Gale Watch 26, NWS Boston/Norton, MA

422 
WHUS71 KBOX 040316
MWWBOX

URGENT - MARINE WEATHER MESSAGE
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TAUNTON MA
1116 PM EDT SAT SEP 3 2016

ANZ254>256-041130-
/O.CON.KBOX.TR.W.1009.000000T0000Z-000000T0000Z/
COASTAL WATERS FROM PROVINCETOWN MA TO CHATHAM MA TO NANTUCKET MA
OUT 20 NM-
COASTAL WATERS EXTENDING OUT TO 25 NM SOUTH OF MARTHAS VINEYARD
AND NANTUCKET-
COASTAL WATERS FROM MONTAUK NY TO MARTHAS VINEYARD EXTENDING OUT
TO 20 NM SOUTH OF BLOCK ISLAND-
1116 PM EDT SAT SEP 3 2016

...TROPICAL STORM WARNING REMAINS IN EFFECT...

A TROPICAL STORM WARNING REMAINS IN EFFECT FOR THE OUTER WATERS
FROM PROVINCETOWN TO MONTAUK NY.

TROPICAL STORM FORCE WINDS ASSOCIATED WITH HERMINE WILL DEVELOP
SUNDAY AFTERNOON AND PERSIST AT LEAST THROUGH MONDAY MORNING
BEFORE DIMINISHING.

THE STRONGEST WINDS WILL BE SUNDAY NIGHT WITH WIND GUSTS TO 50 KT
POSSIBLE. 

SEAS WILL RAPIDLY BUILD DURING SUNDAY AND MAY REACH AT LEAST 20
FEET BY SUNDAY EVENING.. SOUTH OF THE ISLANDS.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

A TROPICAL STORM WARNING MEANS SUSTAINED WINDS OF 34 TO 63 KT ARE
EXPECTED DUE TO A TROPICAL STORM WITHIN 36 HOURS.

$$

ANZ251-041130-
/O.CON.KBOX.SC.Y.0104.160904T1800Z-160906T0000Z/
MASSACHUSETTS BAY AND IPSWICH BAY-
1116 PM EDT SAT SEP 3 2016

...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY REMAINS IN EFFECT FROM 2 PM SUNDAY TO
8 PM EDT MONDAY...

* WINDS AND SEAS...NORTHEAST WINDS 15 TO 25 KT WITH GUSTS UP TO 
  30 KT. SEAS 6 TO 9 FEET.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

A SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY MEANS THAT WIND SPEEDS OF 25 TO 33 KNOTS
ARE EXPECTED TO PRODUCE HAZARDOUS WAVE CONDITIONS TO SMALL CRAFT.
INEXPERIENCED MARINERS...ESPECIALLY THOSE OPERATING SMALLER
VESSELS SHOULD AVOID NAVIGATING IN THESE CONDITIONS.

&&

$$

ANZ230-041130-
/O.CON.KBOX.SC.Y.0104.160904T1800Z-160906T0000Z/
BOSTON HARBOR-
1116 PM EDT SAT SEP 3 2016

...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY REMAINS IN EFFECT FROM 2 PM SUNDAY TO
8 PM EDT MONDAY...

* WINDS AND SEAS...NORTHEAST WINDS 15 TO 20 KT WITH GUSTS UP TO 
  30 KT. SEAS 2 TO 4 FEET.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

A SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY MEANS THAT WIND SPEEDS OF 25 TO 33 KNOTS
ARE EXPECTED TO PRODUCE HAZARDOUS WAVE CONDITIONS TO SMALL CRAFT.
INEXPERIENCED MARINERS...ESPECIALLY THOSE OPERATING SMALLER
VESSELS SHOULD AVOID NAVIGATING IN THESE CONDITIONS.

&&

$$

ANZ232>237-041130-
/O.CON.KBOX.TR.A.1009.000000T0000Z-000000T0000Z/
NANTUCKET SOUND-VINEYARD SOUND-BUZZARDS BAY-RHODE ISLAND SOUND-
NARRAGANSETT BAY-BLOCK ISLAND SOUND-
1116 PM EDT SAT SEP 3 2016

...TROPICAL STORM WATCH REMAINS IN EFFECT...

