Severe Thunderstorm Warning 87, NWS Birmingham, AL

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Birmingham AL
332 PM CDT THU JUL 14 2016

.SHORT TERM...
Tonight through Friday night.

Two areas of concern for the short term. The first being our large
area of showers and thunderstorms that has been moving eastward
across Tennessee and across the northern portions of Alabama where
some strong winds, lots of lightning, heavy rain, and at times
marginal hail have been noted. A second area of more scattered
showers and thunderstorms exists across the south and west
central portions of the state being enhanced by a broad upper low
pressure system across the gulf coast. Think that this activity
should decrease as we lose daytime heating, but models are
indicating another possible convective system may move across the
northern portions of the area, but with some uncertainty, have
kept some pops in late and done a slow ramp back up of pops
before daybreak on Friday. Will reserve the higher pops for during
the day on Friday as a surface low pressure system moves out of
the Texas Panhandle and across Oklahoma/Arkansas and is expected
to drag a front closer to Alabama on during the day Friday with
with lots of available moisture available ahead of it.

08

.LONG TERM...
Saturday through Wednesday.

Weak mid/upper troughing will persist on Saturday and will lead to
enhanced rain chances for the area. By Sunday, the upper ridge to
our west begins to strengthen over the Central Plains and heights
start to increase in our neck of the woods, especially into Monday.
Rain chances will return to climatological norms with the best
chances in the E/SE along the eastern periphery of the ridge.
Convection will primarily be diurnally driven during this time. As
we look into the extended, models try to bring a frontal boundary
southward into the forecast area in the Tue/Wed time frame.
Scattered convection, at least, can be expected both days, and a few
showers/storms may linger into the overnight period with the front
still in the vicinity.

Temperatures will remain just above normal thru the period, with
highs in the low/mid 90s. With dew points remaining in the 70s, heat
index values could approach or exceed 105 degrees early next week.

19

&&

.AVIATION...
18Z TAF Discussion.

Two areas of concern this afternoon. The first is from a line of
TSTM approaching from the northwest, with outflow boundaries,
downburst winds, some large hail, and heavy rain at times with the
stronger cells possible especially across the northwest sections of
the state. Will be monitoring these storms as they progress
southeast today. Our second area of concern will just be for
activity developing during the afternoon and moving up from the
south. Have tried to time these threats appropriately in the TAFs.
We should have a lull in the late evening and possible some
development or another complex late bringing more activity. There
is some uncertainty for this late night complex and have not
mentioned VCTS again until Friday morning when better chances are
expected.

08

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...

Periods of showers and thunderstorms will continue off and on
through the next week, with the highest chances mainly now through
late Friday. No critical fire weather concerns with humid
conditions persisting.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
Gadsden     72  89  70  89  71 /  40  70  60  50  30
Anniston    72  89  71  88  71 /  40  60  60  50  30
Birmingham  75  89  73  89  74 /  40  70  60  50  30
Tuscaloosa  74  90  73  90  73 /  50  70  60  50  20
Calera      73  89  73  89  73 /  40  60  60  50  30
Auburn      74  89  73  90  73 /  40  60  60  50  30
Montgomery  74  93  74  92  74 /  40  60  60  50  30
Troy        73  90  72  91  72 /  40  60  50  50  30

&&

.BMX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
None.

&&

08/19

HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BIRMINGHAM AL
401 PM CDT THU JUL 14 2016

ALZ011>015-017>050-160015-
MARION-LAMAR-FAYETTE-WINSTON-WALKER-BLOUNT-ETOWAH-CALHOUN-CHEROKEE-
CLEBURNE-PICKENS-TUSCALOOSA-JEFFERSON-SHELBY-ST. CLAIR-TALLADEGA-
CLAY-RANDOLPH-SUMTER-GREENE-HALE-PERRY-BIBB-CHILTON-COOSA-TALLAPOOSA-
CHAMBERS-MARENGO-DALLAS-AUTAUGA-LOWNDES-ELMORE-MONTGOMERY-MACON-
BULLOCK-LEE-RUSSELL-PIKE-BARBOUR-
401 PM CDT THU JUL 14 2016

THIS HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK IS FOR THE COUNTIES SERVED BY THE
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE OFFICE IN BIRMINGHAM.

.DAY ONE...OUTLOOK THROUGH TONIGHT.

