Severe Thunderstorm Warning 17, NWS Denver/Boulder, CO

199 
WWUS55 KBOU 082149
SVSBOU

SEVERE WEATHER STATEMENT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DENVER CO
349 PM MDT SUN MAY 8 2016

COC001-082159-
/O.CAN.KBOU.SV.W.0017.000000T0000Z-160508T2200Z/
ADAMS CO-
349 PM MDT SUN MAY 8 2016

...THE SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WARNING FOR SOUTHEASTERN ADAMS COUNTY IS
CANCELLED...
                
THE STORM WHICH PROMPTED THE WARNING HAS WEAKENED BELOW SEVERE
LIMITS...AND NO LONGER POSES AN IMMEDIATE THREAT TO LIFE OR PROPERTY.
THEREFORE THE WARNING HAS BEEN CANCELLED.  HOWEVER SMALL HAIL....
GUSTY WINDS AND HEAVY RAIN ARE STILL POSSIBLE WITH THIS THUNDERSTORM.

LAT...LON 3975 10371 3974 10384 3974 10396 3989 10403
      3999 10371
TIME...MOT...LOC 2142Z 239DEG 20KT 3985 10376 

$$

RPK

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DENVER/BOULDER CO
1114 AM MDT SUN MAY 8 2016

.UPDATE...
ISSUED AT 1030 AM MDT SUN MAY 8 2016

SATELLITE PICTURES SHOW QUITE A BIT OF DEVELOPING CLOUDINESS OVER
ALL BUT THE SOUTHEASTERN CWA. THERE ARE SOME RADAR ECHOES
DEVELOPING OVER THE MOUNTAINS AND FOOTHILLS RIGHT NOW. THE
BOUNDARY LAYER FLOW IS PRETTY WEAK CURRENTLY AND THE MODELS KEEP
AN EASTERLY COMPONENT TO IT INTO THIS EVENING. THE LAPSE RATES ARE
PROGGED TO BE FAIRLY STEEP WITH THE UPPER LOW AROUND. LATEST
CAPE VALUES AND PROGS STILL SHOW NOTHING OVER 1000 J/KG ANYWAY
FOR THE CWA THIS AFTERNOON AND EVENING. THERE IS SOME WEAK UPWARD
MOTION PROGGED ON THE QG OMEGA FIELDS. TEMPERATURES ARE SLOW IN
WARMING RIGHT NOW AND DEW POINTS LOOK TO STAY IN THE 35 TO 45 F
RANGE THROUGH THE EVENING. NOT TOO CONCERNED ABOUT SEVERE WEATHER
ALTHOUGH THE FREEZING LEVEL IS PRETTY LOW. WILL MAKE SOME TIMING
ISSUES ON THE GFE GRIDS WITH THE START OF THE SHOWERS/STORMS.
THEY COMMENCE TO EARLY IN THE CURRENT GRIDS.

&&

.SHORT TERM...(TODAY AND TONIGHT)
ISSUED AT 344 AM MDT SUN MAY 8 2016

AN UPPER LEVEL LOW WILL BE CENTERED OVER WYOMING TODAY. IT WILL
SHIFT EAST INTO NEBRASKA OVERNIGHT. FOR NORTHEAST COLORADO...A
COOL AND MOIST NORTHWEST FLOW ALOFT WILL PREVAIL. THE LOW IS
BRINGING RAIN AND MOUNTAIN SNOW SHOWERS TO JACKSON AND NORTHERN
LARIMER COUNTIES THIS MORNING. PRECIPITATION IS GENERALLY LIGHT.
ALSO...LOW CLOUDS HAVE FORMED OVER THE EASTERN PLAINS. THIS MAY
SLOW WARMING THIS MORNING. TEMPERATURES ARE EXPECTED TO WARM INTO
THE LOWER TO MID 60S ACROSS THE EASTERN PLAINS AND DENVER METRO
AREA. TEMPERATURES WILL BE COOLER UNDER THE CLOUDS NORTH TOWARDS
WYOMING. COOL AIR ALOFT WILL ALLOW THE AIRMASS TO BECOME UNSTABLE
THIS AFTERNOON. CAPES WILL GENERALLY BE LESS THAN A 1000 J/KG.
SCATTERED SHOWERS AND STORMS ARE EXPECTED TO FORM THIS AFTERNOON
AND LINGER INTO THE EARLY EVENING. SMALL HAIL AND BRIEF HEAVY RAIN
WILL BE POSSIBLE WITH THE STORMS. JUST A SMALL CHANCE HAIL COULD
REACH ONE INCH OVER THE NORTHEAST CORNER OF COLORADO...OTHERWISE
STORMS ARE EXPECTED TO STAY BELOW SEVERE THRESHOLDS.

