Special Weather Statement, NWS Birmingham, AL

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Birmingham AL
1236 PM CDT SUN JUL 10 2016

.UPDATE...
For 18Z Aviation.

&&

.DISCUSSION...

An MCV over northeast Mississippi has been producing an area of
showers and thunderstorms over northeast Mississippi and northwest
Alabama this morning. Radar trends show much of the current
precipitation mainly staying north of the forecast area but
clipping the northwest counties; some of the high res guidance
seems to be initializing this feature a little too far south.
However, additional scattered thunderstorms are developing further
south due to a combination of heating and the MCV. This MCV will
continue to serve as a focus for scattered to numerous storms in
the northwest through the afternoon, and the likely PoPs were
adjusted north/northwestward in association with this feature.
Additionally, high- res guidance indicates a similar overall
evolution as yesterday with storms also initiating in the
southern counties and propagating north/northeastward due to SW
flow aloft. Overall thermodynamic/microburst parameters do not
look as favorable as yesterday. Fairly widespread convective
overturning yesterday has resulted in weaker mid-level lapse rates
and less dry air aloft, decreasing downdraft CAPE values.
Additionally, cooler surface temperatures should result in lower
SBCAPE values. 0-6km bulk shear values of around 20 kts could aide
the development of multicells. Strong storms with gusty winds and
locally heavy rain are still expected, but the severe threat is
low.

Temperatures across the north are running 7-9 degrees cooler than
this time yesterday, while they are only slightly cooler across
the south. Did bump up high temperatures a bit in the south with
some additional heating expected before convection develops.

32/Davis

&&

.AVIATION...
18Z TAF Discussion.

Numerous showers and thunderstorms are expected this afternoon.
Added a TEMPO group for TSRA at all sites during the most
favorable window for convection. Thunderstorms will diminish after
sunset tonight. Patchy areas of MVFR fog may be possible around
sunrise tomorrow where the heaviest rain falls. Winds will be
light and variable outside of gusty winds associated with
thunderstorms.

32/Davis

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...

Rain chances will be fairly high today and Monday, but decrease
to more seasonal levels for the middle to end of the upcoming
week.

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION...
/Issued 426 AM CDT SUN JUL 10 2016/

Upper level low drifting across the Tennessee Valley through the
next couple of days will continue to provide just enough lift to
set off scattered to numerous showers and thunderstorms across
central Alabama. Based on latest computer model output, it looks
like the peak coverage should come this afternoon. Extensive cloud
cover will also limit high temperatures to values closer to
seasonal normals over the next few days.

The upper level weakness will drift out of our area by Tuesday.
This will put the area in a familiar regime of west to
northwesterly upper level flow. Diurnally driven climo level POPs
seem to be the best choice in the medium to long range portion of
the forecast. Interesting to note that both the GFS and ECMWF are
advertising a large oppressive upper ridge over the Mississippi
River in the 7-10 day period. This would suggest a return to near
triple digit heat is possible here early next week (just beyond
the reach of the current forecast period).

/61/

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
Gadsden     70  89  71  89  71 /  30  50  40  40  20
Anniston    71  89  71  90  72 /  40  50  40  40  20
Birmingham  74  89  75  90  75 /  40  50  30  40  20
Tuscaloosa  72  90  72  92  74 /  40  50  30  30  20
Calera      72  89  72  90  74 /  40  50  30  30  20
Auburn      72  89  73  92  73 /  40  50  30  30  10
Montgomery  73  91  74  94  74 /  40  50  20  30  10
Troy        72  90  73  93  73 /  40  50  20  20  10

&&

.BMX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
None.

&&

HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BIRMINGHAM AL
450 AM CDT SUN JUL 10 2016

ALZ011>015-017>050-111300-
MARION-LAMAR-FAYETTE-WINSTON-WALKER-BLOUNT-ETOWAH-CALHOUN-CHEROKEE-
CLEBURNE-PICKENS-TUSCALOOSA-JEFFERSON-SHELBY-ST. CLAIR-TALLADEGA-
CLAY-RANDOLPH-SUMTER-GREENE-HALE-PERRY-BIBB-CHILTON-COOSA-TALLAPOOSA-
CHAMBERS-MARENGO-DALLAS-AUTAUGA-LOWNDES-ELMORE-MONTGOMERY-MACON-
BULLOCK-LEE-RUSSELL-PIKE-BARBOUR-
450 AM CDT SUN JUL 10 2016

THIS HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK IS FOR THE COUNTIES SERVED BY THE
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE OFFICE IN BIRMINGHAM.

.DAY ONE...OUTLOOK THROUGH TONIGHT.

NO HAZARDOUS WEATHER IS EXPECTED AT THIS TIME.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...MONDAY THROUGH SATURDAY.

NO HAZARDOUS WEATHER IS EXPECTED AT THIS TIME.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

ACTIVATION OF STORM SPOTTERS AND EMERGENCY MANAGEMENT IS NOT
EXPECTED AT THIS TIME.

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