Special Weather Statement, NWS Bismarck, ND

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Bismarck ND
1116 PM CDT WED AUG 3 2016

.UPDATE...
Issued at 1116 PM CDT Wed Aug 3 2016

Storm Prediction Center has allowed the tornado watch to expire.
However, it is being replaced in southeastern ND by a new severe
thunderstorm watch. This watch includes LaMoure and Dickey
counties, which is within the Bismarck NWS forecast area. The
severe storms are along the cold front, which is now in LaMoure
and Dickey counties...and extends northeastward to near Grand
Forks. We will likely be ending the new watch for those 2 counties
in an hour or two.

Otherwise, scattered thunderstorms had developed over central ND.
It appears they are developing along another leading edge of upper
level impulse energy emanating from the large upper level low,
which is in southeastern Saskatchewan. This convection is expected
to continue and move east across the area early Thursday morning,
but severe weather is not expected with these storms.

UPDATE Issued at 1001 PM CDT Wed Aug 3 2016

Quick update to increase thunderstorm chances from Foster/Stutsman
counties south and southwestward to Logan and McIntosh counties with
line of storms developing along the cold front. Other scattered, but
weaker, convection starting up in south central and southwestern
ND.

UPDATE Issued at 908 PM CDT Wed Aug 3 2016

Cold front continues to push east with convection sliding over the
northern James River Valley. Potential still exits for some severe
weather over the James River Valley region with the progressing
front and ample instability ahead of it, though coverage will be
lower. Therefore have pulled thunderstorm chances down a bit.
Updates have been sent.

UPDATE Issued at 603 PM CDT Wed Aug 3 2016

Strong convection has developed over north central North Dakota
where a large tornado developed earlier. Further south...cold
front continues to gradually work east approaching the Bismarck
area. Convection has been reluctant to develop so far. Short term
models are showing a few different solutions but try to develop
the convection in the next hour or two. Fly in the ointment might
be a cap developing that some models are trying to suggest, but
will have to look at the latest sounding going up in a bit to see
if it is legitimate. Therefore...will continue the severe threat.

&&

.SHORT TERM...(This evening through Thursday)
Issued at 244 PM CDT Wed Aug 3 2016

Current surface analysis places low near the intersection of the
North Dakota, Montana, and Saskatchewan borders. Cold front now
loops down over western North Dakota to the east of a Tioga to
Dickinson line while warm front lifts north into southern
Saskatchewan/Manitoba. Moisture continues to surge into the area
in the wake of the warm front, with a broad swath of 70 degree or
higher dewpoints over central and eastern North Dakota. Upper
level analysis places upper low sliding along the international
border, now located near the Alberta and Saskatchewan border.
Variety of waves continue to lift ahead of the low.

For late this afternoon into this evening...focal point for robust
convection to start will be along and ahead of the aforementioned
cold front. Latest high resolution models expect development to
start around the 22-23Z timeframe. As has been previously
advertised, ahead of the front in the area of high moisture a
broad area of unbridled cape values of 3500 j/kg or greater have
developed. Deep layer shear will also be on the increase with the
gradual advancement of upper low. A potpourri of severe weather
will be possible with the greatest threat being large hail given
the very strong instability. A tornado or two cannot be ruled
out...particularly early in the event when storms are expected to
be more isolated. As time goes on, upscale growth is expected as
the front pushes eastward forming a line and increasing the
damaging wind threat. Storms are expected to be east of the area
by late tonight.

On Thursday...Surface low pushes from southeastern Manitoba into
southern Ontario as cold front slides its way through the
midwest. Breezy conditions expected with tightening pressure
gradient in the wake of the low, along with cooler conditions. A
few showers possible over northern locations in cyclonic flow as
the upper low passes to the north and off to the northeast.

Quiet weather expected to end the week as weak upper level ridging
develops over the area. Temperatures will gradually warm towards
average.

