Gale Watch 35, NWS Boston/Norton, MA

167 
WHUS71 KBOX 140315
MWWBOX

URGENT - MARINE WEATHER MESSAGE
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TAUNTON MA
1015 PM EST TUE DEC 13 2016

ANZ250-141115-
/O.CON.KBOX.GL.A.0035.161215T0900Z-161216T0000Z/
COASTAL WATERS EAST OF IPSWICH BAY AND THE STELLWAGEN BANK
NATIONAL MARINE SANCTUARY-
1015 PM EST TUE DEC 13 2016

...GALE WATCH REMAINS IN EFFECT FROM LATE WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH
THURSDAY EVENING...

* WINDS AND SEAS...WEST WINDS 20 TO 30 KT WITH GUSTS UP TO 35 
  KT. SEAS 4 TO 7 FEET.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

A GALE WATCH IS ISSUED WHEN THE RISK OF GALE FORCE WINDS OF 34 TO
47 KNOTS HAS SIGNIFICANTLY INCREASED...BUT THE SPECIFIC TIMING
AND/OR LOCATION IS STILL UNCERTAIN. IT IS INTENDED TO PROVIDE
ADDITIONAL LEAD TIME FOR MARINERS WHO MAY WISH TO CONSIDER
ALTERING THEIR PLANS.

&&

$$

ANZ231-251-141115-
/O.CON.KBOX.GL.A.0035.161215T0900Z-161216T0000Z/
CAPE COD BAY-MASSACHUSETTS BAY AND IPSWICH BAY-
1015 PM EST TUE DEC 13 2016

...GALE WATCH REMAINS IN EFFECT FROM LATE WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH
THURSDAY EVENING...

* WINDS AND SEAS...WEST WINDS 15 TO 25 KT WITH GUSTS UP TO 35 
  KT. SEAS 2 TO 4 FEET.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

A GALE WATCH IS ISSUED WHEN THE RISK OF GALE FORCE WINDS OF 34 TO
47 KNOTS HAS SIGNIFICANTLY INCREASED...BUT THE SPECIFIC TIMING
AND/OR LOCATION IS STILL UNCERTAIN. IT IS INTENDED TO PROVIDE
ADDITIONAL LEAD TIME FOR MARINERS WHO MAY WISH TO CONSIDER
ALTERING THEIR PLANS.

&&

$$

ANZ254>256-141115-
/O.CON.KBOX.GL.A.0035.161215T0900Z-161216T0000Z/
COASTAL WATERS FROM PROVINCETOWN MA TO CHATHAM MA TO NANTUCKET MA
OUT 20 NM-
COASTAL WATERS EXTENDING OUT TO 25 NM SOUTH OF MARTHAS VINEYARD
AND NANTUCKET-
COASTAL WATERS FROM MONTAUK NY TO MARTHAS VINEYARD EXTENDING OUT
TO 20 NM SOUTH OF BLOCK ISLAND-
1015 PM EST TUE DEC 13 2016

...GALE WATCH REMAINS IN EFFECT FROM LATE WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH
THURSDAY EVENING...

* WINDS AND SEAS...WEST WINDS 15 TO 25 KT WITH GUSTS UP TO 35 
  KT. SEAS 7 TO 10 FEET.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

A GALE WATCH IS ISSUED WHEN THE RISK OF GALE FORCE WINDS OF 34 TO
47 KNOTS HAS SIGNIFICANTLY INCREASED...BUT THE SPECIFIC TIMING
AND/OR LOCATION IS STILL UNCERTAIN. IT IS INTENDED TO PROVIDE
ADDITIONAL LEAD TIME FOR MARINERS WHO MAY WISH TO CONSIDER
ALTERING THEIR PLANS.

&&

$$

ANZ232>235-237-141115-
/O.CON.KBOX.GL.A.0035.161215T0900Z-161216T0000Z/
NANTUCKET SOUND-VINEYARD SOUND-BUZZARDS BAY-RHODE ISLAND SOUND-
BLOCK ISLAND SOUND-
1015 PM EST TUE DEC 13 2016

...GALE WATCH REMAINS IN EFFECT FROM LATE WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH
THURSDAY EVENING...

* WINDS AND SEAS...WEST WINDS 15 TO 25 KT WITH GUSTS UP TO 35 
  KT. SEAS 4 TO 7 FEET.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

A GALE WATCH IS ISSUED WHEN THE RISK OF GALE FORCE WINDS OF 34 TO
47 KNOTS HAS SIGNIFICANTLY INCREASED...BUT THE SPECIFIC TIMING
AND/OR LOCATION IS STILL UNCERTAIN. IT IS INTENDED TO PROVIDE
ADDITIONAL LEAD TIME FOR MARINERS WHO MAY WISH TO CONSIDER
ALTERING THEIR PLANS.

