Special Weather Statement, NWS Birmingham, AL

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Birmingham AL
658 PM CDT THU JUL 21 2016

.UPDATE...
For 00Z Aviation.

&&

.SHORT TERM...
through Tonight.

Isolated to scattered showers and storms will continue this
afternoon with activity gradually diminishing through the evening
hours. Activity will generally move to the south as a weak
shortwave pushes southward along the eastern edge of the
progressing upper level ridge. Temperatures tonight will remain
muggy, with lows in the low to mid 70s.

.LONG TERM...
Friday through Wednesday.

Impacts through this coming weekend will be the heat as the upper
level ridge axis shifts southward over the area. Expect heat
indices above 105F for most of the area at some point during the
afternoon hours. A few locations in the northeastern portion of
the area will be close to meeting criteria. Given the cumulative
effects of heat, have decided to go ahead and carry the heat
advisory for all of Central Alabama through Saturday evening.

Confidence on heat indices Sunday afternoon is not as high, as
slightly higher shower/storm coverage is possible as a weak upper
level impulse rotates around the weakening ridge. Don't get me
wrong, it will still be hot and muggy outside with conditions
similar to Saturday. Greater uncertainty in heat advisory
conditions versus rain and cloud coverage just precludes extending
the heat advisory through Sunday at this time.

The upper level ridge continues to break down through early next
week, as a weak trough crossing the Great Lakes attempts to
amplify southward into the Tennessee Valley and a weak upper level
disturbance pushes westward along the northern Gulf Coast.
Although a front making this far south this time of year is
unlikely, the increase in forcing aloft and moisture will result
in rain chances slightly above climo.

14

&&

.AVIATION...
00Z TAF Discussion.

Generally a VFR forecast for central Alabama terminals. A few
thunderstorms remain on radar early this evening near TOI/BHM.
Have mention for an hour or so as these convective areas decrease
greatly after sunset. Will monitor areas near MGM/TOI for
prolonged activity near boundaries and deeper moisture.

Otherwise, persistence is the way to go. It appears that the area
will remain near the eastern periphery of a sprawling upper ridge.
Mean relative humidity appears to be lower tomorrow and more
limited to areas south. But thunderstorms may pop up anywhere.
Northern areas may receive activity that will be relatively
short-lived.

Not much in the way of fog the past several nights except at
limited spots. Will re-evaluate where rain fell today and cloud
cover tonight for possible inclusion next forecast.

75

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...

Isolated to scattered showers or thunderstorms are expected over the
next few days with highs in the mid to upper 90s. Heat indices
will be near or above Heat Advisory criteria through the weekend.
Slightly better rain chances and temperatures a couple of degrees
lower are possible by Tuesday to Wednesday of next week as the
upper ridge breaks down. Critical fire weather thresholds are not
expected to be met with no watches or warnings expected.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
Gadsden     72  95  73  96  74 /  20  20  20  30  20
Anniston    73  94  74  95  75 /  30  30  20  30  20
Birmingham  76  96  76  95  76 /  20  30  20  20  20
Tuscaloosa  75  97  75  97  75 /  20  30  20  20  20
Calera      74  95  75  95  75 /  30  30  20  20  20
Auburn      74  95  75  95  75 /  40  30  20  20  20
Montgomery  76  96  75  97  76 /  40  30  20  20  20
Troy        73  94  73  95  74 /  40  30  20  20  20

&&

.BMX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
Heat Advisory until 9 PM CDT this evening For the following
counties: Autauga...Barbour...Bibb...Bullock...Chambers...
Chilton...Coosa...Dallas...Elmore...Fayette...Greene...Hale...
Jefferson...Lamar...Lee...Lowndes...Macon...Marengo...Marion...
Montgomery...Perry...Pickens...Pike...Russell...Shelby...
Sumter...Tallapoosa...Tuscaloosa...Walker...Winston.

Heat Advisory from 11 AM Friday to 9 PM CDT Saturday For all of
Central Alabama.

&&

HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BIRMINGHAM AL
1059 AM CDT THU JUL 21 2016

ALZ011>015-017>050-221900-
MARION-LAMAR-FAYETTE-WINSTON-WALKER-BLOUNT-ETOWAH-CALHOUN-CHEROKEE-
CLEBURNE-PICKENS-TUSCALOOSA-JEFFERSON-SHELBY-ST. CLAIR-TALLADEGA-
CLAY-RANDOLPH-SUMTER-GREENE-HALE-PERRY-BIBB-CHILTON-COOSA-TALLAPOOSA-
CHAMBERS-MARENGO-DALLAS-AUTAUGA-LOWNDES-ELMORE-MONTGOMERY-MACON-
BULLOCK-LEE-RUSSELL-PIKE-BARBOUR-
1059 AM CDT THU JUL 21 2016

THIS HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK IS FOR THE COUNTIES SERVED BY THE
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE OFFICE IN BIRMINGHAM.

.DAY ONE...OUTLOOK THROUGH TONIGHT.

HEAT INDICES ARE FORECAST TO BE ABOVE 105 DEGREES THIS AFTERNOON
FOR PORTIONS OF SOUTH AND WEST CENTRAL ALABAMA. THOSE WHO MUST BE
OUTSIDE SHOULD TAKE PROPER SAFETY PRECAUTIONS. DRINK PLENTY OF
WATER AND TAKE FREQUENT BREAKS.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...FRIDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY.

DAYTIME TEMPERATURES ARE FORECAST TO CLIMB INTO THE MIDDLE TO
UPPER 90S THROUGH THE END OF THE WEEK AND INTO THE WEEKEND. HEAT
INDICES COULD REACH 105 DEGREES OR HIGHER EACH AFTERNOON...
ESPECIALLY ACROSS THE SOUTHERN AND WESTERN PORTIONS OF CENTRAL
ALABAMA.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

ACTIVATION OF STORM SPOTTERS AND EMERGENCY MANAGEMENT IS NOT
EXPECTED AT THIS TIME.

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