TONIGHT.

NO HAZARDOUS WEATHER IS EXPECTED AT THIS TIME.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...SUNDAY THROUGH FRIDAY.

NO HAZARDOUS WEATHER IS EXPECTED AT THIS TIME.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

SPOTTER ACTIVATION IS NOT EXPECTED AT THIS TIME.

FOR THE LATEST UPDATES...PLEASE VISIT OUR WEBPAGE AT
WWW.WEATHER.GOV/BOSTON

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