Alert archive / Colorado / Special Weather Statements in 2016

Special Weather Statement, NWS Denver/Boulder, CO

July 29, 2016Elbert County, Colorado

NWS Denver/Boulder, CO issued this special weather statement at Jul 29, 2016, 12:10 AM MDT for Elbert County, Colorado. It was in force for 65 min. No storm report in the archive falls inside the area while it was in force.

The area

The outline as issued.

The facts

Issued: Jul 29, 2016, 12:10 AM MDT (06:10 UTC)
Expired: Jul 29, 2016, 1:15 AM MDT
In force: 65 min
Issued by: NWS Denver/Boulder, CO

County Elbert County, CO

The radar

The Denver radar (KFTG), 46 km from the middle of the area, began a volume at 06:11 UTC, the scan nearest the moment this went out.

Open the radar archive at this moment

The archived warnings, watches and discussions in force at that minute are drawn over the scan, this one among them.

The nearest sounding before it

Denver, CO (KDEN), launched 00:00Z, 6.2 hours before the alert went out and 120 km from the middle of its area. This is the routine balloon launch nearest before it, the air the forecaster had in hand, not a measurement taken for the alert.

Skew-T log-p

Temperature in red, dew point in green, the mixed-layer parcel dashed.

Hodograph

The wind turning with height, colored by layer: ground to 1 km, 1 to 3 km, 3 to 6 km, 6 to 10 km.

Mixed-layer CAPE: 1611 J/kg
Mixed-layer CIN: -61 J/kg
Mixed-layer LCL: 1861 m above ground
0-6 km bulk shear: 43 kt
0-1 km storm-relative helicity: 28 m²/s²
0-3 km storm-relative helicity: 261 m²/s²
Significant tornado parameter: 0.2
Supercell composite: 8.4

Open this sounding in Storm Lab

The text

As transmitted.

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What forecasters said that day

The local office's own words before this special weather statement went out, as it sent them, from the Iowa Environmental Mesonet's archive of National Weather Service text.

NWS Denver/Boulder, CO wrote its last area forecast discussion before this special weather statement went out at Jul 28, 8:02 PM MDT, 4 hours 8 minutes earlier.

Area forecast discussion, Jul 28, 8:02 PM MDT, 4 hours 8 minutes before

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Denver/Boulder CO
802 PM MDT THU JUL 28 2016

.UPDATE...
Issued at 751 PM MDT Thu Jul 28 2016

Best storms have been over Lincoln county early this evening.
However with unstable airmass over the front range and nw flow
aloft will have to be on the lookout for nocturnal storm
development in the next few hours. Still can't rule out a few svr
storms along the front range and across the palmer divide through
midnight.

&&

.SHORT TERM...(This evening through Friday)
Issued at 328 PM MDT Thu Jul 28 2016

Temperatures have been slow to warm today due to clouds and north
to northeast winds behind a front/outflow boundary. Eventually the
cap is expected to be broken as winds turn more easterly,
temperatures warm in the 80 and a short wave trough moves over
western Nebraska.

Northwest mid level winds around 40 knots above northeast to east
low level winds of 20 north will produce good shear. This combined
with CAPE in the 1000 to 2500 J/kg range will likely produce a few
super cells. Latest HRRR model runs show most of the storms
occurring after 00z. This makes sense due to the slow warming.
Once storms moves off to the east and dissipate, low clouds are
expected to form after midnight.

On Friday...low clouds will slow heating during the morning hours.
Highs will be on the cool side with readings in the lower to mid
80s across northeast Colorado. These cooler temperatures may make
it difficult to break the cap. Will have the highest pops over the
higher terrain where the chances of breaking the cap will be
better. Surface based CAPE climbs to 1000 to 2000 J/kg over the
plains, so any storms that are able to move off the higher terrain
could become severe.

