Special Weather Statement, NWS Denver/Boulder, CO

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Denver/Boulder CO
249 PM MDT MON JUL 25 2016

.SHORT TERM...(This afternoon through Tuesday)
Issued at 249 PM MDT Mon Jul 25 2016

Upper level ridge centered near the four corner will drift west
the next 24 hours. This will cause flow aloft to turn from west to
northwest on Tuesday. Precipitable water values are up to a
quarter inch drier today. This will help favor gusty outflow winds
as the main threat with the storms. Best chance for storms will be
south of I-70 where moisture will be a little better. On the
eastern plains where CAPE and shear is better, can't rule out a
severe thunderstorm or two with large hail and winds to 70 mph.

For Tuesday, a weak wave embedded in the flow aloft along with
slightly more moisture will bring a better chance for
thunderstorms. Heavy rain and gusty outflow winds will be the main
threat with the storms. A severe storm or two will be possible
over far eastern Colorado where the best shear and instability
will reside. Temperatures will be slightly warmer with highs
climbing above 90 degrees over much of northeast Colorado.

.LONG TERM...(Tuesday night through Sunday)
Issued at 249 PM MDT Mon Jul 25 2016

An upper trough and surface front passing southeast across the
area Tuesday night will help push scattered thunderstorms east
into Kansas through midnight, with gusty outflow winds, small
hail and brief moderate to heavy rainfall the main impacts. A
stronger storm may be possible with strong winds and large hail
east of a line from Sterling to Akron. Cooler air behind the
trough and clearing skies will allow for minimum temperatures to
cool a degree or two cooler than tonight's readings.

The upper ridge will build over the southeastern Great Basin
Wednesday and remain there through the rest of the week putting
northwest flow aloft over Colorado. This will push subtropical
moisture southeast and thereby decreasing the chances for storms
over the high terrain to a slight chance. Shortwaves in the flow
aloft coming out of Canada will send a couple fronts into the
northeastern Colorado plains, though different models have
different solutions for the timing and extent. Overall, expect
some cooling over the northeastern corner of the state with an
increase in moisture as it wraps in from the Great Plains. The
cold frontal boundary will provide a focus for isolated to
scattered storms to form each afternoon and evening over the
northeastern plains, with a slight chance for strong to severe
storms near the NE/KS state borders. The forecast area further
west will have little to no chance of showers...although this may
depend on how far west the frontal boundary moves west.
Temperatures Thursday and Friday will be back in the mid to upper
80s for the plains.

The upper ridge will begin pushing east across the state on
Saturday then develop southwesterly flow aloft for Sunday and
Monday as a trough drops into the Pacific Northwest. This will
allow for warming temperatures and a return of subtropical
moisture. Look for increasing chances for storms in the mountains
with a slight chance over the plains.

&&

.AVIATION...(For the 18Z TAFS through 18Z Tuesday afternoon)
Issued at 249 PM MDT Mon Jul 25 2016

There will be a slight chance for thunderstorms at the Denver
airports through 03z. Gusty outflow winds to 40 knots and brief
heavy rain will be the main threats from the storms. Outflow winds
from the thunderstorms may produce a wind shift or two through
03z. Southerly winds will prevail overnight and Tuesday morning.
There will be a better chance for thunderstorms Tuesday
afternoon...after 21z.

&&

.BOU Watches/Warnings/Advisories...
None.
&&

SHORT TERM...Meier
LONG TERM...Kriederman
AVIATION...Meier

HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DENVER/BOULDER CO
1111 AM MDT MON JUL 25 2016

COZ030>051-261715-
JACKSON COUNTY BELOW 9000 FEET-
WEST JACKSON AND WEST GRAND COUNTIES ABOVE 9000 FEET-
GRAND AND SUMMIT COUNTIES BELOW 9000 FEET-
SOUTH AND EAST JACKSON/LARIMER/NORTH AND NORTHEAST GRAND/
NORTHWEST BOULDER COUNTIES ABOVE 9000 FEET-
SOUTH AND SOUTHEAST GRAND/WEST CENTRAL AND SOUTHWEST BOULDER/
GILPIN/CLEAR CREEK/SUMMIT/NORTH AND WEST PARK COUNTIES ABOVE
9000 FEET-LARIMER AND BOULDER COUNTIES BETWEEN 6000 AND 9000 FEET-
JEFFERSON AND WEST DOUGLAS COUNTIES ABOVE 6000 FEET/GILPIN/CLEAR
CREEK/NORTHEAST PARK COUNTIES BELOW 9000 FEET-
CENTRAL AND SOUTHEAST PARK COUNTY-
LARIMER COUNTY BELOW 6000 FEET/NORTHWEST WELD COUNTY-
BOULDER AND JEFFERSON COUNTIES BELOW 6000 FEET/WEST BROOMFIELD
COUNTY-
NORTH DOUGLAS COUNTY BELOW 6000 FEET/DENVER/WEST ADAMS AND
ARAPAHOE COUNTIES/EAST BROOMFIELD COUNTY-
ELBERT/CENTRAL AND EAST DOUGLAS COUNTIES ABOVE 6000 FEET-
NORTHEAST WELD COUNTY-CENTRAL AND SOUTH WELD COUNTY-MORGAN COUNTY-
CENTRAL AND EAST ADAMS AND ARAPAHOE COUNTIES-
NORTH AND NORTHEAST ELBERT COUNTY BELOW 6000 FEET/NORTH LINCOLN
COUNTY-
SOUTHEAST ELBERT COUNTY BELOW 6000 FEET/SOUTH LINCOLN COUNTY-
LOGAN COUNTY-WASHINGTON COUNTY-SEDGWICK COUNTY-PHILLIPS COUNTY-
1111 AM MDT MON JUL 25 2016