TROPICAL STORM FORCE WINDS ASSOCIATED WITH HERMINE WILL LIKELY
DEVELOP LATE SUNDAY INTO SUNDAY EVENING AND PERSIST INTO MONDAY
MORNING.

THE STRONGEST WINDS WILL OCCUR SUNDAY NIGHT WITH GUSTS 40 TO 45
KNOTS...ESPECIALLY OVER THE OPEN WATERS. 

SEAS WILL RAPIDLY BUILD DURING SUNDAY AND MAY REACH 10 TO 15 FT
OVER RHODE ISLAND AND BLOCK ISLAND SOUND SUNDAY NIGHT.

$$

ANZ250-041130-
/O.CON.KBOX.GL.A.0026.160905T0300Z-160906T0000Z/
COASTAL WATERS EAST OF IPSWICH BAY AND THE STELLWAGEN BANK
NATIONAL MARINE SANCTUARY-
1116 PM EDT SAT SEP 3 2016

...GALE WATCH REMAINS IN EFFECT FROM SUNDAY EVENING THROUGH
MONDAY EVENING...

* WINDS AND SEAS...EAST WINDS 20 TO 25 KT WITH GUSTS UP TO 35 
  KT. SEAS 7 TO 12 FEET.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

A GALE WATCH IS ISSUED WHEN THE RISK OF GALE FORCE WINDS OF 34 TO
47 KNOTS HAS SIGNIFICANTLY INCREASED...BUT THE SPECIFIC TIMING
AND/OR LOCATION IS STILL UNCERTAIN. IT IS INTENDED TO PROVIDE
ADDITIONAL LEAD TIME FOR MARINERS WHO MAY WISH TO CONSIDER
ALTERING THEIR PLANS.

&&

$$

ANZ231-041130-
/O.CON.KBOX.GL.A.0026.160905T0300Z-160906T0000Z/
CAPE COD BAY-
1116 PM EDT SAT SEP 3 2016

...GALE WATCH REMAINS IN EFFECT FROM SUNDAY EVENING THROUGH
MONDAY EVENING...

* WINDS AND SEAS...EAST WINDS 15 TO 25 KT WITH GUSTS UP TO 35 
  KT. SEAS 3 TO 5 FEET.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

A GALE WATCH IS ISSUED WHEN THE RISK OF GALE FORCE WINDS OF 34 TO
47 KNOTS HAS SIGNIFICANTLY INCREASED...BUT THE SPECIFIC TIMING
AND/OR LOCATION IS STILL UNCERTAIN. IT IS INTENDED TO PROVIDE
ADDITIONAL LEAD TIME FOR MARINERS WHO MAY WISH TO CONSIDER
ALTERING THEIR PLANS.

&&

$$

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@NWSBOSTON

636 
WHUS71 KBOX 040859
MWWBOX

URGENT - MARINE WEATHER MESSAGE
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TAUNTON MA
459 AM EDT SUN SEP 4 2016

ANZ231-250-041700-
/O.UPG.KBOX.GL.A.0026.160905T0300Z-160906T0000Z/
/O.NEW.KBOX.GL.W.0037.160905T0300Z-160906T0000Z/
CAPE COD BAY-
COASTAL WATERS EAST OF IPSWICH BAY AND THE STELLWAGEN BANK
NATIONAL MARINE SANCTUARY-
459 AM EDT SUN SEP 4 2016

...GALE WARNING IN EFFECT FROM 11 PM THIS EVENING TO 8 PM EDT
MONDAY...

THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE IN TAUNTON HAS ISSUED A GALE
WARNING...WHICH IS IN EFFECT FROM 11 PM THIS EVENING TO 8 PM EDT
MONDAY. THE GALE WATCH IS NO LONGER IN EFFECT.

* WINDS AND SEAS...NORTHEAST WINDS 20 TO 30 KT WITH GUSTS UP TO 
  35 KT. SEAS 7 TO 12 FEET.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

A GALE WARNING MEANS WINDS OF 34 TO 47 KNOTS ARE IMMINENT OR
OCCURING. OPERATING A VESSEL IN GALE CONDITIONS REQUIRES
EXPERIENCE AND PROPERLY EQUIPPED VESSELS. IT IS HIGHLY
RECOMMENDED THAT MARINERS WITHOUT THE PROPER EXPERIENCE SEEK SAFE
HARBOR PRIOR TO THE ONSET OF GALE CONDITIONS.

