Alert archive / Alabama / Special Weather Statements in 2016

Special Weather Statement, NWS Birmingham, AL

March 1, 2016Marion County, Winston County, Alabama

NWS Birmingham, AL issued this special weather statement at Mar 1, 2016, 4:02 PM CST for Marion County, Winston County, Alabama. It was in force for 43 min. No storm report in the archive falls inside the area while it was in force.

The area

The outline as issued.

The facts

Issued: Mar 1, 2016, 4:02 PM CST (22:02 UTC)
Expired: Mar 1, 2016, 4:45 PM CST
In force: 43 min
Issued by: NWS Birmingham, AL

Counties Marion County, AL, Winston County, AL

The radar

The Columbus AFB radar (KGWX), 87 km from the middle of the area, began a volume at 22:05 UTC, the scan nearest the moment this went out.

Open the radar archive at this moment

The archived warnings, watches and discussions in force at that minute are drawn over the scan, this one among them.

The nearest sounding before it

Birmingham, AL (KBMX), launched 12:00Z, 10.0 hours before the alert went out and 131 km from the middle of its area. This is the routine balloon launch nearest before it, the air the forecaster had in hand, not a measurement taken for the alert.

Skew-T log-p

Temperature in red, dew point in green, the mixed-layer parcel dashed.

Hodograph

The wind turning with height, colored by layer: ground to 1 km, 1 to 3 km, 3 to 6 km, 6 to 10 km.

Mixed-layer CAPE: 23 J/kg
Mixed-layer CIN: -70 J/kg
Mixed-layer LCL: 896 m above ground
0-6 km bulk shear: 41 kt
0-1 km storm-relative helicity: 72 m²/s²
0-3 km storm-relative helicity: 91 m²/s²
Significant tornado parameter: 0.0
Supercell composite: 0.0

Open this sounding in Storm Lab

The text

As transmitted.

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What forecasters said that day

The local office's own words before this special weather statement went out, as it sent them, from the Iowa Environmental Mesonet's archive of National Weather Service text.

NWS Birmingham, AL wrote its last area forecast discussion before this special weather statement went out at Mar 1, 12:30 PM CST, 3 hours 32 minutes earlier.

Area forecast discussion, Mar 1, 12:30 PM CST, 3 hours 32 minutes before

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BIRMINGHAM AL
1230 PM CST TUE MAR 1 2016

.UPDATE...
MESOSCALE UPDATE.

&&

.DISCUSSION...

AS EXPECTED...THE CURRENT CONVECTIVE LINE OVER NW ALABAMA IS
RUNNING OUT OF STEAM PROBABLY FOR TWO REASONS...THE INSTABILITY
AHEAD OF IT IS MARGINAL AT BEST AND THE LIFT IS MEAGER AS THE LINE
OUTRUNS THE ACTUAL FRONT.  HOWEVER...IN THINKING AHEAD FOR LATER
THIS AFTERNOON AND EVENING...LAPSE RATES WILL CONTINUE TO STEEPEN AS
LOW LEVEL HEATING AND THE HIGHER SUN ANGLE WILL ALLOW FOR SOME
MODERATE SURFACE WARMING.  WE ARE ALREADY SEEING A LOT OF BREAKS IN
THE VISIBLE SATELLITE.  MORE IMPORTANTLY THOUGH IS THE COOLING
ALOFT. IT IS ALREADY AROUND -16C AT 500MB WHICH IS COLD FOR
ALABAMA...AND THERE IS SOME CAA WITH WESTERLY WINDS BLOWING IN AHEAD
OF THE CONVERGENCE BANDS.  FEELINGS ARE THAT THE MODELS MAY ACTUALLY
BE UNDERPERFORMING ON THE INSTABILITY OR POTENTIAL INSTABILITY
ACROSS MUCH OF THE I20...SOUTHWARD CORRIDOR.  SHEAR AND LIFT
CONTINUE TO HAVE SOME QUESTION MARKS.  THE DEEP LAYER SHEAR IS MORE
THAN SUFFICIENT WITH 0-6KM MAGNITUDES >60KTS...BUT THE LOW LEVEL
TURNING LOOKS VEERED AROUND TO THE SOUTHWEST.  THE DEEP LAYER
DIRECTIONAL COMPONENT LOOKS TO BE VEERED ENOUGH COMPARED TO FRONT TO
FORM CELLULAR CONVECTION ONCE THE LIFT AND INSTABILITY BECOME
SUFFICIENT.