ISOLATED SEVERE STORMS ARE POSSIBLE, MAINLY EAST AND NORTH OF A
JASPER, TO BESSEMER, TO WEDOWEE THROUGH 9 PM. THE MAIN THREATS
WILL BE DAMAGING WIND GUSTS UP TO 60 MPH, LARGE HAIL, AND AREAS OF
LOCALLY HEAVY RAINFALL THAT COULD LEAD TO MINOR FLOODING DUE TO
THE SLOW MOVING NATURE OF THIS SYSTEM.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...FRIDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY.

DAYTIME TEMPERATURES ARE FORECAST TO CLIMB INTO THE MIDDLE TO
UPPER 90S EARLY NEXT WEEK AS A STRONG HIGH PRESSURE SYSTEM MOVES
CLOSER TO ALABAMA. HEAT INDICES COULD REACH 105 DEGREES OR HIGHER
ON SUNDAY, MONDAY, AND TUESDAY AFTERNOONS.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

ACTIVATION OF STORM SPOTTERS AND EMERGENCY MANAGEMENT MAY BE
NECESSARY THIS AFTERNOON AND EVENING.

SPECIAL WEATHER STATEMENT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BIRMINGHAM AL
359 PM CDT THU JUL 14 2016

ALZ035-036-142130-
CHILTON AL-COOSA AL-
359 PM CDT THU JUL 14 2016

...SIGNIFICANT WEATHER ADVISORY FOR EAST CENTRAL CHILTON AND SOUTHERN
COOSA COUNTIES UNTIL 430 PM CDT...

AT 359 PM CDT...DOPPLER RADAR WAS TRACKING A STRONG THUNDERSTORM OVER
DOLLAR...OR 11 MILES SOUTHWEST OF WEOGUFKA...MOVING EAST AT 20 MPH.

PEA SIZE HAIL AND WINDS IN EXCESS OF 40 MPH WILL BE POSSIBLE WITH
THIS STORM.

LOCATIONS IMPACTED INCLUDE...
ROCKFORD...BENTLEYVILLE...LYLE...SPEED...MITCHELL LAKE...
CREWSVILLE...HIGGINS FERRY PARK...MORIAH...DOLLAR...PENTONVILLE...
HISSOP AND MITCHELL DAM.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

TORRENTIAL RAINFALL IS ALSO OCCURRING WITH THIS STORM...AND MAY LEAD
TO LOCALIZED FLOODING. DO NOT DRIVE YOUR VEHICLE THROUGH FLOODED
ROADWAYS.

FREQUENT CLOUD TO GROUND LIGHTNING IS OCCURRING WITH THIS STORM.
LIGHTNING CAN STRIKE 10 MILES AWAY FROM A THUNDERSTORM. SEEK A SAFE
SHELTER INSIDE A BUILDING OR VEHICLE.

&&

LAT...LON 3276 8619 3275 8632 3277 8632 3277 8634
      3275 8634 3275 8638 3283 8657 3297 8651
      3297 8611
TIME...MOT...LOC 2059Z 274DEG 18KT 3288 8643

75

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BIRMINGHAM AL
404 PM CDT THU JUL 14 2016

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

0358 PM     TSTM WND DMG     1 ESE FULTONDALE        33.61N 86.78W
07/14/2016                   JEFFERSON          AL   PUBLIC

            TWO TREES REPORTED DOWN FROM THUNDERSTORM OUTFLOW WINDS.

&&

GSATTERW

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BIRMINGHAM AL
408 PM CDT THU JUL 14 2016

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

0358 PM     TSTM WND GST     FULTONDALE              33.62N 86.80W
07/14/2016  E50 MPH          JEFFERSON          AL   PUBLIC

            WIND GUSTS ESTIMATED AS HIGH AS 40-50 MPH.

&&

GSATTERW

SPECIAL WEATHER STATEMENT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BIRMINGHAM AL
408 PM CDT THU JUL 14 2016

ALZ024-025-142145-
JEFFERSON AL-SHELBY AL-
408 PM CDT THU JUL 14 2016

...SIGNIFICANT WEATHER ADVISORY FOR NORTHWESTERN SHELBY AND
SOUTHEASTERN JEFFERSON COUNTIES UNTIL 445 PM CDT...

AT 407 PM CDT...DOPPLER RADAR WAS TRACKING A STRONG THUNDERSTORM NEAR
BESSEMER...MOVING EAST AT 20 MPH.

PEA SIZE HAIL AND WINDS IN EXCESS OF 40 MPH WILL BE POSSIBLE WITH
THIS STORM.

