Severe Thunderstorm Warning 5, NWS Boise, ID

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Boise ID
305 PM MDT SAT MAY 14 2016

.SHORT TERM...Upper low has come into Oregon and will move into
western Idaho toward morning and remain there Sunday before turning
south into Nevada Monday.  As of 2 PM MDT thunderstorms with quite a
bit of lightning were occurring in central Oregon as far east as
northern Harney County.  A cold front extended from near Pendleton,
OR, through Burns, OR.  As the front moves east thunderstorms will
spread into Baker County late today and this evening and into west
central Idaho this evening.  These storms will bring locally heavy
rain and small hail.  A flash flood watch is in effect for Baker
County this evening, and a flood watch is in effect for the west
central Idaho mountains and the Upper Weiser River area through
the night. See hydrology section below.  Farther south where the low
levels are drier, fewer thunderstorms are expected but these may
contain gusty winds.  On Sunday with the upper low overhead there
will be scattered to numerous showers throughout the CWA but temps
will be much cooler and fewer thunderstorms are expected.  Showers
and a slight chance of thunderstorms will continue Sunday evening
and gradually decrease Monday.  Monday will also be cool.  Gusty
northwest winds expected in the Snake River Basin Monday afternoon.

.LONG TERM...Monday night through Saturday...Showers dissipate in
wake of the exiting low Monday night and Tuesday. Weak wrap-around
flow will keep a slight chance of showers over the west-central ID
and eastern Boise mountains Tuesday afternoon...but otherwise dry
conditions across the area Tuesday into Wednesday. By Thursday
deep low pressure dropping out of the Gulf of Alaska will drive a
cold front through the region...increasing the chance of
precipitation. The low is projected to cut off over the Pacific
Northwest, bringing unsettled conditions and a return to below
normal temperatures into next weekend.

&&

.AVIATION...Generally VFR conditions with scattered shower
and thunderstorm development this afternoon and evening across
southeast Oregon and southwest Idaho. Variable and gusty outflow
winds to 35 kts will accompany showers and storms. Away from
convective activity, surface winds remain at or below 12 kts for
most sites. West-northwest winds will ramp up with a cold frontal
passage this evening. Southwest winds aloft of 25 kts through 10k
feet.

Weekend outlook...For Saturday night and Sunday, heavier
precipitation and low-VFR to MVFR ceilings will obscure mountains
north of the Snake River into Sunday. VFR elsewhere across southeast
Oregon and southwest Idaho with showers and thunderstorms increasing
in coverage Sunday afternoon. Winds surface and aloft remain north-
northwest 10-20 kt on Sunday.

&&

.HYDROLOGY...Showers and thunderstorms will spread across the
burn scars in Baker County, Oregon, late this afternoon and evening.
Heavy rains there could cause significant and rapid runoff.

Adams and Valley Counties will receive the heaviest rains tonight
and Sunday. Small rivers, creeks, and streams have been running high
with increasing temperatures and snowmelt.  Further rises due to
heavy rains are possible, although temperatures will cool greatly
Sunday and stay cool Monday.

&&

.BOI WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
ID...Flood watch through late tonight IDZ011-033.
OR...Flash flood watch until 11 PM PDT this evening ORZ062.

&&

www.weather.gov/Boise
www.facebook.com/NWSBoise
www.twitter.com/NWSBoise

SHORT TERM...LC
LONG TERM....DG/WH
AVIATION.....DG
HYDROLOGY....LC

SPECIAL WEATHER STATEMENT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BOISE ID
432 PM MDT SAT MAY 14 2016

IDZ014>016-030-142330-
SOUTHERN TWIN  FALLS COUNTY ID-UPPER TREASURE VALLEY ID-
SOUTHWEST HIGHLANDS ID-WESTERN MAGIC VALLEY ID-
432 PM MDT SAT MAY 14 2016

...SIGNIFICANT WEATHER ADVISORY FOR WEST CENTRAL TWIN FALLS AND
SOUTHEASTERN OWYHEE COUNTIES UNTIL 530 PM MDT...

AT 431 PM MDT...DOPPLER RADAR WAS TRACKING A PAIR OF STRONG
THUNDERSTORMS NEAR JUNIPER BUTTE...OR 26 MILES NORTH OF
JARBIDGE...MOVING NORTHEAST AT 30 MPH.

WIND GUSTS UP TO 50 MPH WILL BE POSSIBLE WITH THIS STORM.

THIS STRONG THUNDERSTORM WILL BE NEAR...
  JUNIPER RANCH AROUND 440 PM MDT.
  COONSKIN BUTTE...HORSE BUTTE...BLACK BUTTE AND CLOVER CREEK CROSSING
  AROUND 450 PM MDT.
  ROSEWORTH AND CROWS NEST BUTTE AROUND 500 PM MDT.
  CASTLEFORD AROUND 520 PM MDT.
  DEADMAN FLAT AROUND 530 PM MDT.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

FREQUENT CLOUD TO GROUND LIGHTNING IS OCCURRING WITH THIS STORM.
LIGHTNING CAN STRIKE 15 MILES AWAY FROM A THUNDERSTORM. SEEK A SAFE
SHELTER INSIDE A BUILDING OR VEHICLE.

WHEN SAFE TO DO SO...PLEASE RELAY STORM REPORTS TO THE NATIONAL
WEATHER SERVICE IN BOISE IDAHO VIA LOCAL LAW ENFORCEMENT...OR NWS
BOISE FACEBOOK AND TWITTER ACCOUNTS.

&&

LAT...LON 4226 11573 4286 11529 4244 11457 4199 11530
TIME...MOT...LOC 2231Z 217DEG 28KT 4226 11531

SP