Coastal Flood Statement 10, NWS Boston/Norton, MA

999 
WHUS41 KBOX 181540
CFWBOX

COASTAL HAZARD MESSAGE
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TAUNTON MA
1140 AM EDT TUE OCT 18 2016

MAZ024-181900-
/O.CAN.KBOX.CF.S.0010.000000T0000Z-161018T1900Z/
/O.EXA.KBOX.CF.Y.0012.161018T1600Z-161018T1900Z/
NANTUCKET MA-
1140 AM EDT TUE OCT 18 2016

...COASTAL FLOOD ADVISORY IN EFFECT UNTIL 3 PM EDT THIS AFTERNOON...

...MINOR COASTAL FLOODING ALONG MOST VULNERABLE SHORE ROADS ABOUT
NANTUCKET HARBOR THIS AFTERNOON...

* LOCATION...NANTUCKET HARBOR AREA

* COASTAL FLOODING...VERY HIGH ASTRONOMICAL TIDES COMBINED WITH A
  TIDAL DEPARTURE OF .5 TO 1 FOOT WILL RESULT IN MINOR FLOODING ALONG
  THE MOST VULNERABLE SHORE ROADS ABOUT NANTUCKET HARBOR.

* TIMING...NOON TO 3 PM

* IMPACTS...MINOR FLOODING ALONG THE MOST VULNERABLE SHORE ROADS

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

A COASTAL FLOOD ADVISORY IS ISSUED FOR MINOR COASTAL FLOODING OF THE MOST
VULNERABLE SHORE ROADS AND/OR BASEMENTS DUE TO THE HEIGHT OF STORM TIDE OR WAVE
SPLASHOVER. THE MAJORITY OF ROADS REMAIN PASSABLE WITH ONLY ISOLATED CLOSURES.
THERE IS NO SIGNIFICANT THREAT TO LIFE...AND IMPACT ON PROPERTY
IS MINIMAL.

&&

&&

ALL TIDE HEIGHTS ARE RELATIVE TO MEAN LOWER LOW WATER.
TIME OF HIGH TOTAL TIDES ARE APPROXIMATE TO THE NEAREST HOUR.

NANTUCKET HARBOR

     TOTAL
      TIDE      DAY/TIME     SURGE     WAVES      FLOOD
      /FT/                    /FT/      /FT/    CATEGORY
  -----------  ----------  ---------  -------  ----------
    4.7- 5.2    18/02 PM    0.5/ 1.0    1-2      MINOR
    3.2- 3.7    19/03 AM   -0.2/ 0.3    2-3       NONE
    4.0- 4.5    19/03 PM   -0.2/ 0.2    1-2       NONE
    3.1- 3.6    20/04 AM   -0.2/ 0.2     1        NONE
    4.0- 4.5    20/04 PM    0.0/ 0.5    1-2       NONE
    3.4- 3.9    21/05 AM    0.2/ 0.7     2        NONE

NANTUCKET EAST COAST - EROSION IMPACTS

     TOTAL
      TIDE      DAY/TIME     SURGE     WAVES      FLOOD
      /FT/                    /FT/      /FT/    CATEGORY
  -----------  ----------  ---------  -------  ----------
    4.9- 5.4    18/02 PM    0.5/ 1.0     3        NONE
    3.5- 4.0    19/03 AM   -0.2/ 0.3     4        NONE
    4.2- 4.7    19/03 PM   -0.2/ 0.2     3        NONE
    3.2- 3.7    20/04 AM   -0.2/ 0.2     2        NONE
    4.4- 4.9    20/04 PM    0.1/ 0.6    2-3       NONE
    3.7- 4.2    21/05 AM    0.2/ 0.8     3        NONE

NANTUCKET - MADAKET AREA EROSION IMPACTS

     TOTAL
      TIDE      DAY/TIME     SURGE     WAVES      FLOOD
      /FT/                    /FT/      /FT/    CATEGORY
  -----------  ----------  ---------  -------  ----------
    3.2- 3.7    18/02 PM   -0.2/ 0.3     3        NONE
    2.6- 3.1    19/03 AM    0.0/ 0.5     5        NONE
    3.2- 3.7    19/03 PM   -0.2/ 0.2    3-4       NONE
    2.3- 2.8    20/04 AM   -0.2/ 0.2     2        NONE
    3.2- 3.7    20/04 PM    0.0/ 0.5     2        NONE
    2.8- 3.4    21/05 AM    0.2/ 0.8     2        NONE

$$

MAZ020>023-RIZ006>008-181645-
/O.CAN.KBOX.CF.S.0010.000000T0000Z-161018T1900Z/
SOUTHERN BRISTOL MA-SOUTHERN PLYMOUTH MA-BARNSTABLE MA-DUKES MA-WASHINGTON RI-
NEWPORT RI-BLOCK ISLAND RI-
1140 AM EDT TUE OCT 18 2016

...ISOLATED MINOR FLOODING FROM MORNING TIDE SHOULD DRAIN BY EARLY
AFTERNOON...