THIS HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK IS FOR NORTHEAST AND NORTH CENTRAL
COLORADO.

.DAY ONE...TODAY AND TONIGHT

THERE IS ENOUGH MOISTURE AND INSTABILITY FOR SCATTERED
THUNDERSTORMS OVER THE HIGH COUNTRY...AND ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS
ON THE PLAINS THIS AFTERNOON AND EVENING. GUSTY WINDS...LOCALLY
HEAVY RAIN AND LIGHTNING CAN BE EXPECTED WITH THE STORMS.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...TUESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY

THERE WILL CONTINUE TO BE ABOVE AVERAGE TEMPERATURES AND SCATTERED
AFTERNOON AND EVENING THUNDERSTORMS ON TUESDAY WITH THE MAIN
IMPACTS BEING GUSTY OUTFLOW WINDS...SMALL HAIL...HEAVY RAIN AND
LIGHTNING.

TEMPERATURES WILL DECREASE WEDNESDAY THROUGH FRIDAY AS
A COUPLE FRONTS PUSH IN FROM THE NORTH. STORM ACTIVITY WILL
DECREASE IN THE MOUNTAINS WHILE INCREASING OVER THE FAR
NORTHEASTERN PLAINS DURING THIS TIME WITH A FEW STRONG TO SEVERE
STORMS POSSIBLE EACH EVENING.

THIS WEEKEND WILL BECOME WARMER AND DRIER OVER THE PLAINS WHILE
AFTERNOON STORMS INCREASE OVER THE HIGH TERRAIN.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

SPOTTER ACTIVATION IS NOT EXPECTED TODAY OR TONIGHT.

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SPECIAL WEATHER STATEMENT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DENVER CO
314 PM MDT MON JUL 25 2016

COZ041-045>047-252200-
ELBERT/CENTRAL AND EAST DOUGLAS COUNTIES ABOVE 6000 FEET CO-
CENTRAL AND EAST ADAMS AND ARAPAHOE COUNTIES CO-
SOUTHEAST ELBERT COUNTY BELOW 6000 FEET/SOUTH LINCOLN COUNTY CO-
NORTH AND NORTHEAST ELBERT COUNTY BELOW 6000 FEET/NORTH LINCOLN
COUNTY CO-
314 PM MDT MON JUL 25 2016

...SIGNIFICANT WEATHER ADVISORY FOR EASTERN ARAPAHOE...NORTHEASTERN
ELBERT AND NORTH CENTRAL LINCOLN COUNTIES UNTIL 400 PM MDT...

AT 309 PM MDT...DOPPLER RADAR WAS TRACKING THUNDERSTORMS DEVELOPING
ON AN OUTFLOW WIND BOUNDARY MOVING EAST ACROSS CENTRAL ELBERT
COUNTY. THE STRONGEST STORM WAS LOCATED 6 MILES SOUTHWEST OF AGATE
OR 19 MILES WEST OF LIMON. MOVEMENT OF THESE STORMS WAS EAST AT 15
MPH.

HALF INCH HAIL AND WIND GUSTS IN EXCESS OF 45 MPH WILL BE POSSIBLE
WITH THESE STORMS.

LOCATIONS IMPACTED INCLUDE...
LIMON...SIMLA...DEER TRAIL...COTTONWOOD VALLEY...AGATE AND MATHESON.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

PREPARE FOR SUDDEN STRONG AND GUSTY WINDS. SECURE LOOSE OBJECTS AND
MOVE TO A SAFE SHELTER INSIDE A BUILDING OR VEHICLE.

