Alert archive / Alabama / Flash Flood Watches in 2016

Flash Flood Watch 4, NWS Birmingham, AL

March 30, 201639 counties in Alabama

NWS Birmingham, AL issued this flash flood watch at Mar 30, 2016, 2:55 PM CDT for 39 counties in Alabama. It took effect at Mar 31, 2016, 4:00 AM CDT. It was in force for 42 hr.

The area

The counties it named.

The facts

Issued
Mar 30, 2016, 2:55 PM CDT (19:55 UTC)
In effect from
Mar 31, 2016, 4:00 AM CDT
Expired
Apr 1, 2016, 10:18 PM CDT
In force
42 hr
Issued by
NWS Birmingham, AL
Flood severity
None
All 39 counties

Autauga County, AL, Barbour County, AL, Bibb County, AL, Blount County, AL, Bullock County, AL, Calhoun County, AL, Chambers County, AL, Cherokee County, AL, Chilton County, AL, Clay County, AL, Cleburne County, AL, Coosa County, AL, Dallas County, AL, Elmore County, AL, Etowah County, AL, Fayette County, AL, Greene County, AL, Hale County, AL, Jefferson County, AL, Lamar County, AL, Lee County, AL, Lowndes County, AL, Macon County, AL, Marengo County, AL, Marion County, AL, Montgomery County, AL, Perry County, AL, Pickens County, AL, Pike County, AL, Randolph County, AL, Russell County, AL, Shelby County, AL, St. Clair County, AL, Sumter County, AL, Talladega County, AL, Tallapoosa County, AL, Tuscaloosa County, AL, Walker County, AL, Winston County, AL

The radar

The Birmingham radar (KBMX), 22 km from the middle of the area, began a volume at 19:53 UTC, the scan nearest the moment this went out.

Open the radar archive at this moment

The archived warnings, watches and discussions in force at that minute are drawn over the scan, this one among them.

The nearest sounding before it

Birmingham, AL (KBMX), launched 12:00Z, 7.9 hours before the alert went out and 23 km from the middle of its area. This is the routine balloon launch nearest before it, the air the forecaster had in hand, not a measurement taken for the alert.

Skew-T log-pSkew-T log-p diagram, Birmingham, AL at 12:00Z on 2016-03-30Temperature and dew point through the depth of the atmosphere, with the mixed-layer parcel. CAPE 0 joules per kilogram.LCL10008507005003002001001 km2 km3 km6 km9 km12 km15 km-30°-20°-10°0°10°20°30°40°
Temperature in red, dew point in green, the mixed-layer parcel dashed.
HodographHodograph, Birmingham, AL at 12:00Z on 2016-03-30The wind through the lowest 10 kilometers. Zero to 1 km storm-relative helicity 90 square meters per square second.19395878Sfc1 km3 km6 km9 kmRMLM
The wind turning with height, colored by layer: ground to 1 km, 1 to 3 km, 3 to 6 km, 6 to 10 km.
Mixed-layer CAPE
0 J/kg
Mixed-layer CIN
No buoyant parcel
Mixed-layer LCL
2304 m above ground
0-6 km bulk shear
13 kt
0-1 km storm-relative helicity
90 m²/s²
0-3 km storm-relative helicity
110 m²/s²
Significant tornado parameter
0.0
Supercell composite
0.0

Open this sounding in Storm Lab

The text

As transmitted.

442 
WGUS64 KBMX 301955
FFABMX

URGENT - IMMEDIATE BROADCAST REQUESTED
FLOOD WATCH
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BIRMINGHAM AL
255 PM CDT WED MAR 30 2016

...FLASH FLOODING POSSIBLE ACROSS ALL OF CENTRAL ALABAMA EARLY THURSDAY
MORNING THROUGH LATE FRIDAY NIGHT...

.A VERY MOIST AND UNSTABLE AIRMASS WILL PUSH INTO CENTRAL ALABAMA
DURING THE OVERNIGHT HOURS TONIGHT. DURING THE DAY ON
THURSDAY THROUGH THURSDAY NIGHT...MULTIPLE ROUNDS OF SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS ARE EXPECTED. THE BEST CHANCE OF FLASH FLOODING WILL
EXIST GENERALLY ALONG AND NORTH OF THE I-59 CORRIDOR THURSDAY
THROUGH THURSDAY NIGHT. THE FLASH FLOOD THREAT WILL THEN PUSH TO
THE SOUTH AND EAST FRIDAY MORNING ACROSS THE REMAINING COUNTIES IN
CENTRAL ALABAMA AND LAST THROUGH MIDNIGHT FRIDAY NIGHT.
THUNDERSTORMS WILL LIKELY MOVE ACROSS THE SAME AREAS MULTIPLE
TIMES IN SOME LOCATIONS...AND THE GREATEST FLASH FLOOD THREAT WILL
EXIST WHERE THAT OCCURS. UNCERTAINTIES REMAIN IN WHERE THE
GREATEST RAINFALL AMOUNTS WILL OCCUR...BUT THE POTENTIAL EXISTS
FOR FLASH FLOODING ACROSS ALL OF CENTRAL ALABAMA.

ALZ011>015-017>050-311200-
/O.NEW.KBMX.FF.A.0004.160331T0900Z-160402T0600Z/
/00000.0.ER.000000T0000Z.000000T0000Z.000000T0000Z.OO/
MARION-LAMAR-FAYETTE-WINSTON-WALKER-BLOUNT-ETOWAH-CALHOUN-
CHEROKEE-CLEBURNE-PICKENS-TUSCALOOSA-JEFFERSON-SHELBY-ST. CLAIR-
TALLADEGA-CLAY-RANDOLPH-SUMTER-GREENE-HALE-PERRY-BIBB-CHILTON-
COOSA-TALLAPOOSA-CHAMBERS-MARENGO-DALLAS-AUTAUGA-LOWNDES-ELMORE-
MONTGOMERY-MACON-BULLOCK-LEE-RUSSELL-PIKE-BARBOUR-
INCLUDING THE CITIES OF...HAMILTON...SULLIGENT...VERNON...
FAYETTE...DOUBLE SPRINGS...JASPER...ONEONTA...GADSDEN...
ANNISTON...CENTRE...HEFLIN...CARROLLTON...TUSCALOOSA...
BIRMINGHAM...HOOVER...COLUMBIANA...PELHAM...ALABASTER...
PELL CITY...MOODY...TALLADEGA...SYLACAUGA...ASHLAND...ROANOKE...
LIVINGSTON...EUTAW...GREENSBORO...MOUNDVILLE...MARION...
CENTREVILLE...CLANTON...ROCKFORD...ALEXANDER CITY...DADEVILLE...
VALLEY...LANETT...LAFAYETTE...DEMOPOLIS...LINDEN...SELMA...
PRATTVILLE...FORT DEPOSIT...HAYNEVILLE...WETUMPKA...TALLASSEE...
MONTGOMERY...TUSKEGEE...UNION SPRINGS...AUBURN...OPELIKA...
PHENIX CITY...TROY...EUFAULA
255 PM CDT WED MAR 30 2016

...FLASH FLOOD WATCH IN EFFECT FROM LATE TONIGHT THROUGH LATE
FRIDAY NIGHT...

THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE IN BIRMINGHAM HAS ISSUED A

* FLASH FLOOD WATCH FOR PORTIONS OF CENTRAL ALABAMA...EAST 
  CENTRAL ALABAMA...NORTHEAST ALABAMA...NORTHWEST ALABAMA... 
  SOUTHEAST ALABAMA AND WEST CENTRAL ALABAMA...INCLUDING THE 
  FOLLOWING AREAS...IN CENTRAL ALABAMA...AUTAUGA...BIBB... 
  BLOUNT...CHILTON...COOSA...DALLAS...ELMORE...JEFFERSON... 
  LOWNDES...MONTGOMERY...PERRY...SHELBY...ST. CLAIR...TALLADEGA 
  AND WALKER. IN EAST CENTRAL ALABAMA...CALHOUN...CHAMBERS... 
  CLAY...CLEBURNE...LEE...MACON...RANDOLPH...RUSSELL AND 
  TALLAPOOSA. IN NORTHEAST ALABAMA...CHEROKEE AND ETOWAH. IN 
  NORTHWEST ALABAMA...MARION AND WINSTON. IN SOUTHEAST ALABAMA...
   BARBOUR...BULLOCK AND PIKE. IN WEST CENTRAL ALABAMA... 
  FAYETTE...GREENE...HALE...LAMAR...MARENGO...PICKENS...SUMTER 
  AND TUSCALOOSA. 

* FROM LATE TONIGHT THROUGH LATE FRIDAY NIGHT

* 2 TO 4 INCHES OF RAINFALL ON AVERAGE WITH LOCALIZED HIGHER
  AMOUNTS ARE EXPECTED DUE TO MULTIPLE ROUNDS OF SHOWERS AND
  THUNDERSTORMS.

* LOCATIONS THAT WILL HAVE THE BEST CHANCE OF FLASH FLOODING WILL
  BE WHERE MULTIPLE ROUNDS OF THUNDERSTORMS MOVE ACROSS THE SAME
  AREAS. MINOR RIVER FLOODING IS ALSO POSSIBLE DUE TO HEAVY
  RAINFALL...ESPECIALLY FOR WESTERN ALABAMA RIVERS AND STREAM
  BASINS.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

A FLASH FLOOD WATCH MEANS THAT CONDITIONS MAY DEVELOP THAT LEAD
TO FLASH FLOODING. FLASH FLOODING IS A VERY DANGEROUS SITUATION.

YOU SHOULD MONITOR LATER FORECASTS AND BE PREPARED TO TAKE ACTION
SHOULD FLASH FLOOD WARNINGS BE ISSUED.

&&

$$
7 follow-up statements
408 
WGUS64 KBMX 310353
FFABMX

FLOOD WATCH
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BIRMINGHAM AL
1053 PM CDT WED MAR 30 2016

...FLASH FLOODING POSSIBLE ACROSS ALL OF CENTRAL ALABAMA EARLY
THURSDAY MORNING THROUGH LATE FRIDAY NIGHT...

.A VERY MOIST AND UNSTABLE AIRMASS WILL PUSH INTO CENTRAL ALABAMA
DURING THE OVERNIGHT HOURS TONIGHT. DURING THE DAY ON THURSDAY
THROUGH FRIDAY NIGHT...MULTIPLE ROUNDS OF SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS ARE EXPECTED. THE BEST CHANCE OF FLASH FLOODING WILL
EXIST GENERALLY ALONG AND NORTH OF THE I-59 CORRIDOR THURSDAY
THROUGH THURSDAY NIGHT. THE FLASH FLOOD THREAT WILL THEN PUSH TO
THE SOUTH AND EAST FRIDAY MORNING ACROSS THE REMAINING COUNTIES IN
CENTRAL ALABAMA AND LAST THROUGH MIDNIGHT FRIDAY NIGHT.
THUNDERSTORMS WILL LIKELY MOVE ACROSS THE SAME AREAS MULTIPLE
TIMES IN SOME LOCATIONS...AND THE GREATEST FLASH FLOOD THREAT WILL
EXIST WHERE THAT OCCURS. UNCERTAINTIES REMAIN IN WHERE THE
GREATEST RAINFALL AMOUNTS WILL OCCUR...BUT THE POTENTIAL EXISTS
FOR FLASH FLOODING ACROSS ALL OF CENTRAL ALABAMA.

ALZ011>015-017>050-311100-
/O.CON.KBMX.FF.A.0004.160331T0900Z-160402T0600Z/
/00000.0.ER.000000T0000Z.000000T0000Z.000000T0000Z.OO/
MARION-LAMAR-FAYETTE-WINSTON-WALKER-BLOUNT-ETOWAH-CALHOUN-
CHEROKEE-CLEBURNE-PICKENS-TUSCALOOSA-JEFFERSON-SHELBY-ST. CLAIR-
TALLADEGA-CLAY-RANDOLPH-SUMTER-GREENE-HALE-PERRY-BIBB-CHILTON-
COOSA-TALLAPOOSA-CHAMBERS-MARENGO-DALLAS-AUTAUGA-LOWNDES-ELMORE-
MONTGOMERY-MACON-BULLOCK-LEE-RUSSELL-PIKE-BARBOUR-
INCLUDING THE CITIES OF...HAMILTON...SULLIGENT...VERNON...
FAYETTE...DOUBLE SPRINGS...JASPER...ONEONTA...GADSDEN...
ANNISTON...CENTRE...HEFLIN...CARROLLTON...TUSCALOOSA...
BIRMINGHAM...HOOVER...COLUMBIANA...PELHAM...ALABASTER...
PELL CITY...MOODY...TALLADEGA...SYLACAUGA...ASHLAND...ROANOKE...
LIVINGSTON...EUTAW...GREENSBORO...MOUNDVILLE...MARION...
CENTREVILLE...CLANTON...ROCKFORD...ALEXANDER CITY...DADEVILLE...
VALLEY...LANETT...LAFAYETTE...DEMOPOLIS...LINDEN...SELMA...
PRATTVILLE...FORT DEPOSIT...HAYNEVILLE...WETUMPKA...TALLASSEE...
MONTGOMERY...TUSKEGEE...UNION SPRINGS...AUBURN...OPELIKA...
PHENIX CITY...TROY...EUFAULA
1053 PM CDT WED MAR 30 2016

...FLASH FLOOD WATCH REMAINS IN EFFECT FROM 4 AM CDT THURSDAY
THROUGH LATE FRIDAY NIGHT...

THE FLASH FLOOD WATCH CONTINUES FOR

* PORTIONS OF CENTRAL ALABAMA...EAST CENTRAL ALABAMA...NORTHEAST 
  ALABAMA...NORTHWEST ALABAMA...SOUTHEAST ALABAMA AND WEST 
  CENTRAL ALABAMA...INCLUDING THE FOLLOWING AREAS...IN CENTRAL 
  ALABAMA...AUTAUGA...BIBB...BLOUNT...CHILTON...COOSA...DALLAS...
   ELMORE...JEFFERSON...LOWNDES...MONTGOMERY...PERRY...SHELBY... 
  ST. CLAIR...TALLADEGA AND WALKER. IN EAST CENTRAL ALABAMA... 
  CALHOUN...CHAMBERS...CLAY...CLEBURNE...LEE...MACON... 
  RANDOLPH...RUSSELL AND TALLAPOOSA. IN NORTHEAST ALABAMA... 
  CHEROKEE AND ETOWAH. IN NORTHWEST ALABAMA...MARION AND 
  WINSTON. IN SOUTHEAST ALABAMA...BARBOUR...BULLOCK AND PIKE. IN 
  WEST CENTRAL ALABAMA...FAYETTE...GREENE...HALE...LAMAR... 
  MARENGO...PICKENS...SUMTER AND TUSCALOOSA. 

