Special Weather Statement, NWS Birmingham, AL

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Birmingham AL
637 PM CDT FRI AUG 5 2016

.UPDATE...
For 00Z Aviation.

&&

.DISCUSSION...

Lots of scattered convection out there this afternoon, with storms
capable of producing gusty winds with some dry air aloft in the
12z KBMX sounding from this morning. We've expanded the Heat
Advisory farther eastward with observations coming in of dewpoints
well up into the middle 70s and temperatures in the mid 90s. The
dewpoint has not mixed out at all this afternoon, and it's
downright oppressive for most locations, except if you happen to
be underneath a cooling thunderstorm. Convection will be
diurnally driven once again, and diminish in coverage through this
evening.

The weather pattern across the southeast will be primarily driven
by the upper ridge off to our west over the next few days.
Northerly to northwesterly flow at 500mb will continue, with
upper level shortwave impulses expected to move southward through
Central Alabama. The NAM is presenting multiple disturbances moving
into Alabama Saturday morning, while the GFS is showing an MCS
moving in Saturday Evening. As is always the case with this type
of setup, we'll likely have good coverage of showers and storms,
but confidence in what time disturbances arrive and placement of
storms remain in question. High chance PoPs will remain in the
forecast at this time for Saturday, but we'll be monitoring
conditions upstream for any organized convective activity.

We may need to issue another Heat Advisory for Saturday Afternoon,
depending on convective trends. If we can get enough heating
before more widespread storms develop, we'll likely reach criteria
across our western and southern counties once again.

A surface front will push southward into the Tennessee Valley
during the day on Sunday. Relatively drier air could push
southward to limit convection a bit across our northern counties,
but scattered to numerous storms will remain possible elsewhere
across Central Alabama. Looking into next week, guidance trends
continue to point toward the low pressure system across the Big
Bend of Florida moving west or northwest with time. This will be
in response to the building upper ridge over the western Atlantic.
We could be looking at a prolonged period of unsettled weather,
which will certainly mean a break from the heat that we're
currently experiencing. The latest run of the ECMWF has the
system very slowly moving northwest and much stronger than the
GFS. Therefore, confidence in the amount of rainfall that we may
see is low right now. However, numerous to widespread showers and
storms with highs in the 80s are likely as we look forward from
Tuesday perhaps all the way through the end of next week.
Hopefully with better guidance agreement over the next few days,
and depending on the strength of the system, we can better
determine where areas of heavy rainfall may set up across our CWA.
We could certainly use some beneficial rainfall, and hopefully
we'll be able to improve our current drought conditions before all
is said and done.

56/GDG

&&

.AVIATION...
00Z TAF Discussion.

Short-term concern will be prevailing VCTS for TCL until 01Z at
latest. Expect convective activity to gradually diminish after
sunset. Overnight look for VFR conditions to prevail followed by
some expected drops in CIG's at ASN/ANB/TCL/TOI/MGM along with VIS
to 5SM at TOI toward 10Z Saturday. CIG's and VIS will recover
after sunrise with VFR conditions. Expect TSRA risk to begin
around 18Z at northern sites, shifting south with time to MGM/TOI
around 20Z.

05

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...

Generally scattered showers and thunderstorms are expected through
the weekend with highs in the lower to middle 90s. Surface winds
will be less than 10 mph. Since surface dew points are high, there
are no fire weather concerns at this time.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
Gadsden     71  93  74  92  72 /  20  50  50  40  20
Anniston    72  93  76  92  73 /  20  40  40  50  20
Birmingham  76  94  76  93  75 /  20  50  50  50  20
Tuscaloosa  75  96  76  93  74 /  20  50  50  50  20
Calera      74  94  76  93  74 /  20  40  40  50  30
Auburn      73  94  75  93  73 /  30  40  40  50  30
Montgomery  75  97  76  94  75 /  30  40  40  50  30
Troy        72  94  74  92  72 /  30  40  40  50  40

&&

.BMX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
Heat Advisory until 9 PM CDT this evening For the following
counties: Autauga...Barbour...Bibb...Blount...Bullock...
Chilton...Clay...Coosa...Dallas...Elmore...Fayette...Greene...
Hale...Jefferson...Lamar...Lowndes...Macon...Marengo...Marion...
Montgomery...Perry...Pickens...Pike...Russell...Shelby...St.
Clair...Sumter...Talladega...Tallapoosa...Tuscaloosa...Walker...
Winston.

&&

HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BIRMINGHAM AL
112 PM CDT FRI AUG 5 2016

ALZ011>015-017>050-062115-
MARION-LAMAR-FAYETTE-WINSTON-WALKER-BLOUNT-ETOWAH-CALHOUN-CHEROKEE-
CLEBURNE-PICKENS-TUSCALOOSA-JEFFERSON-SHELBY-ST. CLAIR-TALLADEGA-
CLAY-RANDOLPH-SUMTER-GREENE-HALE-PERRY-BIBB-CHILTON-COOSA-TALLAPOOSA-
CHAMBERS-MARENGO-DALLAS-AUTAUGA-LOWNDES-ELMORE-MONTGOMERY-MACON-
BULLOCK-LEE-RUSSELL-PIKE-BARBOUR-
112 PM CDT FRI AUG 5 2016

THIS HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK IS FOR THE COUNTIES SERVED BY THE
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE OFFICE IN BIRMINGHAM.

.DAY ONE...OUTLOOK THROUGH TONIGHT.

