Special Weather Statement, NWS Birmingham, AL

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BIRMINGHAM AL
1230 PM CST TUE MAR 1 2016

.UPDATE...
MESOSCALE UPDATE.

&&

.DISCUSSION...

AS EXPECTED...THE CURRENT CONVECTIVE LINE OVER NW ALABAMA IS
RUNNING OUT OF STEAM PROBABLY FOR TWO REASONS...THE INSTABILITY
AHEAD OF IT IS MARGINAL AT BEST AND THE LIFT IS MEAGER AS THE LINE
OUTRUNS THE ACTUAL FRONT.  HOWEVER...IN THINKING AHEAD FOR LATER
THIS AFTERNOON AND EVENING...LAPSE RATES WILL CONTINUE TO STEEPEN AS
LOW LEVEL HEATING AND THE HIGHER SUN ANGLE WILL ALLOW FOR SOME
MODERATE SURFACE WARMING.  WE ARE ALREADY SEEING A LOT OF BREAKS IN
THE VISIBLE SATELLITE.  MORE IMPORTANTLY THOUGH IS THE COOLING
ALOFT. IT IS ALREADY AROUND -16C AT 500MB WHICH IS COLD FOR
ALABAMA...AND THERE IS SOME CAA WITH WESTERLY WINDS BLOWING IN AHEAD
OF THE CONVERGENCE BANDS.  FEELINGS ARE THAT THE MODELS MAY ACTUALLY
BE UNDERPERFORMING ON THE INSTABILITY OR POTENTIAL INSTABILITY
ACROSS MUCH OF THE I20...SOUTHWARD CORRIDOR.  SHEAR AND LIFT
CONTINUE TO HAVE SOME QUESTION MARKS.  THE DEEP LAYER SHEAR IS MORE
THAN SUFFICIENT WITH 0-6KM MAGNITUDES >60KTS...BUT THE LOW LEVEL
TURNING LOOKS VEERED AROUND TO THE SOUTHWEST.  THE DEEP LAYER
DIRECTIONAL COMPONENT LOOKS TO BE VEERED ENOUGH COMPARED TO FRONT TO
FORM CELLULAR CONVECTION ONCE THE LIFT AND INSTABILITY BECOME
SUFFICIENT.

ADDING IT ALL TOGETHER...CELLULAR CONVECTION WILL BE LIKELY IN THE
CONFLUENCE BANDS MOVING UP FROM THE SOUTHWEST LATER TODAY.
SUPERCELLS WILL ALSO BE IN THE CARDS WITH THE HIGHER 0-6KM SHEAR
VECTOR SPEED AND ORIENTATION.  HOWEVER...THE LIKELIHOOD OF TORNADO
FORMATION SEEMS TO BE TRENDING DOWNWARD OR WEAKER WITH TIME AS THE
SURFACE WINDS VEER AND MORE UNIDIRECTIONAL FLOW SETS UP AT LOW
LEVELS.  WE WILL LEAVE THE POSSIBILITY OF AN ISOLATED TORNADO OR
TWO...BUT IT WOULD TAKE AN INORDINATE AMOUNT OF INSTABILITY WITH THE
REDUCTION IN LOW LEVEL WIND SHEAR. STRAIGHT-LINE WIND AND ESPECIALLY
HAIL THREATS WILL BE ON THE INCREASE AS WE BECOME COOLER ALOFT AND
MID LEVEL LAPSE RATES CONTINUE TO STEEPEN AS THE EVENT UNFOLDS.

A 21Z SOUNDING IS PLANNED TO CONFIRM OR REJECT THIS ANALYSIS.

17/KLAWS

&&

.AVIATION...
18Z TAF DISCUSSION.

SCATTERED TO BROKEN 2000-2500FT DECK CAUSING CIGS TO BOUNCE BETWEEN
MVFR AND VFR AT MID DAY. A LINE OF TS WILL MOVE INTO WEST CENTRAL
ALABAMA OVER THE NEXT HOUR...GRADUALLY LIFTING NORTHEASTWARD. THE
SOUTHERN EXTENT OF THE LINE WILL LIKELY SKIRT TCL AND BHM...AND WITH
A LOWER CONFIDENCE...EET...ASN..AND ANB...THROUGH MID AFTERNOON.
HAVE INCLUDED SHRA AND VCTS AT NORTHERN TERMINALS TO ACCOUNT FOR
THIS. AS THE LINE PASSES...WINDS WILL REMAIN GUSTY AT TIMES FROM THE
SOUTHWEST.