* FROM 4 AM CDT THURSDAY THROUGH LATE FRIDAY NIGHT.

* 2 TO 4 INCHES OF RAINFALL ON AVERAGE WITH LOCALIZED HIGHER 
  AMOUNTS ARE EXPECTED DUE TO MULTIPLE ROUNDS OF SHOWERS AND 
  THUNDERSTORMS. 

* LOCATIONS THAT WILL HAVE THE BEST CHANCE OF FLASH FLOODING 
  WILL BE WHERE MULTIPLE ROUNDS OF THUNDERSTORMS MOVE ACROSS THE 
  SAME AREAS. MINOR RIVER FLOODING IS ALSO POSSIBLE DUE TO HEAVY 
  RAINFALL...ESPECIALLY FOR WESTERN ALABAMA RIVERS AND STREAM 
  BASINS. 

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

A FLASH FLOOD WATCH MEANS THAT CONDITIONS MAY DEVELOP THAT LEAD
TO FLASH FLOODING. FLASH FLOODING IS A VERY DANGEROUS SITUATION.

YOU SHOULD MONITOR LATER FORECASTS AND BE PREPARED TO TAKE ACTION
SHOULD FLASH FLOOD WARNINGS BE ISSUED.

&&

$$
273 
WGUS64 KBMX 310947
FFABMX

FLOOD WATCH
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BIRMINGHAM AL
447 AM CDT THU MAR 31 2016

...FLASH FLOODING POSSIBLE ACROSS ALL OF CENTRAL ALABAMA THROUGH
LATE FRIDAY NIGHT...

.MULTIPLE ROUNDS OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS ARE EXPECTED ACROSS
CENTRAL ALABAMA THROUGH FRIDAY NIGHT. THE BEST CHANCE OF FLASH
FLOODING WILL EXIST GENERALLY ALONG AND NORTH OF THE I-59 CORRIDOR
TODAY AND TONIGHT. THE FLASH FLOOD THREAT WILL THEN PUSH TO THE
SOUTH AND EAST FRIDAY MORNING ACROSS THE REMAINING COUNTIES IN
CENTRAL ALABAMA AND LAST THROUGH MIDNIGHT FRIDAY NIGHT.
THUNDERSTORMS WILL LIKELY MOVE ACROSS THE SAME AREAS MULTIPLE
TIMES IN SOME LOCATIONS...AND THE GREATEST FLASH FLOOD THREAT WILL
EXIST WHERE THAT OCCURS. UNCERTAINTIES REMAIN IN WHERE THE
GREATEST RAINFALL AMOUNTS WILL OCCUR...BUT THE POTENTIAL EXISTS
FOR FLASH FLOODING ACROSS ALL OF CENTRAL ALABAMA.

ALZ011>015-017>050-312100-
/O.CON.KBMX.FF.A.0004.000000T0000Z-160402T0600Z/
/00000.0.ER.000000T0000Z.000000T0000Z.000000T0000Z.OO/
MARION-LAMAR-FAYETTE-WINSTON-WALKER-BLOUNT-ETOWAH-CALHOUN-
CHEROKEE-CLEBURNE-PICKENS-TUSCALOOSA-JEFFERSON-SHELBY-ST. CLAIR-
TALLADEGA-CLAY-RANDOLPH-SUMTER-GREENE-HALE-PERRY-BIBB-CHILTON-
COOSA-TALLAPOOSA-CHAMBERS-MARENGO-DALLAS-AUTAUGA-LOWNDES-ELMORE-
MONTGOMERY-MACON-BULLOCK-LEE-RUSSELL-PIKE-BARBOUR-
INCLUDING THE CITIES OF...HAMILTON...SULLIGENT...VERNON...
FAYETTE...DOUBLE SPRINGS...JASPER...ONEONTA...GADSDEN...
ANNISTON...CENTRE...HEFLIN...CARROLLTON...TUSCALOOSA...
BIRMINGHAM...HOOVER...COLUMBIANA...PELHAM...ALABASTER...
PELL CITY...MOODY...TALLADEGA...SYLACAUGA...ASHLAND...ROANOKE...
LIVINGSTON...EUTAW...GREENSBORO...MOUNDVILLE...MARION...
CENTREVILLE...CLANTON...ROCKFORD...ALEXANDER CITY...DADEVILLE...
VALLEY...LANETT...LAFAYETTE...DEMOPOLIS...LINDEN...SELMA...
PRATTVILLE...FORT DEPOSIT...HAYNEVILLE...WETUMPKA...TALLASSEE...
MONTGOMERY...TUSKEGEE...UNION SPRINGS...AUBURN...OPELIKA...
PHENIX CITY...TROY...EUFAULA
447 AM CDT THU MAR 31 2016

...FLASH FLOOD WATCH REMAINS IN EFFECT THROUGH LATE FRIDAY
NIGHT...

THE FLASH FLOOD WATCH CONTINUES FOR

* PORTIONS OF CENTRAL ALABAMA...EAST CENTRAL ALABAMA...NORTHEAST 
  ALABAMA...NORTHWEST ALABAMA...SOUTHEAST ALABAMA AND WEST 
  CENTRAL ALABAMA...INCLUDING THE FOLLOWING AREAS...IN CENTRAL 
  ALABAMA...AUTAUGA...BIBB...BLOUNT...CHILTON...COOSA...DALLAS...
   ELMORE...JEFFERSON...LOWNDES...MONTGOMERY...PERRY...SHELBY... 
  ST. CLAIR...TALLADEGA AND WALKER. IN EAST CENTRAL ALABAMA... 
  CALHOUN...CHAMBERS...CLAY...CLEBURNE...LEE...MACON... 
  RANDOLPH...RUSSELL AND TALLAPOOSA. IN NORTHEAST ALABAMA... 
  CHEROKEE AND ETOWAH. IN NORTHWEST ALABAMA...MARION AND 
  WINSTON. IN SOUTHEAST ALABAMA...BARBOUR...BULLOCK AND PIKE. IN 
  WEST CENTRAL ALABAMA...FAYETTE...GREENE...HALE...LAMAR... 
  MARENGO...PICKENS...SUMTER AND TUSCALOOSA. 

* THROUGH LATE FRIDAY NIGHT

* 2 TO 4 INCHES OF RAINFALL ON AVERAGE WITH LOCALIZED HIGHER 
  AMOUNTS ARE EXPECTED DUE TO MULTIPLE ROUNDS OF SHOWERS AND 
  THUNDERSTORMS. 

* LOCATIONS THAT WILL HAVE THE BEST CHANCE OF FLASH FLOODING WILL
  BE WHERE MULTIPLE ROUNDS OF THUNDERSTORMS MOVE ACROSS THE SAME
  AREAS. MINOR RIVER FLOODING IS ALSO POSSIBLE DUE TO HEAVY
  RAINFALL...ESPECIALLY FOR WESTERN ALABAMA RIVER AND STREAM
  BASINS.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

A FLASH FLOOD WATCH MEANS THAT CONDITIONS MAY DEVELOP THAT LEAD
TO FLASH FLOODING. FLASH FLOODING IS A VERY DANGEROUS SITUATION.

YOU SHOULD MONITOR LATER FORECASTS AND BE PREPARED TO TAKE ACTION
SHOULD FLASH FLOOD WARNINGS BE ISSUED.

&&

$$
522 
WGUS64 KBMX 311849
FFABMX

FLOOD WATCH
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BIRMINGHAM AL
149 PM CDT THU MAR 31 2016

...FLASH FLOODING POSSIBLE ACROSS ALL OF CENTRAL ALABAMA THROUGH
LATE FRIDAY NIGHT...

