Special Weather Statement, NWS Birmingham, AL

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Birmingham AL
1256 PM CDT SAT JUL 9 2016

.UPDATE...
For 18Z Aviation.

&&

.DISCUSSION...

Scattered showers and thunderstorms are already developing, mainly
ahead of an outflow boundary from an earlier MCS in Tennessee.
Given the large CAPE values, lapse rates, and dry air aloft,
conditions appear favorable for microbursts. Therefore a mention
of isolated severe wind gusts was added to the HWO. Models aren't
handling overall radar trends very well, with high-res guidance
suggesting highest rain chances may actually be in the southern
counties. More adjustments will be needed through the day. Outside
of the thunderstorms, dangerous heat index values exist. Added a
few counties to the heat advisory based on trends.

32/Davis

&&

.AVIATION...
18Z TAF Discussion.

Scattered to numerous showers and storms will continue this
afternoon. Added a TEMPO for TSRA at MGM/TOI/TCL where the
greatest near-term chances of TSRA are, with VCTS elsewhere.
Storms will be capable of gusty winds. Storms will diminish
overnight. Some fog may be possible tonight depending on where the
heaviest rainfall is. This will be re-evaluated in the next TAF
issuance.

32/Davis

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...

Heat and humidity levels will remain high on Saturday and produce
afternoon heat indices at or above 105 degrees for the western and
southern counties. Rain chances will increase over the weekend,
especially over north Alabama.

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION...
/Issued 411 AM CDT SAT JUL 9 2016/

Two main forecast issues today -- the heat, and the increase in
rain chances. Unfortunately, these two issues are somewhat
affected by one another. First off, given the forecast
temperatures and dewpoints, and resultant heat index values, we
are going to go ahead and issue a Heat Advisory for today for a
portion of our area. That area stretches from Eufaula and Phenix
City westward, to include metro Montgomery, and further to Selma
and Demopolis, and then arcing north to Tuscaloosa and Birmingham.
I'm actually especially concerned with Birmingham -- the
temperature there hasn't dropped below 80 degrees in almost 2
whole days, and hasn't been below 75 degrees in about a week.
Although nighttime temps are no longer typically a consideration
in the decision to issue a Heat Advisory, I can't ignore the
potential for heat building up in any non-air conditioned parts of
the city.

Now, having said all that, there does appear to be some potential
relief coming -- at least on the northern end of the Advisory
area. An upper level shortwave is forecast to bring scattered to
numerous showers and thunderstorms to the north half of the state
later today. The timing of the rain's arrival will be crucial in
determining how high the heat index gets across the north. There
is a batch of convection already out there, near and north and
Memphis. But radar loops show that there is very little southward
component to the motion of those storms. It very well might not be
until mid-afternoon before we either see a new batch of storms
develop down here, or ongoing convection upstream pushes down into
our area (or a combination of both). Then again, extensive cloud
cover associated with nearby rain (even if it isn't actively
raining here) could also help to limit the amount of heating
father north.

So, basically, I have a bit higher confidence in reaching Heat
Advisory criteria (heat index of 105+) in the south. But the lack
of cooling at night, and the chance of heating up before the rain
arrives, is (in my opinion) enough to justify the Advisory going
farther north.

Will take this time to note the "Marginal" designation for most of
our area on SPC's Day 1 SWO. There's bound to be some strong
storms out there. Perhaps one or two that grow strong enough to
warrant the issuance of a warning. But I don't see anything
synoptically evident that suggests anything more than that. Of
course, the mesoscale drives much of the thunderstorm threats this
time of year, and we will need to take a look at how things
transpire later this morning to re-assess the severe potential for
this afternoon.

Fairly high rain chances will stay in the forecast through the
rest of the weekend as well, with an upper level low forecast to
meander around the southeast states. That low eventually lifts
north and eastward by Monday or Tuesday next week, and we go back
to a very weak flow, mesoscale dominated, pattern.

