Special Weather Statement, NWS Birmingham, AL

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Birmingham AL
537 PM CST Mon Nov 28 2016

.UPDATE...
For 00Z Aviation.

&&

.DISCUSSION...

There will be a lull in the convective activity during the daytime
hours on Tuesday as the overnight convection weakens and a low
level boundary stalls out over southeast Alabama. The next short
wave trof will dig rapidly southward into Texas on Tuesday and the
stalled out boundary will lift northward as a warm front. Without
any significant lifting mechanism in place on Tuesday, only
scattered showers and thunderstorms expected for areas along and
south of I-20. Upper lift will increase significantly along the MS
river Tuesday afternoon ahead of the advancing short wave trof.
Convective activity will increase rapidly Tuesday evening across
northwest Alabama along the warm front. Southerly flow in the warm
sector will increase as the temperature gradient increases along
the front. SPC has a large portion of central Alabama under a
slight risk for Tuesday night and Wednesday. All modes of severe
weather possible. Timing of severe threat is problematic due to
differences between GFS and ECMWF models in timing of advancing
short wave trof. The ECMWF model has been consistently slower than
the GFS, which would put the eastern counties under more of a
severe threat on Wednesday due to diurnal heating. Best guess is
that severe threat will begin around midnight Tuesday night over
the northwest counties and push slowly eastward through early
Wednesday afternoon. There could be some discrete cells over west
Alabama Tuesday evening, so we will leave the begin time at 6pm
Tuesday for now in our products.

The storm system will clear out of east Alabama Wednesday evening
with clearing skies by sunrise Thursday. Cooler and drier Thursday
and Friday with high level moisture increasing Friday night and
Saturday. The models have been trending towards a wetter pattern
over the weekend. Rain will likely spread into the area Saturday
night and especially on Sunday. The ECMWF and Canadian models are
the most aggressive with this system showing a surface low forming
in the northwest Gulf. This scenario would likely bring more rain
into central Alabama than currently forecast, but would like to
see a few more runs before making any big changes to forecast.

58/rose

&&

.AVIATION...
00Z TAF Discussion.

VFR conditions at all terminals to start, with a downward
trend to MVFR/localized IFR as ceilings and visibilities fall inside
a large rain shield and embedded squall line set to move through
Alabama tonight. Gusty surface winds will frequently exceed 25-30
knots this evening ahead of the squall line, higher within the
squall itself. Lingering low clouds are progged by forecast models
overnight, with bases rising a bit in the hours after sunrise. For
now, I've gone with trailing, post-storm MVFR categories and then
VFR but this will need to be revisited for the 06Z TAF issuance.

*A close tabs on wind and squall timing will be necessary this
 evening for any amendments.

Southerly breeziness (to a lesser extent) is expected
overnight and into Tuesday. Some isolated showers/a storm are
possible on Tuesday, but have left mentions out at this time;
however, rain/storm chances become more certain toward and beyond
the end of this TAF period.

89^GSatterwhite

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...

Strong southerly flow will bring up humidity levels this afternoon
and tonight. Rain, heavy at times, will overspread central Alabama
tonight and early Tuesday. Beneficial rainfall is expected through
Wednesday with two waves of showers and storms.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
Gadsden     56  75  59  64  39 /  90  20  90 100  10
Anniston    58  75  62  66  42 /  90  40  60 100  10
Birmingham  57  77  63  64  41 /  90  20 100  90  10
Tuscaloosa  56  79  61  62  39 /  90  20 100  90  10
Calera      58  77  62  66  41 /  90  20  90 100  10
Auburn      64  74  65  69  46 /  80  70  30  80  30
Montgomery  64  79  67  72  44 /  80  60  40  80  20
Troy        66  77  65  72  44 /  80  70  30  80  20

&&

.BMX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES/...
Wind Advisory until midnight CST tonight for the following
counties: Autauga...Barbour...Bibb...Blount...Bullock...
Calhoun...Chambers...Cherokee...Chilton...Clay...Cleburne...
Coosa...Dallas...Elmore...Etowah...Fayette...Greene...Hale...
Jefferson...Lamar...Lee...Lowndes...Macon...Marengo...Marion...
Montgomery...Perry...Pickens...Pike...Randolph...Russell...
Shelby...St. Clair...Sumter...Talladega...Tallapoosa...
Tuscaloosa...Walker...Winston.