.MULTIPLE ROUNDS OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS ARE EXPECTED ACROSS
CENTRAL ALABAMA THROUGH FRIDAY NIGHT. THE BEST CHANCE OF FLASH
FLOODING WILL EXIST GENERALLY ALONG AND NORTH OF THE INTERSTATE 59
CORRIDOR TONIGHT. THE FLASH FLOOD THREAT WILL THEN PUSH TO THE
SOUTH AND EAST FRIDAY MORNING ACROSS THE REMAINING COUNTIES IN
CENTRAL ALABAMA AND LAST THROUGH MIDNIGHT FRIDAY NIGHT.
THUNDERSTORMS WILL LIKELY MOVE ACROSS THE SAME AREAS MULTIPLE
TIMES...AND THE GREATEST FLASH FLOOD THREAT WILL EXIST WHERE THAT
OCCURS. UNCERTAINTIES REMAIN IN WHERE THE GREATEST RAINFALL
AMOUNTS WILL OCCUR...BUT THE POTENTIAL EXISTS FOR FLASH FLOODING
ACROSS ALL OF CENTRAL ALABAMA.

ALZ011>015-017>050-010500-
/O.CON.KBMX.FF.A.0004.000000T0000Z-160402T0600Z/
/00000.0.ER.000000T0000Z.000000T0000Z.000000T0000Z.OO/
MARION-LAMAR-FAYETTE-WINSTON-WALKER-BLOUNT-ETOWAH-CALHOUN-
CHEROKEE-CLEBURNE-PICKENS-TUSCALOOSA-JEFFERSON-SHELBY-ST. CLAIR-
TALLADEGA-CLAY-RANDOLPH-SUMTER-GREENE-HALE-PERRY-BIBB-CHILTON-
COOSA-TALLAPOOSA-CHAMBERS-MARENGO-DALLAS-AUTAUGA-LOWNDES-ELMORE-
MONTGOMERY-MACON-BULLOCK-LEE-RUSSELL-PIKE-BARBOUR-
INCLUDING THE CITIES OF...HAMILTON...SULLIGENT...VERNON...
FAYETTE...DOUBLE SPRINGS...JASPER...ONEONTA...GADSDEN...
ANNISTON...CENTRE...HEFLIN...CARROLLTON...TUSCALOOSA...
BIRMINGHAM...HOOVER...COLUMBIANA...PELHAM...ALABASTER...
PELL CITY...MOODY...TALLADEGA...SYLACAUGA...ASHLAND...ROANOKE...
LIVINGSTON...EUTAW...GREENSBORO...MOUNDVILLE...MARION...
CENTREVILLE...CLANTON...ROCKFORD...ALEXANDER CITY...DADEVILLE...
VALLEY...LANETT...LAFAYETTE...DEMOPOLIS...LINDEN...SELMA...
PRATTVILLE...FORT DEPOSIT...HAYNEVILLE...WETUMPKA...TALLASSEE...
MONTGOMERY...TUSKEGEE...UNION SPRINGS...AUBURN...OPELIKA...
PHENIX CITY...TROY...EUFAULA
149 PM CDT THU MAR 31 2016

...FLASH FLOOD WATCH REMAINS IN EFFECT THROUGH LATE FRIDAY
NIGHT...

THE FLASH FLOOD WATCH CONTINUES FOR

* PORTIONS OF CENTRAL ALABAMA...EAST CENTRAL ALABAMA...NORTHEAST 
  ALABAMA...NORTHWEST ALABAMA...SOUTHEAST ALABAMA AND WEST 
  CENTRAL ALABAMA...INCLUDING THE FOLLOWING AREAS...IN CENTRAL 
  ALABAMA...AUTAUGA...BIBB...BLOUNT...CHILTON...COOSA...DALLAS...
   ELMORE...JEFFERSON...LOWNDES...MONTGOMERY...PERRY...SHELBY... 
  ST. CLAIR...TALLADEGA AND WALKER. IN EAST CENTRAL ALABAMA... 
  CALHOUN...CHAMBERS...CLAY...CLEBURNE...LEE...MACON... 
  RANDOLPH...RUSSELL AND TALLAPOOSA. IN NORTHEAST ALABAMA... 
  CHEROKEE AND ETOWAH. IN NORTHWEST ALABAMA...MARION AND 
  WINSTON. IN SOUTHEAST ALABAMA...BARBOUR...BULLOCK AND PIKE. IN 
  WEST CENTRAL ALABAMA...FAYETTE...GREENE...HALE...LAMAR... 
  MARENGO...PICKENS...SUMTER AND TUSCALOOSA. 

* THROUGH LATE FRIDAY NIGHT

* STORM TOTAL RAINFALL OF 2 TO 4 INCHES WITH LOCALIZED HIGHER
  AMOUNTS ARE EXPECTED DUE TO MULTIPLE ROUNDS OF SHOWERS AND
  THUNDERSTORMS.

* LOCATIONS THAT WILL HAVE THE BEST CHANCE OF FLASH FLOODING 
  WILL BE WHERE MULTIPLE ROUNDS OF THUNDERSTORMS MOVE ACROSS THE 
  SAME AREAS. MINOR RIVER FLOODING IS ALSO POSSIBLE DUE TO HEAVY 
  RAINFALL...ESPECIALLY FOR WESTERN ALABAMA RIVER AND STREAM 
  BASINS. 

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

A FLASH FLOOD WATCH MEANS THAT CONDITIONS MAY DEVELOP THAT LEAD
TO FLASH FLOODING. FLASH FLOODING IS A VERY DANGEROUS SITUATION.

YOU SHOULD MONITOR LATER FORECASTS AND BE PREPARED TO TAKE ACTION
SHOULD FLASH FLOOD WARNINGS BE ISSUED.

&&

$$
452 
WGUS64 KBMX 010553
FFABMX

FLOOD WATCH
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BIRMINGHAM AL
1253 AM CDT FRI APR 1 2016

...FLASH FLOODING POSSIBLE ACROSS ALL OF CENTRAL ALABAMA THROUGH
LATE FRIDAY NIGHT...

.MULTIPLE ROUNDS OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS ARE EXPECTED ACROSS
CENTRAL ALABAMA THROUGH TONIGHT. THE HEAVIER RAIN WILL SHIFT
SOUTHWARD DURING THE DAY FRIDAY WITH THE THREAT OF FLASH FLOODING
DIMINISHING ENDING FOR AREAS NORTH OF I-20 BY LATE FRIDAY
MORNING.


