Special Weather Statement, NWS Birmingham, AL

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BIRMINGHAM AL
314 PM CDT FRI APR 29 2016

.SHORT TERM...TONIGHT AND SATURDAY.

MAIN FOCUS IN THE SHORT TERM WILL BE ON THE LARGE MCS APPROACHING
FROM THE WEST. THE MCS WILL CONTINUE TO TREK EASTWARD ALONG THE
INSTABILITY GRADIENT REACHING OUR NORTHWEST COUNTIES WITHIN THE
NEXT HOUR OR TWO AND MOVING ACROSS THE NORTHERN HALF OF THE AREA
THIS EVENING. THERE IS PLENTY OF INSTABILITY PRESENT AND STEEP
MID-LEVEL LAPSE RATES. BULK SHEAR IS SOMEWHAT ENHANCED ASSOCIATED
WITH AN MCV BUT IS STRONGER TO THE NORTH OF THE FORECAST AREA.
STRONG GUSTY WINDS AND SMALL HAIL CAN BE EXPECTED WITH AN ISOLATED
SEVERE WIND GUST NOT OUT OF THE QUESTION. TRENDS AND STORM
ORGANIZATION WILL CONTINUE TO BE MONITORED. THE STORMS ARE ALSO
PRODUCING FREQUENT LIGHTNING.

STORMS ARE EXPECTED TO DISSIPATE BY AROUND MIDNIGHT WITH SOME
PATCHY FOG POSSIBLE AT LEAST IN THE SOUTH. TOMORROW A
WARM...MOIST...AND UNSTABLE AIR MASS WILL REMAIN ACROSS THE
REGION. THERE IS NOT MUCH IN THE WAY OF FORCING DURING THE DAYTIME
PERIOD BESIDES A FEW WEAK WAVES MOVING THROUGH IN SW FLOW AND ANY
POSSIBLE LEFTOVER BOUNDARIES FROM TONIGHT. CONFIDENCE IN THE
PLACEMENT OF THE HIGHEST RAIN CHANCES IS LOW...BUT EXPECT ISOLATED
TO SCATTERED CONVECTION WILL BE POSSIBLE ANYWHERE. THE WRF-ARW
INDICATES ANOTHER MCS DEVELOPING IN THE PLAINS AND MOVING TOWARDS
THE WESTERN COUNTIES DURING THE AFTERNOON WHICH IS PLAUSIBLE GIVEN
THE WESTERLY TO NORTHWESTERLY CORFIDI VECTORS AND INCREASING
UPPER-LEVEL DIFFLUENCE MOVING IN FROM THE WEST AS A JET STREAK
ROUNDS THE BASE OF A BROAD UPPER-LEVEL TROUGH OVER THE WESTERN US.
THEREFORE WILL PLACE THE HIGHEST RAIN CHANCES IN THE WEST WITH LOW
CONFIDENCE. OUTSIDE OF ANY SHOWERS AND STORMS WARM CONDITIONS
SHOULD CONTINUE. BULK SHEAR REMAINS SOMEWHAT ENHANCED SO A
STRONGER STORM OR TWO WILL BE POSSIBLE.

32/DAVIS

.LONG TERM...SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY.

A MOIST AND UNSTABLE SOUTHWEST FLOW PATTERN WILL PREVAIL THROUGH
TUESDAY. THERE WILL BE A SERIES OF UPPER LEVEL IMPULSES THAT ROTATE
ACROSS THE CENTRAL GULF COAST REGION THROUGH TUESDAY...AND TIMING
OF THE IMPULSES ARE DIFFICULT IN THIS TYPE OF PATTERN. THE ECMWF
AND GFS MODELS ARE NOT TOO MUCH OUT OF PHASE...WITH EACH MODEL
SHOWING A MCS APPROACHING WEST ALABAMA SATURDAY AFTERNOON AND
AGAIN MONDAY AFTERNOON...SO LIKELY RAIN CHANCES WERE ASSIGNED FOR
SATURDAY NIGHT AND INTO SUNDAY MORNING. CONTEMPLATED LIKELY RAIN
CHANCES MONDAY NIGHT AND INTO TUESDAY...BUT KEPT POPS BELOW 60
PERCENT DUE TO TIMING ISSUES WITH EACH IMPULSE. CANNOT RULE OUT A
SEVERE STORM ANYTIME SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY...BUT DO NOT
SEE ANY ORGANIZED SEVERE THREAT AS 0-6KM BULK SHEAR STAYS BELOW 30
KNOTS UNTIL TUESDAY. CONFIDENCE NOT HIGH ENOUGH TO HIGHLIGHT
SEVERE THREAT FOR ANY ONE PERIOD. THE SEVERE THREATS WILL LIKELY
BE REALIZED CLOSER TO THE TIMING OF THE INDIVIDUAL IMPULSES. THE
MODELS DO BRING IN SOME HIGHER BULK SHEAR VALUES TUESDAY AFTERNOON
ACROSS NORTH ALABAMA...BUT BEST INSTABILITY IS ACROSS SOUTH
ALABAMA. THE MAIN UPPER TROF FINALLY SWINGS THROUGH ALABAMA ON
WEDNESDAY AND THE RAIN PUSHES OUT OF THE AREA. COOLER AND DRIER
CONDITIONS WEDNESDAY THROUGH FRIDAY.

