Severe Thunderstorm Warning 36, NWS Denver/Boulder, CO

366 
WWUS55 KBOU 010216
SVSBOU

SEVERE WEATHER STATEMENT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DENVER CO
816 PM MDT TUE MAY 31 2016

COC039-073-010226-
/O.CAN.KBOU.SV.W.0036.000000T0000Z-160601T0230Z/
ELBERT CO-LINCOLN CO-
816 PM MDT TUE MAY 31 2016

...THE SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WARNING FOR SOUTH CENTRAL ELBERT AND
SOUTHWESTERN LINCOLN COUNTIES IS CANCELLED...
                
THE STORM WHICH PROMPTED THE WARNING HAS WEAKENED BELOW SEVERE
LIMITS...AND NO LONGER POSES AN IMMEDIATE THREAT TO LIFE OR PROPERTY.
THEREFORE THE WARNING HAS BEEN CANCELLED.  HOWEVER HAIL UP TO ONE-
HALF INCH IN DIAMETER IS STILL POSSIBLE WITH THIS THUNDERSTORM.

LAT...LON 3876 10404 3878 10405 3889 10406 3892 10405
      3884 10390
TIME...MOT...LOC 0215Z 314DEG 13KT 3882 10400 

$$

BAKER

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Denver/Boulder CO
705 PM MDT TUE MAY 31 2016

.UPDATE...
Issued at 705 PM MDT Tue May 31 2016

Besides some isolated in-cloud lightning activity that remains
over Larimer County at this hour, most thunder activity remains
south and east of Denver this evening. There is a weak disturbance
showing up in water vapor over the northern state border. Recent
hi-res model runs have been showing a wave of activity pushing
south from that area into the Denver area later this evening,
however there is no real good radar echoes being produced, so am
having a hard time believing those runs. Am seeing observations
over southern Wyoming and Nebraska showing a northerly push, which
will likely help reinforce the upslope flow later tonight
resulting in lowering clouds.

&&

.SHORT TERM...(This evening through Wednesday)
Issued at 345 PM MDT Tue May 31 2016

Scattered showers have developed over the foothills with a few
thunderstorms moving out over the Palmer Divide. Showers to the
north have not been strong enough to reach electrification up to
this point. We should continue to see a couple more hours of
shower development into the early evening. On the plains, stratus
clouds helped keep temperatures too cool to support deep
convection. The evening showers should produce little more than
brief rain and small hail.

Low clouds are expected re-develop overnight as the moist airmass
remains in place.

Very similar conditions are expected tomorrow, except temperatures
will be 5 to 10 degrees warmer. The airmass may have a little bit
more CAPE, but an upper level ridge is going to begin developing,
adding some subsidence into the mix. Will keep the expected
scattered showers mainly over the mountains and adjacent plains.

.LONG TERM...(Wednesday night through Tuesday)
Issued at 345 PM MDT Tue May 31 2016

Very weak westerly flow aloft is progged for the CWA Wednesday
night and Thursday. A weak upper trough moves eastward to our
north Thursday night through Friday night and the flow aloft is
still weak but north or northwesterly. All five periods, and well
into the later days, an upper ridge stays parked over the Desert
Southwest/Great Basin area. The QG Omega fields have weak downward
synoptic scale energy progged for the forecast area all five
periods. The boundary layer flow is dominated by southerly wind
directions Wednesday night into Thursday night. The afore
mentioned upper trough brings a weak front early Friday morning.
East and northeasterlies are progged Friday afternoon and night.
There is some moisture around Wednesday evening...then cross
sections show drying overnight. In fact, Thursday through Friday
night remain pretty dry for the CWA. There is some CAPE over the
mountains and foothills Wednesday evening. There is pretty decent
CAPE over the southern and eastern CWA late day Thursday. There is
little CAPE around Friday. There is some minor measurable
precipitation over the western half of the CWA Wednesday evening,
with only a tad over the high country late day Thursday, and even
less late day Friday. So pops will be 0-20%s during the later day
periods mostly Wednesday and Thursday. For temperatures, Thursday's
highs are 3-6 C warmer then Wednesday's. Friday's highs are 0-2 C
warmer than Thursday's. For the later days, Saturday through
Tuesday, models keep the upper ridge west of Colorado Saturday and
Sunday, hen push it east Sunday night. On Monday, the upper ridge
axis is over Colorado...then over the CWA by afternoon. There
could be weak upper troughiness over the state on Wednesday.
Moisture remains sparse through much of the later days. Temperatures
should be a bit above seasonal normals.