ALZ011>015-017>050-011400-
/O.CON.KBMX.FF.A.0004.000000T0000Z-160402T0600Z/
/00000.0.ER.000000T0000Z.000000T0000Z.000000T0000Z.OO/
MARION-LAMAR-FAYETTE-WINSTON-WALKER-BLOUNT-ETOWAH-CALHOUN-
CHEROKEE-CLEBURNE-PICKENS-TUSCALOOSA-JEFFERSON-SHELBY-ST. CLAIR-
TALLADEGA-CLAY-RANDOLPH-SUMTER-GREENE-HALE-PERRY-BIBB-CHILTON-
COOSA-TALLAPOOSA-CHAMBERS-MARENGO-DALLAS-AUTAUGA-LOWNDES-ELMORE-
MONTGOMERY-MACON-BULLOCK-LEE-RUSSELL-PIKE-BARBOUR-
INCLUDING THE CITIES OF...HAMILTON...SULLIGENT...VERNON...
FAYETTE...DOUBLE SPRINGS...JASPER...ONEONTA...GADSDEN...
ANNISTON...CENTRE...HEFLIN...CARROLLTON...TUSCALOOSA...
BIRMINGHAM...HOOVER...COLUMBIANA...PELHAM...ALABASTER...
PELL CITY...MOODY...TALLADEGA...SYLACAUGA...ASHLAND...ROANOKE...
LIVINGSTON...EUTAW...GREENSBORO...MOUNDVILLE...MARION...
CENTREVILLE...CLANTON...ROCKFORD...ALEXANDER CITY...DADEVILLE...
VALLEY...LANETT...LAFAYETTE...DEMOPOLIS...LINDEN...SELMA...
PRATTVILLE...FORT DEPOSIT...HAYNEVILLE...WETUMPKA...TALLASSEE...
MONTGOMERY...TUSKEGEE...UNION SPRINGS...AUBURN...OPELIKA...
PHENIX CITY...TROY...EUFAULA
1253 AM CDT FRI APR 1 2016

...FLASH FLOOD WATCH REMAINS IN EFFECT THROUGH LATE TONIGHT...

THE FLASH FLOOD WATCH CONTINUES FOR

* PORTIONS OF CENTRAL ALABAMA...EAST CENTRAL ALABAMA...NORTHEAST 
  ALABAMA...NORTHWEST ALABAMA...SOUTHEAST ALABAMA AND WEST 
  CENTRAL ALABAMA...INCLUDING THE FOLLOWING AREAS...IN CENTRAL 
  ALABAMA...AUTAUGA...BIBB...BLOUNT...CHILTON...COOSA...DALLAS...
   ELMORE...JEFFERSON...LOWNDES...MONTGOMERY...PERRY...SHELBY... 
  ST. CLAIR...TALLADEGA AND WALKER. IN EAST CENTRAL ALABAMA... 
  CALHOUN...CHAMBERS...CLAY...CLEBURNE...LEE...MACON... 
  RANDOLPH...RUSSELL AND TALLAPOOSA. IN NORTHEAST ALABAMA... 
  CHEROKEE AND ETOWAH. IN NORTHWEST ALABAMA...MARION AND 
  WINSTON. IN SOUTHEAST ALABAMA...BARBOUR...BULLOCK AND PIKE. IN 
  WEST CENTRAL ALABAMA...FAYETTE...GREENE...HALE...LAMAR... 
  MARENGO...PICKENS...SUMTER AND TUSCALOOSA. 

* THROUGH LATE FRIDAY NIGHT.

* STORM TOTAL RAINFALL OF 2 TO 4 INCHES WITH LOCALIZED HIGHER 
  AMOUNTS ARE EXPECTED DUE TO MULTIPLE ROUNDS OF SHOWERS AND 
  THUNDERSTORMS. 

* LOCATIONS THAT WILL HAVE THE BEST CHANCE OF FLASH FLOODING 
  WILL BE WHERE MULTIPLE ROUNDS OF THUNDERSTORMS MOVE ACROSS THE 
  SAME AREAS. MINOR RIVER FLOODING IS ALSO POSSIBLE DUE TO HEAVY 
  RAINFALL...ESPECIALLY FOR WESTERN ALABAMA RIVER AND STREAM 
  BASINS. 

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

A FLASH FLOOD WATCH MEANS THAT CONDITIONS MAY DEVELOP THAT LEAD
TO FLASH FLOODING. FLASH FLOODING IS A VERY DANGEROUS SITUATION.

YOU SHOULD MONITOR LATER FORECASTS AND BE PREPARED TO TAKE ACTION
SHOULD FLASH FLOOD WARNINGS BE ISSUED.

&&

$$
989 
WGUS64 KBMX 011308
FFABMX

FLOOD WATCH
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BIRMINGHAM AL
808 AM CDT FRI APR 1 2016

...FLASH FLOODING POSSIBLE ACROSS THE SOUTHERN HALF OF CENTRAL
ALABAMA THROUGH TONIGHT...

.MULTIPLE ROUNDS OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS HAVE ALREADY
OCCURRED AND ANOTHER ROUND OR TWO WILL OCCUR TODAY AND TONIGHT. 

ALZ011>015-017>024-026-011415-
/O.CAN.KBMX.FF.A.0004.000000T0000Z-160402T0600Z/
/00000.0.ER.000000T0000Z.000000T0000Z.000000T0000Z.OO/
MARION-LAMAR-FAYETTE-WINSTON-WALKER-BLOUNT-ETOWAH-CALHOUN-
CHEROKEE-CLEBURNE-PICKENS-TUSCALOOSA-JEFFERSON-ST. CLAIR-
INCLUDING THE CITIES OF...HAMILTON...SULLIGENT...VERNON...
FAYETTE...DOUBLE SPRINGS...JASPER...ONEONTA...GADSDEN...
ANNISTON...CENTRE...HEFLIN...CARROLLTON...TUSCALOOSA...
BIRMINGHAM...HOOVER...PELL CITY...MOODY
808 AM CDT FRI APR 1 2016

...FLASH FLOOD WATCH IS CANCELLED...

THE FLASH FLOOD WATCH FOR PORTIONS OF CENTRAL ALABAMA...EAST
CENTRAL ALABAMA...NORTHEAST ALABAMA...NORTHWEST ALABAMA AND WEST
CENTRAL ALABAMA HAS BEEN CANCELLED. 1.50 TO 5 INCHES OF RAIN HAS
ALREADY OCCURRED WITH SOME FLOODING ALREADY REPORTED.

$$

ALZ025-027>050-012315-
/O.CON.KBMX.FF.A.0004.000000T0000Z-160402T0600Z/
/00000.0.ER.000000T0000Z.000000T0000Z.000000T0000Z.OO/
SHELBY-TALLADEGA-CLAY-RANDOLPH-SUMTER-GREENE-HALE-PERRY-BIBB-
CHILTON-COOSA-TALLAPOOSA-CHAMBERS-MARENGO-DALLAS-AUTAUGA-LOWNDES-
ELMORE-MONTGOMERY-MACON-BULLOCK-LEE-RUSSELL-PIKE-BARBOUR-
INCLUDING THE CITIES OF...COLUMBIANA...PELHAM...ALABASTER...
TALLADEGA...SYLACAUGA...ASHLAND...ROANOKE...LIVINGSTON...EUTAW...
GREENSBORO...MOUNDVILLE...MARION...CENTREVILLE...CLANTON...
ROCKFORD...ALEXANDER CITY...DADEVILLE...VALLEY...LANETT...
LAFAYETTE...DEMOPOLIS...LINDEN...SELMA...PRATTVILLE...
FORT DEPOSIT...HAYNEVILLE...WETUMPKA...TALLASSEE...MONTGOMERY...
TUSKEGEE...UNION SPRINGS...AUBURN...OPELIKA...PHENIX CITY...
TROY...EUFAULA
808 AM CDT FRI APR 1 2016

...FLASH FLOOD WATCH REMAINS IN EFFECT THROUGH LATE TONIGHT...