/61/

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
Gadsden     73  88  70  88  71 /  40  50  40  50  30
Anniston    72  88  71  89  71 /  40  50  40  50  30
Birmingham  76  89  75  89  75 /  40  50  40  50  30
Tuscaloosa  74  89  72  90  73 /  40  50  40  50  30
Calera      73  89  72  89  72 /  40  60  40  50  30
Auburn      74  90  73  90  73 /  40  60  40  40  20
Montgomery  75  92  74  92  74 /  30  60  40  40  20
Troy        74  90  72  92  73 /  30  60  40  40  20

&&

.BMX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
Heat Advisory until 9 PM CDT this evening For the following
counties: Autauga...Barbour...Bibb...Bullock...Calhoun...
Chilton...Clay...Coosa...Dallas...Elmore...Greene...Hale...
Jefferson...Lee...Lowndes...Macon...Marengo...Montgomery...
Perry...Pickens...Pike...Russell...Shelby...St. Clair...Sumter...
Talladega...Tallapoosa...Tuscaloosa.

&&

HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BIRMINGHAM AL
1007 AM CDT SAT JUL 9 2016

ALZ011>015-017>050-101815-
MARION-LAMAR-FAYETTE-WINSTON-WALKER-BLOUNT-ETOWAH-CALHOUN-CHEROKEE-
CLEBURNE-PICKENS-TUSCALOOSA-JEFFERSON-SHELBY-ST. CLAIR-TALLADEGA-
CLAY-RANDOLPH-SUMTER-GREENE-HALE-PERRY-BIBB-CHILTON-COOSA-TALLAPOOSA-
CHAMBERS-MARENGO-DALLAS-AUTAUGA-LOWNDES-ELMORE-MONTGOMERY-MACON-
BULLOCK-LEE-RUSSELL-PIKE-BARBOUR-
1007 AM CDT SAT JUL 9 2016

THIS HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK IS FOR THE COUNTIES SERVED BY THE
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE OFFICE IN BIRMINGHAM.

.DAY ONE...OUTLOOK THROUGH TONIGHT.

HEAT INDEX VALUES OVER 105 DEGREES ARE EXPECTED TODAY FOR A LARGE
PORTION OF CENTRAL ALABAMA. A HEAT ADVISORY IS IN EFFECT FROM NOON
TO 9 THIS EVENING FOR THE AFFECTED AREAS.

ISOLATED SEVERE STORMS ARE POSSIBLE TODAY ACROSS ALL OF CENTRAL
ALABAMA. THE MAIN THREAT WILL BE DAMAGING WIND GUSTS UP TO 60 MPH.
THE THREAT FOR SEVERE STORMS WILL DIMINISH THIS EVENING WITH THE
LOSS OF DAYTIME HEATING.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...SUNDAY THROUGH FRIDAY.

NO HAZARDOUS WEATHER IS EXPECTED AT THIS TIME.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

ACTIVATION OF STORM SPOTTERS AND EMERGENCY MANAGEMENT IS NOT
EXPECTED AT THIS TIME.

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BIRMINGHAM AL
200 PM CDT SAT JUL 09 2016

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

0115 PM     TSTM WND DMG     SPRING GARDEN           34.00N 85.53W
07/09/2016                   CHEROKEE           AL   EMERGENCY MNGR

            TREE DOWN ON INTERSECTION OF CR12 AND CR29 EST WIND SPEED
            AT 40-50MPH

&&

CBAIRD

SPECIAL WEATHER STATEMENT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BIRMINGHAM AL
205 PM CDT SAT JUL 9 2016

ALZ046-091930-
BULLOCK AL-
205 PM CDT SAT JUL 9 2016

...SIGNIFICANT WEATHER ADVISORY FOR CENTRAL BULLOCK COUNTY UNTIL 230
PM CDT...

AT 205 PM CDT...DOPPLER RADAR WAS TRACKING A STRONG THUNDERSTORM NEAR
FRANKLIN FIELD...OR NEAR UNION SPRINGS...MOVING EAST AT 10 MPH.

PEA SIZE HAIL AND WINDS IN EXCESS OF 40 MPH WILL BE POSSIBLE WITH
THIS STORM.

LOCATIONS IMPACTED INCLUDE...
UNION SPRINGS...FRANKLIN FIELD...ABERFOIL...
SEDGEFIELD AND THREE NOTCH.

