Special Weather Statement, NWS Birmingham, AL

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Birmingham AL
1233 PM CDT TUE JUL 12 2016

.DISCUSSION...

Taking a look at surface analysis this morning, we're in a very
similar setup as we observed yesterday. Surface high pressure
remains off to our southeast and has strengthened a bit from
yesterday on the order of about 1MB, as reflected on surface obs.
Several boundaries were noted yet again this morning on visible
satellite, with a stationary boundary stretching from Evergreen
northward to near Alexander City. Other boundaries were noted
moving eastward out of East Mississippi. We're most likely going
to have a differential heat boundary from where the fog and low
clouds set up this morning, stretching from Selma to Montgomery to
Tuskegee.

The 12z KBMX sounding this morning reflected the increased surface
ridging, and a more pronounced cap at 850MB as compared to the
sounding from 12 hours ago. However, we should be able to break
that cap this afternoon, and we're already seeing scattered shower
development over the southern half of Central Alabama. Numerous
storms have also developed over southern Alabama and the Florida
Panhandle from seabreeze interactions, and those boundaries have
started to race northward. We should easily see second and third
generation convection form from those boundaries in the 4000 J/KG
of SBCAPES based on RAP analysis. As seabreeze boundary
convection continues pushing northward in the southerly to
southwesterly flow at the surface, we should see second and third
generation convection from outflow boundaries increase shower and
storm formation across the southern half of Central Alabama. Also,
like we saw yesterday, we'll have to watch closely for gusty
winds, with more dry air aloft in the sounding today than
yesterday. Any storm will be capable of producing wind gusts of 40
to 50mph and an isolated severe storm also can't be ruled out.

So, based on these thoughts, PoPs have been increased across the
southern half of the CWA to numerous for this afternoon. For the
rest of the area, have continued with scattered PoPs for now.
Temperatures are on track for this afternoon, and have not
adjusted highs for today too much based on hourly trends.

56/GDG

&&

.AVIATION...
18Z TAF Discussion.

Morning fog, most prevalent across the southeast counties,
dissipated by 15Z with residual low clouds mixing out before 17Z.
Cumulus field has quickly formed across much of the CWA and expect
isolated to scattered convection, most numerous south of the I-20/59
corridor this afternoon. Mentioning VCTS between 18Z and 21Z at
all terminals from SW to NE. Outside of TSRA, VFR conditions
expected through tonight before lower CIGS and reduced visibility
return early on Thursday.

05

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...

Temperatures will be near or slightly above normal through the week
with a chance of mainly afternoon thunderstorms each day. No fire
weather concerns.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
Gadsden     71  92  73  93  73 /  30  30  20  30  20
Anniston    72  92  73  92  74 /  30  30  20  30  20
Birmingham  75  93  76  93  76 /  30  20  20  30  20
Tuscaloosa  74  94  75  95  75 /  20  20  10  30  20
Calera      73  93  75  93  74 /  20  20  10  30  20
Auburn      74  92  75  93  75 /  20  30  20  30  20
Montgomery  74  95  75  95  75 /  20  20  10  30  20
Troy        73  95  74  94  74 /  20  20  10  30  20

&&

.BMX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
None.

&&

HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BIRMINGHAM AL
901 AM CDT TUE JUL 12 2016

ALZ011>015-017>050-131715-
MARION-LAMAR-FAYETTE-WINSTON-WALKER-BLOUNT-ETOWAH-CALHOUN-CHEROKEE-
CLEBURNE-PICKENS-TUSCALOOSA-JEFFERSON-SHELBY-ST. CLAIR-TALLADEGA-
CLAY-RANDOLPH-SUMTER-GREENE-HALE-PERRY-BIBB-CHILTON-COOSA-TALLAPOOSA-
CHAMBERS-MARENGO-DALLAS-AUTAUGA-LOWNDES-ELMORE-MONTGOMERY-MACON-
BULLOCK-LEE-RUSSELL-PIKE-BARBOUR-
901 AM CDT TUE JUL 12 2016

THIS HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK IS FOR THE COUNTIES SERVED BY THE
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE OFFICE IN BIRMINGHAM.

.DAY ONE...OUTLOOK THROUGH TONIGHT.

NO HAZARDOUS WEATHER IS EXPECTED AT THIS TIME.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...WEDNESDAY THROUGH MONDAY.

NO HAZARDOUS WEATHER IS EXPECTED AT THIS TIME.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

ACTIVATION OF STORM SPOTTERS AND EMERGENCY MANAGEMENT IS NOT
EXPECTED AT THIS TIME.

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