THE FLASH FLOOD WATCH CONTINUES FOR

* PORTIONS OF CENTRAL ALABAMA...EAST CENTRAL ALABAMA...SOUTHEAST 
  ALABAMA AND WEST CENTRAL ALABAMA...INCLUDING THE FOLLOWING 
  AREAS...IN CENTRAL ALABAMA...AUTAUGA...BIBB...CHILTON... 
  COOSA...DALLAS...ELMORE...LOWNDES...MONTGOMERY...PERRY... 
  SHELBY AND TALLADEGA. IN EAST CENTRAL ALABAMA...CHAMBERS... 
  CLAY...LEE...MACON...RANDOLPH...RUSSELL AND TALLAPOOSA. IN 
  SOUTHEAST ALABAMA...BARBOUR...BULLOCK AND PIKE. IN WEST 
  CENTRAL ALABAMA...GREENE...HALE...MARENGO AND SUMTER. 

* THROUGH LATE TONIGHT

* RAINFALL OF 1.5 TO 5 INCHES HAS ALREADY OCCURRED. ANOTHER 1 TO 2
  INCHES OF RAIN ARE POSSIBLE SOUTH TODAY AND TONIGHT.

* LOCATIONS THAT WILL HAVE THE BEST CHANCE OF FLASH FLOODING 
  WILL BE WHERE MULTIPLE ROUNDS OF THUNDERSTORMS MOVE ACROSS THE 
  SAME AREAS. MINOR RIVER FLOODING IS ALSO POSSIBLE DUE TO HEAVY 
  RAINFALL...ESPECIALLY FOR WESTERN ALABAMA RIVER AND STREAM 
  BASINS. 

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

A FLASH FLOOD WATCH MEANS THAT CONDITIONS MAY DEVELOP THAT LEAD
TO FLASH FLOODING. FLASH FLOODING IS A VERY DANGEROUS SITUATION.

YOU SHOULD MONITOR LATER FORECASTS AND BE PREPARED TO TAKE ACTION
SHOULD FLASH FLOOD WARNINGS BE ISSUED.

&&

$$
597 
WGUS64 KBMX 012033
FFABMX

FLOOD WATCH
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BIRMINGHAM AL
333 PM CDT FRI APR 1 2016

...FLASH FLOODING POSSIBLE ACROSS THE SOUTH CENTRAL ALABAMA
THROUGH TONIGHT...

.MULTIPLE ROUNDS OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS HAVE ALREADY
OCCURRED AND ANOTHER ROUND OR TWO WILL OCCUR TONIGHT.

ALZ025-027>040-012145-
/O.CAN.KBMX.FF.A.0004.000000T0000Z-160402T0600Z/
/00000.0.ER.000000T0000Z.000000T0000Z.000000T0000Z.OO/
SHELBY-TALLADEGA-CLAY-RANDOLPH-SUMTER-GREENE-HALE-PERRY-BIBB-
CHILTON-COOSA-TALLAPOOSA-CHAMBERS-MARENGO-DALLAS-
INCLUDING THE CITIES OF...COLUMBIANA...PELHAM...ALABASTER...
TALLADEGA...SYLACAUGA...ASHLAND...ROANOKE...LIVINGSTON...EUTAW...
GREENSBORO...MOUNDVILLE...MARION...CENTREVILLE...CLANTON...
ROCKFORD...ALEXANDER CITY...DADEVILLE...VALLEY...LANETT...
LAFAYETTE...DEMOPOLIS...LINDEN...SELMA
333 PM CDT FRI APR 1 2016

...FLASH FLOOD WATCH IS CANCELLED...

THE FLASH FLOOD WATCH FOR PORTIONS OF CENTRAL ALABAMA...EAST
CENTRAL ALABAMA AND WEST CENTRAL ALABAMA HAS BEEN CANCELLED. RAIN
AMOUNTS OVERNIGHT SHOULD NOT CAUSE ANY ADDITIONAL FLOODING.

$$

ALZ041>050-020600-
/O.CON.KBMX.FF.A.0004.000000T0000Z-160402T0600Z/
/00000.0.ER.000000T0000Z.000000T0000Z.000000T0000Z.OO/
AUTAUGA-LOWNDES-ELMORE-MONTGOMERY-MACON-BULLOCK-LEE-RUSSELL-PIKE-
BARBOUR-
INCLUDING THE CITIES OF...PRATTVILLE...FORT DEPOSIT...
HAYNEVILLE...WETUMPKA...TALLASSEE...MONTGOMERY...TUSKEGEE...
UNION SPRINGS...AUBURN...OPELIKA...PHENIX CITY...TROY...EUFAULA
333 PM CDT FRI APR 1 2016

...FLASH FLOOD WATCH REMAINS IN EFFECT UNTIL 1 AM CDT SATURDAY...

THE FLASH FLOOD WATCH CONTINUES FOR

* PORTIONS OF CENTRAL ALABAMA...EAST CENTRAL ALABAMA AND 
  SOUTHEAST ALABAMA...INCLUDING THE FOLLOWING AREAS...IN CENTRAL 
  ALABAMA...AUTAUGA...ELMORE...LOWNDES AND MONTGOMERY. IN EAST 
  CENTRAL ALABAMA...LEE...MACON AND RUSSELL. IN SOUTHEAST 
  ALABAMA...BARBOUR...BULLOCK AND PIKE. 

* UNTIL 1 AM CDT SATURDAY

* RAINFALL OF 1.5 TO 5 INCHES HAS ALREADY OCCURRED. ANOTHER 1 TO 2
  INCHES OF RAIN ARE POSSIBLE SOUTH THROUGH TONIGHT.

* LOCATIONS THAT WILL HAVE THE BEST CHANCE OF FLASH FLOODING 
  WILL BE WHERE MULTIPLE ROUNDS OF THUNDERSTORMS MOVE ACROSS THE 
  SAME AREAS. MINOR RIVER FLOODING IS ALSO POSSIBLE DUE TO HEAVY 
  RAINFALL...ESPECIALLY FOR WESTERN ALABAMA RIVER AND STREAM 
  BASINS. 

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

A FLASH FLOOD WATCH MEANS THAT CONDITIONS MAY DEVELOP THAT LEAD
TO FLASH FLOODING. FLASH FLOODING IS A VERY DANGEROUS SITUATION.

YOU SHOULD MONITOR LATER FORECASTS AND BE PREPARED TO TAKE ACTION
SHOULD FLASH FLOOD WARNINGS BE ISSUED.

&&

$$
131 
WGUS64 KBMX 020318
FFABMX

FLOOD WATCH
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BIRMINGHAM AL
1018 PM CDT FRI APR 1 2016

ALZ041>050-020430-
/O.CAN.KBMX.FF.A.0004.000000T0000Z-160402T0600Z/
/00000.0.ER.000000T0000Z.000000T0000Z.000000T0000Z.OO/
AUTAUGA-LOWNDES-ELMORE-MONTGOMERY-MACON-BULLOCK-LEE-RUSSELL-PIKE-
BARBOUR-
INCLUDING THE CITIES OF...PRATTVILLE...FORT DEPOSIT...
HAYNEVILLE...WETUMPKA...TALLASSEE...MONTGOMERY...TUSKEGEE...
UNION SPRINGS...AUBURN...OPELIKA...PHENIX CITY...TROY...EUFAULA
1018 PM CDT FRI APR 1 2016

...FLASH FLOOD WATCH IS CANCELLED...

THE FLASH FLOOD WATCH FOR PORTIONS OF CENTRAL ALABAMA...EAST
CENTRAL ALABAMA AND SOUTHEAST ALABAMA HAS BEEN CANCELLED.

$$

What forecasters said that day

The local office's own words before this flash flood watch went out, as it sent them, from the Iowa Environmental Mesonet's archive of National Weather Service text.

NWS Birmingham, AL wrote its last area forecast discussion before this flash flood watch went out at Mar 30, 1:13 PM CDT, 1 hour 42 minutes earlier.

