Special Weather Statement, NWS Bismarck, ND

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Bismarck ND
325 PM CDT WED JUL 6 2016

.SHORT TERM...(This evening through Thursday)
Issued at 325 PM CDT Wed Jul 6 2016

The focus of the short term forecast period through Thursday night
is on the potential for showers and storms, including determining
the extent and amount of rain that will fall.

There is a risk of severe thunderstorms in southwestern ND through
the early evening. There remains uncertainty regarding the amount
of destabilization that will occur in southwestern ND as surface
observations through 20 UTC show only slow and fragmented moisture
advection, with some pockets of sub-50 F dewpoints still in place.
However, vigorous convection has developed upstream in eastern MT
and is propagating toward southwest ND. RAP guidance calls for 500
to 1000 J/kg of MLCAPE developing across southwest ND if dewpoints
do manage to rise further into the 50s F. Combined with effective
bulk wind differences around 50 kt, we had enough confidence in a
severe risk to issue a severe thunderstorm watch in collaboration
with SPC. We considered adding Stark and Hettinger Counties into
the initial watch, too, but chose to refrain from doing so at this
point given uncertainties about the downstream destabilization,
especially once stronger convection initiates across SD and
potentially further disrupts moisture advection. We will watch
trends and may add those counties into the watch later if
necessary.

In general, we expect the intensity of convection to diminish the
further east it propagates, particularly if the aforementioned
moisture disruption occurs. Recent HRRR and ESRL-HRRR simulations
support that notion, though they do suggest showers and sub-severe
storms will move all the way through south central ND during the
evening.

This wave of convection was incited by a lead shortwave trough in
advance of the stronger wave and mid-level low viewed on moisture
channel imagery over northwest MT this afternoon. The 12 UTC GFS,
NAM, and GFS remained consistent in shifting that much stronger
core of dynamic forcing across ND late tonight and Thursday. We
did note a subtle trend in the global model consensus toward a
further-northwest track of the mid-level 700 to 500 MB low as it
tracks across the state, which does increase uncertainty in the
amount of precipitation that may fall across southwestern ND as
a mid-level dry slot may move across that area rather quickly in
the daytime. Confidence in beneficial rainfall remains greatest
over north central and east central ND from Minot to Jamestown.
That's the area in which the 12 UTC multi-model consensus still
supports 0.50 inches or more of rain during the day Thursday. We
expect some thunderstorms, too, given MUCAPE of 500-1000 J/kg on
model-forecast soundings. Interestingly, the slightly further
northwest track of the mid-level wave and resultant shift in the
mid-level dry slot may allow greater destabilization to occur in
the James River valley than earlier anticipated. Point soundings
taken at Jamestown from the 12 UTC NAM support MUCAPE to nearly
1500 J/kg, and despite messy wind profiles which yield hodograph
structures that favor multi-cell modes, the soundings are loose
analogs to marginally-severe storms. Thus, a conditional risk of
strong to severe storms exists in the James River valley during
the afternoon hours Thursday if enough diabatic heating occurs
amid cloud breaks to destabilize the boundary layer. Confidence
in that occurring is modest at best, though.

The chance of precipitation will quickly wind down on Thursday
night as the shortwave trough axis moves east of the area.

.LONG TERM...(Thursday night through Wednesday)
Issued at 325 PM CDT Wed Jul 6 2016

Main highlight continues to center on a potent closed mid/upper low
across the intermountain west Sunday, then progressing northeast
slides into southeast Montana Monday. The track of the low through
18z Monday very similar between the GFS and ECMWF. However
thereafter, the GFS is slower with a northeast movement into
southeast Saskatchewan and southern Manitoba Monday through
Wednesday.

Prior the weekend, a transitory mid and upper level ridge slides
across western and central ND Friday resulting in a dry day. This
will be short lived as a brief period of southeast to southerly
return flow sets up in western ND Friday night, then translates
intermountain west ND Saturday. A couple of mid level shortwaves
ejecting out from the aforementioned upper low will shift through
Saturday into Saturday night creating some chances for showers and
thunderstorms.

However, the severe thunderstorm potential trend continues by SPC
for Day 5, Sunday. This depends on the placement of an inverted
surface trough and associated low pressure which is forecast to
reside in eastern Montana Sunday into Sunday night. Strong low level
jet of 50kt to 60kt at 850mb is forecast to develop across western
and central ND Sunday night. Sample GFS NSharp soundings across
central ND Sunday night shows an elevated mixed layer lowering to
approximately 4000ft to 4500 AGL. Elevated convection could become
quite vigorous given the strong moisture advection in combination
with a lead shortwave scooting north from South Dakota.

Monday through Wednesday will be dictated by how the upper low
migrates across southern Canada as to the threat of showers and
possible thunderstorms across mainly northern North Dakota. This
could be farther north or south depending on the track of the upper
low. The pattern does favor breezy to windy conditions for much of
the time during the Monday through Wednesday timeframe.

