Special Weather Statement, NWS Birmingham, AL

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Birmingham AL
1238 PM CDT WED JUL 6 2016

.UPDATE...
For 18Z Aviation forecast.

&&

.DISCUSSION...

After taking a look at this morning's KBMX 12z RAOB, we've added
in a chance of isolated severe storms across all of Central
Alabama. Modifying the sounding to today's forecast highs, over
3000 J/KG of CAPE was being advertised, along with very high low-
level lapse rates. With a bit of dry air aloft and PWATS of 1.87
inches, the threat of microbursts is higher today. Also, 500MB
temperatures are cooler (-8.5 C today as opposed to -6C
yesterday). That would also support the chance of at least quarter
size hail within stronger storms as well. Overall bulk shear today
is lower than observed yesterday, so pulse storms are certainly in
the cards.

Looking off to our north and west, we've got two features to keep
an eye on for this evening's weather. The first is the MCS over
northern Arkansas and southern Missouri, and the next is the
outflow boundary quickly moving southward out of the Ohio River
Valley. As flow aloft becomes more northwesterly with time, we may
have to deal with what's left over from those storms, at least
across our far northeast counties later this evening.

56/GDG

&&

.AVIATION...
18Z TAF Discussion.

For TCL-BHM-EET-ANB-ASN, cloud heights and coverage should
average in the VFR category, with the primary transient element
being a chance for a nearby shower, perhaps a storm this afternoon.
Surface winds will be ~west-southwesterly around 5-10 knots.

Farther south, indications point toward a better chance for
showers and thunderstorms. SHRA and VCTS have been maintained for
MGM-TOI this afternoon, and a TEMPO group was also included from
18Z-20Z as radar shows storms inbound. West-southwesterly surface
winds are expected here as well, at about 5-10 knots with a few
higher gusts in/near storms.

At this time, it looks like the presence of showers and
thunderstorms will wane heading into the evening hours area-wide.
We'll keep an eye out for a few regional elements that could still
generate a few isolated cells tonight.

Lastly, forecast models are suggesting potential for some areas
of low clouds and/or fog overnight. I'll let upcoming TAF cycles
determine the need for introduction.

89/GSatterwhite

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...

Isolated to scattered showers and storms are expected for the next
several days, especially in the afternoons and evenings. No fire
weather concerns are expected.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
Gadsden     91  74  94  74  95 /  30  20  30  10  10
Anniston    91  74  94  74  95 /  30  20  20  10  10
Birmingham  94  76  95  78  95 /  30  20  20  10  10
Tuscaloosa  94  75  96  77  96 /  30  10  10   0  10
Calera      92  75  95  76  95 /  40  20  20  10  10
Auburn      90  74  93  75  94 /  60  20  20  10  10
Montgomery  94  74  97  76  97 /  50  20  20  10  10
Troy        91  74  95  75  95 /  60  20  20  10  10

&&

.BMX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
None.

&&

HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BIRMINGHAM AL
1001 AM CDT WED JUL 6 2016

ALZ011>015-017>050-071815-
MARION-LAMAR-FAYETTE-WINSTON-WALKER-BLOUNT-ETOWAH-CALHOUN-CHEROKEE-
CLEBURNE-PICKENS-TUSCALOOSA-JEFFERSON-SHELBY-ST. CLAIR-TALLADEGA-
CLAY-RANDOLPH-SUMTER-GREENE-HALE-PERRY-BIBB-CHILTON-COOSA-TALLAPOOSA-
CHAMBERS-MARENGO-DALLAS-AUTAUGA-LOWNDES-ELMORE-MONTGOMERY-MACON-
BULLOCK-LEE-RUSSELL-PIKE-BARBOUR-
1001 AM CDT WED JUL 6 2016

THIS HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK IS FOR THE COUNTIES SERVED BY THE
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE OFFICE IN BIRMINGHAM.

.DAY ONE...TODAY AND TONIGHT.