&&

$$

ANZ254>256-041700-
/O.CON.KBOX.TR.W.1009.000000T0000Z-000000T0000Z/
COASTAL WATERS FROM PROVINCETOWN MA TO CHATHAM MA TO NANTUCKET MA
OUT 20 NM-
COASTAL WATERS EXTENDING OUT TO 25 NM SOUTH OF MARTHAS VINEYARD
AND NANTUCKET-
COASTAL WATERS FROM MONTAUK NY TO MARTHAS VINEYARD EXTENDING OUT
TO 20 NM SOUTH OF BLOCK ISLAND-
459 AM EDT SUN SEP 4 2016

...TROPICAL STORM WARNING REMAINS IN EFFECT...

A TROPICAL STORM WARNING REMAINS IN EFFECT FOR THE OUTER WATERS
FROM PROVINCETOWN TO MONTAUK NY.

TROPICAL STORM FORCE WINDS ASSOCIATED WITH HERMINE WILL DEVELOP
THIS AFTERNOON AND EVENING. THE WINDS WILL THEN PERSIST AT LEAST
THROUGH MONDAY MORNING BEFORE DIMINISHING.

THE STRONGEST WINDS WILL BE TONIGHT WITH WIND GUSTS TO 50 KT
POSSIBLE.

SEAS WILL RAPIDLY BUILD TODAY AND MAY REACH AT LEAST 20 FEET SOUTH
OF THE ISLANDS BY TONIGHT. 

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

A TROPICAL STORM WARNING MEANS SUSTAINED WINDS OF 34 TO 63 KT ARE
EXPECTED DUE TO A TROPICAL STORM WITHIN 36 HOURS.

$$

ANZ251-041700-
/O.CON.KBOX.SC.Y.0104.160904T1800Z-160906T0000Z/
MASSACHUSETTS BAY AND IPSWICH BAY-
459 AM EDT SUN SEP 4 2016

...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY REMAINS IN EFFECT FROM 2 PM THIS
AFTERNOON TO 8 PM EDT MONDAY...

* WINDS AND SEAS...NORTHEAST WINDS 15 TO 25 KT WITH GUSTS UP TO 
  30 KT. SEAS 6 TO 9 FEET.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

A SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY MEANS THAT WIND SPEEDS OF 25 TO 33 KNOTS
ARE EXPECTED TO PRODUCE HAZARDOUS WAVE CONDITIONS TO SMALL CRAFT.
INEXPERIENCED MARINERS...ESPECIALLY THOSE OPERATING SMALLER
VESSELS SHOULD AVOID NAVIGATING IN THESE CONDITIONS.

&&

$$

ANZ230-041700-
/O.CON.KBOX.SC.Y.0104.160904T1800Z-160906T0000Z/
BOSTON HARBOR-
459 AM EDT SUN SEP 4 2016

...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY REMAINS IN EFFECT FROM 2 PM THIS
AFTERNOON TO 8 PM EDT MONDAY...

* WINDS AND SEAS...NORTHEAST WINDS 10 TO 20 KT WITH GUSTS UP TO 
  30 KT. SEAS 2 TO 4 FEET.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

A SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY MEANS THAT WIND SPEEDS OF 25 TO 33 KNOTS
ARE EXPECTED TO PRODUCE HAZARDOUS WAVE CONDITIONS TO SMALL CRAFT.
INEXPERIENCED MARINERS...ESPECIALLY THOSE OPERATING SMALLER
VESSELS SHOULD AVOID NAVIGATING IN THESE CONDITIONS.

&&

$$

ANZ232>237-041700-
/O.CON.KBOX.TR.A.1009.000000T0000Z-000000T0000Z/
NANTUCKET SOUND-VINEYARD SOUND-BUZZARDS BAY-RHODE ISLAND SOUND-
NARRAGANSETT BAY-BLOCK ISLAND SOUND-
459 AM EDT SUN SEP 4 2016

...TROPICAL STORM WATCH REMAINS IN EFFECT...

TROPICAL STORM FORCE WINDS ASSOCIATED WITH HERMINE WILL LIKELY
DEVELOP THIS EVENING AND TONIGHT AND PERSIST INTO MONDAY MORNING.