.LONG TERM...(Friday night through Thursday)
Issued at 328 PM MDT Thu Jul 28 2016

Upper level high pressure will be centered over extreme southern
Nevada Friday night with a northwest flow aloft over Colorado.
The NAM...GFS and ECMWF all show an upper level disturbance caught
up in the flow moving across Colorado. Models show quite a bit
more QPF than previous runs. Therefore...have raised pops in the
grids. Soundings show enough moisture...instability and shear for
some stronger storms with hail...gusty winds and heavy rain over
portions of the foothills...Palmer Divide and eastern plains.
Storms should decrease after midnight...but could linger across
far eastern sections of the CWA through the early morning hours.

The upper high begins to shift westward over the Rocky Mountain
Region over the weekend. This should result in warmer and drier
weather across much of north central and northeastern Colorado.
There may be enough moisture combined with daytime heating to
produce a few high based afternoon and evening showers and storms
over higher elevations. GFS and NAM soundings suggest the
potential for a few strong to severe storms across the far
northeast corner of Colorado Saturday.

Next week the upper high is forecasted to move into the southern
plains states...which should allow some monsoonal moisture to
pump into colorado from the south. This pattern should allow for
an increase in shower and storm coverage with a gradual cooling
trend towards the middle of next week. The best chance for
meaningful precipitation should be over the high country. Across
the plains...PW's above an inch combined with limited instability
may result in more clouds than precipitation across the
plains...with surface boundaries needed for more significant
precipitation.

&&

.AVIATION...(For the 00Z TAFS through 00Z Friday evening)
Issued at 751 PM MDT Thu Jul 28 2016

Winds will remain ene however they may transition to more ese by
midnight. There is still some potential for storm through
midnight. Latest data keeps winds sely overnight with denver
Cyclone developing west of DIA. if that occurs stratus may stay to
the west and north late tonight thru Friday morning.

&&

.BOU Watches/Warnings/Advisories...
None.
&&

UPDATE...RPK
SHORT TERM...Meier
LONG TERM...Kalina
AVIATION...RPK

Hazardous weather outlook, Jul 28, 10:47 AM MDT, 13 hours 23 minutes before

HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DENVER/BOULDER CO
1047 AM MDT THU JUL 28 2016

COZ030>051-291700-
JACKSON COUNTY BELOW 9000 FEET-
WEST JACKSON AND WEST GRAND COUNTIES ABOVE 9000 FEET-
GRAND AND SUMMIT COUNTIES BELOW 9000 FEET-
SOUTH AND EAST JACKSON/LARIMER/NORTH AND NORTHEAST GRAND/
NORTHWEST BOULDER COUNTIES ABOVE 9000 FEET-
SOUTH AND SOUTHEAST GRAND/WEST CENTRAL AND SOUTHWEST BOULDER/
GILPIN/CLEAR CREEK/SUMMIT/NORTH AND WEST PARK COUNTIES ABOVE
9000 FEET-LARIMER AND BOULDER COUNTIES BETWEEN 6000 AND 9000 FEET-
JEFFERSON AND WEST DOUGLAS COUNTIES ABOVE 6000 FEET/GILPIN/CLEAR
CREEK/NORTHEAST PARK COUNTIES BELOW 9000 FEET-
CENTRAL AND SOUTHEAST PARK COUNTY-
LARIMER COUNTY BELOW 6000 FEET/NORTHWEST WELD COUNTY-
BOULDER AND JEFFERSON COUNTIES BELOW 6000 FEET/WEST BROOMFIELD
COUNTY-
NORTH DOUGLAS COUNTY BELOW 6000 FEET/DENVER/WEST ADAMS AND
ARAPAHOE COUNTIES/EAST BROOMFIELD COUNTY-
ELBERT/CENTRAL AND EAST DOUGLAS COUNTIES ABOVE 6000 FEET-
NORTHEAST WELD COUNTY-CENTRAL AND SOUTH WELD COUNTY-MORGAN COUNTY-
CENTRAL AND EAST ADAMS AND ARAPAHOE COUNTIES-
NORTH AND NORTHEAST ELBERT COUNTY BELOW 6000 FEET/NORTH LINCOLN
COUNTY-
SOUTHEAST ELBERT COUNTY BELOW 6000 FEET/SOUTH LINCOLN COUNTY-
LOGAN COUNTY-WASHINGTON COUNTY-SEDGWICK COUNTY-PHILLIPS COUNTY-
1047 AM MDT THU JUL 28 2016

THIS HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK IS FOR NORTHEAST AND NORTH CENTRAL
COLORADO.