HEAT INDICES WILL RANGE FROM 105 TO 108 DEGREES ACROSS MUCH OF
CENTRAL ALABAMA THIS AFTERNOON AND EARLY EVENING. THE AREA OF
CONCERN IS ROUGHLY ALONG AND WEST OF A LINE FROM BLOUNTSVILLE
TO ASHLAND TO CLAYTON.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...SATURDAY THROUGH THURSDAY.

THERE IS A CHANCE THAT HEAT INDICES REACH 105 DEGREES OR HIGHER
SATURDAY AND SUNDAY AFTERNOONS...WITH PERHAPS A BETTER CHANCE ON
SATURDAY. THE MAIN AREA OF CONCERN IS WEST OF A LINE FROM DOUBLE
SPRINGS TO BIRMINGHAM TO PHENIX CITY.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

ACTIVATION OF STORM SPOTTERS AND EMERGENCY MANAGEMENT IS NOT
EXPECTED.

SPECIAL WEATHER STATEMENT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BIRMINGHAM AL
312 PM CDT FRI AUG 5 2016

ALZ034-052100-
BIBB AL-
312 PM CDT FRI AUG 5 2016

...SIGNIFICANT WEATHER ADVISORY FOR SOUTHEASTERN BIBB COUNTY UNTIL
400 PM CDT...

AT 312 PM CDT...DOPPLER RADAR WAS TRACKING A STRONG THUNDERSTORM OVER
CENTREVILLE...MOVING SOUTH AT 20 MPH.

WINDS IN EXCESS OF 40 MPH WILL BE POSSIBLE WITH THIS STORM.

LOCATIONS IMPACTED INCLUDE...
BRENT...CENTREVILLE...WEST BLOCTON...TALLADEGA NATIONAL FOREST...WEST
CENTREVILLE...EOLINE...BIBB COUNTY AIRPORT...SIX MILE AND TRIO.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

FREQUENT CLOUD TO GROUND LIGHTNING IS OCCURRING WITH THIS STORM.
LIGHTNING CAN STRIKE 10 MILES AWAY FROM A THUNDERSTORM. SEEK A SAFE
SHELTER INSIDE A BUILDING OR VEHICLE.

&&

LAT...LON 3312 8719 3308 8696 3284 8698 3284 8731
TIME...MOT...LOC 2012Z 013DEG 22KT 3297 8712

SPECIAL WEATHER STATEMENT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BIRMINGHAM AL
654 PM CDT FRI AUG 5 2016

ALZ038-047-060030-
CHAMBERS AL-LEE AL-
654 PM CDT FRI AUG 5 2016

...SIGNIFICANT WEATHER ADVISORY FOR NORTHWESTERN LEE AND SOUTHWESTERN
CHAMBERS COUNTIES UNTIL 730 PM CDT...

AT 654 PM CDT...DOPPLER RADAR WAS TRACKING A STRONG THUNDERSTORM NEAR
STURKIE...OR 8 MILES EAST OF CAMP HILL...MOVING SOUTHWEST AT 10 MPH.

WINDS IN EXCESS OF 40 MPH WILL BE POSSIBLE WITH THIS STORM.

LOCATIONS IMPACTED INCLUDE...
AUBURN...OPELIKA...WAVERLY...STURKIE...OAK BOWERY AND ROBERT G. PITTS
AIRPORT.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

TORRENTIAL RAINFALL IS ALSO OCCURRING WITH THIS STORM...AND MAY LEAD
TO LOCALIZED FLOODING. DO NOT DRIVE YOUR VEHICLE THROUGH FLOODED
ROADWAYS.

FREQUENT CLOUD TO GROUND LIGHTNING IS OCCURRING WITH THIS STORM.
LIGHTNING CAN STRIKE 10 MILES AWAY FROM A THUNDERSTORM. SEEK A SAFE
SHELTER INSIDE A BUILDING OR VEHICLE.

&&

LAT...LON 3261 8542 3269 8562 3273 8561 3273 8559
      3278 8559 3286 8557 3278 8537
TIME...MOT...LOC 2354Z 025DEG 9KT 3276 8551

87/GRANTHAM

SPECIAL WEATHER STATEMENT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BIRMINGHAM AL
714 PM CDT FRI AUG 5 2016

ALZ037-060045-
TALLAPOOSA AL-
714 PM CDT FRI AUG 5 2016

...SIGNIFICANT WEATHER ADVISORY FOR EAST CENTRAL TALLAPOOSA COUNTY
UNTIL 745 PM CDT...

AT 714 PM CDT...DOPPLER RADAR WAS TRACKING A STRONG THUNDERSTORM NEAR
TRAMMEL CROSSROADS...OR 11 MILES NORTH OF CAMP HILL...MOVING SOUTH AT
10 MPH.

WINDS IN EXCESS OF 40 MPH WILL BE POSSIBLE WITH THIS STORM.

THIS STORM WILL REMAIN OVER MAINLY RURAL AREAS OF EAST CENTRAL
TALLAPOOSA COUNTY.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

TORRENTIAL RAINFALL IS ALSO OCCURRING WITH THIS STORM...AND MAY LEAD
TO LOCALIZED FLOODING. DO NOT DRIVE YOUR VEHICLE THROUGH FLOODED
ROADWAYS.

FREQUENT CLOUD TO GROUND LIGHTNING IS OCCURRING WITH THIS STORM.
LIGHTNING CAN STRIKE 10 MILES AWAY FROM A THUNDERSTORM. SEEK A SAFE
SHELTER INSIDE A BUILDING OR VEHICLE.

&&

LAT...LON 3284 8572 3301 8563 3301 8559 3286 8559
TIME...MOT...LOC 0014Z 015DEG 8KT 3296 8562

87/GRANTHAM