Area forecast discussion, Mar 30, 1:13 PM CDT, 1 hour 42 minutes before
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BIRMINGHAM AL
113 PM CDT WED MAR 30 2016

.UPDATE...
FOR 18Z AVIATION.

&&

.DISCUSSION...

STILL DRY ACROSS ALL OF CENTRAL ALABAMA WITH NO RAIN SHOWING UP
ON SURROUNDING AREA RADARS AT THE MOMENT. SEVERAL HIRES MODELS
INDICATE THAT THE DRY CONDITIONS WILL PERSIST ACROSS CENTRAL
ALABAMA THRU THE AFTERNOON...BUT MANY OTHER MODELS STILL SHOW
SOME LIGHT QPF ENTERING OUR W/NW COUNTIES AFTER ROUGHLY 21Z. WILL
CONTINUE TO MENTION 20-30 POPS IN THIS AREA LATE THIS AFTERNOON.
OTHERWISE...CLOUD COVER WILL CONTINUE TO INCREASE WITH TEMPS
TOPPING OUT IN THE MID/UPPER 70S IN MOST LOCATIONS.

19

&&

.AVIATION...
18Z TAF DISCUSSION.

VFR CONDITIONS SHOULD CONTINUE UNTIL TONIGHT/THURSDAY MORNING.
CIGS WILL GRADUALLY LOWER THIS EVENING AND TONIGHT...EVENTUALLY
BECOMING MVFR FROM W/NW TO E/SE EARLY THURSDAY MORNING AS RAIN AND
ISENTROPIC LIFT SHIFTS EASTWARD INTO THE AREA. WINDS WILL
GRADUALLY SHIFT FROM SE TO S BY THURSDAY MORNING..AND THEY WILL
REMAIN GUSTY THRU THE PERIOD AS THE PRESSURE GRADIENT TIGHTENS
AHEAD OF THE APPROACHING SYSTEM. THE EXACT EVOLUTION
OF THE OVERALL SYSTEM ON THURSDAY IS UNCERTAIN AS WE COULD
POTENTIALLY BE IMPACTED BY MULTIPLE ROUNDS OF SHOWERS/STORMS. SO
BE PREPARED FOR AMENDMENTS TO THE FORECAST AS THE SYSTEM UNFOLDS.

19

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...

SHOWERS AND STORMS WILL MOVE IN FROM THE WEST LATE THIS AFTERNOON
INTO TONIGHT AND THEN OVERSPREAD THE AREA ON THURSDAY AS A FRONT
SLOWLY MOVES SOUTHEASTWARD TOWARD CENTRAL ALABAMA. ANOTHER WAVE OF
RAIN AND STORMS WILL BE POSSIBLE FRIDAY.  DRY CONDITIONS RETURNING
THRU THE WEEKEND. NO CRITICAL FIRE WEATHER CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED
THROUGH THE FORECAST PERIOD.

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION...
/ISSUED 625 AM CDT WED MAR 30 2016/
SHORT TERM...
TODAY AND TONIGHT.

MODELS CONTINUE TO SLOW DOWN FOR THE ONSET OF THE SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS WITH EACH RUN. SO WE HAVE ADJUSTED THE FORECAST TO
MORE OF AN AFTER SUNSET TIMEFRAME IN THE WEST TO CLOSE TO SUNRISE
IN THE EAST FOR ISOLATED TO SCATTERED ACTIVITY. BETTER CHANCES COME
THURSDAY. DUE TO THE SLOWER TIMING ALSO WARMED UP TEMPERATURES IN
THE SOUTHEAST INTO THE UPPER 70S FOR WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON. ANY SEVERE
WEATHER WILL HOLD OFF UNTIL THURSDAY MORNING AND WILL BE DISCUSSED
BELOW.

16

LONG TERM...
THURSDAY THROUGH TUESDAY

THE EVOLUTION OF THE CONVECTION THAT DEVELOPS OVER THE SOUTHERN
PLAINS THIS AFTERNOON AND MOVES EASTWARD THROUGH THE LOWER
MISSISSIPPI VALLEY AND TOWARDS OUR WESTERN COUNTIES LATE TONIGHT
WILL BE A KEY FACTOR IN THE SEVERE WEATHER FORECAST FOR THURSDAY.
MOST OF THE AVAILABLE HIGH-RES GUIDANCE...INCLUDING THE WRF-
ARW...WRF- NMM AND NSSL WRF...INDICATES SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS
BEING ONGOING EARLY THURSDAY MORNING ACROSS THE WEST AND MOVING
EASTWARD ACROSS THE STATE THROUGH THE MORNING. THE 4 KM NAM IS AN
OUTLIER AT THIS TIME WITH MUCH LESS CONVECTION TONIGHT INTO
TOMORROW MORNING. A CONDITIONAL SEVERE THREAT COULD EXIST AS EARLY
AS TOMORROW MORNING AS INSTABILITY BEGINS TO MOVE IN ALONG THE
SOUTHERN FRINGES OF THIS ACTIVITY...BUT THE MAIN SEVERE THREAT IS
EXPECTED TO BE DURING THE AFTERNOON...PERHAPS NOT UNTIL LATE
AFTERNOON...AND THROUGH THE EVENING IN THE WAKE OF THIS
CONVECTION. THE HIRES WRF MODELS AND NAM INDICATE A RELATIVE LULL
BEHIND THIS CONVECTION...ALLOWING THE AIRMASS TO RECOVER ACROSS
WEST ALABAMA AND MISSISSIPPI. ASSUMING THE AIR MASS IS ABLE TO
RECOVER...THEN CAPE VALUES OF 1000-2000 J/KG WILL DEVELOP ACROSS
THE WESTERN PART OF THE STATE. BUT OF COURSE IF CONVECTION HANGS
AROUND LONGER THEN THIS INSTABILITY WOULD NOT DEVELOP.

FORCING FOR CONVECTION IN THE AFTERNOON REMAINS SOMEWHAT UNCLEAR
WITH THE COLD FRONT REMAINING WEST OF THE MISSISSIPPI RIVER AND
THE POSITIVELY TILTED UPPER-LEVEL TROUGH REMAINING WELL TO OUR
NORTHWEST. HOWEVER THERE WILL BE PLENTY OF UPPER-LEVEL DIVERGENCE
AHEAD OF AN APPROACHING SUBTROPICAL JET STREAK AND THE WARM SECTOR
AIR MASS WILL BE UNCAPPED WITH DEWPOINTS APPROACHING 70 DEGREES.
WE WILL ALSO HAVE TO WATCH FOR OUTFLOW BOUNDARIES ASSOCIATED WITH
THE EARLY CONVECTION WHICH WOULD ALSO AID STORM INITIATION.
STORMS DEVELOPING ALONG THE FRONT WILL ALSO MOVE QUICKLY WESTWARD
IN THE FAST SW FLOW. STORMS MAY BE SOMEWHAT ISOLATED WHICH WOULD
ONLY ENHANCE THE SEVERE THREAT. 0-6 KM BULK SHEAR OF 55-60 KTS
WILL BE VERY SUPPORTIVE OF SUPERCELLS WITH ALL MODES OF SEVERE
WEATHER POSSIBLE INCLUDING TORNADOES...DAMAGING WINDS...AND LARGE
HAIL GIVEN THE FAT CAPE PROFILES. THE LOW-LEVEL JET WILL
TEMPORARILY WEAKEN BY EARLY AFTERNOON BUT IS FORECAST TO RE-
STRENGTHEN ESPECIALLY BY THURSDAY EVENING. THE SEVERE THREAT WILL
CONTINUE THROUGH MUCH OF THE NIGHT ESPECIALLY ACROSS THE SOUTHERN
HALF OF CENTRAL ALABAMA GIVEN THE INSTABILITY AND SHEAR PRESENT AS
THE FRONT MOVES VERY SLOWLY SOUTHEASTWARD. AN ELEVATED THREAT AREA
HAS BEEN ADDED TO WEST ALABAMA WHERE THE BEST CHANCE OF AIR MASS
RECOVERY AND HIGHEST INSTABILITY WILL BE...BUT THIS WILL LIKELY BE
ADJUSTED AS THE MESOSCALE DETAILS BECOME CLEARER SO MAKE SURE TO
CHECK THE LATEST FORECASTS. COULD CERTAINLY SEE IT BEING EXPANDED
EASTWARD...ESPECIALLY ACROSS THE SOUTHERN HALF OF CENTRAL ALABAMA
TO COVER THE EVENING AND OVERNIGHT THREAT.