THE STRONGEST WINDS WILL OCCUR TONIGHT WITH GUSTS 40 TO 45
KNOTS...ESPECIALLY OVER THE OPEN WATERS.

SEAS WILL RAPIDLY BUILD TODAY AND MAY REACH 10 TO 15 FT OVER
RHODE ISLAND AND BLOCK ISLAND SOUNDS TONIGHT.

$$

ANZ250-041700-
/O.CON.KBOX.GL.A.0026.160905T0300Z-160906T0000Z/
COASTAL WATERS EAST OF IPSWICH BAY AND THE STELLWAGEN BANK
NATIONAL MARINE SANCTUARY-
459 AM EDT SUN SEP 4 2016

...GALE WATCH REMAINS IN EFFECT FROM THIS EVENING THROUGH MONDAY
EVENING...

* WINDS AND SEAS...EAST WINDS 20 TO 25 KT WITH GUSTS UP TO 35 
  KT. SEAS 7 TO 12 FEET.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

A GALE WATCH IS ISSUED WHEN THE RISK OF GALE FORCE WINDS OF 34 TO
47 KNOTS HAS SIGNIFICANTLY INCREASED...BUT THE SPECIFIC TIMING
AND/OR LOCATION IS STILL UNCERTAIN. IT IS INTENDED TO PROVIDE
ADDITIONAL LEAD TIME FOR MARINERS WHO MAY WISH TO CONSIDER
ALTERING THEIR PLANS.

$$

FOR THE LATEST UPDATES...PLEASE VISIT OUR WEBPAGE AT
WWW.WEATHER.GOV/BOSTON

YOU CAN FOLLOW US ON FACEBOOK AT
WWW.FACEBOOK.COM/NWSBOSTON

YOU CAN FOLLOW US ON TWITTER AT
@NWSBOSTON

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Taunton MA
400 PM EDT SAT SEP 3 2016

.SYNOPSIS...
Tropical Storm Hermine off the North Carolina coast late Saturday
will begin affecting portions of southern New England Sunday
especially the south coast with increasing winds followed by rain
Sunday night through at least Monday. Periods of rain and wind may
linger into Tue or Wed...depending on exact timing...track and
intensity of the tropical storm. Very warm and humid conditions
follow Hermine for late next week.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM SUNDAY MORNING/...
High pressure remains over the region today and and begins to exit
towards the Maritimes tonight. This high is the stalling factor
for Hermine.

For today, anticipate dry weather and comfortable conditions as
temps remain in the low to mid 70s with dewpoints into the low
50s. A bit cooler on the coast thanks to onshore flow. Filter
clouds and sun through the rest of the afternoon as the cloud
shield from Hermine continue to expand into the region.

Cloud shield will continue to expand a bit farther north tonight
as high pressure system begins to shift eastward into the
Maritimes. Dry weather will still prevail tonight. Biggest
question radiational cooling for tonight. MAV/MET and MEX
guidance all indicate that overnight lows will drop into the low
50s. If the cloud shield is not too thick, then can see this
happening. However high level clouds from Hermine could also limit
radiational cooling and thus keep overnight lows a bit warmer then
guidance indicates. Will use a blend of available guidance and
drop temps into the mid to low 50s. Last concern for tonight is
the potential for valley fog. Overnight temps will fall, and with
dewpoints rising a few degrees from Hermine, we could reach a lot
temp/dewpoint spread and thus fog could develop. Highest
confidence is across low lying regions who are not under the thick
cloud shield. Any fog that develops should dissipate by morning as
the temperature and wind begin to increase.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 AM SUNDAY MORNING THROUGH MONDAY/...

Sunday into Monday...

Hermine...

* Dangerous rip currents, rough surf and building seas will begin
  Sunday afternoon into Monday

* Tropical storm force winds will occur Sunday late afternoon into
  early Monday morning, especially across the Islands

* Minor beach erosion possible with the Sunday night high tide along
  the RI coast and Nantucket. Pockets of moderate beach erosion are
  possible from Westerly to Point Judith, RI.  Any coastal flooding
  is expected to be minor and spotty.

Details...