LAT...LON 3220 8587 3223 8560 3223 8555 3202 8555
      3202 8584
TIME...MOT...LOC 1905Z 259DEG 9KT 3213 8578

32/DAVIS

SPECIAL WEATHER STATEMENT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BIRMINGHAM AL
216 PM CDT SAT JUL 9 2016

ALZ022-092000-
PICKENS AL-
216 PM CDT SAT JUL 9 2016

...SIGNIFICANT WEATHER ADVISORY FOR SOUTHEASTERN PICKENS COUNTY UNTIL
300 PM CDT...

AT 216 PM CDT...DOPPLER RADAR WAS TRACKING A STRONG THUNDERSTORM NEAR
CARROLLTON...MOVING NORTHEAST AT 30 MPH.

PEA SIZE HAIL AND WIND GUSTS UP TO 50 MPH WILL BE POSSIBLE WITH THIS
STORM.

LOCATIONS IMPACTED INCLUDE...
ALICEVILLE...GORDO...REFORM...CARROLLTON...MCMULLEN...
JOHNSTON LAKE...GARDEN...BENEVOLA...ASHCRAFT CORNER...
NORTH PICKENS AIRPORT...PIONEER...KIRK...LUBBUB...DILLBURG AND OWENS.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

TORRENTIAL RAINFALL IS ALSO OCCURRING WITH THIS STORM...AND MAY LEAD
TO LOCALIZED FLOODING. DO NOT DRIVE YOUR VEHICLE THROUGH FLOODED
ROADWAYS.

FREQUENT CLOUD TO GROUND LIGHTNING IS OCCURRING WITH THIS STORM.
LIGHTNING CAN STRIKE 10 MILES AWAY FROM A THUNDERSTORM. SEEK A SAFE
SHELTER INSIDE A BUILDING OR VEHICLE.

&&

LAT...LON 3353 8791 3353 8786 3349 8784 3315 8784
      3312 8793 3308 8797 3307 8802 3305 8803
      3306 8804 3304 8804 3304 8805 3305 8807
      3305 8808 3304 8808 3317 8825
TIME...MOT...LOC 1916Z 226DEG 25KT 3325 8805

32/DAVIS

SPECIAL WEATHER STATEMENT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BIRMINGHAM AL
219 PM CDT SAT JUL 9 2016

ALZ036-092000-
COOSA AL-
219 PM CDT SAT JUL 9 2016

...SIGNIFICANT WEATHER ADVISORY FOR CENTRAL COOSA COUNTY UNTIL 300 PM
CDT...

AT 219 PM CDT...DOPPLER RADAR WAS TRACKING A STRONG THUNDERSTORM OVER
BENTLEYVILLE...OR NEAR ROCKFORD...MOVING SOUTHEAST AT 10 MPH.

PEA SIZE HAIL AND WIND GUSTS UP TO 50 MPH WILL BE POSSIBLE WITH THIS
STORM.

LOCATIONS IMPACTED INCLUDE...
ROCKFORD...WEOGUFKA...EQUALITY...LYLE...HIGHWAY 9 AND HIGHWAY 22...
CREWSVILLE...COTTAGE GROVE...PENTONVILLE...BENTLEYVILLE...HANOVER...
SPEED...NIXBURG...MORIAH...HISSOP AND RAY.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

TORRENTIAL RAINFALL IS ALSO OCCURRING WITH THIS STORM...AND MAY LEAD
TO LOCALIZED FLOODING. DO NOT DRIVE YOUR VEHICLE THROUGH FLOODED
ROADWAYS.

FREQUENT CLOUD TO GROUND LIGHTNING IS OCCURRING WITH THIS STORM.
LIGHTNING CAN STRIKE 10 MILES AWAY FROM A THUNDERSTORM. SEEK A SAFE
SHELTER INSIDE A BUILDING OR VEHICLE.

&&

LAT...LON 3275 8611 3275 8622 3286 8640 3304 8631
      3295 8601 3291 8601
TIME...MOT...LOC 1919Z 297DEG 8KT 3292 8628

32/DAVIS

SPECIAL WEATHER STATEMENT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BIRMINGHAM AL
222 PM CDT SAT JUL 9 2016

ALZ034-092000-
BIBB AL-
222 PM CDT SAT JUL 9 2016

...SIGNIFICANT WEATHER ADVISORY FOR BIBB COUNTY UNTIL 300 PM CDT...