&&

$$

ANZ230-236-141115-
/O.CON.KBOX.GL.A.0035.161215T0900Z-161216T0000Z/
BOSTON HARBOR-NARRAGANSETT BAY-
1015 PM EST TUE DEC 13 2016

...GALE WATCH REMAINS IN EFFECT FROM LATE WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH
THURSDAY EVENING...

* WINDS AND SEAS...WEST WINDS 10 TO 20 KT WITH GUSTS UP TO 35 
  KT. SEAS 1 TO 3 FEET.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

A GALE WATCH IS ISSUED WHEN THE RISK OF GALE FORCE WINDS OF 34 TO
47 KNOTS HAS SIGNIFICANTLY INCREASED...BUT THE SPECIFIC TIMING
AND/OR LOCATION IS STILL UNCERTAIN. IT IS INTENDED TO PROVIDE
ADDITIONAL LEAD TIME FOR MARINERS WHO MAY WISH TO CONSIDER
ALTERING THEIR PLANS.

&&

$$

FOR THE LATEST UPDATES...PLEASE VISIT OUR WEBPAGE AT
WWW.WEATHER.GOV/BOSTON

YOU CAN FOLLOW US ON FACEBOOK AT
WWW.FACEBOOK.COM/NWSBOSTON

YOU CAN FOLLOW US ON TWITTER AT
@NWSBOSTON

480 
WHUS71 KBOX 140854
MWWBOX

URGENT - MARINE WEATHER MESSAGE
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TAUNTON MA
354 AM EST WED DEC 14 2016

ANZ250-141700-
/O.EXT.KBOX.GL.A.0035.161215T0900Z-161216T1200Z/
COASTAL WATERS EAST OF IPSWICH BAY AND THE STELLWAGEN BANK
NATIONAL MARINE SANCTUARY-
354 AM EST WED DEC 14 2016

...GALE WATCH NOW IN EFFECT FROM LATE TONIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY
MORNING...

* WINDS AND SEAS...WEST WINDS 25 TO 35 KT WITH GUSTS UP TO 50 
  KT. SEAS 6 TO 9 FEET.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

A GALE WATCH IS ISSUED WHEN THE RISK OF GALE FORCE WINDS OF 34 TO
47 KNOTS HAS SIGNIFICANTLY INCREASED...BUT THE SPECIFIC TIMING
AND/OR LOCATION IS STILL UNCERTAIN. IT IS INTENDED TO PROVIDE
ADDITIONAL LEAD TIME FOR MARINERS WHO MAY WISH TO CONSIDER
ALTERING THEIR PLANS.

&&

$$

ANZ231-251-141700-
/O.EXT.KBOX.GL.A.0035.161215T0900Z-161216T1200Z/
CAPE COD BAY-MASSACHUSETTS BAY AND IPSWICH BAY-
354 AM EST WED DEC 14 2016

...GALE WATCH NOW IN EFFECT FROM LATE TONIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY
MORNING...

* WINDS AND SEAS...WEST WINDS 20 TO 30 KT WITH GUSTS UP TO 50 
  KT. SEAS 3 TO 5 FEET.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

A GALE WATCH IS ISSUED WHEN THE RISK OF GALE FORCE WINDS OF 34 TO
47 KNOTS HAS SIGNIFICANTLY INCREASED...BUT THE SPECIFIC TIMING
AND/OR LOCATION IS STILL UNCERTAIN. IT IS INTENDED TO PROVIDE
ADDITIONAL LEAD TIME FOR MARINERS WHO MAY WISH TO CONSIDER
ALTERING THEIR PLANS.

&&

$$

ANZ254>256-141700-
/O.EXT.KBOX.GL.A.0035.161215T0900Z-161216T1200Z/
COASTAL WATERS FROM PROVINCETOWN MA TO CHATHAM MA TO NANTUCKET MA
OUT 20 NM-
COASTAL WATERS EXTENDING OUT TO 25 NM SOUTH OF MARTHAS VINEYARD
AND NANTUCKET-
COASTAL WATERS FROM MONTAUK NY TO MARTHAS VINEYARD EXTENDING OUT
TO 20 NM SOUTH OF BLOCK ISLAND-
354 AM EST WED DEC 14 2016

...GALE WATCH NOW IN EFFECT FROM LATE TONIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY
MORNING...