Hermine is still on track to stall just off the Mid-Atlantic coast
and pinwheel in that vicinity through the period. There is still
some spread in the guidance on the exact location of the radii of
the storm so we will continue to follow NHC's forecast.

Wind...Building high pressure to the north of the system will
actually create a good pressure gradient resulting in a potent LLJ.
Good lapse rates across the region could mix these higher wind gusts
to the surface. Down trees are possible as the trees are quite
stress from the ongoing drought, so even a good gust of wind below
criteria could knock them down. Highest confidence is across the
immediate South Coast, Cape and Islands. Pressure gradient weakens
by Monday afternoon as Hermine begins its westward jog towards the
Mid-Atlantic resulting in a decrease in wind gusts.

Rainfall...Sunday will remain dry for most of the day as mid-level
RH fields begin to moisten up. Outer bands of Hermine could begin to
move into the region late Sunday/Monday morning. Continued to
mention showery weather as this will not be a stratiform rain. EC
appears to be an outlier on QPF as ensemble probs continue to show
the potential for less than an inch of QPF. Still can't rule out the
chance for over an inch to two inches, but the highest confidence
for that to occur is across the southeast including the Cape
and Islands.

Coastal...Please see coastal flood section below.

Beachgoers...As Hermine begins to move northward on Sunday. Seas
will quickly build especially across the South Coast. This will
create not only rough surf but also dangerous rip currents. Because
the seas will remain high into Labor, this threat will also spread
into Monday. Beachgoers are encouraged to swim a beaches with
lifeguards.

While confidence is increasing in the impacts listed above, it is
still not a high confidence forecast.  A small shift to the north or
the south in the track could result in much greater impacts to
southern New England or very little, if any, impact.  Keep attuned
to forecasts throughout the Labor Day weekend to stay abreast of the
latest developments and be prepared.

&&

.LONG TERM /MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY/...

HIGHLIGHTS...

Hermine...

* Second round of wind possible Tue and Wed with a low risk of
  tropical storm force winds along the south coast including Cape
  Cod and Islands

* Very rough surf and a high risk of strong rip currents expected
  through much of next week with the highest threat across south
  ocean beaches

* Mid level dry air wrapping around Hermine will likely limit
  rainfall totals to less than 2 inches and provide some dry periods

Thursday thru Saturday...

* very warm and humid conditions follow Hermine/s departure

Synoptic Overview and Model Preferences ...

12z runs including the UKMET in good agreement on the overall theme
for Hermine becoming occluded /vertically stacked/ and beginning to
weaken Monday night off Delmarva/NJ coast as it drifts east-
northeast...closer to southern New England. However the 12z GFS
appears a strong outlier as it keeps a very strong system Tue and
Wed despite system occluding and not interacting with any new
northern stream short wave energy to invigorate Hermine. Thus a
weakening trend by the remainder of the 12z guid seems reasonable
from Mon night forward. In addition...the new 12z EC has jumped
eastward with Hermine and not retrograding the system nearly as far
to the west as previous runs for the Sun ngt/Mon period. Although
the new 12z EC does provide a weakening trend beginning Tue into Wed
and beyond.

Daily details ...

Mon night and Tue ... Another pulse of wind and rain is likely
although rain intensity will vary as mid level dry air /dry slot/
wraps cyclonically around Hermine and across southern New England.
Thus given duration of rain intensity will be limited not expecting
any issues regarding flood threat. Regarding winds...another surge
of gusty are possible to Tropical/Gale force strength (34 kt and
greater) along the south coast with lighter winds elsewhere.

Wednesday ... Hermine should begin to exit seaward as the center
moves southeast of Nantucket and across Georges Bank. System weakens
with its heights rising in response to the subtropical ridge
building in on the backside and the lack of any additional northern
stream jet energy to reinvigorate the system.

Thursday thru Saturday ... very warm and humid conditions replace
Hermine as subtropical ridge builds back along the eastern seaboard.
Risk of showers/T-storms Thu with potential prefrontal trough and
then main cold front Fri as parent low moves across Ontario and
Quebec. Trends for next weekend suggest not as warm or humid behind
fropa.

&&

.AVIATION /20Z SATURDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
Forecaster Confidence Levels.

Low - less than 30 percent.
Moderate - 30 to 60 percent.
High - greater than 60 percent.

