Red Flag Warning 26, NWS Denver/Boulder, CO

812 
WWUS85 KBOU 030237
RFWBOU

URGENT - FIRE WEATHER MESSAGE
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DENVER/BOULDER CO
837 PM MDT SUN OCT 2 2016

...FIRE DANGER WILL INCREASE OVER THE PALMER DIVIDE AND EASTERN
PLAINS MONDAY AFTERNOON...

COZ239>241-244>251-031045-
/O.CON.KBOU.FW.W.0026.161003T1800Z-161004T0100Z/
BOULDER AND JEFFERSON COUNTIES BELOW 6000 FEET/WEST BROOMFIELD
COUNTY-
NORTH DOUGLAS COUNTY BELOW 6000 FEET/DENVER/WEST ADAMS AND
ARAPAHOE COUNTIES/EAST BROOMFIELD COUNTY-
ELBERT/CENTRAL AND EAST DOUGLAS COUNTIES ABOVE 6000 FEET-
MORGAN COUNTY-CENTRAL AND EAST ADAMS AND ARAPAHOE COUNTIES-
NORTH AND NORTHEAST ELBERT COUNTY BELOW 6000 FEET/NORTH LINCOLN
COUNTY-
SOUTHEAST ELBERT COUNTY BELOW 6000 FEET/SOUTH LINCOLN COUNTY-
LOGAN COUNTY-WASHINGTON COUNTY-SEDGWICK COUNTY-PHILLIPS COUNTY-
837 PM MDT SUN OCT 2 2016

...RED FLAG WARNING REMAINS IN EFFECT FROM NOON TO 7 PM MDT
MONDAY FOR WIND AND LOW RELATIVE HUMIDITY FOR FIRE WEATHER ZONES
241...244...245...246...247...248...249...250...AND 251...

* AFFECTED AREA...FIRE WEATHER ZONES 239...240...241...244... 
  245...246...247...248...249...250 AND 251.

* TIMING...NOON TO 7 PM MONDAY.

* WINDS...SOUTHWEST 15 TO 25 MPH WITH GUSTS UP TO 35 MPH. WINDS
  WILL BEGIN TO TURN WESTERLY 15 TO 30 MPH LATE IN THE AFTERNOON.

* RELATIVE HUMIDITY...AS LOW AS 14 PERCENT.

* IMPACTS...DUE TO DRY CONDITIONS AND INCREASING WINDS...PEOPLE 
  SHOULD BE EXTREMELY CAREFUL WITH ANYTHING CAPABLE OF PRODUCING 
  A SPARK AND FIRE. CARELESSNESS OR INATTENTION COULD RESULT IN 
  FIRES THAT SPREAD RAPIDLY.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

A RED FLAG WARNING MEANS THAT CRITICAL FIRE WEATHER CONDITIONS
ARE EITHER OCCURRING NOW....OR WILL SHORTLY. A COMBINATION OF
STRONG WINDS...LOW RELATIVE HUMIDITY...AND WARM TEMPERATURES CAN
CONTRIBUTE TO EXTREME FIRE BEHAVIOR.

&&

$$

661 
WWUS85 KBOU 031315
RFWBOU

URGENT - FIRE WEATHER MESSAGE
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DENVER/BOULDER CO
715 AM MDT MON OCT 3 2016

...FIRE DANGER WILL INCREASE OVER THE PALMER DIVIDE AND EASTERN
PLAINS THIS AFTERNOON...

COZ239>241-244>251-032115-
/O.CON.KBOU.FW.W.0026.161003T1800Z-161004T0100Z/
BOULDER AND JEFFERSON COUNTIES BELOW 6000 FEET/WEST BROOMFIELD
COUNTY-
NORTH DOUGLAS COUNTY BELOW 6000 FEET/DENVER/WEST ADAMS AND
ARAPAHOE COUNTIES/EAST BROOMFIELD COUNTY-
ELBERT/CENTRAL AND EAST DOUGLAS COUNTIES ABOVE 6000 FEET-
MORGAN COUNTY-CENTRAL AND EAST ADAMS AND ARAPAHOE COUNTIES-
NORTH AND NORTHEAST ELBERT COUNTY BELOW 6000 FEET/NORTH LINCOLN
COUNTY-
SOUTHEAST ELBERT COUNTY BELOW 6000 FEET/SOUTH LINCOLN COUNTY-
LOGAN COUNTY-WASHINGTON COUNTY-SEDGWICK COUNTY-PHILLIPS COUNTY-
715 AM MDT MON OCT 3 2016

...RED FLAG WARNING REMAINS IN EFFECT FROM NOON TODAY TO 7 PM MDT
THIS EVENING FOR WIND AND LOW RELATIVE HUMIDITY FOR FIRE WEATHER
ZONES 241...244...245...246...247...248...249...250...AND 251...

