Severe Thunderstorm Warning 207, NWS Denver/Boulder, CO

295 
WWUS55 KBOU 280203
SVSBOU

SEVERE WEATHER STATEMENT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DENVER CO
803 PM MDT WED JUL 27 2016

COC115-280212-
/O.CAN.KBOU.SV.W.0207.000000T0000Z-160728T0215Z/
SEDGWICK CO-
803 PM MDT WED JUL 27 2016

...THE SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WARNING FOR WESTERN SEDGWICK COUNTY IS
CANCELLED...
                
THE STORM WHICH PROMPTED THE WARNING HAS WEAKENED BELOW SEVERE
LIMITS...AND NO LONGER POSES AN IMMEDIATE THREAT TO LIFE OR PROPERTY.
THEREFORE THE WARNING HAS BEEN CANCELLED.  HOWEVER HEAVY RAIN AND
SMALL HAIL IS STILL POSSIBLE WITH THIS THUNDERSTORM.

LAT...LON 4077 10265 4100 10265 4093 10228 4076 10223
TIME...MOT...LOC 0200Z 285DEG 36KT 4090 10243 

$$

ENTREKIN

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Denver/Boulder CO
710 PM MDT WED JUL 27 2016

.UPDATE...
Issued at 657 PM MDT Wed Jul 27 2016

Strong to severe isolated storms tracking Southeast across the
plains early this evening. These storms have sent outflow back
west towards Denver with increasing NE-E winds up to 30kt. The RAP
develops activity later this evening over the foothills while HRRR
keeps the additional development East and South of Denver later
tonight. Certainly some potential for storms further West later
this evening as there has been some increase in dewpoints behind
the outflow. For now will at least keep in low pops in case stuff
develops.

&&

.SHORT TERM...(This evening through Thursday)
Issued at 254 PM MDT Wed Jul 27 2016

An upper level ridge over the Great Basin will sink south over
the next 24 hours as an short wave trough moves across the
Northern Plains. This will increase the northwest flow aloft over
eastern Colorado Thursday.

For the rest of today and tonight, convergence along a weak
boundary over Lincoln and Washington counties may help convection
break the cap. Plan on having the highest pops here. An isolated
severe storm or two is possible due to CAPE reaching 800 to 1600
J/kg. Farther west, a cap will limit most if not all convection.
Will keep 10-20 pops in for the Front Range and Eastern Plains.
For the mountains, drier air should prevent thunderstorm
development.

On Thursday, airmass temperatures will not change much which will
result in highs reaching the upper 80s to lower 90s. East to
northeast winds increase during the afternoon and evening. This
will help transport moisture westward to the foothills. The short
wave trough passing to the northeast of Colorado is expected to
help trigger thunderstorms over northeast Colorado. The increased
flow aloft will produce good shear Thursday. This shear combined
with CAPE climbing to 1500 to 3000 J/kg will allow some storms to
become severe with large hail and damaging winds.

.LONG TERM...(Thursday night through Wednesday)
Issued at 254 PM MDT Wed Jul 27 2016

Thursday night upper level high pressure will be centered over
extreme southwestern Utah with a northwest flow aloft over Colorado.
A 40kt+ jet max and associated upper level disturbance will move
over the far northeastern Corner of Colorado. With capes over 1500
j/kg...quite a bit of shear and lift from the jet...severe storms
are expected over the northeastern quarter of Colorado. Latest
SPC Day 2 outlook has this area in a slight to enhanced risk of
severe storms. In addition...with PW's over 1.25 inches heavy rain
will also be possible with the storms.

Models show an outflow boundary from the overnight convection
pushing up against the foothills which may initiate some
thunderstorms activity across the foothills...Urban Corridor and
Palmer Divide...some of which could be strong. In
addition...cooler and moist air behind the boundary could result
in low clouds across the Plains...including portions of the Front
Range Urban Corridor after midnight. The increased moisture and
cloud cover should keep high temperatures on Friday below 90 on
the plains. The additional moisture may also result in a few more
storms east of the mountains if the cap can be broken. It looks
like the best chance should be over the Palmer Divide...where some
of the storms could be strong.

The upper ridge begins to shift eastward across the Rocky Mountain
Region over the weekend...which should bring warmer and drier across
north central and northeastern Colorado. There may be enough
moisture...combined with daytime heating...to produce isolated
high based storms across the high country. An isolated strong
storm may also be possible across the far northeastern plains due
to better shear and low level moisture.