Short Term /through Monday/...

Today and tonight...High confidence VFR. Light wind increases
from the east along the coasts with gusts to 15 knots South Coast
late. Increasing high clouds. Could see some patchy fog is low-
lying terminals. Easterly flow will begin to increase near
daybreak across the islands to 25 kts.

Sunday into Monday...High confidence in trends. Low confidence in
exact timing and areal extent. Deteriorating conditions are
expected beginning on the south coast, Cape, and Islands and
slowly moving northward though confidence is low on how far north
the lower conditions will get. Expect periods of IFR CIGS on the
south coast, Cape, and Islands, with a quick improvement to VFR as
one moves to the north. Highest confidence in VFR conditions will
be areas north of I-90, including Boston, Bedford, and Worcester.

Along the south coast, Cape, and Islands, there will be a period of
easterly to northeasterly tropical storm force winds.  That is
sustained winds greater than 34 kts with gusts possible up to 40 to
45 kts. At this point, timing for the highest winds is expected
to be sometime Sunday afternoon through Monday mid-day but this
may shift earlier or later with timing and track of Hermine. There
is a low probability of these stronger winds reaching farther
north up to PVD to PYM.

KBOS Terminal...High confidence in TAF.

KBDL Terminal...High confidence in TAF.

Outlook /Monday night through Thursday/...

Moderate forecast confidence this period given exact track...speed
and intensity of Hermine remain somewhat uncertain.

Mon night and Tuesday ... MVFR and IFR possible in periods of rain
and wind...strongest wind south coast.

Wed ... should see some improvement with MVFR the most likely
category.

Thursday ... MVFR and VFR likely. Low risk of shower/T-storm threat
with approaching prefrontal trough.

&&

.MARINE...
Forecaster Confidence Levels.

Low - less than 30 percent.
Moderate - 30 to 60 percent.
High - greater than 60 percent.

Short Term /through Monday/...

***Tropical Storm Watches and Warnings are in effect for the
southern waters***

***Increasing seas up to 15 to 20 feet and tropical storm force
winds with gusts near 50 kts are expected on the southern waters
with the approach of Hermine***

High confidence in trends...still some issue on exact timing.
Tropical hazards have been issued for the southern waters.
Anticipate winds and seas to quickly increase during the day on
Sunday and last into Sunday night. Seas and winds will subside a bit
late Monday. For the waters north of Cape Cod excluding ANZ254, we
could see a period of northeast gusts to gale force at a time late
Sunday into Monday morning. The farther north you go, the less the
winds and seas will be, but there is still the potential for
Hermine's track to move so stay up to date to the latest forecast.

Outlook /Monday Night through Thursday/...

*** Lots of uncertainty on exact track/intensity and decay of
Hermine ***

Mon night and Tuesday ... Hermine likely off the NJ coast at this
time. Intensity and forward motion still uncertain. However
strongest wind and seas likely remains south of New England.

Wed and Thu ... improvement with Hermine likely weakening and moving
out to sea.

&&

.TIDES/COASTAL FLOODING...
Astronomical tides are relatively low this weekend into next
week, and this will help to mitigate coastal inundation concerns.
Nonetheless, at least minor erosion will be likely over several
high tide cycles along the RI/MA south coast with possibly
moderate beach erosion along portions of the RI coast between
Westerly and Point Judith.

Along the RI south coast west of Point Judith, a peak storm surge
of 2-3 ft is possible Sunday night along with shoreline waves of 10
to 15 feet. The combination of surge and waves could be enough for
pockets of moderate beach erosion along this reach of coastline
including Charlestown and Misquamicut Beach. Due to the relatively
low astronomical tides, we think any coastal flooding is likely to
be minor and spotty. Storm surge and wave action relax a little on
Monday, but minor beach erosion may persist for several high tide
cycles during the first half of next week. The repetitive erosion,
albeit mostly minor, may have some accumulated effects.

Along the rest of the RI and MA south coast, a peak storm surge of
1.5 to 2 feet is possible. The combination of storm surge and
rough surf may result in minor beach erosion for the Sunday night
high tide and perhaps for several subsequent high tide cycles. The
risk of inundation beyond some splashover appears to be fairly
low.

