Special Weather Statement, NWS Birmingham, AL

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Birmingham AL
225 PM CDT FRI MAY 20 2016

.DISCUSSION...

Upper trough axis to our west is setting off a few isolated to
scattered areas of showers this afternoon. This feature will
continue to shift eastward this evening and with decreasing pops
from west to east through the next 12 hours. It will be dry going
into the first of the week.

Weather conditions look quiet for much of next week. Mid and
upper level ridging moves across the area early next week. Low
level winds become southerly as surface high pressure shifts
eastward. Ridging aloft should keep the main storm track to the
north as impulses rotate around the ridge. Cannot rule out a
couple of these impulses skirting the far northern locations by
Tuesday and Wednesday, and will keep a mention of low pops for
parts of the area.

Ridging weakens slightly and southwesterly mid level flow
develops across the area around the Thursday/Friday time frame.
For now, most of the showers/storms are expected to remain west
of the state although slightly higher coverage is warranted.

Nothing unusual for temperatures. A little cooler Saturday and
Sunday as the drier air shifts southward and into the area with
warmer and more humid conditions for next week.

88

&&

.AVIATION...
18Z TAF Discussion.

Generally MVFR clouds out there right now as southerly flow
continues to stream some limited moisture into the area. These
clouds are going to limit the potential for showers/storms this
afternoon and tonight as the front works through. There is still a
chance at seeing some scattered showers and storms at all sites
after 21Z north to 00Z south. Troy has the best shot even before
then as the boundary from the morning's activity remains nearby.
By 6Z the rain chances dwindle but with plenty of low level
moisture in place, low IFR clouds will develop and impact most
sites through 14 to 15Z tomorrow. These clouds should break up
after that, giving way to clearing skies.

16

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...

Scattered rain and storms are possible today ahead of a frontal
system. Drier and cooler air arrives behind a cold front tomorrow
with dry conditions continuing through mid week. No fire weather
concerns at this time.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
Gadsden     61  78  54  79  53 /  50  10   0   0   0
Anniston    62  79  57  79  55 /  50  10   0   0   0
Birmingham  63  79  58  80  58 /  40  10   0   0   0
Tuscaloosa  62  81  58  82  58 /  40  10   0   0   0
Calera      63  80  59  80  58 /  40  10   0   0   0
Auburn      64  79  60  79  59 /  40  20   0   0   0
Montgomery  67  83  61  84  59 /  40  10   0   0   0
Troy        66  83  61  82  58 /  40  20   0   0   0

&&

.BMX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
None.

&&

HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BIRMINGHAM AL
839 AM CDT FRI MAY 20 2016

ALZ011>015-017>050-211645-
MARION-LAMAR-FAYETTE-WINSTON-WALKER-BLOUNT-ETOWAH-CALHOUN-CHEROKEE-
CLEBURNE-PICKENS-TUSCALOOSA-JEFFERSON-SHELBY-ST. CLAIR-TALLADEGA-
CLAY-RANDOLPH-SUMTER-GREENE-HALE-PERRY-BIBB-CHILTON-COOSA-TALLAPOOSA-
CHAMBERS-MARENGO-DALLAS-AUTAUGA-LOWNDES-ELMORE-MONTGOMERY-MACON-
BULLOCK-LEE-RUSSELL-PIKE-BARBOUR-
839 AM CDT FRI MAY 20 2016

THIS HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK IS FOR THE COUNTIES SERVED BY THE
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE OFFICE IN BIRMINGHAM.

.DAY ONE...OUTLOOK THROUGH TONIGHT.

NO HAZARDOUS WEATHER IS EXPECTED AT THIS TIME.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...SATURDAY THROUGH THURSDAY.

NO HAZARDOUS WEATHER IS EXPECTED AT THIS TIME.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

ACTIVATION OF STORM SPOTTERS AND EMERGENCY MANAGEMENT IS NOT
EXPECTED AT THIS TIME.

SPECIAL WEATHER STATEMENT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BIRMINGHAM AL
452 PM CDT FRI MAY 20 2016

ALZ022-202215-
PICKENS AL-
452 PM CDT FRI MAY 20 2016

...SIGNIFICANT WEATHER ADVISORY FOR SOUTHWESTERN PICKENS COUNTY UNTIL
515 PM CDT...