* WINDS AND SEAS...WEST WINDS 25 TO 35 KT WITH GUSTS UP TO 50 
  KT. SEAS 6 TO 11 FEET.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

A GALE WATCH IS ISSUED WHEN THE RISK OF GALE FORCE WINDS OF 34 TO
47 KNOTS HAS SIGNIFICANTLY INCREASED...BUT THE SPECIFIC TIMING
AND/OR LOCATION IS STILL UNCERTAIN. IT IS INTENDED TO PROVIDE
ADDITIONAL LEAD TIME FOR MARINERS WHO MAY WISH TO CONSIDER
ALTERING THEIR PLANS.

&&

$$

ANZ232>235-237-141700-
/O.EXT.KBOX.GL.A.0035.161215T0900Z-161216T1200Z/
NANTUCKET SOUND-VINEYARD SOUND-BUZZARDS BAY-RHODE ISLAND SOUND-
BLOCK ISLAND SOUND-
354 AM EST WED DEC 14 2016

...GALE WATCH NOW IN EFFECT FROM LATE TONIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY
MORNING...

* WINDS AND SEAS...WEST WINDS 20 TO 30 KT WITH GUSTS UP TO 50 
  KT. SEAS 3 TO 5 FEET.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

A GALE WATCH IS ISSUED WHEN THE RISK OF GALE FORCE WINDS OF 34 TO
47 KNOTS HAS SIGNIFICANTLY INCREASED...BUT THE SPECIFIC TIMING
AND/OR LOCATION IS STILL UNCERTAIN. IT IS INTENDED TO PROVIDE
ADDITIONAL LEAD TIME FOR MARINERS WHO MAY WISH TO CONSIDER
ALTERING THEIR PLANS.

&&

$$

ANZ230-236-141700-
/O.EXT.KBOX.GL.A.0035.161215T0900Z-161216T1200Z/
BOSTON HARBOR-NARRAGANSETT BAY-
354 AM EST WED DEC 14 2016

...GALE WATCH NOW IN EFFECT FROM LATE TONIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY
MORNING...

* WINDS AND SEAS...WEST WINDS 15 TO 25 KT WITH GUSTS UP TO 45 
  KT. SEAS 2 TO 4 FEET.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

A GALE WATCH IS ISSUED WHEN THE RISK OF GALE FORCE WINDS OF 34 TO
47 KNOTS HAS SIGNIFICANTLY INCREASED...BUT THE SPECIFIC TIMING
AND/OR LOCATION IS STILL UNCERTAIN. IT IS INTENDED TO PROVIDE
ADDITIONAL LEAD TIME FOR MARINERS WHO MAY WISH TO CONSIDER
ALTERING THEIR PLANS.

&&

$$

FOR THE LATEST UPDATES...PLEASE VISIT OUR WEBPAGE AT
WWW.WEATHER.GOV/BOSTON

YOU CAN FOLLOW US ON FACEBOOK AT
WWW.FACEBOOK.COM/NWSBOSTON

YOU CAN FOLLOW US ON TWITTER AT
@NWSBOSTON

334 
WHUS71 KBOX 141953
MWWBOX

URGENT - MARINE WEATHER MESSAGE
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TAUNTON MA
253 PM EST WED DEC 14 2016

ANZ250-150400-
/O.CAN.KBOX.GL.A.0035.161215T0900Z-161216T1200Z/
/O.NEW.KBOX.SR.A.0003.161215T2300Z-161216T0900Z/
COASTAL WATERS EAST OF IPSWICH BAY AND THE STELLWAGEN BANK
NATIONAL MARINE SANCTUARY-
253 PM EST WED DEC 14 2016

...STORM WATCH IN EFFECT FROM THURSDAY EVENING THROUGH LATE
THURSDAY NIGHT...

THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE IN TAUNTON HAS ISSUED A STORM
WATCH...WHICH IS IN EFFECT FROM THURSDAY EVENING THROUGH LATE
THURSDAY NIGHT. 

* WINDS AND SEAS...WEST WINDS 30 TO 40 KT WITH GUSTS UP TO 60 
  KT. SEAS 6 TO 9 FEET.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

A STORM WATCH IS ISSUED WHEN THE RISK OF STORM FORCE WINDS OF
48 TO 63 KNOTS HAS SIGNIFICANTLY INCREASED...BUT THE SPECIFIC
TIMING AND/OR LOCATION IS STILL UNCERTAIN. IT IS INTENDED TO
PROVIDE ADDITIONAL LEAD TIME FOR MARINERS WHO MAY WISH TO
CONSIDER ALTERING THEIR PLANS.