.DAY ONE...TODAY AND TONIGHT

SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ARE LIKELY ON THE PLAINS THIS AFTERNOON AND
EVENING. ALONG THE FRONT RANGE...ISOLATED SEVERE WILL BE POSSIBLE.
THE PRIMARY THREAT TODAY IS VERY LARGE HAIL...WITH UP TO BASEBALL
SIZE HAIL POSSIBLE WITH THE STRONGEST STORMS. DAMAGING WIND GUSTS
UP TO 80 MPH AND AN ISOLATED TORNADO OR TWO ARE ALSO POSSIBLE.

INCREASING MOISTURE OVER THE PLAINS ALONG WITH FAVORABLE WIND
SHEAR WILL CREATE AN ABOVE AVERAGE THREAT OF SEVERE STORMS TODAY.
BE PREPARED FOR POSSIBLE HAZARDOUS WEATHER AND TAKE SHELTER IF A
STORM APPROACHES OR A WARNING IS ISSUED.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...FRIDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY

FRIDAY WILL BE A LITTLE COOLER WITH A FEW STRONG STORMS POSSIBLE,
MOST LIKELY OVER THE PALMER DIVIDE. LOCALLY HEAVY RAIN WILL BE
POSSIBLE WITH SOME OF THE STORMS.

THE WEEKEND WILL BE WARMER AND DRIER OVER THE PLAINS WHILE
AFTERNOON STORMS INCREASE OVER THE HIGH TERRAIN. NEXT WEEK WILL
SEE AFTERNOON STORMS CONTINUE OVER THE MOUNTAINS ALONG WITH
ISOLATED SHOWERS ON THE PLAINS. LOCALLY HEAVY RAIN WILL BE
POSSIBLE FROM THE STRONGEST STORMS THAT DEVELOP EACH AFTERNOON AND
EVENING.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

SPOTTER ACTIVATION IS LIKELY AFTER 2 PM.

In the hours before

Local storm report, Jul 28, 9:17 PM MDT, 2 hours 53 minutes before

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT...CORRECTED
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DENVER CO
917 PM MDT THU JUL 28 2016

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

0907 PM     HAIL             GOLDEN                  39.74N 105.21W
07/28/2016  M1.00 INCH       JEFFERSON          CO   PUBLIC

0741 PM     HAIL             21 N ORDWAY             38.52N 103.76W
07/28/2016  M1.00 INCH       LINCOLN            CO   TRAINED SPOTTER

&&

NGUSACK

Local storm report, Jul 28, 9:29 PM MDT, 2 hours 41 minutes before

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT...CORRECTED
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DENVER CO
929 PM MDT THU JUL 28 2016

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

0907 PM     HAIL             GOLDEN                  39.74N 105.21W
07/28/2016  M1.00 INCH       JEFFERSON          CO   PUBLIC

0907 PM     HAIL             2 S GOLDEN              39.71N 105.21W
07/28/2016  M1.50 INCH       JEFFERSON          CO   TRAINED SPOTTER

0907 PM     HAIL             LAKEWOOD                39.70N 105.11W
07/28/2016  M1.25 INCH       JEFFERSON          CO   TRAINED SPOTTER

0741 PM     HAIL             21 N ORDWAY             38.52N 103.76W
07/28/2016  M1.00 INCH       LINCOLN            CO   TRAINED SPOTTER

&&

NGUSACK

Local storm report, Jul 28, 9:45 PM MDT, 2 hours 25 minutes before

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT...CORRECTED
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DENVER CO
945 PM MDT THU JUL 28 2016

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

0930 PM     HAIL             1 S LAKEWOOD            39.68N 105.11W
07/28/2016  M1.50 INCH       JEFFERSON          CO   TRAINED SPOTTER