ADDING IT ALL TOGETHER...CELLULAR CONVECTION WILL BE LIKELY IN THE
CONFLUENCE BANDS MOVING UP FROM THE SOUTHWEST LATER TODAY.
SUPERCELLS WILL ALSO BE IN THE CARDS WITH THE HIGHER 0-6KM SHEAR
VECTOR SPEED AND ORIENTATION.  HOWEVER...THE LIKELIHOOD OF TORNADO
FORMATION SEEMS TO BE TRENDING DOWNWARD OR WEAKER WITH TIME AS THE
SURFACE WINDS VEER AND MORE UNIDIRECTIONAL FLOW SETS UP AT LOW
LEVELS.  WE WILL LEAVE THE POSSIBILITY OF AN ISOLATED TORNADO OR
TWO...BUT IT WOULD TAKE AN INORDINATE AMOUNT OF INSTABILITY WITH THE
REDUCTION IN LOW LEVEL WIND SHEAR. STRAIGHT-LINE WIND AND ESPECIALLY
HAIL THREATS WILL BE ON THE INCREASE AS WE BECOME COOLER ALOFT AND
MID LEVEL LAPSE RATES CONTINUE TO STEEPEN AS THE EVENT UNFOLDS.

A 21Z SOUNDING IS PLANNED TO CONFIRM OR REJECT THIS ANALYSIS.

17/KLAWS

&&

.AVIATION...
18Z TAF DISCUSSION.

SCATTERED TO BROKEN 2000-2500FT DECK CAUSING CIGS TO BOUNCE BETWEEN
MVFR AND VFR AT MID DAY. A LINE OF TS WILL MOVE INTO WEST CENTRAL
ALABAMA OVER THE NEXT HOUR...GRADUALLY LIFTING NORTHEASTWARD. THE
SOUTHERN EXTENT OF THE LINE WILL LIKELY SKIRT TCL AND BHM...AND WITH
A LOWER CONFIDENCE...EET...ASN..AND ANB...THROUGH MID AFTERNOON.
HAVE INCLUDED SHRA AND VCTS AT NORTHERN TERMINALS TO ACCOUNT FOR
THIS. AS THE LINE PASSES...WINDS WILL REMAIN GUSTY AT TIMES FROM THE
SOUTHWEST.

ADDITIONAL TS DEVELOPMENT IS EXPECTED THIS AFTERNOON AND EVENING
ALONG THE LINGERING FRONTAL BOUNDARY...WHICH WILL PUSH ACROSS THE
AREA AFFECTING ALL TERMINALS WITH 2-3 HOURS OF TSRA. EXPECT
REDUCTIONS IN VIS AND WIND GUSTS WITH ANY TS. WILL INCLUDE GUSTS OF
25KTS...BUT STRONGER STORMS WILL PRODUCE HIGHER GUSTS. BEHIND THE
EXITING LINE OF STORMS...WINDS WILL SHIFT TO THE NORTHWEST REMAINING
AT 10KTS OVERNIGHT WITH MVFR CIGS.

14

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...

SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS WILL SPREAD ACROSS CENTRAL ALABAMA THIS
AFTERNOON AND THIS EVENING AHEAD OF A STRONG COLD FRONT. COLDER
AND DRIER CONDITIONS WEDNESDAY. ANOTHER LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM WILL
BRING RAIN INTO THE AREA ON THURSDAY...WITH ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS.
COLDER CONDITIONS AGAIN ON FRIDAY WITH A WARM-UP HEADING INTO THE
WEEKEND. PATCHY FROST POSSIBLE THURSDAY MORNING AND AGAIN
SATURDAY MORNING.

&&

.BMX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.

&&

Hazardous weather outlook, Mar 1, 12:19 PM CST, 3 hours 43 minutes before

HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BIRMINGHAM AL
1219 PM CST TUE MAR 1 2016

ALZ011>015-017>050-022130-
MARION-LAMAR-FAYETTE-WINSTON-WALKER-BLOUNT-ETOWAH-CALHOUN-CHEROKEE-
CLEBURNE-PICKENS-TUSCALOOSA-JEFFERSON-SHELBY-ST. CLAIR-TALLADEGA-
CLAY-RANDOLPH-SUMTER-GREENE-HALE-PERRY-BIBB-CHILTON-COOSA-TALLAPOOSA-
CHAMBERS-MARENGO-DALLAS-AUTAUGA-LOWNDES-ELMORE-MONTGOMERY-MACON-
BULLOCK-LEE-RUSSELL-PIKE-BARBOUR-
1219 PM CST TUE MAR 1 2016

THIS HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK IS FOR THE COUNTIES SERVED BY THE
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE OFFICE IN BIRMINGHAM.

.DAY ONE...THIS AFTERNOON AND TONIGHT.

SEVERE STORMS ARE POSSIBLE ACROSS PORTIONS OF CENTRAL ALABAMA
FROM THROUGH 11 PM. THE THREAT AREA IS EXPECTED TO BE NORTH OF A
LINE FROM TROY TO AUBURN. THE MAIN THREATS WILL BE DAMAGING WINDS
UP TO 70 MPH AND HAIL UP TO QUARTER SIZE...BUT A BRIEF TORNADO
CANNOT BE RULED OUT.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...WEDNESDAY THROUGH MONDAY.