Along the MA east coast, a persistent easterly flow may result in
a 1 to 1.5 foot storm surge and near shore waves possibly 6 to 10
feet across the nearshore waters, with highest surge and waves
along the outer Cape. Due to the relatively low astronomical high
tides, only pockets of minor erosion are anticipated.

&&

.BOX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
CT...None.
MA...Tropical Storm Watch for MAZ020>024.
RI...Tropical Storm Watch for RIZ002-004>008.
MARINE...Tropical Storm Watch for ANZ232>237.
     Small Craft Advisory from 2 PM Sunday to 8 PM EDT Monday for
     ANZ230-251.
     Gale Watch from Sunday evening through Monday evening for
     ANZ231-250.
     Tropical Storm Warning for ANZ254>256.
&&

SYNOPSIS...Nocera/Dunten
NEAR TERM...Dunten
SHORT TERM...Dunten
LONG TERM...Nocera
AVIATION...Nocera/Dunten
MARINE...Nocera/Dunten
TIDES/COASTAL FLOODING...staff

HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TAUNTON MA
456 AM EDT SAT SEP 3 2016

CTZ002>004-MAZ002>006-008>014-017-018-026-RIZ001>004-040900-
HARTFORD CT-TOLLAND CT-WINDHAM CT-WESTERN FRANKLIN MA-
EASTERN FRANKLIN MA-NORTHERN WORCESTER MA-CENTRAL MIDDLESEX MA-
WESTERN ESSEX MA-WESTERN HAMPSHIRE MA-WESTERN HAMPDEN MA-
EASTERN HAMPSHIRE MA-EASTERN HAMPDEN MA-SOUTHERN WORCESTER MA-
WESTERN NORFOLK MA-SOUTHEAST MIDDLESEX MA-NORTHERN BRISTOL MA-
WESTERN PLYMOUTH MA-NORTHERN MIDDLESEX MA-NORTHWEST PROVIDENCE RI-
SOUTHEAST PROVIDENCE RI-WESTERN KENT RI-EASTERN KENT RI-
456 AM EDT SAT SEP 3 2016

THIS HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK IS FOR NORTHERN CONNECTICUT...CENTRAL
MASSACHUSETTS...EASTERN MASSACHUSETTS...NORTHEASTERN MASSACHUSETTS...
SOUTHEASTERN MASSACHUSETTS...WESTERN MASSACHUSETTS AND NORTHERN
RHODE ISLAND.

.DAY ONE...TODAY AND TONIGHT.

HAZARDOUS WEATHER IS NOT EXPECTED AT THIS TIME.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...SUNDAY THROUGH FRIDAY.

TROPICAL STORM HERMINE MAY IMPACT SOUTHERN NEW ENGLAND SUNDAY
INTO TUESDAY WITH A RAIN AND WIND THREAT. HOWEVER...THERE IS
STILL UNCERTAINTY WITH THE TRACK AND INTENSITY OF HERMINE WHICH
WILL DETERMINE THE MAGNITUDE AND EXTENT OF IMPACT FOR SOUTHERN NEW
ENGLAND. CURRENT IMPACTS ARE EXPECTED TO BE MAINLY COASTAL...WITH
THE GREATEST RISK FOR BENEFICIAL RAIN AND STRONG...GUSTY WINDS
ALONG THE SOUTH COAST.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

SPOTTER ACTIVATION IS NOT EXPECTED AT THIS TIME.

MAZ007-015-016-019>024-RIZ005>008-040900-
EASTERN ESSEX MA-SUFFOLK MA-EASTERN NORFOLK MA-EASTERN PLYMOUTH MA-
SOUTHERN BRISTOL MA-SOUTHERN PLYMOUTH MA-BARNSTABLE MA-DUKES MA-
NANTUCKET MA-BRISTOL RI-WASHINGTON RI-NEWPORT RI-BLOCK ISLAND RI-
456 AM EDT SAT SEP 3 2016

THIS HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK IS FOR EASTERN MASSACHUSETTS...
NORTHEASTERN MASSACHUSETTS...SOUTHEASTERN MASSACHUSETTS...NORTHERN
RHODE ISLAND AND SOUTHERN RHODE ISLAND.

.DAY ONE...TODAY AND TONIGHT.