.LONG TERM...(Sunday through Wednesday)
Issued at 244 PM CDT Wed Aug 3 2016

Concern for the long term period is a similar pattern setting up
Sunday through Tuesday, as what we are currently seeing in the short
term period. That is to say that another closed upper low drops into
the far Pacific northwest Sunday. This induces broad ridging into
the northern plains with southwest flow aloft once again developing.

A lead shortwave trough is expected to push through Sunday night
through Monday night producing a good chance for showers and
thunderstorms. The ECMWF shows the main upper low will follow, with
a path similar to todays short term upper low, which moves into
southeast Alberta by 06z Wednesday. Pattern recognition in this
scenario suggests we could be looking for another round of severe
weather Tuesday night through Wednesday of next week. The GFS is
similar to the ECMWF through Tuesday, but then stalls the upper low
Wednesday across north central Montana before dropping south into
southeast Idaho Thursday. Bottom line is an unsettled pattern with
chances for thunderstorms, possibly severe, Monday through
Wednesday. Highs will be in the 80s with lows in the 60s.

&&

.AVIATION...(For the 00Z TAFS through 00Z Thursday evening)
Issued at 603 PM CDT Wed Aug 3 2016

Thunderstorms are expected to develop early this evening along a
north to south orientated cold front passing through KBIS. Some
of these storms may become severe with large hail and damaging
wind gusts. The storms will progress east this evening and
increase in coverage...affecting the KJMS terminal. Storms should
push to the east of the area by late tonight. Localized MVFR cigs
will be possible on Thursday, though most areas will remain VFR.

&&

.BIS Watches/Warnings/Advisories...
NONE.
&&

UPDATE...JV
SHORT TERM...JJS
LONG TERM...KS
AVIATION...JJS

HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BISMARCK ND
733 PM CDT WED AUG 3 2016

NDZ023-025-035>037-045>048-050-051-050045-
WELLS-FOSTER-BURLEIGH-KIDDER-STUTSMAN-SIOUX-EMMONS-LOGAN-LA MOURE-
MCINTOSH-DICKEY-
733 PM CDT WED AUG 3 2016 /633 PM MDT WED AUG 3 2016/

THIS HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK IS FOR PORTIONS OF SOUTH CENTRAL
NORTH DAKOTA AND SOUTHEAST NORTH DAKOTA.

.DAY ONE...TONIGHT

THUNDERSTORMS WILL CONTINUE TO DEVELOP AND MOVE EAST THROUGH
PORTIONS OF SOUTH CENTRAL NORTH DAKOTA INTO THE JAMES RIVER VALLEY.
SOME THUNDERSTORMS ARE EXPECTED TO BECOME SEVERE. PRIMARY THREATS
INCLUDE VERY LARGE HAIL POSSIBLY IN EXCESS OF TWO INCHES IN
DIAMETER...DAMAGING WINDS...AND SOME TORNADOES. LOCALLY HEAVY
RAIN WILL ALSO BE POSSIBLE IN SLOWER MOVING STORMS.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...THURSDAY THROUGH TUESDAY

THERE IS A CHANCE OF THUNDERSTORMS SUNDAY THROUGH TUESDAY.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

SPOTTER ACTIVATION MAY BE NEEDED LATE THIS AFTERNOON AND TONIGHT
OVER CENTRAL NORTH DAKOTA INTO THE JAMES RIVER VALLEY.

NDZ001>005-009>013-017>022-031>034-040>044-050045-
DIVIDE-BURKE-RENVILLE-BOTTINEAU-ROLETTE-WILLIAMS-MOUNTRAIL-WARD-
MCHENRY-PIERCE-MCKENZIE-DUNN-MERCER-OLIVER-MCLEAN-SHERIDAN-
GOLDEN VALLEY-BILLINGS-STARK-MORTON-SLOPE-HETTINGER-GRANT-BOWMAN-
ADAMS-
733 PM CDT WED AUG 3 2016 /633 PM MDT WED AUG 3 2016/

THIS HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK IS FOR PORTIONS OF NORTH CENTRAL
NORTH DAKOTA...NORTHWEST NORTH DAKOTA...SOUTH CENTRAL NORTH
DAKOTA AND SOUTHWEST NORTH DAKOTA.