ADDITIONAL TS DEVELOPMENT IS EXPECTED THIS AFTERNOON AND EVENING
ALONG THE LINGERING FRONTAL BOUNDARY...WHICH WILL PUSH ACROSS THE
AREA AFFECTING ALL TERMINALS WITH 2-3 HOURS OF TSRA. EXPECT
REDUCTIONS IN VIS AND WIND GUSTS WITH ANY TS. WILL INCLUDE GUSTS OF
25KTS...BUT STRONGER STORMS WILL PRODUCE HIGHER GUSTS. BEHIND THE
EXITING LINE OF STORMS...WINDS WILL SHIFT TO THE NORTHWEST REMAINING
AT 10KTS OVERNIGHT WITH MVFR CIGS.

14

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...

SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS WILL SPREAD ACROSS CENTRAL ALABAMA THIS
AFTERNOON AND THIS EVENING AHEAD OF A STRONG COLD FRONT. COLDER
AND DRIER CONDITIONS WEDNESDAY. ANOTHER LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM WILL
BRING RAIN INTO THE AREA ON THURSDAY...WITH ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS.
COLDER CONDITIONS AGAIN ON FRIDAY WITH A WARM-UP HEADING INTO THE
WEEKEND. PATCHY FROST POSSIBLE THURSDAY MORNING AND AGAIN
SATURDAY MORNING.

&&

.BMX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.

&&

HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BIRMINGHAM AL
1219 PM CST TUE MAR 1 2016

ALZ011>015-017>050-022130-
MARION-LAMAR-FAYETTE-WINSTON-WALKER-BLOUNT-ETOWAH-CALHOUN-CHEROKEE-
CLEBURNE-PICKENS-TUSCALOOSA-JEFFERSON-SHELBY-ST. CLAIR-TALLADEGA-
CLAY-RANDOLPH-SUMTER-GREENE-HALE-PERRY-BIBB-CHILTON-COOSA-TALLAPOOSA-
CHAMBERS-MARENGO-DALLAS-AUTAUGA-LOWNDES-ELMORE-MONTGOMERY-MACON-
BULLOCK-LEE-RUSSELL-PIKE-BARBOUR-
1219 PM CST TUE MAR 1 2016

THIS HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK IS FOR THE COUNTIES SERVED BY THE
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE OFFICE IN BIRMINGHAM.

.DAY ONE...THIS AFTERNOON AND TONIGHT.

SEVERE STORMS ARE POSSIBLE ACROSS PORTIONS OF CENTRAL ALABAMA
FROM THROUGH 11 PM. THE THREAT AREA IS EXPECTED TO BE NORTH OF A
LINE FROM TROY TO AUBURN. THE MAIN THREATS WILL BE DAMAGING WINDS
UP TO 70 MPH AND HAIL UP TO QUARTER SIZE...BUT A BRIEF TORNADO
CANNOT BE RULED OUT.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...WEDNESDAY THROUGH MONDAY.

NO HAZARDOUS WEATHER IS EXPECTED AT THIS TIME.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

ACTIVATION OF STORM SPOTTERS AND EMERGENCY MANAGEMENT MAY BE
NEEDED THIS AFTERNOON AND TONIGHT.

SPECIAL WEATHER STATEMENT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BIRMINGHAM AL
455 PM CST TUE MAR 1 2016

ALZ024-012345-
JEFFERSON AL-
455 PM CST TUE MAR 1 2016

...SIGNIFICANT WEATHER ADVISORY FOR JEFFERSON COUNTY UNTIL 545 PM
CST...

AT 455 PM CST...DOPPLER RADAR WAS TRACKING A LINE OF STRONG
THUNDERSTORMS ALONG A LINE EXTENDING FROM BURNWELL TO NEAR WEST
JEFFERSON TO 8 MILES SOUTH OF GORGAS STEAM PLANT...AND MOVING EAST AT
45 MPH.

PEA SIZE HAIL AND WINDS IN EXCESS OF 40 MPH WILL BE POSSIBLE WITH
THESE STORMS.

LOCATIONS IMPACTED INCLUDE...
BIRMINGHAM...VESTAVIA HILLS...HOMEWOOD...MOUNTAIN BROOK...
TRUSSVILLE...GARDENDALE...IRONDALE...LEEDS...MOODY...FAIRFIELD...
FULTONDALE...CENTER POINT...PLEASANT GROVE...CLAY...PINSON...
TARRANT...MIDFIELD...ADAMSVILLE...WARRIOR AND KIMBERLY.

