Special Weather Statement, NWS Bismarck, ND

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Bismarck ND
252 PM CDT SAT JUL 16 2016

.SHORT TERM...(This evening through Sunday)
Issued at 241 PM CDT Sat Jul 16 2016

Severe thunderstorms this afternoon and evening highlight the
short term forecast.

As of 1945 UTC, the previous QLCS has now morphed into a
supercell across Kidder County, with additional cells attempting
to develop south central and southwest in the vicinity of the
surface trough. This has generally been well depicted by the
HRRR/HRRRX through the day, especially their 18 UTC iterations.
The mesoscale environment is characterized by ML CAPE of 1500-2000
j/kg with effective deep layer shear of 35-45 kts perpendicular to
the boundary, supportive of continued discrete supercells. All
threats of severe weather are possible, including a possible
tornado or two given low LCLs and increasing low level helicity by
early evening. For western North Dakota, convection from Montanamay
cross the border around 00 UTC, however, uncertainty remains how
strong this convection will be.

.LONG TERM...(Sunday night through Saturday)
Issued at 241 PM CDT Sat Jul 16 2016

A warm up Tuesday through Thursday highlights the extended
forecast.

The 12 UTC ensemble and deterministic global and ensemble suites
are in agreement on a building upper level central CONUS high this
coming week, supporting a potential warm up into the 90s for most
locations Tuesday through Thursday.

&&

.AVIATION...(For the 18Z TAFS through 18Z Sunday afternoon)
Issued at 241 PM CDT Sat Jul 16 2016

Showers and thunderstorms are likely across western and central
North Dakota today. Some storms may be severe across southern
North Dakota today with large hail, damaging winds and LIFR
conditions. KBIS and KJMS are at most risk to be impacted by
severe storms. MVFR/IFR fog and stratus are possible at KBIS and
KJMS late tonight into Sunday morning.

&&

.BIS Watches/Warnings/Advisories...
NONE.
&&

SHORT TERM...AYD
LONG TERM...AYD
AVIATION...AYD

HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BISMARCK ND
228 PM CDT SAT JUL 16 2016

NDZ018>020-031>037-040>048-050-051-171930-
DUNN-MERCER-OLIVER-GOLDEN VALLEY-BILLINGS-STARK-MORTON-BURLEIGH-
KIDDER-STUTSMAN-SLOPE-HETTINGER-GRANT-BOWMAN-ADAMS-SIOUX-EMMONS-
LOGAN-LA MOURE-MCINTOSH-DICKEY-
228 PM CDT SAT JUL 16 2016 /128 PM MDT SAT JUL 16 2016/

THIS HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK IS FOR PORTIONS OF SOUTH CENTRAL
NORTH DAKOTA...SOUTHEAST NORTH DAKOTA AND SOUTHWEST NORTH DAKOTA.

.DAY ONE...THIS AFTERNOON AND TONIGHT

CHANCES FOR THUNDERSTORMS WILL CONTINUE THROUGH THE DAY INTO THE
EVENING. SOME OF THESE STORMS MAY BECOME SEVERE THIS AFTERNOON
AND EVENING. LARGE HAIL...DAMAGING WINDS...HEAVY RAIN AND A
TORNADO OR TWO MAY BE POSSIBLE.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...SUNDAY THROUGH FRIDAY

NEAR DAILY...MINIMAL CHANCES FOR THUNDERSTORMS WILL CONTINUE OVER
VARIOUS PARTS OF THE AREA THROUGH FRIDAY.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

SPOTTER ACTIVATION MAY BE NEEDED TODAY.

NDZ001>005-009>013-017-021>023-025-171930-
DIVIDE-BURKE-RENVILLE-BOTTINEAU-ROLETTE-WILLIAMS-MOUNTRAIL-WARD-
MCHENRY-PIERCE-MCKENZIE-MCLEAN-SHERIDAN-WELLS-FOSTER-
228 PM CDT SAT JUL 16 2016 /128 PM MDT SAT JUL 16 2016/

THIS HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK IS FOR PORTIONS OF NORTH CENTRAL
NORTH DAKOTA...NORTHWEST NORTH DAKOTA...SOUTH CENTRAL NORTH
DAKOTA AND SOUTHEAST NORTH DAKOTA.

.DAY ONE...THIS AFTERNOON AND TONIGHT

CHANCES FOR THUNDERSTORMS CONTINUE THROUGH TODAY INTO TONIGHT.
ALTHOUGH WIDESPREAD SEVERE WEATHER IS NOT ANTICIPATED...A FEW
STORMS COULD BECOME SEVERE THIS AFTERNOON INTO THIS EVENING WITH
LARGE HAIL...DAMAGING WIND GUSTS AND HEAVY RAIN.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...SUNDAY THROUGH FRIDAY

NEAR DAILY...MINIMAL CHANCES FOR THUNDERSTORMS WILL CONTINUE OVER
VARIOUS PARTS OF THE AREA THROUGH FRIDAY.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

SPOTTER ACTIVATION WILL NOT BE NEEDED.