&&

$$

ANZ231-251-150400-
/O.CAN.KBOX.GL.A.0035.161215T0900Z-161216T1200Z/
/O.NEW.KBOX.SR.A.0003.161215T2300Z-161216T0900Z/
CAPE COD BAY-MASSACHUSETTS BAY AND IPSWICH BAY-
253 PM EST WED DEC 14 2016

...STORM WATCH IN EFFECT FROM THURSDAY EVENING THROUGH LATE
THURSDAY NIGHT...

THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE IN TAUNTON HAS ISSUED A STORM
WATCH...WHICH IS IN EFFECT FROM THURSDAY EVENING THROUGH LATE
THURSDAY NIGHT. 

* WINDS AND SEAS...WEST WINDS 25 TO 35 KT WITH GUSTS UP TO 60 
  KT. SEAS 3 TO 5 FEET.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

A STORM WATCH IS ISSUED WHEN THE RISK OF STORM FORCE WINDS OF
48 TO 63 KNOTS HAS SIGNIFICANTLY INCREASED...BUT THE SPECIFIC
TIMING AND/OR LOCATION IS STILL UNCERTAIN. IT IS INTENDED TO
PROVIDE ADDITIONAL LEAD TIME FOR MARINERS WHO MAY WISH TO
CONSIDER ALTERING THEIR PLANS.

&&

$$

ANZ254>256-150400-
/O.CAN.KBOX.GL.A.0035.161215T0900Z-161216T1200Z/
/O.NEW.KBOX.SR.A.0003.161215T2300Z-161216T0900Z/
COASTAL WATERS FROM PROVINCETOWN MA TO CHATHAM MA TO NANTUCKET MA
OUT 20 NM-
COASTAL WATERS EXTENDING OUT TO 25 NM SOUTH OF MARTHAS VINEYARD
AND NANTUCKET-
COASTAL WATERS FROM MONTAUK NY TO MARTHAS VINEYARD EXTENDING OUT
TO 20 NM SOUTH OF BLOCK ISLAND-
253 PM EST WED DEC 14 2016

...STORM WATCH IN EFFECT FROM THURSDAY EVENING THROUGH LATE
THURSDAY NIGHT...

THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE IN TAUNTON HAS ISSUED A STORM
WATCH...WHICH IS IN EFFECT FROM THURSDAY EVENING THROUGH LATE
THURSDAY NIGHT. 

* WINDS AND SEAS...WEST WINDS 30 TO 40 KT WITH GUSTS UP TO 60 
  KT. SEAS 6 TO 11 FEET.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

A STORM WATCH IS ISSUED WHEN THE RISK OF STORM FORCE WINDS OF
48 TO 63 KNOTS HAS SIGNIFICANTLY INCREASED...BUT THE SPECIFIC
TIMING AND/OR LOCATION IS STILL UNCERTAIN. IT IS INTENDED TO
PROVIDE ADDITIONAL LEAD TIME FOR MARINERS WHO MAY WISH TO
CONSIDER ALTERING THEIR PLANS.

&&

$$

ANZ232>235-237-150400-
/O.CAN.KBOX.GL.A.0035.161215T0900Z-161216T1200Z/
/O.NEW.KBOX.SR.A.0003.161215T2300Z-161216T0900Z/
NANTUCKET SOUND-VINEYARD SOUND-BUZZARDS BAY-RHODE ISLAND SOUND-
BLOCK ISLAND SOUND-
253 PM EST WED DEC 14 2016

...STORM WATCH IN EFFECT FROM THURSDAY EVENING THROUGH LATE
THURSDAY NIGHT...

THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE IN TAUNTON HAS ISSUED A STORM
WATCH...WHICH IS IN EFFECT FROM THURSDAY EVENING THROUGH LATE
THURSDAY NIGHT. 

* WINDS AND SEAS...WEST WINDS 25 TO 35 KT WITH GUSTS UP TO 55 
  KT. SEAS 3 TO 5 FEET.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

A STORM WATCH IS ISSUED WHEN THE RISK OF STORM FORCE WINDS OF
48 TO 63 KNOTS HAS SIGNIFICANTLY INCREASED...BUT THE SPECIFIC
TIMING AND/OR LOCATION IS STILL UNCERTAIN. IT IS INTENDED TO
PROVIDE ADDITIONAL LEAD TIME FOR MARINERS WHO MAY WISH TO
CONSIDER ALTERING THEIR PLANS.

&&

$$

ANZ230-236-150400-
/O.CAN.KBOX.GL.A.0035.161215T0900Z-161216T1200Z/
/O.NEW.KBOX.SR.A.0003.161215T2300Z-161216T0900Z/
BOSTON HARBOR-NARRAGANSETT BAY-
253 PM EST WED DEC 14 2016

...STORM WATCH IN EFFECT FROM THURSDAY EVENING THROUGH LATE
THURSDAY NIGHT...

THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE IN TAUNTON HAS ISSUED A STORM
WATCH...WHICH IS IN EFFECT FROM THURSDAY EVENING THROUGH LATE
THURSDAY NIGHT. 

* WINDS AND SEAS...WEST WINDS 15 TO 25 KT WITH GUSTS UP TO 55 
  KT. SEAS 2 TO 4 FEET.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

A STORM WATCH IS ISSUED WHEN THE RISK OF STORM FORCE WINDS OF
48 TO 63 KNOTS HAS SIGNIFICANTLY INCREASED...BUT THE SPECIFIC
TIMING AND/OR LOCATION IS STILL UNCERTAIN. IT IS INTENDED TO
PROVIDE ADDITIONAL LEAD TIME FOR MARINERS WHO MAY WISH TO
CONSIDER ALTERING THEIR PLANS.

&&

$$

FOR THE LATEST UPDATES...PLEASE VISIT OUR WEBPAGE AT
WWW.WEATHER.GOV/BOSTON

YOU CAN FOLLOW US ON FACEBOOK AT
WWW.FACEBOOK.COM/NWSBOSTON

YOU CAN FOLLOW US ON TWITTER AT
@NWSBOSTON

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Taunton MA
420 PM EST Tue Dec 13 2016

.SYNOPSIS...
A moisture starved cold front moves across the region tonight and
will be accompanied by light snow showers or flurries. Dry but
colder air then overspreads the region Wed. Arctic air moves in
Thursday and Friday with dangerously cold wind chills and the
potential for damaging winds Thursday night. Wintry mix early
Saturday transitions to a rainy remainder of the weekend.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM WEDNESDAY MORNING/...
Tonight...

Latest water vapory imagery nicely depicts a short wave trough
entering the OH valley. Surface obs confirm this feature generating
snow and reaching the ground over OH eastward into western-central
PA. Models show deep layer moisture and lift splitting into two
areas...one area tracking into northern New England and the other
region over the ocean south of New England. Thus MA/RI and CT in the
middle of these two regions. Thus only expecting light snow showers
or flurries with greatest risk for a minor accumulation (a coating
to an inch) across western MA. May only see scattered flurries
across Eastern MA and RI.  Over southeast MA surface and blyr temps
will likely be warm enough toward morning to support rain showers
or a mix of rain/snow showers.

Not as cold as last night as surface winds have already shifted to
the south. Lows tonight will be in the upper 20s to lower 30s...mid
to upper 30s along the south coast including Cape Cod and the
islands.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 AM WEDNESDAY MORNING THROUGH WEDNESDAY NIGHT/...
Wednesday...

Any morning rain/snow showers quickly comes to an end 7 am to 10
am...midday across Cape Cod and the islands. Then deep layer
subsidence on the backside of the departing short wave results
morning clouds giving way to sunshine. Post frontal airmass is only
seasonably cold...so looking at highs tomorrow mainly in the upper
30s to lower 40s. Good news will be abundant sunshine by late
morning into the afternoon however a modest west wind of 10-20 mph
will add to the chilly conditions.

Wednesday night...

Arctic front approaches the region. Models showing steep low level
lapse rates on the order of 8-9C/KM along and behind the front. This
combined with sufficient low level moisture and frontal convergence
will likely result in scattered snow squalls with a low risk of a
few heavy squalls. Will have to watch this closely given potential
impact to the Thu morning commute as these squalls can deposit an
inch of snow in a short period of time and accompanied by brief low
vsbys. Also ahead of the arctic front in the west to southwest
surface winds ocean effect snow showers are possible along the south
coast of MA and RI as cold air streams across the relatively warm
ocean waters. Ahead of the front winds could gusts up to 40 mph per
model soundings. Given core of arctic air is delayed until Thu night
lows Wed night will only dip into the upper teens to mid 20s.

&&

.LONG TERM /THURSDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
*/ Highlights...

 - Dangerously cold Thursday night into Friday morning
 - Damaging winds possible Thursday night
 - Wintry weather forecast Saturday into Saturday night
 - A milder trend going into next week

Overview and model preferences...
In spite of what is expected to be a highly amplified flow
pattern into the weekend, 12Z guidance is in remarkably good
agreement. Very deep arctic influenced vortex will be settling
across N New England through Friday with even ensemble
probabilities supporting nearly 100 percent of members with H5
heights below 500dm, which is nearly 3 std deviations below
climatological normals for December. As previous forecaster noted
this is under deeply negative EPO conditions allowing for some
cross polar flow, advecting an airmass into New England where H85
temps drop as low as -20 to -25C. After, into the weekend the
pattern shifts more zonally, but mainly SW-NE thanks to digging
trof in the lee of the Rockies. This better moisture/warm
advection will yield a potentially active weekend from a
precipitation standpoint. The good news, is that even though this
may be relatively long lived, the shifting of the EPO and PNA
should promote drier wx to follow for early next week thanks to a
nearly 1040 hpa high pres. This update will mainly feature a blend
of guidance given the relatively good agreement.