MODELS ARE TRENDING SLOWER WITH THE PROGRESSION OF THE FRONT AS IT
WILL BE PARALLEL TO THE UPPER-LEVEL FLOW AND HAVE INCREASED RAIN
CHANCES ESPECIALLY ACROSS THE SOUTHEAST COUNTIES FRIDAY AND FRIDAY
NIGHT WITH MODELS TRENDING TOWARDS THE IDEA OF A SURFACE WAVE
DEVELOPING ALONG THE FRONT. IT IS POSSIBLE THAT A THREAT OF SEVERE
OR AT LEAST STRONG STORMS COULD PERSIST INTO FRIDAY AHEAD OF THE
FRONT WITH INSTABILITY CONTINUING TO BE PRESENT...THOUGH THE BEST
LOW-LEVEL JET WILL HAVE LEFT THE AREA BY THEN. HOWEVER...WITH
WIDESPREAD PRECIPITATION EXPECTED AT THIS POINT WILL LEAVE THIS
OUT OF THE HWO FOR NOW AND THINK THE MAIN THREAT WILL HAVE SHIFTED
TO FLOODING BY THAT POINT.

SPEAKING OF FLOODING...FORECAST RAINFALL AMOUNTS CONTINUE TO
INCREASE WITH THE SLOWER TIMING OF THE FRONTAL PASSAGE...WITH THE
POTENTIAL FOR FLOODING NOW CONTINUING INTO FRIDAY AND FRIDAY NIGHT
ESPECIALLY SOUTHEAST WHERE RAIN WILL BE FALLING ONTO SOILS WHICH
WILL BE SATURATED BY THEN. RAINFALL TOTALS OF 2-4 INCHES ARE
EXPECTED WITH LOCALLY HIGHER AMOUNTS FROM MULTIPLE ROUNDS OF
CONVECTION. PW VALUES WILL BE AROUND 1.5-1.7 INCHES WITH 850-300
MB FLOW BECOMING UNI-DIRECTIONAL. A FLASH FLOOD WATCH WILL
PROBABLY EVENTUALLY BE NEEDED. WINDS WILL ALSO BE GUSTY ON
THURSDAY.

DRY CONDITIONS FINALLY RETURN ON SATURDAY AS THE FRONT PUSHES
SOUTH OF THE AREA AND THE ELONGATED POSITIVELY TILTED TROUGH
SHEARS OUT. A FAST-MOVING CLIPPER SYSTEM WILL SEND A COLD FRONT
THROUGH THE AREA MONDAY NIGHT. MOISTURE WILL BE LIMITED AND HAVE
ONLY ADDED A SLIGHT CHANCE OF SHOWERS ACROSS THE FAR NORTH. BEHIND
THE CLIPPER A SHOT OF COOLER AIR WILL MOVE IN.

32/DAVIS

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
GADSDEN     63  74  60  71  47 /  50 100 100  20  10
ANNISTON    63  74  62  72  49 /  30 100 100  30  30
BIRMINGHAM  65  76  61  72  48 /  50 100 100  20  20
TUSCALOOSA  65  78  60  73  49 /  70 100 100  20  10
CALERA      65  76  62  72  50 /  50 100 100  30  20
AUBURN      64  75  64  73  52 /  20  90 100  80  50
MONTGOMERY  66  79  66  74  53 /  20  90  90  80  50
TROY        67  78  66  73  54 /  20  90  90  90  60

&&

.BMX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.

&&
Hazardous weather outlook, Mar 30, 4:43 AM CDT, 10 hours 12 minutes before
HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BIRMINGHAM AL
443 AM CDT WED MAR 30 2016

ALZ011>015-017>050-311245-
MARION-LAMAR-FAYETTE-WINSTON-WALKER-BLOUNT-ETOWAH-CALHOUN-CHEROKEE-
CLEBURNE-PICKENS-TUSCALOOSA-JEFFERSON-SHELBY-ST. CLAIR-TALLADEGA-
CLAY-RANDOLPH-SUMTER-GREENE-HALE-PERRY-BIBB-CHILTON-COOSA-TALLAPOOSA-
CHAMBERS-MARENGO-DALLAS-AUTAUGA-LOWNDES-ELMORE-MONTGOMERY-MACON-
BULLOCK-LEE-RUSSELL-PIKE-BARBOUR-
443 AM CDT WED MAR 30 2016

THIS HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK IS FOR THE COUNTIES SERVED BY THE
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE OFFICE IN BIRMINGHAM.

.DAY ONE...THROUGH TONIGHT.

NO HAZARDOUS WEATHER IS EXPECTED AT THIS TIME.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...THURSDAY THROUGH TUESDAY.

THERE IS A THREAT OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS...INCLUDING TORNADOES...LARGE
HAIL...AND DAMAGING WINDS...ACROSS ALL OF CENTRAL ALABAMA
THURSDAY AND THURSDAY NIGHT. THE THUNDERSTORMS MAY COME IN SEVERAL
WAVES...ALTHOUGH THE TIME FRAME WITH THE GREATEST THREAT IS
CURRENTLY THURSDAY AFTERNOON AND EVENING. CURRENTLY THE AREA WITH
THE HIGHEST THREAT IS ALONG AND WEST OF A LINE FROM DOUBLE
SPRINGS TO TUSCALOOSA TO MARION JUNCTION...BUT ADJUSTMENTS WILL
LIKELY BE NEEDED IN FUTURE UPDATES.

HEAVY RAINFALL OF 2 TO 4 INCHES WITH LOCALLY HIGHER AMOUNTS WEDNESDAY
NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY NIGHT WILL ALSO LEAD TO A RISK OF FLASH
FLOODING AND MINOR RIVER FLOODING.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

ACTIVATION OF STORM SPOTTERS AND EMERGENCY MANAGEMENT MAY BE
NEEDED THURSDAY AND FRIDAY.

The office that day

Everything else NWS Birmingham, AL issued on the same UTC day.

IssuedProductOfficeCountiesLasted
Mar 30, 9:43 AM CDTRiver Flood WarningBMXGreene, Hale, Marengo, Pickens, Sumter4 days

Nearby

Flash Flood Watches in Alabama, 2016Every flash flood watch in 2016

Sources

The product and its follow-ups from the Iowa Environmental Mesonet's archive of National Weather Service and Storm Prediction Center text; the sounding from the Mesonet's radiosonde archive; radar from the NEXRAD Level II archive.