THIS INCLUDES THE FOLLOWING HIGHWAYS...
 INTERSTATE 65 BETWEEN MILE MARKERS 256 AND 281.
 INTERSTATE 459 BETWEEN MILE MARKERS 23 AND 33.
 INTERSTATE 59 BETWEEN MILE MARKERS 130 AND 143.
 INTERSTATE 20 BETWEEN MILE MARKERS 118 AND 140.

LAT...LON 3377 8665 3376 8654 3366 8653 3362 8655
      3356 8655 3355 8652 3353 8652 3351 8657
      3347 8661 3347 8667 3344 8670 3352 8726
      3355 8719 3358 8720 3361 8718 3363 8710
      3366 8709 3366 8706 3379 8700 3382 8672
TIME...MOT...LOC 2255Z 270DEG 40KT 3371 8710 3363 8711 3354 8725

87/GRANTHAM

SPECIAL WEATHER STATEMENT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BIRMINGHAM AL
517 PM CST TUE MAR 1 2016

ALZ023-024-020000-
TUSCALOOSA AL-JEFFERSON AL-
517 PM CST TUE MAR 1 2016

...SIGNIFICANT WEATHER ADVISORY FOR NORTHEASTERN TUSCALOOSA AND
SOUTHERN JEFFERSON COUNTIES UNTIL 600 PM CST...

AT 517 PM CST...DOPPLER RADAR WAS TRACKING A LINE OF STRONG
THUNDERSTORMS ALONG A LINE EXTENDING FROM NEAR OAK GROVE TO DEERLICK
CREEK CAMPGROUNDS...AND MOVING EAST AT 55 MPH.

PEA SIZE HAIL AND WINDS IN EXCESS OF 40 MPH WILL BE POSSIBLE WITH
THESE STORMS.

LOCATIONS IMPACTED INCLUDE...
SOUTHWESTERN BIRMINGHAM...NORTHERN TUSCALOOSA...HOOVER...VESTAVIA
HILLS...BESSEMER...HOMEWOOD...NORTHPORT...MOUNTAIN BROOK...
HUEYTOWN...FAIRFIELD...HOLT...PLEASANT GROVE...MIDFIELD...BRIGHTON...
LIPSCOMB...LAKE VIEW...BROOKWOOD...SYLVAN SPRINGS...VANCE AND NORTH
JOHNS.

THIS INCLUDES THE FOLLOWING HIGHWAYS...
 INTERSTATE 65 BETWEEN MILE MARKERS 250 AND 258.
 INTERSTATE 459 BETWEEN MILE MARKERS 6 AND 19.
 INTERSTATE 20 BETWEEN MILE MARKERS 97 AND 118.

LAT...LON 3325 8757 3352 8730 3347 8660 3347 8667
      3342 8672 3342 8675 3337 8678 3336 8683
      3333 8683 3333 8689 3330 8693 3328 8693
      3327 8697 3325 8698 3325 8708 3322 8710
      3324 8714 3319 8720
TIME...MOT...LOC 2317Z 275DEG 47KT 3351 8720 3327 8744

87/GRANTHAM

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BIRMINGHAM AL
535 PM CST TUE MAR 01 2016

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

0512 PM     TSTM WND DMG     4 NW FAIRFIELD          33.52N 86.96W
03/01/2016                   JEFFERSON          AL   PUBLIC

            TREE REPORTED DOWN. TIME ESTIMATED BY RADAR.

&&

JH

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BIRMINGHAM AL
600 PM CST TUE MAR 01 2016

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

0545 PM     TSTM WND DMG     4 SSW BESSEMER          33.33N 86.98W
03/01/2016                   JEFFERSON          AL   FIRE DEPT/RESCUE

            TREE REPORTED DOWN.

0543 PM     TSTM WND DMG     4 SSW BESSEMER          33.33N 86.98W
03/01/2016                   JEFFERSON          AL   PUBLIC

            SIGNIFICANT DAMAGE REPORTED AT BENT BROOK GOLF COURSE.
            POSSIBLE DAMAGE TO VEHICLES. SEVERAL TREES DOWN. COUNTY

            ROAD 52 BLOCKED BY DOWNED TREES. TIME ESTIMATED BY RADAR.

&&

JH

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BIRMINGHAM AL
603 PM CST TUE MAR 01 2016

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

0547 PM     HAIL             4 WSW BESSEMER          33.34N 87.03W
03/01/2016  M1.75 INCH       JEFFERSON          AL   AMATEUR RADIO

            GOLF BALL SIZED HAIL REPORTED.

&&

JH

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