HEAVY RAINFALL MAY OCCUR WITH THESE STORMS...AND MAY LEAD TO
LOCALIZED FLOODING. DO NOT DRIVE YOUR VEHICLE THROUGH FLOODED
ROADWAYS.

FREQUENT CLOUD TO GROUND LIGHTNING IS OCCURRING WITH THESE STORMS.
LIGHTNING CAN STRIKE 10 MILES AWAY FROM A THUNDERSTORM. SEEK A SAFE
SHELTER INSIDE A BUILDING OR VEHICLE. REMEMBER...IF YOU CAN HEAR
THUNDER...YOU ARE CLOSE ENOUGH TO BE STRUCK BY LIGHTNING.

THESE STORMS MAY INTENSIFY...SO BE CERTAIN TO MONITOR LOCAL RADIO
STATIONS AND AVAILABLE TELEVISION STATIONS FOR ADDITIONAL INFORMATION
AND POSSIBLE WARNINGS FROM THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE.

&&

LAT...LON 3908 10405 3913 10406 3913 10443 3932 10418
      3952 10432 3980 10374 3973 10371 3957 10371
      3956 10362 3943 10355 3902 10358
TIME...MOT...LOC 2109Z 275DEG 15KT 3953 10416 3940 10404 3926 10406
3914 10425

BAKER

SPECIAL WEATHER STATEMENT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DENVER CO
355 PM MDT MON JUL 25 2016

COZ041-045>047-049-252230-
ELBERT/CENTRAL AND EAST DOUGLAS COUNTIES ABOVE 6000 FEET CO-
CENTRAL AND EAST ADAMS AND ARAPAHOE COUNTIES CO-WASHINGTON COUNTY CO-
SOUTHEAST ELBERT COUNTY BELOW 6000 FEET/SOUTH LINCOLN COUNTY CO-
NORTH AND NORTHEAST ELBERT COUNTY BELOW 6000 FEET/NORTH LINCOLN
COUNTY CO-
355 PM MDT MON JUL 25 2016

...SIGNIFICANT WEATHER ADVISORY FOR SOUTHWESTERN WASHINGTON...EASTERN
ARAPAHOE...ELBERT...SOUTHEASTERN ADAMS AND CENTRAL LINCOLN COUNTIES
UNTIL 430 PM MDT...

AT 348 PM MDT...DOPPLER RADAR WAS TRACKING A LINE OF THUNDERSTORMS
ON AN OUTFLOW BOUNDARY EXTENDING FROM 3 MILES EAST OF AGATE TO NEAR
MATHESON TO NEAR CALHAN ACROSS EAST CENTRAL AND SOUTHEAST
ELBERT COUNTY. THE STRONGEST STORM WAS 22 MILES SOUTHWEST OF LIMON.
MOVEMENT OF THESE STORMS WAS EAST AT 15 MPH.

WINDS IN EXCESS OF 40 MPH WILL BE POSSIBLE WITH THESE STORMS.

LOCATIONS IMPACTED INCLUDE...
LIMON...HUGO...SIMLA...DEER TRAIL...GENOA...WOODLIN SCHOOL...
STRASBURG...KUTCH...AGATE...MATHESON...SHAMROCK...
COTTONWOOD VALLEY...BYERS...PUNKIN CENTER...LINDON AND LAST CHANCE.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

PREPARE FOR SUDDEN GUSTY WINDS RADIATING OUT IN ALL DIRECTIONS FROM
THESE STORMS. SECURE LOOSE OBJECTS AND MOVE TO A SAFE SHELTER INSIDE
A BUILDING OR VEHICLE.

HEAVY RAINFALL MAY OCCUR WITH STORMS MOVING ACROSS SOUTHEAST ELBERT
AND SOUTHWEST LINCOLN COUNTIES...AND MAY LEAD TO LOCALIZED FLOODING.
DO NOT DRIVE YOUR VEHICLE THROUGH FLOODED ROADWAYS.

FREQUENT CLOUD TO GROUND LIGHTNING IS OCCURRING WITH THESE STORMS.
LIGHTNING CAN STRIKE 10 MILES AWAY FROM A THUNDERSTORM. SEEK A SAFE
SHELTER INSIDE A BUILDING OR VEHICLE.

THESE STORMS MAY INTENSIFY...SO BE CERTAIN TO MONITOR LOCAL RADIO
STATIONS AND AVAILABLE TELEVISION STATIONS FOR ADDITIONAL INFORMATION
AND POSSIBLE WARNINGS FROM THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE.

&&

LAT...LON 3869 10405 3913 10405 3913 10445 3924 10434
      3979 10437 3991 10371 3976 10335 3913 10332
      3861 10387
TIME...MOT...LOC 2148Z 290DEG 11KT 3947 10388 3916 10402 3901 10434

BAKER