ISOLATED SEVERE STORMS ARE POSSIBLE TODAY ACROSS ALL OF CENTRAL
ALABAMA. MAIN THREATS INCLUDE GUSTY WINDS UP TO 60 MPH THAT COULD
BRING DOWN TREES AND POWER LINES...AND QUARTER SIZE HAIL. THE
THREAT FOR SEVERE STORMS WILL DIMINISH LATER THIS EVENING WITH THE
LOSS OF DAYTIME HEATING.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...THURSDAY THROUGH TUESDAY.

A COMBINATION OF HEAT AND HUMIDITY MAY SEND HEAT INDEX VALUES OVER
105 DEGREES EACH AFTERNOON FROM THURSDAY THROUGH SATURDAY...MAINLY
ACROSS THE SOUTHERN AND WESTERN PORTIONS OF CENTRAL ALABAMA.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

ACTIVATION OF STORM SPOTTERS AND EMERGENCY MANAGEMENT IS NOT
EXPECTED AT THIS TIME.

<!doctype html>
<html lang="en">
<head>
  <meta charset="utf-8">
  <meta name="viewport" content="width=device-width, initial-scale=1">
  <title>Service Notice</title>
  <link rel="stylesheet" href="index.css">
</head>
<body>
  <main class="wrap">
    <section class="card" role="status" aria-live="polite">
      <div class="status" id="status">Temporary Notice</div>
      <h1 id="headline">This service is currently unavailable.</h1>
      <p id="message1">
        The site you requested is temporarily down for maintenance or an unexpected outage.
      </p>
      <p id="message2">
        Please try again in a few minutes.
      </p>
      <p class="small" id="detail">
        If you are an administrator, restore upstream service and remove the redirect/fallback rule when normal operations resume.
      </p>
    </section>
  </main>
  <script src="index.js"></script>
</body>
</html>

<!doctype html>
<html lang="en">
<head>
  <meta charset="utf-8">
  <meta name="viewport" content="width=device-width, initial-scale=1">
  <title>Service Notice</title>
  <link rel="stylesheet" href="index.css">
</head>
<body>
  <main class="wrap">
    <section class="card" role="status" aria-live="polite">
      <div class="status" id="status">Temporary Notice</div>
      <h1 id="headline">This service is currently unavailable.</h1>
      <p id="message1">
        The site you requested is temporarily down for maintenance or an unexpected outage.
      </p>
      <p id="message2">
        Please try again in a few minutes.
      </p>
      <p class="small" id="detail">
        If you are an administrator, restore upstream service and remove the redirect/fallback rule when normal operations resume.
      </p>
    </section>
  </main>
  <script src="index.js"></script>
</body>
</html>

<!doctype html>
<html lang="en">
<head>
  <meta charset="utf-8">
  <meta name="viewport" content="width=device-width, initial-scale=1">
  <title>Service Notice</title>
  <link rel="stylesheet" href="index.css">
</head>
<body>
  <main class="wrap">
    <section class="card" role="status" aria-live="polite">
      <div class="status" id="status">Temporary Notice</div>
      <h1 id="headline">This service is currently unavailable.</h1>
      <p id="message1">
        The site you requested is temporarily down for maintenance or an unexpected outage.
      </p>
      <p id="message2">
        Please try again in a few minutes.
      </p>
      <p class="small" id="detail">
        If you are an administrator, restore upstream service and remove the redirect/fallback rule when normal operations resume.
      </p>
    </section>
  </main>
  <script src="index.js"></script>
</body>
</html>

<!doctype html>
<html lang="en">
<head>
  <meta charset="utf-8">
  <meta name="viewport" content="width=device-width, initial-scale=1">
  <title>Service Notice</title>
  <link rel="stylesheet" href="index.css">
</head>
<body>
  <main class="wrap">
    <section class="card" role="status" aria-live="polite">
      <div class="status" id="status">Temporary Notice</div>
      <h1 id="headline">This service is currently unavailable.</h1>
      <p id="message1">
        The site you requested is temporarily down for maintenance or an unexpected outage.
      </p>
      <p id="message2">
        Please try again in a few minutes.
      </p>
      <p class="small" id="detail">
        If you are an administrator, restore upstream service and remove the redirect/fallback rule when normal operations resume.
      </p>
    </section>
  </main>
  <script src="index.js"></script>
</body>
</html>

SPECIAL WEATHER STATEMENT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BIRMINGHAM AL
128 PM CDT WED JUL 6 2016

ALZ050-061915-
BARBOUR AL-
128 PM CDT WED JUL 6 2016

...SIGNIFICANT WEATHER ADVISORY FOR CENTRAL BARBOUR COUNTY UNTIL 215
PM CDT...