NO HAZARDOUS WEATHER IS EXPECTED AT THIS TIME.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

ACTIVATION OF STORM SPOTTERS AND EMERGENCY MANAGEMENT MAY BE
NEEDED THIS AFTERNOON AND TONIGHT.

In the hours before

Special weather statement, Mar 1, 2:24 PM CST, 1 hour 38 minutes before

SPECIAL WEATHER STATEMENT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BIRMINGHAM AL
224 PM CST TUE MAR 1 2016

ALZ011-014-012115-
MARION AL-WINSTON AL-
224 PM CST TUE MAR 1 2016

...SPECIAL WEATHER STATEMENT...

AT 224 PM CST...DOPPLER RADAR WAS TRACKING A STRONG THUNDERSTORM NEAR
GUIN...OR 8 MILES NORTHWEST OF WINFIELD...MOVING EAST AT 65 MPH.

PEA SIZE HAIL WILL BE POSSIBLE WITH THIS STORM.

LOCATIONS IMPACTED INCLUDE...
HAMILTON...LYNN...ARLEY...GUIN...DOUBLE SPRINGS...BRILLIANT...
ADDISON...NAUVOO...CAMP MCDOWELL...HELICON...SMITH LAKE...ASHBANK...
POPLAR SPRINGS...FALLS CITY...CORINTH REC AREA...HOUSTON RECREATIONAL
AREA...WINSTON FREE STATE BARN...NESMITH...LAKE BUTTAHATCHEE AND
HOUSTON.

LAT...LON 3399 8711 3399 8715 3400 8717 3400 8719
      3398 8720 3399 8722 3400 8764 3397 8764
      3397 8795 3402 8795 3402 8796 3411 8797
      3420 8711
TIME...MOT...LOC 2024Z 265DEG 57KT 3403 8787

87/GRANTHAM

Special weather statement, Mar 1, 4:02 PM CST, 0 minutes before

SPECIAL WEATHER STATEMENT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BIRMINGHAM AL
402 PM CST TUE MAR 1 2016

ALZ011-014-012245-
MARION AL-WINSTON AL-
402 PM CST TUE MAR 1 2016

...SIGNIFICANT WEATHER ADVISORY FOR WINSTON AND NORTHEASTERN MARION
COUNTIES UNTIL 445 PM CST...

AT 402 PM CST...DOPPLER RADAR WAS TRACKING A STRONG THUNDERSTORM OVER
HAMILTON...MOVING EAST AT 65 MPH.

DIME SIZE HAIL AND WINDS IN EXCESS OF 40 MPH WILL BE POSSIBLE WITH
THIS STORM.

LOCATIONS IMPACTED INCLUDE...
HAMILTON...HALEYVILLE...ARLEY...DOUBLE SPRINGS...ADDISON...SARDIS...
ASHRIDGE...CORINTH REC AREA...HELICON...BRUSHY LAKE...MORELAND...
INMANFIELD...HOUSTON RECREATIONAL AREA...NEEDMORE...BRINN...WINSTON
FREE STATE BARN...NESMITH...LAKE BUTTAHATCHEE...SMITH LAKE AND
HOUSTON.

LAT...LON 3430 8711 3411 8711 3406 8799 3419 8802
      3430 8741
TIME...MOT...LOC 2202Z 261DEG 58KT 3413 8794

87/GRANTHAM

The office that day

Everything else NWS Birmingham, AL issued on the same UTC day.

Issued	Product	Office	Counties	Lasted
Mar 1, 7:33 AM CST	Dense Fog Advisory	BMX	Autauga, Barbour, Bullock, Dallas, Elmore, Lee and 7 more	2 hr
Mar 1, 2:24 PM CST	Special Weather Statement	BMX	Winston	51 min
Mar 1, 4:23 PM CST	Special Weather Statement	BMX	Marion	37 min
Mar 1, 4:34 PM CST	Special Weather Statement	BMX	Pickens, Tuscaloosa	41 min
Mar 1, 4:55 PM CST	Special Weather Statement	BMX	Jefferson	50 min
Mar 1, 5:04 PM CST	Severe Thunderstorm Warning	BMX	Jefferson	56 min
Mar 1, 5:17 PM CST	Special Weather Statement	BMX	Tuscaloosa	43 min
Mar 1, 5:27 PM CST	Severe Thunderstorm Warning	BMX	Jefferson, Shelby, Tuscaloosa	63 min
Mar 1, 5:44 PM CST	Tornado Warning	BMX	Jefferson, Shelby	16 min

Nearby

Special Weather Statements in Alabama, 2016 Every special weather statement in 2016

Sources

The product and its follow-ups from the Iowa Environmental Mesonet's archive of National Weather Service and Storm Prediction Center text; the sounding from the Mesonet's radiosonde archive; radar from the NEXRAD Level II archive.