Details...

Thu...
W-SW flow increases thanks to decent pres gradient ahead of an
arctic cold front which will be moving through the region during
the early morning hours. SST-H85 delta-T values are on the order
of 20C, which could be enough to promote some S coastal ocean
effect snow showers until winds shift behind the front. Not a
common occurrence. Other than this the fropa is dry but will
introduce very cold arctic airmass as H85 temps drop to nearly
-20C by 00Z Fri (Thu evening). This suggests highs will occur
early with cooling through the afternoon. Mixing in the morning
suggests these will top out in the low-mid 20s.

Thu night and Fri...
Dangerously cold conditions Thu night into Fri morning as ambient
temperatures will drop below 0F for much of the NW while other
ares should see the single digits thanks to H85 temps near -25C
and H92 temps between -20C and -23C. While this alone is nearly 3
std deviations below normal and deeply cold for December,, very
deep mixing with low tropopause combined with strong pres rises
nearly 7mb/3hr will support very strong winds particularly during
the overnight hours (more on this risk below). The combination
should allow for wind chills falling to between -15F and -25F
based on expected sustained winds, which will linger into Fri
morning. Looking at gust potential, instantaneous wind chills could
be as much as 10F to 20F colder still. Not enough warming Fri to
keep highs in the low-mid teens with continued bitter wind chills
near or below 0F through the afternoon.

Regarding the dynamic-tropopause nearing 650mb (so close you
could almost touch it), with BL mixing Thu night reaching nearly
H7 and strong pres rises, will also note the risk for very strong
to potentially damaging wind gusts for a period late Thu night
into Fri morning. Bufkit profiles suggest mixing could tap 50-60
kt LLJ at H7 which should efficiently mix to the sfc. Sustained
winds of 30-40 mph with gusts as high as 60+ at times are entirely
possible (just exacerbating and already dangerously cold period).
Wind advisories are likely going to be needed with a moderate risk
for High Wind Warnings. These winds will subside some through the
day Fri, but remain strong enough that loose items could be at
risk for blowing around.

As if this weren't enough the strong mixing and modest moisture
near the top of BL through this strong cold advection periods
suggests a risk for snow showers and squalls linked to the
moisture from Great Lakes streamers. Tail and of the BTV WRF –
squall parameter shows a corridor of high values into S New
England. This could promote blustery winds with any squalls and
possible rapid visibility reductions and quick snow accums Thu and
through much of Fri until the upper lvl pattern shift begins by
late Fri the risk will be highest on Thu though as this is when
winds have the strongest W component, but felt it was worth
mentioning here as the risk lingers Thu and and Fri somewhat as
well.

Fri night into Sat...
Rapid shift in pattern suggests inside runner with strong links
to higher moisture (PWATS increase through the period to nearly
1.00 inches by Sat evening). Therefore, noting good overrunning
signal late Fri night into Sat morning ahead of the inside running
low pres which will pass W of the region Sat evening. Very cold
leading airmass (H92 temps remain below -10C with H85 temps below
-12C by 12Z Sat morning), will lead to a lowered (vertically) snow
growth regime, allowing for decent omega within. This, combined
with the cold temps should lead to very high SLRs. All this is a
long winded way of stating that from late Sat night into early
afternoon, an area of overrunning moderate to heavy snowfall is
likely before the warming is able to force a change to rain (more
on this later), colloquially known as a “front-end-thump.”
Already noting ensemble probabilities between 50-70 percent for
3-6 inches across the interior, but this will still need to be
refined as we approach. Amounts are likely to be lower as one
moves SE through New England due to initial dry air to overcome,
and faster warming by Sat afternoon. Strong S LLJ, will advect
much warmer air with temps at H92 already reaching 0F along the MA
Pike. This could lead to a change to a period of freezing rain and
sleet for some before all rain moves in. Change to rain is
expected everywhere through the afternoon and evening with as much
as another 0.5 inches of rainfall with the first wave shifting E
Sat night.

