Special Weather Statement, NWS Birmingham, AL

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BIRMINGHAM AL
750 PM CDT WED APR 6 2016

.UPDATE...
MESOSCALE UPDATE.

&&

.DISCUSSION...

A LINE OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS EXTENDED FROM NEAR CULLMAN
SOUTHWEST ACROSS SOUTHEAST WALKER COUNTY AND FURTHER SOUTHWEST
INTO CENTRAL TUSCALOOSA COUNTY AND SOUTHWEST INTO NORTH-CENTRAL
SUMTER COUNTY. THIS ACTIVITY WILL CONTINUE TO MOVE TO THE EAST
THIS EVENING.

ISOLATED STRONG THUNDERSTORMS HAVE DEVELOPED ACROSS FAR EASTERN
ALABAMA FROM CALHOUN COUNTY NOW AFFECTING NORTHERN CLEBURNE COUNTY
AND WILL AFFECT PORTIONS OF CHEROKEE COUNTY.

ADDITIONALLY... ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS CONTINUE TO MOVE EAST
ACROSS NORTH-CENTRAL MISSISSIPPI POSING A RISK FOR LARGE HAIL.
THIS ACTIVITY IS BEHIND A SURFACE COLD FRONT ANALYZED ACROSS THE
NORTHWEST PORTION OF ALABAMA SOUTHWEST ACROSS EASTERN MISSISSIPPI.

DESPITE LOSS OF DAYTIME HEATING... SURFACE WARM ADVECTION AND
MOISTURE ADVECTION FROM THE SOUTH ARE HELPING TO MAINTAIN NEAR
SURFACE INSTABILITY WITH MESOANALYSIS INDICATING CAPE VALUES FROM
250 TO 500 JOULES PER KILOGRAM. ADDITIONAL INSTABILITY IS
DEVELOPING ALOFT DUE TO STEEPENING LAPSE RATES AS COLDER AIR MOVES
IN FROM THE NORTHWEST WELL ABOVE THE SURFACE.

EXPECT THE LINE OF STORMS TO CONTINUE TO DEVELOP AND MOVE EAST
ACROSS THE AREA WITH A FEW ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS POSSIBLE EAST OF
THE LINE WITH A DAMAGING WIND AND HAIL THREAT POSSIBLE ALONG AND
TO THE EAST OF THE LINE. BEHIND THE LINE OF THUNDERSTORMS... A
SURFACE COLD FRONT WILL CONTINUE PUSHING EASTWARD AND
THUNDERSTORMS NEAR AND TO THE WEST OF THE FRONT WILL PRIMARILY
POSE A THREAT FOR LARGE HAIL.

05

&&

.AVIATION...
00Z TAF DISCUSSION.

CEILINGS WILL FALL TONIGHT AS A COLD FRONT APPROACHES FROM THE
WEST. BREEZY CONDITIONS THIS EVENING WILL PERSIST TONIGHT WITH
WINDS SHIFTING FROM THE NORTHWEST AFTER THE FRONT MOVES THROUGH.
EXPECT SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS TO CONTINUE TONIGHT FOLLOWED BY
IMPROVING CONDITIONS ON THURSDAY WITH RISING CLOUD BASES AND
DECREASING CLOUD COVER AS DRIER AIR ARRIVES FROM THE WEST. GUSTY
WINDS WILL BE POSSIBLE TOWARD THE END OF THE PERIOD AT ALL
SITES... DURING THE AFTERNOON HOURS ON THURSDAY.

05

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...

STRONG SOUTHERLY WIND THIS AFTERNOON WITH SHOWERS AND A FEW
THUNDERSTORMS LATER THIS EVENING AND OVERNIGHT. DRY CONDITIONS
FOR MOST OF THE AREA THURSDAY AFTERNOON WITH RELATIVE HUMIDITY
VALUES INTO THE 30S.

75

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION...
/ISSUED 650 PM CDT WED APR 6 2016/

SHOWERS WITH A FEW THUNDERSTORMS ARE DEVELOPING ACROSS THE
NORTHERN AND CENTRAL PORTIONS OF OUR AREA AT THIS HOUR AS A
SURFACE COLD FRONT PUSHES INTO FAR WESTERN TENNESSEE... NORTHERN
MISSISSIPPI AND MOVES FURTHER INTO CENTRAL LOUISIANA.