&&

HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BIRMINGHAM AL
139 PM CST MON NOV 28 2016

ALZ011>015-017>050-292245-
MARION-LAMAR-FAYETTE-WINSTON-WALKER-BLOUNT-ETOWAH-CALHOUN-CHEROKEE-
CLEBURNE-PICKENS-TUSCALOOSA-JEFFERSON-SHELBY-ST. CLAIR-TALLADEGA-
CLAY-RANDOLPH-SUMTER-GREENE-HALE-PERRY-BIBB-CHILTON-COOSA-TALLAPOOSA-
CHAMBERS-MARENGO-DALLAS-AUTAUGA-LOWNDES-ELMORE-MONTGOMERY-MACON-
BULLOCK-LEE-RUSSELL-PIKE-BARBOUR-
139 PM CST MON NOV 28 2016

THIS HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK IS FOR THE COUNTIES SERVED BY THE
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE OFFICE IN BIRMINGHAM.

.DAY ONE...THROUGH TONIGHT.

THERE IS A LIMITED RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS, INCLUDING WIND
GUSTS UP TO 60 MPH AND A FEW BRIEF TORNADOES. THE THREAT AREA IS
GENERALLY WEST OF A LINE FROM ONEONTA TO MARION. THE MAIN TIMING
FOR THIS THREAT IS FROM 6 PM THROUGH 12 AM.

WINDY CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED ACROSS ALL OF CENTRAL ALABAMA
THROUGH TONIGHT, WITH A POTENTIAL FOR SUSTAINED WINDS OF 20 TO 30 MPH
AND HIGHER GUSTS. THESE WINDS COULD BRING DOWN TREE BRANCHES OR
SMALL TREES THAT HAVE BEEN WEAKENED BY THE ONGOING DROUGHT.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...TUESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY.

THERE IS A LIMITED RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS, INCLUDING WIND
GUSTS UP TO 60 MPH, QUARTER SIZE HAIL AND A FEW BRIEF TORNADOES.
ALL OF CENTRAL ALABAMA IS INCLUDED IN THIS EVENT. THE MAIN TIMING
WILL BE TUESDAY EVENING THROUGH WEDNESDAY MORNING.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

ACTIVATION OF STORM SPOTTERS AND EMERGENCY MANAGEMENT MAY BE
NEEDED TONIGHT AND AGAIN TUESDAY NIGHT INTO WEDNESDAY.

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SPECIAL WEATHER STATEMENT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BIRMINGHAM AL
610 PM CST MON NOV 28 2016

ALZ017-023-290115-
TUSCALOOSA AL-BLOUNT AL-
610 PM CST MON NOV 28 2016

...SIGNIFICANT WEATHER ADVISORY FOR WEST CENTRAL BLOUNT AND
TUSCALOOSA COUNTIES UNTIL 715 PM CST...

AT 610 PM CST...DOPPLER RADAR WAS TRACKING STRONG THUNDERSTORMS ALONG
A LINE EXTENDING FROM NEAR ASHCRAFT CORNER TO NEAR ALICEVILLE.
MOVEMENT WAS NORTHEAST AT 55 MPH.

WIND GUSTS UP TO 50 MPH WILL BE POSSIBLE WITH THESE STORMS.

LOCATIONS IMPACTED INCLUDE...
TUSCALOOSA...NORTHPORT...SUMITON...DORA...HOLT...BROOKWOOD...COKER...
TUSCALOOSA AMPHITHEATER...BINION CREEK LANDING...BRYANT DENNY
STADIUM...ARKADELPHIA...LAKE LURLEEN STATE PARK...UNIVERSITY MALL...
DEERLICK CREEK CAMPGROUNDS...BANKHEAD LOCK AND DAM...TUSCALOOSA
REGIONAL AIRPORT...SAMANTHA...MCFARLAND MALL...GORGAS STEAM PLANT AND
WINDHAM SPRINGS.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

TORRENTIAL RAINFALL IS ALSO OCCURRING WITH THESE STORMS...AND MAY
LEAD TO LOCALIZED FLOODING. DO NOT DRIVE YOUR VEHICLE THROUGH
FLOODED ROADWAYS.

&&

LAT...LON 3352 8784 3352 8767 3358 8767 3358 8763
      3361 8763 3359 8732 3384 8696 3387 8696
      3387 8692 3392 8692 3397 8678 3384 8688
      3358 8732 3352 8732 3350 8726 3349 8733
      3347 8734 3339 8723 3318 8739 3305 8783
TIME...MOT...LOC 0010Z 246DEG 46KT 3353 8783 3306 8813

32/DAVIS

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