* AFFECTED AREA...FIRE WEATHER ZONES 239...240...241...244... 
  245...246...247...248...249...250 AND 251.

* TIMING...NOON TO 7 PM MONDAY.

* WINDS...INCREASING TO SOUTHWEST 20 TO 25 MPH WITH GUSTS UP TO
  35 MPH.

* RELATIVE HUMIDITY...AS LOW AS 10 TO 15 PERCENT.

* IMPACTS...DUE TO DRY CONDITIONS AND INCREASING WINDS...PEOPLE 
  SHOULD BE EXTREMELY CAREFUL WITH ANYTHING CAPABLE OF PRODUCING 
  A SPARK AND FIRE. CARELESSNESS OR INATTENTION COULD RESULT IN 
  FIRES THAT SPREAD RAPIDLY.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

A RED FLAG WARNING MEANS THAT CRITICAL FIRE WEATHER CONDITIONS
ARE EITHER OCCURRING NOW....OR WILL SHORTLY. A COMBINATION OF
STRONG WINDS...LOW RELATIVE HUMIDITY...AND WARM TEMPERATURES CAN
CONTRIBUTE TO EXTREME FIRE BEHAVIOR.

&&

$$

769 
WWUS85 KBOU 031809
RFWBOU

URGENT - FIRE WEATHER MESSAGE
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DENVER/BOULDER CO
1209 PM MDT MON OCT 3 2016


COZ239>241-244>251-040100-
/O.CON.KBOU.FW.W.0026.000000T0000Z-161004T0100Z/
BOULDER AND JEFFERSON COUNTIES BELOW 6000 FEET/WEST BROOMFIELD
COUNTY-
NORTH DOUGLAS COUNTY BELOW 6000 FEET/DENVER/WEST ADAMS AND
ARAPAHOE COUNTIES/EAST BROOMFIELD COUNTY-
ELBERT/CENTRAL AND EAST DOUGLAS COUNTIES ABOVE 6000 FEET-
MORGAN COUNTY-CENTRAL AND EAST ADAMS AND ARAPAHOE COUNTIES-
NORTH AND NORTHEAST ELBERT COUNTY BELOW 6000 FEET/NORTH LINCOLN
COUNTY-
SOUTHEAST ELBERT COUNTY BELOW 6000 FEET/SOUTH LINCOLN COUNTY-
LOGAN COUNTY-WASHINGTON COUNTY-SEDGWICK COUNTY-PHILLIPS COUNTY-
1209 PM MDT MON OCT 3 2016

...RED FLAG WARNING REMAINS IN EFFECT UNTIL 7 PM MDT THIS EVENING
FOR WIND AND LOW RELATIVE HUMIDITY FOR FIRE WEATHER ZONES 241...
244...245...246...247...248...249...250...AND 251...

* AFFECTED AREA...FIRE WEATHER ZONES 239...240...241...244... 
  245...246...247...248...249...250 AND 251.

* TIMING...NOON TO 7 PM MONDAY.

* WINDS...SOUTHWEST 15 TO 25 MPH WITH GUSTS OF 40 TO 45 MPH.

* RELATIVE HUMIDITY...AS LOW AS 13 PERCENT.

* IMPACTS...DUE TO DRY CONDITIONS AND INCREASING WINDS...PEOPLE 
  SHOULD BE EXTREMELY CAREFUL WITH ANYTHING CAPABLE OF PRODUCING 
  A SPARK AND FIRE. CARELESSNESS OR INATTENTION COULD RESULT IN 
  FIRES THAT SPREAD RAPIDLY.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

A RED FLAG WARNING MEANS THAT CRITICAL FIRE WEATHER CONDITIONS
ARE EITHER OCCURRING NOW....OR WILL SHORTLY. A COMBINATION OF
STRONG WINDS...LOW RELATIVE HUMIDITY...AND WARM TEMPERATURES CAN
CONTRIBUTE TO EXTREME FIRE BEHAVIOR.