58/ROSE

&&

.AVIATION...
18Z TAF DISCUSSION.

AN AREA OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS IN NORTHWEST MS WILL CONTINUE
TO MOVE EASTWARD THIS AFTERNOON...AFFECTING THE NORTHERN TAF SITES
LATE THIS AFTERNOON AND EVENING. HAVE ADDED A TEMPO MENTION OF
TSRA FOR TCL/BHM/EET AND VCTS AT ANB/ASN WITH SOME QUESTION
REGARDING HOW FAR EAST THIS ACTIVITY WILL MAKE IT. VIS REDUCTION
WILL BE LIKELY BUT CIG HEIGHTS WITH THIS ACTIVITY ARE UNCERTAIN.
ANY TSTORM ACTIVITY NEAR MGM/TOI WILL BE TOO ISOLATED TO MENTION.
SOME FOG WILL BE POSSIBLE AGAIN TOMORROW AND HAVE ADDED AN MVFR
MENTION ONLY AT MGM/TOI THOUGH FOG WILL BE A POSSIBILITY AT THE
NORTHERN TAF SITES TOMORROW MORNING AS WELL DEPENDING ON THE
EVOLUTION OF THE STORMS.

32/DAVIS

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...

SCATTERED TO NUMEROUS SHOWERS AND STORMS THROUGH TUESDAY. HIGHEST
RAINFALL TOTALS FOR THE NEXT FOUR DAYS WILL BE ALONG AND NORTH OF
I-20...WHERE 1.5 TO 2 INCHES FORECAST. DRIER CONDITIONS EXPECTED
WENESDAY THROUGH FRIDAY.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
GADSDEN     62  83  64  81  61 /  50  30  60  70  30
ANNISTON    65  84  65  81  62 /  30  30  50  70  30
BIRMINGHAM  67  85  67  81  63 /  60  30  60  70  30
TUSCALOOSA  66  85  67  81  62 /  60  40  60  70  30
CALERA      66  84  66  80  63 /  60  30  50  70  30
AUBURN      66  85  66  82  64 /  10  20  30  50  30
MONTGOMERY  66  88  68  83  65 /  10  20  30  50  30
TROY        66  87  67  84  67 /  10  20  20  50  30

&&

.BMX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.

&&

HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BIRMINGHAM AL
529 PM CDT FRI APR 29 2016

ALZ011>015-017>050-010130-
MARION-LAMAR-FAYETTE-WINSTON-WALKER-BLOUNT-ETOWAH-CALHOUN-CHEROKEE-
CLEBURNE-PICKENS-TUSCALOOSA-JEFFERSON-SHELBY-ST. CLAIR-TALLADEGA-
CLAY-RANDOLPH-SUMTER-GREENE-HALE-PERRY-BIBB-CHILTON-COOSA-TALLAPOOSA-
CHAMBERS-MARENGO-DALLAS-AUTAUGA-LOWNDES-ELMORE-MONTGOMERY-MACON-
BULLOCK-LEE-RUSSELL-PIKE-BARBOUR-
529 PM CDT FRI APR 29 2016

THIS HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK IS FOR THE COUNTIES SERVED BY THE
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE OFFICE IN BIRMINGHAM.

.DAY ONE...TONIGHT.

A FEW SEVERE STORMS ARE POSSIBLE ACROSS THE NORTHWEST COUNTIES OF
CENTRAL ALABAMA THROUGH 8 PM...MAINLY NORTH AND WEST OF A LINE
FROM CARROLLTON TO COLUMBIANA TO ONEONTA. THE PRIMARY THREAT WILL
BE DAMAGING STRAIGHT LINE WINDS IN EXCESS OF 70 MPH AND SOME LARGE
HAIL. THE STORMS WILL ALSO CONTAIN FREQUENT CLOUD TO GROUND
LIGHTNING. AN ISOLATED TORNADO CANNOT BE RULED OUT.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...SATURDAY THROUGH THURSDAY.

NO HAZARDOUS WEATHER IS EXPECTED AT THIS TIME.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

ACTIVATION OF STORM SPOTTERS AND EMERGENCY MANAGEMENT IS NOT
EXPECTED AT THIS TIME.

