Special Weather Statement, NWS Birmingham, AL

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Birmingham AL
639 PM CDT THU JUL 14 2016

.UPDATE...
Aviation Discussion.

&&

.SHORT TERM...
Tonight through Friday night.

Two areas of concern for the short term. The first being our large
area of showers and thunderstorms that has been moving eastward
across Tennessee and across the northern portions of Alabama where
some strong winds, lots of lightning, heavy rain, and at times
marginal hail have been noted. A second area of more scattered
showers and thunderstorms exists across the south and west
central portions of the state being enhanced by a broad upper low
pressure system across the gulf coast. Think that this activity
should decrease as we lose daytime heating, but models are
indicating another possible convective system may move across the
northern portions of the area, but with some uncertainty, have
kept some pops in late and done a slow ramp back up of pops
before daybreak on Friday. Will reserve the higher pops for during
the day on Friday as a surface low pressure system moves out of
the Texas Panhandle and across Oklahoma/Arkansas and is expected
to drag a front closer to Alabama on during the day Friday with
with lots of available moisture available ahead of it.

08

.LONG TERM...
Saturday through Wednesday.

Weak mid/upper troughing will persist on Saturday and will lead to
enhanced rain chances for the area. By Sunday, the upper ridge to
our west begins to strengthen over the Central Plains and heights
start to increase in our neck of the woods, especially into Monday.
Rain chances will return to climatological norms with the best
chances in the E/SE along the eastern periphery of the ridge.
Convection will primarily be diurnally driven during this time. As
we look into the extended, models try to bring a frontal boundary
southward into the forecast area in the Tue/Wed time frame.
Scattered convection, at least, can be expected both days, and a few
showers/storms may linger into the overnight period with the front
still in the vicinity.

Temperatures will remain just above normal thru the period, with
highs in the low/mid 90s. With dew points remaining in the 70s, heat
index values could approach or exceed 105 degrees early next week.

19

&&

.AVIATION...
00Z TAF Discussion.

TS activity along several boundaries will continue for several hours
this evening. Strong winds and reduced vis are likely with any
activity. Have included prevailing TSRA or VCTS depending on
terminals' proximity to activity and current radar trends. Reduced
vis due to fog will be possible early Friday morning, mainly at
locations that received rainfall today. Will lead with MVFR
conditions, with the possibility of trending downward.

TS potentially develop earlier Friday morning than previous days
along a lingering boundary, aided by upper level trough.

14

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...

Periods of showers and thunderstorms will continue off and on
through the next week, with the highest chances mainly now through
late Friday. No critical fire weather concerns with humid
conditions persisting.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
Gadsden     72  89  70  89  71 /  40  70  60  50  30
Anniston    72  89  71  88  71 /  40  60  60  50  30
Birmingham  75  89  73  89  74 /  40  70  60  50  30
Tuscaloosa  74  90  73  90  73 /  50  70  60  50  20
Calera      73  89  73  89  73 /  40  60  60  50  30
Auburn      74  89  73  90  73 /  40  60  60  50  30
Montgomery  74  93  74  92  74 /  40  60  60  50  30
Troy        73  90  72  91  72 /  40  60  50  50  30

&&

.BMX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
None.

&&

HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BIRMINGHAM AL
510 PM CDT THU JUL 14 2016

ALZ011>015-017>050-160115-
MARION-LAMAR-FAYETTE-WINSTON-WALKER-BLOUNT-ETOWAH-CALHOUN-CHEROKEE-
CLEBURNE-PICKENS-TUSCALOOSA-JEFFERSON-SHELBY-ST. CLAIR-TALLADEGA-
CLAY-RANDOLPH-SUMTER-GREENE-HALE-PERRY-BIBB-CHILTON-COOSA-TALLAPOOSA-
CHAMBERS-MARENGO-DALLAS-AUTAUGA-LOWNDES-ELMORE-MONTGOMERY-MACON-
BULLOCK-LEE-RUSSELL-PIKE-BARBOUR-
510 PM CDT THU JUL 14 2016

THIS HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK IS FOR THE COUNTIES SERVED BY THE
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE OFFICE IN BIRMINGHAM.

.DAY ONE...OUTLOOK THROUGH TONIGHT.

ISOLATED SEVERE STORMS ARE POSSIBLE ACROSS NORTHEAST CENTRAL
ALABAMA THROUGH 8 PM. THE MAIN THREATS WILL BE DAMAGING WIND
GUSTS UP TO 60 MPH, LARGE HAIL, AND AREAS OF LOCALLY HEAVY
RAINFALL THAT COULD LEAD TO MINOR FLOODING.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...FRIDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY.

DAYTIME TEMPERATURES ARE FORECAST TO CLIMB INTO THE MIDDLE TO
UPPER 90S EARLY NEXT WEEK AS A STRONG HIGH PRESSURE SYSTEM MOVES
CLOSER TO ALABAMA. HEAT INDICES COULD REACH 105 DEGREES OR HIGHER
EARLY NEXT WEEK.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

ACTIVATION OF STORM SPOTTERS AND EMERGENCY MANAGEMENT MAY BE
NECESSARY THIS EVENING.

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BIRMINGHAM AL
715 PM CDT THU JUL 14 2016

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

0555 PM     TSTM WND DMG     2 NE ASHLAND            33.30N 85.81W
07/14/2016                   CLAY               AL   EMERGENCY MNGR

            TREES REPORTED DOWN ALONG SKYVIEW DRIVE.

&&

GSATTERW

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BIRMINGHAM AL
716 PM CDT THU JUL 14 2016

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

0551 PM     TSTM WND DMG     6 NW ASHLAND            33.34N 85.91W
07/14/2016                   CLAY               AL   EMERGENCY MNGR

            A FEW TREES REPORTED DOWN ALONG HANGING ROCK ROAD.

&&

GSATTERW

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BIRMINGHAM AL
719 PM CDT THU JUL 14 2016

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

0555 PM     TSTM WND DMG     3 NW ASHLAND            33.31N 85.88W
07/14/2016                   CLAY               AL   EMERGENCY MNGR

            TREES REPORTED DOWN ALONG MOUNTAIN VIEW ROAD.

&&

GSATTERW

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BIRMINGHAM AL
721 PM CDT THU JUL 14 2016

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

0559 PM     TSTM WND DMG     9 ESE ASHLAND           33.23N 85.69W
07/14/2016                   CLAY               AL   EMERGENCY MNGR

            TREE DOWN ALONG CORINTH ROAD.

&&

GSATTERW

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