THE PRIMARY RISK WITH THE STRONGER THUNDERSTORMS REMAINS A
DAMAGING WIND THREAT ALONG WITH A LARGE HAIL THREAT AS HIGHER
WINDS ALOFT HAVE THE POTENTIAL TO MIX DOWNWARD AND STEEP LAPSE
RATES ARE EXPECTED AS THE COLD FRONT APPROACHES... PERMITTING THE
DEVELOPMENT OF LARGE HAIL WITHIN THE THUNDERSTORM ACTIVITY.

SURFACE TEMPERATURES AS OF 6 PM HAVE CONTINUED TO WARM THROUGHOUT
OUR AREA WITH READINGS IN THE 70S ACROSS ALL BUT PORTIONS OF OUR
EAST-CENTRAL AND NORTHEAST COUNTIES... INCLUDING PORTIONS OF
CLAY... CLEBURNE... RANDOLPH... CHAMBERS... AND CHEROKEE COUNTIES.

DEW POINTS HAVE CONTINUED TO INCREASE WITH READINGS IN THE LOWER
60S ACROSS SOUTHEAST BULLOCK COUNTY... ALONG WITH READINGS IN THE
50S GENERALLY ALONG AND SOUTHEAST OF A LINE FROM NEAR MARION IN
PERRY COUNTY NORTHEAST TO NEAR SYLACAUGA NORTHEAST TO NEAR
ANNISTON AND EAST ACROSS SOUTHERN CLEBURNE COUNTY.

MESOANALYSIS DATA INDICATES RELATIVELY LOW SURFACE-BASED
INSTABILITY WITH CAPE VALUES GENERALLY RANGING BETWEEN 250 AND 500
JOULES PER KILOGRAM. MORE ELEVATED INSTABILITY IS FORECAST TO
MATERIALIZE ACROSS THE AREA THROUGH THE EVENING HOURS AS LAPSE
RATES STEEPEN WITH THE ARRIVAL OF COLDER AIR ALOFT.

SATELLITE IMAGERY INDICATES A FEW BREAKS IN THE CLOUD COVER ACROSS
OUR AREA BUT THE RELATIVELY SMALL AREAS ALONG WITH THE APPROACH OF
SUNSET WILL LIMIT FURTHER SURFACE HEATING BY SOLAR INSOLATION.

REGIONAL VAD WIND PROFILES FROM NEXRAD RADAR SITES GENERALLY
DEPICT A SOUTHERLY FLOW JUST OFF THE SURFACE WITH WINDS BETWEEN 20
AND 30 KNOTS GENERALLY... TRANSITIONING TO A SOUTHWEST FLOW NEAR
50 KNOTS GENERALLY ABOVE 14000 FEET AT BOTH BMX AND MXX. THE SMALL
POTENTIAL EXISTS FOR AN ISOLATED TORNADO... THOUGH LOW LEVEL
INSTABILITY AND LOWER LEVEL DIRECTIONAL WIND SHEAR REMAINS
MINIMAL.

EXPECT SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS TO CONTINUE TO DEVELOP AND MOVE
TO THE NORTHEAST ALONG AND AHEAD OF THE SURFACE COLD FRONT THAT
WILL PUSH INTO CENTRAL MISSISSIPPI LATER THIS EVENING AND ARRIVE
LATER TONIGHT. SOUTHERLY WINDS WILL REMAIN GUSTY AHEAD OF THE
FRONT AND OUTSIDE OF THUNDERSTORMS. WITHIN THUNDERSTORMS THE RISK
OF DAMAGING WINDS AND LARGE HAIL WILL BE THE PRIMARY RISKS
TONIGHT.

05

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
GADSDEN     47  71  44  64  37 /  90  10  10  10   0
ANNISTON    49  72  46  64  38 /  80  10  10  10   0
BIRMINGHAM  48  73  48  66  40 /  90   0  10  10   0
TUSCALOOSA  48  76  49  67  42 /  70   0   0   0   0
CALERA      50  74  49  66  42 /  80   0   0   0   0
AUBURN      53  73  50  66  42 /  70  10   0   0   0
MONTGOMERY  54  76  51  72  43 /  60   0   0   0   0
TROY        56  76  52  71  44 /  50  10   0   0   0

&&

.BMX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
WIND ADVISORY UNTIL 10 PM CDT THIS EVENING FOR ALL OF CENTRAL
ALABAMA.