* LOCATION...SOUTH COASTAL MASSACHUSETTS AND RHODE ISLAND

* COASTAL FLOODING...VERY HIGH ASTRONOMICAL TIDES COMBINED WITH A
  TIDAL DEPARTURE OF UP TO 0.5 FEET RESULTED IN POCKETS OF MINOR
  COASTAL FLOODING ALONG THE MOST VULNERABLE SHORE ROADS.

* TIMING...10 AM TO 2 PM

* IMPACTS...LEFT OVER TRAPPED WATER SHOULD DRAIN BY EARLY
  AFTERNOON ALONG THE MOST VULNERABLE SHORE ROADS

&&

ALL TIDE HEIGHTS ARE RELATIVE TO MEAN LOWER LOW WATER.
TIME OF HIGH TOTAL TIDES ARE APPROXIMATE TO THE NEAREST HOUR.

POINT JUDITH

     TOTAL
      TIDE      DAY/TIME     SURGE     WAVES      FLOOD
      /FT/                    /FT/      /FT/    CATEGORY
  -----------  ----------  ---------  -------  ----------
    4.0- 4.5    18/11 AM   -0.2/ 0.3    2-3       NONE
    4.4- 4.9    18/10 PM    0.6/ 1.1    4-5       NONE
    4.0- 4.5    19/11 AM   -0.2/ 0.2    3-4       NONE
    3.4- 3.9    19/11 PM   -0.2/ 0.2    2-3       NONE
    3.7- 4.2    20/12 PM   -0.2/ 0.2     2        NONE
    3.5- 4.0    21/12 AM    0.2/ 0.7     2        NONE

WESTERLY

     TOTAL
      TIDE      DAY/TIME     SURGE     WAVES      FLOOD
      /FT/                    /FT/      /FT/    CATEGORY
  -----------  ----------  ---------  -------  ----------
    3.4- 3.9    18/11 AM   -0.2/ 0.3     2        NONE
    2.7- 3.2    18/11 PM    0.0/ 0.5    3-4       NONE
    3.1- 3.6    19/12 PM   -0.2/ 0.2    2-3       NONE
    2.3- 2.8    20/12 AM   -0.2/ 0.2    1-2       NONE
    3.0- 3.5    20/01 PM   -0.2/ 0.2     1        NONE
    2.7- 3.2    21/01 AM    0.2/ 0.7     1        NONE

NEWPORT HARBOR

     TOTAL
      TIDE      DAY/TIME     SURGE     WAVES      FLOOD
      /FT/                    /FT/      /FT/    CATEGORY
  -----------  ----------  ---------  -------  ----------
    4.7- 5.2    18/11 AM    0.0/ 0.5     1        NONE
    5.1- 5.6    18/11 PM    0.7/ 1.1    2-3       NONE
    4.7- 5.2    19/11 AM   -0.2/ 0.2     1        NONE
    4.0- 4.5    19/11 PM   -0.2/ 0.2     1        NONE
    4.5- 5.0    20/12 PM   -0.2/ 0.2     1        NONE
    4.2- 4.7    21/12 AM    0.2/ 0.8     1        NONE

BLOCK ISLAND - OLD HARBOR

     TOTAL
      TIDE      DAY/TIME     SURGE     WAVES      FLOOD
      /FT/                    /FT/      /FT/    CATEGORY
  -----------  ----------  ---------  -------  ----------
    3.5- 4.0    18/11 AM   -0.2/ 0.3     3        NONE
    3.5- 4.0    18/10 PM    0.0/ 0.5    4-6       NONE
    3.7- 4.2    19/11 AM   -0.2/ 0.2    4-5       NONE
    3.1- 3.6    19/11 PM   -0.2/ 0.2     3        NONE
    3.5- 4.0    20/12 PM   -0.2/ 0.2     2        NONE
    3.2- 3.7    21/12 AM    0.2/ 0.7     2        NONE

WESTPORT

     TOTAL
      TIDE      DAY/TIME     SURGE     WAVES      FLOOD
      /FT/                    /FT/      /FT/    CATEGORY
  -----------  ----------  ---------  -------  ----------
    4.4- 4.9    18/11 AM   -0.2/ 0.3    2-3       NONE
    4.9- 5.4    18/10 PM    0.6/ 1.1    4-5       NONE
    4.6- 5.1    19/11 AM   -0.2/ 0.2    3-4       NONE
    3.9- 4.4    19/11 PM   -0.2/ 0.2     2        NONE
    4.2- 4.7    20/12 PM   -0.2/ 0.2    1-2       NONE
    4.0- 4.5    21/12 AM    0.2/ 0.7    1-2       NONE