SHOWERS AND STORMS WILL DECREASE AND END EARLY TO MID EVENING AS
THE AIRMASS STABILIZES. A WEAK WAVE EMBEDDED IN THE NORTHWEST
FLOW ALOFT IS PROGGED TO DROP SOUTHEAST AND INCREASE THE SHOWERS
OVER THE HIGHER TERRAIN OVERNIGHT. A FEW OF THE SHOWERS MAY MAKE
IT ONTO THE FRONT RANGE.

.LONG TERM...(MONDAY THROUGH SATURDAY)
ISSUED AT 344 AM MDT SUN MAY 8 2016

AN UPPER DISTURBANCE OVER COLORADO MONDAY MORNING WILL PUSH
SOUTHEAST THROUGH THE DAY LEAVING NORTHWEST FLOW ALOFT. RAIN AND
SNOW SHOWERS...MAINLY OVER THE MOUNTAINS...WILL DECREASE THROUGH
THE MORNING WITH A SLIGHT UPTICK IN THE AFTERNOON WITH DIURNAL
HEATING...BUT THIS WILL BATTLE DOWNWARD QG VERTICAL VELOCITIES.
THE MOUNTAINS MAY PICK UP 1 TO 4 INCHES OF SNOW DURING THE DAY AND
NIGHT IN THE FAVORED NORTHWEST FLOW. TEMPERATURES WILL WARM INTO
THE 60S TO NEAR 70 FOR THE PLAINS AND IN THE 40S AND LOW 50S FOR
THE MOUNTAINS. LOOK FOR CLEARING SKIES AT NIGHT AND WARMER MINIMUM
TEMPERATURES TO BE RIGHT AROUND SEASONAL READINGS.

ANOTHER DISTURBANCE WILL PUSH DOWN THE NORTHERN ROCKIES TO
INCREASE SHOWER AND THUNDERSTORM COVERAGE ACROSS THE AREA TUESDAY.
SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS WILL BE MOSTLY DIURNALLY DRIVEN...SO
EXPECT A SHARP DECREASE IN COVERAGE IN THE EVENING AND OVERNIGHT. A
COLD FRONT WILL PUSH SOUTH ACROSS THE AREA WITH COLDER AIR
FILTERING IN LATER IN THE DAY AND OVERNIGHT. LOWS ARE EXPECTED TO
BE MID 30S OVER THE PLAINS AND IN THE 20S TO TEENS IN THE
MOUNTAINS. THE MOUNTAINS COULD SEE UP TO A COUPLE INCHES OF SNOW.

THE AIRMASS LOOKS TO REMAIN QUITE STABLE WEDNESDAY EVEN THOUGH
THERE IS SLIGHT TROUGHING ALOFT. WILL HAVE JUST A SLIGHT CHANCE OF
SHOWERS...AFTERNOON STORMS...AND COOL TEMPERATURES.

