Special Weather Statement, NWS Bismarck, ND

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Bismarck ND
253 PM CDT MON AUG 15 2016

.SHORT TERM...(This evening through Tuesday)
Issued at 252 PM CDT Mon Aug 15 2016

The threat for thunderstorms will highlight portions of the short
term period this afternoon and tonight.

BUFKIT soundings show sufficient cape but limited sheer for deep and
sustained convection this afternoon. A weak trough of low pressure
moving through northwest North Dakota is expected to be the focus
for thunderstorms...of which some will have some small hail and
gusty winds and one or two may grow to severe limits late this
afternoon and evening across central North Dakota.

Tonight the CAM (convective allowing) models such as teh HRRR track
this convection east as a line of storms into the james river
valley and diminishing them after midnight.

By Tuesday more stable air behind the trough as well as a building
short wave ridge aloft will suppress convection and bring mainly
sunny skies and warm temperatures into the 80s.

.LONG TERM...(Tuesday night through Monday)
Issued at 252 PM CDT Mon Aug 15 2016

A somewhat progressive h500 flow continues in the extended with
tuesday night and wednesday in weakly anticyclonic flow
aloft over the northern plains keeping the forecast dry but warm.

Thursday and Friday will be more active as an h500 low becomes
positioned from hudson Bay to Montana bringing shortwave energy
through the region. By then a surface cold front will become the
focus for thunderstorms as it moves from western into central North
Dakota by Thursday afternoon. By then BUFKIT NAM/GFS soundings show
sufficient cape and shear for strong and deep convection resulting
in possibly severe thunderstorms thursday afternoon and evening.

The cold front will then usher in much cooler and dryer air with
highs friday through sunday expected to be in the 60s north to the
70s south. The chance for precipitation will be low during this
period as well.

&&

.AVIATION...(For the 18Z TAFS through 18Z Tuesday afternoon)
Issued at 252 PM CDT Mon Aug 15 2016

A vcts has been carried at the KMOT/KDIK/KBIS/KJMS terminals this
afternoon into early tonight. However the vcts at KJMS is delayed
from until 03z through 08z Tuesday. Expect vfr cigs/vsbys this taf
period. Winds shifting to the northwest and under 10kt at all
terminals.

&&

.BIS Watches/Warnings/Advisories...
NONE.
&&

SHORT TERM...WAA
LONG TERM...WAA
AVIATION...KS

HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BISMARCK ND
301 PM CDT MON AUG 15 2016

NDZ002>005-010>013-019>023-025-034>037-042-045>048-050-051-162015-
BURKE-RENVILLE-BOTTINEAU-ROLETTE-MOUNTRAIL-WARD-MCHENRY-PIERCE-
MERCER-OLIVER-MCLEAN-SHERIDAN-WELLS-FOSTER-MORTON-BURLEIGH-KIDDER-
STUTSMAN-GRANT-SIOUX-EMMONS-LOGAN-LA MOURE-MCINTOSH-DICKEY-
301 PM CDT MON AUG 15 2016 /201 PM MDT MON AUG 15 2016/

THIS HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK IS FOR PORTIONS OF NORTH CENTRAL
NORTH DAKOTA...NORTHWEST NORTH DAKOTA...SOUTH CENTRAL NORTH
DAKOTA AND SOUTHEAST NORTH DAKOTA.

.DAY ONE...THIS AFTERNOON AND TONIGHT

THERE IS A CHANCE OF THUNDERSTORMS THIS AFTERNOON AND TONIGHT
WITH ISOLATED SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS POSSIBLE.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...TUESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY

MORE THUNDERSTORMS ARE FORECAST WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

SPOTTER ACTIVATION WILL NOT BE NEEDED.

NDZ001-009-017-018-031>033-040-041-043-044-162015-
DIVIDE-WILLIAMS-MCKENZIE-DUNN-GOLDEN VALLEY-BILLINGS-STARK-SLOPE-
HETTINGER-BOWMAN-ADAMS-
301 PM CDT MON AUG 15 2016 /201 PM MDT MON AUG 15 2016/

THIS HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK IS FOR PORTIONS OF NORTHWEST NORTH
DAKOTA AND SOUTHWEST NORTH DAKOTA.

.DAY ONE...THIS AFTERNOON AND TONIGHT

THERE IS A SLIGHT CHANCE OF THUNDERSTORMS THIS AFTERNOON INTO
TONIGHT. SEVERE WEATHER IS NOT EXPECTED.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...TUESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY

MORE THUNDERSTORMS ARE FORECAST WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

SPOTTER ACTIVATION WILL NOT BE NEEDED.

WAA

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BISMARCK ND
335 PM CDT MON AUG 15 2016

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

0329 PM     HAIL             BERTHOLD                48.31N 101.74W
08/15/2016  E0.75 INCH       WARD               ND   PUBLIC

            REPORT RELAYED BY MEDIA.

&&

AYD

SPECIAL WEATHER STATEMENT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BISMARCK ND
341 PM CDT MON AUG 15 2016

NDZ011-152115-
WARD-
341 PM CDT MON AUG 15 2016

...AN AREA OF STRONG THUNDERSTORMS WILL AFFECT CENTRAL WARD COUNTY
UNTIL 415 PM CDT...

AT 341 PM CDT...STRONG THUNDERSTORMS WERE CLUSTERED NEAR DES
LACS...OR 16 MILES WEST OF MINOT...MOVING EAST AT 30 MPH.

WIND GUSTS TO 50 MPH AND NICKEL SIZE HAIL ARE POSSIBLE WITH THESE
STORMS.

LOCATIONS IMPACTED INCLUDE...
BURLINGTON...BERTHOLD...DES LACS AND FOXHOLM.

LAT...LON 4824 10180 4839 10168 4836 10131 4813 10146
TIME...MOT...LOC 2041Z 283DEG 25KT 4830 10164

SIMOSKO

SPECIAL WEATHER STATEMENT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BISMARCK ND
356 PM CDT MON AUG 15 2016

NDZ018-019-152130-
MERCER ND-DUNN ND-
356 PM CDT MON AUG 15 2016

...A STRONG THUNDERSTORM WILL AFFECT SOUTHWESTERN MERCER AND
SOUTHEASTERN DUNN COUNTIES UNTIL 430 PM CDT/330 PM MDT/...

AT 355 PM CDT/255 PM MDT/...DOPPLER RADAR WAS TRACKING A STRONG
THUNDERSTORM 6 MILES EAST OF MARSHALL...OR 21 MILES SOUTHWEST OF
BEULAH...MOVING SOUTHEAST AT 25 MPH.

HALF INCH HAIL WILL BE POSSIBLE WITH THIS STORM.

THIS STORM WILL REMAIN OVER MAINLY RURAL AREAS OF SOUTHWESTERN MERCER
AND SOUTHEASTERN DUNN COUNTIES.

THIS STORM MAY INTENSIFY...SO BE CERTAIN TO MONITOR LOCAL RADIO
STATIONS AND AVAILABLE TELEVISION STATIONS FOR ADDITIONAL INFORMATION
AND POSSIBLE WARNINGS FROM THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE.

LAT...LON 4701 10215 4701 10224 4707 10235 4723 10224
      4715 10186 4698 10199 4698 10214
TIME...MOT...LOC 2055Z 295DEG 20KT 4712 10220

ABELING

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