FALL RIVER

     TOTAL
      TIDE      DAY/TIME     SURGE     WAVES      FLOOD
      /FT/                    /FT/      /FT/    CATEGORY
  -----------  ----------  ---------  -------  ----------
    5.6- 6.1    18/11 AM    0.1/ 0.6     1        NONE
    5.7- 6.2    18/11 PM    0.7/ 1.1    1-2       NONE
    5.6- 6.1    19/11 AM    0.0/ 0.5     1        NONE
    4.6- 5.1    20/12 AM   -0.2/ 0.2     1        NONE
    5.1- 5.6    20/12 PM   -0.2/ 0.2     1        NONE
    4.9- 5.4    21/01 AM    0.2/ 0.8     1        NONE

NEW BEDFORD - OUTSIDE HURRICANE BARRIER

     TOTAL
      TIDE      DAY/TIME     SURGE     WAVES      FLOOD
      /FT/                    /FT/      /FT/    CATEGORY
  -----------  ----------  ---------  -------  ----------
    4.6- 5.1    18/11 AM    0.0/ 0.5     1        NONE
    4.7- 5.2    18/11 PM    0.6/ 1.1    2-4       NONE
    4.6- 5.1    19/11 AM   -0.2/ 0.3     1        NONE
    3.7- 4.2    20/12 AM   -0.2/ 0.2     1        NONE
    4.2- 4.7    20/12 PM   -0.2/ 0.2     1        NONE
    4.0- 4.5    21/01 AM    0.2/ 0.7     1        NONE

MATTAPOISETT

     TOTAL
      TIDE      DAY/TIME     SURGE     WAVES      FLOOD
      /FT/                    /FT/      /FT/    CATEGORY
  -----------  ----------  ---------  -------  ----------
    4.5- 5.0    18/11 AM    0.0/ 0.5     1        NONE
    4.7- 5.2    18/11 PM    0.7/ 1.1     4        NONE
    4.6- 5.1    19/11 AM   -0.2/ 0.3     1        NONE
    3.7- 4.2    20/12 AM   -0.2/ 0.2     1        NONE
    4.2- 4.7    20/12 PM   -0.2/ 0.2     1        NONE
    3.9- 4.4    21/01 AM    0.2/ 0.7     1        NONE

WAREHAM

     TOTAL
      TIDE      DAY/TIME     SURGE     WAVES      FLOOD
      /FT/                    /FT/      /FT/    CATEGORY
  -----------  ----------  ---------  -------  ----------
    5.0- 5.5    18/11 AM    0.0/ 0.5     1        NONE
    5.2- 5.7    18/11 PM    0.7/ 1.1     2        NONE
    5.1- 5.6    19/11 AM    0.0/ 0.5     1        NONE
    4.0- 4.5    20/12 AM   -0.2/ 0.2     1        NONE
    4.6- 5.1    20/12 PM   -0.2/ 0.2     1        NONE
    4.2- 4.7    21/01 AM    0.2/ 0.7     1        NONE

SANDWICH / DENNIS

     TOTAL
      TIDE      DAY/TIME     SURGE     WAVES      FLOOD
      /FT/                    /FT/      /FT/    CATEGORY
  -----------  ----------  ---------  -------  ----------
    12.0-12.5    18/01 PM    0.5/ 1.0     1        NONE
   10.5-11.0    19/02 AM    0.0/ 0.5     2        NONE
   11.2-11.7    19/02 PM   -0.2/ 0.2     1        NONE
    9.9-10.4    20/03 AM   -0.2/ 0.2    1-2       NONE
   11.1-11.6    20/03 PM    0.1/ 0.6    1-2       NONE
    9.9-10.4    21/04 AM    0.2/ 0.7     1        NONE

PROVINCETOWN HARBOR

     TOTAL
      TIDE      DAY/TIME     SURGE     WAVES      FLOOD
      /FT/                    /FT/      /FT/    CATEGORY
  -----------  ----------  ---------  -------  ----------
    12.3-12.8    18/01 PM    0.2/ 0.8     1        NONE
   11.0-11.5    19/02 AM    0.0/ 0.5    3-4       NONE
   11.6-12.1    19/02 PM   -0.2/ 0.2     1        NONE
   10.4-10.9    20/03 AM   -0.2/ 0.2    1-2       NONE
   11.5-12.0    20/03 PM    0.1/ 0.6     2        NONE
   10.5-11.0    21/04 AM    0.2/ 0.8     2        NONE

CHATHAM - EAST COAST

     TOTAL
      TIDE      DAY/TIME     SURGE     WAVES      FLOOD
      /FT/                    /FT/      /FT/    CATEGORY
  -----------  ----------  ---------  -------  ----------
    7.5- 8.0    18/02 PM    0.5/ 1.0    3-4       NONE
    6.0- 6.5    19/03 AM   -0.2/ 0.3     5        NONE
    6.8- 7.3    19/03 PM   -0.2/ 0.2    2-3       NONE
    5.7- 6.2    20/04 AM   -0.2/ 0.2     2        NONE
    7.0- 7.5    20/04 PM    0.1/ 0.6     3        NONE
    5.9- 6.4    21/05 AM    0.2/ 0.7     3        NONE