HAZARDOUS WEATHER IS NOT EXPECTED AT THIS TIME.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...SUNDAY THROUGH FRIDAY.

SWELLS FROM TROPICAL STORM HERMINE WILL PRODUCE ROUGH SURF WITH
AN INCREASED RISK OF STRONG RIP CURRENTS ALONG OCEAN BEACHES
BEGINNING ON SUNDAY AND CONTINUING INTO TUESDAY.

TROPICAL STORM HERMINE MAY IMPACT SOUTHERN NEW ENGLAND SUNDAY
INTO TUESDAY WITH A RAIN AND WIND THREAT. HOWEVER...THERE IS
STILL UNCERTAINTY WITH THE TRACK AND INTENSITY OF HERMINE WHICH
WILL DETERMINE THE MAGNITUDE AND EXTENT OF IMPACT FOR SOUTHERN NEW
ENGLAND. CURRENT IMPACTS ARE EXPECTED TO BE MAINLY COASTAL...WITH
THE GREATEST RISK FOR BENEFICIAL RAIN AND STRONG...GUSTY WINDS
ALONG THE SOUTH COAST.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

SPOTTER ACTIVATION IS NOT EXPECTED AT THIS TIME.

ANZ255-256-040900-
COASTAL WATERS EXTENDING OUT TO 25 NM SOUTH OF MARTHAS VINEYARD AND
NANTUCKET-
COASTAL WATERS FROM MONTAUK NY TO MARTHAS VINEYARD EXTENDING OUT TO
20 NM SOUTH OF BLOCK ISLAND-
456 AM EDT SAT SEP 3 2016

...TROPICAL STORM WATCH IN EFFECT...

THIS HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK IS FOR MASSACHUSETTS COASTAL WATERS
AND RHODE ISLAND COASTAL WATERS.

.DAY ONE...TODAY AND TONIGHT.

PLEASE LISTEN TO NOAA WEATHER RADIO OR GO TO WEATHER.GOV ON THE
INTERNET FOR MORE INFORMATION ABOUT THE FOLLOWING HAZARDS.

   TROPICAL STORM WATCH.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...SUNDAY THROUGH FRIDAY.

PLEASE LISTEN TO NOAA WEATHER RADIO OR GO TO WEATHER.GOV ON THE
INTERNET FOR MORE INFORMATION ABOUT THE FOLLOWING HAZARDS.

   TROPICAL STORM WATCH.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

SPOTTER ACTIVATION IS NOT EXPECTED AT THIS TIME.

ANZ230>237-250-251-254-040900-
BOSTON HARBOR-CAPE COD BAY-NANTUCKET SOUND-VINEYARD SOUND-
BUZZARDS BAY-RHODE ISLAND SOUND-NARRAGANSETT BAY-BLOCK ISLAND SOUND-
COASTAL WATERS EAST OF IPSWICH BAY AND THE STELLWAGEN BANK NATIONAL
MARINE SANCTUARY-MASSACHUSETTS BAY AND IPSWICH BAY-
COASTAL WATERS FROM PROVINCETOWN MA TO CHATHAM MA TO NANTUCKET MA
OUT 20 NM-
456 AM EDT SAT SEP 3 2016

THIS HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK IS FOR MASSACHUSETTS COASTAL WATERS
AND RHODE ISLAND COASTAL WATERS.

.DAY ONE...TODAY AND TONIGHT.

HAZARDOUS WEATHER IS NOT EXPECTED AT THIS TIME.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...SUNDAY THROUGH FRIDAY.

TROPICAL STORM HERMINE MAY IMPACT THE SOUTHERN NEW ENGLAND
COASTAL WATERS SUNDAY INTO TUESDAY. HOWEVER...THERE IS SOME
UNCERTAINTY WITH THE TRACK AND INTENSITY OF HERMINE WHICH WILL
DETERMINE THE MAGNITUDE AND EXTENT OF IMPACT. INCREASING SEAS ON
THE SOUTHERN WATERS AND TROPICAL STORM FORCE WINDS ARE EXPECTED
AT THIS TIME. LOW PROBABILITY OF 20 TO 22 FOOT SEAS AND STORM
FORCE GUSTS ON THE SOUTHERN WATERS.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

SPOTTER ACTIVATION IS NOT EXPECTED AT THIS TIME.

RLG

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