Sun and Sun night...
Round 2 with secondary wave and attendant trailing cold front
which becomes parallel to mid lvl steering flow. Slow movement
expected along with continued moisture flux and good low-mid lvl
F-gen supports another 0.75-1.00 inches of qpf (rain given thermal
profiles) through Sunday night. H92 temps warm as high as +10C
early Sun but slowly decline through the day, still this could
feature highs reaching into the upper 40s and 50s before the
cooling really takes hold.

Mon and Tue...
Guidance supportive of improvement as deep wave lifts NE and
allows secondary ridging. Early indications suggest high pres as
strong as 1040mb could settle across the region with a return to
seasonably cool temps and drier wx. Timing of the 2 wave-system
for the weekend however will be critical to this final outcome.

&&

.AVIATION /21Z TUESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
Forecaster Confidence Levels...

Low - less than 30 percent.
Moderate - 30 to 60 percent.
High - greater than 60 percent.

Short Term /through Wednesday night/...High confidence.

Tonight...

Mainly VFR in snow flurries after 00z west and after midnight
eastern MA and RI. MVFR possible across the higher terrain and also
along the south coast including Cape Cod and the islands toward
morning. Any snow accumulations will be confined to western MA and
only a coating to an inch. Little if any elsewhere.

Wednesday...

VFR...except leftover MVFR around 12z across Cape and islands. West
winds 10 to 20 knots.

Wed night...

VFR with snow showers likely toward Thu morning. West winds gusts up
to 35 kt toward Thu morning.

KBOS TAF...High confidence in TAF.

KBDL TAF...High confidence in TAF.

Outlook /Thursday through Sunday/...

Thu and Fri...High confidence.
Mainly VFR, although some ocean effect and interior snow showers
are possible at times especially Thu with localized brief IFR
conditions and gustier W Winds.

Primary issues will be very strong winds especially Thu night into
Fri, sustained winds 30-40 kt gusting to nearly 60 kt at times are
possible. These winds do diminish during the day on Fri.

Sat and Sun...Moderate confidence.
Periods of IFR/MVFR possible late Fri night and continuing through
much of the weekend as low pres passes NW then drags a cold front
across the area. Some accumulating snow on runways likely early
Sat, followed my by mainly rain late Saturday into Sunday.

&&

.MARINE...
Forecaster Confidence Levels.

Low - less than 30 percent.
Moderate - 30 to 60 percent.
High - greater than 60 percent.

Short Term /through Wednesday/...High confidence.

415 PM update...

Tonight...

light ssw winds becoming west toward morning. Light rain/snow
showers possible.

Wed...

west winds 10-20 kt. Any morning rain/snow showers exit early and
give way to good vsby by midday.

Wed night...

Arctic front approaches with WSW winds increasing to 35 kt toward
daybreak. Snow showers possible toward morning.

Outlook /Thursday through Sunday/...

Thursday and Friday...High confidence.

Gales out of the W, shift to the NW during the day on Thu. By Thu
night, some storm force winds are possible. The winds diminish
during the day on Fri, but at least small craft thresholds can be
expected. Seas reach 8-10 ft on the ocean waters. Low risk for
some freezing spray especially Thu night into early Fri, when the
coldest air is expected.

Saturday into Sunday...Moderate confidence.

S winds will diminish briefly late Fri night into Sat, although
expect vsbys to drop in areas of rain and fog. As winds shift to
the SW late Sat into Sun, gusts to 25-30 kt are possible along
with building seas reaching 6-8 ft once again by Sun evening.
Small craft advisories are likely going to be needed for late Sat
into Sun.

&&

.TIDES/COASTAL FLOODING...
Astronomical high tide at Boston today was 12.1 ft and result in
minor/nuisance flooding. Tomorrow morning high tide is 12.3 ft. So
expecting a repeat performance of very minor/nuisance flooding in
the most vulnerable locations along the immediate eastern MA
shoreline.

&&

.BOX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
CT...None.
MA...None.
RI...None.
MARINE...Gale Watch from late Wednesday night through Thursday evening
     for ANZ230>237-250-251-254>256.