CHATHAM - SOUTH COAST

     TOTAL
      TIDE      DAY/TIME     SURGE     WAVES      FLOOD
      /FT/                    /FT/      /FT/    CATEGORY
  -----------  ----------  ---------  -------  ----------
    5.0- 5.5    18/02 PM    0.0/ 0.5    1-2       NONE
    4.0- 4.5    19/03 AM   -0.2/ 0.3     3        NONE
    4.7- 5.2    19/03 PM   -0.2/ 0.2    1-2       NONE
    3.9- 4.4    20/04 AM   -0.2/ 0.2     1        NONE
    5.0- 5.5    20/04 PM    0.1/ 0.6     2        NONE
    4.2- 4.7    21/05 AM    0.2/ 0.7     2        NONE

BUZZARDS BAY - WOODS HOLE

     TOTAL
      TIDE      DAY/TIME     SURGE     WAVES      FLOOD
      /FT/                    /FT/      /FT/    CATEGORY
  -----------  ----------  ---------  -------  ----------
    2.8- 3.4    18/11 AM   -0.2/ 0.3     1        NONE
    2.3- 2.8    18/11 PM    0.1/ 0.6     2        NONE
    2.7- 3.2    19/11 AM   -0.2/ 0.2     1        NONE
    1.9- 2.3    20/12 AM   -0.2/ 0.2     1        NONE
    2.6- 3.1    20/12 PM   -0.2/ 0.2     1        NONE
    2.2- 2.7    21/01 AM    0.2/ 0.7     1        NONE

WINGS NECK

     TOTAL
      TIDE      DAY/TIME     SURGE     WAVES      FLOOD
      /FT/                    /FT/      /FT/    CATEGORY
  -----------  ----------  ---------  -------  ----------
    5.0- 5.5    18/11 AM    0.0/ 0.5     1        NONE
    5.2- 5.7    18/11 PM    0.7/ 1.1     2        NONE
    5.1- 5.6    19/11 AM    0.0/ 0.5     1        NONE
    4.0- 4.5    20/12 AM   -0.2/ 0.2     1        NONE
    4.6- 5.1    20/12 PM   -0.2/ 0.2     1        NONE
    4.2- 4.7    21/01 AM    0.2/ 0.7     1        NONE

VINEYARD HAVEN

     TOTAL
      TIDE      DAY/TIME     SURGE     WAVES      FLOOD
      /FT/                    /FT/      /FT/    CATEGORY
  -----------  ----------  ---------  -------  ----------
    2.3- 2.8    18/02 PM   -0.2/ 0.3    1-2       NONE
    2.2- 2.7    19/03 PM   -0.2/ 0.2     1        NONE
    1.6- 2.0    20/04 AM   -0.2/ 0.2     1        NONE
    2.5- 3.0    20/04 PM    0.0/ 0.5     1        NONE
    2.2- 2.7    21/05 AM    0.2/ 0.8     1        NONE

$$

MAZ007-015-016-019-181900-
/O.CON.KBOX.CF.Y.0012.161018T1600Z-161018T1900Z/
EASTERN ESSEX MA-SUFFOLK MA-EASTERN NORFOLK MA-EASTERN PLYMOUTH MA-
1140 AM EDT TUE OCT 18 2016

...COASTAL FLOOD ADVISORY REMAINS IN EFFECT UNTIL 3 PM EDT THIS AFTERNOON...

* LOCATION...EAST COASTAL MASSACHUSETTS.

* COASTAL FLOODING...VERY HIGH ASTRONOMICAL TIDES COMBINED WITH A
  TIDAL DEPARTURE OF .5 TO 1 FOOT WILL RESULT IN MINOR FLOODING ALONG
  THE MOST VULNERABLE SHORE ROADS.

* TIMING...BETWEEN NOON AND 3 PM.

* IMPACTS...FLOODING IS LIKELY ALONG THE MOST VULNERABLE SHORE
  ROADS INCLUDING BUT NOT LIMITED TO MORRISSEY BOULEVARD IN
  BOSTON AND EDWARD FOSTER ROAD IN SCITUATE. SOME FLOODING IS ALSO
  POSSIBLE ALONG SOME OF THE DOWNTOWN BOSTON WHARFS EARLY TO MID
  AFTERNOON.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

A COASTAL FLOOD ADVISORY IS ISSUED FOR MINOR COASTAL FLOODING OF THE MOST
VULNERABLE SHORE ROADS AND/OR BASEMENTS DUE TO THE HEIGHT OF STORM TIDE OR WAVE
SPLASHOVER. THE MAJORITY OF ROADS REMAIN PASSABLE WITH ONLY ISOLATED CLOSURES.
THERE IS NO SIGNIFICANT THREAT TO LIFE...AND IMPACT ON PROPERTY
IS MINIMAL.

