Winter Weather Advisory 2, NWS Denver/Boulder, CO

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DENVER/BOULDER CO
339 AM MST FRI JAN 15 2016

.SHORT TERM...(TODAY AND TONIGHT)
ISSUED AT 338 AM MST FRI JAN 15 2016

RATHER COMPLICATED FCST FOR LATER TODAY AND TONIGHT AS A DIFFUSE
UPPER LEVEL TROUGH MOVES ACROSS THE AREA. ONE PIECE OF ENERGY
WILL TRACK TO THE SW OF THE AREA TODAY WHILE A SECOND PIECE OF
ENERGY WILL MOVE ACROSS THE AREA TONIGHT. QG FIELDS SHOW MINOR QG
DESCENT THRU THE AFTN WITH SOME MID LVL ASCENT TONIGHT. MEANWHILE
LAPSE RATES WILL IMPROVE THRU THE AFTN INTO TONIGHT AND BECOME
RATHER UNSTABLE WITH LATEST SOUNDINGS BECOMING MOIST ADIABATIC.
COMBINATION OF THESE FACTORS ALONG WITH FAVORABLE OROGRAPHIC
COMPONENT SHOULD LEAD TO LOWER END ADVISORY AMOUNTS IN THE MTNS.
IN ADDITION GUSTY WINDS WILL PRODUCE AREAS OF BLOWING SNOW OVER
THE HIGHER PASSES.

AT LOWER ELEVATIONS CONFIDENCE IN FCST FOR TONIGHT IS PRETTY LOW
WITH RESPECT TO WHERE A BAND OF STEADIER SNOW MAY DVLP THIS EVENING.
WITH NWLY LOW LVL WINDS ACROSS THE CHEYENNE RIDGE THIS WILL LEAD TO
SOME TYPE OF LONGMONT ANTICYCLONE WHILE AT THE SAME TIME SFC LOW
PRES DVLPS SOUTH OF DENVER.  THIS SETUP LEADS TO SOME ENHANCEMENT OF
UPSLOPE FLOW ALONG PORTIONS OF THE FRONT RANGE LATER THIS AFTN INTO
THE EVENING HOURS.  AS MENTIONED ABV LAPSE RATES WILL BE RATHER
UNSTABLE AND AS 2ND PIECE OF ENERGY MOVES ACROSS TONIGHT THIS COULD
LEAD TO SOME STEADIER SNOWFALL OVER PORTIONS OF THE FRONT RANGE AND
PLAINS WITH SNOWFALL AMOUNTS FROM 1 TO 3 INCHES POSSIBLE IN A FEW
AREAS. HOWEVER AT THIS POINT NOT SURE WHERE TO PUT HIGHER POPS SO
FOR NOW WILL JUST MENTION A CHC FOR SNOW AS HOPEFULLY THE DAY SHIFT
CAN GET A BETTER HANDLE ON THINGS. AS FOR HIGHS THIS AFTN OVER THE
PLAINS WILL BE MAINLY IN THE 30S.

.LONG TERM...(SATURDAY THROUGH THURSDAY)
ISSUED AT 338 AM MST FRI JAN 15 2016

...ACTIVE WEATHER PATTERN CONTINUES...

SNOW AND BLOWING SNOW IN THE MOUNTAINS WILL GRADUALLY TAPER OFF
SATURDAY MORNING AS MOISTURE DEPTH DECREASES CONSIDERABLY AND
SUBSIDENCE TAKES HOLD. MAYBE ONLY AN INCH OR SO MORE IN THE
MORNING BUT STILL EXPECT IMPACTS ON MOUNTAINS ROADS INCLUDING THE
SATURDAY MORNING TREK TO SKI RESORTS. THEREFORE WILL CONTINUE THE
ADVISORY INTO THE SATURDAY MORNING HOURS. BY SATURDAY
AFTERNOON...DONT SEE MUCH MORE THAN SCATTERED LIGHT SNOW SHOWERS
LINGERING MAINLY OVER THE NORTHERN MOUNTAINS. ON THE PLAINS...ANY
SNOW WILL LIKELY EXIT THE AREA BY DAYBREAK SATURDAY...WITH SOME
CLEARING AND DOWNSLOPE EXPECTED.

ATTENTION WILL THEN TURN TOWARD NEXT WEATHER SYSTEM DUE IN
SATURDAY NIGHT. THIS NEXT DISTURBANCE IS JUST A PIECE OF THE
LARGE CYCLONE SPINNING OVER THE NORTHERN PACIFIC. ONE CHUNK OF ITS
ENERGY WILL ARRIVE ON THE WEST COAST LATE TONIGHT AND SATURDAY
MORNING AND THEN QUICKLY PUSH ACROSS THE INTERMOUNTAIN WEST AND
REACH OUR FORECAST AREA BY SATURDAY EVENING. THIS SYSTEM IS MUCH
RICHER WITH ITS MOISTURE CONTENT PER THE LAST PRECIPITABLE WATER
AND SPEC HUMIDITY PROGS. OROGRAPHICS ARE ALSO A LITTLE STRONGER
WITH 700 MB WINDS NEAR 30-35 KNOTS IMPINGING ON THE MOUNTAINS.
HOWEVER...THERE IS SLIGHT WARM ADVECTION AND STABILIZATION WHICH
IS NOT FAVORABLE FOR SNOW IN OUR MOUNTAINS. AS A RESULT...CURRENT
THINKING IS FOR ANOTHER ROUND OF ADVISORY CRITERIA SNOWFALL IN THE
3 TO 10 INCH RANGE FOR THE NORTHERN COLORADO MOUNTAINS ABOVE 9000
FEET...HEAVIEST TOWARD RABBIT EARS PASS. WINDS WILL REMAIN STRONG
THROUGHOUT THIS EVENT WITH MORE BLOWING SNOW AND REDUCED
VISIBILITIES AS WELL.