UPPER RIDGING THURSDAY AND FRIDAY WILL PROMOTE A WARMER AND DRIER
TWO DAYS. THIS THEN SEEMS TO BE FOLLOWED BY ANOTHER SYSTEM DIVING
SOUTHEAST FROM THE PAC NW TO BRING THE STATE MORE SHOWERS
SATURDAY.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z MONDAY AFTERNOON)
ISSUED AT 1030 AM MDT SUN MAY 8 2016

WINDS HAVE BEEN ALL OVER THE PLACE AT DIA THIS MORNING...BUT AT
LEAST THE SPEEDS HAVE COME DOWN BELOW 10 KNOTS RECENTLY.C MODELS
KEEP THEM WITH SOME SORT OF EASTERLY COMPONENT THROUGH THE DAY
UNTIL SOME WEAK DRAINAGE BY 06Z TONIGHT. WILL KEEP THE MENTION OF
THUNDER IN A TEMPO GROUP. CEILINGS COULD BE AN ISSUE WITH THE
STORMS...MAYBE DOWN TO BKN030.

&&

.BOU WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

UPDATE...RJK
SHORT TERM...MEIER
LONG TERM...KRIEDERMAN
AVIATION...RJK

HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DENVER/BOULDER CO
1118 AM MDT SUN MAY 8 2016

COZ030>051-091730-
JACKSON COUNTY BELOW 9000 FEET-
WEST JACKSON AND WEST GRAND COUNTIES ABOVE 9000 FEET-
GRAND AND SUMMIT COUNTIES BELOW 9000 FEET-
SOUTH AND EAST JACKSON/LARIMER/NORTH AND NORTHEAST GRAND/
NORTHWEST BOULDER COUNTIES ABOVE 9000 FEET-
SOUTH AND SOUTHEAST GRAND/WEST CENTRAL AND SOUTHWEST BOULDER/
GILPIN/CLEAR CREEK/SUMMIT/NORTH AND WEST PARK COUNTIES ABOVE
9000 FEET-LARIMER AND BOULDER COUNTIES BETWEEN 6000 AND 9000 FEET-
JEFFERSON AND WEST DOUGLAS COUNTIES ABOVE 6000 FEET/GILPIN/CLEAR
CREEK/NORTHEAST PARK COUNTIES BELOW 9000 FEET-
CENTRAL AND SOUTHEAST PARK COUNTY-
LARIMER COUNTY BELOW 6000 FEET/NORTHWEST WELD COUNTY-
BOULDER AND JEFFERSON COUNTIES BELOW 6000 FEET/WEST BROOMFIELD
COUNTY-
NORTH DOUGLAS COUNTY BELOW 6000 FEET/DENVER/WEST ADAMS AND
ARAPAHOE COUNTIES/EAST BROOMFIELD COUNTY-
ELBERT/CENTRAL AND EAST DOUGLAS COUNTIES ABOVE 6000 FEET-
NORTHEAST WELD COUNTY-CENTRAL AND SOUTH WELD COUNTY-MORGAN COUNTY-
CENTRAL AND EAST ADAMS AND ARAPAHOE COUNTIES-
NORTH AND NORTHEAST ELBERT COUNTY BELOW 6000 FEET/NORTH LINCOLN
COUNTY-
SOUTHEAST ELBERT COUNTY BELOW 6000 FEET/SOUTH LINCOLN COUNTY-
LOGAN COUNTY-WASHINGTON COUNTY-SEDGWICK COUNTY-PHILLIPS COUNTY-
1118 AM MDT SUN MAY 8 2016

THIS HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK IS FOR NORTHEAST AND NORTH CENTRAL
COLORADO.

.DAY ONE...THIS AFTERNOON AND TONIGHT

SCATTERED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS WILL DEVELOP EARLY THIS
AFTERNOON IN THE MOUNTAINS AND FOOTHILLS AND PUSH OVER THE
PLAINS BY MID TO LATE AFTERNOON. THE STRONGER STORMS WILL BE
CAPABLE OF PRODUCING SMALL HAIL AND HEAVY RAIN. IN THE
MOUNTAINS...UP TO 4 INCHES OF SNOW WILL BE POSSIBLE WITH THE
SHOWERS AND STORMS.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...MONDAY THROUGH SATURDAY