AT 452 PM CDT...DOPPLER RADAR WAS TRACKING A STRONG THUNDERSTORM OVER
BEVILL LOCK AND DAM...OR NEAR PICKENSVILLE...MOVING SOUTHEAST AT 20
MPH.

HALF INCH HAIL AND WINDS IN EXCESS OF 40 MPH WILL BE POSSIBLE WITH
THIS STORM.

LOCATIONS IMPACTED INCLUDE...
ALICEVILLE...PICKENSVILLE...MCMULLEN...BEVILL LOCK AND DAM...GARDEN...
GAINESVILLE LAKE CAMPGROUND...GEORGE DOWNER AIRPORT AND COCHRANE.

LAT...LON 3324 8831 3329 8826 3308 8799 3307 8802
      3305 8803 3306 8804 3304 8804 3304 8805
      3305 8807 3305 8808 3304 8807 3303 8810
      3304 8814 3304 8815 3303 8814 3301 8817
      3300 8817 3299 8834
TIME...MOT...LOC 2152Z 311DEG 19KT 3317 8827

08

SPECIAL WEATHER STATEMENT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BIRMINGHAM AL
509 PM CDT FRI MAY 20 2016

ALZ030-031-202300-
GREENE AL-SUMTER AL-
509 PM CDT FRI MAY 20 2016

...SIGNIFICANT WEATHER ADVISORY FOR NORTHWESTERN SUMTER AND GREENE
COUNTIES UNTIL 600 PM CDT...

AT 509 PM CDT...DOPPLER RADAR WAS TRACKING STRONG THUNDERSTORMS ALONG
A LINE EXTENDING FROM NEAR JOHNSTON LAKE TO NEAR COOKSVILLE. MOVEMENT
WAS SOUTHEAST AT 20 MPH.

HALF INCH HAIL AND WINDS IN EXCESS OF 40 MPH WILL BE POSSIBLE WITH
THESE STORMS.

LOCATIONS IMPACTED INCLUDE...
LIVINGSTON...EUTAW...BOLIGEE...UNION...GAINESVILLE...EPES...EMELLE...NEW
WEST GREENE...JENA...PANOLA...MANTUA...ALLISON...KNOXVILLE...WEST GREENE...
BOYD...GEIGER...WARSAW...PAYNEVILLE...LEWISTON AND I 20 REST AREA NEAR
EUTAW.

LAT...LON 3299 8834 3300 8817 3303 8814 3304 8814
      3304 8804 3312 8793 3314 8784 3302 8783
      3302 8771 3300 8771 3298 8775 3295 8773
      3290 8777 3290 8781 3286 8783 3280 8782
      3277 8786 3276 8786 3250 8839
TIME...MOT...LOC 2209Z 307DEG 17KT 3315 8810 3294 8839

08

SPECIAL WEATHER STATEMENT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BIRMINGHAM AL
621 PM CDT FRI MAY 20 2016

ALZ011-210000-
MARION AL-
621 PM CDT FRI MAY 20 2016

...SIGNIFICANT WEATHER ADVISORY FOR NORTHERN MARION COUNTY UNTIL 700
PM CDT...

AT 620 PM CDT...DOPPLER RADAR WAS TRACKING A STRONG THUNDERSTORM NEAR
TREMONT...OR 11 MILES WEST OF HAMILTON...MOVING NORTHEAST AT 15 MPH.

HALF INCH HAIL AND WINDS IN EXCESS OF 40 MPH WILL BE POSSIBLE WITH
THIS STORM.

LOCATIONS IMPACTED INCLUDE...
HAMILTON...HACKLEBURG...WESTON...BRINN...BEAR CREEK...PIGEYE...BEXAR...UPPER
BEAR CREEK RESERVOIR...TESSNER...RANKIN FITE AIRPORT...BYRD AND
SHOTTSVILLE.

LAT...LON 3431 8770 3429 8763 3422 8764 3405 8817
      3406 8820 3407 8821 3432 8817
TIME...MOT...LOC 2320Z 229DEG 12KT 3418 8817

08

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