Special Weather Statement, NWS Birmingham, AL

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Birmingham AL
1123 AM CDT MON JUL 11 2016

.UPDATE...
Morning Update.

&&

.DISCUSSION...

Several features out the window this morning to talk about in
relation to today's forecast. On the synoptic scale, Central
Alabama is currently in a stagnant pattern with a surface ridge
centered off to our southeast and a weak upper trough/upper low
off to our northwest near Memphis. Southwesterly flow is
persistent throughout the KBMX 12Z sounding profile this morning
through 300MB, with very weak winds aloft. There isn't as much of
a cap at 850MB that was present at this time yesterday, which may
help to contribute to shower and thunderstorm development a bit
earlier today.

On the mesoscale, we have a lot currently ongoing. Mesoscale
boundaries were noted on visible/IR satellite just south of the
I-20 corridor and along the I-85 corridor. Also, lower clouds and
fog this morning were present along the I-20 corridor and
stretching from Selma northeast to Alexander City. Those will no
doubt create a differential heat boundary that may trigger
convection this afternoon. In fact, at this hour Tuscaloosa is
still sitting at 74 degrees with low overcast skies. What looks to
be an MCV on visible satellite is currently spinning across
Central Mississippi, just west of Starkville. We'll see what
impact that feature may have on convective activity across our
northwest counties later on this afternoon.

So, in terms of the forecast, have kept high chance PoPs across
the northwest counties and have raised PoPs across the southeast
counties due to the outflow boundary identified and additional
deep moisture and instability present for those locations. In
fact, as of this writing, we're already seeing shower development
south of I-85. RAP analysis is indicating 3000-4000J/KG of SBCAPE
this morning across those areas, along with PWATS approaching 2
inches. We may end of having the most coverage across those areas
before all is said and done. Of course, we'll have to watch out
for storms with gusty winds, as is the case for all summer
thunderstorms, especially across our southeast counties.

Temperatures appear to be on track at this time, but have
adjusted diurnal trends due to the cloud cover that was in place
earlier this morning. Overall, temperatures should be a bit
"cooler" but still hot and humid with upper 80s and lower 90s
expected by late this afternoon.

56/GDG

&&

.AVIATION...
12Z TAF Discussion.

Some fog and low clouds are visible this morning at a few sites.
Watching a batch of low clouds in the southwest trying to moves
north and east toward TCL, EET, and MGM. Will be close in regards
to making it into these sites, but with fairly close proximity
went ahead and included at these three. Meanwhile, low clouds/fog
will be exiting ANB shortly and already beginning to see some
improvement over the past 30 minutes. Another round of storms are
possible yet again this afternoon, with most of ending by 03Z.
Have included VCTS as activity will be scattered and difficult to
pinpoint exact timing and location.

16

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...

Temperatures will be near or slightly above normal through the week
with a chance of mainly afternoon thunderstorms each day. No fire
weather concerns.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
Gadsden     89  71  90  72  93 /  40  40  30  20  30
Anniston    90  72  91  73  93 /  40  40  30  20  30
Birmingham  90  74  91  75  93 /  40  40  30  20  30
Tuscaloosa  91  73  93  74  95 /  40  40  30  20  30
Calera      90  72  91  74  93 /  40  40  30  20  30
Auburn      91  73  92  74  93 /  50  50  20  10  30
Montgomery  95  74  94  75  96 /  50  50  20  10  30
Troy        92  72  92  73  94 /  50  50  20  10  30

&&

.BMX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
None.

&&

HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BIRMINGHAM AL
510 AM CDT MON JUL 11 2016

ALZ011>015-017>050-121315-
MARION-LAMAR-FAYETTE-WINSTON-WALKER-BLOUNT-ETOWAH-CALHOUN-CHEROKEE-
CLEBURNE-PICKENS-TUSCALOOSA-JEFFERSON-SHELBY-ST. CLAIR-TALLADEGA-
CLAY-RANDOLPH-SUMTER-GREENE-HALE-PERRY-BIBB-CHILTON-COOSA-TALLAPOOSA-
CHAMBERS-MARENGO-DALLAS-AUTAUGA-LOWNDES-ELMORE-MONTGOMERY-MACON-
BULLOCK-LEE-RUSSELL-PIKE-BARBOUR-
510 AM CDT MON JUL 11 2016

THIS HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK IS FOR THE COUNTIES SERVED BY THE
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE OFFICE IN BIRMINGHAM.

.DAY ONE...OUTLOOK THROUGH TONIGHT.

NO HAZARDOUS WEATHER IS EXPECTED AT THIS TIME.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...TUESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY.

NO HAZARDOUS WEATHER IS EXPECTED AT THIS TIME.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

ACTIVATION OF STORM SPOTTERS AND EMERGENCY MANAGEMENT IS NOT
EXPECTED AT THIS TIME.

SPECIAL WEATHER STATEMENT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BIRMINGHAM AL
132 PM CDT MON JUL 11 2016

ALZ028-037-111900-
TALLAPOOSA AL-CLAY AL-
132 PM CDT MON JUL 11 2016

...SIGNIFICANT WEATHER ADVISORY FOR SOUTHEASTERN CLAY AND NORTH
CENTRAL TALLAPOOSA COUNTIES UNTIL 200 PM CDT...

AT 132 PM CDT...DOPPLER RADAR WAS TRACKING A STRONG THUNDERSTORM
NEAR GOLDVILLE...OR 9 MILES EAST OF GOODWATER...MOVING NORTHEAST AT
10 MPH.