&&

HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BIRMINGHAM AL
442 PM CDT WED APR 6 2016

ALZ011>015-017>050-080045-
MARION-LAMAR-FAYETTE-WINSTON-WALKER-BLOUNT-ETOWAH-CALHOUN-CHEROKEE-
CLEBURNE-PICKENS-TUSCALOOSA-JEFFERSON-SHELBY-ST. CLAIR-TALLADEGA-
CLAY-RANDOLPH-SUMTER-GREENE-HALE-PERRY-BIBB-CHILTON-COOSA-TALLAPOOSA-
CHAMBERS-MARENGO-DALLAS-AUTAUGA-LOWNDES-ELMORE-MONTGOMERY-MACON-
BULLOCK-LEE-RUSSELL-PIKE-BARBOUR-
442 PM CDT WED APR 6 2016

THIS HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK IS FOR THE COUNTIES SERVED BY THE
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE OFFICE IN BIRMINGHAM.

.DAY ONE...TONIGHT.

SEVERE STORMS ARE POSSIBLE WITH THE POSSIBILITY OF DAMAGING WINDS
AND LARGE HAIL. THESE STORMS ARE POSSIBLE GENERALLY BETWEEN 4 PM
AND MIDNIGHT. THESE STORMS WILL BE POSSIBLE NORTH OF A LINE FROM
ALICEVILLE TO CLANTON TO OPELIKA.

WINDY CONDITIONS WILL CONTINUE THROUGH THIS EVENING. SUSTAINED
WINDS WILL BE 15 TO 25 MPH WITH A FEW GUSTS TO AROUND 35 MPH.
THESE CONDITIONS WILL BE POSSIBLE THROUGH AROUND 10 PM FOR ALL OF
CENTRAL ALABAMA.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...THURSDAY THROUGH TUESDAY.

A COLD FRONT WILL DROP TEMPERATURES OVER THE WEEKEND. MORNING
LOWS ON SUNDAY ACROSS THE NORTHERN AREAS WILL HAVE THE POTENTIAL
TO REACH 32 DEGREES. A LIGHT FREEZE MAY BE POSSIBLE FOR A FEW
HOURS. AT THIS TIME...CONFIDENCE IS LOW IN THE EXTENT OF THE
FREEZING CONDITIONS. STAY TUNED FOR UPDATES THROUGH THE WEEK.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

ACTIVATION OF STORM SPOTTERS AND EMERGENCY MANAGEMENT MAY BE
NECESSARY THROUGH THIS EVENING.

SPECIAL WEATHER STATEMENT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BIRMINGHAM AL
702 PM CDT WED APR 6 2016

ALZ019-026-070045-
CALHOUN AL-ST. CLAIR AL-
702 PM CDT WED APR 6 2016

...SIGNIFICANT WEATHER ADVISORY FOR CALHOUN AND EAST CENTRAL ST.
CLAIR COUNTIES UNTIL 745 PM CDT...

AT 702 PM CDT...DOPPLER RADAR WAS TRACKING A STRONG THUNDERSTORM NEAR
RAGLAND...OR 14 MILES WEST OF SAKS...MOVING NORTHEAST AT 40 MPH.

NICKEL SIZE HAIL AND WIND GUSTS UP TO 50 MPH WILL BE POSSIBLE WITH
THIS STORM.

LOCATIONS IMPACTED INCLUDE...
ANNISTON...JACKSONVILLE...PIEDMONT...SAKS...GLENCOE...WEAVER...RAGLAND...
OHATCHEE...NEELY HENRY LAKE...ALEXANDRIA...JACKSONVILLE STATE
UNIVERSITY...SOUTHSIDE...KNIGHTENS CROSSROADS...NEELY HENRY DAM...
WELLINGTON AND SULPHUR SPRINGS.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

TORRENTIAL RAINFALL IS ALSO OCCURRING WITH THIS STORM...AND MAY LEAD
TO LOCALIZED FLOODING. DO NOT DRIVE YOUR VEHICLE THROUGH FLOODED
ROADWAYS.