.DAY ONE...TONIGHT

ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS POSSIBLE OVER PARTS OF THE AREA TODAY.
SEVERE WEATHER IS NOT EXPECTED.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...THURSDAY THROUGH TUESDAY

THERE IS A CHANCE OF THUNDERSTORMS SUNDAY THROUGH TUESDAY.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

SPOTTER ACTIVATION WILL NOT BE NEEDED.

SPECIAL WEATHER STATEMENT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BISMARCK ND
801 PM CDT WED AUG 3 2016

NDZ023-040115-
WELLS ND-
801 PM CDT WED AUG 3 2016

...A STRONG THUNDERSTORM WILL AFFECT NORTHEASTERN WELLS COUNTY UNTIL
815 PM CDT...

AT 800 PM CDT...DOPPLER RADAR WAS TRACKING A STRONG THUNDERSTORM 10
MILES NORTH OF CATHAY...OR 21 MILES NORTHWEST OF CARRINGTON...MOVING
EAST AT 25 MPH.

NICKEL SIZE HAIL AND WIND GUSTS TO 50 MPH WILL BE POSSIBLE WITH THIS
STORM. ROTATION HAS ALSO BEEN REPORTED WITH THIS STORM.

LOCATIONS IMPACTED INCLUDE...
BREMEN.

THIS STORM MAY INTENSIFY...SO BE CERTAIN TO MONITOR LOCAL RADIO
STATIONS AND AVAILABLE TELEVISION STATIONS FOR ADDITIONAL INFORMATION
AND POSSIBLE WARNINGS FROM THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE.

A TORNADO WATCH REMAINS IN EFFECT UNTIL 1100 PM CDT FOR SOUTH CENTRAL
NORTH DAKOTA.

LAT...LON 4765 9948 4785 9950 4785 9930 4784 9929
      4767 9930 4767 9927 4765 9927
TIME...MOT...LOC 0100Z 260DEG 23KT 4770 9939

JONES

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BISMARCK ND
829 PM CDT WED AUG 3 2016

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

0805 PM     FUNNEL CLOUD     5 NE HAMBERG            47.82N 99.44W
08/03/2016                   WELLS              ND   TRAINED SPOTTER

            MULTIPLE REPORTS OF FUNNELS. .

&&

KS

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BISMARCK ND
842 PM CDT WED AUG 3 2016

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

0805 PM     FUNNEL CLOUD     5 NE HAMBERG            47.82N 99.44W
08/03/2016                   WELLS              ND   TRAINED SPOTTER

            MULTIPLE REPORTS OF FUNNELS. DID NOT SEE
            CONTACT ON GROUND. RAPID ROTATION, LASTED
            ABOUT 5 MINUTES. THE DURATION OF THE FUNNEL
            CLOUD EVENT WAS 5 MINUTES.

&&

KS

SPECIAL WEATHER STATEMENT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BISMARCK ND
1049 PM CDT WED AUG 3 2016

NDZ051-040445-
DICKEY ND-
1049 PM CDT WED AUG 3 2016

...A LINE OF STRONG THUNDERSTORMS WILL AFFECT DICKEY COUNTY UNTIL
1145 PM CDT...

AT 1049 PM CDT...STRONG THUNDERSTORMS WERE LOCATED ALONG A LINE
EXTENDING FROM 5 MILES SOUTH OF EDGELEY TO 6 MILES NORTHWEST OF
SPRING CREEK COLONY. MOVEMENT WAS EAST AT 40 MPH.

PENNY SIZE HAIL AND WIND GUSTS TO 50 MPH WILL BE POSSIBLE WITH THESE
STORMS.

