Special Weather Statement, NWS Birmingham, AL

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Birmingham AL
540 AM CST Wed Nov 30 2016

.UPDATE...
For 12Z Aviation.

&&

.SHORT TERM...
Today and Tonight.

The 06Z BMX sounding indicates an unusually unstable air mass for
this time of day/year with SBCAPE of 1400 J/kg and MLCAPE of 730
J/kg. This combined with 0-1 shear of 33 kts, 0-6 shear of 64 kts,
and effective SRH of 300 m2/s2 will maintain a threat of tornadoes
throughout tonight and during the day on Wednesday as well.
Lifting of the dry layer aloft will also result in release of
potential instability and continue to steepen the mid-level lapse
rates. The strong shear and lack of strong upper- level forcing
has kept a true squall line from forming, with the convective line
extending from Louisiana to north AL remaining cellular in nature.
The HRRR indicates that this will continue. Both discrete
supercells ahead of the line and embedded supercells within the
line will continue to pose a threat for tornadoes. The tornado
watch was recently expanded to include Bibb, Jefferson, and Blount
counties, with a good chance of an additional watch beyond the
current 5AM expiration time including the areas further southeast. The
severe threat will continue to push southeastward, reaching the
I-20 corridor between about 3 and 6 AM and the I-85 corridor
between 8 AM and noon, exiting the farthest southeast counties
between 1 and 3 PM. Drier and cooler air will move in behind the
front this afternoon and evening.

32/Davis

.LONG TERM...
Thursday through Tuesday.

With this storm system to our east on Thursday, we will be back into
the high pressure realm for a couple of days, but no worries, the
dry spell will only last into the first half of the weekend. By
Friday afternoon a disturbance will begin to slide northward out of
the Gulf of Mexico and move into Louisiana by Saturday morning. This
disturbance will slide along and ahead of a cold front, working into
the western portion of Central Alabama by Saturday afternoon and
overspread the area during the day Sunday. Will have to monitor the
northward trends of the 60+ dewpoints as we get into Sunday
afternoon and Sunday evening. The 00Z GFS is indicating some mid 60s
in the southeast late Sunday afternoon, while the 12Z Euro keeps
dewpoints below 60 the entire time. However the 00Z Euro now brings
60+ dewpoints into the entire forecast area by Sunday evening, therefore
bringing a risk of severe weather into the area Sunday through
Monday evening. The dilemma here is the overall pattern. While we
remain in a very progressive pattern the GFS hangs the mid level
low back into the Four Corners area while the Euro now keeps the
trough moving and brings a potentially strong vort max into the
area by Monday morning. Will re-evaluate this tomorrow night and
see what if any additional changes need to be made.

We will remain fairly wet for the rest of the forecast as well as a
second trough and showers and storms move into the area Wednesday
night into Thursday. Again some differences in the overall timing
and strength will preclude any mention of severe with this system as
well, but there could be a small window here as well.

16

&&

.AVIATION...
12Z TAF Discussion.

While we have been waiting on the line to finally push through the
area overnight, we finally are seeing the push. Tried to time out
the line of thunderstorms in the locations. Most areas will clear
out this afternoon as the system exits the region.

16

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...

Showers and storms, some severe, will remain in the area through
this afternoon. Drier air should move into the area on Thursday and
Friday but moisture returns Saturday with another round of showers
expected Sunday through Tuesday. A third storm system will work into
the area by next Wednesday. So an overall wet pattern will be in
place for the next next 7 to 10 days.

16

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
Gadsden     68  38  56  30  57 / 100   0  10   0   0
Anniston    69  39  58  32  59 / 100   0  10   0   0
Birmingham  67  39  58  33  59 / 100   0  10   0   0
Tuscaloosa  67  39  59  32  61 /  90   0  10   0   0
Calera      69  39  58  33  60 / 100   0  10   0   0
Auburn      70  42  60  36  60 / 100  10  10   0   0
Montgomery  73  41  62  34  63 / 100   0  10   0   0
Troy        72  43  62  35  62 / 100  10  10   0   0

&&

.BMX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES/...
None.

&&

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PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BIRMINGHAM AL
653 AM CST WED NOV 30 2016

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

0518 AM     TSTM WND DMG     1 E LANEVILLE           32.52N 87.57W
11/30/2016                   HALE               AL   EMERGENCY MNGR

            TREES DOWN BLOCKING CR 12 BETWEEN FAUNSDALE
            AND NEWBERN. .

&&

TG

SPECIAL WEATHER STATEMENT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BIRMINGHAM AL
735 AM CST WED NOV 30 2016

ALZ023-030>032-039-301430-
TUSCALOOSA AL-GREENE AL-MARENGO AL-SUMTER AL-HALE AL-
735 AM CST WED NOV 30 2016

...SIGNIFICANT WEATHER ADVISORY FOR SOUTHEASTERN SUMTER...EASTERN
GREENE...HALE...SOUTHERN TUSCALOOSA AND MARENGO COUNTIES UNTIL 830 AM
CST...

AT 734 AM CST...DOPPLER RADAR WAS TRACKING STRONG THUNDERSTORMS ALONG
A LINE EXTENDING FROM NEAR LAKE LURLEEN STATE PARK TO NEAR
KINTERBISH. MOVEMENT WAS EAST AT 35 MPH.

WIND GUSTS OF 40 TO 50 MPH WILL BE POSSIBLE WITH THESE STORMS.

LOCATIONS IMPACTED INCLUDE...
TUSCALOOSA...NORTHPORT...DEMOPOLIS...EUTAW...GREENSBORO...LINDEN...
HOLT...JEFFERSON...MOUNDVILLE...LAKE VIEW...BROOKWOOD...COALING...
VANCE...WOODSTOCK...COKER...FORKLAND...THOMASTON...AKRON...NEWBERN
AND MYRTLEWOOD.

LAT...LON 3333 8765 3331 8717 3328 8707 3322 8710
      3319 8720 3313 8720 3313 8728 3301 8732
      3300 8742 3266 8747 3265 8753 3231 8752
      3231 8747 3225 8752 3216 8753 3218 8801
      3228 8802 3228 8794 3231 8793 3231 8825
TIME...MOT...LOC 1334Z 280DEG 30KT 3327 8764 3232 8821

89^GSATTERWHITE