&&

$$

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Denver/Boulder CO
340 PM MDT Sun Oct 2 2016

.SHORT TERM...(This evening through Monday)
Issued at 340 PM MDT Sun Oct 2 2016

Scattered showers and thunderstorms have developed in the better
moisture around Akron and Limon. Further northwest there is less
moisture and very little CAPE. Still a shallow convective layer
that will fill with clouds and some weak showers. Best chance of
rain over the mountains and also Larimer county with the
strengthening southeast flow, but only expecting scattered light
showers in those areas. Increased cloud cover some more overnight
as it looks like the cloud layer will likely persist until the
trough comes through. Raised lows in the mountains a little as
well.

Trough axis slated for Denver around sunrise. Should be enough
lift to produce scattered light showers over the mountains, but
strengthening southwest low level winds should kill them quickly
coming over the divide. For Monday drier air will be moving in
with subsidence taking over. There is currently some shallow
convection in the drier air behind the trough over Utah, so I will
keep some cloud cover. However the lower levelS will be drying
substantially.

.LONG TERM...(Monday night through Sunday)
Issued at 340 PM MDT Sun Oct 2 2016

Monday night...models show an upper level trough of low pressure
covering much of the western United States...with a deep upper low
over eastern Montana. This pattern will allow a Pacific Front to
move across the CWA which overnight which should result in gusty
west to northwesterly winds especially across the
mountains...foothills and northern portions of the plains. The
Sangster Model shows the potential for strong winds across the
foothills...however stability above mountain top level does not look
too favorable. Therefore...think speeds should remain below high
wind criteria...with possibly a few pockets of stronger winds across
the higher foothills. Despite a good orographic flow...cross
sections show the atmosphere to be somewhat dry. Therefore...only
expect isolated to scattered showers over the northern
mountains...mainly over zone 31.

On Tuesday...a broad upper trough will cover much of the western
United States....with a 100+ KT jet moving over the southwestern
half of Colorado. Models all show quite a bit of QG downward motion
through much of the day as well as decreased moisture. This should
limit shower activity in the high country with mainly isolated
showers over the higher peaks. Temperatures on Tuesday should be
around 15 degrees cooler than Monday's readings...with mid to upper
60s on the plains.

On Wednesday...the upper low moves into Canada as a secondary upper
trough deepens over the western U.S with a 100+ KT upper jet
stretching from southwest to northeast across Colorado. Moisture
still looks limited...but upward QG forcing should allow for higher
precipitation chances over the high country. The plains should
remain mainly dry through the day...however some showers could
develop during the evening behind the passage of a cold front.

On Thursday...the ECMWF and GFS show the upper trough moving across
Colorado with a secondary cold front moving across northeastern
Colorado during the day. The GFS is a little deeper and colder with
this system and more pronounced with the second cold front than the
ECMWF. This pattern should result in colder temperatures and a good
chance of showers across the area. It may be cold enough Thursday
morning to see some snow showers on the plains. Thursday should be
the coldest day of the week with high temperatures only making it
into the 50 on the plains. If we clear out enough...many areas
across northeastern Colorado could see the first freeze of the
season.

Warmer and drier weather is expected Friday into the weekend...as
weak upper level high pressure builds over the Rocky Mountain Region.

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...
Issued at 340 PM MDT Sun Oct 2 2016

Decided to issue a Red Flag Warning for our watch area over the
plains generally south of Interstate 76, and to add the Denver
metro area as well since winds should be strong enough and areas
near the mountains will have the lowest humidities. Weld and
Larimer counties should have less wind in general, though it will
be windier along the state line. Temperatures will drop a little
in the afternoon which may boost humidities a bit, but conditions
will be bad enough to justify the warning.

&&

.AVIATION...(For the 00Z TAFS through 00Z Monday evening)
Issued at 340 PM MDT Sun Oct 2 2016

VFR through Monday. South winds will increase this evening with
gusts of 20-30 knots. The winds will become southwest Monday
morning, then west to northwest on Monday afternoon. There is a
good chance of west winds at 20-30 knots with some higher gusts on
Monday afternoon which could cause crosswind issues at KDEN and
KAPA. The winds should diminish a little and become more
northwesterly around 00z.

&&

.BOU WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
Red Flag Warning from Monday afternoon through Monday evening for
COZ239>241-244>251.

