River Flood Advisory 5, NWS Denver/Boulder, CO

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Denver/Boulder CO
238 PM MDT WED JUN 8 2016

.SHORT TERM...(This evening through Thursday)
Issued at 150 PM MDT Wed Jun 8 2016

A weak upper trough will remain over northeast CO this evening
but the QG associated with this feature in nearly neutral.  Weak
thunderstorm development so far this afternoon. The HRRR keeps the
best coverage late this afternoon and evening south and east of
Denver...with lesser coverage to the north and west.  Most of the
tstms will end by 06z tngt. On Thursday...increasing subsidence in
the mid levels as a ridge of high pressure builds over the state.
It will be warmer but increasing subsidence will likely limit the
thunderstorm development in the aftn. Will keep the mention of
tstms Thursday aftn confined to the higher terrain.

.LONG TERM...(Thursday night through Wednesday)
Issued at 150 PM MDT Wed Jun 8 2016

Upper level ridge over the four corners Thursday night will
intensify as it drifts east Friday and Saturday. This will bring
warm and mainly dry conditions to the area through Saturday. Best
chance for convection will be over the higher terrain where
isolated thunderstorms will be possible. Warmest day of the week
will be Friday with highs climbing above 90 degrees across
northeast Colorado.

The upper level ridge will be over the Mississippi Valley Sunday
with a trough over the western states. This will produce a south-
southwest flow aloft across the Central Rockies. There are
considerable differences between the GFS and the ECMWF. The GEM
and previous runs of the ECMWF support the 12z ECMWF solution and
will trend the forecast towards this solution which breaks the
upper level trough into two pieces. One that moves across the
northern states. The second one slowly moves across the Desert
Southwest and across the Central Rockies early next week. Expect
this system to bring cooler temperatures and scattered
thunderstorms Sunday through Tuesday. The GFS is weak and quicker
with this trough which brings less convection. Once this trough
shifts east of the region dry southwest flow aloft is expected to
prevail on Wednesday.

&&

.AVIATION...(For the 18Z TAFS through 18Z Thursday afternoon)
Issued at 150 PM MDT Wed Jun 8 2016

VFR will prevail into Thu aftn. Weak tstm development so far so
will go with just vcts at KDEN/KAPA...with a tempo group for tstms
at KAPA. Outflow winds the main issue...so will have this in all
the tafs from 23z-02z. otherwise ne winds will transition to
west/northwest as high based showers/tstms drift across the Urban
Corridor...then normal drainage winds later this evening.

&&

.BOU Watches/Warnings/Advisories...
None.
&&

SHORT TERM...Cooper
LONG TERM...Meier
AVIATION...Cooper