08

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PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BIRMINGHAM AL
658 PM CDT FRI APR 29 2016

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

0623 PM     TSTM WND DMG     LIBERTY PARK            33.48N 86.70W
04/29/2016                   JEFFERSON          AL   PUBLIC

            A FEW TREES WERE REPORTED DOWN IN LIBERTY PARK. TIME
            ESTIMATED BY RADAR.

&&

GSATTERW

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BIRMINGHAM AL
714 PM CDT FRI APR 29 2016

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

0655 PM     HAIL             MOODY                   33.60N 86.49W
04/29/2016  E0.75 INCH       ST. CLAIR          AL   PUBLIC

            DIME-SIZED HAIL AT THE CRACKER BARREL IN MOODY OFF
            I-459/EXIT 141.

&&

GSATTERW

SPECIAL WEATHER STATEMENT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BIRMINGHAM AL
715 PM CDT FRI APR 29 2016

ALZ032-033-300100-
PERRY AL-HALE AL-
715 PM CDT FRI APR 29 2016

...SIGNIFICANT WEATHER ADVISORY FOR NORTHWESTERN PERRY AND
NORTHEASTERN HALE COUNTIES UNTIL 800 PM CDT...

AT 715 PM CDT...DOPPLER RADAR WAS TRACKING A STRONG THUNDERSTORM 9
MILES NORTHEAST OF GREENSBORO...MOVING EAST AT 10 MPH.

NICKEL SIZE HAIL AND WINDS IN EXCESS OF 40 MPH WILL BE POSSIBLE WITH
THIS STORM.

LOCATIONS IMPACTED INCLUDE...
MARION...GREENSBORO...HEIBERGER...WATEROAK...FOLSOM AND MORGAN SPRINGS.

LAT...LON 3293 8757 3292 8742 3288 8742 3287 8732
      3283 8732 3283 8727 3264 8729 3270 8765
TIME...MOT...LOC 0015Z 274DEG 10KT 3279 8748

32/DAVIS

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BIRMINGHAM AL
717 PM CDT FRI APR 29 2016

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

0653 PM     TSTM WND DMG     5 WNW WILSONVILLE       33.26N 86.55W
04/29/2016                   SHELBY             AL   EMERGENCY MNGR

            TREES DOWNED.

&&

GSATTERW

SPECIAL WEATHER STATEMENT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BIRMINGHAM AL
720 PM CDT FRI APR 29 2016

ALZ043-044-300100-
MONTGOMERY AL-ELMORE AL-
720 PM CDT FRI APR 29 2016

...SIGNIFICANT WEATHER ADVISORY FOR SOUTHEASTERN ELMORE AND
NORTHEASTERN MONTGOMERY COUNTIES UNTIL 800 PM CDT...

AT 720 PM CDT...DOPPLER RADAR WAS TRACKING A STRONG THUNDERSTORM NEAR
BLUE RIDGE...OR 7 MILES SOUTH OF WETUMPKA...MOVING EAST AT 5 MPH.

NICKEL SIZE HAIL AND WINDS IN EXCESS OF 40 MPH WILL BE POSSIBLE WITH
THIS STORM.

LOCATIONS IMPACTED INCLUDE...
NORTHEASTERN MONTGOMERY...WETUMPKA...MOUNT MEIGS...EMERALD MOUNTAIN...
AUBURN UNIVERSITY IN MONTGOMERY...BOYLSTON...WAUGH...BLUE RIDGE...GUNTER
AIR FORCE BASE...MONTGOMERY ZOO...LAGOON PARK...EASTDALE MALL...ALABAMA
STATE CAPITOL...WARE...BRASSELL...TALLAPOOSA WATER PLANT...CECIL AND
MITYLENE.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

TORRENTIAL RAINFALL IS ALSO OCCURRING WITH THIS STORM...AND MAY LEAD
TO LOCALIZED FLOODING. DO NOT DRIVE YOUR VEHICLE THROUGH FLOODED
ROADWAYS.

FREQUENT CLOUD TO GROUND LIGHTNING IS OCCURRING WITH THIS STORM.
LIGHTNING CAN STRIKE 10 MILES AWAY FROM A THUNDERSTORM. SEEK A SAFE
SHELTER INSIDE A BUILDING OR VEHICLE.

&&

LAT...LON 3238 8631 3254 8622 3252 8592 3244 8595
      3244 8596 3245 8598 3244 8598 3244 8599
      3243 8599 3242 8602 3240 8601 3238 8601
      3233 8598 3226 8601
TIME...MOT...LOC 0020Z 284DEG 6KT 3244 8617

32/DAVIS