PEA SIZE HAIL AND WINDS IN EXCESS OF 40 MPH WILL BE POSSIBLE WITH
THIS STORM.

LOCATIONS IMPACTED INCLUDE...
ASHLAND...NEW SITE...GOLDVILLE...MILLERVILLE...
HACKNEYVILLE AND MELLOW VALLEY.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

TORRENTIAL RAINFALL IS ALSO OCCURRING WITH THIS STORM...AND MAY LEAD
TO LOCALIZED FLOODING. DO NOT DRIVE YOUR VEHICLE THROUGH FLOODED
ROADWAYS.

FREQUENT CLOUD TO GROUND LIGHTNING IS OCCURRING WITH THIS STORM.
LIGHTNING CAN STRIKE 10 MILES AWAY FROM A THUNDERSTORM. SEEK A SAFE
SHELTER INSIDE A BUILDING OR VEHICLE.

&&

LAT...LON 3300 8593 3317 8601 3329 8579 3306 8566
TIME...MOT...LOC 1832Z 243DEG 8KT 3310 8590

32/DAVIS

SPECIAL WEATHER STATEMENT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BIRMINGHAM AL
142 PM CDT MON JUL 11 2016

ALZ044-046-049-111930-
BULLOCK AL-MONTGOMERY AL-PIKE AL-
142 PM CDT MON JUL 11 2016

...SIGNIFICANT WEATHER ADVISORY FOR NORTHWESTERN PIKE...WESTERN
BULLOCK AND MONTGOMERY COUNTIES UNTIL 230 PM CDT...

AT 141 PM CDT...DOPPLER RADAR WAS TRACKING STRONG THUNDERSTORMS ALONG
A LINE EXTENDING FROM NEAR PINTLALA TO NEAR TROY MUNICIPAL AIRPORT.
MOVEMENT WAS NORTHEAST AT 15 MPH.

PEA SIZE HAIL AND WINDS IN EXCESS OF 40 MPH WILL BE POSSIBLE WITH
THESE STORMS.

LOCATIONS IMPACTED INCLUDE...
MONTGOMERY...TROY...UNION SPRINGS...MEADVILLE...PIKE ROAD...
MOUNT MEIGS...BEANS CROSSROADS...DANNELLY FIELD...
AUBURN UNIVERSITY IN MONTGOMERY...BOYLSTON...WAUGH...
ALABAMA STATE UNIVERSITY...WOODCREST...GUNTER AIR FORCE BASE...
RAMER...SNOWDOUN...TROY MUNICIPAL AIRPORT...PINTLALA...
LAGOON PARK AND EASTDALE MALL.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

TORRENTIAL RAINFALL IS ALSO OCCURRING WITH THESE STORMS...AND MAY
LEAD TO LOCALIZED FLOODING. DO NOT DRIVE YOUR VEHICLE THROUGH
FLOODED ROADWAYS.

FREQUENT CLOUD TO GROUND LIGHTNING IS OCCURRING WITH THESE STORMS.
LIGHTNING CAN STRIKE 10 MILES AWAY FROM A THUNDERSTORM. SEEK A SAFE
SHELTER INSIDE A BUILDING OR VEHICLE.

&&

LAT...LON 3216 8641 3224 8641 3227 8645 3242 8632
      3241 8631 3243 8631 3250 8626 3248 8622
      3247 8622 3247 8621 3245 8620 3245 8618
      3243 8619 3244 8617 3243 8615 3242 8610
      3229 8594 3227 8591 3209 8566 3180 8597
TIME...MOT...LOC 1841Z 229DEG 12KT 3222 8638 3190 8598

32/DAVIS

SPECIAL WEATHER STATEMENT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BIRMINGHAM AL
208 PM CDT MON JUL 11 2016

ALZ043>045-111945-
MACON AL-MONTGOMERY AL-ELMORE AL-
208 PM CDT MON JUL 11 2016

...SIGNIFICANT WEATHER ADVISORY FOR WEST CENTRAL MACON...SOUTHEASTERN
ELMORE AND NORTHEASTERN MONTGOMERY COUNTIES UNTIL 245 PM CDT...

AT 207 PM CDT...DOPPLER RADAR WAS TRACKING A STRONG THUNDERSTORM OVER
WAUGH...OR 9 MILES WEST OF MILSTEAD...MOVING NORTHEAST AT 10 MPH.

PEA SIZE HAIL AND WINDS IN EXCESS OF 40 MPH WILL BE POSSIBLE WITH
THIS STORM.

LOCATIONS IMPACTED INCLUDE...
TALLASSEE...MILSTEAD...SHORTER...MOUNT MEIGS...EMERALD MOUNTAIN...
TYSONVILLE...VICTORYLAND...WAUGH...WARE AND BRASSELL.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

TORRENTIAL RAINFALL IS ALSO OCCURRING WITH THIS STORM...AND MAY LEAD
TO LOCALIZED FLOODING. DO NOT DRIVE YOUR VEHICLE THROUGH FLOODED
ROADWAYS.

FREQUENT CLOUD TO GROUND LIGHTNING IS OCCURRING WITH THIS STORM.
LIGHTNING CAN STRIKE 10 MILES AWAY FROM A THUNDERSTORM. SEEK A SAFE
SHELTER INSIDE A BUILDING OR VEHICLE.

&&

LAT...LON 3232 8607 3243 8619 3260 8590 3256 8589
      3250 8589 3249 8584 3238 8580
TIME...MOT...LOC 1907Z 235DEG 8KT 3240 8606

32/DAVIS

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