&&

SYNOPSIS...Nocera/Doody
NEAR TERM...Nocera
SHORT TERM...Nocera
LONG TERM...Doody
AVIATION...Nocera/Doody
MARINE...Nocera/Doody
TIDES/COASTAL FLOODING...Nocera

HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TAUNTON MA
352 PM EST TUE DEC 13 2016

CTZ002>004-MAZ002>024-026-RIZ001>008-142100-
HARTFORD CT-TOLLAND CT-WINDHAM CT-WESTERN FRANKLIN MA-
EASTERN FRANKLIN MA-NORTHERN WORCESTER MA-CENTRAL MIDDLESEX MA-
WESTERN ESSEX MA-EASTERN ESSEX MA-WESTERN HAMPSHIRE MA-
WESTERN HAMPDEN MA-EASTERN HAMPSHIRE MA-EASTERN HAMPDEN MA-
SOUTHERN WORCESTER MA-WESTERN NORFOLK MA-SOUTHEAST MIDDLESEX MA-
SUFFOLK MA-EASTERN NORFOLK MA-NORTHERN BRISTOL MA-
WESTERN PLYMOUTH MA-EASTERN PLYMOUTH MA-SOUTHERN BRISTOL MA-
SOUTHERN PLYMOUTH MA-BARNSTABLE MA-DUKES MA-NANTUCKET MA-
NORTHERN MIDDLESEX MA-NORTHWEST PROVIDENCE RI-
SOUTHEAST PROVIDENCE RI-WESTERN KENT RI-EASTERN KENT RI-BRISTOL RI-
WASHINGTON RI-NEWPORT RI-BLOCK ISLAND RI-
352 PM EST TUE DEC 13 2016

THIS HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK IS FOR NORTHERN CONNECTICUT...ALL OF
MASSACHUSETTS EXCEPT BERKSHIRE COUNTY...AND RHODE ISLAND.

.DAY ONE...THIS AFTERNOON AND TONIGHT.

HAZARDOUS WEATHER IS NOT EXPECTED AT THIS TIME.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...WEDNESDAY THROUGH MONDAY.

THURSDAY NIGHT INTO FRIDAY MORNING...DANGEROUSLY COLD WIND CHILLS
OF 10 TO 25 BELOW ZERO ARE FORECAST AS LOWS DROP INTO THE SINGLE
DIGITS AND NORTHWEST WINDS GUST 35 TO 45 MPH WITH A LOW RISK OF
50 TO 60 MPH GUSTS. A COMBINATION OF WIND AND WIND CHILL HEADLINES
IS LIKELY.

SATURDAY...ACCUMULATING SNOW IS FORECAST POTENTIALLY REACHING
ADVISORY LEVEL IN NORTH AND WEST PORTIONS OF MA AND CT. PRIOR TO
TRANSITIONING TO RAIN LATE SATURDAY INTO SATURDAY NIGHT THERE IS
THE POSSIBILITY FOR A BRIEF PERIOD OF SLEET AND/OR FREEZING RAIN.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

SPOTTER ACTIVATION IS NOT EXPECTED AT THIS TIME.

ANZ230>237-250-251-254>256-142100-
BOSTON HARBOR-CAPE COD BAY-NANTUCKET SOUND-VINEYARD SOUND-
BUZZARDS BAY-RHODE ISLAND SOUND-NARRAGANSETT BAY-BLOCK ISLAND SOUND-
COASTAL WATERS EAST OF IPSWICH BAY AND THE STELLWAGEN BANK NATIONAL
MARINE SANCTUARY-MASSACHUSETTS BAY AND IPSWICH BAY-
COASTAL WATERS FROM PROVINCETOWN MA TO CHATHAM MA TO NANTUCKET MA
OUT 20 NM-
COASTAL WATERS EXTENDING OUT TO 25 NM SOUTH OF MARTHAS VINEYARD AND
NANTUCKET-
COASTAL WATERS FROM MONTAUK NY TO MARTHAS VINEYARD EXTENDING OUT TO
20 NM SOUTH OF BLOCK ISLAND-
352 PM EST TUE DEC 13 2016

...GALE WATCH IN EFFECT FROM LATE WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY
EVENING...

THIS HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK IS FOR MASSACHUSETTS AND RHODE
ISLAND COASTAL WATERS.

.DAY ONE...THIS AFTERNOON AND TONIGHT.

HAZARDOUS WEATHER IS NOT EXPECTED AT THIS TIME.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...WEDNESDAY THROUGH MONDAY.

PLEASE LISTEN TO NOAA WEATHER RADIO OR GO TO WEATHER.GOV ON THE
INTERNET FOR MORE INFORMATION ABOUT THE FOLLOWING HAZARDS.

   GALE WATCH.

LATE THURSDAY INTO FRIDAY...THERE IS A HIGH PROBABILITY OF NW
GALES. LOW PROBABILITY OF STORM FORCE WIND GUSTS. LOW PROBABILITY
OF MODERATE FREEZING SPRAY OVER THE WATERS ADJACENT TO SHORES.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

SPOTTER ACTIVATION IS NOT EXPECTED AT THIS TIME.

FOR THE LATEST UPDATES...PLEASE VISIT OUR WEBPAGE AT
WWW.WEATHER.GOV/BOSTON

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