PJA

SPECIAL WEATHER STATEMENT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BISMARCK ND
526 PM CDT SAT JUL 16 2016

NDZ023-025-162300-
WELLS ND-FOSTER ND-
526 PM CDT SAT JUL 16 2016

...A STRONG THUNDERSTORM WILL AFFECT NORTHWESTERN FOSTER AND EAST
CENTRAL WELLS COUNTIES UNTIL 600 PM CDT...

AT 526 PM CDT...DOPPLER RADAR WAS TRACKING A STRONG THUNDERSTORM 6
MILES EAST OF CATHAY...OR 11 MILES NORTHWEST OF CARRINGTON...MOVING
EAST AT 25 MPH.

PENNY SIZE HAIL AND WIND GUSTS TO 50 MPH WILL BE POSSIBLE WITH THIS
STORM.

LOCATIONS IMPACTED INCLUDE...
BARLOW.

FREQUENT CLOUD TO GROUND LIGHTNING IS OCCURRING WITH THIS STORM.
LIGHTNING CAN STRIKE 10 MILES AWAY FROM A THUNDERSTORM. SEEK SHELTER
INSIDE A BUILDING OR VEHICLE.

&&

LAT...LON 4747 9883 4748 9922 4752 9935 4762 9937
      4763 9927 4759 9926 4759 9886
TIME...MOT...LOC 2226Z 263DEG 23KT 4758 9928

HEINERT

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BISMARCK ND
533 PM CDT SAT JUL 16 2016

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

0423 PM     HAIL             SOLEN                   46.39N 100.80W
07/16/2016  M1.75 INCH       SIOUX              ND   TRAINED SPOTTER

            ESTIMATED WIND GUSTS TO 60 MPH.

&&

JNS

SPECIAL WEATHER STATEMENT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BISMARCK ND
602 PM CDT SAT JUL 16 2016

NDZ025-162345-
FOSTER ND-
602 PM CDT SAT JUL 16 2016

...A STRONG THUNDERSTORM WILL AFFECT FOSTER COUNTY UNTIL 645 PM
CDT...

AT 602 PM CDT...DOPPLER RADAR WAS TRACKING A STRONG THUNDERSTORM 6
MILES NORTHEAST OF CARRINGTON...MOVING EAST AT 25 MPH.

NICKEL SIZE HAIL AND WIND GUSTS TO 50 MPH WILL BE POSSIBLE WITH THIS
STORM.

LOCATIONS IMPACTED INCLUDE...
CARRINGTON...GLENFIELD...GRACE CITY...MCHENRY AND JUANITA.

THIS STORM MAY INTENSIFY...SO BE CERTAIN TO MONITOR LOCAL RADIO
STATIONS AND AVAILABLE TELEVISION STATIONS FOR ADDITIONAL INFORMATION
AND POSSIBLE WARNINGS FROM THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE.

A SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH REMAINS IN EFFECT UNTIL 700 PM CDT FOR
SOUTHEASTERN NORTH DAKOTA.

LAT...LON 4744 9916 4759 9912 4759 9850 4732 9850
TIME...MOT...LOC 2302Z 279DEG 24KT 4753 9903

HEINERT

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BISMARCK ND
616 PM CDT SAT JUL 16 2016

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

0130 PM     HEAVY RAIN       4 ESE PINGREE           47.13N 98.83W
07/16/2016  M3.20 INCH       STUTSMAN           ND   PUBLIC

            . THE DURATION OF THE HEAVY RAIN EVENT WAS
            40 MINUTES.

&&

KS

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BISMARCK ND
620 PM CDT SAT JUL 16 2016

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

0130 PM     HEAVY RAIN       5 N WILTON              47.23N 100.78W
07/16/2016  M3.20 INCH       MCLEAN             ND   PUBLIC

            . THE DURATION OF THE HEAVY RAIN EVENT WAS
            40 MINUTES.

&&

KS

<!doctype html>
<html lang="en">
<head>
  <meta charset="utf-8">
  <meta name="viewport" content="width=device-width, initial-scale=1">
  <title>Service Notice</title>
  <link rel="stylesheet" href="index.css">
</head>
<body>
  <main class="wrap">
    <section class="card" role="status" aria-live="polite">
      <div class="status" id="status">Temporary Notice</div>
      <h1 id="headline">This service is currently unavailable.</h1>
      <p id="message1">
        The site you requested is temporarily down for maintenance or an unexpected outage.
      </p>
      <p id="message2">
        Please try again in a few minutes.
      </p>
      <p class="small" id="detail">
        If you are an administrator, restore upstream service and remove the redirect/fallback rule when normal operations resume.
      </p>
    </section>
  </main>
  <script src="index.js"></script>
</body>
</html>