AT 222 PM CDT...DOPPLER RADAR WAS TRACKING A STRONG THUNDERSTORM OVER
EOLINE...OR NEAR BRENT...MOVING NORTHEAST AT 25 MPH.

PEA SIZE HAIL AND WINDS IN EXCESS OF 40 MPH WILL BE POSSIBLE WITH
THIS STORM.

LOCATIONS IMPACTED INCLUDE...
BRENT...CENTREVILLE...VANCE...WOODSTOCK...WEST BLOCTON...
BRIERFIELD IRONWORKS PARK...TALLADEGA NATIONAL FOREST...
WEST CENTREVILLE...EOLINE...NORTH BIBB...LOW GAP...ASHBY...LAWLEY...
MERTZ...RANDOLPH...HEBRON...BIBB COUNTY AIRPORT...SIX MILE...
TRIO AND HARMON.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

TORRENTIAL RAINFALL IS ALSO OCCURRING WITH THIS STORM...AND MAY LEAD
TO LOCALIZED FLOODING. DO NOT DRIVE YOUR VEHICLE THROUGH FLOODED
ROADWAYS.

FREQUENT CLOUD TO GROUND LIGHTNING IS OCCURRING WITH THIS STORM.
LIGHTNING CAN STRIKE 10 MILES AWAY FROM A THUNDERSTORM. SEEK A SAFE
SHELTER INSIDE A BUILDING OR VEHICLE.

&&

LAT...LON 3301 8732 3309 8731 3313 8728 3313 8720
      3319 8720 3323 8715 3324 8712 3322 8710
      3325 8708 3325 8703 3317 8703 3316 8698
      3310 8697 3306 8693 3305 8688 3284 8688
      3283 8732 3287 8732 3288 8742 3300 8742
TIME...MOT...LOC 1922Z 237DEG 23KT 3299 8726

32/DAVIS

SPECIAL WEATHER STATEMENT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BIRMINGHAM AL
225 PM CDT SAT JUL 9 2016

ALZ035-092015-
CHILTON AL-
225 PM CDT SAT JUL 9 2016

...SIGNIFICANT WEATHER ADVISORY FOR CENTRAL CHILTON COUNTY UNTIL 315
PM CDT...

AT 224 PM CDT...DOPPLER RADAR WAS TRACKING A STRONG THUNDERSTORM OVER
GAP OF THE MOUNTAIN...OR NEAR CLANTON...MOVING EAST AT 20 MPH.

PEA SIZE HAIL AND WINDS IN EXCESS OF 40 MPH WILL BE POSSIBLE WITH
THIS STORM.

LOCATIONS IMPACTED INCLUDE...
CALERA...CLANTON...JEMISON...THORSBY...GAP OF THE MOUNTAIN...
HIGGINS FERRY PARK...VERBENA...MITCHELL LAKE...LAY LAKE DAM...
LAY LAKE...I 65 REST AREA...WAXAHATCHEE CREEK...MINOOKA PARK...
LOMAX...COOPER AND MITCHELL DAM.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

TORRENTIAL RAINFALL IS ALSO OCCURRING WITH THIS STORM...AND MAY LEAD
TO LOCALIZED FLOODING. DO NOT DRIVE YOUR VEHICLE THROUGH FLOODED
ROADWAYS.

FREQUENT CLOUD TO GROUND LIGHTNING IS OCCURRING WITH THIS STORM.
LIGHTNING CAN STRIKE 10 MILES AWAY FROM A THUNDERSTORM. SEEK A SAFE
SHELTER INSIDE A BUILDING OR VEHICLE.

&&

LAT...LON 3293 8688 3307 8688 3307 8661 3305 8662
      3306 8660 3302 8656 3302 8652 3293 8651
      3291 8649 3287 8648 3286 8645 3283 8646
      3282 8646 3275 8638 3275 8641 3271 8641
      3271 8654
TIME...MOT...LOC 1924Z 258DEG 19KT 3289 8664

32/DAVIS