&&

&&

ALL TIDE HEIGHTS ARE RELATIVE TO MEAN LOWER LOW WATER.
TIME OF HIGH TOTAL TIDES ARE APPROXIMATE TO THE NEAREST HOUR.

NEWBURYPORT

     TOTAL
      TIDE      DAY/TIME     SURGE     WAVES      FLOOD
      /FT/                    /FT/      /FT/    CATEGORY
  -----------  ----------  ---------  -------  ----------
    10.9-11.4    18/02 PM    0.6/ 1.1    3-4       NONE
    9.2- 9.7    19/02 AM   -0.2/ 0.3     4        NONE
   10.0-10.5    19/02 PM   -0.2/ 0.2     2        NONE
    8.8- 9.3    20/03 AM   -0.2/ 0.2    1-2       NONE
    9.8-10.3    20/03 PM   -0.2/ 0.3    2-3       NONE
    8.8- 9.3    21/04 AM    0.1/ 0.6     2        NONE

GLOUCESTER HARBOR

     TOTAL
      TIDE      DAY/TIME     SURGE     WAVES      FLOOD
      /FT/                    /FT/      /FT/    CATEGORY
  -----------  ----------  ---------  -------  ----------
    12.3-12.8    18/01 PM    0.6/ 1.1     4       MINOR
   10.6-11.1    19/02 AM    0.0/ 0.5     5        NONE
   11.4-11.9    19/02 PM   -0.2/ 0.2    2-3       NONE
   10.1-10.6    20/03 AM   -0.2/ 0.2     2        NONE
   11.4-11.9    20/03 PM    0.1/ 0.6     3        NONE
   10.1-10.6    21/04 AM    0.2/ 0.7     3        NONE

REVERE

     TOTAL
      TIDE      DAY/TIME     SURGE     WAVES      FLOOD
      /FT/                    /FT/      /FT/    CATEGORY
  -----------  ----------  ---------  -------  ----------
    12.4-12.9    18/01 PM    0.2/ 0.8    2-3       NONE
   11.1-11.6    19/02 AM    0.0/ 0.5    3-4       NONE
   11.8-12.3    19/02 PM   -0.2/ 0.2     2        NONE
   10.5-11.0    20/03 AM   -0.2/ 0.2    1-2       NONE
   11.8-12.3    20/03 PM    0.2/ 0.7     2        NONE
   10.4-10.9    21/04 AM    0.2/ 0.7     2        NONE

BOSTON HARBOR

     TOTAL
      TIDE      DAY/TIME     SURGE     WAVES      FLOOD
      /FT/                    /FT/      /FT/    CATEGORY
  -----------  ----------  ---------  -------  ----------
    12.5-13.0    18/01 PM    0.2/ 0.8    1-2      MINOR
   11.0-11.5    19/02 AM   -0.2/ 0.2     2        NONE
   11.9-12.4    19/02 PM   -0.2/ 0.2     1        NONE
   10.6-11.1    20/03 AM   -0.2/ 0.2     1        NONE
   11.5-12.0    20/03 PM   -0.2/ 0.2     2        NONE
   10.2-10.7    21/04 AM   -0.2/ 0.3     1        NONE

SCITUATE

     TOTAL
      TIDE      DAY/TIME     SURGE     WAVES      FLOOD
      /FT/                    /FT/      /FT/    CATEGORY
  -----------  ----------  ---------  -------  ----------
    12.0-12.5    18/01 PM    0.5/ 1.0     3       MINOR
   10.3-10.8    19/02 AM   -0.2/ 0.3     4        NONE
   11.2-11.7    19/02 PM   -0.2/ 0.2     2        NONE
   10.0-10.5    20/03 AM   -0.2/ 0.2    1-2       NONE
   11.2-11.7    20/03 PM    0.1/ 0.6     3        NONE
    9.9-10.4    21/04 AM    0.1/ 0.6     2        NONE

$$

THOMPSON

$$
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Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Taunton MA
724 AM EDT Tue Oct 18 2016

.SYNOPSIS...
A backdoor front will slip south across northern MA this morning
before lifting to the north this afternoon. A weak cold front will
drop south across the region during Wednesday. Unseasonably warm
conditions are expected through Wednesday with the potential for a
few near record high temperatures. Unsettled weather likely at
times Thursday and Friday. Not as warm late week but still mild
for mid Oct. A drying and cooling trend likely next weekend.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING/...
7 AM update...
Remnant convective shra dissipate this morning as primary moisture
source and upper lvl shortwave moves offshore. However, backdoor
cold front continues to slide WSW and is now draped mainly from
the Worcester hills to Plymouth. Expect it to stall and then
slowly begin to lift N through the late morning and early
afternoon as the S LLJ becomes established. This continues to make
temp forecasting a bit tricky, but it appears latest meso-scale
guidance is capturing current frontal movement well, so
adjustments this morning lean heavily on their solutions. Mainly
used the HRRR/WRF runs.