Early next week...the upper high is forecasted to move east into the
southern plains states. As it does...monsoonal moisture should begin
to flow into Colorado from the south...which should result in
slightly cooler temperatures along with increased precipitation
chances across the region.

&&

.AVIATION...(For the 00Z TAFS through 00Z Thursday evening)
Issued at 657 PM MDT Wed Jul 27 2016

Outflow from storms over the plains resulting in increasing NE
winds up to 35kt at KDEN/BJC and will get into APA around 02z.
Still some low potential for storms over terminals given outflow
but confidence is low and not mention additional storms yet.
Certainly something to watch for tonight.

&&

.BOU Watches/Warnings/Advisories...
None.
&&

UPDATE...Entrekin
SHORT TERM...Meier
LONG TERM...Kalina
AVIATION...Entrekin

HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DENVER/BOULDER CO
1114 AM MDT WED JUL 27 2016

COZ030>051-281715-
JACKSON COUNTY BELOW 9000 FEET-
WEST JACKSON AND WEST GRAND COUNTIES ABOVE 9000 FEET-
GRAND AND SUMMIT COUNTIES BELOW 9000 FEET-
SOUTH AND EAST JACKSON/LARIMER/NORTH AND NORTHEAST GRAND/
NORTHWEST BOULDER COUNTIES ABOVE 9000 FEET-
SOUTH AND SOUTHEAST GRAND/WEST CENTRAL AND SOUTHWEST BOULDER/
GILPIN/CLEAR CREEK/SUMMIT/NORTH AND WEST PARK COUNTIES ABOVE
9000 FEET-LARIMER AND BOULDER COUNTIES BETWEEN 6000 AND 9000 FEET-
JEFFERSON AND WEST DOUGLAS COUNTIES ABOVE 6000 FEET/GILPIN/CLEAR
CREEK/NORTHEAST PARK COUNTIES BELOW 9000 FEET-
CENTRAL AND SOUTHEAST PARK COUNTY-
LARIMER COUNTY BELOW 6000 FEET/NORTHWEST WELD COUNTY-
BOULDER AND JEFFERSON COUNTIES BELOW 6000 FEET/WEST BROOMFIELD
COUNTY-
NORTH DOUGLAS COUNTY BELOW 6000 FEET/DENVER/WEST ADAMS AND
ARAPAHOE COUNTIES/EAST BROOMFIELD COUNTY-
ELBERT/CENTRAL AND EAST DOUGLAS COUNTIES ABOVE 6000 FEET-
NORTHEAST WELD COUNTY-CENTRAL AND SOUTH WELD COUNTY-MORGAN COUNTY-
CENTRAL AND EAST ADAMS AND ARAPAHOE COUNTIES-
NORTH AND NORTHEAST ELBERT COUNTY BELOW 6000 FEET/NORTH LINCOLN
COUNTY-
SOUTHEAST ELBERT COUNTY BELOW 6000 FEET/SOUTH LINCOLN COUNTY-
LOGAN COUNTY-WASHINGTON COUNTY-SEDGWICK COUNTY-PHILLIPS COUNTY-
1114 AM MDT WED JUL 27 2016

THIS HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK IS FOR NORTHEAST AND NORTH CENTRAL
COLORADO.

.DAY ONE...TODAY AND TONIGHT

SCATTERED LATE AFTERNOON AND EVENING THUNDERSTORMS WILL DEVELOP
MAINLY EAST OF A LINE FROM NEW RAYMER TO LIMON...ONE OR TWO OF
WHICH COULD PRODUCE DAMAGING THUNDERSTORM WINDS AND LARGE HAIL.
WEST OF THIS LINE THE THUNDERSTORMS COVERAGE WILL BE ISOLATED AT
BEST.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...THURSDAY THROUGH TUESDAY

STORM ACTIVITY WILL DECREASE OVER THE MOUNTAINS WHILE INCREASING
OVER THE FAR NORTHEASTERN PLAINS ON THURSDAY WITH A FEW SEVERE
STORMS POSSIBLE. FRIDAY WILL BE A LITTLE COOLER WITH A FEW STRONG
STORMS POSSIBLE MOST LIKELY OVER THE PALMER DIVIDE. LOCALLY HEAVY
RAIN WILL ALSO BE POSSIBLE WITH THE STORMS EACH EVENING.

THE WEEKEND WILL BECOME WARMER AND DRIER OVER THE PLAINS WHILE
AFTERNOON STORMS INCREASE OVER THE HIGH TERRAIN. EARLY NEXT WEEK
WILL SEE AFTERNOON STORMS CONTINUE OVER THE MOUNTAINS ALONG WITH
ISOLATED SHOWERS ON THE PLAINS.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

SPOTTER ACTIVATION IS NOT EXPECTED TODAY OR TONIGHT.