LOCATIONS IMPACTED INCLUDE...
OAKES...ELLENDALE...FULLERTON...FORBES...LUDDEN...MONANGO...GUELPH...
MERRICOURT AND GLOVER.

VERY HEAVY RAINFALL IS ALSO OCCURRING WITH THESE STORMS...AND MAY LEAD
TO LOCALIZED FLOODING. DO NOT DRIVE YOUR VEHICLE THROUGH FLOODED
ROADWAYS.

&&

A TORNADO WATCH REMAINS IN EFFECT UNTIL 1100 PM CDT FOR SOUTHEASTERN
NORTH DAKOTA.

LAT...LON 4594 9901 4606 9901 4628 9879 4628 9801
      4593 9801
TIME...MOT...LOC 0349Z 268DEG 35KT 4628 9869 4596 9900

HAMILTON

SPECIAL WEATHER STATEMENT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BISMARCK ND
1102 PM CDT WED AUG 3 2016

NDZ048-040500-
LA MOURE ND-
1102 PM CDT WED AUG 3 2016

...A LINE OF STRONG THUNDERSTORMS WILL AFFECT EASTERN LAMOURE COUNTY
UNTIL MIDNIGHT CDT...

AT 1102 PM CDT...STRONG THUNDERSTORMS WERE LOCATED ALONG A LINE
EXTENDING FROM NEAR LITCHVILLE TO 7 MILES SOUTHEAST OF EDGELEY.
MOVEMENT WAS EAST AT 40 MPH.

PENNY SIZE HAIL AND WIND GUSTS TO 50 MPH WILL BE POSSIBLE WITH THESE
STORMS.

LOCATIONS IMPACTED INCLUDE...
EDGELEY...LAMOURE...MARION...VERONA...DICKEY...GRAND RAPIDS AND BERLIN.

VERY HEAVY RAINFALL IS ALSO OCCURRING WITH THESE STORMS...AND MAY LEAD
TO LOCALIZED FLOODING. DO NOT DRIVE YOUR VEHICLE THROUGH FLOODED
ROADWAYS.

&&

A SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH REMAINS IN EFFECT UNTIL 600 AM CDT FOR
SOUTHEASTERN NORTH DAKOTA.

LAT...LON 4628 9881 4663 9845 4663 9804 4628 9803
TIME...MOT...LOC 0402Z 271DEG 33KT 4661 9819 4628 9862

HAMILTON

SPECIAL WEATHER STATEMENT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BISMARCK ND
1143 PM CDT WED AUG 3 2016

NDZ051-040530-
DICKEY ND-
1143 PM CDT WED AUG 3 2016

...A LINE OF STRONG THUNDERSTORMS WILL AFFECT EASTERN DICKEY COUNTY
UNTIL 1230 AM CDT...

AT 1142 PM CDT...STRONG THUNDERSTORMS WERE LOCATED ALONG A LINE
EXTENDING FROM 7 MILES SOUTH OF VERONA TO 9 MILES NORTHWEST OF HECLA.
MOVEMENT WAS EAST AT 40 MPH.

PENNY SIZE HAIL AND WIND GUSTS TO 55 MPH WILL BE POSSIBLE WITH THESE
STORMS.

LOCATIONS IMPACTED INCLUDE...
OAKES...ELLENDALE...FULLERTON...LUDDEN...GLOVER AND GUELPH.

VERY HEAVY RAINFALL IS ALSO OCCURRING WITH THESE STORMS...AND MAY LEAD
TO LOCALIZED FLOODING. DO NOT DRIVE YOUR VEHICLE THROUGH FLOODED
ROADWAYS.

&&

A SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH REMAINS IN EFFECT UNTIL 600 AM CDT FOR
SOUTHEASTERN NORTH DAKOTA.

LAT...LON 4594 9867 4629 9831 4628 9801 4593 9801
TIME...MOT...LOC 0442Z 270DEG 34KT 4626 9802 4595 9833

HAMILTON