Previous discussion...

Showers assocd with weakening convective complex are moving across
NE MA and will clip portions of SE coastal MA and Cape Cod before
moving offshore around daybreak. These showers will help to push
a weak backdoor front south across northern MA which will make for
a difficult temp forecast across portions of NE MA and a sharp
gradient across the region. Much of the hi-res guidance holds
temps in the 60s for much of the day across NE MA while
increasing SW flow to the south and west of the boundary will
push temps into the upper 70s to lower 80s. The forecast challenge
is whether the increasing SW flow will eventually win out and
allow temps to spike into the 70s by late day in NE MA. As low
level jet develops we think the increasing SW flow and warmer air
will eventually make it into NE MA but this is lower confidence
given the hi-res guidance and later forecasts may need to adjust
temps. At the very least, the cooler air will likely persist into
early afternoon in NE MA.

Otherwise, cloud cover moving across the region early this morning
will move out with clearing and increasing sunshine developing
from the west and southwest. Dewpoints will climb into the lower
60s today making for humid conditions and it will become rather
breezy by mid/late afternoon as low level jet develops. SW gusts
to 25-30 mph expected.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH 6 PM WEDNESDAY/...
Tonight into Wednesday...
Weak cold front moving east from the Great Lakes will drop south
across northern New England tonight and move into SNE during Wed.
Forcing for ascent is limited but deep moisture axis moves in
ahead of the boundary with PWATs briefly increasing to 1.5". This
may support a few brief showers moving north to south across the
region late tonight into Wed morning within the axis of deeper
moisture. The front will bring increasing cloud cover which will
linger into Wed before clearing moves in from the north during the
afternoon.

Temps...it will be a mild night tonight with low temps only in
the upper 50s to lower 60s. Max temps Wed a bit tricky due to the
cloud potential but clearing should be moving in from the north in
the afternoon. Low level temps are still quite mild with 17-19C at
925 mb and winds will be shifting to the west so expect another
warm day with highs upper 70s to lower 80s across much of the
region. In addition it will be quite humid with dewpoints reaching
the low to mid 60s in the morning, especially south of the Pike
but drier air will move in from north to south during the
afternoon with dewpoints falling through the 50s.

&&

.LONG TERM /WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY/...
Highlights...

* Widespread showers possible both Thu and Fri
* Drying and cooling trend as the

Overview and model preferences...
Zonal flow gradually gives way to digging trof across the E CONUS
and Canada as cutoff low currently in the Canadian prairie shifts
toward the E. Initial low pres development in the OH valley will
likely shift W of the region as an inside runner. However, will
need to monitor a tropical disturbance N of Dominica which could
be captured by the developing trof, increasing moisture and
dynamics, and slowing the overall progression. Current models
vary, with the ECMWF most progressive, and the NAM least. While
the operational GFS falls in between these two solutions, it too
is much slower than the ECMWF and several ensemble members from
both the GEFs and ECENS. Given the difficulty guidance often has
with these mid-late period tropical phasing situations, will
likely need a bit more time to fully nail this down. However,
given the current forecast, will put more weight on the middle
solutions from the GFS and ensemble means.

Details...

Wed night...
Warm front stalled to the S will attempt to make a push to the N.
However, am concerned it may struggle a bit to push N as guidance
does show building high pres to the NE with inverted ridging into
SNE. Bulk of moisture remains upstream and the upper lvl jet RRQ
remains to the west through the overnight hours, therefore, aside
from increasing clouds expect mainly dry conditions. Mins mainly
in the low-mid 50s.

Thu and Thu night...
Developing low pres will move out of the OH valley and shift
under the RRQ of the strong upper lvl jet streak as it shifts into
NY state. Steering flow defined by the digging upper trof suggests
the core of low pres should pass to the W by Thu night. Warm front
finally shifts into N New England with warm sector LLJ energy
pushing moisture across SNE as it passes. With PWATS nearing 1
std deviation above normal, expect widespread shra to accompany
this warm frontal passage. Daytime conditions cool and wet, thanks
to E flow with the warm front, shifting to traditional warm sector
warming overnight. Total precip values will vary, but around a
quarter inch is possible. Temps mainly in the mid 50s to low 60s.

Fri into early Sat...
Upper lvl trof may capture leftover tropical disturbance
offshore. The timing of this capture will define how impact SNE
will ultimately see. PWATS associated with this feature are about
2 std deviations above normal. So while there is the potential for
widespread mod-hvy rainfall it will depend on how far offshore the
phasing occurs. ECMWF is the latest, hence why it is most
progressive. Will need to continue to monitor, as it could be a
wet period with a good soaking (1.00+ inches) of rainfall thanks
to the tropical influence. Probabilities favor the east half of
the region at this time.

Otherwise, expect blustery NW winds on the backside of this
feature early Sat which may require a localized wind advisory.
Temps Fri in the mid-upper 60s with lows Fri night dependent on
how quickly rainfall/clouds clear out.