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DENVER CO
410 PM MDT WED JUL 27 2016

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

0348 PM     HAIL             4 E ARRIBA              39.28N 103.20W
07/27/2016  M1.75 INCH       LINCOLN            CO   TRAINED SPOTTER

&&

NGUSACK

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT...CORRECTED
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DENVER CO
532 PM MDT WED JUL 27 2016

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

0457 PM     HAIL             6 NE NUNN               40.77N 104.70W
07/27/2016  M1.75 INCH       WELD               CO   TRAINED SPOTTER

0452 PM     HAIL             5 NNE NUNN              40.77N 104.76W
07/27/2016  M1.75 INCH       WELD               CO   TRAINED SPOTTER

0414 PM     HAIL             S ARRIBA                39.28N 103.27W
07/27/2016  E1.50 INCH       LINCOLN            CO   PUBLIC

0348 PM     HAIL             4 E ARRIBA              39.28N 103.20W
07/27/2016  M1.75 INCH       LINCOLN            CO   TRAINED SPOTTER

&&

NGUSACK

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT...CORRECTED
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DENVER CO
559 PM MDT WED JUL 27 2016

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

0545 PM     HAIL             1 ESE GALETON           40.52N 104.56W
07/27/2016  M1.75 INCH       WELD               CO   TRAINED SPOTTER

0457 PM     HAIL             6 NE NUNN               40.77N 104.70W
07/27/2016  M1.75 INCH       WELD               CO   TRAINED SPOTTER

0452 PM     HAIL             5 NNE NUNN              40.77N 104.76W
07/27/2016  M1.75 INCH       WELD               CO   TRAINED SPOTTER

0414 PM     HAIL             S ARRIBA                39.28N 103.27W
07/27/2016  E1.50 INCH       LINCOLN            CO   PUBLIC

0348 PM     HAIL             4 E ARRIBA              39.28N 103.20W
07/27/2016  M1.75 INCH       LINCOLN            CO   TRAINED SPOTTER

&&

NGUSACK

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT...CORRECTED
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DENVER CO
627 PM MDT WED JUL 27 2016

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

0610 PM     HAIL             2 E KERSEY              40.39N 104.52W
07/27/2016  E2.50 INCH       WELD               CO   PUBLIC

0545 PM     HAIL             1 ESE GALETON           40.52N 104.56W
07/27/2016  M1.75 INCH       WELD               CO   TRAINED SPOTTER

0457 PM     HAIL             6 NE NUNN               40.77N 104.70W
07/27/2016  M1.75 INCH       WELD               CO   TRAINED SPOTTER

0452 PM     HAIL             5 NNE NUNN              40.77N 104.76W
07/27/2016  M1.75 INCH       WELD               CO   TRAINED SPOTTER

0414 PM     HAIL             S ARRIBA                39.28N 103.27W
07/27/2016  E1.50 INCH       LINCOLN            CO   PUBLIC

0348 PM     HAIL             4 E ARRIBA              39.28N 103.20W
07/27/2016  M1.75 INCH       LINCOLN            CO   TRAINED SPOTTER

&&

NGUSACK

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT...CORRECTED
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DENVER CO
631 PM MDT WED JUL 27 2016

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

0610 PM     HAIL             2 E KERSEY              40.39N 104.52W
07/27/2016  E2.50 INCH       WELD               CO   PUBLIC

0545 PM     HAIL             1 ESE GALETON           40.52N 104.56W
07/27/2016  M1.75 INCH       WELD               CO   TRAINED SPOTTER

0515 PM     HAIL             1 S GALETON             40.51N 104.58W
07/27/2016  M2.00 INCH       WELD               CO   TRAINED SPOTTER

0457 PM     HAIL             6 NE NUNN               40.77N 104.70W
07/27/2016  M1.75 INCH       WELD               CO   TRAINED SPOTTER

0452 PM     HAIL             5 NNE NUNN              40.77N 104.76W
07/27/2016  M1.75 INCH       WELD               CO   TRAINED SPOTTER

0414 PM     HAIL             S ARRIBA                39.28N 103.27W
07/27/2016  E1.50 INCH       LINCOLN            CO   PUBLIC

0348 PM     HAIL             4 E ARRIBA              39.28N 103.20W
07/27/2016  M1.75 INCH       LINCOLN            CO   TRAINED SPOTTER

&&

NGUSACK