AT 128 PM CDT...DOPPLER RADAR WAS TRACKING A STRONG THUNDERSTORM NEAR
BARBOUR COUNTY PUBLIC LAKE DAM...OR NEAR MIDWAY...MOVING SOUTHEAST AT
15 MPH.

HALF INCH HAIL AND WIND GUSTS UP TO 50 MPH WILL BE POSSIBLE WITH THIS
STORM.

LOCATIONS IMPACTED INCLUDE...
CLAYTON...GAINO...BARBOUR COUNTY PUBLIC LAKE DAM...WHITE OAK...MOUNT
ANDREW AND CLAYTON MUNICIPAL AIRPORT.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

TORRENTIAL RAINFALL IS ALSO OCCURRING WITH THIS STORM...AND MAY LEAD
TO LOCALIZED FLOODING. DO NOT DRIVE YOUR VEHICLE THROUGH FLOODED
ROADWAYS.

FREQUENT CLOUD TO GROUND LIGHTNING IS OCCURRING WITH THIS STORM.
LIGHTNING CAN STRIKE 10 MILES AWAY FROM A THUNDERSTORM. SEEK A SAFE
SHELTER INSIDE A BUILDING OR VEHICLE.

&&

LAT...LON 3192 8564 3196 8561 3200 8559 3199 8554
      3200 8551 3201 8551 3201 8547 3202 8547
      3201 8546 3201 8543 3198 8540 3194 8526
      3176 8536
TIME...MOT...LOC 1828Z 294DEG 14KT 3198 8553

56

SPECIAL WEATHER STATEMENT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BIRMINGHAM AL
206 PM CDT WED JUL 6 2016

ALZ040-061930-
DALLAS AL-
206 PM CDT WED JUL 6 2016

...SIGNIFICANT WEATHER ADVISORY FOR CENTRAL DALLAS COUNTY UNTIL 230
PM CDT...

AT 206 PM CDT...DOPPLER RADAR WAS TRACKING A STRONG THUNDERSTORM OVER
ORRVILLE...OR 15 MILES WEST OF SELMA...MOVING NORTHEAST AT 20 MPH.

PEA SIZE HAIL AND WINDS IN EXCESS OF 40 MPH WILL BE POSSIBLE WITH
THIS STORM.

LOCATIONS IMPACTED INCLUDE...
SELMA...SELMONT-WEST SELMONT...ORRVILLE...BOGUE CHITTO...
MARION JUNCTION...MEMORIAL STADIUM...DALLAS COUNTY HORSE ARENA...
POTTER STATION...EDMUND PETTUS BRIDGE...SKYHARBOR AIRPORT...
SELMA UNIVERSITY...HAZEN AND WHITES BLUFF.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

TORRENTIAL RAINFALL IS ALSO OCCURRING WITH THIS STORM...AND MAY LEAD
TO LOCALIZED FLOODING. DO NOT DRIVE YOUR VEHICLE THROUGH FLOODED
ROADWAYS.

FREQUENT CLOUD TO GROUND LIGHTNING IS OCCURRING WITH THIS STORM.
LIGHTNING CAN STRIKE 10 MILES AWAY FROM A THUNDERSTORM. SEEK A SAFE
SHELTER INSIDE A BUILDING OR VEHICLE.

THIS STORM MAY INTENSIFY...SO BE CERTAIN TO MONITOR LOCAL RADIO
STATIONS AND AVAILABLE TELEVISION STATIONS FOR ADDITIONAL INFORMATION
AND POSSIBLE WARNINGS FROM THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE.

&&

LAT...LON 3221 8726 3234 8741 3248 8732 3249 8711
      3250 8710 3241 8700
TIME...MOT...LOC 1906Z 225DEG 15KT 3233 8727

56