Rest of Sat and Sun...
Fall returns with gusto. Cold advection aloft will allow H85
temps to drop to -3C to -5C while H92 temps hover between 0C and
+2C by Sat night into Sun morning. This suggests a definite cool
down from the anomalously warmer temperatures this week. Also,
with cold advection could yield some shra development even in NW
flow thanks to decent low-mid lvl lapse rates. At the very least,
a lot of diurnal CU can be expected along with brisk NW winds each
day. Highs will remain in the 50s and while overnight mins could
dip into the 30s across much of the region, especially if, by Sun
night, the pres gradient slackens enough to allow for radiational
cooling.

Mon into Tue...
Secondary reinforcing shortwave passage. While QPF will be
dependent on column moisture, it may come through mainly dry.
However, it will prolong the fall like conditions thanks to
another round of cold advection with the wave passage.

&&

.AVIATION /12Z TUESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
Forecaster Confidence Levels.

Low - less than 30 percent.
Moderate - 30 to 60 percent.
High - greater than 60 percent.

Short Term /through Wednesday/...

Today...High confidence.
Early morning mix of IFR/MVFR and VFR will give way to all VFR as
sites currently in the lower categories lift through 15Z. Timing
may be off by an hour or so in the TAF, but the overall trend is
expected. Otherwise once VFR, expect VFR to remain until late
evening. Winds shift through the day, giving way to primarily S by
late afternoon.

Tonight...Moderate confidence. Mainly VFR with 4-8K FT cigs
developing. Low risk of a brief shower late tonight, especially
north. Low confidence on potential for IFR fog. Diminishing wind.

Wednesday...Moderate confidence. Mainly VFR cigs with clearing
moving across northern areas during the afternoon. Low risk of a
brief shower south of the Pike in the morning.

Outlook /Wednesday Night through Saturday/...

Wed night into Fri night...Moderate confidence.
Although somewhat uncertain, mainly due to timing concerns,
periods of IFR/MVFR certainly possible through this entire period
thanks to a mix of low clouds and occasional rainfall. Some fog
also possible. Easterly flow until late Fri, at which point, winds
may shift to the S.

Sat and Sun...Moderate confidence.
Improvement to VFR all terminals during the daytime Sat. However,
strong NW winds could gust 25 to 35 mph.

&&

.MARINE...
Forecaster Confidence Levels.

Low - less than 30 percent.
Moderate - 30 to 60 percent.
High - greater than 60 percent.

Short Term /through Wednesday/...High confidence.

Today into tonight...Increasing SW winds expected this afternoon
as low level jet develops. Gusts to 25-30 kt developing which
will linger into the evening before diminishing. Seas building to
5-7 ft over the outer waters.

Wednesday...Expect SW winds less than 20 kt with diminishing seas.

Outlook /Wednesday Night through Saturday/...

Wed night into Thu night...High confidence.
Although some showers may spread over the waters, the east flow
should remain light enough to limit wave development. Therefore,
not expecting headlines through this period.

Fri and Fri night...Moderate confidence.
Uncertain, primarily whether low pres from the S will join with
low pres across the mainland over or east of the waters. In any
case, building swells and shifting winds could lead to small craft
advisory conditions. Waves nearing 7 ft on the ocean waters are
possible, along with E winds shifting to the S and SE with gusts
to 20 kt.

Sat and Sun...Moderate confidence.
 Winds shift to the NW and could reach near Gale force Sat
afternoon into Sun. Seas maintain 6-9 ft. At the very least small
craft advisories are likely. However, Gales may be needed as well.

&&

.TIDES/COASTAL FLOODING...
Astronomical tides are quite high this afternoon with BOS tide at
12.3 ft at 121 pm. Current tidal departure is 0.7 ft at 4 AM and
ESTOFS shows up to a 0.5 ft departure around high tide. This
combined with seas up to 4 ft just offshore and NE winds
developing behind front across NE MA will likely result in minor
splashover along most vulnerable shore roads across east coastal
MA. We issued a coastal flood statement to highlight this
potential.

&&

.CLIMATE...
Record High Temperatures:

Tuesday October 18th                Wednesday October 19th

Boston 82 in 1947                   Boston 84 in 1945
Worcester 85 in 1908                Worcester 81 in 1963
Providence 85 in 1908               Providence 81 in 1945
Hartford 80 in 1968                 Hartford 82 in 1963

&&

.BOX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
CT...None.
MA...None.
RI...None.
MARINE...Small Craft Advisory from 2 PM this afternoon to 8 AM EDT
     Wednesday for ANZ232>235-237-255-256.
     Small Craft Advisory from 4 PM this afternoon to 11 PM EDT
     this evening for ANZ230.
     Small Craft Advisory from 4 PM this afternoon to 2 AM EDT
     Wednesday for ANZ231-251.
     Small Craft Advisory from 2 PM this afternoon to 2 AM EDT
     Wednesday for ANZ236.
     Small Craft Advisory until 8 AM EDT Wednesday for ANZ250-254.