FREQUENT CLOUD TO GROUND LIGHTNING IS OCCURRING WITH THIS STORM.
LIGHTNING CAN STRIKE 10 MILES AWAY FROM A THUNDERSTORM. SEEK A SAFE
SHELTER INSIDE A BUILDING OR VEHICLE.

THIS STORM MAY INTENSIFY...SO BE CERTAIN TO MONITOR LOCAL RADIO
STATIONS AND AVAILABLE TELEVISION STATIONS FOR ADDITIONAL INFORMATION
AND POSSIBLE WARNINGS FROM THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE.

&&

LAT...LON 3388 8564 3385 8564 3384 8559 3380 8559
      3379 8562 3378 8562 3364 8602 3367 8605
      3368 8615 3379 8617 3386 8600 3389 8599
      3391 8593 3391 8590 3392 8590 3395 8584
      3393 8574 3397 8574 3395 8553 3389 8553
TIME...MOT...LOC 0002Z 245DEG 34KT 3374 8610

32/DAVIS

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BIRMINGHAM AL
736 PM CDT WED APR 06 2016

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

0734 PM     HAIL             JACKSONVILLE            33.81N 85.76W
04/06/2016  E0.50 INCH       CALHOUN            AL   PUBLIC

            DIME SIZE HAIL REPORTED IN JACKSONVILLE, AL

&&

CBAIRD

SPECIAL WEATHER STATEMENT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BIRMINGHAM AL
737 PM CDT WED APR 6 2016

ALZ019>021-070100-
CALHOUN AL-CHEROKEE AL-CLEBURNE AL-
737 PM CDT WED APR 6 2016

...SIGNIFICANT WEATHER ADVISORY FOR SOUTHEASTERN CHEROKEE...
NORTHEASTERN CLEBURNE AND NORTHEASTERN CALHOUN COUNTIES UNTIL 800 PM
CDT...

AT 736 PM CDT...DOPPLER RADAR WAS TRACKING A STRONG THUNDERSTORM NEAR
JACKSONVILLE STATE UNIVERSITY...OR NEAR PIEDMONT...MOVING EAST AT 40
MPH.

NICKEL SIZE HAIL AND WIND GUSTS UP TO 50 MPH WILL BE POSSIBLE WITH
THIS STORM.

LOCATIONS IMPACTED INCLUDE...
JACKSONVILLE...PIEDMONT...PLEASANT GAP...JACKSONVILLE STATE UNIVERSITY...
KNIGHTENS CROSSROADS...OAK LEVEL...SPRING GARDEN...BORDEN SPRINGS AND
LIBERTY HILL.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

TORRENTIAL RAINFALL IS ALSO OCCURRING WITH THIS STORM...AND MAY LEAD
TO LOCALIZED FLOODING. DO NOT DRIVE YOUR VEHICLE THROUGH FLOODED
ROADWAYS.

FREQUENT CLOUD TO GROUND LIGHTNING IS OCCURRING WITH THIS STORM.
LIGHTNING CAN STRIKE 10 MILES AWAY FROM A THUNDERSTORM. SEEK A SAFE
SHELTER INSIDE A BUILDING OR VEHICLE.

THIS STORM MAY INTENSIFY...SO BE CERTAIN TO MONITOR LOCAL RADIO
STATIONS AND AVAILABLE TELEVISION STATIONS FOR ADDITIONAL INFORMATION
AND POSSIBLE WARNINGS FROM THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE.

&&

LAT...LON 3376 8576 3393 8581 3394 8578 3393 8574
      3396 8574 3409 8542 3385 8538
TIME...MOT...LOC 0036Z 249DEG 36KT 3388 8569

32/DAVIS

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BIRMINGHAM AL
742 PM CDT WED APR 06 2016

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

0739 PM     HAIL             JACKSONVILLE            33.81N 85.76W
04/06/2016  E0.88 INCH       CALHOUN            AL   PUBLIC

            NICKEL SIZE HAIL REPORTED IN JACKSONVILLE, AL

&&

CBAIRD

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