0925 PM     HAIL             LAKEWOOD                39.70N 105.11W
07/28/2016  M1.25 INCH       JEFFERSON          CO   TRAINED SPOTTER

0907 PM     HAIL             GOLDEN                  39.74N 105.21W
07/28/2016  M1.00 INCH       JEFFERSON          CO   PUBLIC

0907 PM     HAIL             2 S GOLDEN              39.71N 105.21W
07/28/2016  M1.50 INCH       JEFFERSON          CO   TRAINED SPOTTER

0741 PM     HAIL             21 N ORDWAY             38.52N 103.76W
07/28/2016  M1.00 INCH       LINCOLN            CO   TRAINED SPOTTER

&&

NGUSACK

Local storm report, Jul 28, 10:01 PM MDT, 2 hours 9 minutes before

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT...CORRECTED
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DENVER CO
1001 PM MDT THU JUL 28 2016

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

0941 PM     HAIL             LITTLETON               39.59N 105.01W
07/28/2016  E1.25 INCH       ARAPAHOE           CO   PUBLIC

0930 PM     HAIL             1 S LAKEWOOD            39.68N 105.11W
07/28/2016  M1.50 INCH       JEFFERSON          CO   TRAINED SPOTTER

0925 PM     HAIL             LAKEWOOD                39.70N 105.11W
07/28/2016  M1.25 INCH       JEFFERSON          CO   TRAINED SPOTTER

0907 PM     HAIL             GOLDEN                  39.74N 105.21W
07/28/2016  M1.00 INCH       JEFFERSON          CO   PUBLIC

0907 PM     HAIL             2 S GOLDEN              39.71N 105.21W
07/28/2016  M1.50 INCH       JEFFERSON          CO   TRAINED SPOTTER

0741 PM     HAIL             21 N ORDWAY             38.52N 103.76W
07/28/2016  M1.00 INCH       LINCOLN            CO   TRAINED SPOTTER

&&

NGUSACK

Local storm report, Jul 28, 10:29 PM MDT, 1 hour 41 minutes before

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Special weather statement, Jul 29, 12:10 AM MDT, 0 minutes before

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The office that day

Everything else NWS Denver/Boulder, CO issued on the same UTC day.

Issued	Product	Office	Counties	Lasted
Jul 28, 6:00 PM MDT	Special Weather Statement	BOU	Weld	30 min
Jul 28, 6:49 PM MDT	Severe Thunderstorm Warning	BOU	Elbert, Lincoln	41 min
Jul 28, 7:03 PM MDT	Severe Thunderstorm Warning	BOU	Lincoln	42 min
Jul 28, 7:24 PM MDT	Tornado Warning	BOU	Lincoln	36 min
Jul 28, 8:26 PM MDT	Severe Thunderstorm Warning	BOU	Lincoln	34 min
Jul 28, 8:51 PM MDT	Special Weather Statement	BOU	Jefferson	24 min
Jul 28, 9:06 PM MDT	Severe Thunderstorm Warning	BOU	Jefferson	24 min
Jul 28, 9:23 PM MDT	Severe Thunderstorm Warning	BOU	Elbert	52 min
Jul 28, 9:30 PM MDT	Severe Thunderstorm Warning	BOU	Arapahoe, Denver, Douglas, Jefferson	30 min
Jul 28, 10:06 PM MDT	Severe Thunderstorm Warning	BOU	Elbert, Lincoln	39 min
Jul 29, 4:35 PM MDT	Severe Thunderstorm Warning	BOU	Weld	40 min
Jul 29, 5:12 PM MDT	Severe Thunderstorm Warning	BOU	Larimer, Weld	48 min
Jul 29, 5:17 PM MDT	Special Weather Statement	BOU	Elbert	28 min
Jul 29, 5:57 PM MDT	Severe Thunderstorm Warning	BOU	Weld	63 min

Nearby

Special Weather Statements in Colorado, 2016 Every special weather statement in 2016

Sources

The product and its follow-ups from the Iowa Environmental Mesonet's archive of National Weather Service and Storm Prediction Center text; the sounding from the Mesonet's radiosonde archive; radar from the NEXRAD Level II archive.