&&

SYNOPSIS...KJC/Doody
NEAR TERM...KJC/Doody
SHORT TERM...KJC
LONG TERM...Doody
AVIATION...KJC/Doody
MARINE...KJC/Doody
TIDES/COASTAL FLOODING...
CLIMATE...

HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TAUNTON MA
404 AM EDT TUE OCT 18 2016

CTZ002>004-MAZ002>006-008>014-017-018-020>024-026-RIZ001>008-190815-
HARTFORD CT-TOLLAND CT-WINDHAM CT-WESTERN FRANKLIN MA-
EASTERN FRANKLIN MA-NORTHERN WORCESTER MA-CENTRAL MIDDLESEX MA-
WESTERN ESSEX MA-WESTERN HAMPSHIRE MA-WESTERN HAMPDEN MA-
EASTERN HAMPSHIRE MA-EASTERN HAMPDEN MA-SOUTHERN WORCESTER MA-
WESTERN NORFOLK MA-SOUTHEAST MIDDLESEX MA-NORTHERN BRISTOL MA-
WESTERN PLYMOUTH MA-SOUTHERN BRISTOL MA-SOUTHERN PLYMOUTH MA-
BARNSTABLE MA-DUKES MA-NANTUCKET MA-NORTHERN MIDDLESEX MA-
NORTHWEST PROVIDENCE RI-SOUTHEAST PROVIDENCE RI-WESTERN KENT RI-
EASTERN KENT RI-BRISTOL RI-WASHINGTON RI-NEWPORT RI-BLOCK ISLAND RI-
404 AM EDT TUE OCT 18 2016

THIS HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK IS FOR NORTHERN CONNECTICUT...CENTRAL
MASSACHUSETTS...EASTERN
MASSACHUSETTS...NORTHEASTERN MASSACHUSETTS...SOUTHEASTERN
MASSACHUSETTS...WESTERN MASSACHUSETTS...AND RHODE ISLAND.

.DAY ONE...TODAY AND TONIGHT.

NO HAZARDOUS WEATHER IS EXPECTED AT THIS TIME.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...WEDNESDAY THROUGH MONDAY.

NO HAZARDOUS WEATHER IS EXPECTED AT THIS TIME.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

SPOTTER ACTIVATION IS NOT EXPECTED AT THIS TIME.

ANZ230>237-250-251-254>256-190815-
BOSTON HARBOR-CAPE COD BAY-NANTUCKET SOUND-VINEYARD SOUND-
BUZZARDS BAY-RHODE ISLAND SOUND-NARRAGANSETT BAY-BLOCK ISLAND SOUND-
COASTAL WATERS EAST OF IPSWICH BAY AND THE STELLWAGEN BANK NATIONAL
MARINE SANCTUARY-MASSACHUSETTS BAY AND IPSWICH BAY-
COASTAL WATERS FROM PROVINCETOWN MA TO CHATHAM MA TO NANTUCKET MA
OUT 20 NM-
COASTAL WATERS EXTENDING OUT TO 25 NM SOUTH OF MARTHAS VINEYARD AND
NANTUCKET-
COASTAL WATERS FROM MONTAUK NY TO MARTHAS VINEYARD EXTENDING OUT TO
20 NM SOUTH OF BLOCK ISLAND-
404 AM EDT TUE OCT 18 2016

THIS HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK IS FOR MASSACHUSETTS AND RHODE
ISLAND COASTAL WATERS.

.DAY ONE...TODAY AND TONIGHT.

NO HAZARDOUS WEATHER IS EXPECTED AT THIS TIME.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...WEDNESDAY THROUGH MONDAY.

NO HAZARDOUS WEATHER IS EXPECTED AT THIS TIME.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

SPOTTER ACTIVATION IS NOT EXPECTED AT THIS TIME.

MAZ007-015-016-019-190815-
EASTERN ESSEX MA-SUFFOLK MA-EASTERN NORFOLK MA-EASTERN PLYMOUTH MA-
404 AM EDT TUE OCT 18 2016

THIS HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK IS FOR EASTERN
MASSACHUSETTS...NORTHEASTERN MASSACHUSETTS AND SOUTHEASTERN
MASSACHUSETTS.

.DAY ONE...TODAY AND TONIGHT.

ASTRONOMICALLY HIGH TIDES PEAK EARLY THIS AFTERNOON. WITH WEAK
ONSHORE FLOW AND BUILDING SEAS OFFSHORE...SOME TYPICALLY PRONE
COASTAL LOCATION MAY SEE MINOR AFTERNOON SPLASHOVER.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...WEDNESDAY THROUGH MONDAY.

NO HAZARDOUS WEATHER IS EXPECTED AT THIS TIME.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

SPOTTER ACTIVATION IS NOT EXPECTED AT THIS TIME.

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