ON THE PLAINS...SHOULD SEE ANOTHER BAND OR TWO OF SNOW GENERATE
LATE SATURDAY NIGHT INTO SUNDAY MORNING. AT THIS TIME...THE ODDS
FAVOR THE EASTERN PLAINS A BIT MORE THAN TONIGHTS EVENT...BUT
THERE IS A SURGE OF MUCH COLDER AIR WHICH MODELS ARE ALSO PROBABLY
NOT HANDLING WELL. THIS COULD RESULT IN SHALLOW UPSLOPE AND A
BETTER CHANCE OF SNOW ALONG THE FRONT RANGE. WILL CONTINUE TO
MONITOR THIS POTENTIAL. AGAIN...POTENTIAL FOR LOCAL SNOW
ACCUMULATIONS UPWARDS OF 1-2 INCHES WHILE OTHER AREAS SEE LITTLE
OR NO SNOW.

SNOW WILL DECREASE IN THE MOUNTAINS AND ON THE PLAINS BY SUNDAY
AFTERNOON AS SUBSIDENCE...DRYING...AND WARM ADVECTION ALOFT
OCCUR. MOUNTAIN TOP STABLE LAYER STRENGTHENS BY SUNDAY NIGHT SO
GUSTY MOUNTAIN WAVE WINDS POSSIBLE IN/NEXT TO THE FRONT RANGE
MOUNTAINS AND FOOTHILLS...BUT HIGH WIND POTENTIAL WOULD BE LIMITED
BY MARGINAL CROSS MOUNTAIN COMPONENT.

WE CONTINUE TO EXPECT WARMING FOR MONDAY WITH SOME UPPER LEVEL
RIDGING AND STRONG WARM ADVECTION ALOFT. THERE ARE NOW SIGNS
HOWEVER THAT THE NEXT SHORT WAVE COULD ARRIVE AS EARLY AS MONDAY
NIGHT FOR COOLING AND ANOTHER ROUND OF MOUNTAIN SNOW.

FOR TUESDAY AND BEYOND...STILL HAVING TROUBLES WITH ALL THE WAVES
AND FAST FLOW WHICH MAKES TIMING QUITE DIFFICULT. AVERAGES OF THE
MODELS WOULD STILL BRING A CHANCE OF SNOW AGAIN AND SOME COOLING
AGAIN BY WEDNESDAY...WITH ANOTHER WARMUP BY THURSDAY. WILL PLAY IT
PRETTY CLOSE TO CLIMATOLOGY CONSIDERING THE LACK OF CONFIDENCE IN
THIS TIME FRAME.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 12Z TAFS THROUGH 12Z SATURDAY MORNING)
ISSUED AT 338 AM MST FRI JAN 15 2016

CONFIDENCE IN WIND AND PCPN FCST NOT HIGH TODAY OR TONIGHT. THERE
COULD BE A BAND OF STEADIER SNOW THIS EVENING FOR A FEW HOURS
BETWEEN 6 PM AND MIDNIGHT SOMEWHERE OVER THE AREA WHICH COULD DROP
UP TO AN INCH OF SNOW. CONFIDENCE IS AROUND 30% FOR THIS BAND TO
AFFECT LOCAL AIRPORTS. IF IT DOES DVLP THEN NATURALLY CEILINGS AND
VISIBILITIES WILL DROP DOWN TO LIFR FOR A FEW HOURS THIS EVENING.
AFTER MIDNIGHT SNOW THREAT SHOULD SHIFT TO THE EAST OF THE AREA.

AS FOR WINDS THEY HAVE BEEN WLY EARLY THIS MORNING AT DIA AND NOT
SURE HOW LONG THIS WILL LAST SINCE NONE OF THE MODELS HAVE ANY TYPE
OF WLY WINDS AFFECTING THE AREA THIS MORNING.  AT SOME POINT ONE
WOULD THINK WITH A LONGMONT ANTICYCLONE DEVELOPING TO THE NORTH
LATER THIS MORNING WHILE LOW PRES DVLPS OVER THE PALMER DIVIDE THAT
WINDS WOULD EVENTUALLY BECOME MORE SELY BY LATE MORNING AND THEN
MORE ELY BY MID TO LATE AFTN.  BY EARLY EVENING WINDS MAY SHIFT TO
MORE NE FOR A FEW HOURS BEFORE BECOMING LIGHT DRAINAGE BY 06Z.

&&

.BOU WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY FROM NOON TODAY TO 9 AM MST SATURDAY FOR
COZ031-033-034.

&&

SHORT TERM...RPK
LONG TERM...BARJENBRUCH
AVIATION...RPK

<!doctype html>
<html lang="en">
<head>
  <meta charset="utf-8">
  <meta name="viewport" content="width=device-width, initial-scale=1">
  <title>Service Notice</title>
  <link rel="stylesheet" href="index.css">
</head>
<body>
  <main class="wrap">
    <section class="card" role="status" aria-live="polite">
      <div class="status" id="status">Temporary Notice</div>
      <h1 id="headline">This service is currently unavailable.</h1>
      <p id="message1">
        The site you requested is temporarily down for maintenance or an unexpected outage.
      </p>
      <p id="message2">
        Please try again in a few minutes.
      </p>
      <p class="small" id="detail">
        If you are an administrator, restore upstream service and remove the redirect/fallback rule when normal operations resume.
      </p>
    </section>
  </main>
  <script src="index.js"></script>
</body>
</html>