&&

.AVIATION...(For the 18Z TAFS through 18Z Wednesday afternoon)
Issued at 705 PM MDT Tue May 31 2016

The threat of light rain showers and possibly a thunderstorm will
persist for a few more hours, with thunder only expected south and
east of KDEN over the Palmer Divide. Overnight, stratus clouds
are expected to re-develop and possibly bring ceilings down to
low MVFR heights for a few hours around sunrise. Winds will have
an easterly to southeasterly tendency overnight.

&&

.BOU Watches/Warnings/Advisories...
None.
&&

UPDATE...Kriederman
SHORT TERM...Dankers
LONG TERM...RJK
AVIATION...Kriederman

HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DENVER/BOULDER CO
1115 AM MDT TUE MAY 31 2016

COZ030>051-011715-
JACKSON COUNTY BELOW 9000 FEET-
WEST JACKSON AND WEST GRAND COUNTIES ABOVE 9000 FEET-
GRAND AND SUMMIT COUNTIES BELOW 9000 FEET-
SOUTH AND EAST JACKSON/LARIMER/NORTH AND NORTHEAST GRAND/
NORTHWEST BOULDER COUNTIES ABOVE 9000 FEET-
SOUTH AND SOUTHEAST GRAND/WEST CENTRAL AND SOUTHWEST BOULDER/
GILPIN/CLEAR CREEK/SUMMIT/NORTH AND WEST PARK COUNTIES ABOVE
9000 FEET-LARIMER AND BOULDER COUNTIES BETWEEN 6000 AND 9000 FEET-
JEFFERSON AND WEST DOUGLAS COUNTIES ABOVE 6000 FEET/GILPIN/CLEAR
CREEK/NORTHEAST PARK COUNTIES BELOW 9000 FEET-
CENTRAL AND SOUTHEAST PARK COUNTY-
LARIMER COUNTY BELOW 6000 FEET/NORTHWEST WELD COUNTY-
BOULDER AND JEFFERSON COUNTIES BELOW 6000 FEET/WEST BROOMFIELD
COUNTY-
NORTH DOUGLAS COUNTY BELOW 6000 FEET/DENVER/WEST ADAMS AND
ARAPAHOE COUNTIES/EAST BROOMFIELD COUNTY-
ELBERT/CENTRAL AND EAST DOUGLAS COUNTIES ABOVE 6000 FEET-
NORTHEAST WELD COUNTY-CENTRAL AND SOUTH WELD COUNTY-MORGAN COUNTY-
CENTRAL AND EAST ADAMS AND ARAPAHOE COUNTIES-
NORTH AND NORTHEAST ELBERT COUNTY BELOW 6000 FEET/NORTH LINCOLN
COUNTY-
SOUTHEAST ELBERT COUNTY BELOW 6000 FEET/SOUTH LINCOLN COUNTY-
LOGAN COUNTY-WASHINGTON COUNTY-SEDGWICK COUNTY-PHILLIPS COUNTY-
1115 AM MDT TUE MAY 31 2016

THIS HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK IS FOR NORTHEAST AND NORTH CENTRAL
COLORADO.

.DAY ONE...TODAY AND TONIGHT

SCATTERED RAIN SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS WILL BE POSSIBLE LATE
THIS AFTERNOON...MOST LIKELY ON THE PALMER DIVIDE. THE STRONGER
STORMS WILL BE CAPABLE OF PRODUCING BRIEF HEAVY RAIN AND SOME
HAIL. AN ISOLATED SEVERE STORM IS POSSIBLE IF SUFFICIENT DAYTIME
HEATING OCCURS. TEMPERATURES WILL BE COOLER TODAY AFTER A COLD
FRONT MOVED OVER THE REGION LAST NIGHT. THE COOLER TEMPERATURES...
ESPECIALLY OVER THE NORTHERN PLAINS WILL KEEP THE AIRMASS TOO
STABLE FOR STRONG THUNDERSTORMS TO DEVELOP.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...WEDNESDAY THROUGH MONDAY

THERE WILL BE A CHANCE OF LATE DAY SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS IN
THE MOUNTIANS ON WEDNESDAY...THEN CHANCES WILL DECREASE FROM
THURSDAY ONWARD INTO NEXT WEEK FOR THE HIGH COUNTRY. IT LOOKS DRY
FOR THE PLAINS WEDNESDAY THROUGH NEXT MONDAY. TEMPERATURES WILL
WARM-UP TO SEASONAL NUMERALS OR TO ABOVE NORMAL READINGS FROM
THURSDAY INTO NEXT WEEK.

SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

SPOTTER ACTIVATION IS NOT ANTICIPATED TODAY OR TONIGHT.

SPECIAL WEATHER STATEMENT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DENVER CO
351 PM MDT TUE MAY 31 2016

COZ040-041-312215-
ELBERT/CENTRAL AND EAST DOUGLAS COUNTIES ABOVE 6000 FEET CO-
NORTH DOUGLAS COUNTY BELOW 6000 FEET/DENVER/WEST ADAMS AND ARAPAHOE
COUNTIES/EAST BROOMFIELD COUNTY CO-
351 PM MDT TUE MAY 31 2016

...SIGNIFICANT WEATHER ADVISORY FOR NORTHEASTERN DOUGLAS COUNTY UNTIL
415 PM MDT...

AT 350 PM MDT...DOPPLER RADAR WAS TRACKING A STRONG THUNDERSTORM NEAR
PARKER...OR 15 MILES SOUTHEAST OF DENVER...MOVING EAST AT 20 MPH.

DIME SIZE HAIL AND WINDS IN EXCESS OF 40 MPH WILL BE POSSIBLE WITH
THIS STORM. TRAINED SPOTTERS REPORTED DIME SIZED HAIL IN LONE TREE
WITH THIS STORM.

LOCATIONS IMPACTED INCLUDE...
PARKER...LONE TREE AND SURREY RIDGE.

LAT...LON 3950 10490 3955 10490 3957 10466 3950 10466
TIME...MOT...LOC 2150Z 264DEG 15KT 3954 10481

ENTREKIN

SPECIAL WEATHER STATEMENT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DENVER CO
401 PM MDT TUE MAY 31 2016

COZ041-312230-
ELBERT/CENTRAL AND EAST DOUGLAS COUNTIES ABOVE 6000 FEET CO-
401 PM MDT TUE MAY 31 2016

...SIGNIFICANT WEATHER ADVISORY FOR NORTHWESTERN ELBERT COUNTY UNTIL
430 PM MDT...

AT 400 PM MDT...DOPPLER RADAR WAS TRACKING A STRONG THUNDERSTORM 9
MILES NORTHEAST OF PONDEROSA PARK...OR 26 MILES SOUTHEAST OF
DENVER... MOVING EAST AT 5 MPH.

DIME SIZE HAIL...HEAVY RAIN...AND WINDS IN EXCESS OF 40 MPH WILL BE
POSSIBLE WITH THIS STORM.

THIS STORM WILL REMAIN OVER MAINLY RURAL AREAS OF NORTHWESTERN ELBERT
COUNTY.

LAT...LON 3947 10461 3954 10461 3956 10448 3956 10447
      3953 10446 3954 10445 3953 10444 3954 10442
      3950 10440 3950 10436 3947 10437
TIME...MOT...LOC 2200Z 275DEG 6KT 3952 10455

ENTREKIN

SPECIAL WEATHER STATEMENT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DENVER CO
609 PM MDT TUE MAY 31 2016

COZ045-010045-
CENTRAL AND EAST ADAMS AND ARAPAHOE COUNTIES CO-
609 PM MDT TUE MAY 31 2016

...SIGNIFICANT WEATHER ADVISORY FOR CENTRAL ARAPAHOE COUNTY UNTIL 645
PM MDT...

AT 609 PM MDT...DOPPLER RADAR WAS TRACKING A STRONG THUNDERSTORM 10
MILES SOUTHWEST OF STRASBURG...OR 31 MILES EAST OF DENVER...MOVING
SOUTHEAST AT 20 MPH.

DIME SIZE HAIL AND WINDS IN EXCESS OF 40 MPH WILL BE POSSIBLE WITH
THIS STORM.

LOCATIONS IMPACTED INCLUDE...
STRASBURG.

LAT...LON 3973 10435 3960 10416 3956 10423 3956 10447
TIME...MOT...LOC 0009Z 306DEG 15KT 3960 10439

ENTREKIN