ISOLATED TO SCATTERED RAIN SHOWERS AND HIGH ELEVATION SNOW
SHOWERS ON MONDAY WILL INCREASE IN COVERAGE TUESDAY AS ANOTHER
SYSTEM MOVES INTO THE AREA. AN ASSOCIATED COLD FRONT WILL PUSH
DOWN TO COOL TEMPERATURES THROUGH WEDNESDAY. THEN...UPPER RIDGING
WILL PROVIDE DRIER AND WARMER CONDITIONS THURSDAY THROUGH FRIDAY.
ANOTHER SYSTEM MAY BRING MORE SHOWERY WEATHER TO THE STATE
SATURDAY.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

SPOTTER ACTIVATION WILL NOT BE NEEDED TODAY OR TONIGHT.

SPECIAL WEATHER STATEMENT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DENVER CO
233 PM MDT SUN MAY 8 2016

COZ044-049-082100-
WASHINGTON COUNTY CO-MORGAN COUNTY CO-
233 PM MDT SUN MAY 8 2016

...SIGNIFICANT WEATHER ADVISORY FOR CENTRAL WASHINGTON AND
SOUTHEASTERN MORGAN COUNTIES UNTIL 300 PM MDT...

AT 233 PM MDT...DOPPLER RADAR WAS TRACKING A STRONG THUNDERSTORM 7
MILES NORTHEAST OF WOODLIN SCHOOL...OR 22 MILES SOUTHWEST OF AKRON...
MOVING NORTH AT 25 MPH.

NICKEL SIZE HAIL AND WIND GUSTS UP TO 50 MPH WILL BE POSSIBLE WITH
THIS STORM.

LOCATIONS IMPACTED INCLUDE...
AKRON AND ELBA.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

PREPARE FOR SUDDEN GUSTY WINDS. SECURE LOOSE OBJECTS AND MOVE TO A
SAFE SHELTER INSIDE A BUILDING OR VEHICLE.

FREQUENT CLOUD TO GROUND LIGHTNING IS OCCURRING WITH THIS STORM.
LIGHTNING CAN STRIKE 15 MILES AWAY FROM A THUNDERSTORM. SEEK A SAFE
SHELTER INSIDE A BUILDING OR VEHICLE.

&&

LAT...LON 3984 10355 4016 10356 4016 10315 3983 10319
TIME...MOT...LOC 2033Z 188DEG 23KT 3989 10346

RPK

SPECIAL WEATHER STATEMENT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DENVER CO
324 PM MDT SUN MAY 8 2016

COZ045-082200-
CENTRAL AND EAST ADAMS AND ARAPAHOE COUNTIES CO-
324 PM MDT SUN MAY 8 2016

...SIGNIFICANT WEATHER ADVISORY FOR NORTHEASTERN ARAPAHOE AND
SOUTHEASTERN ADAMS COUNTIES UNTIL 400 PM MDT...

AT 323 PM MDT...DOPPLER RADAR WAS TRACKING A STRONG THUNDERSTORM 9
MILES SOUTHWEST OF SHAMROCK...OR 34 MILES SOUTH OF FORT MORGAN...
MOVING NORTHEAST AT 25 MPH.

NICKEL SIZE HAIL AND WINDS IN EXCESS OF 40 MPH WILL BE POSSIBLE WITH
THIS STORM.

LOCATIONS IMPACTED INCLUDE...
SHAMROCK.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

PREPARE FOR SUDDEN GUSTY WINDS. SECURE LOOSE OBJECTS AND MOVE TO A
SAFE SHELTER INSIDE A BUILDING OR VEHICLE.

FREQUENT CLOUD TO GROUND LIGHTNING IS OCCURRING WITH THIS STORM.
LIGHTNING CAN STRIKE 15 MILES AWAY FROM A THUNDERSTORM. SEEK A SAFE
SHELTER INSIDE A BUILDING OR VEHICLE.

&&

LAT...LON 3997 10375 3988 10370 3977 10371 3968 10392
      3986 10402
TIME...MOT...LOC 2123Z 239DEG 20KT 3978 10392

RPK