&&

.AVIATION...(For the 18Z TAFS through 18Z Thursday afternoon)
Issued at 325 PM CDT Wed Jul 6 2016

Showers and a few thunderstorms will gradually spread over
western and central North Dakota this afternoon, from eastern
Montana and northwestern South Dakota. Expect more numerous
showers with embedded thunderstorms in the overnight and morning
hours. VFR conditions should prevail until around 12z Thursday,
when ceilings at KISN/KDIK/KMOT will likely lower into MVFR
categories. Isolated IFR visibilities and gusty winds cannot be
ruled out under any heavier thunderstorms cores.

&&

.BIS Watches/Warnings/Advisories...
NONE.
&&

SHORT TERM...CJS
LONG TERM...KS
AVIATION...ZH

HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BISMARCK ND
332 PM CDT WED JUL 6 2016

NDZ031>033-040-041-043-044-072045-
GOLDEN VALLEY-BILLINGS-STARK-SLOPE-HETTINGER-BOWMAN-ADAMS-
232 PM MDT WED JUL 6 2016

THIS HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK IS FOR PORTIONS OF SOUTHWEST NORTH
DAKOTA.

.DAY ONE...THIS AFTERNOON AND TONIGHT

A FEW STRONG TO SEVERE STORMS WILL MOVE ACROSS SOUTHWEST NORTH
DAKOTA THIS AFTERNOON AND EARLY EVENING. LARGE HAIL AND DAMAGING
WINDS ARE POSSIBLE WITH A FEW OF THE STORMS.

THERE IS A CHANCE OF STORMS TONIGHT...BUT NO SEVERE WEATHER IS
EXPECTED OVERNIGHT.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...THURSDAY THROUGH TUESDAY

THERE IS A CHANCE OF THUNDERSTORMS THURSDAY AND THEN AGAIN
SATURDAY THROUGH TUESDAY. CURRENT INDICATIONS ARE THAT THERE IS A
CHANCE OF SEVERE STORMS ON SUNDAY AND SUNDAY NIGHT.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

WEATHER SPOTTERS MAY BE NEEDED THIS AFTERNOON AND EARLY EVENING.

NDZ025-037-047-048-050-051-072045-
FOSTER-STUTSMAN-LOGAN-LA MOURE-MCINTOSH-DICKEY-
332 PM CDT WED JUL 6 2016

THIS HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK IS FOR PORTIONS OF SOUTHEAST NORTH
DAKOTA.

.DAY ONE...THIS AFTERNOON AND TONIGHT

THERE IS A CHANCE OF THUNDERSTORMS THIS AFTERNOON AND TONIGHT.
NO SEVERE WEATHER IS EXPECTED.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...THURSDAY THROUGH TUESDAY

THERE IS A CHANCE OF STRONG AND ISOLATED SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ON
THURSDAY.

THERE IS THEN A CHANCE OF THUNDERSTORMS SATURDAY THROUGH TUESDAY.
CURRENT INDICATIONS ARE THAT THERE IS A CHANCE OF SEVERE STORMS ON
SUNDAY AND SUNDAY NIGHT.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

SPOTTER ACTIVATION WILL NOT BE NEEDED.

NDZ001>005-009>013-017>023-034>036-042-045-046-072045-
DIVIDE-BURKE-RENVILLE-BOTTINEAU-ROLETTE-WILLIAMS-MOUNTRAIL-WARD-
MCHENRY-PIERCE-MCKENZIE-DUNN-MERCER-OLIVER-MCLEAN-SHERIDAN-WELLS-
MORTON-BURLEIGH-KIDDER-GRANT-SIOUX-EMMONS-
332 PM CDT WED JUL 6 2016 /232 PM MDT WED JUL 6 2016/

THIS HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK IS FOR PORTIONS OF NORTH CENTRAL
NORTH DAKOTA...NORTHWEST NORTH DAKOTA...SOUTH CENTRAL NORTH
DAKOTA AND SOUTHWEST NORTH DAKOTA.

.DAY ONE...THIS AFTERNOON AND TONIGHT

THERE IS A CHANCE OF THUNDERSTORMS THIS AFTERNOON AND TONIGHT.
NO SEVERE WEATHER IS EXPECTED.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...THURSDAY THROUGH TUESDAY

THERE IS A CHANCE OF THUNDERSTORMS THURSDAY AND THEN AGAIN
SATURDAY THROUGH TUESDAY. CURRENT INDICATIONS ARE THAT THERE IS
A CHANCE OF SEVERE STORMS ON SUNDAY AND SUNDAY NIGHT.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

SPOTTER ACTIVATION WILL NOT BE NEEDED.

CJS

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