LOCATIONS IMPACTED INCLUDE...
BIRMINGHAM...HOOVER...VESTAVIA HILLS...ALABASTER...BESSEMER...
HOMEWOOD...PELHAM...MOUNTAIN BROOK...HELENA...HUEYTOWN...IRONDALE...
FAIRFIELD...PLEASANT GROVE...MIDFIELD...BRIGHTON...
INDIAN SPRINGS VILLAGE...LIPSCOMB...SYLVAN SPRINGS...
MAYTOWN AND ROSS BRIDGE.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

FREQUENT CLOUD TO GROUND LIGHTNING IS OCCURRING WITH THIS STORM.
LIGHTNING CAN STRIKE 10 MILES AWAY FROM A THUNDERSTORM. SEEK A SAFE
SHELTER INSIDE A BUILDING OR VEHICLE.

&&

LAT...LON 3355 8666 3324 8668 3322 8703 3325 8703
      3325 8705 3353 8702
TIME...MOT...LOC 2107Z 274DEG 18KT 3331 8696

75

SPECIAL WEATHER STATEMENT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BIRMINGHAM AL
411 PM CDT THU JUL 14 2016

ALZ024-026-142145-
JEFFERSON AL-ST. CLAIR AL-
411 PM CDT THU JUL 14 2016

...SIGNIFICANT WEATHER ADVISORY FOR SOUTHWESTERN ST. CLAIR AND EAST
CENTRAL JEFFERSON COUNTIES UNTIL 445 PM CDT...

AT 411 PM CDT...DOPPLER RADAR WAS TRACKING STRONG THUNDERSTORMS ALONG
A LINE EXTENDING FROM NEAR ARGO TO BIRMINGHAM. MOVEMENT WAS EAST AT
55 MPH.

WINDS IN EXCESS OF 40 MPH WILL BE POSSIBLE WITH THESE STORMS.

LOCATIONS IMPACTED INCLUDE...
NORTHEASTERN BIRMINGHAM...VESTAVIA HILLS...MOUNTAIN BROOK...
TRUSSVILLE...IRONDALE...LEEDS...MOODY...SPRINGVILLE...ODENVILLE...
CENTER POINT...CLAY...MARGARET...ARGO...CHALKVILLE...BRANCHVILLE...
BARBER MOTORSPORTS PARK...GRAYSON VALLEY...ALTON...
SHOPS OF GRAND RIVER AND CALDWELL.

THESE STORMS MAY INTENSIFY...SO BE CERTAIN TO MONITOR LOCAL RADIO
STATIONS AND AVAILABLE TELEVISION STATIONS FOR ADDITIONAL INFORMATION
AND POSSIBLE WARNINGS FROM THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE.

LAT...LON 3384 8633 3350 8648 3355 8648 3355 8652
      3352 8652 3352 8656 3349 8659 3348 8674
      3377 8659 3377 8658 3380 8657 3380 8652
      3382 8647 3382 8643 3384 8641
TIME...MOT...LOC 2111Z 265DEG 46KT 3370 8654 3352 8672

75

SPECIAL WEATHER STATEMENT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BIRMINGHAM AL
419 PM CDT THU JUL 14 2016

ALZ017-026-142145-
BLOUNT AL-ST. CLAIR AL-
419 PM CDT THU JUL 14 2016

...SIGNIFICANT WEATHER ADVISORY FOR SOUTHEASTERN BLOUNT AND
NORTHWESTERN ST. CLAIR COUNTIES UNTIL 445 PM CDT...

AT 418 PM CDT...DOPPLER RADAR WAS TRACKING STRONG THUNDERSTORMS ALONG
A LINE EXTENDING FROM NEAR WALNUT GROVE TO NEAR DALLAS. MOVEMENT WAS
EAST AT 40 MPH.

WINDS IN EXCESS OF 40 MPH WILL BE POSSIBLE WITH THESE STORMS.

LOCATIONS IMPACTED INCLUDE...
ONEONTA...SPRINGVILLE...CLEVELAND...DALLAS...LOCUST FORK...ALTOONA...
SUSAN MOORE...TRAFFORD...ALLGOOD...FAIRVIEW...ROSA...COUNTY LINE...
INLAND LAKE...HIGHLAND LAKE...CALDWELL...HOLLY SPRINGS...EASLEY...
CLEAR SPRINGS...HENDRIX AND REMLAP.

LAT...LON 3407 8632 3405 8633 3399 8633 3394 8637
      3394 8633 3396 8632 3396 8631 3381 8633
      3376 8661 3377 8665 3378 8665 3384 8676
      3384 8678 3409 8637
TIME...MOT...LOC 2118Z 264DEG 34KT 3402 8621 3383 8660

75