&&

SHORT TERM...Gimmestad
LONG TERM...Kalina
FIRE WEAWTHER...Gimmestad
AVIATION...Gimmestad

HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DENVER/BOULDER CO
1106 AM MDT SUN OCT 2 2016

COZ030>051-031715-
JACKSON COUNTY BELOW 9000 FEET-
WEST JACKSON AND WEST GRAND COUNTIES ABOVE 9000 FEET-
GRAND AND SUMMIT COUNTIES BELOW 9000 FEET-
SOUTH AND EAST JACKSON/LARIMER/NORTH AND NORTHEAST GRAND/
NORTHWEST BOULDER COUNTIES ABOVE 9000 FEET-
SOUTH AND SOUTHEAST GRAND/WEST CENTRAL AND SOUTHWEST BOULDER/
GILPIN/CLEAR CREEK/SUMMIT/NORTH AND WEST PARK COUNTIES ABOVE
9000 FEET-LARIMER AND BOULDER COUNTIES BETWEEN 6000 AND 9000 FEET-
JEFFERSON AND WEST DOUGLAS COUNTIES ABOVE 6000 FEET/GILPIN/CLEAR
CREEK/NORTHEAST PARK COUNTIES BELOW 9000 FEET-
CENTRAL AND SOUTHEAST PARK COUNTY-
LARIMER COUNTY BELOW 6000 FEET/NORTHWEST WELD COUNTY-
BOULDER AND JEFFERSON COUNTIES BELOW 6000 FEET/WEST BROOMFIELD
COUNTY-
NORTH DOUGLAS COUNTY BELOW 6000 FEET/DENVER/WEST ADAMS AND
ARAPAHOE COUNTIES/EAST BROOMFIELD COUNTY-
ELBERT/CENTRAL AND EAST DOUGLAS COUNTIES ABOVE 6000 FEET-
NORTHEAST WELD COUNTY-CENTRAL AND SOUTH WELD COUNTY-MORGAN COUNTY-
CENTRAL AND EAST ADAMS AND ARAPAHOE COUNTIES-
NORTH AND NORTHEAST ELBERT COUNTY BELOW 6000 FEET/NORTH LINCOLN
COUNTY-
SOUTHEAST ELBERT COUNTY BELOW 6000 FEET/SOUTH LINCOLN COUNTY-
LOGAN COUNTY-WASHINGTON COUNTY-SEDGWICK COUNTY-PHILLIPS COUNTY-
1106 AM MDT SUN OCT 2 2016

...ELEVATED FIRE DANGER OVER THE PALMER DIVIDE AND EASTERN PLAINS
ON MONDAY...

THIS HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK IS FOR NORTHEAST AND NORTH CENTRAL
COLORADO.

.DAY ONE...THIS AFTERNOON AND TONIGHT

CLOUDS WILL INCREASE WITH ISOLATED RAIN SHOWERS DEVELOPING THIS
AFTERNOON...MAINLY OVER THE MOUNTAINS. ANY RAINFALL WILL BE LIGHT.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...MONDAY THROUGH SATURDAY

FIRE DANGER WILL INCREASE ACROSS THE PALMER DIVIDE AND EASTERN
PLAINS MONDAY AFTERNOON AS GUSTY SOUTH TO SOUTHWEST WINDS COMBINE
WITH WARM TEMPERATURES AND LOW HUMIDITY LEVELS.

A STORM SYSTEM WILL TRACK ACROSS WYOMING MONDAY AFTERNOON INTO
MONDAY NIGHT WHICH WILL BRING A CHANCE OF SHOWERS AND A FEW
THUNDERSTORMS TO THE HIGHER TERRAIN. AT LOWER ELEVATIONS IT WILL
BE MAINLY DRY AS A COLD FRONT MOVES ACROSS MONDAY NIGHT WITH GUSTY
WINDS BEHIND THE FRONT.

ANOTHER WEATHER SYSTEM MAY AFFECT THE AREA LATE WEDNESDAY INTO
THURSDAY ALONG WITH A STRONGER COLD FRONT. THIS WILL BRING A GOOD
CHANCE OF SNOW TO THE HIGHER TERRAIN AND POSSIBLY AT LOWER
ELEVATIONS LATE WEDNESDAY NIGHT AND THURSDAY MORNING.

DRY WEATHER WILL RETURN FOR FRIDAY AND SATURDAY WITH A WARMING
TREND.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

SPOTTER ACTIVATION WILL NOT BE NEEDED TODAY OR TONIGHT.

GIMMESTAD/KALINA